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 Post subject: March 5th Friday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +8.50
PostPosted: Sun Mar 07, 2010 5:04 pm 
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Written By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, although this journal contains advertisements involving my trade methods, it does contain useful trading tips a few times per week. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips that can improve your trading and understand that profitable trading involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader that's the same as my user name on twitter.

Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=72&t=463.

Quote:
Today's results are 5 wins : 1 loss. I had several schedule personal things to do today that involved resolving some computer problems with my network. In fact, it took me a few hours of work to ensure I didn't have a hacker on my wireless network. Simply, I missed most of the trend day and that prevented me from reaching my profit goal for the trading day.

Trading Tip: Understanding the price dynamics (why price does what it does) prior to the appearance of any trade signals will give you an edge when it's time to adapt in a changing market condition...markets that's always changing.[/urlnew]


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, if you're interested in having free access to one of my profitable trade strategies along with earning extra income with little effort...join my referral program @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ReferralProgram.htm

My Trading Performance: +8.50 points in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures
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Nasdaq At 18-Month High
By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
March 5, 2010: 5:39 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Friday, with the Nasdaq ending at an 18-month high, after a government report showed employers cut fewer positions last month than had been expected, in the latest sign that the pace of job cuts is slowing.

Treasury prices slumped, raising corresponding yields, as investors pulled money out of the supposedly safe haven and put it into stocks.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 122 points, or 1.2%. The S&P 500 index (SPX) added 16 points, or 1.4%. Both ended at the highest levels since Jan. 20.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 34 points, or 1.5%, closing at 2326.35, the highest point since Sept. 3, 2008, when it closed at 2323.73.

Stocks opened higher and built on those gains through the session, with a variety of stocks participating. On the Dow, 28 of 30 components rose, led by Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), American Express (AXP, Fortune 500), Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) and 3M (MMM, Fortune 500).

Wall Street ended higher for the week, with all three major gauges posting gains for the third of the last four weeks.

Stocks fell last week as a slew of worse-than-expected economic reports exacerbated worries that the market was too optimistic about the pace of an economic recovery.

But this week some of those worries have been soothed following a number of in-line or better-than-expected reports on manufacturing, inflation and the labor market.

Jobs report: Employers cut a net total of 36,000 jobs last month, after jobs fell by 26,000 in January, the government reported. That was short of the expected 68,000 jobs lost, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com.

The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, held steady at 9.7%, versus forecasts for a rise to 9.8%.

It was not immediately clear what kind of impact the severe storms on the East Coast last month had on the results. On the upside, the health care and business services industries had solid job growth. Also, the number of temporary workers increased, typically seen as a good sign that the job market is starting to recover.

"The big mystery is whether the weather dragged on payrolls," said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. "The way I look at it is that it didn't have a huge impact, but it's going to take another month to tell."

He said that the report overall added to other indications that the healing process in the labor market continues, including Wednesday's report on private-sector employment from payroll services firm ADP and Thursday's weekly jobless claims report.

"The question now is at what pace we're healing," he said.

In other news, the House opted to amend a $15 billion Senate job creation bill before passing it, delaying its passage until at least next week. The bill must now go back to the Senate for approval before President Obama can sign it into law.
Economic snow job

On the move: Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) shares gained 3.9% after the company said it would release its much-anticipated iPad tablet computer April 3.

Broadband services firm RCN (RCNI) has agreed to be taken private by ABRY Partners, in a deal worth $536 million in cash plus the assumption of debt. Shares of RCN rallied 23% in unusually active Nasdaq trading.

Biotech InterMune (ITMN) rallied 59% in unusually active Nasdaq trading on bets that pirfenidone, the company's treatment for lung scarring, could get FDA approval.

An FDA panel gave the drug a mixed review, saying there wasn't enough substantial evidence of the effectiveness of the drug to approve it. However, some investors were expecting an even more negative review and shares surged.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers five to one on volume of 1.05 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by over three to one on volume of 2.35 billion shares.
0:00 /1:34What's in the overdue jobs bill?

World Markets: In overseas trading, European markets rallied after Greece approved a package to save about $6.52 billion in budget costs and cut the country's ballooning deficit.

However, in Greece, the approval of the so-called austerity measures sparked riots in the streets as citizens opposed plans to hike taxes and cut workers' salaries.

The London FTSE gained 1.3%, Germany's DAX rose 1.4% and France's CAC 40 gained 2.1%.

Asian markets ended higher, with Japan's Nikkei gaining 2.2%.

The dollar and commodities: The dollar fell versus the euro and gained versus the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for April delivery rose $1.29 to settle at $81.50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for May delivery rose $2.10 to settle at $1,135.20 per ounce.

Bonds: Treasury prices tumbled, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 3.68% from 3.60% late Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : A smaller-than-expected decline in February nonfarm payrolls provided participants with a reason to bid stocks broadly higher, but financials booked the best gains for the second straight session.

Stocks spent the entire session in higher ground. The positive mood on Wall Street was reinforced by the latest Nonfarm Payrolls Report, which showed that just 36,000 jobs were lost in February when a decline of 68,000 had been widely expected. Additionally, the unemployment rate for February came in at 9.7%, which is below the 9.8% rate that had been widely forecast and unchanged from the January rate.

There had been some concern ahead of the jobs report that inclement weather in February might distort the figures, but a note from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicated that weather might not have been as large a factor as some had suggested. That helped legitimatize the smaller-than-expected drop in payrolls.

Though the unemployment rate still stands at an uncomfortable level, participants took heart that the data pointed to an improved outlook for the job environment.

Given that stronger labor conditions are expected to go hand in hand with a stronger economy, the greenback bounced from the flat line to a 0.4% gain as participants quickly considered the implications of a stronger economy on monetary policy. The dollar failed to sustain its gain, though; it finished fractionally lower.

Meanwhile, stocks put together their best percentage gain in two weeks as more than 90% of the names in the S&P 500 pushed higher. The stock market initially encountered some resistance, but it was able to regroup and climb to a new one-month high.

Financials provided leadership for the second straight session. This time they settled with a 2.0% gain as all 79 components in the S&P 500 financial sector advanced. Consumer finance stocks (+3.2%) were among the strongest performers, despite a downgrade of Capital One Financial (COF 37.94, +1.10) by analysts at Goldman Sachs.

Energy stocks weren't far behind. The sector advanced 1.8% with help from higher oil prices, which hit a fresh one-month high of $82.07 per barrel before they settled with a 1.6% gain at $81.50 per barrel.

Oil also provided support for the CRB Commodity Index, which closed with a 0.8% gain.

Trading volume remained rather unimpressive as little more than 1 billion shares exchanged hands on the NYSE this session. That has been a recurring theme, though. Specifically, trading volume this week averaged fewer than 1 billion shares per session.

Though the lack of participation would imply a lack of conviction among market participants, many investors still saw their money grow as the S&P 500 climbed to a weekly gain of more than 3%.

Advancing Sectors: Financials (+2.0%), Energy (+1.8%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.6%), Industrials (+1.5%), Tech (+1.4%), Materials (+1.4%), Health Care (+1.2%), Utilities (+1.1%), Consumer Staples (+0.5%), Telecom (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +122.06 NASDAQ +34.04 NQ100 +1.6% R2K +2.1% SP400 +1.5% SP500 +15.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2152/2.34 bln/554 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2581/1.05 bln/478

3:30 pm : An overall positive mood among market participants helped the CRB Commodity Index make its way to a 0.8% gain, which helped it secure a 0.8% weekly gain.

Oil was a primary source of strength for the CRB. Contracts closed pit trade with oil priced 1.6% higher at $81.50 per barrel. They had been as high as $82.07 per barrel, which marked a new one-month high.

Natural gas wasn't quite as strong, but prices were able to make their way up from negative territory to close with a fractional gain at $4.59 per MMBtu.

Gold prices also finished fractionally higher. They closed at $1137.50 per ounce.

Silver was much stronger. Prices for the precious metal settled pit trade at $17.39 per ounce, up 1.2%.DJ30 +104.98 NASDAQ +30.06 SP500 +13.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2086/1.92 bln/602 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2532/709 mln/510

3:00 pm : Stocks have climbed another step to trade at fresh session highs as they enter the final hour of the session. Eight of the 10 major sectors now sport gains of at least 1% -- only consumer staples (+0.4%) and telecom (-0.2%) lag.

Telecom has traded in the red for the entire session. Its weakness stems from losses among integrated telecom giants AT&T (T 24.91, -0.05) and Verizon (VZ 29.18, -0.09). DJ30 +107.24 NASDAQ +31.42 SP500 +14.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2072/1.74 bln/599 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2510/628 mln/527

2:30 pm : All three of the major indices have spent the entire afternoon trading in a tight range, which has made for rather anticlimactic action in the final session of the week.

However, the strong, steady gains have dropped the Volatility Index, often dubbed the Fear Index, for a 5.8% loss. The Volatility Index is now at a fresh one-month low. DJ30 +83.82 NASDAQ +28.05 SP500 +11.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2027/1.50 bln/627 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2454/565 mln/566

2:00 pm : Small-cap stocks are having an especially strong session, such that the Russell 2000 is up 1.7%. With a 55% surge, Intermune (ITMN 22.69, +8.08) is a primary leader among small-caps after documents were released to the FDA panel for a drug proposed by Intermune. Though Dow Jones repoted that the tone of the documents is not necessarily positive, the door is open for approval despite one of two late-stage trials failing to meet its goals. Additionally, Dow Jones reported that Oppenheimer raised its price target on shares of ITMN.DJ30 +85.10 NASDAQ +28.21 SP500 +11.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2027/1.47 bln/621 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2480/525 mln/521

1:30 pm : The stock market continues to sport strong, broad-based gains as it trades sideways in a narrow range. Should the gains hold, the stock market will finish the first week of March with a near 3% weekly gain.

The S&P 500 has actually advanced for six straight sessions, though the broad-based index settled this past Wednesday just less than a half point higher. The stock market hasn't made such an extended stretch of gains in months.DJ30 +86.76 NASDAQ +28.69 SP500 +12.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2013/1.35 bln/642 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2501/485 mln/504

1:00 pm : A better-than-expected monthly jobs report has helped stocks make their way to a fresh one-month high. Commodities have shared in the strength.

The latest Nonfarm Payrolls Report showed that 36,000 jobs were lost in February, but that was less than the expected decline of 68,000 so participants have treated the announcement as encouraging news, which reinforced the already positive mood that had been displayed ahead of the opening bell.

Buyers have responded by driving 90% of the components in the S&P 500 to higher ground. That helped the stock market push through resistance to its best level since mid-January.

Financials have found favor among buyers. In turn, the sector has jumped out to a 1.5% gain, which comes on top of the sector's 0.9% gain in the prior session. The sector is on track for a weekly gain of more than 3%.

Energy stocks lagged in the previous session, but have also garnered support this session. The sector is up 1.5% with help from higher oil prices, which were last quoted at $81.40 per barrel, up 1.5%.

Oil's gain has complemented those among other key commodities, all of which have combined to drive the CRB Commodity Index to a 0.7% gain. It had been up more than 1% earlier in the session, though.

Gains by commodities come as the dollar oscillates. The greenback swung from the flat line to a gain of 0.4% in the minutes that followed the release of the jobs report. The dollar later retreated into the red, but it has since made its way back to neutral ground. DJ30 +85.78 NASDAQ +27.51 SP500 +11.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1972/1.24 mln/644 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2489/445 mln/496

12:30 pm : The CRB Commodity Index has pulled back a bit. It now trades with a 0.7% gain after it was up more than 1% in recent action. The dip comes as the dollar makes its way up from negative ground and back to the neutral line, which is where it had initially traded this morning.

Meanwhile, stocks continue to trade with strength, but they are also off of their session highs.

As a result of strength among stocks and commodities, Treasuries have been under pressure. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is down 22 ticks. That puts its yield back near 3.70%. DJ30 +83.44 NASDAQ +25.74 SP500 +10.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1962/1.15 bln/639 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2483/410 mln/486

12:00 pm : The stock market has drifted off of its session high, but broad-based gains remain as 90% of the components in the S&P 500 sport gains. Such positive market breadth has helped take the stock market to a year-to-date gain of 1.0%; stocks struggled to become year-to-date positive earlier this week. The stock market is also at a fresh one-month high and less than 2% below its 52-week high, which was reached in mid-January. DJ30 +81.70 NASDAQ +24.27 SP500 +10.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1902/1.02 bln/650 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2448/375 mln/512

11:30 am : All three major indices are trading near session highs with broad-based gains. The mood this session has been positive since the opening bell.

Commodities are also strong. As such, the CRB Commodity Index is up 1.1%. Its strength is linked to that of the broader market, but it has also been helped by a pullback in the greenback, which now trades with a a 0.2% loss after it had been up as much as 0.4% earlier this morning. The dollar's decline comes chiefly as a result of gains by the euro and British pound. DJ30 +93.19 NASDAQ +25.68 SP500 +11.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1889/881 mln/622 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2463/324 mln/469

11:00 am : Financials have jumped out to a 1.4% gain, which has helped take the broader market another leg higher. Financials also provided leadership in the prior session.

Strength in the financial sector is broad, but consumer finance stocks, which are up 2.5%, are among the primary sources of support. The advance by consumer finance stocks comes even though analysts at Goldman Sachs downgraded shares of Capital One Financial (COF 37.41, +0.57).

Meanwhile, telecom stocks make up the only sector to trade with a loss. As a group, telecom is down 0.2%. Telecom is also the worst performing sector this year; it is down more than 10% since the start of 2010.DJ30 +91.90 NASDAQ +25.01 SP500 +11.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1859/750 mln/628 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2440/272 mln/464

10:30 am : The US Dollar Index is pulling back off of fresh session highs, which is pushing most commodities to new morning highs.

April crude oil traded flat overnight and in the early part of the morning. Around 30 minutes before the open of pit trading, the energy component rose sharply and has rallied since, hitting fresh session highs of $82.07 per barrel. In current trade, crude is just under those highs at $81.88 per barrel, up 2.1%.

April natural gas broke out of negative territory earlier this morning and hit today's highs of $4.63 per MMBtu approximately 20 minutes after pit trading began. Natural gas tried to hold gains, but is now down modestly at $4.57 per MMBtu, down fractionally.

April gold and May silver are back in the black after quickly falling into negative territory about two hours ago. Gold hit fresh morning highs of $1140.40 per ounce moments ago and is currently 0.6% higher at $1140.10 per ounce. Silver fell earlier, but only dipped into the red for a moment. It has since recovered to sport a 1.7% gain at $17.47 per ounce.

In shipping, the Baltic Dry Index continued its recent run overnight, gaining 121 points, or 3.9%, to close at 3,242 and break above its 200-day sma around 3,135.

It has gained a whopping 19.8% in only six sessions. All four subindices advanced for the fourth consecutive session, and for the third day in a row they were led by a surge in the Capesize, which rallied 5.4% to 3,923. The Panamax is up 14 consecutive sessions, in which time it has gained 33.0%. The Handysize is up 12 consecutive sessions, in which time it has gained 22.1%. Finally, the Supramax is up 13 consecutive sessions, in which time it has gained 21.9%.
DJ30 +89.11 NASDAQ +25.00 SP500 +11.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1811/562.0 mln/613 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2381/206.1 mln/477

10:00 am : The S&P 500 recently ran into resistance at the 1130 line, but it has since regained its momentum to make a modest push past the line. Energy stocks (+1.2%) and materials stocks (+1.1%) continue to provide leadership.

Strength among natural resource plays comes in the face of a moderately stronger dollar, which is currently up 0.2% against a basket of foreign currencies. The greenback had been up roughly 0.4% at its morning high. DJ30 +66.28 NASDAQ +17.60 SP500 +8.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1638/330 mln/671 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2217/128 mln/542

09:45 am : Stocks started the session on a strong note, but have eased back a bit as the gap up by the S&P 500 runs into resistance at the 1130 line. Nonetheless, gains remain broad-based with energy stocks and materials stocks providing leadership.

After lagging in the previous session, energy stocks are up 0.9% at the moment. The sector has been helped by a rally in oil prices, which were last quoted 1.7% higher at $81.60 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the materials sector has made its way to a 0.8% gain amid strength in steel stocks, which are up a collective 2.1%. DJ30 +49.43 NASDAQ +11.60 SP500 +5.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1413/159 mln/762 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2019/76 mln/633

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.30. Stock futures are off of their morning highs, but they still point to a strong start for the session. The positive mood among premarket participants has been supported by a smaller-than-expected decline in February nonfarm payrolls. There had been plenty of concern that the tally would be distorted by inclement weather, but a note from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicated that weather might not have been as large a factor as some had suggested. The jobs report has been the primary focus of participants this morning, especially in the absence of any meaningful corporate headlines. But while the report has been a source of strength ahead of the opening bell, participants ought to remain cognizant of the efforts of profit takers, especially since stocks may have already priced in the news. After all, the S&P 500 has already advanced for five straight sessions (including a fractional gain this past Wednesday) and looks like it will open the session at a one-month high.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.50. U.S. stock futures continue to trade firmly higher in the wake of a better-than-expected February payrolls report. The report has also helped Europe's major bourses secure solid gains. The EuroStoxx is currently up 0.8% as Irish banks surge. Meanwhile, Britain's FTSE is up 0.8%. HSBC (HBC), Barclays (BCS), and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) are primary leaders. Miners BHP Billiton (BHP), Rio Tinto (RTP), and Xstrata are also strong. In Germany, the DAX is up 0.8% at the moment. Deutsche Bank (DB) is strong amid news that there will be no material impact from a downgrade by Moody's Investors Service. A stronger-than-expected 4.3% surge in German factory orders during January has helped reinforce the positive mood among participants. France's CAC is up 1.2% as ArcelorMittal (MT), BNP Paribas, and Societe Generale provide leadership. Veolia Environnement has lagged, though; it reported disappointing annual income. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.7% in the final session of the week. In Japan, the Nikkei spiked 2.2% amid news that the Bank of Japan is considering steps to ease monetary policy. That weakened the yen, which helped exporters like Kyocera (KYO), Canon (CAJ), and Sony (SNE). In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed with a 1.0% gain. Premier Jiabao reaffirmed Beijing's monetary and fiscal policies to help lift mainland bank stocks like China Construction Bank. ICBC was also strong, but surrendered some of its gains. Meanwhile, mainland China's Shanghai Composite closed with a tepid 0.3% gain.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.50. The government's official Nonfarm Payrolls Report showed 36,000 job losses for February. That was less than the expected decline of 68,000. Nonfarm job losses for January were revised to 26,000 from 20,000. The unemployment rate for February came in at 9.7%, which is below the 9.8% rate that had been widely forecast, but unchanged from the rate reported in January. Meanwhile, the average weekly hours worked for all employees during February came in at 33.8, which is above the 33.7 that had been forecast. However, the average for February marks a decrease from the average of 33.9 weekly hours during January. Stock futures spiked to morning highs in the moments that immediately followed the headlines, but they have since eased back a bit. Meanwhile, the dollar has climbed to a 0.3% gain against competing currencies.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.00. Financials helped lift the stock market to a modest gain late in the prior session. That move has extended into this morning's premarket trade as stock futures sport a healthy lead over fair value. However, participants face a major hurdle in the latest monthly payrolls report, which is due at the bottom of the hour. The consensus call is for 68,000 nonfarm job losses, but there is uncertainty whether inclement weather during February will distort the tally. The reaction to the number will be telling of the mood underlying the market, but given the circumstances surrounding the number, participants may start to look ahead to the next report. For now, though, the overall mood remains moderately positive as overseas markets sport solid gains and the dollar trades flat against competing currencies.

06:23 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.30.

06:23 am : Nikkei...10368.96...+223.20...+2.20%. Hang Seng...20787.97...+212.20...+1.00%.

06:23 am : FTSE...5561.36...+34.30...+0.60%. DAX...5825.53...+30.40...+0.50%.

Special thanks to Yahoo! Finance and CNNMoney for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1 708 572-4885
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