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 Post subject: March 26th Friday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +6.70
PostPosted: Sat Mar 27, 2010 7:43 am 
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Trade Journal By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, although this journal contains advertisements involving my trade methods, it does contain useful trading tips a few times per week. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips that can improve your trading and understand that profitable trading involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader that's the same as my user name on twitter.

Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=72&t=482.

Quote:
Today's results are 8 wins : 5 losses : 1 breakeven. Looking at the numbers only implies I had a tough trading day. However, in hindsight, the profit level was low because of a missed trade opportunity when the market was reacting to breaking negative news about N. Korea sinking a S. Korean naval ship. The missed trade opportunity was a Short signal soon after the news report.

Trading Tip: Fixed profit targets have a major flaw in that they are based upon the price action before or at entry, In contrast, variable profit targets are based upon the price action after entry and that makes them less counter productive in comparison to fixed profit targets.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader


In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).

http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, if you're interested in having free access to one of my profitable trade strategies along with earning extra income with little effort...join my referral program @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ReferralProgram.htm

My Trading Performance: +6.70 points in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures
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A Mixed Friday, But Stocks Up For The Week
By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
March 26, 2010: 6:31 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks closed mixed Friday, ending another up week, as investors considered the Greek bailout package, reports of a naval conflict between North and South Korea and a weaker U.S. dollar.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added a few points. The S&P 500 index (SPX) was little changed. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost a few points.

Stocks rose through the early afternoon after European leaders agreed to a bailout package for Greece and other debt-plagued euro zone nations, cooling fears of a default that would roil global markets. The Greece news overshadowed a report that showed the economy grew at a slower pace than initially thought in the fourth quarter of last year.

But reports of a conflict between North and South Korea may have caused some stock selling. Reports said an explosion tore a hole in a South Korean vessel in the disputed waters near North Korea, and South Korean officials were investigating whether it was an attack from the North.

However, the market may have been primed for a pullback anyway after having hit 18-month highs on Wednesday.

The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 have all risen in six of the last seven weeks.

Dollar drops on Greek aid package: Worries that Greece might default on its debt and kick off a broader debt crisis in Europe have dragged on the euro, leaving it at a 10-month low versus the dollar earlier this week. But news of the bailout lifted the European currency.

The dollar's weakness versus both the euro and yen Friday gave a boost to dollar-traded commodity stocks, such as Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500), the Dow's biggest gainers Friday.

Big multinational stocks that do a lot of business overseas also rose, as tends to be the case when the dollar is weaker.

Financial shares were also among the day's gainers, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and Travelers (TRV, Fortune 500) rising on the Dow.

But Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) and other select technology shares were weaker, dragging on the Nasdaq.

Stocks ended little changed Thursday as a late-session bounce in the dollar sapped the strength out of a rally that had pushed the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq near new 18-month highs.

However, the trend has been largely to the upside over the last few weeks, with the Dow industrials nearing 11,000, a key psychological level.
0:00 /4:25Downside of health care reform

Greece: The European Union and the International Monetary Fund agreed to a joint program that would make cheap loans available should Greece or other euro zone nations be unable to raise them on their own.

The deal, reached at the European Union summit in Brussels, would involve euro zone nations setting aside funds based on their GDP and population, meaning Germany will fund the biggest portion of the bill. The IMF will also contribute.

Greece said at the end of last year that its budget deficit was 12.7% of its GDP, far beyond the 3% that the EU allows. The country has announced plans to cut costs - including lowering government salaries and raising the retirement age - but has had trouble paying off its debts and securing additional financing.

Economy: Fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth was revised down to an annual rate of 5.6% from the previously reported 5.9%, the government reported Friday morning. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought GDP growth would hold steady at 5.9%.

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment rose to 73.6 in March from 72.5 earlier in the month. Economists thought it would rise to 73, on average.

Twenty-seven states reported rising unemployment rates in February, down from 30 states in January, according to state-by-state unemployment figures released Friday morning.

Company news: After the close Thursday, Oracle (ORCL, Fortune 500) reported weaker earnings that beat forecasts and higher revenue that also topped expectations. Shares slipped 1.3% Friday.

Research in Motion (RIMM) rose after JPMorgan Chase reportedly upgraded the stock, saying that 2010 will see a broad adoption of mobile computers. Palm (PALM) rose in tandem.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners edged losers by a narrow margin on volume of 1.025 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers by a slim margin on volume of 2.26 billion shares.
Obama: Mortgage help for jobless

Commodities: U.S. light crude oil for May delivery fell 53 cents to settle at $80 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for May delivery rose $11.30 to settle at $1,105.40 per ounce.

Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.89% from 3.90% late Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

World markets: In overseas trading, European markets fell. London's FTSE lost 0.4%, France's CAC 40 slipped 0.3% and Germany's DAX eased 0.2%. Asian markets ended higher, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index up 1.3% and Japan's Nikkei index up 1.6%.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Today's flat session capped off a choppy week, with the end result being a weekly gain of +0.6% in S&P 500. Stocks had continued their bullish trend during the first part of the week, but a sharp intraday reversal yesterday, and another intraday pullback today, pared a good portion of the week's gains. Although yesterday's weakness followed Greece headlines and a disappointing bond auction, and today's pullback took place amid escalating geopolitical concerns after a South Korean naval ship sunk, neither intraday pullback was directly triggered by a specific fundamental catalyst, making the moves more technically driven.

After starting today on a positive note, equities gave up their early gains in a sharp late-morning pullback. Headlines regarding a sunken South Korean naval ship stoked the idea of increased tensions between South and North Korea, and most likely contributed to some risk-paring, but it is still not clear if North Korea was involved in the sinking of the South Korean vessel and naval skirmishes between the two countries are not uncommon. Other than headlines on the Korean situation, intraday newsflow was relatively light and volume was below average.

Before the open, revisions to Q4 GDP were slightly worse than expected, but didn't impact the pre-market trading picture. A better-than-expected revision to the March University of Michigan Confidence reading helped boost equities at 9:55 ET, but the move was short-lived and no follow-through materialized. Today's action followed mixed trading overseas, with strength in Asia being offset by modestly weaker performance in major European markets. Notably, Greece's ASE Index rose 5.6% on the EU debt backstop.

While the S&P 500 is slightly higher on the week, market volatility picked up a bit on the late-week pullbacks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose above 18 today, up ~2 points from last week's 22-month low near 16. The rise in the VIX indicates increased expectations for near-term volatility. This modest rise in the VIX also comes ahead of next week's full slate of economic data, which could cause greater fluctuations in the market.

Interestingly, the big economic event of next week -- Friday's (4/2) March employment report -- will take place on a day when the stock market is closed for the Good Friday holiday. The bond market will be open however, and the current expectation is for a +190K increase in Nonfarm Payrolls. Prior to the week-end employment report, data on Personal Income and Spending (Monday), Consumer Confidence (Tuesday), ADP Employment Change (Wednesday) and Weekly Jobless Claims and ISM (Thursday), will all be released earlier in the week.

In addition to an abundance of economic data, there are a few earnings of interest next week. Bigger names include fertilizer company Mosaic (MOS) and Blackberry maker Research In Motion (RIMM), which are both due out Wednesday after the close. DJ30 +9.15 NASDAQ -2.28 SP500 +0.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1105.2/2253.0/1108.6 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 599.1/1028.7/406.4

3:35 pm : Stocks are relatively unchanged 30 minutes ahead of the bell.

The euro bounced off a 10 month low overnight as an agreement was made to rescue Greece, if need be. In turn, the dollar index fell 0.6% this session. Despite the weakness in the greenback, commodities failed to catch a substantial bid, they closed 0.2% lower, collectively.

Thanks to the weak dollar, precious metals netted a 1.1% gain this session. April gold closed 0.7% higher at $1100.90 per ounce after closing below the $1100 level in the prior two sessions. May silver closed +1.0% higher at $16.91 per ounce.

Energy commodities lost 0.7% this session. Natural gas futures sold off hard into the close. The April contract closed at $3.88 per MMBtu, down 2.5%. Natural gas prices are at lows not seen since late September 2009; they are down 36% since January 5. After hitting session low at $79.54 per barrel, May crude oil closed down 0.6% at $80.02 per barrel. DJ30 +5.29 NASDAQ -4.56 SP500 -0.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1202/1.90 bln/1426 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1442/740 mln/1552

3:05 pm : While the markets flounder around the unchanged level this afternoon, this has been one industry that has continued its strength throughout the day. Solar stocks, such as First Solar (FLSR 116.32 +4.27), SunTech (STP 14.08 +0.40), and SunPower (SPWRA 18.30 +0.28) have been putting in solid gains throughout the session.

The catalyst for these stocks is in relation to the bailout plan for Greece. Most of the exposure for solar is in Europe -- particulary Germany, Spain, and Greece. The news of the rescue plan for Greece was a positive for the region as a whole, but Germany is by far is the largest economy in the Europe. Due to German Chancellor Angel Merkel, the IMF would be involved in any potential rescue and this has been viewed as a positive for Germany. So, in essence, what is good for Germany is also good for solar stocks. DJ30 +11 NASDAQ -4 SP500 +0.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1250/1751/1378 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1409/680.9/1572

2:30 pm : As we head towards the end of the session and week, news flow has dried up and stocks have chopped around the unchanged mark for about the past hour. The Dow is showing leadership at the moment, as it is the only major average trading with gains -- albeit, very modest gains.

There has been an update to the S. Korea story, as Reuters reported that there wasn't any sign of North Korean military in area where South Korean ship was sinking. DJ30 +7 NASDAQ -5 SP500 -1 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1273/1607.3/1328 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1421/623.7/1545

1:35 pm : The stock market had been in a steady decline over the past hour, with each of the major averages eventually tumbling into negative territory. Stocks are attempting to rally again and the major indices are basically flat on the day. News has been relatively slow since the opening bell, with the exception of the S. Korea story, in which details are still sketchy. Therefore, the drop in stocks seems to be more a function of sellers and shorts moving in on another intra-day failed rally.

While stocks have suffered, the 10-year note has strengthened, currently up 8/32. DJ30 +2 NASDAQ -7 SP500 -1 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1191/1365/1402 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1339/526.1/1593

1:05 pm : After starting the day on a positive note, equities have given up their early gains in a sharp late-morning pullback. Headlines on escalating geopolitical tensions around South and North Korea have been circulating, and are most likely contributing to some risk-paring ahead of the weekend, but there doesn't appear to be one single catalyst that triggered the quick pullback in stocks. It is noteworthy that the sharp intraday pullbacks experienced yesterday and today don't appear to be headline driven, suggesting the moves are more technically driven.

Regarding Korea, it was reported by MSNBC that "South Korea's military scrambled naval vessels to the western waters near the disputed maritime border with North Korea late Friday after an explosion ripped a hole in the bottom of a military ship, officials and news reports said. South Korea's YTN TV network said the government, which met in emergency session in an underground bunker after the incident, was investigating whether the sinking was due to a torpedo attack by the North."

Gold ticked up on the headlines out of Korea, but it has also pared some of those reactionary gains; front month gold futures are now +9 at 1101. The dollar remains weaker on the day vs. the euro, after a joint EU-IMF deal on Greece's sovereign debt problem tempered concerns there, but it hasn't made any significant movement intraday.

Other than headlines on the Korean situation, intraday newsflow has been relatively light and volume is below average as we approach the weekend. Pre-market revisions to Q4 GDP were slightly worse than expected, but didn't impact the pre-market trading picture. A better-than-expected revision to the March University of Michigan Confidence reading helped boost equities at 9:55 ET, but the move was short-lived and no follow-through materialized. Today's action follows mixed trading overseas, with strength in Asia being offset by modestly weaker performance in major European markets. Notably, Greece's ASE Index rose 5.6% on the EU debt backstop.

Today's intraday pullback follows a sharp-intraday reversal yesterday. The inability to hold yesterday's lows would be seen as follow-through weakness, putting a dent in the bullish technical trend of late. However, the ability to hold the lows would be seen as constructive from the long side, bringing less technical damage. This afternoon will be key in this regard. From a sector perspective, we'd note that technology is underperforming today (semi, software, disk drive, computer-hardware). DJ30 +6.35 NASDAQ -5.63 SP500 -0.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 475.5/1235.7/726.9 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 244.8/476.0/213.4

12:35 pm : The major averages have sold off rather sharply over the past thirty minutes and are now hovering around the unchanged mark. The Nasdaq has dipped into negative territory as technology large cap stocks such as Intel (INTC 22.38 +0.03), Microsoft (MSFT 29.81 -0.20), Hewlett Packard (HPQ 53.47 -0.03) slide lower. DJ30 +14 NASDAQ -1 SP500 +1 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1423/1062.8/1095 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1641/413.5/1276

12:00 pm : As we head into mid-day, the major averages have drifted slightly lower, but are still hanging on to decent gains. The gains are broad-based as the only major sector trading with losses at the moment is health care. Health insurers such as Aetna (AET 34.51 -0.28), Cigna (CI), and UnitedHealth (UNH) are all trading with losses.

Metals are still the clear winners in today's session so far, as gold and silver have recently made new intra-day highs. DJ30 +47 NASDAQ +8 SP500 +5 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1611/919.3/882 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1875/358.9/1040

11:30 am : Gold has been staging an impressive rally over the past half an hour or so, now up $9.00 per ounce to $1,101.90. Crude oil and natural gas are also moving higher, both near the unchanged mark after trading in the red this morning. These strong gains have helped support the basic materials sector this morning, which is up 1.5%. Inversely, the dollar continues its weakness, now off 0.75%. DJ30 +64 NASDAQ +11 SP500 +7 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1648/754/825 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1939/308.3/950

11:00 am : The stock market continues to put in moderate gains this morning, bolstered by gains in the financial and materials sectors, which are both up over 1% on the day. In financials, large cap banking stocks such as Bank of America (BAC 18.11 +0.37), JP Morgan (JPM 45.44 +0.50), and Wells Fargo (WFC 31.67 +0.61) are providing strong gains. Meanwhile, in the materials sector, agriculture chemical stocks like CF Industries (CF 92.24 +2.21) and Mosaic (MOS 59.72 +1.28) are higher by a decent margin. Additionally, gold has rebounded from earlier losses, now up $2.90 per ounce to $1,095.80. DJ30 +54 NASDAQ +11 SP500 +6 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1584/614.6/815 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1884/257.7/964

10:30 am : The dollar index has pulled back near session lows in recent trade, which has given a boost to most commodities.

The pullback pushed May crude oil off its recently hit lows of $79.59 per barrel, moving it back near the unchanged line. Currently crude is at $80.50 per barrel, down $0.03.

April natural gas has traded just below the unchanged line for most of today's session so far. Lows of $3.95 per MMBtu were put in around 8:00am ET and in current trade, the energy component is also back near the unchanged line at $3.99 per MMBtu.

Precious metals traded in the black for the majority of today's session. Both April gold and May silver moved back in negative territory recently, but this was short-lived. Currently, gold is trading just above the unchanged line at $1094 per ounce, while silver is also barely in the black at $16.76 per ounce. DJ30 +47.09 NASDAQ +11.73 SP500 +6.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1605/431.5 mln/745 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1913/191.2 mln/862

10:00 am : The final revision to the March University of Michigan Confidence reading came in better-than-expected, at 73.6 vs. the 73.0 consensus. The equity market saw a modestly positive reaction to the data, and is now just off the best levels since the open. There is no more economic data on the calendar for today. DJ30 +36.88 NASDAQ +12.94 SP500 +4.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 169.8/241.5/67.7 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 84.8/121.7/34.9

09:50 am : The major averages opened will fairly modest gains this morning, but are currently moving lower and are near the unchanged mark. None of the major sectors are putting in substantial gains or losses at the moment, although retail is showing some relative strength, up about 0.75%.

The dollar is lower this morning vs. the euro on the heels of the Greece agreement, and commodities such as oil, natural gas, and gold have given back earlier gains and are currently in the red. DJ30 +22 NASDAQ +9 SP500 +3 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1447/187.2/747 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1682/100.6/979

09:25 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.50. Although futures have pulled back slightly from early highs, they are holding the majority of this morning's bid and continue to point to a modestly higher open. A slightly worse-than-expected second revision to Q4 GDP, which came in at +5.6% vs. the +5.9% consensus, had a minimal impact on pre-market trading. There is one more piece of economic data on the calendar today, with the final March Michigan Confidence reading due out at 9:55 ET. Currency fluctuations remain in focus, with weakness in the dollar being a primary driver behind today's early strength. The dollar is lower vs. the euro (Dollar Index is -0.35 at 81.81) after Greece received a deal on its sovereign debt crisis. The deal is backed by the eurozone and the IMF, and funds will be tapped if the country is unable to raise funds on its own. The weaker dollar is helping commodities such as gold and oil trade higher as well. In stock specific news Oracle (ORCL) is up +0.7% following an in-line earnings report, while Radioshack (RSH) is trading up ~6% after the NY Times reported the company is exploring a sale and share buyback options. In other news, the White House is expected to announce an expansion of its foreclosure-prevention efforts to include reducing mortgage loan balances for some borrowers. Under this plan, the FHA will allow some homeowners who owe more than their homes are worth to refinance into government-backed loans. Early strength in the U.S. follows mixed trading overseas. Asian markets were higher on comments from the People's Bank of China governor Zhou Xiaochuan,suggesting rate hikes may be months away (Nikkei +1.6%, Hang Seng +1.3%, Shanghai Comp +1.3%). Major European markets are seeing mixed trading on the heels of the agreement on Greece (FTSE -0.4%, DAX -0.3%, CAC -0.3%). However, Greece's ASE Index is up 4.4% on the news.

09:04 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.50. In overseas trading, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index increased 1.0% overnight. Japan's Nikkei ended +1.6% at an 18-month closing high as recent weakness in the yen buoyed exporters, and helped by investors looking to secure dividends before the financial year ends on March 31. Shares in a broad swathe of sectors climbed on Friday, including chip-linked shares such as Advantest (ADR: ATE) and Tokyo Electron, which extended recent gains made on the hopes of strong earnings and improving demand... In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed +1.3%, spurred by views that Beijing could delay its rate rise, while the move by the IMF and European nations to help Greece out of its debt woes further lifted buying interest... In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed +1.3%, led by new small-cap shares, after sentiment received a boost from comments by the central bank chief hinting that an interest rate rise could be months away. In comments published on Friday in the official Shanghai Securities News, central bank governor Zhou ZiaoChuan said at a meeting of the Inter-American Development Bank that China would not withdraw stimulus measures until it was confident the economy would not risk suffering a second dip... In Australia, the ASX closed +0.2% as cautiousness concerning a recovery in the U.S. and debt problems in Europe continued to weigh on the market. Investors turned to defensive stocks early in the day, but funds returned to the major resource and finance sectors later in the session to send the major indices higher.. In Europe, Great Britain's FTSE has dropped 0.3%, Germany's DAX is giving up 0.2%, and France's CAC also has shed 0.2%. More specifically, drugmakers are reversing earlier gains, while Greek banks rose as a financial safety net plan for the debt-laden country provided some relief. Greek lenders surged, encouraged by an agreement by eurozone leaders for a package for Greece under which Athens would receive both bilateral loans from eurozone partners and IMF funding if it faced severe difficulties.

08:36 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.00. At 8:30 ET, the Q4 GDP third estimate was released, and it came in lower than expected at +5.6% vs. the +5.9% consensus. The Q4 GDP price index (final number) was slightly higher than anticipated at +0.5% compared to the +0.4% expectation. Additionally, personal consumption expenditure data was released and came in a bit lighter than expected at +1.6% vs. the +1.7% projection. Following this batch of economic data, the futures had little reaction, essentially unchanged from before the release.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.80. After seeing a sharp intra-day reversal yesterday, equity futures are pointing higher this morning -- again affected by fluctuations in the dollar. The S&P 500 traded to new 52-week highs yesterday before the major averages saw a sharp mid-day reversal that accelerated into the close. The afternoon pullback followed a number of events all hit during the lunchtime hour: a surge in the dollar following further headlines regarding the Greece debt situation, a disappointing 7-year auction (leading to further selling in the bond markets), and a technical failure to break above intra-day resistance. This morning, the dollar has fallen against the euro after received a deal on its sovereign debt crisis. The deal is backed by the eurozone and the IMF, and will be tapped if the country is unable to raise funds on its own. The weaker dollar is helping commodities such as gold and oil trade higher as well... Later this morning markets will digest the second revision to Q4 GDP (8:30 ET), and then after the open at 9:55 ET a revised March Michigan Confidence reading will be released.

06:45 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.50.

06:45 am : Nikkei...10996.37...+167.50...+1.60%. Hang Seng...21053.11...+274.60...+1.30%.

06:45 am : FTSE...5710.89...-16.50...-0.30%. DAX...6114.16...-18.80...-0.30%.

Special thanks to Yahoo! Finance and CNNMoney for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

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