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 Post subject: February 10th Wednesday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +17.30
PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2010 9:55 pm 
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Written By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, although this journal contains advertisements involving my trade methods, it does contain useful trading tips a few times per week. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips that can improve your trading and understand that profitable trading involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader that's the same as my user name on twitter.

Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=71&t=446.

Quote:
Today's results are 7 wins : 6 losses : 1 breakeven. The losses were controlled and as usual not important to me as long as my winners contain a few runners. Simply, too many traders try to manage their trading or profit curve via win:loss ratios...I'm not one of them nor am I a newbie trader that needs to be constantly tweeking my system or jumping to a new method like a fashion statement to meet some win:loss ratio illusion. In contrast, I spend most of my trade management effort on minimizing my losses while trying to maximize my profits per trade. With that said, there was an obvious key change in supply/demand around 10am est via the FED Chairman Bernanke speech. However, another key change in supply/demand (WRB S/R Zone) caught my eye around 1124am est because it traded back upwards into the price range of the Bernanke speech key change in supply/demand. Unfortunately I started my break from trading before I was able to exploit that 1124am est WRB S/R Zone when a Long signal from the Volatility Trading Report (VTR) appeared around 1206pm est.

Trading Tip: To prevent that "what happen" feeling during a strong parabolic directional price movement...you need to get a live news feed or live financial TV network along with an economic calendar with a FED / ECD speech calendar because that will answer your "what happen" questions.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, if you're interested in having free access to one of my profitable trade strategies along with earning extra income with little effort...join my referral program @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ReferralProgram.htm

My Trading Performance: +17.30 points in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures

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Stocks Dip On Bernanke Plan, Europe Worries
By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
February 10, 2010: 5:43 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks struggled Wednesday as investors weighed the Greek debt situation, a strong dollar and Fed chairman Ben Bernanke's plan for eventually withdrawing some of the trillions of dollars used to bolster the nation's financial system.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 20 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 index (SPX) lost 2 points, or 0.2% and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 3 points, or 0.1%.

Stocks rallied Tuesday as growing bets that the European Union will rescue Greece from its debt problems reassured investors after a four-week selloff. But stocks were choppy Wednesday on concerns that Greece is just the first of many countries that is feeling the pressure of a growing deficit.

Stocks also remain vulnerable to a retreat in the aftermath of 2009's big rally, in which the S&P 500 gained 23%. In the last nine months of 2009, it gained 65%, bouncing off 12-year lows hit in March.

"Greece's issues will get addressed, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a bigger market pullback in the weeks ahead anyway," said Tim McCandless, senior equity analyst at Bel Air Investment Advisors.

However, he said that a larger retreat would probably be met with buyers stepping in at lower levels. Since hitting a rally high on Jan. 19, the S&P 500 is down almost 7%, as of Wednesday's close.

Bernanke's comments on the Fed's plans to wind down its extraordinary measures to bolster lending and the strengthening of the dollar versus the euro were also in play Wednesday.

Bank shares bounced up after several down sessions, countering some of the broader weakness in the market. The KBW Bank (BKX) index gained 1%.

Thursday brings reports on January retail sales, December business inventories and weekly jobless claims.

Bernanke: The Federal Reserve chairman said that while the U.S. economy continues to require the support of emergency programs the Fed enacted at the height of the financial crisis, "at some point the Federal Reserve will need to tighten financial conditions."

He said that the Fed will pull cash from the system before it lifts interest rates, and that its decision to boost the emergency "discount" rate is not the same as a shift in policy. The prepared testimony was meant to be delivered at a House Financial Services Committee hearing that was postponed due to snow.
Bernanke lays out plan for tighter money

Debt crisis: Reports late Wednesday said France and Germany may present a rescue plan for Greece at Thursday's meeting of euro zone countries. Meanwhile, Greece has vowed to press forward with cutbacks, despite an ongoing worker strike.

Although Greece's impact is small, the threat of a default there has intensified worries about other debt-challenged European countries, including Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy. A crisis overseas would set back the still-fragile global economic recovery and hurt U.S. financial institutions. Investors are also keeping an eye on the growing U.S. budget deficit.

"Even if the EU comes in and stabilizes the debt issue in Greece, my concern is that we still have so much debt around the globe that hasn't been addressed," said Dean Barber, president at Barber Financial Group.

The debt crisis has sparked something of a flight from risk over the last few weeks, with investors choosing government bonds and the dollar over stocks. Investors have fled the euro in favor of the greenback and have sold dollar-traded commodities, commodity stocks and a broad swath of securities in other sectors.

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq have all declined the past four weeks, despite improved quarterly earnings and revenues, and some positive signs in the economic reports.

Despite Tuesday's rally, the market is likely to stay a "choppy mess" for a while, Barber said.

Economy: The December trade gap widened to $40.2 billion in December from a revised $36.4 billion in November, the government reported Wednesday morning. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought it would narrow to $35.8 billion. The widening reflected a pick-up in imports amid the recovering economy.
0:00 /5:48Toyota's acceleration mystery lingers

Walt Disney: The media behemoth reported higher-than-expected quarterly earnings and revenue in a report released after the close of trading Tuesday. Disney (DIS, Fortune 500) shares rose 0.6%.

World markets: European markets mostly ended higher, while Asian markets ended with strong gains.

The dollar and commodities: The U.S. dollar rallied versus the euro and the Japanese yen.

U.S. light crude oil for March delivery rose 77 cents to settle at $74.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for April delivery fell 90 cents to settle at $1,076.30.

Bonds: Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 3.68% from 3.64% late Tuesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers narrowly edged winners on volume of 1 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers on volume of 2.04 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Continued speculation about loan guarantees for Greece and Fed Chairman Bernanke's hint at a rate hike kept the dollar in focus this session. Its advance took stocks lower, save financials.

The Dollar Index spent the entire session in positive territory as newswires were filled with conflicting reports about whether Germany will lead a bailout for Greece and other European countries currently in need. Its strength grew as Fed Chairman Bernanke's prepared remarks about how the Fed may opt to raise the discount rate before long made the rounds. The greenback had been up as much as 0.7% against competing currencies, but eased back a bit to settle with a 0.4% gain.

The midsession pullback by the greenback helped the stock market recover from a loss of more than 1%. Financials also provided support -- the sector steadily outperformed for the entire session, such that it finished with a 0.8% gain. It was the only major sector to finish in higher ground, though.

Strength in the financial sector was broad as multiline insurers (+2.2%), diversified banks (+1.5%), and diversified financial services players (+1.2%) all logged handsome gains.

Despite leadership from financials, the broader market couldn't push through the headwind that stemmed from a stronger dollar. In turn, the stock market failed to extend the previous session's 1.3% gain. However, stocks are still up 0.2% week-to-date. Though that's relatively unimpressive, stocks haven't booked a weekly gain since the first week of January.

Hardly 1 billion shares exchanged hands this session on the NYSE, making for rather light volume. Many participants may continue to wait on the sidelines until something of substance comes out of the Greece debt dilemma.

Despite broader market weakness, Treasuries failed to find support as the benchmark 10-year Note shed roughly 11 ticks. Its yield pushed above 3.7% at its session low. Disappointing results for an auction of 10-year Notes were the primary cause. They featured a yield of 3.69%, an indirect bid of 33%, and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.67.

Looking ahead, participants will continue to focus on the dollar and any headlines regarding a bailout for Greece. Weekly jobless claims numbers, which are due tomorrow morning, also remain a point of interest for participants. Results for an auction of 30-year Bonds could also come into play.

Advancing Sectors: Financials (0.8%)
Declining Sectors: Materials (-0.7%), Utilities (-0.6%), Health Care (-0.6%), Energy (-0.5%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.5%), Telecom (-0.4%), Tech (-0.3%), Industrials (-0.3%), Consumer Staples (-0.2%)DJ30 -20.26 NASDAQ -3.00 NQ100 -0.2% R2K +0.1% SP400 -0.1% SP500 -2.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1281/2.03 bln/1310 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1500/1.01 bln/1497

3:35 pm : Prepared remarks (in lieu of testimony before a House Financial Services Committee) released by Fed Chairman Bernanke suggesting there will be a raise in the discount rate caused a surge in the dollar index this session. This took the broader market and commodities lower in the mid-morning, but the dollar index pared gains, which reduced the losses in commodities.

Precious metals traded to session lows on the dollar's strength, but recovered before the conclusion of the pit trade. April gold finished fractionally lower at $1076.30 per ounce and March silver finished 0.9% lower at $15.30 per ounce.

Crude oil also put in a session low with the dollar's strength at $72.60 per barrel. The March contract then rose steadily for the rest of the session and finished 2.6% higher at $74.50 per barrel.

Natural gas futures also made it into positive territory after hitting a session low in the morning. It closed 0.2% higher at $5.30 per MMBtu.DJ30 -0.91 NASDAQ -0.58 SP500 -0.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1254/1.66 bln/1342 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1583/733 mln/1404

3:00 pm : The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 have each slipped into negative territory, but the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index and the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index continue to trade with fractional gains. Apollo Investment Management (AINV 10.35, +0.53) is a primary leader among mid-caps, while National Financial (NFP 10.84, +1.97) is a leader among small-caps. Shares of APOL were upgraded after the previous session's close, while shares of NFP have been helped by better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter. DJ30 -9.00 NASDAQ -0.94 SP500 -1.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1207/1.53 bln/1371 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1510/670 mln/1456

2:30 pm : The stock market continues to dance along the neutral line as slightly more than half of its components trade with a gain.

Financials dominate the list of advancing issues this session. Without the financial sector's 1.1% gain, the broader market would likely reside in the red, given the moderate-to-marked losses in the other nine S&P sectors -- losses range from a 0.2% decline in the consumer staples and tech sector to the 0.7% loss in the materials sector. DJ30 -5.08 NASDAQ +1.50 SP500 +0.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1212/1.44 bln/1354 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1525/625 mln/1427

2:00 pm : The greenback has reclaimed some of its recent gains so that it is now up 0.4% for the session. However, it is still a bit off of its session high, which was marked by a 0.7% gain against a basket of foreign currencies.

Nonetheless, the dollar's move has caused the stock market to give up its recent gain and return to the unchanged mark.

Despite the dollar's strength, oil prices have recovered from early losses. Contracts for crude were last quoted at $74.75 per barrel, up 1.3%. DJ30 +0.98 NASDAQ +1.45 SP500 +0.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1173/1.32 bln/1378 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1562/564 mln/1389

1:30 pm : The stock market has pushed into positive territory to trade with a modest gain. The move has come amid broader market support and from leadership among financial issues, which are now up a collective 1.8%. The robust gain by the financial sector is more than six times the gain of the next best performing sector (industrials, +0.3%).

Treasuries have fallen out of favor as a result of increased support for stocks and a disappointing auction for the 10-year Note. Auction results, which were released at 1:00 PM ET, showed a yield of 3.69%, an indirect bid of 33%, and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.67. The 10-year Note is now down 15 ticks to a session low -- its yield has climbed to 3.7% as a result. DJ30 +22.97 NASDAQ +4.59 SP500 +2.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1199/1.21 bln/1239 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1678/516 mln/1265

1:00 pm : The dollar's rebound amid ongoing speculation about loan guarantees for Greece and a hint at a rate hike from Fed Chairman Bernanke led stocks lower in early action, but the market has since recovered as support fades for the greenback.

Conflicting headlines about whether Germany will lead a bailout for Greece continue to come across news wires, but the prospect of such funding helped Europe's major markets make their way higher. However, U.S. stocks struggled to follow Europe's lead as the greenback gained ground amid news that claims for a bailout of Greece are unfounded.

The buck was able to pick up even more support and climb to a gain of 0.7% against competing currencies as news circulated that Fed Chairman Bernanke indicated in a prepared statement that the Fed may opt to raise the discount rate before long. The statement was meant to be part of a testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, but that event was postponed.

The dollar's strength made for widespread weakness among stocks, which were down more than 1% at their session low. Natural resource plays were hit hardest -- materials and energy stocks were down roughly 2% at their session low.

However, the greenback has pulled back so that it now trades with a 0.3% gain. That has helped materials stocks (-0.4%) and energy stocks (-0.4%) slash their losses and lift the broader market to trade just below the neutral line.

Despite the market's improved position, financials make up the only sector to sport a gain. They are currently up an enviable 1.0%, thanks to leadership from diversified financial services plays like JPMorgan Chase (JPM 39.09, +0.70) and Bank of America (BAC 14.68, +0.21).

Due at any minute are the results from the latest auction of 10-year Notes. The benchmark security is currently down just a few ticks ahead of the announcement.DJ30 -3.03 NASDAQ -1.56 SP500 -0.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1026/1.10 bln/1484 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1426/465 mln/1497

12:30 pm : The stock market has managed to come within striking distance of the neutral line, but financials still represent the only major sector to sport a gain -- they are up 0.8% to a fresh session high.

The broader market's improved position comes as a result of the greenback's pullback, such that it now trades with a 0.3% gain after it was up as much as 0.7%. DJ30 -7.03 NASDAQ -3.45 SP500 -1.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 931/1.02 bln/1579 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1328/427 mln/1597

12:00 pm : The stock market has managed to halve its losses as the Dollar Index drifts off of its session high to trade with a 0.4% gain. Still, weakness remains widespread as nine of the 10 major sectors trade in negative territory -- energy (-1.1%) and materials (-1.0%) are still the worst performers.

Financials continue to outperform. The sector is presently up 0.5% with help from MasterCard (MA 224.58, +1.13), which stated at the Credit Suisse Financial Services Forum that its debit business is up mid-to-high teens in all categories, but that growth is not cannibalizing credit volumes. DJ30 -45.95 NASDAQ -13.25 SP500 -5.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 737/894 mln/1748 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1021/377 mln/1883

11:30 am : The stock market continues to trade with a moderate loss, but wireless services stocks are especially weak in the wake of a deeper-than-expected loss from Sprint Nextel (S 3.32, -0.33) in the latest quarter.

Broadcasting and publishing names are also under considerable pressure, though Disney (DIS 29.36, -0.48) topped the consensus earnings estimate for its latest fiscal quarter. CBS (CBS 12.60, -0.43), New York Times (NYT 10.90, -0.77), and News Corp (NWS 14.74, -0.42) are trading lower in sympathy. Their collective weakness has taken the consumer discretionary sector down to a 0.6% loss. DJ30 -33.41 NASDAQ -10.03 SP500 -4.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 757/792 mln/1689 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1026/335 mln/1849

11:00 am : Stocks have managed to rebound off of session lows, which were hit when the S&P 500 came in contact with the 1060 line. Financials continue to offer support -- they are currently up 0.2% and make up the only sector to sport a gain -- but the broader market has struggled to follow it back to positive territory. DJ30 -56.31 NASDAQ -12.05 SP500 -6.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 689/653 mln/1711 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 904/284 mln/1926

10:30 am : A bounce by the buck has pressured both stocks and commodities alike. As such, roughly 85% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are down for a collective loss of nearly 1.0%, while the CRB Commodity Index is down 0.9%.

Within the CRB, oil prices are currently down 1.2% to $72.85 per barrel. Weekly oil inventory data has been postponed due to weather.

As for natural gas, prices are down 0.5% to $5.26 per contract.

Gold prices are down a considerable 1.2% to $1064 per ounce, while silver prices were last quoted 1.6% lower at $15.19 per ounce. DJ30 -91.15 NASDAQ -18.54 SP500 -10.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 591/480 mln/1764 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 712/216 mln/2098

10:05 am : Leadership from financials had recently helped to pull the broader market up from its early loss, but sellers have redoubled their efforts amid news that Fed Chairman Bernanke indicated in a prepared statement for a testimony before the House Financial Services Committee that the Fed may opt to raise the discount rate before long. Though Bernanke's statement was released, his actual testimony has been postponed.

The statement has proved to be a positive for the dollar, which has spiked to a 0.5% gain against a basket of competing currencies. That move has weighed heavily on the materials sector, which is now down to a 1.1% loss.

Financials have held firm to their gains, though. The sector is up 0.2%.

Early movers: Trading up -- ATHX +26.7%, OPEN +16.7%, NTGR +14.5%, LIOX +13.6%, DSCM +10.9%, ARGN +10%, AMG +9.2%, BIDU +8.3%; Trading down -- ISIS -17.7%, CVC -16.4%, DF -9.9%, EXBD -7.8%, S -5.5%, NBG -5.4%, EOG -5.4%, OTE -5.2%, MU -4.6%DJ30 -41.34 NASDAQ -9.47 SP500 -4.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 706/301 mln/1559 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 926/132 mln/1777

09:45 am : The major indices recently made a broad-based, downward move into the red, but overall losses remain relatively modest.

However, materials stocks, which were the best performers in the previous session, are down 0.8%. Though the dollar's advance this morning has hampered the broader market, it is often a particularly heavy drag on natural resource plays, which are even more sensitive to the greenback's moves due to their exposure to dollar-denominated commodities and basic materials.

Financials make up the only major sector still in positive territory -- the sector is up 0.2% at the moment, while the Financial Select SPDR (XLF 13.82, +0.02) is up by just a couple of cents. DJ30 -19.73 NASDAQ -2.09 SP500 -2.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 884/162 mln/1264 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1014/78 mln/1585

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.30. A firmer dollar has created a bit of a headwind for stock futures, which currently point to a rather flat start after markets made a strong showing in the previous session. The greenback's early gain, currently 0.3% against competing currencies, has come amid conflicting headlines regarding a possible move by Germany to lead loan guarantees to Greece and other European nations that currently face fiscal challenges. While Greece's economic health may not have a direct impact on the U.S. economy, weakness in the country's financial health could spill into more major European economies and, as a result, slow the global recovery process. In turn, headlines on the matter will remain the primary focus of market participants, especially in the absence of any other major corporate reports or economic releases.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.00. Europe's major bourses have surrendered a chunk of their recent gains in the wake of back-and-forth comments about a possible Germany-led plan to offer loan guarantees to Greece. Germany's DAX is currently up 1.0% after it had been up as much as 1.7%. Deutsche Bank (DB) is a primary leader for the second straight session. In France, the CAC has pulled back to trade with a 0.9% gain after it had been up as much as 1.7%, but BNP Paribas continues to trade sharply higher in its best single-session percentage advance in more than two months. However, ArcelorMittal (MT) is a laggard after it posted its latest quarterly results, which featured a double-digit drop in its top line. Britain's FTSE has come down from a 1.4% gain to trade with a more moderate gain of 0.7%. Banking issues, like those of HSBC (HBC), Barclays (BCS), and Lloyds Group (LYG), make up the primary leaders in the index. BHP Billiton (BHP) is up modestly after it reported better-than-expected earnings. In economic news, reports indicate that manufacturing output in December grew by 0.9% from an upwardly revised 0.2% in November. The latest numbers were better than expected. However, separate reports indicate that the Bank of England said that the pace of recovery in the U.K. economy is slower than it previously forecast, impeded by tight credit and the need to repair public and private balance sheets. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index made a modest gain of 0.3%, as did Japan's Nikkei. Honda Motor (HMC) slipped on plans to recall more cars to replace an airbag deflator. However, Nissan Motor (NSANY) advanced after it reported a return to quarterly profit and lifted its forecast once more. In economic news, Japan's core machinery orders during December increased a stronger-than-expected 20.1%. Meanwhile, Hong Kong's Hang Seng concluded its session at a high point with a 0.7% gain. China Life (LFC), Ping An, and China Taiping Insurance each outperformed. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed with a 1.1% gain. The move was helped by comments from a central bank governor about price pressures and the pace of lending that eased concerns over policy tightening. As for economic data, a 21% spike in exports during January was influenced by the timing of the lunar holiday, but still in-line with expectations.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.50. The U.S. trade balance for December was just released and it showed a $40.2 billion deficit, which is deeper than the $35.8 billion deficit that many had forecast. The latest trade balance marked a move lower the November deficit of $36.4 billion. In other economic news, Fed Chairman Bernanke's testimony to the House Financial Services Committee about unwinding emergency liquidity programs has been postponed, but his prepared remarks will still be released at 10:00 AM ET this morning. As for other announcements scheduled for today, results from a $25 billion auction of 10-year Notes are scheduled for 1:00 PM ET.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.30. A recent spike by the dollar against competing currencies has undercut stock futures, which had earlier shown strength amid continued reports about a possible Germany-led plan to offer loan guarantees to Greece. Ongoing speculation over such a plan has helped the major European bourses push broadly higher, but Asia's major markets booked moderate gains.

06:29 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.00.

06:29 am : Nikkei...9963.99...+31.10...+0.30%. Hang Seng...19922.22...+131.90...+0.70%.

06:29 am : FTSE...5171.88...+60.00...+1.20%. DAX...5575.10...+76.80...+1.40%.

Special thanks to Yahoo! Finance and CNNMoney for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1 708 572-4885
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