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 Post subject: March 19th Friday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +14.90
PostPosted: Fri Mar 19, 2010 4:10 pm 
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Trade Journal By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, although this journal contains advertisements involving my trade methods, it does contain useful trading tips a few times per week. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips that can improve your trading and understand that profitable trading involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader that's the same as my user name on twitter.

Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=72&t=474.

Quote:
Today's results are 6 wins : 3 losses. I wasn't happy with my trading today because I let one winner become a loser and didn't manage another losing trade too well. Simply, two losing trades that shouldn't have occurred in that type of price action with volatility. Also, I had some data problems out of the gate that caused me to miss a great Short entry right out of the gate. Thus, I was fortunate that there was volatility for the remainder of the trading day to allow me to almost exceed my profit goal by 40%. Best trade of the day, not based upon points, was a good trade manage trade that I got Long around 1548pm est and then closed the position before it had a chance to retrace that volatility spike upwards.

Trading Tip: Always expect the market to be surprising. For example, Quadruple Witching Friday's are typically low in volatility in comparison to other trading days in a Quadruple Wtiching week. Today the volatility was the best all week.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader


In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).

http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, if you're interested in having free access to one of my profitable trade strategies along with earning extra income with little effort...join my referral program @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ReferralProgram.htm

My Trading Performance: +14.90 points in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures
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Dow Breaks Winning Streak
By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
March 19, 2010: 5:23 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks slipped Friday as a strong dollar dragged on commodity prices, giving investors a reason to step back after pushing the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite to 18-month highs in the previous session.

Palm's worse-than-expected quarterly loss pummeled the tech and telecom sectors.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 37 points, or 0.4%, after ending the previous session at its highest point since Oct. 1, 2008. The Dow has now broken its winning streak after having closed higher for eight sessions in a row, the longest stretch since last August.

The S&P 500 index (SPX) slid 6 points, or 0.5%, after finishing the previous session at its highest point since Sept. 26, 2008. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) shed 17 points, or 0.7%, after ending the previous session at its highest point since Aug. 28, 2008, a nearly 19-month high.

Stock declines Friday were broad-based, with 22 out of 30 Dow issues falling, led by American Express (AXP, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), 3M (MMM, Fortune 500), Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500).

Investors took a step back Friday after pushing stocks higher in recent weeks. But the Dow, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all closed higher for the week, rising for the fifth week out of the last six.

Stocks gained Thursday after reports showed that pricing pressure remains mild and the pace of job losses is slowing.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners seven to three on volume of 1.98 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers eight to five on volume of 3.01 billion shares.
Is Palm doomed?

Palm: The smartphone maker plunged 26% Friday after reporting a steeper-than-expected quarterly loss after the close of trade Thursday. Palm (PALM) also said that a big build-up of inventory will drag on current-quarter revenue.

Analysts pounced on the company Friday, with two brokerages cutting their price target on the stock to $0.

Quadruple witching: Friday also brought the quarterly options expiration in which stock index futures and options as well as individual stock futures and options all expire at the same time.

The event can cause wild fluctuations in the underlying stocks and greater volatility in the broader market. However, the effect tends to be felt throughout the week of the expiration, rather than just on Friday.

The dollar and commodities: The dollar gained versus the euro and the yen, dragging on dollar-traded commodity prices.

U.S. light crude oil for April delivery fell $1.52 to settle at $80.68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for April delivery fell $19.90 to settle at $1,107.60 per ounce.
0:00 /2:53Bears call out stock market surge

Bonds: Treasury prices fell, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.69% from 3.67% late Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

World markets: In overseas trading, European markets were mixed. The London FTSE rose 0.1%, the French CAC 40 fell 0.3% and the German DAX lost 0.5%. Asian markets gained, with Japan's Nikkei rising 0.8% and the Hong Kong Hang Seng gaining 0.2%.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Stocks fell to profit taking as a lack of positive catalysts and a stronger dollar kept many buyers at bay, while volume and volatility spiked with quadruple witching.

Heading into Friday's trade the stock market had gained more than 5% since the start of the month. The climb started to steady in the prior session as stocks in the broader market moved sideways to consolidate their recent string of gains. The flat trade was regarded by several as a sign that stocks may have become tired after their run and additional advances in the near term may be harder to come by. In turn, a broad-based selling effort hit stocks for their worst session of this month.

There were neither data nor headlines to sway the mood this session to positive from negative since the economic calendar was empty and Palm (PALM 4.04, -1.61) was the primary company on the earnings calendar. The handset maker posted a paltry quarterly report that featured a worse-than-expected loss and wimpy revenue forecast. Many analysts slashed their target price for shares of PALM all the way down to $0 in response -- the stock dropped to a fresh 52-week low.

Weakness in shares of PALM, along with broader market pressure, dropped the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index for a 1.1% loss. Small-caps are still among the best performers this year, though; they're up almost 8%, collectively.

A stronger dollar further dampened the mood among market participants. Specifically, the greenback gained 0.6% against competing currencies this session. That came on top of its 0.7% advance in the prior session to combine for the buck's best back-to-back bounce since January.

The dollar's recent strength comes amid continued headlines about proposed financial support for Greece, though any sort of clear or official resolution has remained absent.

Gains by the greenback also dragged down commodities this session, such that the CRB Commodity Index fell to a 1.1% loss. Contracts for crude closed pit trade with oil priced 1.8% lower at $80.68 per barrel. Pressure against precious metals was exacerbated by news that India's central bank increased the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.0% and its reverse repo rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%. Gold prices closed 1.8% lower at $1107.60 per ounce, while silver settled 2.2% lower at $17.03 per ounce.

The confluence of weaker commodity prices and broader market pressure made natural resource plays this session's worst performers. As such, the materials sector dropped 1.0% and the energy sector fell 0.9%.

Telecom was the only major sector to finish with any sort of a gain. It advanced 0.4%.

Health care showed relative strength ahead of an anticipated weekend vote for health care reform. The sector finished flat.

Contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures all expired this session. That drove both trading volume and volatility sharply higher. More specifically, trading volume on the NYSE hit its highest level of the year as nearly 2 billion shares exchanged hands. Meanwhile, the Volatility Index fell 1% in the opening minutes of trade to a fresh 52-week low, but then spiked to a gain of more than 5% before it closed the session with a 2.2% increase.

Advancing Sectors: Telecom (+0.4%)
Declining Sectors: Materials (-1.0%), Energy (-0.9%), Tech (-0.8%), Financials (-0.7%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.6%), Industrials (-0.4%), Utilities (-0.2%), Consumer Staples (-0.1%)
Unchanged: Health Care DJ30 -37.19 NASDAQ -16.87 NQ100 -0.6% R2K -1.1% SP400 -1.0% SP500 -5.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1039/2.90 bln/1651 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 901/1.98 bln/2136

3:30 pm : The markets have traded in a narrow range since hitting a session low in the morning. Volume is higher-than-normal because it is quadruple witching Friday.

Weakness in the euro amid headlines regarding a Greece bailout led to gains in the dollar index. Strength in the dollar index (up 0.6%) led to lower commodity prices. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index lost 1.1% this session.

Precious metals led this move to the downside, closing 2.1% lower, collectively. After the Indian Central Bank increased its repo rate 25 bps, gold and silver futures sold off precipitously. April gold closed 1.8% lower at $1107.60 per ounce. May silver saw an even more pronounced loss; it closed 2.2% lower at $17.03 per ounce.

The dollar's strength led to most energy commodities extending yesterday's steep losses. Crude oil fell sharply lower but found support at the $80 level. The April contract closed 1.8% lower at $80.68 per barrel. RBOB gasoline and heating oil futures both fell 1.9%.

Natural gas futures, on the other hand, rose this session following yesterday's debacle. The April contract traded as low as $4.05 per MMBtu early in the session before moving higher and closing up 1.7% at $4.16 per MMBtu. DJ30 -53.06 NASDAQ -20.24 SP500 -7.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 761/2.17 bln/1899 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 801/1.18 bln/2220

3:00 pm : Stocks started to move up from their session lows in recent action, but they have since re-entered a relatively narrow range to trade sideways with steady losses. The sideways drift has made for rather lackluster action this afternoon and appears to have stocks on track for a rather anticlimactic finish to this week's trade. Despite such a scenario, stocks look like they're headed for a weekly gain of roughly 0.8%. That would mark the stock market's third straight weekly advance. DJ30 -53.21 NASDAQ -19.97 SP500 -6.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 718/2.01 bln/1937 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 764/1.12 bln/2228

2:30 pm : Stocks have started to trim some of their losses. Still, weakness remains relatively widespread as declining issues outnumber advancers by 3-to-1 in the S&P 500.

Such broad-based weakness bled into Europe's major bourses, which had made their way to strong gains prior to the U.S. open. In turn, Germany's DAX dropped to a 0.5% loss, France's CAC fell to a 0.3% loss, and Britain's FTSE fought to hold on to a mere 0.1% gain.

Weakness among the global indices has dragged the Dow Jones World Index to a 0.4% loss. DJ30 -45.42 NASDAQ -19.56 SP500 -6.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 694/1.90 bln/1930 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 751/1.07 bln/2236

2:00 pm : Trading volume has surged this session. The 200-day moving average stands at 1.19 billion shares per session, but already more than 1 billion shares have exchanged hands on the NYSE today. The spike comes as a result of a quadruple witching options expiration, which means that contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures all expire at the close. Trading volume may have also increased as a result of the quarterly rebalancing of the S&P 500.

Given the aforementioned events, market watchers shouldn't read too much into today's trading volume. The recent trend in trading volume has been one of extremely light participation as many investors and traders have opted to sit on the sidelines in order to reassess the current trading environment. DJ30 -56.99 NASDAQ -20.79 SP500 -6.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 673/1.79 bln/1959 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 708/1.01 bln/2272

1:30 pm : Stocks continue to trade near session lows with broad-based losses. Oil prices also remain depressed as contracts currently price crude at $80.30 per barrel, down 2.3%. The confluence of broader market weakness and lower oil prices has dropped the energy sector for a 1.3% loss, which is worse than that of any other major sector at the moment. DJ30 -57.67 NASDAQ -21.44 SP500 -7.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 655/1.65 bln/1959 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 711/990 mln/2257

1:00 pm : Sellers stepped in shortly after the opening bell to undercut the stock market and position it for its worst session of this month. The pressure comes amid a stronger dollar and follows a strong streak of gains.

Stocks opened this session in mixed fashion. The tepid tone came amid a lack of major catalysts, though the dollar had won favor over competing currencies in the wake of continued headlines about proposed financial support for Greece. However, as the Dollar Index extended its gain to 0.8% pressure picked up in the broader market. The buck is currently up 0.6%, though.

The greenback's gain has pressured commodities and commodity related stocks. As such, the CRB Commodity Index is down 1.4% in its worst single-session percentage slide since February. Meanwhile, energy stocks are down 1.4% and materials stocks are down 0.8%.

Tech stocks are also considerably weak. Their declines have led the tech-rich Nasdaq to a loss that exceeds that of its counterparts. Palm (PALM 4.13, -1.52) is a primary source of weakness among tech issues; the company posted a worse-than-expected loss for its latest quarter and issued a paltry revenue forecast. Many analysts have slashed their target price for shares of PALM all the way down to $0.

The drop in PALM has also imbued the Russell 2000 (-1.4%) with weakness. Small-caps have also been hurt by the interest of participants to take profits after watching the Russell 2000 climb almost 8% from the start of March through the prior session. For comparison, the S&P 500 advanced slightly more than 5% during that same time.

Telecom currently makes up the only major sector to sport a gain. The sector is up 0.3% at the moment.

Health care has held up relatively well against this session's selling effort. At the moment the sector is flat as participants prepare for an anticipated weekend vote for health care reform. Volatility has spiked amid this session's selling pressure.

The Volatility Index had retreated to a fresh 52-week low in the early going, but it has since climbed to a 4.5% increase. That could be partly attributable to quadruple witching options expiration, which has already significantly increased trading volume. DJ30 -50.79 NASDAQ -20.86 SP500 -6.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 651/1.55 bln/1959 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 710/955 mln/2246

12:30 pm : Small-cap stocks are under relatively stiff selling pressure this session. The effort has taken the Russell 2000 down to a 1.3% loss. Palm (PALM 4.42, -1.23) is a primary source of weakness among small-caps; the company posted a worse-than-expected loss for its latest quarter and issued a paltry revenue forecast. Many analysts have slashed their target price for shares of PALM all the way down to $0, dragging the stock to a new 52-week low. DJ30 -54.04 NASDAQ -19.87 SP500 -7.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 667/1.45 bln/1921 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 661/912 mln/2296

12:00 pm : Stocks have steadied their slide, but weakness remains widespread. Losses are especially pronounced among airline stocks, which are down a collective 2.6%, as measured by the Amex Airline Index. AMR Corp (AMR 9.14, -0.40) is among the worst performing airline stocks.

Volatility has spiked amid this session's selling pressure. The Volatility Index had retreated to a fresh 52-week low in the early going, but it has since climbed to a 3.5% increase. DJ30 -47.61 NASDAQ -19.27 SP500 -6.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 656/1.32 bln/1891 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 675/870 mln/2238

11:30 am : Stocks recently retreated to fresh session lows. Weakness is widespread with nine of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 in the red; telecom (+0.1%) is the only major sector to trade in positive territory.

The stock market's recent slip has come in conjunction with the dollar's increased gains, such that the Dollar Index is at a fresh session high with a 0.8% gain. The greenback's gain has also pressured the commodity complex. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index is down 1.5%.

Treasuries have garnered modest support. As such, the benchmark 10-year Note has made its way up from a slight loss in the early going to a modest gain in recent action. DJ30 -62.43 NASDAQ -23.16 SP500 -8.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 603/1.18 bln/1926 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 634/820 mln/2271

11:00 am : Financial stocks have generally fallen out of favor this session. In turn, the sector trades with a 0.5% loss at the moment. With a collective 1.3% loss, consumer finance issues are under the most pressure. Diversified financial services stocks aren't far behind with their 0.9% loss.

Meanwhile, many banking issues are flat, despite comments from FDIC Chairman Bair on CNBC that bank failures will probably peak in the third quarter.

Insurance outfit Progressive (PGR 18.08, +0.21) is strong, however; its shares were upgraded by analysts at Bank of America's Merrill Lynch. DJ30 -36.58 NASDAQ -14.91 SP500 -5.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 717/990 mln/1760 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 784/740 mln/2088

10:35 am : The US Dollar Index has traded in positive territory all session and recently hit fresh session highs. This has pressured the majority of the commodity complex, particularly the energy markets, excluding natural gas.

April crude oil has been in the red all session. Minutes ago, the energy component fell sharply to new morning lows of $80.43 per barrel, primarily due to the strength in the dollar index. Currently, crude is trading at $80.80 per barrel, down 1.7%.

The price action in April natural gas is independent from the energy market again. At the open, natural gas pushed into positive territory, back near earlier session highs of $4.13 per MMBtu. Currently natural gas is trading near those highs at $4.10 per MMBtu, up 0.4%.

Precious metals have traded in negative territory all session along with crude. April gold and May silver put in fresh lows minutes ago due to further strength in the dollar index. Currently, gold is trading just above its recent low at $1108.20 per ounce, down 1.7% Silver is also near recent lows at $17.14 per ounce, down 1.6%. DJ30 -28.12 NASDAQ -13.47 SP500 -4.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 208.7/809.3 mln/584.9 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 181.6 /671.6 mln/484.4

10:00 am : The stock market continues to trade along the neutral line in the early going. Action has been both listless and lackluster so far.

However, the dollar has extended its gain against competing currencies, such that the Dollar Index is now up 0.5%.

Volatility continues to wane. As such, the Volatility Index is down 0.9% to a new 52-week low.

Early movers: Trading up -- POL +13.8%, BVX +11.3%, CTEL +11.3%, LYG +9.4%, SOMX +8.6%, RXII +8.2%, CBEH +7%, PCBC +6.6%, SPR +6%, ZANE +5.7%, ZNH +5.3%, MSTR +5.3%; Trading down -- PALM -17.4%, ADUS -16.5%, SPWRB -10.5%, SPWRA -10.4%, ITRN -10.3%, TISI -9.3%, SB -8.3%, NLST -8%, ZIXI -5.9%, GCH -5%

Advancing Sectors: Telecom (+0.5%), Utilities (+0.3%), Industrials (+0.3%), Health Care (+0.2%), Consumer Staples (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Energy (-0.5%), Tech (-0.2%), Materials (-0.1%)
Unchanged: Financials, Consumer Discretionary DJ30 +7.71 NASDAQ -2.08 SP500 +0.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1007/570 mln/1315 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1218/586 mln/1462

09:45 am : The major indices are mixed in the first few minutes as stocks seek direction.

Health care stocks have attracted support after they had lagged in each of the past few sessions. They are up 0.3% as a group. Renewed interest in the sector precedes an anticipated weekend vote for health care reform.

Meanwhile, energy stocks have extended their slide from the prior session as they fall to a 0.6% loss. Energy stocks, as a group, are now up just 0.3% year-to-date. DJ30 -1.82 NASDAQ -1.41 SP500 -0.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 921/450 mln/1317 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1074/545 mln/1519

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.00. Stock futures have managed to tick modestly higher, but a generally flat start still looks to be in order for the final trading session of the week. Premarket participants have been unenthused by the overall lack of corporate news flow and void economic calendar, though former Fed Chairman Greenspan is set to speak about the financial crisis just before noon. And while stories related to proposed financial support for Greece continue to come across news wires, any sort of clear or official resolution remains absent. Though the current tone of trade suggests a rather anticlimactic finish to this week, there could be a pickup in participation since this session marks a quadruple witching options expiration. Several indices are scheduled to be rebalanced, as well.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.80. Stock futures have ticked slightly higher, but energy prices have extended their slide from the previous session. Specifically, oil has dipped a little more than 0.5% to $81.75 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. Natural gas prices were last quoted 0.8% lower at $4.05 per MMBtu, which fractionally extends the commodity's multimonth low. As for precious metals, gold is down 0.4% to $1123.30 per ounce, while silver was last quoted at $17.33 per ounce, down 0.6%.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.30. Premarket action in the U.S. remains lackluster. In Europe, stories related to proposed financial support for Greece continue to come across news wires, but any clear or official resolution remains absent. As for corporate news, Britain's Lloyds Banking Group (LYG) reported that it expects to post a profit in 2010, since provisions for bad assets are not as large as previously forecast. The news has helped lift other banking issues and supported a 0.7% gain for Britain's FTSE. Financial issues are also leading France's CAC, which is up 0.5% at the moment. BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, and Credit Agricole currently lead the list of top performers. In Germany, the DAX is up 0.4%. Deutsche Bank (DB) is a leader among advancing issues, which outnumber decliners by 3-to-1. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei concluded the week with a 0.8% gain as its advancing issues outnumbered its decliners by 4-to-1. The broad-based advance helped the Nikkei finish the week on a positive note and solidify a modest weekly gain of 0.7%. Kyocera (KYO), Canon (CAJ), Honda Motor (HMC), and Sony (SNE) were primary sources of strength in the latest session. According to reports, Samsung Electronics predicted a strong 2010 and said it is aiming for double-digit sales growth from last year's record high. Hong Kong's Hang Seng had a more modest gain of 0.2% in its final session of the week. That helped it secure a weekly gain of 0.8%. Bank of China and China Construction Bank were primary sources of strength in the final session of the week. However, HSBC (HBC) was a key laggard. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed Friday with a 0.7% gain and a 1.8% weekly gain.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.80. The stock market heads into Friday with a week-to-date gain of more than 1%, but stock futures currently point to a flat start for this week's final session. There haven't been many catalysts for trade in the wake of the prior session's flat finish -- corporate news flow is lacking and there aren't any items on the economic calendar. The dollar is always on the radar, though; it is currently up 0.3% against a basket of foreign currencies. Meanwhile, overseas markets have managed to make mixed gains.

06:48 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat.

06:48 am : Nikkei...10824.72...+80.70...+0.80%. Hang Seng...21370.82...+40.20...+0.20%.

06:48 am : FTSE...5681.24...+38.70...+0.70%. DAX...6032.45...+20.10...+0.30%.

Special thanks to Yahoo! Finance and CNNMoney for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1 708 572-4885
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