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 Post subject: March 29th Monday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +3.10
PostPosted: Tue Mar 30, 2010 9:10 am 
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Dow At New 18-Month Highs
Dow at new 18-month highs
By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
March 29, 2010: 6:41 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks gained Monday, pushing the Dow to its highest point in a year-and-a-half, after a report showing a rise in consumer spending added to bets about the strength of the economic recovery.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 45 points, or 0.4%, ending at 10,895.86, the highest point since Sept. 26, 2008, when it closed at 11,143.13. The S&P 500 index (SPX) gained 7 points, or 0.6%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 9 points, or 0.4%.

"It looks like we have a nice, uplifting session, fueled by some end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing in a holiday-shortened week," said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co.

The first quarter ends Wednesday and currently the Dow is up 4%, the S&P 500 is up 4.6% and the Nasdaq is up 5.6%. Dickson said that when stocks have had a positive quarter, end-of-quarter machinations tend to be positive, as managers look to play catch up.

Investors are also looking to get in ahead of a long weekend, with all financial markets closed Friday for Good Friday.

Stock gains were pretty broad based Monday, with 23 of 30 Dow components rising, led by Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500). Energy and other dollar-traded commodity stocks rose, initially responding to a weaker greenback. However, the sector maintained its advance even as the dollar seesawed.

The euro has strengthened and global market have gotten a lift over the last few trading sessions as worries about Greece defaulting on its debt have waned. Last week, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreed to a loan package that Greece or other nations could access, should the need arise.

On Monday, Greece said it was moving forward with plans to issue a new seven-year bond.

Stocks have risen in six of the last seven weeks as investors have begun to factor in a stronger economic recovery, following a rough period between mid-January and early February. During that stretch, the S&P 500 lost over 9% and the Dow and Nasdaq lost more than 7% as investors worried that global debt woes and increased U.S. regulation of banks and financial markets might constrain growth.

Economy: Personal spending rose 0.3% in February, after rising 0.4% in January, the Commerce Department reported Monday. It was the fifth month in a row that spending rose. Results were in line with forecasts, according to a Briefing.com survey of economists.

Personal income was unchanged in February after rising 0.3% in January. Economists thought income would rise 0.1% in the month.

Company news: The Treasury Department said Monday that it is moving closer to selling its 27% stake in Citigroup, but didn't provide details about the timeline of any sale.

The government owns 7.7 million Citigroup shares, having acquired a controlling interest in the company after providing a $45 billion bailout in fall 2008 amid the height of the credit crisis. Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) shares fell 3%.

Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) sold Volvo cars to Chinese automaker Zhejiang Geely Holding Group for $1.8 billion, the companies said Sunday. The deal is the largest purchase in history by a Chinese car manufacturer, but falls short of the $6.4 billion Ford paid for Volvo in 1999.

Avnet (AVT, Fortune 500) will buy Bell Microproducts (BELM) in an all-cash deal valued at $594 million including the assumption of debt. Avnet distributes electronic components and Bell distributes data storage and other computer component products. Avnet rose just short of 5% and Bell Microproducts rose 28%.
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The dollar and commodities: The dollar gained versus the euro and the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for May delivery rose $2.17 to settle at $82.17 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for May delivery rose $6.10 to $1,111.50 per ounce.

Bonds: Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 3.86% from 3.85% late Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

World markets: In overseas trading, European markets ended higher. London's FTSE rose 0.1%, France's CAC 40 rose 0.3% and Germany's DAX added 0.6%. Asian markets were also mixed, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index up 2.2% and Japan's Nikkei index down 0.1%.

Global trading did not seem to be impacted by reports that suicide bombers set off explosions that hit two Moscow subway stations during rush hour Monday morning, killing at least 35 people.

Image

Yahoo! Finance

4:15 pm : In contrast to the past couple of sessions, stocks managed to maintain solid gains into the close on Monday. The advance was broad based, but financials lagged from the start.

A dip by the dollar helped bring buyers into the stock market and keep the bullish trend intact. The greenback fell 0.4% against competing currencies; it was never able to muster an actual gain against the basket.

The dollar's decline proved particularly beneficial for energy stocks, which led for the entire session and settled with a 1.8% gain. Higher oil prices helped the energy space; contracts closed pit trade with crude oil priced 2.7% higher at $82.16 per barrel. Though no specific price was given, an OPEC chief stated that oil prices will not be allowed to rise too high, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Oil wasn't the only commodity to attract buyers, though. Broad-based interest for natural resources spurred the CRB Commodity Index to a 2.1% gain, which was its best single-session percentage advance in more than one month.

Strength among commodities and basic materials helped diversified metals and mining stocks spike a collective 4.7% higher. That sort of support helped the broader materials sector outperform, though it eased back a bit to finish with a 0.9% gain, which was even with what health care and industrials scored.

Though the stock market traded with relatively steady gains for most of the session, financials oscillated between positive and negative territory, lagging all the while. Still, the sector managed to finish with a 0.2% gain as it struggled to hold near the 52-week high that it set last week. Many market pundits have long pointed to the financial sector as a necessary source of support for continued gains in the broader market.

Economic data is also a key catalyst for trade, but the latest dose did little for participants. According to figures, consumption expenditures in February increased 0.3%, as expected, while core personal consumption expenditures were flat, which was not too much of a surprise since the consensus had called for a tepid 0.1% increase. Total and disposable income posted no growth in February -- a 0.1% increase had been expected.

The lack of market-moving data and the absence of any major corporate news items made for moderate participation, such that trading volume on the NYSE failed to eclipse 1 billion shares. DJ30 +45.50 NASDAQ +9.23 NQ100 +0.4% R2K +0.4% SP400 +0.8% SP500 +6.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1539/1.88 bln/1115 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2097/944 mln/944

3:35 pm : Equities are pulling back from their best levels of the afternoon.

Broad-based strength was seen in commodities this session. A weak dollar exacerbated today's move to the upside. Industrial commodities (+2.1%), energy commodities (+1.9%) and precious metals (+1.6%) led the move higher.

May copper futures closed 3.9% higher at $3.53 per pound. Declining inventory levels, in the face of strong demand, were the primary catalyst.

Silver futures also saw substantial gains. May silver trend higher throughout the session. It closed up 2.8% at $17.38 per ounce. Gains gold futures were limited, though. April gold closed 0.5% higher at $1110.30 per ounce.

Crude oil futures rallied to the $82.50 level in the morning. They traded relatively flat for the remainder of the session. The May contract closed 2.7% higher at $82.16 per barrel.

Natural gas futures were one of only two commodities in the CRB Commodity Index to trade lower this session (the other being orange juice). Despite being off nearly 40% from January highs, May natural gas closed down less than a penny at $3.92 per MMBtu. DJ30 +50.48 NASDAQ +8.14 SP500 +6.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1502/1.56 bln/1161 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2027/703 mln/989

3:00 pm : The stock market has made a modest recovery from its recent dip, such that stocks are now back in line with the levels that had been seen for most of the afternoon.

Participation remains unimpressive. Given the current pace of trade, it is quite possible that share volume on the NYSE will not exceed 1 billion shares this session. Trading volume on the NYSE during the course of the past 50 sessions has averaged 1.12 billion shares per session. DJ30 +52.15 NASDAQ +7.79 SP500 +6.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1424/1.42 bln/1206 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1983/648 mln/1043

2:30 pm : The S&P 500 has slipped to an afternoon low, while the Nasdaq is at its worst level of the session. Both indices remain in positive territory, though.

Small-cap stocks have also come under a recent bout of pressure. As such, the Russell 2000 is up fractionally after it had been up as much as 0.7% at its session high. Mid-caps in the S&P 400 have managed to hold on to a 0.5% gain after they drifted down from their session high, which was marked by a 0.8% gain. DJ30 +44.74 NASDAQ +5.28 SP500 +5.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1377/1.29 bln/1268 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1918/600 mln/1085

2:00 pm : Trade remains rather quiet this afternoon. Still, the mood remains moderately upbeat as advancing issues outnumber decliners by more than 2-to-1 in the S&P 500.

Financials and tech stocks are among the most actively traded issues this session, but both sectors are currently flat. By volume, Citigroup (C 4.18, -0.14) and Bank of America (BAC 17.92, +0.08) are the two most actively traded names this session. Close behind are Intel (INTC 22.31, +0.07), Cisco (CSCO 26.52, +0.05), and Microsoft (MSFT 29.65, -0.02). DJ30 +40.58 NASDAQ +7.39 SP500 +5.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1487/1.18 bln/1157 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1998/535 mln/1013

1:30 pm : Stocks have entered into a sideways drift that has left the broader market's gains intact. However, it has also left the financial sector and consumer discretionary sector in negative territory, each with a 0.1% loss.

Health care stocks have attracted considerable support this session. The sector is up 0.9% at the moment. Among its primary sources of strength, managed care (+1.2%) and health care tech (+1.3%) are up the most. DJ30 +47.69 NASDAQ +9.30 SP500 +6.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1547/1.07 bln/1078 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2022/497 mln/961

1:00 pm : A dip by the dollar has brought buyers to the stock market. Natural resource plays have been among their favorites this session.

Though there haven't been any major trading catalysts, this session's tone has been positive since the start. The mood has been helped by a decline in the dollar, which currently lags a collection of competing currencies by 0.2%. It was down nearly 0.6% in the early morning.

Natural resource plays have garnered the most support amid the dollar's decline. As such, energy stocks are up 1.7% and materials stocks are up 0.9%. While the pair has provided leadership to the broader market, the S&P 500 has been unable to sustain any gain past last Friday's high.

Financials have been a bit of drag this session. The sector is down 0.2% after it recently reclaimed a portion of its losses. Pressure against the sector comes on the heels of its 2.1% weekly gain.

Only consumer discretionary stocks fared better last week; they climbed 2.4% during the previous five sessions. Amid weakness in retailers (-0.4%), consumer discretionary plays make up the only other sector in the red this session. As a group, they are down 0.3%, at the moment.

There were no real surprises in the latest dose of economic data. Personal income for February was flat when a tepid 0.1% increase had been expected. Personal spending for February increased 0.3%, as expected. Core personal consumption expenditures were expected to increase just 0.1%, but they were unchanged for the second straight month. DJ30 +36.36 NASDAQ +8.42 SP500 +5.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1511/978 mln/1085 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1973/455 mln/994

12:35 pm : Financials have fallen back into the red. They now trade with a 0.2% loss. The sector has been a laggard for the entire session.

Meanwhile, the broader market has moved another leg lower, but technical support has kept the scope of the slide in check. Overall action remains lackluster, though. DJ30 +49.80 NASDAQ +11.65 SP500 +6.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1560/898 mln/1028 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2049/420 mln/909

12:00 pm : Still unable to surpass this past Friday's high, stocks have eased back a bit in recent action. Gains remain solid and broad-based, though.

Commodities are also up with broad-based strength. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index is up 2.0%. DJ30 +52.98 NASDAQ +14.09 SP500 +6.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1535/798 mln/1009 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2027/370 mln/915

11:30 am : The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have managed to make their way to fresh session highs. The Nasdaq has also put together a strong bounce, but it hasn't quite eclipsed the levels that it set earlier this morning.

The stock market's recent move has been broad based, but materials stocks (+1.3%) and energy stocks (+1.8%) continue to fuel the drive.

However, shares of auto maker Ford (F 13.70, -0.16) have stalled. The company announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell Volvo Car and related assets for some $1.8 billion in a mix of note and cash. Meanwhile, a UAW benefits trust has commenced a second public offering of more than 360 million warrants that gives owners a right to purchase shares of Ford common stock at an exercise price of $9.20 per share. DJ30 +57.28 NASDAQ +13.94 SP500 +7.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1571/683 mln/936 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2069/325 mln/853

11:00 am : Action among stocks has been choppy thus far. Amid such action financials have made their way back into positive territory to trade with a 0.1% gain. Meanwhile, consumer discretionary stocks have dipped into the red to trade with a 0.1% loss as shares of retailers (-0.2%) retreat.

Energy stocks continue to outperform. The sector is now up 1.7% as contract prices for energy-related commodities continue to climb. Within the energy sector, all 40 members are in higher ground. Southwestern Energy (SWN 40.74, +3.04), Massey Energy (MEE 53.26, +2.54), and Pebody Energy (BTU 46.38, +1.79) are the primary leaders in the bunch. DJ30 +46.63 NASDAQ +11.61 SP500 +6.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1510/550 mln/939 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1962/262 mln/898

10:30 am : Weakness in the dollar index is providing price support to most commodities this morning, with energy and silver showing gains of 2% or more.

May crude oil traded modestly higher overnight before breaking out around the open of pit trading. Near the open, crude rallied ~$1.70 per barrel in less than an hour, to fresh morning highs of $82.25 per barrel. In current trade, crude remains near those highs at $82.02 per barrel, up 2.5%.

May natural gas fell back into negative territory and near overnight lows around 8:30am ET. However, this was short-lived as natural gas quickly reversed and rallied to new session highs of $4.02 per MMBtu. Currently, the energy component is at $4.01 per MMBtu, up 2.0%.

April gold has traded in positive territory for the majority of today's session. Gold hit highs of $1114.10 per ounce, and is up a modest 0.4% at $1108.70 per ounce. Silver is showing notable strength this morning and has been in the black all session so far. It hit highs of $17.32 per ounce in recent trade after steadily trending higher in the session. Currently, silver is near current highs, up 2.2% at $17.28 per ounce. DJ30 +31.51 NASDAQ +10.65 SP500 +4.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 271.8/441.5 mln/135.1 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 106.8/190.1 mln/79.6

10:00 am : This morning's ascent recently stalled at this past Friday's intraday high. The stock market has since surrendered a small portion of its gains, but it remains well into positive territory.

While the broader market continues to sport a modest gain, financials have retreated into negative territory. The sector is down 0.1%, which makes it the only major sector to trade with a loss. Financials are coming off of a 2.1% weekly gain.

Of the major sectors, that was second only to consumer discretionary stocks, which scored a 2.4% gain. Consumer discretionary plays are flat at the moment.

Advancing Sectors: Energy (+1.2%), Materials (+0.9%), Health Care (+0.5%), Tech (+0.4%), Telecom (+0.4%), Utilities (+0.4%), Industrials (+0.4%), Consumer Staples (+0.3%)
Declining Sectors: Financials (-0.1%)
Unchanged: Consumer Discretionary DJ30 +24.79 NASDAQ +8.97 SP500 +3.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1538/217 mln/735 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2072/104 mln/645

09:45 am : The stock market has jumped out to a solid, broad-based gain in the first few minutes of trade, but natural resource plays have garnered the most support. As such, the energy sector and materials sector are both up 1.0%.

The energy sector has been helped by strength among drillers (+2.4%) and explorers (+1.8%). A 2.7% increase in oil prices to $82.15 per barrel has also helped. Meanwhile, the materials sector has been supported by diversified metals (+2.2%) and steel stocks (+1.6%).

Financials currently lag the broader market. The sector is up just 0.2% as shares of diversified banks (-0.4%) slip to a modest loss. DJ30 +51.54 NASDAQ +15.41 SP500 +6.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1451/111 mln/654 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1852/56 mln/538

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.60. A modestly higher start still looks to be in order even though stock futures have drifted off of their morning highs. The descent comes as the dollar trims its loss so that it now lags a basket of foreign currencies by 0.2% -- it had been down nearly 0.6% at its early morning low. The dollar's dip has come primarily as a result of strength in the euro and British pound. While the pair of currencies from across the pond has found support, stocks on the European continent are currently mixed. The bourses have been unable to sustain gains despite news that economic sentiment in the European Union improved during March and continued efforts by Greece to attract funds through Bond auctions. There is also news that analysts at S&P maintained an AAA rating on the United Kindom. An offsetting factor to that item is that the analysts kept a negative outlook on the UK. Meanwhile, a government researcher from China said that his country's economy will reach economic growth of 12% this quarter, according to Reuters. The latest dose of data in the U.S. was lackluster as personal income for February was flat, the 0.3% increase in spending proved in-line with expectations, and core monthly expenditures were flat.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.60. U.S stock futures still sport a lead over fair value, but they have drifted off of their morning highs. Action in Europe is now mixed despite news that economic sentiment in the European Union improved in March to what a commissioner said is close to its long-term average. In other news, analysts at S&P maintained their negative outlook on the United Kingdom, but affirmed its AAA rating. The British pound is solidly higher against the buck, but Britain's FTSE is down 0.1% at the moment. BP PLC (BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) are primary sources of weakness at the moment. France's CAC is flat at the moment. Advancing issues have a slight edge over decliners in the CAC, but energy giant Total (TOT) is down considerably. Germany's DAX has managed to put together a 0.6% gain as its advancers take a near 3-to-1 lead over declining issues. Siemens (SI) is presently a primary source of strength. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.5%, but Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.1% as it backed off of an 18-month high that was hit last week. However, losses were limited. The Wall Street Journal reported that Toyota (TM) said its global production jumped in February from a year earlier, as a low basis of comparison offset the impact of reduced output in response to a world-wide vehicle recall. Specifically, Toyota manufactured 655,180 vehicles in February world-wide. That was up 83% year-over-year, according to the article. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng added 0.9%. The launch of mainland's stock index futures market helped boost shares. Financial plays were among the better performers. China Construction Bank was helped after it reported a surge in its quarterly profit. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 2.1% higher. According to a government researcher in a Reuters article, China's annual economic growth will reach 12% this quarter.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.60. There weren't any real surprises to the latest dose of data. Personal income for February was flat after an upwardly revised 0.3% increase for the prior month. Economists, on average, had expected a tepid 0.1% increase for February. Personal spending for February increased 0.3%, as expected. Spending for January was revised downward to reflect a 0.4% increase. Monthly core personal consumption expenditures were unchanged for the second straight month. They were expected to increase just 0.1% month-over-month. Stock futures continue to point to a modestly higher start for this session.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.10. Stock futures are up as the dollar loses ground to the euro and British pound amid news that analysts at S&P affirmed an AAA rating on the United Kingdom. A negative outlook on the UK also remains in place, though. Europe's major bourses trade with varied gains at the moment. Asia's markets saw mixed action, but China's Shanghai Composite climbed more than 2%. According to reports, China's economic growth will hit 12% this quarter. A key component of first quarter U.S. data is due at the bottom of the hour with the release of personal income and spending figures for February. After a 0.5% spending increase for January, personal consumption growth is expected to slow to a 0.3% increase for February. Income is expected to increase just 0.1%, as it did in January.

06:26 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.60.

06:26 am : Nikkei...10986.47...-9.90...-0.10%. Hang Seng...21237.43...+184.30...+0.90%.

06:26 am : FTSE...5713.63...+10.60...+0.20%. DAX...6162.14...+42.00...+0.70%.

Special thanks to Yahoo! Finance and CNNMoney for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

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