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 Post subject: January 15th Friday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +15.20
PostPosted: Fri Jan 15, 2010 7:19 pm 
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Written By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, although this journal contains advertisements involving my trade methods, it does contain useful trading tips a few times per week. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips that can improve your trading and understand that profitable trading involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader that's the same as my user name on twitter.

Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=70&t=427.

Quote:
Today's results are 5 wins : 1 loss. As stated yesterday in the #FuturesTrades log, I expected a trend day today or a strong directional price movement via WRB Analysis. However, I thought for sure there'll be at least one good counter-thrust prior to the trend continuing and such (counter-thrust) didn't appear. The key change in supply/demand (WRB S/R Zone) occurred @ 0700am est and I felt that it would eventually suck the Emini TF back down if TF was able to trade above it. In fact, my best trade of the day was via Emini TF price action interacting with that prior key change in supply/demand area..


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, if you're interested in having free access to one of my profitable trade strategies along with earning extra income with little effort...join my referral program @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ReferralProgram.htm

My Trading Performance: +15.20 points in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures

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Triple-Digit Sell-Off For The Dow
By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
January 15, 2010: 5:47 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks slipped Friday, one day after closing at multi-month highs, as investors welcomed better-than-expected profit reports from JPMorgan Chase and Intel, but opted to sell shares regardless.

A mild reading on inflation, a mostly in-line reading on manufacturing and a better-than-expected report on consumer sentiment were also in the mix.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 100 points, or 1%. The S&P 500 index (SPX) lost 12 points, or 1.1%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 29 points or 1.2%.

Stocks managed gains Thursday, with the Dow and the S&P 500 closing at the highest point since Oct. 1, 2008, and the Nasdaq ending at the highest point since Sept. 3, 2008.

But gains so far this year have been slow, following last year's big runup, when the Dow gained 19%, The S&P 500 gained 23% and the Nasdaq gained 44%. Stocks are likely to drift as investors wait for more fourth-quarter profit and economic reports.

Investors were also focusing on some of the negatives in JPMorgan and Intel's otherwise positive quarterly results, said Dave Rovelli, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Canaccord Adams.

"JPMorgan had incredible earnings, but their credit card writeoffs were bigger than what people were expecting and moving in the wrong direction," said Rovelli. "That's making people nervous."

He said that with unemployment a constant for now and the Fed at some point this year likely to start raising rates, investors are wondering if the credit losses are going to get worse heading forward. The broad bank sector tumbled, with the KBW Bank (BKX) index falling 2.2%.

Results: JPMorgan Chase reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit of $3.3 billion Friday morning, trouncing estimates, as the financial behemoth moved closer toward making a full recovery from last year's credit crisis.

But revenue missed forecasts. JPMorgan (JPM, Fortune 500) also reported big losses on credit card and mortgage loans, concerning investors who were looking for signs that credit is improving. The company also added $1.9 billion to its consumer loan loss reserves.

JPMorgan shares fell 2%.

Other big financial shares slipped too, including Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) and Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500).

Dow component Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) reported quarterly results after the close of trade Thursday. The chipmaker said it earned 40 cents per share in the fourth quarter on sales of $10.6 billion.

Both earnings and sales beat estimates and marked a sharp improvement from the previous year. But shares slipped 3% in Friday trading.
Homebuyer tax credit: long delays

Economy: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 72.8 in January from 72.5 in December. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought it would rise to 74.

The Consumer Price index, a key measure of inflation, rose 0.1% in December versus forecasts for a rise of 0.2%. CPI rose 0.4% in the previous month. The so-called core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.1%, meeting estimates. Core CPI was flat in the previous month.

Another report, the Empire Manufacturing index, showed manufacturing activity in the New York area bounced back in December, rising to 15.9 from a revised 4.5 in the previous month. Economists thought it would climb to 12.
0:00 /2:11Corporations aid Haiti

World markets: Asian markets ended lower, with the exception of the Nikkei, which gained. European markets tumbled.

Commodities and the dollar: The dollar gained versus the euro and fell versus the yen.

COMEX gold for February delivery fell $12.50 to settle at $1,130.50 an ounce. Gold closed at an all-time high of $1,218.30 an ounce last month.

U.S. light crude oil for February delivery fell $1.39 to settle at $78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied in a classic bid-to-quality play, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.67% from 3.73% late Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers topped winners by over two to one on volume of 1.41 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers nearly three to one on volume of 2.69 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Sellers crowded the market to hand stocks their worst loss in four weeks. The broad-based push came despite better-than-expected earnings from bellwethers Intel and JPMorgan.

Semiconductor giant Intel (INTC 20.80, -0.68) announced after the previous session's close better-than-expected earnings of $0.40 per share. It even went on and issued solid revenue guidance for the current quarter. However, participants opted to sell the news of the beat after they had watched the stock climb appreciably in the sessions ahead of its report. The stock is still up roughly 2% since the start of the year.

Meanwhile, banking giant JPMorgan (JPM 43.68, -1.01) was dropped for a loss as participants showed dissatisfaction in the company's need to remain cautious toward consumer credit and persistent loss provisions. The reaction reflects the requirement of participants for higher quality earnings and explicit signs that the economic recovery is for real after watching stocks surge since March.

The latest batch of economic data did little for participants. December's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.1% month-over-month, which is a slightly softer increase than the 0.2% monthly increase that many economists had forecast, but still generally in-line with expectations. Excluding food and energy, the December CPI increased 0.1% month-over-month, as expected.

Industrial production in December increased 0.6%, as expected. Capacity utilization for December came in at 72.0%, which is on par with the 71.8% utilization rate that many had come to expect.

The preliminary January Consumer Sentiment Survey from University of Michigan came in at 72.8, which was slightly below the expected reading of 74.0, and slightly changed from the 72.5 that was posted in the previous month.

Without any data to inspire buyers to keep the stock market's recent uptrend intact, sellers were able to wrest control. Their efforts were broad based, but weakness was particularly noticeable among banks, which shared in JPMorgan's weakness and dropped 2.2%, according to the KBW Bank Index. That loss made financials the worst performing sector of the session -- it shed 2.0% in its worst percentage loss in one month.

Every other major sector also logged a loss; half of the sectors fell by at least 1%.

A stronger dollar, which was helped by continued concern about the financial health of Greece, exacerbated this session's weakness and helped the selling effort spread to commodities. Weakness in the commodities complex dragged the CRB Commodity Index to a 1.1% loss. The slide made for a weak finish to an already-feeble week that saw commodities fall more than 3% since Monday.

Weakness among stocks and commodities helped win support for Treasuries, such that gains in the benchmark 10-year Note trimmed its yield to a three-week low. The 10-year finished with a gain of roughly 15 ticks and a yield of 3.67%.

The expiration of January options drove trading volume on the NYSE above 1.4 billion shares to a near one-month high. However, the expiration of those options distorts conviction in this session's move.

U.S. markets will be closed this coming Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. However, participants will return from the long weekend to a bevy of earnings releases as more than 100 companies are scheduled to report their latest quarterly results next week. A complete calendar of those reports is available at Briefing.com.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Financials (-2.0%), Telecom (-1.4%), Tech (-1.3%), Industrials (-1.2%), Materials (-1.1%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.9%), Energy (-0.8%), Consumer Staples (-0.7%), Utilities (-0.6%), Health Care (-0.4%)DJ30 -100.90 NASDAQ -28.75 SP500 -12.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 704/2.68 bln/1996 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 935/1.41 bln/2110

3:35 pm : Despite a recent lift, losses in stocks remain widespread. Financials continue to weigh on the broader market. The sector is currently down 1.8%.

Meanwhile, materials and energy are down 1.2% and 1.0%, respectively.

Crude oil futures declined for the fifth consecutive session. The International Energy Agency's (IEA) monthly report on oil demand took part in the bearish bias. Earlier in the day, the IEA held 2010 projections for world oil demand virtually unchanged from their December forecast of 1.7% growth over 2009. The agency cited sluggish oil-demand recovery in industrialized nations. February crude oil closed 1.8% lower at $77.95 per barrel.

On the other hand, natural gas futures were among the best performers in the pit trade this session, following yesterday's steep 2.5% decline. The February contract closed down 1.8% at $5.69 per MMBtu; it is still down almost 7% since hitting a high on Jan. 7 that hadn't been seen since December 2008.

Precious metals traded lower as the dollar trended higher throughout the session. Gold and silver futures closed near session lows as the dollar index was not far from a session high. February gold closed 1.0% lower at $1131.00 per ounce. March silver closed 1.2% lower at $18.44 per ounce.DJ30 -137.25 NASDAQ -34.98 SP500 -15.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 546/1.46 bln/2040 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 664/750 mln/2310

3:00 pm : The dollar has added to its already-strong gains as the end of the session draws near. In turn, the Dollar Index is now up 0.8% to a fresh session high. The buck's bounce has been a detriment to both stocks and the commodities complex this session; it has effectively exacerbated participants' eagerness to take profits. DJ30 -117.60 NASDAQ -30.15 SP500 -13.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 614/2.01 bln/2051 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 732/980 mln/2291

2:30 pm : Selling pressure remains steady as stocks trade sideways near their session lows. Volume remains strong as a result of traders exercising options that are scheduled to expire at the closing bell. However, news flow has slowed considerably.

News flow will pick up again next week, when companies begin to report their quarterly results in earnest. Those results will be the focus of most market participants since many investors are anxious to see whether companies have been able to put together higher quality earnings that aren't the result of cost reductions. Cost reductions were a primary reason for better-than-expected earnings in recent quarters, but investors want to see stronger signs that the economic recovery has taken hold. DJ30 -129.31 NASDAQ -32.41 SP500 -15.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 597/1.88 bln/2062 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 725/923 mln/2294

2:00 pm : The major indices continue to trace along their session lows as they move sideways in a narrow range. There haven't been any positive catalysts to give participants a break from this session's pessimism.

Volatility has picked up in light of this session's selling pressure. Specifically, the Volatility Index is up 6.2% this session. The VIX remains moderately above the 52-week low that it set on Monday, though. DJ30 -125.32 NASDAQ -31.10 SP500 -14.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 592/1.75 bln/2036 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 714/872 mln/2290

1:30 pm : Stocks continue to steadily crawl lower. That has left nine of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 with losses in excess of 1.0%. Only consumer staples stocks have managed to limit their losses to less than 1.0%, but not by much -- consumer staples stocks have shed 0.9% this session.

Amid such widespread weakness, the broader market's losses are the worst by percent since a 1.7% drop in late November.

The stock market's slide hasn't been isolated, though. Many overseas markets showed weakness in their final session of the weak, such that the Dow Jones World Index has fallen 1.0%.DJ30 -136.87 NASDAQ -32.80 SP500 -15.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 579/1.67 bln/2036 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 679/827 mln/2315

1:00 pm : The major indices are down more than 1% at midday, near recently reached session lows, as earnings beats at bellwethers Intel (INTC 21.06, -0.42) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 43.76, -0.93) failed to stimulate buying interest, underscoring how the market's bar of expectations has risen along with stock prices. Losses are broad-based with all 10 sectors posting a loss.

The worst performing areas are financials (-2.3%) and utilities (-1.7%). The consumer staples (-0.8%) sector is outperforming on a relative basis.

Financials came under pressure as investors showed disappointment over the earnings report from heavyweight JPMorgan Chase. JPMorgan Chase posted some strong results relative to the year-ago period, yet it added $1.9 billion to consumer loan loss reserves and acknowledged it remains cautious since consumer credit costs are high, and weak unemployment and home prices persist. In turn, shares are down 2.1%

In other earnings news, Intel is down 2.0% despite reporting better-than-expected earnings and revenue.

Economic data was uneventful as the major releases were in-line with expectations.

December CPI rose 0.2% and Core CPI rose 0.1%. Meanwhile, Capacity Utilization in December was at 72.3%, while Industrial Production rose 0.6%.

In commodity trading, the CRB Index is down 1.0% as gold sheds 1.2% and oil declines 1.4%. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index is up 0.6%.DJ30 -138.76 NASDAQ -32.86 SP500 -15.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 549/1.37 bln/2028 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 672/707 mln/2296

12:25 pm : Stocks trade at or near session lows.

Losses are broad-based with all ten sectors posting a loss.DJ30 -119.49 NASDAQ -30.64 SP500 -13.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 549/1.37 bln/2028 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 672/707 mln/2296

12:00 pm : Stocks slipped sharply in the first few minutes of the session, but have continued to gradually drift lower toward their weekly lows for the past couple of hours. The downtrend has given declining issues a 10-to-1 advantage over advancing issues in the S&P 500.

Of the declining issues, regional bank Fifth Third (FITB 11.32, -0.45) has been a primary laggard. Earlier this morning its shares were hit with a brokerage downgrade, which has added to the weakness that already surrounds banking issues in wake of the latest report from JPMorgan (JPM 43.94, -0.75). DJ30 -116.39 NASDAQ -29.28 SP500 -13.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 543/1.30 bln/2019 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 648/695 mln/2308

11:30 am : The major indices continue to trade near their lows. Should their losses hold into the close, it will mark one of the stock market's worst single-session performances in four weeks. Moreover, such a loss would erase this week's gains and put the broader market back where it was last week.

Commodities continue to trade with weakness as well. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index is down 0.6%. That stems largely from strength in the U.S. dollar, which has made its way to a 0.6% gain against competing currencies. The greenback has found favor among currency traders following continued concern about the financial health of Greece. DJ30 -105.51 NASDAQ -23.85 SP500 -12.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 559/1.15 bln/1964 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 686/642 mln/2259

11:00 am : Stocks are near session lows, which happen to be just above their lows for the week. Accordingly, weakness remains widespread, such that each of the major equity averages is down by at least 1.0%.

Retailers have fared rather well, though. As a group, retailers are up 0.3%. Staples (SPLS 25.51, +0.50) is a primary leader in the pack, thanks to an upgrade from analysts at JP Morgan.

Still, weakness in the broader market has given support to Treasuries. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is up a handsome 20 ticks. That has pushed its yield down to 3.66%, which is roughly a three-week low. DJ30 -108.00 NASDAQ -22.96 SP500 -11.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 556/994 mln/1925 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 658/585 mln/2256

10:30 am : The US Dollar Index is extending gains in mid-morning trading activity, which has pushed crude back near session lows and precious metals to fresh session lows.

February crude oil traded in negative territory overnight. It attempted to rally at the open of pit trading, but that move was short-lived as the energy component reversed sharply to fresh session lows of $78.35 per barrel, hit ~15 minutes ago. Currently, crude is 1.1% lower at $78.48 per barrel.

February natural gas traded in the red for most of its overnight session, but began to rally an hour before pit trading opened, pushing into positive territory and to morning highs of $5.693 per MMBtu. Natural gas is currently just under those highs at $5.662 per MMBtu, up 1.3%.

Precious metals remain in negative territory and just hit fresh session lows on the dollar's strength with February gold touching $1126.50 per ounce and March silver hitting $18.40 per ounce. Gold is currently at $1128.80 per ounce, down 1.2%, while silver is 1.2% lower at $18.43 per ounce.DJ30 -87.37 NASDAQ -20.23 SP500 -10.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 555/794.1 mln/1884 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 629/510.4 mln/2221

10:00 am : Stock futures have extended their morning downturn in broad-based fashion. The move follows news that the preliminary January consumer sentiment reading from University of Michigan came in at 72.8, which is slightly below the expected reading of 74.0, but up slightly from the 72.5 that was posted in December.

All 10 major sectors are now in negative territory. Losses remains steepest among financials (-1.6%) and telecom (-1.2%). Defensive-oriented consumer staples stocks (-0.1%) and health care stocks (-0.2%) have managed to limit their losses, though.

Early movers: Trading up -- BARE +42.2%, FNET +33.3%, TGB +13.8%, MTW +10%, IDC +9.9%, SHFL +7.7%, GMO +7%, OMX +6.9%, BG +6.1%, LAVA +6.1%, SQNM +5.8%; Trading down -- FALC -13.4%, AZZ -9.4%, ATHX -8.4%, CAAS -7.9%, CTCM -5.3%

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Financials (-1.6%), Telecom (-1.2%), Materials (-0.9%), Industrials (-0.9%), Energy (-0.9%), Tech (-0.6%), Utilities (-0.6%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.4%), Health Care (-0.2%), Consumer Staples (-0.1%)DJ30 -75.20 NASDAQ -17.22 SP500 -8.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 648/551 mln/1675 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 691/428 mln/2072

09:45 am : Stocks in the broader market are down with modest losses in the first few minutes of action, but financials have come under a concerted selling effort that has knocked the sector to a 1.2% loss. Weakness in the sector is focused around banks -- the KBW Banking Index is currently down 1.2% -- amid disappointment from the latest quarterly report from JPMorgan (JPM 43.88, -0.81).

Telecom stocks are also weak this morning; they are currently down 0.8%, collectively. The sector's slide comes as an extension of recent weakness -- telecom is down more than 3% this week.

Trading volume is strong in the early going, but that is primarily because this is an options-expiration session. Nonetheless, more than 350 million shares have alreade exchanged hands on the NYSE. DJ30 -22.83 NASDAQ -4.69 SP500 -3.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1038/372 mln/1176 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 997/366 mln/1665

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.80. Stock futures have spent the entire morning mired in moderate weakness that has been stirred by a stronger dollar and a lack of enthusiasm over better-than-expected earnings from both Intel (INTC) and JPMorgan (JPM). Shares of both companies have fallen into negative territory as premarket participants sell the news of Intel's beat -- the stock had outperformed in the sessions ahead of the announcement. As for JPMorgan, concerns about its quarter-over-quarter loss provisions continue to cause concern. The negative reaction to the report goes to show that the hurdle to please the broader market continues to rise as participants look for meaningful improvement. Consumer price readings for December were in-line with expectations, so reaction to the CPI report was muted. Just released, industrial production in December increased 0.6%, as expected. Capacity utilization for December was also just released -- it came in at 72.0%, which is on par with the 71.8% utilization rate that many had come to expect. Due later this morning (9:55 AM ET) is the preliminary consumer sentiment reading for January from University of Michigan.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.00. U.S. stock futures continue to trade without much support. Meanwhile, Europe's major indices are flat to markedly lower as Britain's FTSE moves along with a mere 0.1% gain. It has been helped by HSBC (HBC), which was upgraded by analysts at Deutsche Bank. However, weakness in pharmaceutical plays has weighed on trade. In Germany, the DAX is currently down 0.9%. SAP (SAP) has slid considerably amid news that analysts at Morgan Stanley cut their recommendation on the stock. Financials have also fared poorly. In France, the CAC is currently down 0.5%. BNP Paribas and Societe Generale are both laggards. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.5%, while Japan's Nikkei added 0.7%. Tech shares showed strength after Intel (INTC) posted strong earnings and issued an upbeat forecast. Meanwhile, Japanese cosmetics company Shiseido jumped after it reported that it will buy California-based Bare Escentuals for $1.7 billion. Energy-related stocks lagged, though... In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng slipped 0.3%, though its tech issues were also relatively strong. China Mobile was a primary laggard. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite mustered a 0.3% gain.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.50. Stock futures have ticked higher since the latest release of monthly consumer price data, but they still suggest a lower start to the suggestion. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December increased 0.1% month-over-month, which is a slightly softer increase than the 0.2% monthly increase that many economists had forecast, but still generally in-line with expectations. Excluding food and energy, the December CPI increased 0.1% month-over-month, as expected. CPI and Core CPI were somewhat mixed when compared with November's readings, which showed a 0.4% increase and no change, respectively.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.50. Semiconductor giant and tech bellwether Intel (INTC) posted last evening better-than-expected quarterly earnings and issued strong guidance, while JPMorgan (JPM) followed with better-than-expected earnings of its own this morning. Despite those accomplishments, shares of INTC are up fractionally in premarket action, while shares of JPM are down 1.8% to $43.90 each ahead of the opening bell. Lack of enthusiasm for the reports has been reflected by broader market stock futures, which currently point to a firmly lower start. Strength in the U.S. dollar has dampened the mood a bit. The greenback is currently up 0.5% against a basket of foreign currencies amid ongoing concerns about the financial health of Greece. Several reports are yet to come this morning, beginning with consumer price data for December at 8:30 AM ET, then industrial production and capacity utilization data at 9:15 AM ET. The latest consumer sentiment reading from University of Michigan is due at 9:55 AM ET.

06:53 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.80.

06:53 am : Nikkei...10982.10...+74.40...+0.70%. Hang Seng...21654.16...-62.80...-0.30%.

06:53 am : FTSE...5509.80...+11.50...+0.20%. DAX...5957.60...-31.30...-0.50%.

M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Go Back To TheStrategyLab.com Homepage


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