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 Post subject: March 11th Thursday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +5.50
PostPosted: Fri Mar 12, 2010 8:40 am 
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Trade Journal By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, although this journal contains advertisements involving my trade methods, it does contain useful trading tips a few times per week. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips that can improve your trading and understand that profitable trading involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader that's the same as my user name on twitter.

Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=72&t=467.

Quote:
Today's results are 3 wins : 2 losses : 1 breakeven. I took it easy today and missed a few good trade opportunities while monitoring my ping and data packets from data provider after yesterday's data problems that kepted me on the sidelined. One of the missed trade opportunities was a Short signal around 1055am est via the Volatility Trading Report (VTR)...a trade signal that makes the bulk of my profits via exploiting inefficient price action that's changing volatility.

Trading Tip: If your going to trade breakouts, you need to learn how to FADE a breakout to understand the weakness of trading breakouts.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, if you're interested in having free access to one of my profitable trade strategies along with earning extra income with little effort...join my referral program @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ReferralProgram.htm

My Trading Performance: +5.50 points in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures
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Stocks Manage Gains
By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
March 11, 2010: 6:37 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks gained Thursday, erasing earlier losses to lift the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to 18-month highs as investors eyed the day's jobs and trade news and the direction of the U.S. dollar.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 44 points, or 0.2%, ending at a six-week high.

The S&P 500 index (SPX) added 5 points, or 0.5%, ending at an 18-month high.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 3 points, or 0.1%, ending at a fresh 18-month high.

Stocks seesawed through most of the session as investors played it cautious after the recent run up and showed concern about a spike in China's inflation rate last month. But the weakness gave out by the close and markets ended with slim gains.

Stocks have been on an upswing lately, posting gains over the last month. As of Thursday's close, the Dow has risen in eight of the last 10 sessions and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have risen in nine of the last 10 sessions.

"The market is taking a pause after having a positive bias over the last few weeks," said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.

He said investors are in a gap between the rush of fourth-quarter earnings reports, which wound down two weeks ago, and the start of first-quarter earnings reports, which is still over a month away.

Further stock gains will be determined by earnings and revenue growth and the transition between a government stimulus-driven economy and one driven by fundamentals, he said.

"It all comes down to the consumer and jobs, and today's jobs report was maybe a little disappointing," he said.

Jobless claims: The Labor Department reported that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment fell to 462,000 from a revised 468,000 the previous week. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought it would fall to 460,000.

Continuing claims, a measure of Americans who have been receiving unemployment checks for a week or more, rose to 4,558,000, up 37,000 from the previous week's reading of 4,521,000. Economists expected 4,500,000 claims.

World Markets: Asian markets ended higher, even as investors mulled a report that showed China's inflation rate rose 2.7% in February.

China's growth in the aftermath of the recession has already caused officials to limit bank lending and this report could add to pressure to start raising interest rates. China is the third-largest economy in the world and a big importer of goods.

In overseas trading, European markets ended lower, with London's FTSE 100 down 0.4%, Germany's DAX down 0.1% and France's CAC 40 down 0.4%.
Why we can't inflate our way out of debt

Economy: The January trade gap narrowed to $37.3 billion from a revised reading of $39.9 billion. The deficit was expected to widen to $41 billion, according to forecasts.

Another report showed that foreclosure rates rose 6% in February from a year earlier, but fell 2% from the previous month.
0:00 /1:19Jobs grow barely

Deals: A slew of corporations have announced mergers over the last few weeks as economic optimism has started to creep back into place.

On Thursday, BP (BP) said it will pay Devon Energy (DVN, Fortune 500) $7 billion for exploration rights in Brazil, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caspian sea.

The dollar and commodities: The dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for April delivery rose 2 cents to settle at $82.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for April delivery rose $0.10 to settle at $1,108.20 per ounce.

Bonds: Treasury prices slipped, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 3.74% from 3.72% late Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers three to two on volume of 983 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners by seven to six on volume of 2.19 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Stocks were confined to a narrow trading range just below the neutral line for most of the session, but a late bounce by financials gave the broader market its ninth gain in ten sessions and helped it close in-line with its 52-week high.

A subdued mood governed trade in the early going and for most of the afternoon. Participants appeared inclined to sit on recent gains amid a lack of market-moving headlines, including an initial jobless claims count of 462,000 for the week ended Mar. 6. The consensus had called for 460,000 initial claims that had been expected.

Meanwhile, continuing claims totaled 4.56 million, which was greater than the 4.50 million continuing claims that had been expected.

The trade balance for January came in with a $37.3 billion deficit, which was not quite as dramatic as the $41.0 billion deficit that had been forecast.

Data out of China did little to lift the spirits of global participants. News that the country's consumer prices for February spiked a stronger-than-expected 2.7% year-over-year rekindled concerns that the country may have to apply tighter monetary policy to keep from overheating. Arguably, such a move could slow the global economic recovery.

Meanwhile, Japan revised lower its fourth quarter GDP to a 0.9% increase from the preliminary 1.1% growth rate. However, reports suggested that the Japanese government may upgrade its economic assessment in its monthly report.

The broader market's reaction to the announcements was generally muted, but it followed financial stocks to higher ground as the sector shook free from its confines to climb to a 0.9% gain. Strength in the sector continues to be underpinned by banks, which advanced 1.7%, as measured by the KBW Bank Index. The KBW is up nearly 5% this week.

Leadership from the financial sector helped the stock market close at its session high, which is actually in-line with the S&P 500's 52-week closing high. The high has acted as a point of resistance in recent sessions.

While the close looked strong, volume was unimpressive as fewer than 1 billion shares traded hands on the NYSE. Such a scenario is often considered a sign of little conviction.

Advancing Sectors: Financials (+0.9%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.6%), Materials (+0.5%), Health Care (+0.4%), Tech (+0.4%), Telecom (+0.4%), Industrials (+0.3%), Utilities (+0.3%), Consumer Staples (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: (None)
Unchanged: EnergyDJ30 +44.51 NASDAQ +9.51 NQ100 +0.3% R2K +0.3% SP400 +0.5% SP500 +4.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1487/2.18 bln/1126 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1794/981 mln/1215

3:35 pm : Stocks are climbing to session highs as the dollar index is reaching session lows.

In the commodity space, May copper closed 0.7% higher at $3.38 pound. Copper futures spiked following news that another aftershock struck copper rich Chile. However, a report from Codelco stating there was no damage to any of its mines tempered the move to the upside.

Precious metals had a relatively quiet day after the move to the downside in the prior session. A decline in the dollar index allowed both gold and silver futures to move higher following early losses. April gold traded in narrow range. After hitting a session low at $1110.50 per ounce in the morning, it closed flat at $1108.20 per ounce. May silver closed 0.8% higher at $17.16 per ounce.

Crude oil futures also opened the pit trade lower but worked their way back to the flat line as the dollar weakened. April crude oil closed essentially flat at $82.11 per barrel.

Natural Gas futures sold off following an in-line inventory report this morning. April natural gas closed 2.4% lower at $4.45 per MMBtu. Natural gas this session hit its lowest levels since November 24 at $4.42 per MMBtu. DJ30 +27.66 NASDAQ +3.88 SP500 +2.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1269/1.79 bln/1352 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1586/702 mln/1404

3:00 pm : Stocks are little changed as they head into the final hour of the session. Action has been lackluster all afternoon; in fact, the S&P 500 has traded within a four-point range for the past five hours.

A handful of companies are scheduled to report their latest quarterly results after the close. Aeropostale (ARO 27.00), Pacific Sunwear (PSUN 5.73, +0.02), and National Semiconductor (NSM 14.41, -0.42) are on the list. DJ30 +1.89 NASDAQ -0.21 SP500 -0.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1125/1.63 bln/1475 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1437/639 mln/1549

2:30 pm : Consumer discretionary stocks make up the only major sector to trade with a gain. They are up just 0.1%, though.

Financials had been a relative leader earlier in the session, but the sector has since faltered. It is now in negative territory with a fractional loss. AIG (AIG 35.81, -0.43), which has been a primary leader among financials during recent sessions, has rolled over from a fourth-month high to trade in the red. Volume behind the stock is expanding. DJ30 -7.63 NASDAQ -3.99 SP500 -1.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1035/1.45 bln/1568 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1342/590 mln/1627

2:00 pm : Trade remains lackluster and the major indices are still down with modest losses. The subdued mood shows in this session's lack of trading volume, which is unlikely to surpass 1 billion shares at its current pace. DJ30 -10.43 NASDAQ -3.76 SP500 -1.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1075/1.32 bln/1519 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1355/546 mln/1610

1:30 pm : Results from a $13 billion auction of 30-year Bonds were released at 1:00 PM ET. The auction took a surprisingly good turn with buyers chasing the yield lower to 4.68% in an effort to grab the longer duration issue. The large chunk that went to the direct bidders was a record level, while indirects got significantly less-than-average at 23.9%. The auction's bid-to-cover ratio hit 2.89, which was well above the recent average of 2.47.

Treasuries pared their losses in the wake of the results. As such, the benchmark 10-year Note is down just one tick. DJ30 -2.04 NASDAQ -2.57 SP500 -1.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1066/1.26 bln/1505 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1340/502 mln/1605

1:00 pm : The major equity averages have been stuck in negative territory for almost all of the session. The lackluster trade comes amid a lack of positive catalysts to keep buyers interested.

Stocks headed into this session with gains in eight of the past nine sessions, which combined for a near 4% gain and put the S&P 500 just below its 52-week high, which was set in mid-January. However, recent action has been generally range bound as stocks struggle to push to new highs.

Now that earnings season is grinding to an end, participants have been without market-moving corporate headlines. That has kept the focus on the dollar, data, and overseas developments.

This session, the dollar has danced along the unchanged line for most of the session. It, along with stocks, was unaffected by the latest dose of data, which showed an in-line initial jobless claims total of 462,000 for the week ended Mar. 6 and an unexpected dip in the January trade deficit to $37.3 billion.

A flurry of data also came out of China. Of primary concern, China reported sharper-than-expected increases in consumer and producer prices. That rekindled concern about tighter monetary policy in the country, which many have looked to as a leader in the global economic rebound.

Though there haven't been any key catalysts to guide participants this session, financials continue to display strength. The sector wavered in the early going, but has since recovered to trade with a 0.2% gain. That makes it the only major sector to trade with a gain at the moment. Regional banks (+1.6%) have underpinned the sector's strength this session.

Despite what has generally been lackluster action in the broader market, Treasuries remain under modest pressure. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note has climbed to 3.75%, which is a three-week high. The action comes ahead of the results from an auction of 30-year Bonds. DJ30 -11.49 NASDAQ -2.83 SP500 -1.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1024/1.13 bln/1524 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1298/460 mln/1639

12:30 pm : Shares of Visa (V 91.83, +0.31) are on the retreat after they set a new 52-week high earlier this session. The company, which is hosting an Investor Day conference, reaffirmed earnings per share (EPS) growth of plus 20% through fiscal 2010 and fiscal 2011. Visa expects to accelerate development spending in mobile, money transfer, and informational products and services in 2011. The company is actively seeking investment opportunities to expand its processing footprint outside of the U.S.

Though its strength is fading, Visa's shares remain in positive territory, unlike its close peer MasterCard (MA 248.05, -1.55), which has spent virtually the entire session in the red. DJ30 -20.24 NASDAQ -7.27 SP500 -3.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 964/1.08 bln/1564 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1180/415 mln/1744

12:00 pm : There hasn't been much in the way of corporate news flow this morning. However, apparel and accessories retailer Hot Topic (HOTT 6.31, -0.24) reported for its latest quarter earnings of $0.18 per share, which was in-line with Wall Street's expectations. However, the company reported that it expects a modest loss for its first fiscal quarter.

Elsewhere in the retail space, Buckle (BKE 35.20, +0.61) reported for its latest quarter earnings of $0.90 per share, which exceeded the consensus estimate of $0.84 per share.

Overall, retailers are having a solid session. The group is up 0.3%, collectively. DJ30 -4.08 NASDAQ -1.95 SP500 -1.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1052/955 mln/1475 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1273/362 mln/1619

11:30 am : The major indices recently poked into positive territory, but resistance has increased to keep stocks just below the neutral line.

Financials haven't offered much leadership in recent action. During the early going financials looked like they would continue to provide support, but the sector has since been checked. It now trades with a fractional gain, which is generally in step with the broader market.

Despite lackluster action in the broader market, Treasuries remain under moderate pressure. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note has climbed to 3.75%, which is a three-week high. The action comes ahead of this afternoon's 30-year Bond auction results. DJ30 -5.82 NASDAQ -0.52 SP500 -1.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1071/842 mln/1417 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1274/316 mln/1594

11:00 am : The stock market has recovered from its morning slide, such that the major indices now trade at the unchanged mark. The move comes as the dollar pulls back into negative territory to trade with a fractional loss.

The market's upward move has been quite kind to retailers, which are now up a collective 0.5%. That has underpinned a 0.2% gain among consumer discretionary stocks.

However, tech stocks are up the most. The sector currently boasts a 0.3% gain. DJ30 +0.91 NASDAQ +1.37 SP500 -0.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1036/696 mln/1400 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1302/271 mln/1529

10:30 am : The US Dollar Index is back in negative territory, which is providing price support to most commodities.

Ahead of today's inventory data, April natural gas was just off recent morning lows of $4.501 per MMBtu at $4.529, down 0.6%. Following the data, which showed a draw of 111 bcf versus consensus of a draw of 110 bcf, natural gas ticked to new morning lows to $4.456, now down 1.6% to $4.486 per MMBtu.

April crude spent the majority of today's session in negative territory and is chopping around in morning trade. Crude put in session lows of $81.33 per barrel around the open of pit trade, but is currently at $81.84, down 0.3%.

April gold put in recent lows of $1100.50 per ounce and is currently down 0.1% at $1106.60 per ounce. May silver spiked in recent trade to fresh highs of $17.155 per ounce and is currently up 0.4% at $17.09 per ounce.DJ30 -23.73 NASDAQ -2.30 SP500 -2.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 860/516.3 mln/1541 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1026/210.7 mln/1760

10:00 am : Pressure has picked up a bit to take stocks another leg lower. Though the dip has been broad based so that all 10 sectors are now in the red, the overall scope of the slide remains relatively moderate.

While the broader market is down modestly, materials stocks are under considerable pressure. The sector is down 0.9% as steel stocks slide to a 1.1% loss and diversified metals and miners fall 1.4%. However, news of another earthquake in Chile could cause some price action in those stocks since Chile is a leading copper producer.

Early movers: Trading up -- SMTX +61.8%, TEAR +37.6%, TVL +10.8%, TRIB +10.2%, PUDA +9.4%, GEOY +9.3%, IMAX +8.2%, ATAI +7.8%, GYMB +7.5%, SNV +6.9%; Trading down -- YUII -22.8%, FMR -15.3%, JTX -14.5%, CSR -14.4%, WG -10%, BLT -8.8%, INOD -8.1%, ZAGG -8.1%, CLRT -7.6%DJ30 -49.05 NASDAQ -7.61 SP500 -4.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 723/345 mln/1618 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 876/150 mln/1851

09:45 am : The broader market is under a mild fit of pressure in the early going, but financials continue to trade with strength. The sector is up 0.2% at the moment; it is the only major sector in positive ground.

Strong gains in recent sessions have given the financial sector considerable momentum heading into this session. Including their modest move into the green this morning, the sector is up 1.7% week-to-date, whereas the broader market is up just 0.3% during that time. AIG (AIG 37.12, +0.88) has been a primary leader for the financial sector in recent sessions; its shares are up more than 30% week-to-date. DJ30 -25.92 NASDAQ -5.75 SP500 -2.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 658/210 mln/1590 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 770/100 mln/1880

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.80. Sliding stock futures suggest a lower start is in order for the session. The pressure comes after stocks in the broader market staged gains in eight of the past nine sessions, netting nearly 4% in gains during that time. The advances have the S&P 500 sitting just below its 52-week high, which was set in mid-January and represents a pivotal source of near-term resistance. Adding to this morning's selling interest is the recent rise in the Dollar Index, which had been flat for most of the morning, but recently made its way to a slight gain. The latest dose of economic data has done little to lift the spirits of premarket participants; initial weekly jobless claims were in-line with expectations and continuing claims totals were greater than expected. Economic data out of China showed a rapid rise in consumer and producer prices, which has fed concerns about tighter monetary policy in the country that many expect will lead the global economy out of recession.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.00. U.S. stock futures remain under moderate pressure. Europe's major bourses are grappling with similar selling. Germany's DAX is down 0.3% at the moment. Bayer AG and Siemens (SI) are presently primary laggards. In France, the CAC has shed 0.6% as its decliners take a 2-to-1 advantage over its advancing issues. BNP Paribas and Societe Generale are having the most adverse effect on trade, but GDF Suez is offering modest support. Britain's FTSE is down 0.7%. HSBC (HBC) is under considerable pressure. It is joined by natural resource plays Rio Tinto (RTP), BHP Billiton (BHP), and BP PLC (BP). In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.3%, but Japan's Nikkei gained a more impressive 1.0% to hit a seven-week closing high. Exporters were strong, but focus was on the Japan's fourth quarter GDP, which was revised lower to 0.9% from the preliminary 1.1% increase. Despite that, some reports indicate that Japan is expected to improve its outlook at its monthly meeting. Both Hong Kong's Hang Seng and mainland China's Shanghai Composite eked out 0.1% gains amid concerns regarding tighter monetary policy after it was learned that China's CPI increased a sharper-than-expected 2.7% year-over-year and its PPI climbed a sharper-than-expected 5.4% from the prior year. Additionally, urban fixed-asset investment came in better-than-expected with a 26.6% year-over-year increase. Industrial production for February came in at a weaker-than-expected 12.8% year-over-year increase, though. Analysts caution that the data were likely affected by China's Lunar New Year.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.50. Stock futures continue to trade with moderate weakness in the wake of the latest batch of economic data. Initial jobless claims for the week ended Mar. 6 totaled 462,000, which is on par with the 460,000 initial claims that had been expected, but down slightly from the 468,000 initial claims total that had been logged for the prior week. Continuing claims totaled 4.56 million, which is greater than the 4.50 million continuing claims that had been expected. It also marks an increase from the 4.52 million continuing claims that were registered for the previous week. Separately, the trade balance for January came in with a $37.3 billion deficit, which is not quite as deep as the $41.0 billion deficit that had been expected and less than the $40.2 billion deficit recorded for December.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.50. Stock futures are modestly lower at the moment. Corporate news flow continues to slow from the flurry of reports that accompanied earnings season. Overseas markets are a bit mixed as Europe's major bourses trade with varied losses and Asia's markets closed with varied gains. According to reports, China's consumer price index for February spiked 2.7% year-over-year. The rise was sharper-than-expected and marked an acceleration from the 1.5% year-over-year increase that was registered in January. Such data has been the cause of China's recent efforts to curtail lending in the country. However, China also reported that its February industrial production expanded at a softer-than-expected 12.8% from a year earlier. Meanwhile, reports indicate that Japan's economic growth for the fourth quarter was revised lower to a 0.9% increase from the preliminary 1.1% growth rate. However, other reports suggest the Japanese government is likely to upgrade its economic assessment in its monthly report. U.S. participants get a dose of their own data with the release of weekly jobless claims and the January trade balance at the bottom of the hour.

06:22 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.50.

06:22 am : Nikkei...10664.95...+101.00...+1.00%. Hang Seng...21228.20...+19.90...+0.10%.

06:22 am : FTSE...2627.84...-12.70...-0.20%. DAX...5936.45...-0.30...0.00.

Special thanks to Yahoo! Finance and CNNMoney for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1 708 572-4885
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