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 Post subject: December 22nd Tuesday 2009 Emini ES ($ES_F) points +2.50
PostPosted: Sun Dec 27, 2009 8:57 pm 
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Written By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip involving WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis) because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=68&t=409

Quote:
Only two trades today as planned due to the christmas holidays and via the fact I'm not really comfortable in trading the low volatility trading ranges that appear soon after 10am est during the holiday trading sessions. Both trades were via the trading plan although I had some problems (trade management error) on the first trade that resulted in a small loss. I was lucky it wasn't a bigger loss.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their efforts in trade signals while ignoring the impact on their trading results via market experience, discipline, money management, team collaboration, proper trading enviornment (home or office), market psychology, trader psychology (trading habits/routine and personal lifestyle). If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +2.50 Emini ES ($ES_F) points

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Stocks Push Higher In Light Trading
By Ben Rooney, staff reporter
December 22, 2009: 4:50 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rose for a third day Tuesday, with the Dow and S&P 500 ending just below 14-month highs, after two economic reports continued to fuel optimism about the economy in a thin trading session.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 51 points, or 0.5%. The S&P 500 index (SPX) rose 4 points, or 0.3%. Both gauges are near their highest levels since October 2008. The S&P 500 briefly traded above its 14-month high during the session.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP), advanced 12 points, or 0.5%, to close at its highest level since September 2008.

Oil recovered from earlier losses to close above $74. Gold continued to fall as the dollar firmed against rival currencies. Bond prices rose.

Stocks opened on an upbeat note after a government report showed the economy grew in the third quarter, although at a more tepid pace than forecast. The advance gained steam after an industry report showed sales of existing homes rose in November to the highest level in three years. But stocks settled into a narrow range during the afternoon amid a lack of market moving news.

"There's not a whole lot to trade off of today," said Nick Kalivas, vice president of financial research at MF Global Research in Chicago. "We're winding down for the year."

Wall Street has been in a holding pattern recently as investors look to protect gains accumulated over the last several months. The market has rallied broadly since March as a flood of government stimulus has helped the economy emerge from one of the deepest recessions on record.

For the year, the major indexes are all on track to post double-digit percentage gains. The Dow has gained nearly 19% so far this year, while the S&P 500 is up about 23% year to date. The Nasdaq has been the best performer of the year, climbing about 42%.
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Analysts said the tone should remain subdued for the rest of the holiday-shortened week. The stock market will close early Thursday and remain dark Friday for the Christmas holiday.

"Most of the professional traders are done for the year," said Dan Cook, senior market analyst at IG Markets. "The guys who are left on the floor are executing client trades, which are mostly short-term trades."

Still, the lack of participation could make for some volatile moves, since low trading volumes tend to exaggerate swings in the market.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by about three to one on volume of 603 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by two to one on volume of 1.3 billion shares

Economy: The National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes rose 7.4% in November to an annual rate of 6.54 million units, driven largely by government subsidies. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected the annual sales rate to rise to 6.25 million units.

The increase in home sales helped boost optimism that the economy is headed for a strong recovery next year. But analysts were quick to point out that sales have been supported by government subsidies, including an $8,000 tax credit and the Federal Reserve's $1.25 trillion mortgage asset purchasing program.

"Certainly the number is constructive for the market," Kalivas said. "The question is: How will the housing market look when Fed winds down its mortgage program and homebuyers credit fades away?"
Signs of recovery? Look to the yield curve

Earlier, the Commerce Department released its final revision of third-quarter gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity. The government said that GDP rose 2.2% in the three months ended in September.

That was less than the 2.7% gain projected by economists surveyed by Briefing.com. The final GDP figure was also below the 3.5% growth rate the government first reported in October. Nonetheless, it was still a marked improvement over the previous four quarters in which economic activity shrank.

"I don't think the GDP number was so unexpected by most market watchers," said Abigail Doolittle, a portfolio manager at Johnson Illington Advisors. "People are pleased by the fact that it remains up."

Company news: Boeing (BA, Fortune 500) rose 1.5% after the plane maker increased its stake in Global Aeronautical LLC to bring more of the 787 Dreamliner's operations under its direct control.
0:00 /1:18Boeing, Airbus sign Asian deals

Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) announced Monday that it is offering buyouts and early retirement to its 41,000 U.S. factory workers. The carmaker is looking to cut payroll costs in its effort to return to profitability by 2011.

World markets: Stocks in Asia closed higher, with Tokyo's Nikkei index up 1.9%. European markets closed higher.

Bonds. Treasury prices fell, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note rising to 3.74%. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Money and oil: The dollar eased against the euro and the UK pound, but gained versus the yen.

Crude oil for February delivery rose 68 cents to settle at $74.40 a barrel.

Gold for February delivery dropped $9.30 to settle at $1,086.70 an ounce.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:15 pm : More broad-based buying sent stocks to fresh 52-week highs in the face of a surprise downward revision to third quarter GDP and a gain by the greenback.

An extension of the previous session's buying effort positioned stocks for a strong start this morning, but the mood was tempered by news that third quarter GDP was determined to have increased at a slower-than-expected annualized rate of 2.2%, according to the third and final estimate. The consensus prediction called for no revisions to the 2.8% increase that had been posted in the previous estimate.

However, buyers weren't dissuaded by the data. Their case was strengthened by existing home sales figures for November. The data showed that existing home sales climbed at a stronger-than-expected clip of 7.4% month-over-month. That lifted the annualized rate to 6.54 million units, which exceeded the average prediction that sales would climb to a rate of 6.25 million units.

Shortly after the release of the home sales figures, the S&P 500 set a fresh 52-week high. It wasn't led by any individual name or sector; rather, its source of support was broad. Such broad-based buying helped the Nasdaq Composite and the Amex Airline Index (XAL 34.17, +1.49) put in fresh 52-week highs of their own. The Nasdaq actually closed near those highs.

The broader stock market wasn't able to close at its session highs, but it did successfully work through some moderate midsession selling pressure that stemmed from a bounce by the greenback. The dollar had a mixed start, but it firmed up and climbed against competing currencies to take the Dollar Index to a fresh three-month high. It finished off of that mark with a gain of 0.2%.

This session's trading volume wasn't very high; fewer than 1 billion shares exchanged hands on the NYSE. Such low trading volume often enables stocks to move more than they ordinarily would during a day with more typical levels of trading volume. Perhaps more importantly, low share volume often suggests a lack of conviction behind the market's move.

Nonetheless, the buying effort pushed volatility lower for the second straight session. In turn, the Volatility Index stands at a new 52-week low.

Treasuries continued to tumble, too. The benchmark 10-year Note shed 18 ticks and saw its yield rise to 3.75% for the first time since August.

Advancing Sectors: Telecom (+1.0%), Materials (+0.7%), Tech (+0.6%), Energy (+0.5%), Consumer Staples (+0.4%), Health Care (+0.4%), Financials (+0.3%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.2%), Industrials (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Utilities (-0.7%)DJ30 +50.79 NASDAQ +15.01 SP500 +3.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1585/1.72 bln/1098 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1900/955 mln/1114

3:35 pm : Commodities traded with broad losses early in the session as the dollar index rose to three month highs. However, in a move now customary, a pullback in the dollar pared losses.

Still, the overall gain seen in the dollar was enough to send precious metals 0.6% lower on the session. February gold futures bounced off the $1075 level as the dollar hit highs. After hitting resistance at the $1085 level, the February contract closed 0.8% lower at $1086.70 per ounce. March silver hit a low at $16.78 per ounce in tandem with gold's lows. The March contract actually broke into positive territory, however, and hit a session high at $17.19 per ounce before paring that gain and closing five cents lower, or 0.3%, at $17.93 per ounce.

Crude oil futures spiked about $1 late in the session. The February contract had been in negative territory for the entire pit trade prior to that move. The bottom in the contract price did coincide with a high in the dollar this session. However, today's move came after OPEC decided to leave output levels unchanged this morning. Also, analysts are expecting another drop in inventory levels tomorrow morning.

January natural gas bounced off a session low at $5.53 per contract before the dollar topped out. It rose for the rest of the session and actually closed in positive territory, up 0.7% at $5.71 per contract.DJ30 +43.53 NASDAQ +14.07 SP500 +3.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1643/1.40 bln/1045 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1846/650 mln/1150

3:00 pm : Airline stocks have been among this session's best performers. In fact, buyers pushed the Amex Airline Index (XAL 34.18, +1.50) to a fresh 52-week high earlier this session. The index has held on to a gain of more than 4.5% as it moves sideways in afternoon action.

Airlines have also been among the best performers this year, during which time they've already compiled a year-to-date gain of more than 40%.

Meanwhile, the broader market continues to sport a modest, but broad-based gain of its own. However, it has yet to make its way back to its session high, which also marked a 52-week high for the broad market measure. DJ30 +473.46 NASDAQ +13.84 SP500 +4.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1599/1.27 bln/1075 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1840/587 mln/1156

2:30 pm : Stocks continue to trade in listless fashion, but broad-based gains remain -- advancing issues outnumber decliners by more than 2-to-1 in the S&P 500.

Amid steady support for stocks, volatility is down markedly. In turn, the Volatility Index has fallen 4.1%. That puts it at a fresh 52-week low. DJ30 +47.69 NASDAQ +12.24 SP500 +4.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1575/1.18 bln/1077 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1867/546 mln/1115

2:00 pm : Stocks continue to gradually ascend from their midsession lows. The climb has put the Nasdaq Composite at a fresh 52-week high, but the broader S&P 500 has yet to extend the 2009 highs that it notched this morning.

Meanwhile, crude oil prices have made a strong reversal from negative territory to a 1.2% gain at $74.60 per barrel. That move, combined with broader market support, has lifted the energy sector to a 0.7% gain. DJ30 +55.62 NASDAQ +13.92 SP500 +5.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1528/1.08 bln/1108 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1872/499 mln/1111

1:30 pm : Stocks continue to reclaim earlier gains, but the S&P 500 has not yet returned to its session high.

However, the broader market's move has helped to pull the financial sector up from a modest loss to a 0.2% gain. Telecom has benefited the most from this session's buying effort, though. Telecom stocks are up 1.1%, more than any other major sector.

Telecom has also been one of the best performing sectors this month; it is up nearly 7.5% during December. On the other hand, financials have been one of the worst performing sectors during December; the sector is down nearly 1.5% month-to-date. DJ30 +56.83 NASDAQ +14.03 SP500 +4.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1535/983 mln/1103 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1840/453 mln/1106

1:00 pm : Despite a surprise downward revision to third quarter GDP, stocks started the session in higher ground and made their way to a fresh 2009 high with help from the latest existing home sales figures. Stocks have since surrendered some of their gains, but they remain in positive territory.

The third estimate for third quarter GDP was revised downward to a 2.2% annualized growth rate, which is below the 2.8% growth rate that had been widely expected and down from the 2.8% rate of increase posted in the previous estimate. That didn't undermine the positive mood among early participants, though. Instead, stocks started the session with broad-based gains.

The S&P 500 ran into resistance as it encountered its 2009 highs, but eventually pushed through the barrier to set a fractionally improved best for the year. The move came just a few minutes after the release of November existing home sales, which made a stronger-than-expected 7.4% monthly increase.

Stocks were unable to hold their highs as the Dollar Index made its way to a fresh three-month high, however. The greenback has since pulled back so that it now trades with a 0.1% gain against competing currencies. That pullback has helped stocks reclaim some of their gains.

There hasn't been much participation this session, given the low level of trading volume currently seen in the NYSE. Nonetheless, the general mood among equity investors remains positive; of the major sectors in the S&P 500, only utilities (-0.6%) are in the red.

Given the support for stocks, Treasuries continue to tumble. The benchmark 10-year Note has fallen 20 ticks this session after it dropped more than one full point in the previous session. Its yield currently stands at 3.75% for the first time since August. DJ30 +52.45 NASDAQ +12.34 SP500 +4.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1488/889 mln/1135 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1775/412 mln/1177

12:30 pm : Utilities stocks have retreated to a 0.6% loss as independent power producers (-1.3%) and electric utilities (-0.8%) fall out of favor. Industrials (+0.1%) and financials (+0.1%) are flirting with possible losses of their own -- financials had already spent some time in negative ground earlier this session, but they have since made their way back to positive ground. DJ30 +43.38 NASDAQ +9.85 SP500 +3.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1429/805 mln/1173 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1709/372 mln/1233

12:00 pm : Treasuries remain out of favor. After the benchmark 10-year Note shed more than one full point in the previous session, it has gone on to drop another 18 ticks this session. That has the 10-year's yield at 3.75% for the first time since August.

Meanwhile, stocks continue to trade with modest gains after they failed to sustain fresh 2009 highs in morning trade.DJ30 +40.81 NASDAQ +8.64 SP500 +2.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1454/734 mln/1148 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1671/335 mln/1232

11:30 am : The stock market remains off of its session high as it chops along with a modest gain. Action has been generally listless this session.

Trading volume has been modest this session; fewer than 300 million shares have exchanged hands so far on the NYSE. Citigroup (C 3.36, -0.06) currently tops the list of most actively traded names by volume -- more than 26 million shares of the stock have already been traded this session. DJ30 +33.78 NASDAQ +5.85 SP500 +2.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1401/641 mln/1165 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1606/294 mln/1293

11:00 am : Stocks recently pulled back from their morning highs, but the major indices remain in the green. Financials have become a source of weakness as they slide to a 0.1% loss.

Meanwhile, the Dollar Index has made its way to a fresh three-month high as the greenback jumps out to a 0.3% gain against competing currencies.

The dollar's advance has increased the pressure against commodities, which now trade with a 0.7% loss, as measured by the CRB Commodity Index. DJ30 +45.27 NASDAQ +9.80 SP500 +3.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1413/509 mln/1078 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1664/237 mln/1166

10:30 am : The stock market recently set a fractionally improved 2009 high, but it has struggled to extend the move. There haven't been any individual leaders behind the advance, but energy stocks currently sport some of the best gains of any major sector; energy stocks are up 0.8%, collectively.

The energy sector's rise comes in the face of lower oil prices, which were last quoted at $73.40 per barrel, down 0.4%. Natural gas prices were last quoted at $5.59 per contract, down 1.5%, after an early morning retreat.

Precious metals have been rather poor performers this morning. Gold prices were last quoted 0.9% lower at $1085.60 per ounce. Silver prices were last quoted at $16.89 per ounce, down 0.9%.

In a broader measure of commodities, the CRB Commodity Index is currently down 0.2%. Despite that weakness, support for stocks has the materials sector up to a 0.5% gain. DJ30 +58.65 NASDAQ +14.07 SP500 +5.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1512/385 mln/920 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1920/189 mln/897

10:00 am : Stocks continue to sport broad-based gains as the S&P 500 remains near 2009 highs. Action has been a bit choppy in the wake of the latest dose of data.

Existing home sales for November hit an annualized rate of 6.54 million units, which is above the rate of 6.25 million units that had been widely expected, and up from the rate of 6.09 million units that was posted in the previous month.

Month-over-month, existing home sales increased 7.4%, which is stronger than the 2.5% monthly increase that had been expected, but not as strong as the 9.9% monthly increase that had been posted in October.

Separately, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index posted a -4, which is worse than the 5 that had been expected.

Early movers: Trading up -- ATHX +37.9%, ADES +33.6%, SHS +19%, CLRT +10.9%, AHD +8%, PRGS +7.6%, JBL +7.5%, AMKR +7.4%; Trading down -- MGPI -8.9%, PIM -8.3%, GIGM -6.5%, AIXG -5.3%, TWI -5.2%DJ30 +33.40 NASDAQ +13.17 SP500 +2.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1405/225 mln/892 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1834/123 mln/878

09:45 am : Stocks started this session broadly higher and even extended their morning advance in recent action. However, stocks have since run into resistance at 2009 highs.

Despite the resistance, gains remain solid among the major indices. There hasn't been any sign of clear leadership, though. DJ30 +34.84 NASDAQ +10.04 SP500 +3.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1263/144 mln/943 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1752/87 mln/899

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.80. Though a higher start looks to be in order, stock futures remain off of their morning highs after a substantial downward revision to third quarter GDP estimates undermined this morning's initial gusto, which came largely as an extension of the previous session's strong buying effort and solid gains overseas. Broad-based buying in the previous session came in the face of a stronger dollar, but the buck has been mixed this morning, despite a downgrade by Moody's of Greece's debt. The degree of the downgrade wasn't as severe as that already done by both Standard & Poor's and Fitch. Still to come this morning are the latest existing home sales figures, hompe prices for October, and a regional manufacturing index from Richmond at 10:00 AM ET.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.80. Stock futures continue to trade off of their morning highs in the wake of the final third quarter U.S. GDP reading. European stocks have also pulled back. In Britain, the FTSE is currently up 0.8%. Energy stocks have added key support as Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) and BP (BP) both climb. In economic news, the U.K. final third quarter GDP reading was revised upward to a decline of 0.2%, but that was still less than what had been widely expected. In Germany, the DAX is currently up 0.2%. Infineon Technologies (IFX) has climbed after the semiconductor maker raised its forecast for its first fiscal quarter. In economic news, German consumer confidence declined for a third month. In France, the CAC is currently up 0.5%. Energy stocks are also leaders as Total (TOT) garners support. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index closed with a 1.0% gain. Japan's Nikkei closed 1.9% higher, which put ita at a three-month closing high. A weaker yen lifted exporters after central banker Shirakawa stated he will persistently keep interest rates at close to zero. Toyota Motor (TM) advanced after media reported the company plans to cut car parts procurement costs. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng advanced 0.7%. China Construction Bank and Bank of China gained. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite dropped 2.3%, however. Property shares were battered.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.50. Stock futures have surrendered a few points in the wake of the third estimate for third quarter GDP. The GDP figure was revised downward to a 2.2% annualized growth rate, which is below the 2.8% growth rate that had been widely expected. It is also down from the 2.8% rate of increase that had been part of the previous estimate. Personal consumption was revised slightly lower to reflect a 2.8% increase, but that is below the 2.9% increase that had been forecast following the previous estimate's 2.9% increase. The third estimate for the third quarter GDP Price Index showed a 0.4% increase, which is slightly below the 0.5% increase that was widely anticipated and down from the 0.5% increase that had been posted in the previous estimate. Core personal consumption increased 1.2%, which is slightly below the 1.3% increase that had been expected and down from the 1.3% increase registered in the previous estimate.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.00. Stock futures suggest an extension of the previous session's strong and broad-based advance. The dollar is flat despite Moody's decision to downgrade Greece's debt rating, but strong buying overseas has been a primary means of support for premarket trade. In Europe, Britain's FTSE is leading the way with a 1.1% gain, despite a smaller-than-expected upward revision to its third quarter GDP reading, which showed that the British economy contracted by 0.2% during the quarter. The final reading for U.S. third quarter GDP is due at the bottom of the hour. The Richmond Fed Index for December, House Price Index for October, and existing home sales figures for November follow at 10:00 AM ET.

06:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.50.

06:35 am : Nikkei...10378.03...+194.60...+1.90%. Hang Seng...21092.04...+143.90...+0.70%.

06:35 am : FTSE...5352.61...+58.60...+1.10%. DAX...5954.38...+23.90...+0.40%.

M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Go Back To TheStrategyLab.com Homepage


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