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 Post subject: January 12th Tuesday 2010 ICE Emini TF ($TF_F) points +8.50
PostPosted: Wed Jan 13, 2010 10:34 am 
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Written By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, although this journal contains advertisements involving my trade methods, it does contain useful trading tips a few times per week. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips that can improve your trading and understand that profitable trading involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader that's the same as my user name on twitter.

Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=70&t=422.

Quote:
Today's results are 5 wins : 1 loss : 1 breakeven. As stated several times over the past few months...I was going to switch from the CME Emini ES futures to the ICE Russell Emini TF futures and today was my big change. As for my trading, I took it easy in my official trading instrument switch eventhough I'm already well acquainted to the Russell 2000 via trading it full time for a few years in the recent past. Trading Tip: Don't get married to any particular trading instrument...your obligation is to your income and not to the trading instrument.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, if you're interested in having free access to one of my profitable trade strategies along with earning extra income with little effort...join my referral program @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ReferralProgram.htm

My Trading Performance: +8.50 ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) points

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Stocks Sink On Earnings Woes
By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
January 12, 2010: 6:01 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks fell Tuesday in a broad-based selloff, after Alcoa's worse-than-expected profit report and Chevron's profit warning unnerved investors at the start of the quarterly profit reporting period.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) sank 37 points, or 0.3%. The S&P 500 index (SPX) lost 11 points, or 0.9%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) slid 30 points, or 1.3%.

Disappointing profit news from Alcoa and Chevron, two big Dow components, was unnerving at the start of a quarterly reporting period that is expected to bring strong growth.

The reports follow last week's weaker-than-expected December payrolls report, which raised worries about growth in the fourth quarter.

At the same time, the financial sector is under pressure as the FDIC, the top banking regulator, considers requiring lenders to pay if they tie compensation to risky practices. Meanwhile, the White House is debating taxing companies that took bailout funds to make sure they pay back the money.

"Everyone was expecting the fourth quarter to be better," said Brian Battle, vice president at Performance Trust Capital Partners. "I think the market has been taken aback by the fact that it may not have been as good as people had thought."

He said that investors were not just reacting to Alcoa's miss, but also to the recent ho-hum economic news and all the focus on the bank sector this week.
Those pesky profit reports

Alcoa: The Dow component reported a profit of 1 cent per share late Monday, versus a loss of 28 cents per share a year ago. Analysts expected the company to have earned 6 cents a share, according to earnings tracker Thomson Reuters. Revenue fell less than expected.

Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) shares slumped 11% Monday.

"People are expecting good fourth-quarter earnings and they are treating Alcoa as a sign that we won't have such good earnings," said Ron Kiddoo, chief investment officer at Cozad Asset Management.

"But Alcoa is one component of the earnings and it always is given too much credit if the results are good and too much credit if they're bad," he said. "We'll get a better sense of what the earnings will look like in the next few weeks."

Chevron: The oil behemoth warned late Monday that sharply lower fourth-quarter refining earnings would drag down its fourth-quarter results. Margins have been pressured because the rising price of oil is not in sync with the weaker demand globally, due to the economic slowdown.

Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) shares fell 1% and pressured fellow Dow oil component Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500).

A variety of oil stocks fell, with the Amex Oil (XOI) index losing 2%.

Other big Dow losers included Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), United Technologies (UTX, Fortune 500), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) and Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500).
0:00 /1:37Alcoa's miss hits other miners

Results and warnings: KB Home (KBH) reported a quarterly profit for the first time in two years, thanks to a tax benefit. However, the homebuilder's revenue dropped from a year ago.

Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) are the biggest companies due to report results this week.

S&P 500 earnings are expected to have risen around 213% from a year ago, according to earnings tracker Thomson Reuters. However, that figure reflects the easy comparisons versus a year ago, the worst quarter in Thomson's history.

The massive turnaround in the financial sector is playing a big role in the earnings recovery, with the sector expected to post a big profit after posting a loss a year ago. That the sector that helped exacerbate the recession is now profiting a year later is a major source of frustration for many investors, especially since taxpayers helped fund the bailouts.

Federal Reserve: The central bank made record profits last year, due to money made off its efforts to stabilize the financial system. The bank made a record $52.1 billion profit in 2009. Of that total, $46.1 billion gets returned to taxpayers with the rest used to cover certain deductions.

Economy: The November trade deficit, released in the morning, widened to $36.4 billion from a revised $33.2 billion in October. The deficit was expected to widen to $34.5 billion, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com.

World markets: Asian markets ended mixed one day after hitting 17-month highs on a report that showed China's exports jumped 17.7% in December versus a year ago. European markets ended lower.

Commodities and the dollar: The dollar gained versus the euro and fell versus the yen.

Gold and oil prices slumped.

COMEX gold for February delivery fell $22 to settle at $1,129.40 an ounce. Gold closed at an all-time high of $1,218.30 an ounce last month.

U.S. light crude oil for February delivery fell $1.73 to settle at $80.79 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied in a classic flight-to-safety, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.71% from 3.82% late Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners by seven to three on volume of 1.097 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers by nine to four on volume of 2.403 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Dampened sentiment that stemmed from an earnings miss at Alcoa led to broad-based weakness that culminated in the stock market's first loss of the new year.

Alcoa (AA 15.52, -1.93) announced last evening earnings results that fell short of the consensus estimate. Though the miss doesn't necessarily carry implications for the broader economy, it did undermine the positive tone of trade that had taken stocks higher in each of the past six sessions.

Commodities were also broadly weak this session. Specifically, the CRB Commodity Index dropped 1.7%, which was its worst single session percentage loss in more than one month.

Softer commodity prices and weakness among Alcoa and other diversified metals plays (-3.8%) dragged the materials sector to a 1.9% loss, which was the worst of the major indices.

Diversified financial services stocks (-2.9%) and diversified bank shares (-1.8%) slumped amid news that the government wants to impose fees on banks to help recoup TARP funds. The weakness that emanated from bank stocks even undercut multiline insurers, which had traded with strength after Hartford Financial (HIG 27.12, +0.95) issued a strong earnings update. Multiline insurers finished fractionally lower, while the broader financial sector fell to a 1.6% loss.

Large-cap tech remained weak. Its losses caused the Nasdaq Composite to lag for the second straight session.

The Dow managed to limit its move to the downside, though. That was largely the result of Procter & Gamble (PG 60.89, +0.69), which was upgraded by analysts at Bank of America's Merrill Lynch. DJ30 -36.73 NASDAQ -30.10 NQ100 -1.3% R2K -1.3% SP400 -1.3% SP500 -10.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 755/2.39 bln/1923 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 852/1.10 bln/2187

3:35 pm : The CRB Commodity index traded down 1.6% this session, mirroring weakness in the equity markets.

Precious metals traded down significantly. February gold and March silver futures closed down 1.9% and 2.4% to close at $1129.40 and $12.26 per ounce, respectively. The session's move followed actions by China to slow growth in avoiding risks to asset bubbles earlier in the day.

Crude oil futures saw similar losses. February crude oil closed down 2.1% at $80.79 per barrel.

Natural gas futures did manage to muster gains, however, even in the face of such a red tape. February natural gas closed 2.4% higher at $5.59 per contract. DJ30 -51.84 NASDAQ -31.43 SP500 -11.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 758/1.97 bln/1920 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 818/792 mln/2226

3:00 pm : The stock market had been stuck in an afternoon drift for the past couple of hours, but it has recently made a modest upturn as participants enter the final hour of the session. Still, stocks are well off of their best levels of the session.

In the meantime, the dollar has managed to pare its losses. It now trades with a loss of just 0.1%, though its losses this session were never too steep.

Trading volume has been rather unimpressive this session. At the current pace of trade it is unlikely that more than 1 billion shares will exchange hands on the NYSE this session. DJ30 -44.66 NASDAQ -31.01 SP500 -11.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 773/1.78 bln/1881 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 838/723 mln/2189

2:30 pm : Semiconductor stocks are particularly weak this session. That has the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX 352.70, -13.92) down almost 4% in its worst single-session percentage loss in three months. The slide among semiconductor stocks comes ahead of the latest report from Intel (INTC 20.45, -0.50), which is scheduled to announce its quarterly results on Thursday. DJ30 -62.73 NASDAQ -34.55 SP500 -12.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 762/1.64 bln/1882 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 793/660 mln/2227

2:00 pm : Losses remain broad-based, but the Dow has managed to limit its decline to nearly half of what its counterparts have seen. The Dow's relatively moderate decline comes amid support for consumer staples giant Procter & Gamble (PG 130.26, +0.78), tech giant IBM (IBM 130.26, +0.78), and big pharma outfit Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 64.39, +0.17). DJ30 -62.12 NASDAQ -33.28 SP500 -12.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 777/1.52 bln/1861 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 790/613 mln/2224

1:30 pm : The stock market remains at its session low. Losses abound as more than 85% of the companies in the S&P 500 trade in negative territory.

Amid the weakness, Treasuries have found support. The benchmark 10-year Note is now up 26 ticks, which has dropped its yield to just above 3.7%. Treasuries caught added attention with news that a $40 billion auction of 3-year Notes produced a yield of 1.49% and a bid-to-cover ratio of nearly 3.0, which is in-line with the last auction, but above recent averages. DJ30 -78.60 NASDAQ -36.36 SP500 -14.5 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 713/1.42 bln/1900 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 746/570 mln/2261

1:00 pm : An earnings miss from Alcoa has weighed on trade for this entire session. As such, broad-based losses have ensued and left the stock market mired in weakness.

Dow component Alcoa (AA 15.63, -1.82) announced last evening that it brought in earnings of one penny per share, but that was below the $0.06 per share that Wall Street had expected. The shortcoming doesn't necessary carry major implications for the broader economy, but it has done some damage to sentiment, especially among other metals and mining plays.

Such weakness has dragged the materials sector to a 2.8% loss. With the CRB Commodity Index down 1.7%, softer commodity prices haven't helped the sector's fortunes.

Oil prices have been particularly weak. Crude futures contracts were last quoted 1.7% lower at $81.10 per barrel. That, along with a disappointing midquarter update from integrated energy play Chevron (CVX 80.00, -0.88), has taken the energy sector to a 1.7% loss.

Pressure has picked up against financials. The sector is now down 1.9% as banks fall from favor. However, multiline insurers have held up well amid a strong earnings update from Hartford Financial (HIG 27.44, +1.27).

Infosys (INFY 57.72, +2.89) posted better-than-expected results for the latest quarter and went on to issue an upside forecast, but weakness continues to dog large-cap tech issues as a whole. Their losses have caused the Nasdaq Composite to underperform its counterparts in recent sessions and left the Nasdaq 100 worse off -- it is currently down 1.7% this session and down 0.3% since the start of the year.

Even though selling pressure continues to weigh on the broader market and recently knocked it to a fresh session low, consumer staples stocks continue to cling to a modest gain. The sector is currently up 0.3% amid support from Dow component Procter & Gamble (PG 60.92, +0.72), which was upgraded by analysts at Bank of America's Merrill Lynch. DJ30 -83.58 NASDAQ -36.14 SP500 -13.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 704/1.29 bln/1898 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 723/515 mln/2264

12:30 pm : Stocks have retreated to fresh session lows. Weakness remains widespread, but consumer staples stocks continue to cling to a modest gain -- they are currently up 0.3%.

Materials stocks continue to trade as this session's worst performers. They are down 2.4%, collectively. Alcoa (AA 15.77, -1.68) has been a particularly heavy drag on the sector. The metal mining company posted a per-share profit of just one penny for its latest quarter. Though that was an improvement from the loss that it booked one year before, it wasn't as strong as the $0.06 per share that Wall Street had expected for the latest reporting period. DJ30 -67.18 NASDAQ -33.14 SP500 -12.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 724/1.13 bln/1842 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 769/461 mln/2203

12:00 pm : The stock market recently made a downward dip, but the session lows that were set in the early going remain intact.

The move lower comes as pressure picks up against financial stocks, which are now down 1.2%. Diversified banks are among the weakest issues in the bunch; they are down 1.8%. Multiline insurers have fared quite well, though; they are up 1.5% in the wake of a strong earnings update from Hartford Financial (HIG 27.99, +1.82).

Not all insurers have as well as Hartford, however. Shares of Principal Financial (PFG 25.57, -0.22), Prudential (PRU 53.64, +0.15), and Aflac (AFL 51.22, +0.51) are a bit mixed, even though they were upgraded by analysts at Barclays. DJ30 -43.91 NASDAQ -22.70 SP500 -9.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 882/965 mln/1668 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 904/405 mln/2045

11:30 am : The dollar had been flat for most of the morning, but it has since pulled back a bit to trade with a 0.3% loss against a basket of foreign currencies. Despite that move, both stocks and commodities continue to steadily trade with sizable losses.

Stocks have been mired in selling pressure all morning. The decline has the major indices headed for their worst session of the new year.

As for commodities, the CRB Commodity Index is down 1.1%. Oil had been a primary detractor in the CRB, but it has recently pared its losses so that it now trades with a 0.8% loss at $81.85 per barrel. DJ30 -25.69 NASDAQ -17.55 SP500 -6.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 908/813 mln/1604 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 941/346 mln/1967

11:00 am : The major indices continue to trade above their morning lows, but they have yet to make their way to positive territory. Consumer staples remains the only sector to sport a gain; it is up 0.5%.

Support for the consumer staples sector stems from strength in shares of Dow component Procter & Gamble (PG 61.01, +0.81), which were upgraded by analysts at Bank of America's Merrill Lynch. The analysts downgraded shares of Colgate-Palmolive (CL 80.76, -0.39), though. DJ30 -20.71 NASDAQ -14.04 SP500 -5.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 879/672 mln/1589 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 924/290 mln/1952

10:30 am : The stock market opened sharply lower this morning after Alcoa (AA 16.00, -1.45) reported weak earnings results after the close yesterday. However, commodities are not significantly lower as the US Dollar has chopped around the unchanged line in today's trade.

February crude oil has traded in negative territory and after putting in morning lows of $80.80 per barrel, the energy component is back above the $81.50 level at $81.58, down 1.1%.

February natural gas trended steadily lower overnight before hitting session lows of $5.354 per MMBtu an hour before the open of pit trading. After touching those lows, natural gas rallied into positive territory and fresh morning highs of $5.568 per MMBtu. Currently, it's trading at $5.514 per MMBtu, 1% higher.

Precious metals moved into negative territory early this morning, but February gold is back near the flat line at $1153.20 per ounce, up $1.80 while March silver remains in negative territory at $18.605 per ounce, down 0.5%.DJ30 -17.00 NASDAQ -16.14 SP500 -5.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 828/547.6 mln/1590 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 854/241.7 mln/1972

10:00 am : Stocks have bounced off of their opening lows, but they continue to trade with marked losses. Materials stocks and energy stocks continue to trail; they are down 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively.

Large-cap tech is weak for the second straight session. Losses among the likes of Google (GOOG 594.57, -6.54) and Intel (INTC 20.61, -0.34) have left the Nasdaq Composite to trail its counterparts once again. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 is down 0.9%.

Early movers: Trading up -- CRUS +15.9%, SCLN +11.6%, ELX +9.2%, QLGC +8.1%, PEIX +7.9%, HIG +7.8%, DPZ +7.2%, SVU +6.4%, SPPI +6.3%; Trading down -- GAP -21.6%, ATSI -16.7%, MFLX -14.9%, ARB -12.9%, FORM -10%, ERTS -8.9%, AIB -8.9%, IRE -8.1%, PMI -7.6%, NLST -7.5%, AA -7.3%, MYGN -7%

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Staples (+0.2%)
Declining Sectors: Materials (-1.3%), Energy (-1.2%), Tech (-0.8%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.8%), Industrials (-0.6%), Utilities (-0.6%), Financial (-0.5%), Telecom (-0.3%), Health Care (-0.3%)DJ30 -20.03 NASDAQ -16.38 SP500 -6.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 724/337 mln/1629 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 743/163 mln/2022

09:45 am : Broad-based weakness has taken stocks considerably lower in the first few minutes of the session. Stocks are still up more than 2% since the start of the year, though.

Of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500, only consumer staples stocks are in positive territory. The sector currently sports a 0.2% gain.

Losses are steepest among natural resource plays as the materials sector slides to a 1.4% loss and the energy sector falls 1.2%. DJ30 -68.77 NASDAQ -24.06 SP500 -10.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 582/221 mln/1724 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 529/118 mln/2172

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.00. Starting with the latest quarterly results from Alcoa (AA), corporate headlines have picked up considerably to provide participants with plenty of catalysts for trade. Among them, Alcoa missed the consensus earnings estimate, while fellow Dow component Chevron (CVX) stated that it expects fourth quarter earnings to be down from the previous quarter. Medical device maker Stryker (SYK) issued in-line guidance for both fiscal 2009 and fiscal 2010, while Tiffany & Co. (TIF) raised its outlook for fiscal 2010 and Infosys (INFY) posted better-than-expected results for the latest quarter and went on to issue an upside forecast. Hartford Financial (HIG) has also stepped out to announce stronger-than-expected fourth quarter earnings. In terms of economic news, the November trade deficit was a bit deeper than expected. Meanwhile, China's central bank has taken a couple of steps that suggest it wants to tighten monetary policy in order to stem inflation and speculative buying.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.30. U.S. stock futures still look weak, while Europe's major bourses continue to struggle. Germany's DAX is down 1.6% amid broad-based weakness. At the moment, Henkel is the only component in the 30-member index that is in positive ground. In France, the CAC is off by 1.2%. Its declining issues outnumber its advancers by 7-to-1. Total (TOT) is a primary laggard at the moment. In Britain, the FTSE has shed 1.1% amid weakness in natural resource plays. In Asia, the Shanghai Composite Index spiked 1.9%, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index mustered a 0.3% gain. Japan's Nikkei gained 0.7% after it reopened from a closed session on Monday. However, Japan Airlines continues to suffer; its shares were nearly halved amid ongoing bankruptcy concerns. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng slipped 0.4%. Banks were particularly weak, though. China's central bank on Tuesday raised the auction yield on its one-year bills by a bigger-than-expected 8.29 basis points in another signal that it is tightening up monetary policy. After the close, China's central bank said reserve requirements will increase by 50 basis points from Jan. 18.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.50. Neither stock futures nor the dollar has shown much of a reaction to the November trade balance data, which was released at 8:30 AM ET. The consensus had called for a deficit of $34.6 billion, but the actual deficit was a bit deeper at $36.4 billion. The deficit for October was revised modestly lower to a $33.2 billion deficit.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.80. Stock futures are currently weak in the wake of an earnings miss from Dow component Alcoa (AA), which unofficially began earnings season last evening with its latest quarterly results. Analysts, on average, had expected the company to bring in $0.06 per share, but Alcoa earned a mere $0.01 per share, instead. Shares of the metal and mining outfit are down 6% to $16.40 each ahead of the opening bell. Weakness among overseas markets hasn't served well the tone of trade this morning either. All three of Europe's major bourses are down by at least 1%, though mixed results came out of Asia. Meanwhile, the dollar has steadied after it slumped in the previous session so that it now trades flat against competing currencies. However, oil prices have come under stiff pressure so that crude contracts currently trade 1.4% lower at $81.40 per barrel.

06:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.20

06:20 am : Nikkei...10879.14...+80.80...+0.80%. Hang Seng...22326.64...-84.90...-0.40%.

06:20 am : FTSE...5492.02...-46.00...-0.80%. DAX...5990.84...-49.90...-0.80%.

M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Go Back To TheStrategyLab.com Homepage


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