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 Post subject: February 18th Thursday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +3.00
PostPosted: Fri Feb 19, 2010 3:37 am 
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Written By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, although this journal contains advertisements involving my trade methods, it does contain useful trading tips a few times per week. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips that can improve your trading and understand that profitable trading involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader that's the same as my user name on twitter.

Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=71&t=452.

Quote:
Today's results are 4 wins : 2 losses : 2 breakevens. It's still a busy week for me with lots of distractions. I have relatives visiting for one day and missed the first 20 mins of trading along with missing most of the p.m. trading session. In fact, I was in a Long position that I had to exit early due to distractions...a trade that would have produced big profits had I stayed in it. In hindsight, would have been better to take the entire day off from trading instead of trying to squeeze in a few trades here and there.

Trading Tip: Sharing trade strategies and mentoring are not the same. Mentoring involves learning how to trade (the business of trading) whereas sharing trade strategies involves only one aspect of trading called technique. Sports Analogy - There's a difference between learning how to play football versus learning the rules of the game.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, if you're interested in having free access to one of my profitable trade strategies along with earning extra income with little effort...join my referral program @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ReferralProgram.htm

My Trading Performance: +3.00 points in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures
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Stock Rally: Three Days And Counting
By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
February 18, 2010: 6:35 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Thursday, ending higher for the third-straight session, as investors continued to dig back in after a month long retreat that left the Dow and other major indexes at three-month lows.

After the close, the Federal Reserve said it is raising the discount rate, the emergency rate it charges banks seeking loans, by a quarter-percentage point, to 0.75%. The Fed said the move reflects improvements in the economy. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated a move was coming late last week, however, such changes typically don't occur between Fed meetings.

The move does not reflect a change in policy, the central bank said, and won't impact consumer or corporate borrowing costs. The more widely used fed funds rate, the overnight rate banks charge each other, is expected to remain at historic lows near zero for the foreseeable future.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 84 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 index (SPX) added 7 points, or 0.7%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) added 15 points or 0.7%.

Stocks had been volatile through the early afternoon as investors eyed Wal-Mart's cautious outlook, a jump in weekly jobless claims and a rise in a key inflation indicator. A strong dollar had pummeled commodities and oil and metal stocks.

But the dollar wavered in the afternoon, allowing the heavily-weighted energy and metal stocks to rise. Other gainers on the day were concentrated in the bank and tech sector. Hewlett-Packard's quarterly results also added to the day's gains.

After the close, Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) reported weaker quarterly earnings and higher revenue, both of which beat analysts' estimates.

Stocks gained Wednesday thanks to a better-than-expected housing report, a mixed forecast from the Federal Reserve and some upbeat company news. The gains followed a big rally Tuesday.

"The market was due for a rally after all the selling over the last few weeks, so you're seeing a few days of gains," said Sean Kraus, chief investment officer at CitizensTrust.

But Kraus said that there were still questions about the same issues that have been dragging on the market over the last few weeks. They include whether Greece's debt crisis is indicative of a bigger problem in Europe and what China's decision to pull back bank lending will mean.

Add in Thursday's weekly jobless claims report and Wal-Mart's outlook and "it all makes the recovery look tentative," Kraus said. "When that happens, the market doesn't know what to do."

Between recent rally highs hit on Jan. 19 and the lows of early February, the S&P 500 slumped over 9%, while the Nasdaq and Dow lost over 7%. But in the last two weeks stocks have recovered, with the Dow now just over 330 points away from its 2010 high of 10,725.43.

Jobs: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment rose to 473,000 last week from a revised 442,000 in the previous week. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected 438,000 claims.

Continuing claims, a measure of Americans who have been receiving benefits for a year or more, held steady at 4.563 million versus forecasts for a drop to 4.5 million.
Stimulus: One year later

Quarterly results: Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly earnings and revenue that topped expectations, after the close Wednesday. The company also boosted its outlook for the full year. HP shares rose 1.4%.

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly earnings that topped estimates on higher quarterly revenue that missed estimates.

The company also said that sales at stores open a year or more, a retail metric known as same-store sales, fell 1.6% for the quarter, the first quarterly decline. Same-store sales were flat for the year.

Looking out, the company said its U.S. business was likely to continue to struggle in the tough economy. Wal-Mart forecast first-quarter earnings of between 81 cents and 85 cents per share versus forecasts for 85 cents. Wal-Mart shares fell 1.1%.

On the move: AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) said it will keep up to 25% of the controversial assets that nearly caused its demise, after previously planning to sell off its entire derivatives portfolio. The company now says it will hold onto up to $500 billion in assets so as to take advantage of the recent recovery in credit markets.

AIG shares fell less than 1%.

General Growth Properties rebuffed No. 1 mall operator Simon Property Group (SPG)'s $10 billion buyout offer, saying that the company's objectives were "not aligned with ours." General Growth, the No. 2 mall operator, filed for bankruptcy last April after it failed to pay off its debt.

27 of 30 Dow stocks rose, led by Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), Travelers Companies (TRV, Fortune 500), 3M (MMM, Fortune 500) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500). HP's better-than-expected quarterly results fueled its stock gains.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers seven to three on volume of 960 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners by three to two on volume of 1.46 billion shares.

Economy: Other economic reports released Thursday included the Producer Price index (PPI), a measure of wholesale inflation, the Philadelphia Fed index, a regional reading on manufacturing and the index of leading economic indicators (LEI).

PPI rose a seasonally adjusted 1.4% in January, versus forecasts for a rise of 0.8%. PPI rose 0.4% in the previous month. The so-called core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.3% versus forecasts for a rise of 0.1%. Core PPI was flat in December.

LEI rose 0.3% in January after rising 1.2% in December. Economists thought it would rise to 0.5%.

The Philadelphia Fed index rose to 17.6 in February from 15.2 in January. Economists thought it would rise to 17.

Deficit: President Obama issued an executive order for the formation of a bipartisan debt panel, after the Senate voted last month to kill plans to create a similar commission.

World markets: In overseas trading, European markets rallied, with the London FTSE 100 up 0.9%. Asian markets tumbled, with the exception of the Japanese Nikkei, which gained 0.3%.
0:00 /3:13A close look at the dollar's power

The dollar and commodities: The dollar gained versus the euro and the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for March delivery rose $1.73 to settle at $79.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for April delivery fell $1.40 to $1118.70 per ounce. Gold had fallen in the morning after the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday that it would sell another 191.3 tons of gold on top of the 212 tons it has sold since September.

Bonds: Treasury prices tumbled, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 3.80% from 3.74% late Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Image

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Broad-based buying helped both the Dow and the Nasdaq Composite close above their 50-day moving averages for the first time in almost one month, but the S&P 500 was met with resistance as it encountered the technical hurdle. Nonetheless, stocks still booked their third straight gain.

Stocks chopped along in a tight trading range for the first part of the session as participants tried to take their cues from fluctuations in the dollar. Relative to a basket of foreign currencies, the greenback oscillated between a gain of 0.4% and a loss of 0.2% before it settled with a fractional loss.

Though the dollar's final pullback brought buyers into the market, there didn't appear to be much conviction behind the move. In fact, fewer than 1 billion shares traded hands on the NYSE this session. It marked the most thinly traded session in one month.

Still, stocks were able to make to make a broad-based advance that saw advancing issues outnumber decliners by 3-to-1 in the S&P 500. Despite such positive market breadth, the S&P 500 couldn't push through its 50-day moving average, which stands at 1108. The line also marks an approximate 60% retracement of the stock market's slide from its January high to its February low. The line will almost certainly come back into play tomorrow.

Materials stocks (+1.2%) were the best performers of the session as gold stocks (+2.5%) bounced on better-than-expected earnings from Barrick Gold (ABX 39.23, +1.37) and Kinross Gold (KGC 18.86, +0.36). Steel stocks (+2.7%) were helped by an upgrade of Nucor (NUE 43.62, +1.18) by analysts at Bank of America's Merrill Lynch.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 50.81, +0.69) helped the tech sector make its way to a 0.8% gain, thanks to better-than-expected earnings and upside guidance, but it wasn't much of a leader for the broader market.

Wal-Mart (WMT 53.47, -0.59) also failed to inspire. The retail giant posted better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter and issued in-line guidance, but its fourth quarter U.S. comparable store sales fell more than expected.

Despite listless action among stocks and lack of conviction among participants, the stock market was still able to shrug off a flurry of disappointing data.

Specifically, weekly jobless claims for the week ended Feb. 13 totaled 473,000. That was up 31,000 from the previous week and worse than the 438,000 claims that had been widely forecast. Continuing claims came in at 4.56 million, which is unchanged from the previous week, but a bit worse than the 4.50 million continuing claims that many had come to expect.

The Producer Price Index for January spiked 1.4% month-over-month, which is sharper than the 0.8% increase that had been expected. Excluding food and energy, producer prices increased 0.3% month-over-month, which is a more rapid clip than the 0.1% monthly increase that had been expected after the core measure of producer prices was flat in the prior month.

Meanwhile, leading indicators increased 0.3% in January, but the pickup wasn't as strong as the 0.5% increase that was expected. It also marked a sharp pullback from the 1.2% increase that was posted in the prior month.

The Philadelphia Fed Index for February was the only economic report that exceeded expectations. It came in at 17.6, which topped the 17.0 that had been expected. It also marked an improvement from the 15.2 that was posted in January.

Amid the disappointing data and the stock market's advance, Treasuries had a tough session, which sent the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note up to 3.80% for the first time in more than one month.

In other trade, commodities had a generally solid session as the CRB Commodity Index advanced 0.8% to a fresh three-week high. It closed at its 50-day moving average.

Crude oil was a primary source of support for the CRB's gain. Prices settled pit trade 2.2% higher at $79.06 per barrel, even though the latest batch of weekly inventory data showed a larger-than-expected build of 3.085 million barrels. DJ30 +83.66 NASDAQ +15.42 NQ100 +0.7% R2K +0.7% SP400 +0.6% SP500 +7.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1543/2.05 bln/1074 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2107/960 mln/929

3:30 pm : Precious metals opened at session lows and pared their losses throughout the session as the dollar pared its gains. News that the IMF would be selling bullion also added to the negative bias in gold overnight. April gold finished essentially unchanged at $1118.70 per ounce. March silver closed 0.2% lower at $16.06 per ounce.

Energy commodities closed 0.8% higher this session as both crude oil and natural gas inventory data was released this morning, due to delays from Monday's holiday. Natural gas futures traded sharply lower following the reported inventory draw, which was expected. March natural gas is down about 7% over the last three sessions after closing 3.9% lower at $5.17 per MMBtu. Crude oil rallied to its best level in a month despite seemingly bearish inventory data. March crude oil closed up 2.2% at $79.06 per barrel. The March contract is up almost 14% since breaking below the $70 level on Feb. 5.DJ30 +76.33 NASDAQ +13.27 SP500 +6.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1392/1.66 bln/1195 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1969/676 mln/1048

3:00 pm : Stocks have slowly extended their recent advance, such that all three major indices are at fresh session highs. However, the pace of the ascent has slowed a bit as the S&P 500 runs into its 50-day moving average. The S&P 500 last traded above that key line roughly one month ago. Additional technical resistance for the S&P 500 stands around the 1108 line, which marks an approximate 60% retracement of the stock market's slide from its January high to its February low.

This afternoon's move has come without any major, market-moving news item. Nonetheless, it has been broad based with buyers showing a willingness to step and offer their support even after stocks push through earlier highs. DJ30 +77.85 NASDAQ +14.70 SP500 +7.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1391/1.53 bln/1194 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2002/617 mln/999

2:30 pm : Stocks recently took a bit of a breather after breaking free from their afternoon trading range, but they have since spiked another leg higher to fresh session highs. The move has also put the S&P 500 up to a fractionally improved one-month high and just a few points below its 50-day moving average.

The stock market's advance comes as the greenback pulls back to trade with a fractional loss after it had traded with a modest gain for most of the afternoon. Prior to its afternoon gain, the dollar had spent most of the morning oscillating from positive to negative territory. DJ30 +65.15 NASDAQ +10.56 SP500 +5.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1309/1.37 bln/1250 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1913/551 mln/1059

2:00 pm : Stocks have climbed out of their recent trading range to reach an afternoon high, but broad market gains remain modest. The materials sector, which holds a mere 3.5% of the weight in the S&P 500, has made its way to a 1.1% gain, though. It is the best performing sector this session.

Telecom, which represents less than 3.0% of the market weight in the S&P 500 and is the least weighted sector, is still down 0.4%. It is the only major sector in negative territory. DJ30 +41.87 NASDAQ +5.70 SP500 +2.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1233/1.25 bln/1330 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1801/503 mln/1163

1:30 pm : Stocks are still stuck in a narrow trading range, but the broader market continues to sport a slight gain. Materials stocks are up a healthy 0.6%, but their lack of weight in the broader market has kept it from acting as an actual leader. DJ30 +26.08 NASDAQ +2.73 SP500 +1.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1148/1.17 bln/1388 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1696/462 mln/1261

1:00 pm : Despite some disappointing data, stocks have managed to spend most of the session modestly higher. However, fluctuations by the dollar have left stocks to chop listlessly in a tight range.

Stocks started the session lower as participants reacted negatively to news that weekly jobless claims totals exceeded expectations. A sharper-than-expected monthly increase in producer prices didn't win support for stocks, either, but it did drive the Dollar Index higher for a moment.

The greenback's advance ran into resistance as the Dollar Index climbed to a 0.4% gain and came in close contact of its multimonth highs. Unable to extend the move, the greenback retreated to a loss and led stocks to bounce higher. Both moves proved short lived as the dollar has since made its way back to a modest gain and the broader equity market has pulled back to trade with a fractional gain.

Stocks have lacked leadership for the second straight session. Better-than-expected earnings and upside guidance from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 50.29, +0.17) has been met with relative indifference by the broader market.

Wal-Mart (WMT 53.22, -0.84) also failed to inspire. It posted better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter and issued in-line guidance, but its fourth quarter U.S. comparable store sales fell more than expected.

Despite the dollar's return to higher ground, gold stocks have fared well. That's largely due to upbeat results from Barrick Gold (ABX 39.02, +1.16) and Kinross Gold (KGC 19.04, +0.54).

Energy stocks (-0.2%) have lagged for the entire session as Pride International (PDE 28.90, -1.83) and Williams Companies (WMB 21.68, -0.71) are shunned for their earnings misses. Not even a 1.0% gain in oil prices to $78.10 per barrel has been a source of support to the sector -- oil prices are actually up despite a larger-than-expected build in weekly inventories.

Despite the broader market's listless action and tepid gains, Treasuries have been under considerable pressure this session. As a result, the benchmark 10-year Note's yield has run up to 3.80% for the first time in more than one month. DJ30 +17.69 NASDAQ +1.32 SP500 +0.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1133/1.09 bln/1387 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1677/428 mln/1271

12:30 pm : Stocks have entered into a rather narrow trading range, which stands slightly above the neutral line. Though the stock market is up only a bit, its gains are relatively broad based as eight of the 10 major sectors sports a gain -- energy (-0.3%) and telecom (-0.4%) are the two lagging sectors.

Meanwhile, Treasuries have been under considerable pressure this session. As a result, the benchmark 10-year Note's yield has run up to 3.80% for the first time in more than one month. DJ30 +18.97 NASDAQ +2.75 SP500 +1.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1131/1.01 bln/1379 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1688/395 mln/1229

12:00 pm : The dollar has made up the ground that it lost this morning, and then some. In turn, the Dollar Index is up 0.3%, which puts it back near its session highs. However, the Dollar Index continues to face technical resistance at this level.

Despite the greenback's gain and a larger-than-expected build in weekly oil inventories, oil prices continue to trade with strength. Oil was last quoted at $78.10 per barrel, up 1.0%. Despite such a feat, energy stocks continue to lag the broader market as oil and gas storage and transportation stocks (-1.5%) trade with weakness. Williams Companies (WMB 21.76, -0.63) is a primary source of weakness in the group, due to worse-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter. DJ30 +28.34 NASDAQ +4.19 SP500 +1.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1168/920 mln/1317 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1692/358 mln/1233

11:30 am : Shares of food processing players HJ Heinz (HNZ 45.43, +0.41) and Hormel (HRL 42.34, +1.75) are among this session's better performers. Heinz has won support with help from its upside guidance, while Hormel raised its guidance for fiscal 2010 after it announced earnings that bested Wall Street's expectations for the latest quarter.

Meanwhile, retail giant Wal-Mart (WMT 53.22, -0.84) has been a laggard this session. The company posted better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter and issued in-line guidance, but announced that its fourth quarter U.S. comparable store sales fell more than expected. DJ30 +20.18 NASDAQ +3.36 SP500 +1.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1151/795 mln/1292 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1653/316 mln/1217

11:00 am : Stocks recently rolled after they had staged a modest rally on the back of a drop in the dollar, but they have since rebounded to trade with a modest gain.

Energy stocks (-0.3%) continue to lag, but that is primarily due to some disappointing earnings reports out of the group. That has overshadowed stronger oil prices, which were last quoted at $78.05 per barrel, up 0.9%. The increase in oil prices comes even though the latest weekly inventory report showed that crude oil increased by 3.085 million barrels, which is far more than the consensus call for a build of 1.725 million barrels. The inventory report is typically released on Wednesdays, but this week's report had been postponed due to observance of Presidents Day this past Monday. DJ30 +22.83 NASDAQ +4.19 SP500 +2.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1158/676 mln/1234 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1629/268 mln/1193

10:30 am : A sharp decline in the US Dollar Index just over an hour ago pushed most commodities notably higher. Crude was already gaining strength beforehand and was heading back to the unchanged line, but the drop in the Dollar Index helped extend those gains, which pushed March crude into positive territory and to fresh morning highs of $78.71 per barrel. Currently, crude is trading 0.9% higher at $77.99 per barrel ahead of weekly inventory data (Consensus build of 1725K), which comes out at 11:00am ET.

March natural gas has been weak this morning and hit session lows of $5.296 per MMBtu a few hours ago. Ahead of weekly data, where consensus is calling for a draw down of 190 bcf, natural gas was trading 1% lower at $5.331 per MMBtu. Following the data, which showed a draw of 190 bcf, natural gas fell to new session lows of $5.265 per MMBtu and is currently off 1.7% at $5.296 per MMBtu.

Precious metals also benefitted from the dollar's earlier decline as April gold pushed back to the unchanged line. However, gold has since pulled back and is sitting under the flat line at $1117.30 per ounce, down 0.3%. March silver pushed into positive territory for the first time this session on the dollar's decline earlier this morning. Silver moved to fresh session highs of $16.265 per ounce and is currently. DJ30 +14.44 NASDAQ -0.99 SP500 +0.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 970/494.2 mln/1350 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1429/198.6 mln/1360

10:05 am : The dollar has made a meaningful pullback to trade with a 0.3% loss against competing currencies after it ran into resistance near multimonth highs, which were challenged ahead of the opening bell. However, its retreat has helped bring about support for the broader market, such that stocks have rallied from their opening losses. Materials stocks have garnered the most support -- the sector is up to a 0.7% gain.

In the latest batch of data, the Philadelphia Fed Index for February came in at 17.6, which is better than the 17.0 reading that had been expected. It also marked an improvement from the 15.2 that was posted in January.

Meanwhile, leading indicators for January showed a 0.3% increase, which isn't quite as strong as the 0.5% increase that was expected. It was also a sharp pullback from the 1.2% increase that was posted in the prior month.

Early movers: Trading up -- ZNT +30.5%, BEAT +11.2%, PCLN +9.1%, ITRI +5.7%, CECO +5.4%, GPI +5.4%, ASTC +5.4%, ABB +5.3%; Trading down -- XNPT -64%, CSCX -22.3%, DEPO -12.3%, NHWK -11.7%, WCG -9.6%, CAB -8.9%, VDSI -8.7%, AAP -7.8%

Advancing Sectors: Materials (+0.7%), Industrials (+0.6%), Utilities (+0.5%), Health Care (+0.4%), Consumer Staples (+0.3%), Telecom (+0.2%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.1%), Tech (+0.1%), Financials (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: (None)
Unchanged: EnergyDJ30 +42.32 NASDAQ +1.43 SP500 +3.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1013/336 mln/1217 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1639/138 mln/1046

09:45 am : A recent pullback by the greenback has helped stocks recover from their premarket losses. Still, overall action is a bit mixed as the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 are evenly divided between positive and negative territory.

The materials sector is out to a 0.5% gain, which is the best of any major sector at the moment. In addition to the dollar's downturn, the sector has been helped from leadership among steel stocks (+0.8%) and gold stocks (+1.2%). Barrick Gold (ABX 38.65, +0.79) and Kinross Gold (KGC 18.85, +0.35) are primary leaders in the bunch, thanks to their better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter.

Consumer discretionary plays are most out of favor. The sector is down 0.3% as casinos and gaming stocks (-1.7%) slip in the wake of earnings misses from MGM Mirage (MGM 10.97, -0.66) and tepid numbers from Las Vegas Sands (LVS 16.18, -1.28).DJ30 -0.37 NASDAQ -4.29 SP500 -0.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 792/170 mln/1308 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1254/85 mln/1332

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.50. A lower start to the session looks to be in order since a disappointing weekly jobless claims tally dragged down stock futures. A sharper-than-expected increase in producer prices during January didn't help. In turn, premarket participants have generally dismissed Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Wal-Mart's (WMT) latest quarterly reports, which were solid, but came amid a largely mixed batch of other announcements. Additionally, overseas markets haven't offered much support to the mood this morning and moderate strength in the dollar could also make for a hurdle.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.00. U.S. stock futures continue to trade with weakness in the wake of some disappointing data. The data has also dragged down European markets. As such, Germany's DAX currently trades with a slight gain, but Deutsche Bank (DB) continues to provide leadership to the German bourse. Shares of DB have advanced almost 8% on the DAX this week. Daimler (DAI) has dropped, though. The automaker reported a loss for its latest quarter and proposed cancellation of its 2009 dividend. In France, where the CAC is up fractionally, Societe Generale posted an improved profit, but cut its dividend. Meanwhile, BNP Paribas continues to provide support. BNP has seen its stock climb more than 9% week-to-date on the CAC. Meanwhile, Britain's FTSE is up 0.4% at the moment. Energy outfit BP PLC (BP) is a primary source of support. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index shed 0.5%, but Japan's Nikkei mustered a 0.3% gain. Kubota was a strong performer, though. It was helped by an upbeat quarterly report from competitor Deere & Co. (DE). Separately, Japan's central bank opted to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.1% and held off on any new initiatives, as widely expected. Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.5% in light trade. Shares in Sands China, the Macau unit of Las Vegas Sands (LVS), tumbled after the parent company reported disappointing results on Wednesday. Wynn Macau fell in sympathy. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite was closed for holiday observance.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.00. Stock futures recently made a sharp, downward move in the wake of the latest dose of economic data. Specifically, weekly jobless claims for the week ended Feb. 13 totaled 473,000, up 31,000 from the previous week and worse than the 438,000 claims that had been widely forecast. Continuing claims came in at 4.56 million, which is unchanged from the previous week and a bit worse than the 4.50 million continuing claims that many had come to expect. Separately, the Producer Price Index for January made a 1.4% month-over-month spike, which is sharper than the 0.8% increase that had been expected. It also marks an acceleration from the 0.4% monthly increase that was registered in December. Excluding food and energy, producer prices increased 0.3% month-over-month, which is a more rapid clip than the 0.1% monthly increase that had been expected. The core measure of producer prices for December was flat. DJ30 prior close NASDAQ prior close SP500 prior close

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.30. Stock futures are narrowly mixed at the moment. Both Wal-Mart (WMT) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) exceeded earnings expectations for the latest quarter, but HP augmented its quarterly report with upside guidance. Applied Materials (AMAT) also issued upside guidance, which came on top of in-line quarterly earnings. However, several energy-related players disappointed as Pride Interntational (PDE), Noble Energy (NBL), and Williams Companies (WMB) all came short of the consensus earnings estimate. In addition to the flurry of earnings reports this morning, a barrage of economic data is on deck. Producer price data is due at the bottom of the hour, along with weekly jobless claims numbers. The Philadelphia Fed Index for February and the January Leading Indicators Report follow at 10:00 AM ET. Weekly natural gas data is due at 10:30 AM ET, then oil inventory data at 11:00 AM ET.

06:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.30.

06:30 am : Nikkei...10335.69...+28.90...+0.30%. Hang Seng...20422.15...-111.90...-0.50%.

06:30 am : FTSE...5307.78...+31.10...+0.60%. DAX...5668.77...+20.60...+0.40%.

Special thanks to Yahoo! Finance and CNNMoney for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

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