Written By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis
(wide range body analysis)T
rade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge
in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, although this journal contains advertisements involving my trade methods, it does contain useful trading tips
a few times per week. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips that can improve your trading and understand that profitable trading involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader
that's the same as my user name on twitter.
Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=71&t=458
Today's results are 1 win : 1 loss : 1 breakeven. Only a few trades today because of a snow storm that closed my kids schools. Thus, spouse was out for the day and I had to take care of the kids. This isn't how I wanted my February to end but that's the life (my life) as a retail trader with a home office and a family. FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.
Trading Tip: Trades that results in big profits often contain key changes in supply/demand information within the price action. Thus, they are an excellent source of support/resistance zones to help confirm trades at a later date.
In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htmhttp://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm
Also, if you're interested in having free access
to one of my profitable trade strategies along with earning extra income with little effort...join my referral program @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ReferralProgram.htm
My Trading Performance: +1.50
points in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures
------------------------------ Stocks: Mixed Day, Tough Week
By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
February 26, 2010: 5:53 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks ended little changed Friday as investors showed caution after a surprise drop in existing home sales, a surprise rise in GDP growth and AIG's worse-than-expected quarterly decline.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained about 4 points, or less than 0.1%. The S&P 500 index (SPX) added less than 2 points, or 0.1% and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 4 points or 0.2%.
The major indexes ended lower for the week, breaking a two-week up streak.
Stocks seesawed through the morning as investors considered the economic news at the end of a tough week on Wall Street.
Stocks fell this week following a steady stream of worse-than-expected economic reports. Readings on housing, jobless claims, durable goods orders and consumer confidence have all disappointed this week.
Meanwhile, concerns about Greece's debt crisis resurfaced this week after having been tamped down for the last few weeks. Such concerns were soothed a bit Friday after Greece's prime minister said the country would take action to get control of its finances.
"There are so many crosswinds right now and they've really gotten everybody in a bit of a funk," said Tommy Williams, founder and president at Williams Financial Advisors.
"It's interesting that we've had one of the strongest quarterly earnings periods in years, but no one's impressed," he said. "I think if we don't see some improvement in the economic indicators, stocks are going to keep moving sideways."
AIG: The financial services behemoth reported a $9 billion quarterly loss Friday, partly because of the costs connected to selling off big stakes in its insurance businesses to pay back some of the debt it owes taxpayers.
The loss was narrower than a year earlier, but bigger than what analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected. AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) shares fell 10%.
Housing: Existing home sales for January fell to a 5.05 million unit annual rate from a revised 5.44 million unit rate in December, according to a National Association of Realtors report released in the morning.
Sales were expected to rise to a 5.5 million unit rate, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com.
The report followed a weaker-than-expected new home sales report from the government, released earlier in the week. Both reports reflected the impact of the homebuyer tax rebates, which were initially expected to end Nov. 30 and then got extended. The perceived end of the rebates jacked up sales in November, taking away some sales from December and January.
Looking forward, economists expect existing home sales to pick up, particularly as prices stay low.
GDP: Fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth (GDP) grew at a 5.9% annual rate, versus the initially reported rate of 5.7%. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought GDP would hold steady at 5.7%. GDP grew 2.2% in the third quarter.
Economy: In a busy day for economic news, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was also released. Sentiment dipped to 73.6 in February from 73.7 in January, versus forecasts for a rise to 73.9.
Another report, the Chicago purchasing managers' index on regional manufacturing, rose to 62.6 in February from 61.5 in the previous month, indicating further expansion in the sector. Economists thought the index would fall to 59.7.
0:00 /3:27Greece - cut the fat!
World Markets: In overseas trading, European markets rallied, with the London FTSE rising 1.5%, the French CAC 40 rising 1.9% and the German DAX rising 1.2%. Asian markets ended higher.
The dollar and commodities: The dollar fell versus the euro and the yen.
The dollar's weakness gave a lift to dollar-traded commodities, including oil and gold.
U.S. light crude oil for April delivery settled up $1.49 to $79.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
COMEX gold for April delivery gained $10.40 to settle at $1,118.90 per ounce.
Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the the 10-year note to 3.54% from 3.59%. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions. Yahoo! Finance
4:20 pm : All the whipsaw action earlier this week left participants subdued for most of the week's final session. That left stocks to spend most of the session trading listlessly in a tight range.
Participants were generally unmoved by the revised fourth quarter GDP numbers. The headline growth rate was upwardly revised to reflect 5.9% annualized growth rate, which exceeded expectations, but the personal consumption component increased at a softer-than-expected clip of 1.7%. Core personal consumption expenditures increased at a faster-than-expected quarter-over-quarter clip of 1.6%, though.
The rest of the morning's economic data also failed to lift the mood of market participants. Specifically, existing home sales for January made a surprise 7.2% month-over-month drop to an annualized rate of 5.05 million units. Meanwhile, the final February Consumer Sentiment Survey from University of Michigan was little changed at 73.6 and in-line with expectations.
During recent months weakness in the dollar has been cause for stock market gains, but participants shrugged off the dollar's latest dip. The greenback had gyrated in the early going as the euro garnered support as news that United Kingdom GDP was upwardly revised overshadowed the latest batch of headlines regarding Greece's fiscal woes. The greenback eventually rolled over to finish with a 0.5% loss against competing currencies.
Financials attempted to provide the stock market with a late lift, but the move lost momentum into the close. Still, JPMorgan Chase (JPM 41.97, +1.33) led the financial sector to a 0.7% gain, which was better than that of any other major sector. Though there was no specific news item to account for strength in JPM, it was still able to put together its best single-session percentage gain in more than three months.
AIG (AIG 24.77, -2.74) was a laggard in the financial sector. The booked its worst single-session loss by percent in nearly three months after its latest quarterly results proved disappointing.
In other earnings news, a better-than-expected bottom line from Gap (GPS 21.50, +1.11) helped shares of the retailer put together their best single-session percentage gain since September.
Though the broader market was able to eke out a gain, it wasn't enough to turn stocks positive for the week. Instead, the S&P 500 settled with a weekly loss of 0.4%. Despite that slip, the stock market finished February with a 2.8% monthly gain.
Trading volume on the NYSE exceeded both its 50-day moving average and its 200-day moving average as more than 1.5 billion shares exchanged hands on the big board.
Commodities finished the month on a strong note. As such, the CRB Commodity Index finished the session with a 1.2% gain, which helped drive a 3.5% monthly gain.
Treasuries had a relatively quiet session. Though the benchmark 10-year Note settled off of its high, it still netted a few ticks to push its yield back toward 3.60%.
Advancing Sectors: Financials (+0.7%), Industrials (+0.4%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.2%), Energy (+0.2%), Telecom (+0.2%), Health Care (+0.1%), Tech (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Utilities (-0.7%), Consumer Staples (-0.5%)
Unchanged: MaterialsDJ30 +4.23 NASDAQ +4.04 NQ100 +0.3% R2K -0.3% SP400 +0.1% SP500 +1.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1231/2.26 bln/1420 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1804/1.25 bln/1219
3:30 pm : Equities are holding onto modest gains on very light volume. Volume in the pits has also been weak. However, a weak dollar has boosted commodity prices this session.
Precious metals eeked out a 1.5% gain this session. April gold futures closed 0.9% higher at $1118.50 per ounce, marking the second consecutive close above the $1100 level. Silver futures saw a more pronounced gain. The March contract closed 2.4% higher at $16.50 per ounce.
The energy complex also posted strong gains this session, closing 1.7% higher. April crude oil advanced as the dollar broke down late in the morning. The front month contract hit resistance at the key $80 level, though. It closed 1.8% higher at $79.61 per barrel. RBOB gasoline and heating oil futures also netted gains just shy of 2.0% this session. Natural gas futures lagged the rest of the energy space. The April natural gas contract closed 0.8% higher at $4.81 per MMBtu.DJ30 +21.84 NASDAQ +7.35 SP500 +3.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1293/1.66 bln/1340 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1809/690 mln/1162
3:00 pm : Stocks head into the final hour of the week's final session with a week-to-date loss of roughly 0.5%. Such a slide would follow two straight weekly gains, which have helped position the stock market for a monthly gain of 2.9%. Still, stocks are down almost 1% since the start of the new year. DJ30 +22.30 NASDAQ +5.88 SP500 +2.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1233/1.41 bln/1379 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1752/614 mln/1232
2:30 pm : The stock market has managed to hold on to its modest gains, which were scored in recent action, but trade remains rather choppy.
Trading volume has been light this session. At the current pace of trade, volume is unlikely to break above 1 billion shares on the NYSE. DJ30 +15.12 NASDAQ +5.21 SP500 +2.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1188/1.39 bln/1401 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1727/579 mln/1233
2:00 pm : The financial sector has jumped out to a 0.7% gain during the past few minutes. The gain is better than that of any other major sector.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM 42.26, +1.62) is a primary leader among financial stocks, though there isn't any specific news item to account for its relative strength. Nonetheless, its breakout this session has the stock on pace for its best single-session percentage gain in more than four months. Such a strong move has helped shares of JPM put together a week-to-date gain of more than 5% and a month-to-date gain of more than 8%. DJ30 +18.75 NASDAQ +4.90 SP500 +2.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1185/1.29 bln/1395 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1727/535 mln/1222
1:30 pm : All three of the major indices are stuck at the neutral line in listless, lackluster trade.
Meanwhile, small-caps and mid-caps are mired in weakness with moderate losses, such that the Russell 2000 is down 0.4% and the S&P 400 is down 0.2%.
The Nasdaq 100 is trading with relative strength. It is up 0.2% at the moment. Large-cap tech issues like Research In Motion (RIMM 70.86, +1.01) and Apple (AAPL 204.69, +2.69) are leaders. DJ30 +2.35 NASDAQ +1.78 SP500 +0.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1109/1.17 bln/1453 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1578/487 mln/1349
1:00 pm : There have been plenty of headlines to act as catalysts for trade, but stocks have stayed pretty close to the neutral line this session.
The tone in the broader market has been mixed since the opening bell. Participants appeared indifferent to a better-than-expected revised reading for fourth quarter GDP, which hit a 5.9% annualized clip. However, personal consumption figures were rather mixed relative to expectations.
Meanwhile, existing home sales for January made an unexpected 7.2% month-over-month decline, while the final February Consumer Sentiment Survey from University of Michigan was essentially unchanged from its initial reading and in-line with expectations.
Not even a weaker dollar has brought participants into the market. The greenback is currently down 0.4% against a basket of foreign currencies. It had been down as much as 0.7% and up fractionally at its session high. Amid news of an upwardly revised GDP reading for the United Kingdom and continued headlines about Greece's fiscal woes, the euro has been a primary challenger of the dollar this session.
While the broader market is evenly divided between advancing issues and decliners at the moment and the mood among participants has been one of indifference, better-than-expected earnings from Gap (GPS 21.60, +1.21) have helped the retailer put together its best single-session percentage gain since August.
AIG (AIG 24.92, -2.59) is at the other end of things. The stock is on track for its worst single-session performance by percent in nearly three months after it reported this morning disappointing quarterly numbers.
Commodities have had a solid session. As such, the CRB Commodity Index currently sports a 1.2% gain.
Treasuries have had a relatively quiet session, but recently picked up some additional support. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is up roughly 10 ticks. That has been enough to trim its yield to just under 3.60%, which was last done roughly two weeks ago. DJ30 -7.48 NASDAQ +0.23 SP500 -0.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1034/1.09 bln/1486 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1447/450 mln/1472
12:30 pm : Stocks are back at the unchanged mark after failing to sustain recent gains. Underlying action is mixed with advancing issues and decliners within the S&P 500 in near perfect balance.
Action this session has been choppy, but rather anticlimactic, especially in the wake of the prior session, when the stock market was down nearly 2% at its session low, but rallied to settle with a modest loss. Two sessions ago stocks put together a strong, broad-based advance that netted a 1% gain, which was effectively a rebound from a 1.2% loss in the session before. After all of that, stocks are down 0.6% for the week, but they are up 2.7% for the month. DJ30 +3.10 NASDAQ -0.88 SP500 +0.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 999/975 mln/1511 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1478/406 mln/1450
12:00 pm : Shares of airlines are having an exceptionally strong session that has lifted the Amex Airline Index (XAL 36.06, +0.81) to a 2.3% gain. US Airways (LCC 7.29, +0.21) is one of the highest fliers in the group.
Notably, strength among airline stocks extends beyond this session. Specifically, airline stocks are up a collective 6.8% since the start of the new year. Such a performance puts airline stocks among the best performers in the first part of this year. DJ30 +9.22 NASDAQ +1.78 SP500 +1.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1094/849 mln/1386 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1599/364 mln/1305
11:30 am : The dollar has descended to a fresh session low against competing currencies, such that it now trades with a 0.7% loss. Despite the greenback's pullback, stocks haven't been able to garner anything more than modest support, which has put the three major indices only slightly above the neutral zone.
Commodities continue to trade with strength, though. In fact, the CRB Commodity Index has extended its gain so that it is now at a fresh session high with a gain of 1.1%.
Treasuries have had a quiet session, thus far. The benchmark 10-year Note has spent most of the session just a few ticks into positive territory. Still, that's been enough to bring the Note's yield closer to 3.60%, which hasn't been touched for about two weeks. DJ30 +14.66 NASDAQ +1.72 SP500 +1.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1096/742 mln/1360 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1557/322 mln/1302
11:00 am : The stock market recently moved into positive territory with help from a weakened dollar, which is now down nearly 0.5% to a fresh session low against competing currencies. However, stocks have started to drift downward once again.
Health care stocks currently make up the strongest sector in the S&P 500. The group is up a collective 0.5% as managed care names (+1.8%) garner support. According to a Reuters report, President Barack Obama and Republicans clashed frequently on Thursday at a summit regarding health care reform.
Consumer staples stocks are at the other end of things. The sector is down 0.4% as brewers (-1.0%) and food distributors (-0.6%) lag. DJ30 +8.92 NASDAQ +0.17 SP500 +1.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1011/613 mln/1389 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1494/269 mln/1325
10:30 am : Action has been choppy among equities in the early going -- stocks recently rebounded back toward neutral ground after a broad-based slip. However, commodities have managed to trade with steady gains for most of the morning.
Oil is currently one of the strongest plays in the commodity complex. Contracts last priced crude oil at $79.75 per barrel, up 2.0%. Natural gas prices are also up handsomely; they were last quoted at $4.83 per MMBtu, up 1.5%.
Elsewhere in the trading pits, gold prices are up 0.3% to $1111.50 per ounce, while silver prices were last quoted at $16.17 per ounce, up 0.4%. The pair of precious metals have managed to extend their gains in recent action amid a modest pullback by the greenback, which is now down roughly 0.2% against a basket of foreign currencies.
Broad-based strength among commodities has helped the CRB Commodity Index make its way to a 1.0% gain, which puts it at a session high. DJ30 +0.61 NASDAQ +0.10 SP500 -0.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 924/448 mln/1380 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1342/202 mln/1422
10:00 am : The absence of leadership in the early going has made for some rather choppy action in the broader market. However, stocks have recently retreated to a fresh morning low with the latest dose of data.
Existing home sales for January fell 7.2% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 5.05 million units. The consensus had called for a 0.9% month-over-month increase to the rate of 5.50 million units.
The final February Consumer Sentiment Survey from University of Michigan came in at 73.6, which is essentially flat from the initial reading and in-line with expectations.
Early movers: Trading up -- RST +27.2%, CKR +25.9%, CHUX +10.8%, BIOS +9.4%, DECK +8.8%, INT +8.6%, MGLN +8.4%; Trading down -- PMFG -25.8%, RMTI -25.1%, BXS -21%, CBLI -18.4%, WTW -12.2%, ATHN -11.2%, NVTL -11.2%, CROX -8.7%
Advancing Sectors: Health Care (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Utilities (-0.4%), Consumer Staples (-0.4%), Materials (-0.4%), Consumer Staples (-0.4%), Tech (-0.3%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.3%), Financials (-0.3%), Energy (-0.2%), Industrials (-0.2%)DJ30 -0.98 NASDAQ -3.67 SP500 -0.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 910/267 mln/1322 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1191/128 mln/1485
09:45 am : Stocks slipped in the first few moments of trade, but they have since bounced back to the neutral line. Early action remains listless, though.
The Chicago PMI was just released. It came in at 62.6, which is better than the reading of 59.7 that had been widely expected. The number also marks a pick up from the prior reading of 61.5.
Due in just a few minutes (9:55 AM ET) is the final Consumer Sentiment Survey for February from University of Michigan. DJ30 +2.04 NASDAQ -2.71 SP500 +0.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 923/163 mln/1173 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1325/85 mln/1262
09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.30. The stock market heads into this session with a week-to-date loss of little more than 0.5%, which is the result of several consecutive whipsaw sessions. The tone this morning is rather subdued, though. In turn, stock futures point to a flat start for the major equity averages. The tepid tone comes as the dollar oscillates along the unchanged mark and participants show a mixed response to a better-than-expected headline fourth quarter GDP reading, which was upwardly revised to 5.9% from 5.7%, and mixed personal consumption numbers for the quarter. The United Kingdom also had an upwardly revised GDP reading, which seems to have helped prop up the major European bourses and give the euro some moderate strength in the face of ongoing concerns regarding Greece's fiscal health. There are still some more headlines to come this morning, including the Chicago PMI Index at 9:45 AM ET, the final reading for the February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 9:55 AM ET, and January Existing Home Sales Report at 10:00 AM ET.
09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.50. U.S. stock futures are still generally flat, though they have reclaimed a couple of points in recent action. Led by Allianz (AZ), Germany's DAX is currently up 0.7%, but that's not enough to give the bourse a weekly gain. Instead, the DAX is on track for a weekly loss of nearly 3%. In France, the CAC is up 0.9%. Saint Gobain is a primary leader in current action. Financial outfits BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole have provided additional support. The CAC is also on track for a near 3% weekly loss. Britain's FTSE is currently up 0.8% and led by resource-linked shares of BP PLC (BP) and Rio Tinto (RTP). The FTSE is currently on track for a weekly loss of roughly 1%. According to reports, the United Kingdom's revised fourth quarter GDP figure showed that economy expanded 0.3%, which is stronger than the 0.1% increase originally estimated. In other reports, the European Union is pushing Greece to adopt new measures to slash the country's budget deficit, while Greece's Prime Minister said in a story from Reuters that the worst fears about Greece's economy had been confirmed. In Asia, The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.6% and Japan's Nikkei eked out a 0.2% gain. Toyota Motor (TM) was a strong performer after it shed roughly one-fifth of its market value during the coure of the past month amid concerns for car recalls. Japanese factory output in January climbed a better-than-expected 2.5% month-over-month. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng advanced 1.0%. Property and banking shares were strong performers. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite continued to trade out of sync with the other major market averages; it slipped 0.3% as Petrochina (PTR) underperformed in its final session of the week. Still, the composite index advanced more than 1% this week.
08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.80. Neither stock futures nor the dollar showed much of an immediate reaction to the revised fourth quarter GDP reading, but in the last couple of minutes the greenback has made its way up from a modest loss to a fractional gain. Stock futures still point to a flat start for the session, though. The revised fourth quarter GDP figure showed annualized growth of 5.9%. That is faster than the 5.7% growth rate that had been expected. Personal consumption during the fourth quarter increased 1.7%, which is below the 2.0% increase that many had come to expect. Core personal consumption expenditures increased at a quarter-over-quarter rate of 1.6%, which is a sharper rise than the expected 1.4% increase.
08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Strength overseas has failed to carry over to the U.S., where equity futures are currently flat. The tepid tone comes amid moderate weakness in the dollar, which has lost ground against the euro even though Greece's Prime Minister said in a story from Reuters that the worst fears about Greece's economy had been confirmed. Premarket participants have shown some disappointment over AIG's latest quarterly results, which have sent AIG shares down nearly 12% to $24.25 each ahead of the opening bell. Traders are also taking a cautionary stance ahead of the revised fourth quarter GDP figure, which is due at the bottom of the hour. The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index for February is due at 9:45 AM ET, then the final February Consumer Sentiment Index from University of Michigan at 9:55 AM ET. Existing home sales for January immediately follow at 10:00 AM ET.
06:41 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.30.
06:41 am : Nikkei...10126.03...+24.10...+0.20%. Hang Seng...20608.70...+209.10...+1.00%.
06:41 am : FTSE...5321.54...+43.30...+0.80%. DAX...5577.64...+45.30...+0.80%. Special thanks to Yahoo! Finance and CNNMoney for their market summaries.
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis
(wide range body analysis)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
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