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 Post subject: February 16th Tuesday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +1.50
PostPosted: Fri Feb 19, 2010 2:27 am 
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Dow In Triple-Digit Rally
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By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
February 16, 2010: 6:31 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Tuesday as better-than-expected quarterly results from Merck and Barclays reassured investors, and the weaker dollar boosted commodity prices and shares.

A bigger-than-expected rise in a measure of manufacturing activity in the New York area and some strength overseas added to the momentum.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 170 points, or 1.7%, for its biggest one-day point gain since Nov. 9.

The S&P 500 index (SPX) rose 19 points, or 1.8%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 30 points, or 1.4%.

"Between the good manufacturing report this morning, international markets rising and people wanting to come back in after a holiday weekend, there were plenty of reasons for stocks to rise today," said Kenny Landgraf, principal and founder at Kenjol Capital Management.

The stock advance was broad based, with 28 of 30 Dow components rallying, led by Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), United Technologies (UTX, Fortune 500), Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500), 3M (MMM, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) and Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500).

Dow component Merck also rose after its quarterly results. Dow financial companies gained too, including American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), as part of a bigger run in the sector after British bank Barclays said profit more than doubled last year.

The KBW Bank (BKX) sector index added 2.9%.

Wall Street managed gains last week, after four weeks of declines, but the advance was tepid amid worries about China's plans to curb lending and the threat of Greece's debt crisis spreading. Those worries were set aside Tuesday as investors focused on some of the stocks that were hit in the recent selloff.

Landgraf said that there had been so much bad news over the last few weeks in terms of issues abroad that most people who were going to sell already did it. Since about the middle of last week, the tone has been better, with buyers starting to come back in at lower levels.

"Generally speaking, people are in a period of readjusting and reevaluating what credit issues are out there," said Bernard McGinn, CEO at McGinn Investment Management. "In the last few days, we had a hint that the EU won't let Greece go down and that's providing some reassurance."

Between rally highs hit on Jan. 19 and the lows of early February, the S&P 500 fell more than 9% and the Dow and Nasdaq lost more than 7%.

U.S. markets were closed Monday for Presidents Day.
0:00 /2:38Uncertainty rings on the floor

Quarterly results: A handful of influential companies report results this week, although the bulk of the reporting period has already passed.

Two Dow companies released results Tuesday morning.

Merck (MRK, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly revenue that beat estimates on higher earnings that were in line with analysts' estimates. The drugmaker said it won't issue 2010 guidance until April. Shares gained 2%.

Kraft Foods (KFT, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly earnings that topped estimates on higher quarterly revenue that missed analysts' estimates.

The food maker said the sale of its frozen pizza business to Nestle (NSRGY) will cut 5 cents per share from earnings annually, but its recent buy of British chocolate maker Cadbury will speed up long-term growth. Shares ended slightly lower.

With 379 companies, or 76%, of the S&P 500 having reported, fourth-quarter earnings are on track to have risen 208% from a year earlier, according to Thomson Reuters. Revenues are set to rise 8%. Stripping out the buoyant financial sector, earnings are set to rise 16% and revenues 3%.

Other company news: No. 1 shopping mall owner Simon Property Group (SPG) made a $10 billion hostile bid for troubled rival General Growth Properties. The deal would allow the No. 2 owner of malls to emerge from bankruptcy. Simon shares gained just short of 4%.

Manufacturing: The Empire State index, a read on manufacturing in New York State, rose to 24.91 in February from 15.92 previously. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought it would rise to 18.
Is it time to dump my gold?

World markets: In overseas trading, European markets ended higher and Asian markets finished mixed.

The dollar and commodities: The dollar gained versus the euro, recovering after sliding against the European currency in the morning. The dollar gained versus the Japanese yen.

The dollar's weakness versus the euro gave a boost to dollar-traded commodity prices.

U.S. light crude oil for March delivery rose $2.88 to settle at $77.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for April delivery rose $29.80 per ounce to settle at $1,119.80.

Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.66% from 3.69% late Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions. The Treasury market was closed on Monday for Presidents Day.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers five to one on volume of 1.08 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners nine to on volume of 2.04 billion shares.

Image

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Stocks finished at session highs in their best single-session percentage advance in three months as buyers returned from an extended weekend to offer stocks broad-based support.

Nearly 95% of the names in the S&P 500 booked gains this session, but the strongest moves were made by energy plays, which advanced a collective 2.7%. The move was helped by a 3.9% spike in crude oil prices, which settled pit trade at $77.01 per barrel.

Oil helped the CRB Commodity Index extend its gains from last week by another 2.6%, which marks the CRB's best single-session gain by percent since mid-November, to a two-week high, such that it now stands just below its 50-day moving average.

The bid for commodities was supported by weakness in the U.S. dollar, which retreated a sharp 0.9% against a basket of foreign currencies. The move marked the dollar's worst drop since late November and a weak follow through from the gains that posted last week, when the Dollar Index hit a multimonth high as global participants sought safety amid uncertainty surrounding Greece's fiscal health. Neither a specific plan nor a concrete development regarding the matter has been unveiled.

In corporate news, better-than-expected earnings from British banking giant Barclays (BCS 19.03, +2.35) helped win support for shares of lenders and diversified banks. In turn, all 24 members of the KBW Bank Index advanced and gave the KBW a 2.9% gain -- its best single-session percentage move in more than one month.

Shared strength among banking issues helped JPMorgan Chase (JPM 40.07, +1.12) overcome early weakness, which followed news that it will pay nearly $1.7 billion for the Asian and European operations of the RBS-Sempra commodities joint venture. The company later announced that its net credit losses for January spiked to 10.91% from 7.11% in December, but its shares still finished with a near 3% gain at their session high.

Though strength was broad based this session, Dow component Kraft (KFT 28.97, -0.12) was unable to find support. Though it posted a solid quarterly report, it was one of only two Dow components to log a loss this session.

Pfizer (PFE 17.72, -0.08) was the other Dow component to book a loss. It failed to attract support from fellow pharmaceutical giant Merck (MRK 37.66, +0.74), which offered investors in-line earnings results for its latest quarter. Though MRK booked a gain, it wasn't enough to help the health care sector keep up with the broader market. Health care, as a group, advanced 0.9%, which is about half of what the broader market gained. DJ30 +169.67 NASDAQ +30.66 NQ100 +1.3% R2K +1.7% SP400 +1.6% SP500 +19.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1923/2.03 bln/755 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2526/1.08 bln/511

3:30 pm : Strength in the market this session is being led by the commodities space. A sell-off in the dollar index has led to a 2.6% increase in the CRB commodity index.

Precious metals ripped higher this session as the dollar sold off. March silver closed 4.5% higher at $16.15 per ounce and April gold closed 2.7% higher at $1119.80 per ounce.

Crude oil also saw a substantial move higher. March crude oil found resistance at $77.00 per barrel after rising nearly $3.00 on the session. It remained near that level for the rest of the session before closing at $77.01 per barrel, up 3.9%.

Natural gas was one of the two commodities to trade lower this session (aluminum was the other). Natural gas sold off in the late morning and closed down 2.7% at $5.32 per MMBtu. DJ30 +146.32 NASDAQ +25.86 SP500 +16.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1785/1.62 bln/888 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2126/707 mln/600

3:00 pm : The S&P 500 recently pushed through the 1091 line, but as resistance intensified stocks returned to their recent trading range, which has spanned just a few points and lasted the entire afternoon.

Strength remains broad based, but energy stocks currently sport the best gains as the energy sector climbs 2.4%. Within the energy sector, oil and gas explorers are the strongest performers; they are up a collective 3.1% as the likes of Apache Corp (APA 103.68, +4.10) and Anadarko Petroleum (APC 67.74, +2.42) offer leadership. DJ30 +131.96 NASDAQ +23.89 SP500 +15.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1728/1.48 bln/934 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2384/640 mln/633

2:30 pm : The S&P 500 continues to trade along the 1090 mark in a rather narrow range. Though this session's gains have stocks above last week's highs, the stock market still has a ways to go before it returns to its monthly highs, or its 50-day moving average, which was violated in late January.

Meanwhile, the greenback continues to trade with considerable weakness, such that the Dollar Index is down 0.9% in its worst single-session percentage loss since late November. The greenback's pullback comes after the Dollar Index hit a multimonth high last week; those gains came largely as global participants sought safety in the dollar amid the uncertainty that surrounded Greece's fiscal health. There still have yet to be any specific plans or concrete developments in regard to the matter. DJ30 +121.98 NASDAQ +22.42 SP500 +14.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1709/1.35 bln/939 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2386/590 mln/621

2:00 pm : Better-than-expected earnings from British banking giant Barclays (BCS 18.85, +2.17) have helped win support for shares of lenders and diversified banks. In turn, all 24 members of the KBW Bank Index are in higher ground. Such strength has helped take the KBW to a 2.5% gain -- its best single-session percentage advance in roughly three weeks.

Managed care providers are at the opposite end of the spectrum. Weakness in the space has taken managed care providers to a collective loss of 1.7%. Such weakness has hampered the health care sector, which is up 0.5%, but well behind the broader market. DJ30 +126.14 NASDAQ +22.89 SP500 +15.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1706/1.26 bln/925 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2372/539 mln/633

1:30 pm : The stock market currently trades at the top of its recent trading range, which has been rather narrow in that it has spanned less than three points. The sideways movement comes as stocks consolidate this session's gains, which have been both strong and broad based. As such, 13 stocks in the S&P 500 have set fresh 52-week highs this session.

While stocks continue to trade with strength, Treasuries have managed to undo some mild, early weakness. More specifically, the benchmark 10-year Note had been down roughly three-to-four ticks in the early going, but has since moved into positive ground to trade with a five-tick gain. DJ30 +126.52 NASDAQ +22.55 SP500 +15.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1726/1.17 bln/908 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2365/499 mln/616

1:00 pm : Participants have returned from an extended holiday weekend to offer stocks broad-based support.

Despite a higher start, early action was a bit choppy. However, the stock market was able to secure support as it came in contact with last week's highs. The ensuing advance has been largely led by natural resource plays. As such, energy stocks are up 2.0% and materials stocks are up 1.8%. Their gains have been underpinned by broader market support and higher commodity prices, which have the CRB Commodity Index up 2.6% and on track for its best single-session percentage gain in three months. The CRB is currently at a new two-week high.

Support for commodities has been helped by a sharp 0.8% retreat by the greenback against a basket of foreign currencies. What's more, though, is that the gain by commodities comes on top of their 3.6% advance last week.

Meanwhile, buying in the broader market has more than 90% of the companies in the S&P 500 in positive ground and 29 of the 30 Dow stocks in the green. Kraft (KFT 28.52, -0.57) is the only Dow component currently in the red. Its weakness comes even though the food giant announced this morning upbeat earnings for its latest quarter and stated that it targets continued growth.

Fellow Dow component Merck (MRK 37.84, +0.92) posted in-line earnings results for its latest quarter.

There's been a bit of merger and acquisition news for participants to trade this session. Specifically, Simon Property Group (SPG 74.14, +2.14) has offered to acquire General Growth Properties (GGWPQ 11.68, +2.28) in a deal worth more than $10 billion, including $9 billion in cash. Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase (JPM 39.72, +0.77) will pay nearly $1.7 billion for the Asian and European operations of the RBS-Sempra commodities joint venture.

In a less fortuitous development, JPMorgan announced that its net credit losses for January spiked to 10.91% from 7.11% in December.

Fellow global banking giant Barclays (BCS 18.71, +2.03) made headlines with news that its profit for 2009 spiked more than what had been expected. Its shares have surged in response and offered support to the major European bourses, which booked strong gains.

As an aside, a few of Asia's major markets were closed for holiday observance, which left those that were open to see little participation. DJ30 +122.06 NASDAQ +21.85 SP500 +13.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1695/1.08 bln/909 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2342/450 mln/627

12:30 pm : Stocks continue to trade near session highs as more than 90% of the companies in the S&P 500 sport gains. As for the Dow, Kraft (KFT 28.57, -0.52) is the only one of its members to trade in the red. Kraft's weakness comes even though the food giant announced this morning upbeat earnings for its latest quarter and stated that it targets continued growth.

During its conference call, Kraft highlighted the strength of its base business, which it believes was a selling point for the future success of the company's integration of Cadbury. According to statements made during the call, Kraft's interest in Cadbury is all about growth. DJ30 +123.57 NASDAQ +22.13 SP500 +14.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1686/988 mln/903 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2356/410 mln/610

12:00 pm : Shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM 39.37, +0.42) had lagged during most of the early action, but the stock recently spiked to trade with a gain of more than 1%. The diversified financial services giant has made headlines with news that it will pay nearly $1.7 billion for the Asian and European operations of the RBS-Sempra commodities joint venture.

More recently, the company announced that its total January delinquencies that exceed 30 days fell 19 basis points to 4.75%, but its net credit losses spiked to 10.91% from 7.11% in December.

Unlike the broader market, shares of JPM have not been able to push above their highs from last week. DJ30 +121.83 NASDAQ +22.54 SP500 +13.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1661/888 mln/890 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2324/365 mln/627

11:30 am : Following a recent dip, stocks have regained their upward momentum to establish a new session high. Stocks still have a ways to go before they return to their monthly high, though. Still, strength this session remains broad based.

Financials (+1.1%) and tech issues (+1.2%) are among the most actively traded names by volume this session. Specifically, that list is headed by Citigroup (C 3.25, +0.07) and Bank of America (BAC 14.87, +0.42), then Intel (INTC 20.78, +0.35), Cisco (CSCO 23.90, +0.14), and Qualcomm (QCOM 39.24, +0.40).

Trading volume in the overal market is relatively strong. Just two hours into trade, more than 300 million shares have exchanged hands on the NYSE. DJ30 +112.10 NASDAQ +21.32 SP500 +13.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1633/775 mln/909 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2290/315 mln/656

11:00 am : Stocks recently extended their morning gains to reach a fresh session high, but they have since eased back a bit. This morning's advance remains broad based with advancing issues outnumbering decliners by more than 12-to-1.

Steel stocks are among the best performers in the broader market. They are currently up a collective 4.4% as AK Steel (AKS 23.15, +1.47) and U.S. Steel (X 50.75, +2.77) show strength. AK Steel recently announced it will increase spot market base prices.

Strength among steel stocks has helped the materials sector make its way to a 1.6% gain. Only the energy sector, which is up 1.8%, sports a better gain. DJ30 +97.87 NASDAQ +17.79 SP500 +11.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1573/626 mln/917 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2181/256 mln/686

10:30 am : Commodity prices have spiked this session. That has the CRB Commodity Index up 1.7% to a fresh two-week high.

Oil is one of the strongest plays in the commodity complex this session. As such, crude oil prices were last quoted 3.6% higher at $76.71 per barrel.

As for natural gas prices, they are up fractionally to $5.48 per contract.

Precious metals prices are also up handsomely. Gold was last quoted at $1117 per ounce, up 2.6%, while silver was last quoted at $15.21 per ounce, up 4.5%. DJ30 +78.38 NASDAQ +14.34 SP500 +9.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1503/447 mln/935 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2110/191 mln/727

10:00 am : Action has become a bit choppy this morning, but the stock market managed to find support as a recent pullback put it in contact with last week's highs.

Amid the choppy trade, volatility has picked up, such that the Volatility Index trades with a 2.5% increase.

Early movers: Trading up -- TRA +21.2%, ENT +16.8%, CPSL +14.4%, AEIS +10.8%, NIHD +10.8%, BCS +10.3%, GNVC +9.3%; Trading down -- PNCL -15.3%, RIGL -8.3%, STEC -7.7%, CBZ -7.4%, OTE -6.6%, NBG -6.3%, CFP -6.3%, PMI -5.8%DJ30 +74.07 NASDAQ +10.63 SP500 +8.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1452/290 mln/901 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2050/133 mln/715

09:45 am : Stocks are up in broad-based fashion during the early going, but natural resource plays have garnered the most support. As such, the energy sector is up 1.5% and the materials sector up 1.4%. In addition to broad-market support, the two sectors have been helped by a run up in commodity prices, which is showcased by the 1.3% gain in the CRB Commodity Index -- the CRB is now at a fresh two-week high.

Both stocks and commodities have been helped by the greenback's pullback. The dollar is currently down nearly 0.3% against a basket of foreign currencies. DJ30 +59.63 NASDAQ +10.13 SP500 +7.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1413/165 mln/866 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2002/88 mln/689

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +12.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.50. Broad-market stock futures recently made their way to morning highs amid a weaker dollar and news that JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is set to acquire certain commodities operations from a Sempra-RBS joint venture for some $1.7 billion, while Simon Property Group (SPG) wants to acquire General Growth Properties (GGWPQ) in a deal worth more than $10 billion, including $9 billion in cash. Solid quarterly reports from Dow components Merck (MRK) and Kraft (KFT) have helped keep this morning's rather upbeat tone intact. Meanwhile, a better-than-expected bounce in profit by Barclays (BCS) has helped drive support for European banks and, in turn, European bourses. Asian markets saw moderate participation as several of its major exchanges were closed for holiday observance. Still, Japan had some pleasing news with its stronger-than-expected increase in fourth quarter economic growth. Economic data stateside has caused less of a stir since this morning's reports have been limited to a stronger-than-expected Empire Manufacturing Index for February and a larger-than-expected net TIC flow for December. In terms of economic speakers, Kansas City Fed President Hoenig will speek at a budget policy forum at 12:00 PM ET.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +12.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.50. U.S. stock futures have reclaimed their gains from earlier this morning, while Europe's bourses currently trade with varied gains. Headlines related to Greece's fiscal woes continue to come, but there has yet to be any concrete development or detailed plan for global participants to digest. In Germany, the DAX is up 0.4%, though its 30 components are currently split evenly between advancers and declining issues. Deutsche Bank (DB) is a primary source of support after its shares were upgraded by analysts at Credit Suisse. In economic news, German investor confidence in February fell to 45.1 from 47.2, but that decline was less than what had been expected. Societe Generale is a primary leader in France, where the CAC is up 0.2%. Metals giant ArcelorMittal (MT) is also strong. Banks and natural resource plays are also strong in Britain, where the FTSE is up 0.8%. Barclays (BCS) is a primary leader in the wake of reports that the bank's 2009 net profit for 2009 more than doubled from the previous year to exceed expectations. BP PLC (BP) is also up solidly. According to Times of London, BP is in talks to pay approximately $1.2 billion for a majority stake in Value Creation, which is a Canadian company with substantial reserves in oil-rich sand deposits. In economic news, Reuters reported that consumer price inflation in the United Kingdom climbed to an annualized 3.5% in January, up from 2.9% in December, but that was partly due to an increase in the national sales tax and more expensive energy. The increase was expected and the Bank of England had recently stated that it expects inflation to ease later in the year. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.5%, while Japan's Nikkei managed to gain 0.2%. Softbank and Honda Motor (HMC) were leaders in the modest move. Sumitomo was a laggard, though; it lost more than 4% after news that the company will launch an offer to raise its stake in cable TV company Jupiter Telecom to 40%, countering a rival bid by KDDI. After the market close, Mitsubishi Chemical said it would launch a tender offer to buy Mitsubishi Rayon for 217.4 billion yen. According to The Independent, Japan's economy is enjoying a sharp rebound, which saw output climb 1.1% in the fourth quarter of 2009. The rate of increase was reportedly well ahead of analysts' expectations and sharply up from the prior quarter. Further, a spokesman for the government said that the risk of a double-dip recession has decreased a little. Meanwhile, a report from Reuters indicated that Japan's finance minister said he would like to see price growth of 1% and urged the Bank of Japan to cooperate in beating deflation. Both Hong Kong's Hang Seng and mainland China's Shanghai Composite were closed.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +10.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.50. Stock futures continue to trade with a lead over fair value as the dollar lags a basket of competing currencies. However, the reaction to the latest Empire Manufacturing Index, which exceeded expectations when it was released at the bottom of the hour, has been rather muted. Specifically, February reading hit 24.9, which is well above the 18.0 that had been expected and a considerable improvement from the 15.9 that was posted in January. Still, the latest reading remains below the multiyear high of 33.4 that was registered in October 2009. Coming up at the top of the hour is the December reading on long-term TIC flows.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.50. Participants have returned from an extended weekend to offer stock futures a bit of support ahead of Tuesday's opening bell, partly due to a weaker dollar. Though earnings announcements have slowed from the previous week, there are a few worth mention -- Dow component Kraft (KFT) posted strong results and offered a solid outlook, while fellow Dow component Merck (MRK) posted in-line earnings. In other corporate news, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) will acquire the Asian and European operations of the Sempra-RBS commodities joint venture for an expected $1.7 billion.

06:25 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +10.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.80.

06:25 am : Nikkei...10034.25...+21.00...+0.20%. Hang Seng...Holiday.........

06:25 am : FTSE...5212.91...+45.40...+0.90%. DAX...5561.31...+50.40...+0.90%.

Special thanks to Yahoo! Finance and CNNMoney for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

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