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 Post subject: January 8th Friday 2010 Emini ES ($ES_F) points +15.50
PostPosted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 9:10 pm 
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Written By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Today's trades by me were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC and twitter user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip involving WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis) because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=70&t=420. Thus, if you're looking for free information that can improve your trading...consistently read the #FuturesTrades logs (see link above) and do the same for my personal commentaries below because I'll intentionally post an occassional trading tip that will help most traders.

Quote:
Today's results are 3 wins : 1 loss : 1 breakeven. Today was a repeat of the usual price action of 2009. Big gap on the regular session chart via strong overnight price movement on the all session charts. In addition, we got the normal volatility spike from 0930am - 1100am and then the remainder of the trading day is just low volatility tight trading range until another volatility spike late in the trading day. As for my own trading, I was done by 2:05pm est and spent the rest of the trading day doing website work and catching up on some email responses to traders. Trading Tip: There was a key change in supply/demand on the 2min chart between 1538pm - 1540pm est that should be very useful on Monday's trading session if the market doesn't gap too far above or below that price area.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their efforts in trade signals while ignoring the impact on their trading results via market experience, discipline, money management, team collaboration, proper trading enviornment (home or office), market psychology, trader psychology (trading habits/routine and personal lifestyle). If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +15.50 Emini ES ($ES_F) points

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Stocks Stage Late Advance
By Alexandra Twin, senior writerJanuary 8, 2010: 6:44 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A tech rally propelled the Nasdaq and helped the broader market erase losses Friday, as investors took in stride a surprisingly weak jobs report amid other recent signs that the economy appears to be stabilizing.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 11 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 index (SPX) gained 3 points, or 0.3%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 17 points, or 0.7%.

The Dow and S&P 500 ended at 15-month highs and the Nasdaq at a 16-month high to cap off the first trading week of 2010.

Following Monday's big rally, stocks have been mixed to lower all week, with investors showing reluctance to move after the major gains of 2009 and ahead of the jobs report.

Although the economy appeared to turn a corner in the fourth quarter, market participants are looking for further signs of stability before they push stocks a lot higher. In particular, still-high unemployment and sluggish consumer spending remain a worry.

"The big picture is that there are still a scary number of people out of work, particularly when you think about that consumer spending fuels two-thirds of economic growth," said Len Blum, managing director at Westwood Capital.

Blum said that Wall Street is split between those who think the economy has turned a corner and those who think that a double-dip recession remains on the table. He said that the jobs report adds weight to the double-dip theory.

"The majority of the positive indicators we've seen are a result of government stimulus and the inventory restocking," he said. "Whether we see a second leg down or just a mediocre recovery is going to depend on whether there is more stimulus since there isn't anything fundamental to drive things right now."

Jobs: Employers cut 85,000 jobs from their payrolls in December, the Labor Department reported Friday. The figure was a surprise to economists who were expecting no change in payrolls, according to a Briefing.com survey.

On a more positive note, November's report was revised to show a gain of 4,000 jobs versus the initially reported loss of 11,000, breaking a 22-month streak of declines.
0:00 /4:25Diverse, but slow job growth in 2010

The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, held steady at 10%, in line with forecasts.

On the move: Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), Coca-Cola (KO, Fortune 500), Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) were the main drags on the Dow. But losses were offset by strength in tech components IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500), Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500).

Citigroup cut its fourth-quarter earnings forecasts on Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), saying that fixed-income trading revenues fell in the fourth quarter and are set to fall an additional 15% to 20% in 2010. The companies are also likely to see weaker revenues from their commodity and currency units.

UPS (UPS, Fortune 500) announced it was cutting 1,800 jobs as part of a restructuring and that it expects fourth-quarter earnings to top expectations. Shares gained just short of 5%.

Market breadth was mixed. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers three to two on volume of 995 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners eight to five on volume of 2.15 billion shares.

Economy: A report released after the start of trading showed wholesale inventories rose 1.5% in November after rising 0.6% in October. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought inventories would fall 0.3%.

Another report release in the afternoon showed consumer borrowing fell by $17.5 billion in November versus the $5 billion expected. Borrowing fell by $3.5 billion in the previous month.

World markets: Asian markets ended higher. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 gained 0.1%, France's CAC 40 rose 0.5% and the German DAX gained 0.3%.

Commodities and the dollar: The dollar tumbled versus the euro and the yen.

Dollar-traded gold inched higher. COMEX gold for February delivery rose $5.20 to $1,138.90 an ounce. Gold closed at an all-time high of $1,218.30 an ounce last month.

U.S. light crude oil for February delivery fell 9 cents to settle at $82.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, further retreating from 15-month highs hit earlier in the week.

Bonds: Treasury prices slipped, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 3.83% from 3.82% late Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : The latest monthly payrolls report and a raft of analyst rating revisions made up for a lack of corporate headlines this session. Though the general reaction to those reports was negative, stocks still managed to make their way higher.

The early tone to trade was negative as participants pressured stocks upon learning that December nonfarm payrolls dropped by 85,000, which took many by surprise since the consensus called for no change to payrolls. However, nonfarm payrolls for November were revised upward to show an increase of 4,000 jobs. That marked the first payroll increase in two years and helped keep the unemployment rate at 10.0%, which was expected.

Financials caught the brunt of the early selling effort and trailed for most of the session, but trimmed their losses to finish 0.5% in the red. News that analysts at Citigroup cut their estimates for Goldman Sachs (GS 174.31, -3.36), Morgan Stanley (MS 32.25, -0.67), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 44.68, -0.11) triggered some profit taking after the financial sector had climbed 6.4% during the previous four sessions. Financials still netted a weekly gain of nearly 6%.

Analysts at JP Morgan hit Coca-Cola (KO 55.15, -1.04), Colgate-Palmolive (CL 81.51, -1.49), and Alberto-Culver (ACV 29.14, -0.55) with downgrades, which weighed on the defensive-oriented consumer staples sector and sent it to a 0.5% loss.

Retailers had to contend with some downgrades, too, but they were able to cut their loss for the session to 0.1%. Still, Macy's (M 16.92, -0.57) wasn't so fortunate; news of a downgrade by analysts at Goldman Sachs sent the company's shares sharply lower, which reversed the gains that came when the company increased its earnings outlook in the previous session.

Tech stocks bounced back from a recent fit of weakness. Tech was the best performing sector in 2009, booking a 60% annual gain, but it has lagged in the new year. However, renewed support for large-cap issues helped drive the sector to a 0.8% gain this session. They also helped the Nasdaq outperform its counterparts.

Schnitzer Steel (SCHN 55.95, +3.26) was one of the few companies that was out with its latest quarterly results since the previous session's close. The company brought in better-than-expected earnings of $0.23 per share for its latest quarter. That helped steel stocks climb 4.3% this session and 12.7% for the week.

Strength among steel stocks combined with gains from other raw materials stocks, thanks partly to a 0.6% drop by the dollar, to drive the materials sector to a 1.0% gain.

Industrial stocks made up this session's best performing sector. Their 1.5% advance added to the 1.3% gain that they booked in the previous outing. Despite the move, the sector lacked the influence to make it a legitimate leader for the broader market.

Still, the stocks were able to catch a late bid that helped the broader market break free from an afternoon of sideways chop. The support helped stocks finish higher for the fifth straight session and gave the stock market a weekly gain of 2.7%, which marks its best weekly performance in two months.

Advancing Sectors: Industrials (+1.5%), Materials (+1.0%), Tech (+0.8%), Energy (+0.5%), Health Care (+0.3%)
Declining Sectors: Financials (-0.5%), Consumer Staples (-0.5%), Telecom (-0.5%), Utilities (-0.1%)
Unchanged: Consumer DiscretionaryDJ30 +11.33 NASDAQ +17.12 NQ100 +0.9% R2K +0.4% SP400 +0.6% SP500 +3.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1666/2.16 bln/993 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1840/994 mln/1174

3:30 pm : Stocks are trading near the high end of the session's range. The materials sector is performing well, currently up 0.8%, thanks to a weak dollar.

Precious metals were trading lower this morning as the dollar index was higher. However, a worse-than-expected nonfarm payrolls number resulted in a significant sell-off in the dollar. Gold and silver futures soared. Although the dollar index attempted to pare losses, it ended the session 0.5% lower, allowing gold and silver futures to end in positive territory. February gold finished 0.5% higher at $1139.90 per ounce and March silver finished 0.7% higher at $18.47 per ounce.

Natural gas futures opened the pit trade moderately lower and traded relatively flat for most of the session. February natural gas closed down 1.2% at $5.74 per contract.

Crude oil futures finished marginally higher at $82.75 per barrel. After opening the pit trade lower, February crude oil spiked mid-session as the dollar weakened. After reaching the $83.48 per barrel mark, the February contract sold off and dipped into negative territory before closing slightly higher.

Orange juice futures closed limit-up for the third time this week on concerns that unseasonably cold weather will hurt this year's harvest. The March orange juice futures closed 7.1% higher at $1.512 per pound. DJ30 -26.30 NASDAQ +14.02 SP500 -0.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1523/1.79 bln/1133 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1635/730 mln/1370

3:00 pm : Action this afternoon remains subdued as the three major indices continue to move sideways. The horizontal chop has lasted for several hours straight.

Amid the mixed action of the broader market, Treasuries have had a rather quiet session. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is up only four ticks so that its yield remains above 3.8%. DJ30 -32.58 NASDAQ +11.73 SP500 -1.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1436/1.65 bln/1211 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1541/672 mln/1456

2:30 pm : The major indices continue to move sideways in range-bound trade. The lack of vertical movement has made for a rather quiet afternoon.

Still, many participants are eager to see whether the stock market can find some late support, as it did in recent sessions, to propel it to a fifth straight gain. The current streak of gains has stocks up more than 2% for the week. DJ30 -28.50 NASDAQ +11.95 SP500 -1.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1456/1.55 bln/1172 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1541/633 mln/1443

2:00 pm : The S&P 500 recently poked into positive territory, but its stay there was short lived. It is now back to trading with a fractional loss.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq has made its way to a nice gain. Large-cap tech plays Microsoft (MSFT 30.78, +0.33), Google (GOOG 601.71, +7.61), and Oracle (ORCL 24.65, +0.27) continue to provide leadership to the bunch after they had lagged in the past couple of sessions. Those underperformances followed a strong year for tech stocks; tech finished 2009 with a 60% gain, the best of any sector. DJ30 -31.44 NASDAQ +11.66 SP500 -1.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1468/1.43 bln/1149 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1554/588 mln/1433

1:30 pm : The stock market recently came in contact with the neutral line, but was rebuffed. It hasn't buckled, though. Instead, it continues to trade with a fractional loss.

Financials continue to weigh on the broader market. The sector remains near its session low with a 1.1% loss. Meanwhile, industrials trade with a 1.1% gain, but they haven't the market weight to provide legitimate leadership to the broader market. DJ30 -21.62 NASDAQ +11.55 SP500 -0.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1478/1.29 bln/1120 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1541/537 mln/1423

1:00 pm : Disappointing jobs data dropped stocks for an early loss, but a few pockets of relative strength have helped the stock market make its way back toward the neutral line.

Nonfarm payrolls for December fell by 85,000, which took many by surprise since the consensus called for no change to payrolls. The unemployment rate still stands at 10.0%, as expected, though. Boston Fed President Rosengren offered the reminder that a recovery in the jobs market will be a slow process.

The report stimulated an early selling effort against equities. Meanwhile, the dollar was whipsawed amid concern for the broader economy's health and possible implications for monetary policy. The greenback is currently down 0.5% against a basket of foreign currencies.

Pressure against the broader market has since eased, but steel stocks have spent the entire session displaying continued strength. The group is currently up 2.9% amid better-than-expected earnings from Schnitzer Steel (SCHN 55.92, +3.23).

Industrial stocks have extended their strong gains from the previous session, too. They continue to be led by General Electric (GE 16.52, +0.28).

Financials have been unable to build on their recent gains, though. The sector has fallen to a 1.0% loss amid weakness in Goldman Sachs (GS 175.41, -2.26), Morgan Stanley (MS 32.22, -0.70), and JP Morgan (JPM 44.32, -0.47), which all had their estimates cut by analysts at Citigroup.

Retailers have also struggled after logging a strong performance in the previous session. As a group, they are currently down 0.3% after several brokerage firms issued downgrades on the likes of Macy's (M 16.98, -0.51) and TJX Companies (TJX 38.39, -0.67). DJ30 -26.38 NASDAQ +9.85 SP500 -1.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1428/1.19 bln/1150 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1483/499 mln/1462

12:30 pm : Stocks are moving sideways in a rather narrow range. Action within that range has been choppy, though.

The range-bound trade has left the stock market's underlying sectors to trade in mixed fashion -- they are currently split evenly between advancers and decliners.

Of the advancing sectors, the tech sector has made its way to a 0.3% gain after it lagged during the past couple of sessions. The gain comes largely as a result of renewed strength in large-cap tech issues, which have also helped the Nasdaq Composite put together a nice gain. DJ30 -24.04 NASDAQ +8.44 SP500 -0.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1422/1.10 bln/1135 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1491/463 mln/1446

12:00 pm : Steel stocks look strong yet again. The group is up 2.9% this session and up more than 11% for the week.

Steel's latest display of strength stems from better-than-expected earnings from Schnitzer Steel (SCHN 56.07, +3.38), which earned $0.23 per share for its latest fiscal quarter. The company's top line was a bit light, though.

Still, the strength among steel stocks has helped lift the materials sector to a 0.3% gain. Though that move is modest, it is still better than what the broader market currently displays. DJ30 -20.11 NASDAQ +8.22 SP500 -0.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1387/961 mln/1160 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1394/409 mln/1517

11:30 am : Financials have been among the best performers in the first few sessions of 2010. That has their shares already up nearly 7% in the new year. However, the sector has struggled a bit this session as it slips to a 0.7% loss.

The financial sector's weakness stems largely from losses among shares of investment banks and brokerages, which are down a 1.0% collectively. That drop comes after analysts at Citigroup cut their estimates for Goldman Sachs (GS 175.78, -1.89), Morgan Stanley (MS 32.69, -0.23), and JP Morgan (JPM 44.55, -0.24).

DJ30 -23.66 NASDAQ +7.99 SP500 -0.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1383/844 mln/1119 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1399/355 mln/1480

11:00 am : Shares of retailers are under pressure after a strong showing in the previous session. The group had climbed 0.8% in the previous session, but has seen that gain completely erased as it slides to a 0.9% loss in current action.

The previous session's advance came with help from some strong same-store sales results and a couple of increased earnings forecasts, but several analysts have since stepped out to issue downgrades. Macy's (M 16.98, -0.51) is among the hardest hit names this morning; it was downgraded by analysts at Goldman Sachs. TJX Companies (TJX 38.14, -0.92) is also under a considerable bout of pressure amid a downgrade by analysts from Oppenheimer. DJ30 -25.17 NASDAQ +5.46 SP500 -1.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1322/702 mln/1128 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1306/299 mln/1543

10:35 am : The US Dollar Index just pushed back into positive territory in the last 25 minutes, which created selling pressure on the precious metals group. February gold and March silver spiked into positive territory this morning following the jobs data, but both precious metals have since pulled back, pushing gold into the red and silver back near the flat line. Gold is now 0.5% lower at $1127.70 per ounce, while silver is $0.01 higher $18.36 per ounce.

February crude oil traded in negative territory for almost the entire session. Crude put in lows of $81.80 per barrel 10 minutes after pit trading began and is currently 0.5% lower at $82.27 per barrel. February natural gas fell into negative territory overnight, hitting lows of $5.621 per MMBtu around the same time crude did this morning. Natural gas has recovered around half of its losses this morning and is currently 2.2% lower at $5.68 per MMBtu.DJ30 -24.49 NASDAQ +7.4 SP500 -0.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1267/541.5 mln/1109 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1276/233.8 mln/1529

10:00 am : Stocks have made a sharp upswing that has put the Nasdaq into positive ground and trimmed losses in the Dow and S&P 500. The move began just minutes before the release of the latest wholesale inventory figures, which showed a surprise 1.5% increase for November (the consenus had called for a 0.3% decline).

Meanwhile, the dollar has also improved its position. It had swung from a modest gain to a loss of more than 0.5% with the release of a worse-than-expected monthly payrolls report, but it has since rebounded so that it now trades with a loss of less than 0.1%. DJ30 -20.41 NASDAQ +4.25 SP500 -0.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1201/346 mln/1079 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1208/165 mln/1509

09:45 am : The stock market is down with a modest loss in the early going. However, weakness is rather widespread as nine of the stock market's 10 major sectors trade in the red.

Industrial stocks make up the only sector that has managed to make a move into positive ground. The sector is currently up 0.2%, which extends its week-to-date gain to 3.7%. General Electric (GE 16.31, +0.06) continues to trade as a leader in the group, though its opening gains have been trimmed. DJ30 -39.45 NASDAQ -6.89 SP500 -4.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 898/183 mln/1285 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 911/105 mln/1734

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.30. An unexpected drop in monthly nonfarm payrolls has sent stock futures lower, such that the major indices look like they will start the session in negative territory. The data has also pressured the greenback, but since participants have been fixated on the downbeat data the dollar's drop hasn't done the broader market much good.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.00. U.S. stock futures continue to trade with weakness in the wake of some disappointing monthly payroll numbers. Europe's major bourses have also retreated in the wake of the data, unhelped by news that unemployment in the euro zone hit 10% for the first time in the history of the euro currency, according to reports. The EuroStoxx is down 0.2% and the FTSE is currently down 0.5%. Some banks and miners have gained, though. Barclays (BCS) has been helped by an upgrade from analysts at UBS. In Germany, the DAX is down 0.6% at the moment, though Deutsche Bank (DB) has shown strength, thanks partly to an upgrade from analysts at UBS. Its shares are at their highest level since October. In France, the CAC is currently off by 0.2%. Banks are also limiting losses there. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.6%, but Japan's Nikkei climbed 1.1% to hit a 15-month high. Carmakers were boosted with help from a weaker yen. However, the yen had actually pared losses from a four-month low against the dollar after Japan's Prime Minister Hatoyama said rapid moves in the currency market were "not good." Japan Airlines continued to flounder amid bankruptcy worries. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng eked out a 0.1% gain, but that was good enough to erase early losses. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite also closed just 0.1% higher.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.80. Both stock futures and the dollar have pulled back as a result of some disappointing monthly payroll figures. Specifically, nonfarm payrolls for December decreased by 85,000, which is worse than the flat reading that had been expected. However, nonfarm payrolls for November were revised upward to reflect an increase of 4,000 jobs -- that marked the first increase in two years. The unemployment rate still stands at 10.0%, as expected. Average weekly hours worked also went unchanged at 33.2, as expected.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.30. The dollar has modestly extended its gain from the previous session, but stock futures remain flat. The tepid tone among premarket traders precedes the official December payrolls report, which is due at the bottom of the hour. Economists, on average, expect nonfarm payrolls to be flat for the month and that the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 10.0%. Wholesale inventory data for November follows at 10:00 AM ET, then November consumer credit at 2:00 PM ET, but for broader market concern those reports are secondary to the jobs report.

06:36 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.00.

06:36 am : Nikkei...10798.32...+116.70...+1.10%. Hang Seng...22296.75...+27.30...+0.10%.

06:36 am : FTSE...5529.10...+2.40...0.00. DAX...6041.05...+21.70...+0.40%.

M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
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