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 Post subject: February 19th Friday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +12.10
PostPosted: Sat Feb 20, 2010 8:01 am 
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Written By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, although this journal contains advertisements involving my trade methods, it does contain useful trading tips a few times per week. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips that can improve your trading and understand that profitable trading involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader that's the same as my user name on twitter.

Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=71&t=453.

Quote:
Today's results are 6 wins : 0 losses. I had no distractions today other than a minor problem with a new monitor/drivers installation that had to be completed during the trading day. I didn't catch any runners (big trades) but I was able to exploit some key changes in supply/demand from the inside gap we had today on the regular session chart. In fact, it's currently my bread winner but I don't trade it as often as I want. With that said, the price rise between 1020am - 1220pm est should provide a few key price areas to look for trades or as profit targets on Monday as long as a gap doesn't appear too far away at the opening bell on the regular session chart.

Trading Tip: Self-taught is often more costly than using a trader mentor to learn how to trade. However, if you're going to use a mentor...use an in person mentor instead of an online mentor. Yet, an online mentor is good for followup or review of what was learned in the in person mentoring. More info about the differences between in person mentoring versus online mentoring @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=36&t=534


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, if you're interested in having free access to one of my profitable trade strategies along with earning extra income with little effort...join my referral program @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ReferralProgram.htm

My Trading Performance: +12.10 points in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures
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Stocks Make It 4 for 4 Rally
By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
February 19, 2010: 5:43 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks ended higher Friday, marking the fourth straight day of gains, but investors were cautious buyers at the end of a big week that included the Fed's decision to boost the emergency bank lending rate.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 9 points, or 0.1%. The 30-share blue chip index gained 303 points for the week, its biggest one-week point gain since November.

The S&P 500 index (SPX) edged up 2 points, or 0.2%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 2 points, or 0.1%.

U.S. stock futures had tumbled overnight on the Fed news, pushing stocks lower at the open, which had been expected. But the knee-jerk reaction gave way to a more measured take as Friday's session wore on, since it won't impact borrowing costs for consumers or businesses.

"This wasn't unexpected, we know the medicine can't stay in the system forever," said Rob Lutts, chief investment officer at Cabot Money Management. "But this is just a first step, one that's symbolic but not hugely meaningful."

He said that the move doesn't mean the Fed plans to raise the more influential fed funds rate anytime soon.

Stocks have been on the rise lately, with the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 gaining during all four sessions in a holiday-shortened trading week. The major gauges ended higher for the second week in a row after a four-week rout driven by worries about slowing growth in China and Greece's debt problems spreading to the rest of the euro zone.

In that month-long decline, the S&P 500 lost 9.2%, coming close to the technical definition of a correction.
Fed boosts discount rate

Fed: The central bank said late Wednesday that it is raising the discount rate, the rate it charges banks seeking emergency loans, by a quarter-percentage point, to 0.75%.

The bank said the change reflects improvements in the economy and not a move toward tighter policy. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke had indicated that a move was coming last week. However, such changes typically don't occur between Fed meetings and the timing of the move surprised markets.

The move doesn't have much impact on banks on a day-to-day basis and won't hike consumer or corporate borrowing costs. The more widely used fed funds rate, the overnight rate banks charge each other, is expected to remain at historic lows near zero for the foreseeable future.

"I think the market realizes that this is not a watershed event," said John Canally, economist at LPL. "It's another step in the process toward removing all the emergency measures put in place during the crisis."

However, the move seemed to unsettle the forward-looking markets, and several Fed officials sought to calm any jitters, including St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard.

Bullard, who is a voting member of the Fed's policy setting committee, said that worries about a rise in the fed funds rate this year are overblown. Atlanta Fed president Dennis Lockhart said the action should not be interpreted as a tightening of monetary policy or a sign that it is imminent, but rather a "normalization step."

The move was the first time the Fed lifted any of its lending rates since the financial crisis first hit in 2007. It was the first time there was any change at all in rates since December of 2008.
0:00 /6:46Wall Street's crying game

World Markets: Asian markets tumbled overnight on worries about the Fed, but European markets managed to erase losses and turn higher by the close.

Inflation: The government's reading on consumer inflation showed pricing pressure remains minimal. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 0.2% in January after rising 0.2% in December. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought it would rise 0.3%.

The so-called core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, fell 0.1% after rising 0.1% in December. Economists thought it would rise 0.1%.

Dell: After the close Thursday, Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) reported weaker quarterly earnings and higher revenue, both of which beat analysts' estimates. But investors took a sell the news approach, sending shares lower Friday.

The dollar and commodities: The dollar fell versus the euro and the yen, erasing morning gains.

U.S. light crude oil for March delivery rose 75 cents to settle at $79.81 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for April delivery rose $3.30 to settle at $1122 per ounce.

Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.77% from 3.80% late Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by nearly three to two. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by a narrow margin on volume of 2.14 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : The Fed's decision to hike the discount rate after the prior session's close stirred market participants to dump stocks in pursuit of the dollar, but the dollar inevitably drifted lower and stocks managed to recover and finish the week with their fourth straight gain.

Given that the Fed's decision to lift the discount rate to 0.75% from 0.50% marked the first rate hike in one year, participants panicked a bit and made a knee-jerk decision to sell stocks. The announcement shouldn't have come as a complete surprise, though. After all, Fed Chairman gave market participants a clue during his recent testimony before the House Financial Services Committee that a modest increase in the spread between the discount rate and the target federal funds rate was expected before long.

Still, to help quell concern about what may be in store, the Fed expressed that its decision was not a signal for any change in the economy or monetary policy. Several Fed officials made similar, separate comments of their own about how to interpret the move, but many seemed to ignore the notion that the increased discount rate was a tacit sign that the financial system is back on firmer footing.

In conjunction with the announcement the dollar was pushed higher, such that the Dollar Index climbed as much as 0.5% to new multimonth highs and even broke through a key technical resistance level that restrained its gain in the previous session. However, the greenback eventually rolled over and finished at a session low with a 0.5% loss against a basket of foreign currencies.

A softer-than-expected inflationary reading played a hand in the dollar's downturn. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January made a 0.2% monthly gain, which was slightly below the 0.3% increase that had been widely expected. Excluding food and energy, consumer prices for January actually slipped 0.1% month-over-month, instead of the 0.1% monthly increase that economists had forecast.

As the dollar surrendered its gain, stocks were able to regroup and make a broad-based bounce to positive territory. The move took the S&P 500 above its 50-day moving average to a one-month high, but buyers didn't step in at the higher price points to help stocks extend the move into something more meaningful. As a result, stocks traded with choppy action into the close and left the stock market to settle with a modest gain, in-line with its 50-day moving average. Still, that was enough to give the stock market its fourth straight advance and a weekly gain of more than 3% -- its best weekly performance in three months.

Advancing Sectors: Utilities (+1.4%), Financials (+0.6%), Industrials (+0.5%), Materials (+0.5%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.4%), Energy (+0.2%), Consumer Staples (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Telecom (-0.3%), Health Care (-0.2%), Tech (-0.1%)DJ30 +9.45 NASDAQ +2.16 NQ100 0.00% R2K +0.4% SP400 +0.5% SP500 +2.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1385/2.13 bln/1230 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1793/1.12 bln/1227

3:30 pm : The dollar's retreat from an overnight gain of 0.5% against competing currencies to its current 0.4% loss has helped win broad support for commodities. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index tacked on 0.6% to settle above its 50-day moving average and close out the week with a weekly gain of nearly 4%.

Oil underpinned the CRB's strength once again. The commodity climbed 0.9% to finish the session at $79.81 per barrel. That left it nearly 8% higher for the week.

Natural gas underperformed considerably, though. Prices for the commodity pulled back 2.4% to $5.05 per contract, which translates to a weekly loss of nearly 8%.

As for precious metals, gold prices climbed 0.3% to settle pit trade at $1122.10 per ounce, while silver prices settled a sharp 2.2% higher at $16.41 per ounce. DJ30 -6.72 NASDAQ -1.76 SP500 +0.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1356/1.71 bln/1259 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1692/815 mln/1323

3:00 pm : Stocks head into the final hour with modest, but broad-based gains. Though action this afternoon's action has been rather slow, the tone is much improved from that of this morning, when participants had engaged in a knee-jerk selling effort after the Fed announced a 25 basis point increase to its discount rate. The discount rate is what the central bank charges depository institutions to borrow from it.

The improved tone has come about as the dollar extends its slide from its overnight highs. It is now at a fresh session low with a 0.4% loss against a basket of foreign currencies. DJ30 +12.70 NASDAQ +2.46 SP500 +2.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1401/1.57 bln/1213 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1787/759 mln/1214

2:30 pm : The Dow and Nasdaq both retreated to the neutral line in recent action, but the S&P 500 has managed to remain in a stronger position although it is also off of its session high.

Meanwhile, small-caps and mid-caps are trading with relatively solid gains as both the Russell 2000 and S&P 400 trade sport a 0.4% gain. Small-caps and mid-caps are also up since the start of the new year; they are up 1.0% and 1.8%, respectively. The broad-based S&P 500 is down 0.5% in 2010, though. DJ30 +10.51 NASDAQ +3.20 SP500 +2.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1385/1.45 bln/1209 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1782/713 mln/1233

2:00 pm : Stocks continue to drift slowly from their session highs, which were reached shortly after 12:00 PM ET. The gradual descent has taken the telecom sector to a 0.5% loss, the health care sector to a 0.2% loss, and the tech sector to a 0.1% loss.

Utilities continue to trade with enviable gains, though. The sector is up 1.4%, which is more than twice the gain of the next best performing sector (financials, +0.6%). DJ30 +7.49 NASDAQ +3.27 SP500 +2.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1347/1.35 bln/1223 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1773/677 mln/1217

1:30 pm : Stocks have started to drift down from their recent trading range, despite a deepening loss in the Dollar Index, which is now down 0.3% to a session low.

While stocks have moved off of their session high, comodities have managed to tick higher. As such, the CRB Commodity Index is up 0.6% to a fresh session high. Its advance puts it above its 50-day moving average and at its best level in almost one month. DJ30 +18.14 NASDAQ +3.73 SP500 +3.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1358 /1.26 bln/1189 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1803/640 mln/1179

1:00 pm : News that the Fed hiked its discount rate by 25 basis points initially caused a spike in the dollar and knee-jerk selling of stocks. However, the greenback has since retreated and stocks have rebounded.

Following the prior session's close the Fed spooked investors with its decision to hike its discount rate to 0.75% from 0.50%. The Fed attempted to quell concern about tighter monetary policy in the near future with its statement that the move was not any a signal for any change in the economy or monetary policy.

Despite such statements, participants still reacted to one of the Fed's first rate hikes in one year by bidding the dollar higher and shunning stocks. That effort drove the greenback through technical resistance to fresh multimonth highs against competing currencies.

However, the greenback has since pulled back amid comments from several Fed members that the hike in the discount rate isn't a move toward tighter monetary policy. Additionally, some came to reconsider the Fed's move as a more tacit indication that the financial system is on more stable ground. The dollar is now down roughly 0.1% against a basket of foreign currencies after it had been up as much as 0.5%.

The dollar's downward drift was also helped by the midmorning release of the January CPI as the headline CPI number increased slightly less than expected and the core reading showed a surprise decline.

Stocks have responded by bouncing up from their morning slide, which took the major indices to a modest loss. The S&P 500 has since entered into a narrow trading range just above its 50-day moving average, which caused technical resistance in the previous session.

Though stocks seem to be seeking direction at the moment, they stand at one-month highs.

Unlike recent sessions, trading volume has been strong. However, participants shouldn't read too much into that since this is an options-expiration session. DJ30 +35.52 NASDAQ +6.56 SP500 +4.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1397/1.15 bln/1127 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1847/602 mln/1111

12:30 pm : Stocks continue to ascend, but the climb has been rather choppy. Still, stocks are near fresh sessin highs amid help from a weaker dollar, which has slipped into the red to trade with a 0.1% loss against competing currencies after it had been up as much as 0.5%.

The dollar's dip has been particularly beneficial to natural resource plays. As such, the materials sector is up 0.8%. Steel stocks continue to be a primary source of support for the sector -- they are up 3.6% at the moment. DJ30 +35.00 NASDAQ +7.01 SP500 +4.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1375/1.05 bln/1119 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1841/565 mln/1107

12:00 pm : The S&P 500 recently curtailed its advance upon running into the 1110 mark. However, stocks have since regrouped to push through that line and the S&P 500's 50-day moving average, which caused technical resistance in the previous session.

The latest leg up puts stocks at their best level in roughly one month.

Strength has been broad based, but utilities stocks continue to outperform. The sector, which is actually one of the smallest by market weight, is now up 1.5%. DJ30 +24.11 NASDAQ +6.41 SP500 +3.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1319/924 mln/1157 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1723/517 mln/1192

11:30 am : The stock market has successfully pushed into positive territory amid a dip by the dollar back toward its session low. The dollar now trades with a fractional gain against competing currencies.

The greenback's pullback has helped bring about some broad-based buying, which has put nine of the 10 major sectors in the green. The effort has helped financials recover from early losses to trade with a solid 0.6% gain, which is second only to the utilities sector. Utilities, traditionally a defensive-oriented sector, are now up a collective 1.4%.

Tech, -0.1%, is the only major sector still in the red. Its weakness has caused the tech-rich Nasdaq to lag the other major indices by a slight margin. DJ30 +17.46 NASDAQ +2.15 SP500 +2.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1155/795 mln/1287 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1566/465 mln/1320

11:00 am : Stocks have rebounded from their recent drop, but were unable to extend the move into positive territory. Instead, the S&P 500 has drifted downward after it ran into resistance at the neutral line.

Utilities stocks have made their way back into higher ground, however. The sector is now up 0.8%, while the other major sectors trade in mixed fashion. DJ30 -7.93 NASDAQ -4.70 SP500 -1.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 999/653 mln/1398 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1247/403 mln/1589

10:30 am : Following the Fed's announcement last night that it was raising the discount rate to 0.75% from 0.50%, the US Dollar Index hit a high not seen since June 15. The dollar continues to trade higher today, and is currently up 0.3% at 81.190.

The Index has pulled back from its overnight high, which has pushed commodities somewhat higher, except for natural gas. March crude traded in the red all night before gaining strength earlier this morning, pushing the energy component into positive territory. Currently, crude is at $79.27 per barrel, down 0.3%. March natural gas has traded in negative territory all session today and is just off recently hit lows of $5.036 per MMBtu. Natural gas is currently 1.8% lower at $5.081 per MMBtu.

April gold and March silver also picked up steam after hitting overnight lows of $1099.30 per ounce and $15.76 per ounce, respectively. Both precious metals have pushed back near the unchanged line as gold is trading 0.04% lower at $1114 per ounce and silver is trading $0.01 lower at $16.05 per ounce.

In other commodity-related action, the Baltic Dry Index gained 0.4%. Only the Capesize Subindex declined -- it fell 1.5% after five straight sessions of advances, which combined for a near 11% gain. DJ30 -25.09 NASDAQ -8.10 SP500 -2.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 826/495.9 mln/1479 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1015/347.3 mln/1780

10:00 am : The stock market has pulled back after it had trimmed some of its opening loss, but utilities stocks have managed to resist most of the move. The sector is now down a tepid 0.1%, but that is the slightest decline of any major sector.

PG&E Corp (PCG 42.84, +0.33) is a primary leader among utilities plays after the company announced this morning better-than-expected adjusted earnings of $0.80 per share. The company also reaffirmed an in-line earnings outlook, but gave investors an additional treat by boosting its quarterly dividend to $0.455 per share from $0.42 per share.

Early movers: Trading up -- SII 13.40% DRAM 9.82% INTU 7.75% AGP 7.36% SOMX 6.76% HITT 6.58% SAPE 6.34% NR 6.31% ARUN 5.87%; Trading down -- ES -21.7%, MMSI -16.9%, CSIQ -15.1%, SLXP -13.7%, NANO -11.5%, ELGX -9.8%, APOL -8.8%, FSLR -8.1%, FRZ -7.9%

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Energy (-0.6%), Tech (-0.5%), Health Care (-0.5%), Telecom (-0.5%), Materials (-0.5%), Consumer Staples (-0.4%), Industrials (-0.3%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.3%), Financials (-0.2%), Utilities (-0.1%)DJ30 -38.61 NASDAQ -11.36 SP500 -5.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 795/336 mln/1451 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 883/292 mln/1838

09:45 am : Broad market indices currently trade with modest losses, but underlying action is rather mixed.

Materials stocks, which were the best performers in the previous session, are up to a 0.2% gain as steel stocks (+1.2%) continue to garner support. Retailers are also relatively strong in the wake of a better-than-expected bottom line from JCPenney (JCP 27.74, +1.78); retailers are up a collective 0.4%.

Health care stocks are weak, however. The sector currently lags with a 0.5% loss, worse than any other major sector. DJ30 -12.16 NASDAQ -4.20 SP500 -1.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 903/221 mln/1256 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1171/254 mln/1416

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.50. Stock futures were sent sharply lower overnight as news that the Fed has tacked on 25 basis points to its discount rate, which now stands at 0.75%, caused a knee-jerk reaction that sent the dollar higher and stock prices lower. The reaction was somewhat natural in that market participants face a change in the environment after going roughly one year without a rate hike. To that point, though, the Fed made sure to say that the move was not any a signal for any change in the economy or monetary policy. Fed members have also stepped out to indicate that the increase to the discount rate is not a move in tigher monetary policy. Additionally, some have considered the Fed's move as a tacit indication that the financial system is on more stable ground. Such consideration has caused the dollar to pull back from its overnight high, which put the Dollar Index at a fresh multimonth high, and helped stock futures to recover some of their morning losses. A surprise decline in the core CPI for January has also helped improve the mood among premarket participants. However, a lower start to the session still looks to be in order.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.30. U.S. stock futures continue to move toward the flat line. Meanwhile, Europe's major bourses are mixed. Specifically, Germanany's DAX is down 0.1% as its components balance the line between positive and negative territory. Such is also the case in France, where the CAC is up 0.1%. Societe Generale is a primary source of support for the second straight session. Britain's FTSE is also well balanced in terms of advancing issues and decliners, but it has managed to make a 0.1% gain. According to reports, U.K. retail sales fell sharply in January by 1.8% from the previous month. That was the sharpest monthly drop since February 2009. Meanwhile, Times Online reported that concern about the weakness of Britain's economic recovery grew as new figures showed that bank lending to businesses slumped at a record rate of 4.3 billion pounds in December, pushing the annual decline to 8.1%, which is the biggest drop since records began in 1999. In Asia, both the MSCI Asia Pacific Index and Japan's Nikkei fell 2.1%, dragged down by knee-jerk selling in response to the move by the U.S. Federal Reserve to add 25 basis points to its discount rate. Mitsubishi Corp and Mitsui & Co (MITSY) were among the weaker performers, as were bank stocks. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng shed 2.6%. Banks were among its weakest performers as the Fed's move rekindled fears of further tightening measures in China. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite remained closed for holiday observance.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.00. Stock futures continue to climb off of their morning lows. The latest leg has come amid a the latest dose of consumer price data. Specifically, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January increased 0.2% month-over-month, but that was a slightly softer increase than the 0.3% rise that had been widely expected. It did mark a moderate acceleration from the 0.1% monthly increase that had been registered in December. Excluding food and energy, consumer prices for January actually slipped 0.1% month-over-month, instead of the 0.1% monthly increase that economists had forecast. The January core reading also marked a retreat from the 0.1% month-over-month increase that was posted in December.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.00. The Fed came out after the prior session's close to announce that it has raised the discount rate to 0.75% from 0.50%, but it indicated that the move was not any a signal for any change in the economy or monetary policy. While federal funds futures suggest that there will be no change at the Fed's next meeting, there has been a moderate increase in the implied probability of a hike at subsequent meetings. That was enough to help boost the greenback overnight and send the Dollar Index through the resistance levels that it faced in the previous session to a multimonth high. The dollar has since eased back, but it still trades with a 0.2% gain against competing currencies. The greenback's retreat from its overnight high has helped stock futures make their way up from morning lows, but the dollar's remaining gain and the specter of higher interest rates continues to keep stock futures weighed down. Still to come this morning is the January CPI reading (8:30 AM ET) and fourth quarter mortgage delinquencies data (10:00 AM ET).

06:22 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.50.

06:22 am : Nikkei...10123.58...-212.10...-2.10%. Hang Seng...19894.02...-528.10...-2.60%.

06:22 am : FTSE...5309.53...-15.60...-0.30%. DAX...5655.12...-25.10...-0.40%.

Special thanks to Yahoo! Finance and CNNMoney for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1 708 572-4885
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