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 Post subject: January 7th Thursday 2010 Emini ES ($ES_F) points +25.75
PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2010 5:08 pm 
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Written By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip involving WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis) because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=70&t=419. Thus, if you're looking for free information that can improve your trading...consistently read the #FuturesTrades logs (see link above) and do the same for my commentaries below because I'll intentionally post an occassional trading tip that will help most traders.

Quote:
Today's results are 2 wins : 2 losses : 1 breakeven. Volatility returned today or at least for one trading day as expected (see yesterday's commentaries) along with producing some nice directional price movement to setup some good trades. Although I took a long break from trading during the mid-day trading and the late afternoon trading session...I was able to exploit the time when I was trading. Price action out of the gate ran into a WRB S/R Zone (resistance) in the 1132 area and again around 1410pm est (support). Was able to exploit both and that's all I needed for the day to reach my profit target goal. Trading Tip: We got to pay attention to contraction volatility in between two volatility spike areas especially if that contraction occurs within a prior WRB S/R Zone...it's a great time to look for trade signals and increases the reliability of your trade signals.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their efforts in trade signals while ignoring the impact on their trading results via market experience, discipline, money management, team collaboration, proper trading enviornment (home or office), market psychology, trader psychology (trading habits/routine and personal lifestyle). If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +25.75 Emini ES ($ES_F) points

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Blue Chips Gain Ahead of Jobs Report
By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
January 7, 2010: 6:15 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A rally in financial shares and signs of improvement in the retail sector gave the blue chips a boost Thursday, but the broader market dragged on jitters ahead of Friday's big government jobs report.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 33 points, or 0.3%. Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), General Electric (GE, Fortune 500) and the bank stocks led the advance.

The S&P 500 index (SPX) added nearly 5 points, or 0.4%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) ended just below unchanged.

Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) and Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) were among the big financial names making strides. The KBW Bank (BKX) index jumped more than 4%.

Select homebuilders and retailers rose too. But the tech sector was under pressure, dragging on the Nasdaq.

Stocks struggled Wednesday as weakness in tech and telecom vied with signs of stabilization in the job market and service sector of the economy. The labor market was again in focus Thursday as investors eyed the weekly jobless claims and geared up for Friday's big government jobs report.

Since rallying Monday, stocks have been mixed to lower. Market participants remain cautious ahead of the next batch of earnings and economic news as well as holding back in the wake of a big 2009. Last year, the S&P 500 gained 23%, the Dow industrials added 19% and the Nasdaq added 44%.

Analysts expect 2010 to continue the uptrend, but at a much milder pace.

"Right now things are shaping up to be pretty decent for 2010," said Dave Hinnenkamp, CEO at KDV Wealth Management. "Unemployment is going to be stubborn, but we'll see good earnings growth, especially in the first half and that will help stocks."

Investors are looking for signs that the economic recovery that began in the fourth quarter is sustainable, with unemployment and consumer spending front-and-center.

Jobs: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment rose to 434,000 last week from 433,000 the previous week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought it would rise to 439,000, on average.

Continuing claims, a measure of Americans who have been receiving benefits for a week or more, fell to 4,802,000 from 4,981,000 the previous week. Economists thought it would ease to 4,975,000.

On Friday, the government is expected to report that employers cut 35,000 from their payrolls after cutting 11,000 in the previous month. The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, is expected to hold steady at 10%.

Retail: Late-season holiday shoppers were a boon to the nation's chain stores, boosting December sales by 2.9%, a year after sales slumped 3.6% at the height of the recession.

Discounters such as Costco (COST, Fortune 500) fared particularly well. The company said sales at stores open a year or more, a retail metric known as same-store sales, rose 9% in December versus forecasts for a rise of 7.9%.

Target (TGT, Fortune 500) said sales rose 1.8%, versus forecasts for a rise of 0.2%. The company also said fourth-quarter earnings should meet or top analysts' forecasts of $1.11 per share.
0:00 /1:582010: Jobs in the danger zone

World markets: Asian markets ended higher. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 rose 0.1%, France's CAC 40 was little changed and the German DAX lost 0.4%.

Commodities and the dollar: The dollar gained versus the euro and the yen.

The stronger dollar pressured dollar-traded commodities. COMEX gold for February delivery lost $2.80 to settle at $1,133.70 an ounce. Gold closed at an all-time high of $1,218.30 an ounce last month.

U.S. light crude oil for February delivery fell 63 cents to settle at $82.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after ending the previous session at $83.18, the highest close since October 2008.

Bonds: Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 3.81% from 3.80% late Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by three to two on volume of 1.19 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners five to four on volume of 2.26 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:40 pm : A bounce by the buck weighed down stocks during the early going, but strength among financial issues helped carry the broader stock market to its fourth straight gain.

The dollar traded with strength for the entire session and finished with a 0.6% gain against a basket of foreign currencies. Though that gain weighed on the broader market, it was particularly burdensome for raw materials stocks, which had outperformed during the previous session. Materials stocks pared their losses, though; they finished with a 0.5% loss.

Early weakness also came amid losses in Asia, where some considered a rate hike for Chinese short-term debt to be a hint toward tighter monetary policy. Action was mixed in Europe, where the Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and its $200 billion pound asset purchase plan in place.

News that the U.S. issued a warning that banks should guard against the risk of rising interest rates caused a momentary pull back from a slow, afternoon ascent that was led by the financial sector. Financials found renewed support and finished with a 2.1% gain, though. Banks saw some of the best gains as shares of regional lenders spiked 5.7% and diversified banks bounded to a 3.3% gain.

The move contrasted the relatively lackluster performance of the financial sector during the fourth quarter. Some market pundits believe that participants are rotating back into the financial sector and that has forced short-sellers to cover their positions, which were taken amid negative analyst commentary during December.

Industrials made up the next best performing sector. They advanced 1.3%, thanks to strength in General Electric (GE 16.25, +0.80) and Texas Industries (TXI 38.40, +1.26), which posted a smaller-than-expected loss for its latest quarter.

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY 41.94, +2.71) posted a positive earnings surprise and upside guidance. Its report complemented a batch of generally upbeat monthly same-store sales results. Support for the space faded as the session progressed, but retailers were still able to finish with a 0.8% gain.

Initial jobless claims for the week that ended January 2 didn't cause much of a stir. Initial claims totaled 434,000, up 1,000 from the prior week. The latest tally was slightly less than the 439,000 claims that had been expected. Continuing claims came in at 4.80 million, which is a smaller total than the 4.98 million continuing claims that many had come to expect. Continuing claims for the previous week were unchanged at 4.98 million.

Advancing Sectors: Financials (+2.1%), Industrials (+1.3%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.8%), Health Care (+0.4%)
Declining Sectors: Telecom (-0.9%), Utilities (-0.5%), Materials (-0.5%), Tech (-0.4%), Energy (-0.2%)
Unchanged: Consumer StaplesDJ30 +33.18 NASDAQ -1.04 NQ100 -0.1% R2K +0.6% SP400 +0.5% SP500 +4.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1576/2.30 bln/1129 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1874/1.19 bln/1184

3:35 pm : Equities have recovered from a sell-off at the top of the hour following a headline which detailed a warning about interest rate risks to U.S. banks.

The headline sent the dollar index higher, extending the session's move. Strength in the dollar index weighed on commodity prices this session.

Natural gas futures traded modestly lower this session. The heaviest selling pressure was not an immediate reaction to in-line inventory data out this morning. The February contract closed down 3.2% at $5.82 per MMBtu. Crude oil traded lower today after posting gains for 10 consecutive sessions. The February contract closed down 0.6% at $82.66 per barrel. Still, the February contract is up some 12% over the last 11 sessions.

Gold futures traded in a choppy, narrow range, and finished the session modestly lower, down about 0.2% at $1133.70 per ounce. Silver futures trended to the upside despite the strength in the dollar. The March contract repeatedly found resistance at the $18.35 level, however. It closed right at that level, up 1.0%.DJ30 +30.30 NASDAQ -3.51 SP500 +4.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1490/1.92 bln/1221 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1779/898 mln/1253

3:00 pm : The stock market has managed to make its way to a session high after breaking out of another afternoon of range-bound trade. The upward push comes as financial stocks extend their advance to a 2.4% gain.

Industrial stocks have followed. They now sport a 1.4% gain.

Still, there is plenty of weakness in the broader market -- telecom stocks are still down 0.8%; utilities are down 0.7%, tech is down 0.6%, and; energy is down 0.4%. DJ30 +26.53 NASDAQ -3.89 SP500 +4.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1433/1.72 bln/1258 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1730/798 mln/1289

2:30 pm : The Nasdaq Composite continues to lag its counterparts as it trades with a modest loss. The downturn comes as large-cap tech takes a turn lower for the second straight session. Weakness among large-cap tech has both the Nasdaq Composite and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.3%.

Of large-cap tech issues, semiconductor and semiconductor equipment outfits SanDisk (SNDK 30.29, -1.14), Micron (MU 10.88, -0.34), and Marvell Tech (MRVL 21.12, -0.50) are showing particular weakness. Their losses have the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX 362.17, -4.17) down 1.1%. DJ30 +17.38 NASDAQ -6.69 SP500 +2.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1341/1.55 bln/1328 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1629/721 mln/1375

2:00 pm : Action this afternoon has been rather subdued as stocks in the broader market continue to trade sideways in a narrow range.

The number of advancing sectors and declining sectors in the broader market are almost evenly balanced. However, their positions diverge considerably as advancing sectors currently sport gains that range from 0.3% (health care) to 1.9% (financials), while declining sectors trade with losses that range from 0.3% (consumer discretionary) to 0.7% (utilities, energy, materials, tech).

Amid the mixed action, Treasuries have failed to find much support. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note has been left to trade flat in subdued action. DJ30 +13.15 NASDAQ -8.04 SP500 +1.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1313/1.44 bln/1332 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1577/677 mln/1409

1:30 pm : The stock market continues to crawl along just above the neutral line as advancing issues hold a slight edge over declining issues in the NYSE.

Trading volume on the NYSE has been solid this session. At the current pace of trade, volume on the big board will likely eclipse averages for the last couple of weeks. DJ30 +13.83 NASDAQ -7.35 SP500 +1.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1294/1.32 bln/1341 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1549/629 mln/1412

1:00 pm : The stock market continues to trade near the neutral line as strength among financial issues is countered by weakness among tech stocks.

Financials, which are the second largest sector by market weight in the S&P 500, have made their way to a 1.9% gain amid strength in bank stocks. Buyers have shown particular interest in shares of both diversified banks (+3.6%) and regional lenders (+5.6%). Diversified financial services giant Bank of America (BAC 17.03, +0.64) has been among this session's most actively traded names, though. Its shares were upgraded by analysts at Credit Suisse.

Industrial stocks are also faring well. The sector is up 1.0% amid strength in General Electric (GE 16.41, +0.96) and Texas Industries (TXI 38.48, +1.34). Texas Industries posted a smaller-than-expected loss for its latest quarter.

Better-than-expected earnings from homebuilder Lennar (15.59, +1.89) has helped win support for the consumer discretionary sector (+0.6%), as has a batch of pleasing same-store sales results for December. Of the 27 retailers that Briefing.com covered this morning, 21 topped expectations. Macy's (M 17.45, +0.35) and Nordstrom (JWN 38.52, +1.09) even went on to offer increased earnings forecasts. However, retailers have surrendered some of their gains and now trade 0.4% to the upside.

For the second straight session tech stocks have weighed on the broader market. Tech, which represents the largest sector in the S&P 500, is currently down 0.7%. Losses among large-cap tech issues like Google (GOOG 599.51, -8.75), Microsoft (MSFT 30.27, -0.50), and Intel (INTC 20.36, -0.44) are the sector's primary laggards. They have also caused the Nasdaq to lag its counterparts.

Today's economic calendar was a bit light on activity. Its primary item was the latest weekly initial jobless claims total, which was generally flat from the prior week and on par with expectations. Continuing claims came down from the previous week more than expected, though. Still, the data didn't cause much of a stir. DJ30 +4.68 NASDAQ -8.88 SP500 +1.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1287/1.21 bln/1334 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1557/585 mln/1414

12:30 pm : Industrial stocks have rallied to a 1.0% gain. The move comes amid leadership from Texas Industries (TXI 38.32, +1.18), which posted a smaller-than-expected loss of $0.13 per share for its latest quarter. The company made note that it was able to maintain its gross profit margin compared to the previous year, despite a 36% drop in sales.

General Electric (GE 16.31, +0.86) has also provided leadership to the industrial sector. The stock is on pace for one of its best single-session percentage gains in months.

Meanwhile, retailers have handed back some of their gains; the group now sports a more modest gain of 0.5%. It had been up more than 1.0% earlier in the session. DJ30 +8.46 NASDAQ -7.72 SP500 +1.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1273/1.09 bln/1320 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1541/531 mln/1400

12:00 pm : For the second straight session the Nasdaq is lagging its counterparts. Its relative weakness continues to stem from losses among large-cap tech issues like Google (GOOG 602.98, -5.28), Microsoft (MSFT 30.21, -0.56), and Intel (INTC 20.40, -0.40). Even Apple (AAPL 210.65, -0.32) has had a lackluster session, though Reuters reported that it had its target raised by analysts at Barclays.DJ30 +1.21 NASDAQ -10.47 SP500 +0.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1227/963 mln/1357 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1439/464 mln/1482

11:30 am : The stock market has started to move sideways along the neutral line. Financials remain a primary means of support as the sector ascends to a 1.3% gain.

Regional banks have jumped out to a 3.7% gain. The group has found support in the face of a report from The Wall Street Journal that regulators are requiring many small banks to set aside extra capital because of what the article said was an unusual mortgage-bond shopping spree that began as housing market trouble was brewing, and many of the bonds were reduced to junk status as defaults grew. DJ30 +0.45 NASDAQ -7.59 SP500 +0.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1254/860 mln/1277 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1459/419 mln/1425

11:00 am : Stocks have rebounded from their recent broad-based slide. Overall action remains mixed, though.

Financials have been a key source of support for the latest upturn. The sector has made its way to a 0.8% gain amid strength bank stocks and diversified financial services stocks. Bank of America (BAC 16.85, +0.46) has been a primary leader for the group; its shares were upgraded by analysts at Credit Suisse.

Consumer discretionary stocks are also up 0.8%. The sector's strength stems from retailers (+0.9%) and homebuilders (+6.0%). Retailers reported solid monthly same-store sales results for December with Macy's (M 17.40, +0.30) and Nordstrom (JWN 38.61, +1.18) increasing their outlooks. Meanwhile, homebuilder Lennar (14.97, +1.27) won support with better-than-expected earnings for its latest quarter. DJ30 +4.00 NASDAQ -5.33 SP500 +0.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1242/722 mln/1260 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1413/352 mln/1445

10:30 am : Largely the result of a 0.6% gain by the dollar, commodities have been unable to extend their strong gains from the previous session. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index is on track for its first loss in four sessions; it is presently down 0.3%.

Oil prices have pulled back to $82.80 per barrel, down 0.4%, after they made their way to a fresh 52-week intraday high in the previous session of pit trade. Oil prices are still up more than 4% week-to-date.

Natural gas prices have spiked out of negative territory to trade with a modest gain at $6.01 per contract in the wake of the latest weekly inventory report, which showed a draw of 153 bcf. The consensus had called for a draw of 154 bcf.

Meanwhile, gold prices are down 0.6% to $1130.10 per ounce. Silver prices were last quoted at $18.16 per ounce, down fractionally. DJ30 -33.93 NASDAQ -11.89 SP500 -3.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 903/489 mln/1487 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1073/248 mln/1729

10:00 am : Stocks started the session with a slight loss, but they have since gone on the slide. The downturn losses has stocks facing their worst performance of the new year.

This morning's retreat has been rather broad based. As such, eight of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 are now in the red; only consumer discretionary stocks and financial stocks are in positive territory. Financials and consumer discretionary stocks are both up a very small 0.1%, though.

Early movers: Trading up -- INSP +19.3%, ZUMZ +18.7%, SHLD +13.7%, SONS +10.8%, PARD +10.2%, LEN +9.6%, BBBY +9.3%, CHOPW +9%, BZH +8.8%, RADS +8.7%, BKE +8.3%, SHAW +7.2%; Trading down -- GME -18.5%, TSRA -16.9%, HOTT -9.4%, ZGEN -9%, ANF -6.2%, LCAV -5.1%

Advancing Sectors: Financials (+0.1%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Materials (-1.4%), Energy (-0.9%), Telecom (-0.8%), Tech (-0.7%), Consumer Staples (-0.6%), Utilities (-0.4%), Industrials (-0.3%), Health Care (-0.1%)DJ30 -63.56 NASDAQ -15.02 SP500 -5.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 825/312 mln/1473 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 921/173 mln/1791

09:45 am : All three major indices are down with slight losses. Their underlying action is rather mixed as the 10 major sectors are evenly split between advancers and decliners.

Consumer discretionary stocks are up a solid 0.5%, though. That's owed largely to the 0.8% gain currently sported by retailers. Retailers have found favor following a large batch of better-than-expected same-store sales results for December.

Materials stocks and energy stocks are at the other end of things. They are down 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively, as they cut into their gains from the previous session. DJ30 -16.63 NASDAQ -3.89 SP500 -1.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1233/160 mln/957 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1260/106 mln/1364

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.80. Stock futures continue to suggest that the broader market will open with a slight loss. The downtick in stock prices stems from a stronger dollar, which is off of its morning high, but still up 0.5% against a basket of foreign currencies, and overseas selling that followed indications of tighter monetary policy in Asia. However, retailers have offered support for premarket participants; the latest batch of monthly same-store sales results proved better than expected and several companies were confident enough to increase their earnings outlook. The latest initial claims figures weren't anything to applaud, but then again they weren't any worse than expected.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.80. Strength in the dollar continues to overshadow some generally upbeat monthly same-store numbers. In turn, the tone ahead of the opening bell remains mildly downbeat. Meanwhile, markets in Europe are a bit mixed as Germany's DAX drops 0.4% amid weakness in Bayer AG and Daimler (DAI). The bourses declining issues outnumber its advancers by roughly 2-to-1. In France, the CAC is off by 0.1%. France Telecom is a primary laggard. In Britain, where the Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 0.5% and held steady its asset 200 billion pound asset purchase program, the FTSE is flat. HSBC (HBC) is among its primary detractors, though Barclays (BCS) and Lloyds Group (LYG) have shown strength. In Asia, both the MSCI Asia Pacific Index and Japan's Nikkei fell 0.5%. The Nikkei had traded in positive territory during the session, but slipped after China's central bank unexpectedly raised rates at a three-month bill auction. Some suggested that the move by the Chinese could signal the start of monetary tightening, though in recent weeks officials have indicated a desire to maintain an accomodative monetary policy in place. Still, Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 0.7%. China Construction Bank, Bank of China, and China Life all slide considerablye. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite fell 1.9%. Banks were among its weakest performers.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.80. Stock futures have shown little reaction to the 8:30 AM ET release of the latest jobless claims figures. According to the data, initial jobless claims for the week that ended January 2 totaled 434,000, up 1,000 from the prior week, which is slightly less than the 439,000 claims that had been expected. The four-week moving average now stands at 450,250. Continuing claims came in at 4.80 million, which is a smaller total than the 4.98 million continuing claims that many had come to expect. Continuing claims for the previous week were unchanged at 4.98 million.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.30. A strong 0.7% gain by the dollar against a basket of foreign currencies has put pressure on stock futures, which currently point to a lower start. Weakness among overseas markets hasn't helped. There haven't been any market-moving headlines this morning, despite a couple of earnings announcements and the release of monthly same-store sales results. However, weekly jobless claims figures are due at the bottom of the hour; any surprises could induce a swing in morning sentiment.

06:25 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.00.

06:25 am : Nikkei...10681.66...-49.80...-0.50%. Hang Seng...22269.45...-147.20...-0.70%.

06:25 am : FTSE...5509.72...-20.30...-0.40%. DAX...5980.12...-54.20...-0.90%.

M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Go Back To TheStrategyLab.com Homepage


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