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 Post subject: January 11th Monday 2010 Emini ES ($ES_F) points -8.50
PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 2:46 am 
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Written By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, although this journal contains advertisements involving my trade methods, it does contain useful trading tips a few times per week. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips that can improve your trading and understand that profitable trading involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader that's the same as my user name on twitter.

Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=70&t=421.

Quote:
Today's results are 5 wins : 8 losses. Today was a losing trading day (I now average about 2 losing trading days per month). It's the same reason as usual...I miss the best price action of the trading day between 0930am 1000am est and this time it was connection problems as shown in the above #FuturesTrades log as it was occurring. At first I though it was an ISP connection problems and while investigating between 0930am - 1000am est I realized my ISP was ok but that the problem was isolated to mIRC software only. However, I still made the choice to trade after missing that critical price action and it wasn't easy as usual trading in the low volatility price areas. Tomorrow I switch from Emini ES to the Emini TF on the ICE exchange because lately TF has better price action during the low volatility price ranges. This change should increase my profit level especially when trading in the low volatility price areas. By the way, you often will see me mention the word volatility...it's crucial in my trading and to understanding the markets. I'm not interested in if volatility is high or low. Instead, I'm interested in if volatility is changing as in supply/demand when it's high or low. Trading Tip: Don't get married to any particular trading instrument...your obligation is to your income and not to the trading instrument.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, if you're interested in having free access to one of my profitable trade strategies along with earning extra income with little effort...join my referral program @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ReferralProgram.htm

My Trading Performance: -8.50 Emini ES ($ES_F) points

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Stocks Churn As Results Starts To Pour In
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
January 11, 2010: 6:15 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks seesawed Monday as investors eyed a weak dollar, higher commodity prices and a selloff in technology shares ahead of the start of the quarterly reporting period, which began after the closing bell with Alcoa.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 46 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 index (SPX) added 2 points, or 0.2%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 5 points, or 0.2%.

The fourth-quarter reporting period got underway Monday after the close, when Dow component Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) issued its results.

The aluminum maker reported a profit of 1 cent per share, versus a loss of 28 cents per share a year ago. Analysts expected the company to have earned 6 cents a share, according to earnings tracker Thomson Reuters. Revenue fell less than expected.

Stocks gained Friday as a tech rally helped investors look past a surprisingly weak jobs report, leaving all three major indexes at 15-month highs. After that run, stocks struggled Monday.

"I think the market is on hold, waiting for the fourth-quarter reporting period to start," said Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist at RidgeWorth Investments.

"From a statistical standpoint it's supposed to be a phenomenal quarter, but companies are stepping over a very low bar," Gayle said. "The focus is going to be on earnings guidance for later in 2010."

Company results: In addition to Alcoa, Dow components Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) report results later this week.

S&P 500 earnings are expected to have jumped 213% in the fourth quarter of 2009, thanks to easy comparisons to the fourth-quarter of 2008, the worst quarter in Thomson's history. A substantial improvement in financial sector results is expected to fuel the gains.
Bracing for results

Company news: Heineken (HINKY) said Monday that it will buy the beer operations of Mexico's Femsa for about $7.6 billion, including key export brands Dos Equis, Tecate and Sol.

McMoRan (MMR) and Energy XXI (EXXI) shares jumped after the energy companies announced a key discovery at one of their oil wells in the Gulf of Mexico.

Tech decliners included Dow components IBM (IBM, Fortune 500) and Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500). Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500), Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, Fortune 500) also slid.

Dow gainers included Coca-Cola (KO, Fortune 500), Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500), Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and United Technologies (UTX, Fortune 500).
0:00 /2:45U.S. Autos seek smoother ride in 2010

World markets: Asian markets hit 17-month highs after a report showed China's exports jumped 17.7% in December versus a year ago, raising hopes about the nation's economic outlook.

European markets were mixed.

Commodities and the dollar: The dollar tumbled versus the euro and the yen.

Dollar-traded gold inched higher. COMEX gold for February delivery rose $13.20 to settle at $1,151.40 an ounce. Gold closed at an all-time high of $1,218.30 an ounce last month.

U.S. light crude oil for February delivery fell 47 cents to settle at $82.28 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.82% from 3.83% late Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Market breadth was mixed. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by three to two on volume of 970 million shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers by a narrow margin on volume of 2.08 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Despite lackluster and listless action, stocks were able to advance modestly so that the S&P 500 extended its streak of gains to six straight sessions.

Stocks spent the majority of the session in a sideways drift. Buyers seemed absent, while downside moves were short and shallow due to technical support.

Action throughout the afternoon contrasted with the early going in that stocks had looked like they would make their way broadly higher during the opening minutes. The early move was led by natural resource plays like materials stocks and energy stocks. Both groups were up nearly 1% early on.

Strength among natural resource stocks stemmed from higher commodity prices, which were spurred by a weaker dollar after global participants learned that during December China saw its first increase in exports in more than one year. Though the buck spent the session mired in weakness and logged a 0.6% loss against competing currencies, commodity prices pulled back and left the CRB Commodity Index to lose 0.5%. Materials stocks closed with a 0.2% loss, while energy stocks eked out a 0.1% gain.

Metal mining giant and Dow component Alcoa (AA 17.45, +0.43) showed strength throughout the session, however. Its gains came ahead of its latest quarterly report and teamed up with other blue chips to help the Dow Jones Industrial Average outperform the other headline indices.

The Nasdaq Composite was the only headline index that failed to muster a gain this session. It lagged its counterparts for virtually the entire session, largely as a result of renewed weakness among large-cap tech.

News flow was slow and participants were without many trading cues this session, but the number of headlines aren't expected to pick up for another few days. Alcoa's report this evening marks the unofficial start to earnings season, but announcements don't begin in earnest until next week. Economic data will also remain sparse for a few more days, but Thursday's retail sales report and weekly jobless claims figures will be met with increased interest.

Advancing Sectors: Industrials (+1.2%), Utilities (+1.1%), Health Care (+0.4%), Consumer Staples (+0.4%), Energy (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Tech (-0.4%), Materials (-0.2%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.1%)
Unchanged: Telecom, FinancialsDJ30 +45.80 NASDAQ -4.76 NQ100 -0.3% R2K -0.1% SP400 -0.1% SP500 +2.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1307/2.09 bln/1367 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1808/967 mln/1220

3:30 pm : The dollar index extended Friday's losses this session. After today's 0.6% decline, the dollar index is down 1.5% since levels seen just before the worse-than-expected Nonfarm payrolls report Friday morning. Despite the dollar's decline, the CRB Commodity Index was down slightly for the session, hampered by steep losses in natural gas and orange juice futures.

After recently hitting a two-year high, March orange juice closed down 12.6% at $1.32 per pound as damages to the harvest from the cold weather now appear to be less severe than initially expected.

Natural gas futures sold off in dramatic fashion this morning. Weather forecasts are now calling for more mild temperatures; as opposed to the extreme cold gas-consuming regions have seen of late. February natural gas closed down 5.2% at $5.45 per MMBtu.

Crude oil futures fell from levels not seen since October 2008 this session. After rising about 18% in less than one month and hitting $83.95 per barrel overnight, February crude oil closed the session down 0.3% at $82.52 per barrel.

Precious metals closed higher in the face of the weak dollar. Both gold and silver futures reached session highs early in the session and trended mildly lower thereafter. February gold closed 1.1% higher at $1151.40 per ounce and March silver closed 1.2% higher at $18.70 per ounce.DJ30 +46.48 NASDAQ -6.10 SP500 +2.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1306/1.74 bln/1373 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1767/730 mln/1255

3:00 pm : The S&P 500 remains flat. Meanwhile, the Dow has managed to make a modest move to a fresh afternoon high, but the Nasdaq's loss remains steady.

Defensive-oriented utilities stocks have managed to drum up support. The sector is currently up 1.1% as electric utilities like Duke Energy (DUK 17.02, +0.18) and American Electric (AEP 36.01, +0.40) advance to handsome gains. DJ30 +28.49 NASDAQ -10.94 SP500 -0.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1233/1.58 bln/1421 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1672/663 mln/1348

2:30 pm : Stocks continue to drift sideways amid a lack of leadership. A lack of catalysts has also kept stocks stuck in a narrow range.

In the event that stocks fail to find support, the stock market could finish lower for the first time in six sessions. The strong streak of gains has the S&P 500 up more than 2.5% since the start of 2010.DJ30 +23.05 NASDAQ -11.45 SP500 -0.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1190/1.49 bln/1457 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1632/618 mln/1386

2:00 pm : This session's trade remains both listless and lackluster. In turn, the stock market continues to move sideways in mixed action.

The slow, sideways crawl has left Treasuries to also trade in a rather narrow range. Treasuries showed little reaction to news that a $10 billion auction of 10-year TIPS required a yield of 1.43% and was met with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.65, which is slightly above the more recent average of 2.59. The benchmark 10-year Note is currently up just two ticks, which has kept its yield just above 3.8%. DJ30 +22.98 NASDAQ -10.78 SP500 -0.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1175/1.38 mln/1452 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1626/567 mln/1370

1:30 pm : The Dow continues to cling to a fractional gain, though the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 are still stuck in negative territory. Blue chips are currently led by Caterpillar (CAT 63.77, +3.43) and Chevron (CVX 80.77, +1.30), which was actually upgraded by analysts at Credit Suisse.

Credit Suisse's analysts also upgraded other international energy players, including Britain's BP PLC (BP 61.82, +1.82) and Brazil's Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR 47.99, -0.47). DJ30 +9.98 NASDAQ -1.66 SP500 -1.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1182/1.28 bln/1427 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1584/529 mln/1386

1:00 pm : A lack of news flow and other catalysts have left stocks to spend most of the session in a sideways slog.

Stocks opened in higher ground amid strength in natural resource plays, thanks to a weaker dollar, which continues to trade near session lows with a 0.6% loss versus foreign currencies. The dollar's drop came as global participants sought plays that would benefit from a recovery trade after it had been learned that China's exports during December increased for the first time in more than one year.

Though participants favored energy stocks and materials stocks in the early going, their appetite quickly tightened. That has caused natural resource plays to reverse and leave the energy sector with a 0.5% loss and the materials sector with a 0.6% loss.

Despite the reversal by natural resource plays, metal mining outfit and Dow component Alcoa (AA 17.20, +0.18) continues to sport a solid gain. Support for the stock comes ahead of the company's latest quarterly results, which are scheduled to be announced after the closing bell.

Renewed pressure against large-cap tech has taken the tech sector to a 0.8% loss. Tech has been among the worst performers this session and they have been particularly troublesome for the Nasdaq, which has lagged the other headline indices for the entire session.

At the moment, health care (+0.5%), industrials (+0.7%), and utilities stocks (+0.6%) make up the only sectors to trade in higher ground. Support for them has been steady this session.

Though there are only a few advancing issues, weakness has been relatively modest. That's partly owed to technical support, which has helped limit the stock market's downside moves.DJ30 +11.79 NASDAQ -11.58 SP500 -1.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1180/1.19 bln/1413 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1562/490 mln/1381

12:30 pm : The stock market is back to trading along the neutral line. Underlying action remains mixed.

Shares of broadcasting companies are particularly polarized. CBS Corp (CBS 14.00, -0.15) and DirecTV (DTV 33.80, -0.32) are both down roughly 1%, while shares of Time Warner Cable (TWC 42.09, +0.58) are up solidly amid positive mention by Barron's. Barron's also published positive commentary on communications company Hughes Communications (HUGH 27.30, +2.03).DJ30 +18.67 NASDAQ -7.37 SP500 -0.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1245/1.09 bln/1362 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1633/445 mln/1289

12:00 pm : Materials stocks started the session with strength, but they have since buckled under selling pressure. The sector is now down to a 0.3% loss after it was up nearly 1% in the early going.

The pullback by materials stocks comes as commodity prices come under pressure, even though the U.S. dollar is still down 0.7% against a basket of foreign currencies. Nonetheless, the CRB Commodity Index is down to a 0.2% loss.

Oil prices have been particularly weak in recent action. Oil prices had been well above $83 per barrel in early pit trade, but the commodity has since reversed so that it trades with a 0.2% loss at $82.60 per barrel. The reversal has undercut the energy sector, which now trades with a 0.1% loss. DJ30 +13.91 NASDAQ -8.34 SP500 -0.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1228/977 mln/1333 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1637/400 mln/1277

11:30 am : Tech stocks have weighed on the Nasdaq Composite all morning, but the sector's weakness only recently became too much for the broader S&P 500. Tech, which makes up the largest sector in the S&P 500 by market weight, is now down 0.9%. Its weakness and its weight have the broader market near session lows.

Tech's loss is double that of the next worst performing sector, which is made up of consumer discretionary stocks. The consumer discretionary sector is currently down 0.4%, due largely to weakness among retailers, which are down 1.2% as department stores like Macy's (M 16.47, -0.45) become mired in weakness. DJ30 -0.15 NASDAQ -11.41 SP500 -1.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1152/875 mln/1409 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1558/356 mln/1336

11:00 am : Technical support helped the stock market slow its morning slide. However, stocks haven't exactly rebounded -- the broad-based S&P 500 is back to a fractional gain.

Renewed selling pressure against tech stocks has taken the tech sector to a 0.6% loss. Weakness among tech issues has also led the Nasdsaq Composite into the red so that it lags its counterparts.

Large-cap issues are primary laggards in the tech space. As such, Microsoft (MSFT 30.34, -0.32), Apple (AAPL 210.52, -1.46), and Google (GOOG 597.86, -4.16) have done the most damage thus far. DJ30 +6.80 NASDAQ -8.36 SP500 +0.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1210/725 mln/1310 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1642/300 mln/1195

10:30 am : Weakness in the US Dollar Index has provided price support for most of the commodity complex in today's session. Precious metals are holding gains, while the energy markets are mixed.

Feb crude oil lost ~$0.70 in gains at the open of pit trading and after a failed attempt to recover those losses, crude pushed lower again to fresh morning lows of $82.85 per barrel ~20 minutes ago. Currently, crude is 0.6% higher at $83.22 per barrel.

Feb natural gas has traded in negative territory all session and hit morning lows of $5.514 per MMBtu right after pit trading began. The energy component has since regained part of its losses, but remains ~3.2% lower at $5.566 per MMBtu.

Precious metals are outperforming the energy markets today and have traded in the black during today's session so far. Feb gold and March silver hit morning highs of $1163.00 per ounce and $18.925 per ounce, respectively, and are currently trading just under this morning's highs. Gold is 1.4% higher at $1154.70 per ounce, while silver is 1.5% higher at $18.755 per ounce.DJ30 -2.57 NASDAQ -8.62 SP500 +0.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1145/552.5 mln/1327 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1626/231.3 mln/1163

10:00 am : Stocks continue to slip modestly from their opening levels. That has made for some rather mixed action in the broader market.

Natural resource plays continue to fare relatively well as oil stocks cling to a 0.7% gain. Materials stocks have pared their position so that they now trade with a modest 0.4% gain.

Retailers have come under considerable pressure, though. As a group, shares of retailers are down 1.0%. The slide marks an extension of their relative weakness from late last week. DJ30 -4.30 NASDAQ -3.92 SP500 +0.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1259/329 mln/1115 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1631/149 mln/1110

09:45 am : Stocks in the broader market have pared their initial gains so that the major indices now trade just above the neutral line. However, natural resource plays continue to show strength.

As such, energy stocks, as a group, are up a solid 0.3%. Their gains come as oil prices sport a 0.6% gain at $83.30 per barrel.

Meanwhile, materials stocks are up a collective 0.7%. That comes as steel stocks (+0.9%) and diversified metals and mining stocks (+2.0%) extend their gains from the previous week amid signs that the recovery trade remains intact -- specifically the increase in China's exports after a year of declines.

Strength in metals and other basic materials plays also comes in anticipation of the latest results from Alcoa (AA 17.47, +0.45), which is expected to post after the closing bell earnings of $0.06 per share for its latest quarter. That would mark an improvement from the loss that the company posted one year ago. DJ30 +1.89 NASDAQ +1.31 SP500 +1.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1399/221 mln/908 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1783/107 mln/897

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.00. Stock futures have traded with modest strength for the entire morning, thanks largely to a weaker dollar, which comes amid news that during December China's exports increased for their first time in more than one year. The data from China offers encouragement that the global economy continues to improve and that the recovery trade remains intact. That theme, along with the dollar's drop, has also helped commodity prices in early pit trade. However, oil prices have pared their opening gains so that they now trade a more modest 0.4% into the green at $83.10 per barrel. There haven't been many corporate announcements this morning, so overall news flow has lacked. The slow flow comes ahead of earnings season, which gets its unofficial start when Dow component Alcoa (AA) unveils its latest quarterly results after the close.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.80. Stock futures are off of their premarket highs, but they continue to point to a higher start for the session. Commodities prices also remain firmly higher. Gold was last quoted with a 1.7% gain at $1158.70 per ounce, while oil prices have opened pit trade with a 1.1% gain at $83.65 per barrel. The rise in oil prices extends oil's near 5% gain from last week.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.80. Germany's DAX has made its way to a 0.7% gain amid broad-based buying, which has given advancing issues a 6-to-1 advantage over decliners in the German bourse. E.On is a primary leader in the action, while Allianz (AZ) has lagged. In France, the CAC is up 0.7% as energy giant Total (TOT) strengthens amid higher oil prices. The rise in oil prices has also helped BP PLC (BP) lead Britain's FTSE to a 0.5% gain in recent trade. Analysts at Citigroup have given BP additional support by issuing an upgrade on the shares. Banking issues in Britain lag, though; HSBC (HBC), Standard Charter, and Barclays (BCS) are all in the red. Shares of BCS were actually upgraded by analysts at Citigroup. In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng ascended 0.5%. HSBC was a leader there. However, Bank of China and Industrial & Commercial Bank faltered. Meanwhile, mainland China's Shanghai Composite advanced 0.5%. According to reports, China's exports turned upward in December after 13 months of declines; exports climbed nearly 18% from the year earlier. In other economic news, Xinhua reported that China's 2009 fiscal revenue was estimated at 6.85 trillion yuan, which marks an increase of 11.7% over a year earlier. Meanwhile, Reuters reported that China vowed on Sunday not to let foreign speculative investment affect the property market. Japan's Nikkei was closed, but Japanese automaker Honda Motor (HMC) announced that it will increase annual worldwide production by 6%, according to Reuters. Reuters also reported that Japan Airlines is likely to refuse financial aid from American airliners.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.30. There has not been much news flow this morning to guide traders. The quiet comes ahead of earnings season, which gets its unofficial start this evening when Dow component Alcoa (AA) posts its latest quarterly figures. For the time being, though, a sharp 0.7% drop by the Dollar Index has offered support to stock futures. The dollar's drop has also helped prop up commodity futures -- gold futures prices are currently up 1.6% to $1157 per ounce, while oil futures prices are up 1.3% to $83.85 per barrel at the moment.

06:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.00.

06:35 am : Nikkei...Holiday......... Hang Seng...22411.52...+114.80...+0.50%.

06:35 am : FTSE...5567.67...+33.50...+0.60%. DAX...6071.78...+34.30...+0.60%.

M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Go Back To TheStrategyLab.com Homepage


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