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 Post subject: February 8th Monday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +10.40
PostPosted: Mon Feb 08, 2010 8:37 pm 
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Written By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, although this journal contains advertisements involving my trade methods, it does contain useful trading tips a few times per week. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips that can improve your trading and understand that profitable trading involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader that's the same as my user name on twitter.

Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=71&t=444.

Quote:
Today's results are 5 wins : 1 losses. As I suspected on Friday, a key change in supply/demand had impact on today's price action. That impact was the intraday bounce off the regular session lows @ around 0955am est. I failed to exploit that even though I was looking for it. frustrated

There are a few other key changes in supply/demand (WRB S/R Zone) I'll be watching on Tuesday such as the price action from the 3min interval @ 1151am and 1306pm est. In addition, two key areas from Friday are still being watched and they occurred @ 1406pm and 1503pm est.

Trading Tip: Reminder - Correlate the VIX to your profit/loss curve to determine if your trading method is sensitive to changes in volatility. If yes...monitor the VIX to help determine your position size management and you'll be able to maximize your profits while minimizing your losses even though your trade signals remain the same.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, if you're interested in having free access to one of my profitable trade strategies along with earning extra income with little effort...join my referral program @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ReferralProgram.htm

My Trading Performance: +10.40 points in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures

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Debt Fears Drag Dow Below 10,000
Debt fears drag Dow below 10,000
By Alexandra Twin and Hibah Yousuf, staff writers
February 8, 2010: 6:25 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Dow closed below 10,000 Monday for the first time in three months, with financial shares leading the way, as worries about the U.S. economy and European debt weighed on investor sentiment.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) tumbled 104 points, or 1%, ending at 9,908.39. The last time the Dow finished below 10,000 was Nov. 4, when it closed at 9802.14.

The S&P 500 index (SPX) ended just below break-even. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) shed 15 points, or 0.7%. Neither closed at notable lows.

Since peaking at a rally high on Jan. 19, the Dow has lost 7.6%, the S&P 500 has lost 7.3% and the Nasdaq has lost 8.4%.

"I think you're seeing a concern about how real this economic recovery is," said Kevin Mahn, managing director at Hennion & Walsh. "The sovereign debt issue is the macro concern, but near term, it's all about the economy."

The major indexes have been on a decline for four weeks in a row. The optimism that propelled a 10-month rally off 12-year lows from last March has been replaced by cautiousness. Bets that an economic recovery was gaining momentum -- combined with trillions in fiscal and monetary stimulus -- fed the 2009 rally.

But so far in 2010, markets have been choppy and weak as investors wait for evidence that the still-germinating recovery is really taking hold, particularly amid the hard-hit labor market and housing industry.

"Investors may have priced in a tepid recovery in terms of their strategies, but they haven't priced in sovereign debt issues," said Larry Glazer, managing director at Mayflower Advisors. "That factor, plus companies reporting decent earnings but seeing no response, is having an impact right now."

In January, worries about China curbing bank lending and the White House limiting trading at big banks raised fears about tighter lending standards and the credit markets.

Stocks tumbled toward the end of last week on fears that Greece might default on its debt, which could trigger defaults in other European nations, including Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain.

Shares ended little changed Friday and traded in mixed territory through most of Monday, suggesting that the selling was abating and that the knee-jerk reaction had passed.

Helping to take the edge off Monday's declines was a rally in commodity prices and energy and metal stocks as the dollar lost some steam.

Last week, debt concerns battered the euro, propelling the dollar and dragging on dollar-traded commodities. A wish to dump riskier assets including U.S. stocks also added to the selling.

Commodities and the dollar: The U.S. dollar slipped versus the euro after rising to a more than six-month high versus the European currency last week. The dollar strengthened versus the Japanese yen.

Over the weekend, finance ministers from the Group of Seven largest industrialized nations pledged to keep providing liquidity to sustain a recovery. But the issue of Greece's potential default was not specifically addressed.

Commodity prices rallied, with COMEX gold for April delivery rising $13.40 to settle at $1,066.20 an ounce.

U.S. light crude oil for March delivery rose 70 cents to settle at $71.89 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
0:00 /4:00Europe's economic catch-22

On the move: A number of tech stocks gained, including Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500), Intel (INTC, Fortune 500), Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) and Cisco Systems (CSCO, Fortune 500).

Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500) gained after Morgan Stanley reportedly upgraded the Dow component to "overweight" from "equal-weight," saying it will benefit from a recovering housing market.

But a variety of financial shares fell, dragging on the market. Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) and Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) were among the big losers.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers topped winners by three to two on volume of 1.09 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers two to one on volume of 2.06 billion shares.
After the gold rush

Corporate news: Former Merrill Lynch CEO John Thain will run struggling small business lender CIT Group (CIT, Fortune 500), the company said over the weekend. Thain ran Merrill until it was sold to Bank of America in September 2008, at the height of the financial crisis.

CIT emerged from bankruptcy in December. Shares gained 2% Monday morning.

Toyota Motor (TM), reeling from the recall of more than 8 million vehicles due to brake problems, told its dealers it is close to announcing a solution to the problems with the Prius hybrid Sedan.

Quarterly results: A few big corporations are due to report results this week, including Dow components Coca-Cola (KO, Fortune 500) and Walt Disney (DIS, Fortune 500) on Tuesday and Sprint Nextel (S, Fortune 500) on Wednesday.

Coke is expected to have earned 66 cents per share up from 64 cents a year ago, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by earnings tracker Thomson Reuters. Disney is expected to have earned 39 cents per share, down from 41 a year ago. Sprint Nextel is expected to have lost 19 cents per share after earning 24 cents per share a year ago.

With 320 companies, or 64% of the S&P 500, having reported results, earnings are on track to have risen 207% versus a year ago and revenues to have gained 8%. But the big jump year-over-year is partly due to easy comparisons to a tough fourth-quarter of 2008.

Financial companies in particular are driving the gains. Stripping out financials leaves earnings growth at 16% and revenue growth at 3%.

Results have largely been positive, with 74% of companies beating earnings forecasts and 70% beating revenue forecasts.

World markets: European markets ended higher, with the London FTSE gaining 0.6%. Asian markets ended lower Monday.

Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.59% from 3.61% late Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Image

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Weakness among financial issues took the broader market through a near-term technical support level to settle at a session low, and left the Dow to close below 10,000 for the first time in three months.

Financial stocks dropped 2.2% as participants pressured the sector after it had rallied this past Friday for a 1.2% gain. Financials traded as laggards for the entire session, but didn't drag down the broader market until late in the session.

Bank of America (BAC 14.48, -0.52) was one of the weakest performers within the financial sector. It was also a primary laggard among blue chips and helped drag down the Dow. Though the Dow has made intraday dips below the psychologically significant 10,000 level in recent sessions, this session marked the first time since early November that it actually closed below the mark.

Technical support had provided early support for the broader S&P 500 near the 1059 line in the early going and briefly into the close. However, sellers redoubled their efforts in the waning minutes of the session and caused stocks to close at session lows.

Broader market weakness inevitably dragged down shares of retailers from a 1.3% gain to a 0.2% loss. The group had found strength in better-than-expected earnings from CVS Caremark (CVS 32.72, +1.65) and Morgan Stanley's upgrade of Home Depot (HD 28.59, +0.61).

The dollar's move off of its session lows also weighed on stocks. The Dollar Index had been down 0.4% at its session low, but cut that to a 0.1% loss.

Despite that move, commodities were still able to book strong gains. As such, the CRB Commodity Index advanced to a 1.2% gain.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Financials (-2.2%), Materials (-1.5%), Industrials (-1.1%), Utilities (-1.1%), Energy (-0.9%), Telecom (-0.8%), Tech (-0.5%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.4%), Health Care (-0.4%), Consumer Staples (-0.3%)DJ30 -103.84 NASDAQ -15.07 NQ100 -0.6% R2K -1.1% SP400 -0.7% SP500 -9.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 922/2.05 bln/1708 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1077/1.08 bln/1957

3:30 pm : Equities are trading near their worst levels of the afternoon. The recent trend lower corresponds to a recovery in the dollar.

Despite recently limited its loss to just 0.1%, general weakness in the dollar index provided support to the commodity space this session. The CRB Commodity Index closed 1.2% higher.

Precious metals moved higher on the heels of a weak dollar. April gold closed 1.3% higher at $1065.70 per ounce after trading as high as $1074.30 per ounce. March silver closed 1.8% higher at $15.09 per ounce after trading as high as $15.32 per ounce.

Meanwhile, copper futures ended higher for the first time in four sessions. March copper closed 2.1% higher at $2.91.

March crude oil traded modestly higher for the majority of the session. The $72 level acted as resistance. It closed 1.0% higher at $71.89 per barrel.

March natural gas futures trended sharply lower this session. They broke though the $5.50 level in the early afternoon and closed 2.0% lower at $5.40 per contract.DJ30 -58.72 NASDAQ -6.53 SP500 -4.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1027/1.67 bln/1596 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1254/740 mln/1734

3:00 pm : Stocks are back to trading with modest losses as weakness among financial issues (-1.6%) undermines the broader market. Financials make up 14% of the stock market's weight, second in size only to the tech sector's (+0.1) 19% weighting.

Despite broad weakness in the financial sector, regional banks Fifth Third (FITB 11.54, +0.28) and Regions Financial (RF 6.30, +0.12) are sporting strong gains. DJ30 -58.49 NASDAQ -6.34 SP500 -4.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1079/1.51 bln/1534 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1335/673 mln/1662

2:30 pm : Despite choppy, listless action in the broader market, tech stocks have been able to trade with steady gains. The sector is currently up a modest 0.3% as Google (GOOG 537.98, +6.69) shows leadership. Semiconductor giants Intel (INTC 19.61, +0.14) and Texas Instruments (TXN 23.25, +0.28) are also strong, but their gains have given an even larger lift to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which is up to a 0.8% gain. DJ30 -33.17 NASDAQ +1.58 SP500 -1.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1172/1.39 bln/1423 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1499/616 mln/1477

2:00 pm : Stocks continue to drift lower as weakness in the financial sector intensifies such that it now trades with a 1.7% loss. That's more than double the 0.8% loss of the materials sector, which is the next worst performer this session.

Meanwhile, retailers continue to trade with strength. The group is up 0.8%, which has helped the consumer discretionary sector maintain its position as the best performing major sector this session. The sector is currently up 0.5%. DJ30 -36.80 NASDAQ +0.82 SP500 -1.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1117/1.30 bln/1451 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1444/572 mln /1509

1:30 pm : Stocks in the broader market recently turned lower despite an absence of any new headline. However, the dollar has managed to trim its losses so that the Dollar Index is down 0.2% this session.

Financials make up the only sector to trade at a fresh session low. They are now down 1.5%. DJ30 -36.73 NASDAQ +0.71 SP500 -1.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1228/1.21 bln/1342 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1536/531 mln/1422

1:00 pm : This session's trade has been tepid as a lack of headlines has allowed participants to regroup after last week's volatile action.

Mixed action overseas and little news flow ahead of the opening bell left stocks to start the session flat. Sellers made an early effort to knock stocks a leg lower, but pressure abated as the S&P 500 secured technical support near the 1059 mark and made an upward move to positive territory.

Gains in the broader market are currently limited, though retailers are up an enviable 1.2%. Thanks to better-than-expected earnings, CVS Caremark (CVS 33.01, +1.94) is a strong source of support for the space -- it was one of only a handful of companies to report its latest results this morning.

Commodities have put together strong gains as a result of a weaker greenback, which is currently down nearly 0.4% against a basket of foreign currencies. Gold, which is up 1.5% to $1068 per ounce, is one of the best performing commodities this session.

Gold's gains haven't helped gold stocks, Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX 41.63, -0.78), but shares of diversified metals and miners are up an impressive 1.3%. Still, the broader materials sector is up just 0.1%.

Financials have lagged for the entire session. The sector is currently down 0.8% as diversified banks (-1.7%) and diversified financial services stocks (-1.3%) fall out of favor. DJ30 -4.61 NASDAQ +8.04 SP500 +2.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1333/1.09 bln/1214 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1749/475 mln/1199

12:30 pm : This session's action remains rather quiet as the major indices trade in mixed fashion. The pause comes as many participants attempt to regroup from last week's volatility, which saw the Dow make a triple-digit drop and triple-digit rebound during Friday alone.

Headlines have also been few and far between this session. Their absence has also left participants with little interest in trade. DJ30 -11.48 NASDAQ +7.61 SP500 +2.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1317/994 mln/1216 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1723/440 mln/1191

12:00 pm : Stocks started this session on weak footing, but the S&P 500 was able to secure technical support near the 1059 mark and make an upward move. Action has been choppy since, but the stock market is still in positive territory. Resistance at the 1071 mark has capped gains, however.

Commodities continue to look strong as the CRB Commodity Index advances to a 1.4% gain. A 1.0% rise in oil prices to $71.90 per barrel and a 1.5% rise in gold prices to $1067.90 per ounce have helped. Despite gold's gain, gold stocks are relatively weak this session -- the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD 104.63, -0.05) is down fractionally and Newmont Mining (NEM 45.40, -0.83) is down markedly. DJ30 -7.40 NASDAQ +8.31 SP500 +2.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1309/897 mln/1197 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1715/400 mln/1195

11:30 am : The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite have managed to push into positve territory, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been held up at the neutral line. Still, it is well above its morning low, which came with a 0.8% loss.

The recent climb by stocks has come amid a downward push by the dollar, which is now off by 0.4% against a basket of foreign currencies.

Though the broader market has managed to improve its position on the back of a weaker buck, tech and energy have become solid sources of support. Both sectors are up 0.5%. Only consumer discretionary stocks (+1.0%) have a stronger gain, but their weight in the broader market is less signficant. DJ30 -4.23 NASDAQ +7.39 SP500 +3.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1280/777 mln/1194 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1730/354 mln/1138

11:00 am : The major indices have spent the morning chopping along in mixed fashion, but financial stocks have been noticeably weak. As such, the financial sector is currently down 0.6%, more than any other major sector, as shares of diversified banks (-1.1%) and diversified financial services stocks (-1.9%) slide. Bank of America (BAC 14.63, -0.37) is a primary laggard in the pack.

Specialized finance plays are up a solid 1.0%, though. CME Group (CME 287.98, +7.18) is a primary source of strength in the group as it extends its advance from this past Friday with help from an analyst upgrade. DJ30 -11.71 NASDAQ +3.85 SP500 +1.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1160/620 mln/1281 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1524/285 mln/1311

10:30 am : Commodities are seeing modest strength this morning due to weakness in the US Dollar Index.

March crude oil has spent most of its time in positive territory during today's session, hitting highs overnight of $72.39 per barrel. Currently, crude oil is 0.4% higher at $71.44 per barrel. Meanwhile, March natural gas has been in the black all session. The energy component hit its own session highs of $5.679 per MMBtu right around the open and is now trading at $5.313 per MMBtu, up 1.8%.

Precious metals are also slightly higher this morning, but have pulled back from their overnight highs (Gold $1074.30 per ounce, Silver $15.32 per ounce). April gold is currently trading at $1065.40 per ounce, up 1.1%, while March silver is 1.6% higher at $15.065 per ounce.DJ30 -41.34 NASDAQ -2.27 SP500 -2.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 998/475.51 mln/1381 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1156/219.6 mln/1608

10:00 am : Stocks recently extended their opening losses in broad-based fashion, but they have since staged a bit of a bounce to improve their position. The broader market continues to trade with a modest loss, though.

Retailers continue to trade with relative strength, but are off of their opening highs. Still, the group is up a collective 0.8%. That has consumer discretionary stocks up 0.4%, which makes it the best performer out of the 10 major sectors.

Early movers: Gapping up -- CFSG +17.2%, HAS +10.3%, BBEP +10%, HMPR +9.5%, ISPH +9.3%, XRIT +7.1%, CAGC +7%; Gapping down -- WTU -18.1%, NBG -9.4%, NVAX -9%, AIB -6.7%, LYG -5.7%

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (+0.4%), Materials (+0.2%), Utilities (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Financials (-1.2%), Health Care (-0.5%), Energy (-0.3%), Industrials (-0.3%)
Unchanged: Tech, Utilities, Consumer StaplesDJ30 -29.62 NASDAQ -2.80 SP500 -2.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 858/300 mln/1419 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 988/139 mln/1727

09:45 am : The broader market is down modestly in the opening minutes of the session, but retailers have managed to jump out to a strong gain. Collectively, they are up 0.8%.

Among retailer plays, CVS Caremark (CVS 33.01, +1.94) is a primary leader, thanks to better-than-expected earnings for its latest quarter. Online retailer Amazon.com (AMZN 120.10, +2.71) and home improvement retailer Home Depot (HD 28.81, +0.83) are also strong in the early going; their shares were upgraded by analysts ahead of the opening bell. DJ30 -45.34 NASDAQ -4.33 SP500 -3.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 755/175 mln/1431 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 829/88 mln/1799

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.30. There haven't been any market-moving headlines this morning and overseas markets have been split between varied losses in Asia and modest gains in Europe, so stock futures have traded with little direction ahead of the opening bell. In turn, a flat start looks to be in order for the session. The lack of headlines will have participants partly focused on the dollar, which is currently down 0.2% against competing currencies. Participants will also be interested in whether the dollar's decline will rekindle interest for basic materials stocks, which have been among the weakest performers in the stock market's move off of its January high. That also brings the tech sector back into focus, given that losses among large-cap tech have caused the Nasdaq to underperform its counterparts in the new year.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.80. The dollar continues to trade with a 0.2% loss against a basket of competing currencies. The pullback has helped provide a boon for stock futures, which are still flat relative to fair value, and some modest support for the CRB Commodity Index, which is presently up 0.3%. Gold is a primary gainer among commodities; it is up 1.0% to $1062.80 per ounce, at the moment. Oil is up just 0.1% to $71.30 per barrel in its opening moments of pit trade.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. U.S. stock futures remain flat, but Germany's DAX is currently up 0.7% with advancers outnumbering declining issues by nearly 2-to-1. The move comes after the DAX dropped some 3% last week. In its latest outing, automaker Daimler (DAI) is a primary leader in the bourse, but fellow automaker Volkswagen is a laggard. SAP (SAP) also trades with considerable weakness at the moment. In France, the CAC is up a more modest 0.3%. Its 40 components are split evenly across advancing and declining issues. Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) has been a source of strength for the CAC, but financial outfits BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, and AXA (AXA) have slowed a rebound from the CAC's near 5% loss last week. Britain's FTSE is flat at the moment. Its financial issues are also relatively weak as Barclays (BCS), HSBC (HBC), and Lloyds Group (LYG) reside in the red. However, pharmaceutical plays GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and AstraZeneca (AZN) have exhibited strength. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei dropped to a near two-month low as it lost 1.1%, but its fall steadied at its 200-day moving average. Honda Motor (HMC) and Sony (SNE) were primary sources of weakness in the move lower. Meanwhile, Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 0.6% amid weakness in financial issues like HSBC, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, and China Life. The Hang Seng remains below its 200-day moving average, which was violated last week. In Mainland China, the Shanghai Composite slipped just 0.1%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.80. Despite a handful of earnings reports, including a beat from CVS Corp (CVS) and a miss from Loews Corp (L), overall news flow has been a bit slow this morning and there are not any forthcoming economic reports. That, along with mixed action overseas and moderate weakness in the dollar, has stock futures pricing in a flat start for the session.

06:44 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.00.

06:44 am : Nikkei...9951.82...-105.30...-1.10%. Hang Seng...19550.89...-114.20...-0.60%.

06:44 am : FTSE...5067.95...+6.20...+0.10%. DAX...5460.68...+26.20...+0.50%.

Special thanks to Yahoo! Finance and CNNMoney for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
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