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 Post subject: December 7th Monday 2009 Emini ES ($ES_F) points +19.50
PostPosted: Mon Dec 07, 2009 8:39 pm 
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Written By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip involving WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis) because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=68&t=394

Quote:
Just like the past Friday, I only took two trades today and then spent the rest of the day taking it easy due to being exhausted because of the lack of sleep I got (sinus problmem). In fact, I wouldn't be surprise if it was the stress related to these personal things that's exhausted me along with making it difficult to sleep the past few days. Anyways, had a duration today where I felt like trading and I caught a nice volatility spike downwards in the late afternoon trading session even though the first trade was via forgetting I left an open order but I was lucky to escape that trade without any damage.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their efforts in trade signals while ignoring the impact on their trading results via market experience, discipline, money management, team collaboration, proper trading enviornment (home or office), market psychology, trader psychology (trading habits/routine and personal lifestyle). If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +19.50 Emini ES ($ES_F) points

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Choppy Day On Wall Street
A stronger greenback drags on commodity prices, pressuring markets. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke cools rate hike fears.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: December 7, 2009: 5:53 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks were mixed late Monday at the end of a choppy session impacted by a strong dollar, falling oil and gold prices and comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that cooled worries about higher interest rates.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) was barely changed. The S&P 500 index (SPX) lost 3 points, or 0.3%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) shed 5 points, or 0.2%.

Stocks seesawed through the session as investors weighed Bernanke's comments and the direction of the dollar and commodity markets in the aftermath of last week's big payrolls report.

Stocks gained Friday at the end of a bumpy session following a better-than-expected November jobs report. The report showed employers cut just 11,000 jobs from their payrolls, the smallest amount since the start of the recession in December 2007. The report also showed the unemployment rate fell to 10% from a 26-year high of 10.2% in October.

The report was another strong sign that the economy had turned a corner, but it also raised questions about whether the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates faster than has been expected. If the economy is improving at a faster pace than expected, long-term inflation threats could come into play.

Such concerns kept the market churning Monday morning, sending the dollar higher and dollar-traded commodities lower as investors eschewed riskier assets.

But in the afternoon, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke seemed to downplay the likelihood of a rate hike, saying in a speech at the Economic Club of Washington that it is too soon to say whether the slowly-germinating recovery will last. The Fed has kept short-term interest rates at historic lows near zero for a year and is expected to continue to do so to support the recovery.

Bernanke also said that the central bank will make money on the trillions it has pumped into the economy over the last two years.

Bank stocks were among the big decliners, with the KBW Bank Sector (BKX) index losing 1.6%. Railroads, trucks and airlines slipped too, with the Dow Jones Transportation (DJT) average losing 1%.

Bailout: The Obama administration is expected to cut the cost of the bank bailout plan by almost 60%, in a move that could help trim the ballooning deficit. The White House is expected to announce in coming days that it will slash the cost of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) by $200 billion, bringing the long-term cost to $141 billion.

The money not used for the TARP could be used toward creating a new national jobs program or for paying down the deficit.

Consumer credit: Americans borrowed less in October, for a record ninth straight month, according to a Federal Reserve report released Monday.

Consumer credit fell at an annual rate of $3.51 billion in October after falling at an $8.77 billion annual rate in September. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought it would rise to a $9.3 billion annual rate.

Gold prices slump: COMEX gold for February delivery fell $5.50 to settle at $1,164 an ounce. Gold closed at an all-time high of $1,218.30 an ounce last week. Dollar-traded gold tumbled as the dollar firmed up.

The dollar and oil: The dollar gained versus the euro and slipped against the yen, causing dollar-traded oil prices to slide.

U.S. light crude oil for January delivery fell $1.74 to settle at $73.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.42% from 3.47% late Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

World markets: Overseas markets were mixed. European markets fell, with London's FTSE 100 and France's CAC 40 both losing around 0.2% and Germany's DAX down 0.5%. Asian markets ended mostly lower, with the exception of Japan's Nikkei, which gained 1.5%.

Market breadth was mixed. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers eight to seven on volume of 1.06 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers narrowly edged decliners on volume of 1.89 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:15 pm : Last Friday's mixed finish was extended into this session's early action as a lack of market-moving headlines left participants with few cues for trade. That left the day's direction to be largely determined by the U.S. dollar, which came into closer focus amid comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke.

In a speech before the Economic Club of Washington D.C., Fed Chairman Bernanke indicated that the FOMC is looking to keep interest rates low for an extended period of time. The comment is consistent with the Fed's previous statements, but it helped quell concern that the better-than-expected November jobs figures released on Friday would lead the Fed to raise interest rates sooner than later. Such concern had caused some profit taking on Friday.

Bernanke's comments helped drive the greenback from a one-month high against competing currencies to a 0.6% loss. Stocks responded with a climb to afternoon highs, where they traded with modest gains.

However, stocks were unable to extend their upturn beyond morning highs and eventually rolled over. Their downturn also came in conjunction with greenback's move off of its lows -- the Dollar Index finished with a 0.2% loss. The broader equity market settled above its session low with a modest loss.

Financials felt considerable weakness for most of the session; they fell to a 1.6% loss. The financial sector was weighed down by weakness in shares of banks (-1.6%) and diversified financial services outfits (-1.8%). Citigroup (C 4.03, -0.03) was unable to win favor for the sector's many players after news reports said the company has asked to repay $20 billion of its bailout funds. Last week's news that Bank of America (BAC 15.89, -0.39) plans to repay its $45 billion TARP loan helped win temporary favor for financials.

On a related note, The Wall Street Journal reported that the total cost of TARP could be cut by $200 billion.

Telecom was the best performing sector this session. The sector booked a 1.8% gain, which added to its gains from last week. Telecom stocks have gained 4.2% during the last six sessions. That's second only to utilities, which gained 4.6% during that time.

Commodities finished in mixed fashion. Gold prices settled 0.5% lower at $1164 per ounce, while contract prices for oil closed 2.0% lower at $73.94 per barrel. However, natural gas prices surged 8.7% to $4.98 per contract amid reports of the return of cold weather. Strength in natural gas gave the CRB Commodity Index a modest 0.1% gain. That put an end to its three consecutive advances.

There was only a small dose of data this session, but it caused little reaction among market participants. As expected, consumer credit declined for the ninth consecutive month in October, but the drop far less than expected. The consensus called for a $9.4 billion decline, but the actual drop was only $3.5 billion. September's drop in consumer credit was revised upward to reflect a $8.8 billion decline. The positive surprise for October and the upward revision to September's figures suggest that consumer demand for additional funding has not been wiped out as consumers deleverage themselves. In fact, if the recent trends continue, growth in consumer credit could actually occur by year's end.

Advancing Sectors: Telecom (+1.8%), Utilities (+0.7%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.5%), Consumer Staples (+0.1%), Materials (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Financials (-1.6%), Tech (-0.5%), Energy (-0.3%), Health Care (-0.2%), Industrials (-0.1%)DJ30 +1.21 NASDAQ -4.74 NQ100 -0.5% R2K +0.1% SP400 -0.1% SP500 -2.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1381/1.88 bln/1329 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1630/941 mln/1402

3:35 pm : The market is recovering from session lows, reached just before the top of the hour. Volume remains light on both the NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges.

In the commodities space, comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke mid-day sent the dollar lower, providing support to commodities.

Precious metals were especially helped by the move lower in the dollar. Both gold and silver futures pared losses as a result of the dollar's move lower. Still, losses from Friday extending into today's session. February gold finished 0.5% lower at $1164.00 per ounce and March silver finished 0.9% lower at $18.36 per ounce.

Natural gas futures made an impressive move higher this session as a result of cold weather forecasts for the eastern half of the U.S. The January contract rallied throughout the session but hit resistance at the $5.00 level. It closed 8.7% higher at $4.98 per contract. Crude oil futures moved lower for most of the session. Losses in the dollar drove the price up to the $75 level before that rally faded. The January contract finished 2.0% lower at $73.94 per barrel.DJ30 +3.25 NASDAQ -8.47 SP500 -3.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1173/1.57 bln/1488 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1524/765 mln/1486

3:00 pm : All three major indices are now in negative territory as this afternoon's selling effort intensifies and takes stocks to fresh session lows. The decline has been broad based, but telecom (+1.6%), utilities (+0.6%), and consumer discretionary stocks (+0.2%) have managed to hold their ground in positive territory.

The slide by stocks comes as the U.S. dollar improves its position relative to foreign currencies -- the Dollar Index had been down roughly 0.4% recently, but its loss is now more modest at 0.2%. DJ30 -10.51 NASDAQ -9.42 SP500 -3.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1217/1.37 bln/1483 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1552/648 mln/1446

2:30 pm : The S&P 500 has extended its afternoon slide back to the neutral line, which was last touched shortly before noon ET. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq has moved back into negative territory, but the Dow has fought to hold on to a fractional gain -- the blue chip index has yet to fall to a loss.

Amid the stock market's move lower, weakness has intensified among financials. The sector is down 1.3%, more than triple the loss of the next worst performing sector, which is tech (-0.4%).

Telecom remains at the other end of things -- it is up 1.7%.DJ30 +4.91 NASDAQ -5.39 SP500 -1.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1363/1.27 bln/1310 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1806/592 mln/1174

2:00 pm : Stocks recently surrendered some of their gains after they had failed to extend an afternoon upturn beyond morning highs. Pressure is particularly strong against financials, which are now at fresh session lows with a 0.7% loss.

The slide comes without any immediate catalyst or news item.

As for the dollar, which has been a key driver behind the market's moves in recent months, it remains near its session low as it trades with a 0.4% loss against a basket of foreign currencies. DJ30 +40.05 NASDAQ +2.14 SP500 +3.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1376/1.02 bln/1231 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1862/479 mln/1081

1:30 pm : Both the S&P 500 and the Dow recently made their way to fresh afternoon highs, but ran into resistance at their session highs, which were set in the first hour of trade.

Telecom continues to be a standout this session; the sector now sports a 2.3% gain. However, the strength in tech hasn't done much to provide leadership to the broader market since the sector represents just over 3% of the S&P 500's market weight. Of the 10 major sectors, that's the smallest relative proportion. DJ30 +40.05 NASDAQ +2.14 SP500 +3.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1376/1.02 bln/1231 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1862/479 mln/1081

1:00 pm : The broader equity market chopped along in the early going as participants took their cues from a rather mixed finish to Friday's session and a modest uptick by the U.S. dollar. However, recent comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke have helped to drive a pullback in the greenback and hiked stocks to early afternoon highs.

Bernanke is currently conducting a speech at the Economic Club of Washington D.C. During his remarks, Bernanke stated that a continued economic recovery is expected in the new year, but that there are still formidable headwinds. For instance, the jobless rate could decline slower than desired.

Bernanke made a point to state that Fed stimulus won't bring higher inflation and that inflation could fall further.

Amid Bernanke's speech, the Dollar Index has fallen to a fresh session low, where it now trades with a 0.4% loss. That has helped give way to a flurry of buying in the broader equity market.

Telecom has sported the best gains of any major sector this session. It is up 1.9% at the moment.

Financials have been a consistent laggard this session. The sector currently contends with a 0.3% loss. Banks (-0.8%) and financial services stocks (-0.3%) have been a primary drag on the sector. Their weakness comes even though Citigroup (C 4.09, +0.03) has asked to repay $20 billion of its bailout funds -- no doubt to help ease some of the government's claim on the company.

On a related note, The Wall Street Journal reported that the total cost of TARP could be cut by $200 billion.

Commodities have trimmed their losses in the wake of the dollar's decline. The CRB Commodity Index is flat after it had been down 0.9% at its session low. DJ30 +38.01 NASDAQ +1.88 SP500 +2.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1376/1.00 bln/1231 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1855/478 mln/1079

12:30 pm : The major indices continue to trade in mixed fashion. Meanwhile, small-caps and mid-caps are up modestly -- both the Rusell 2000 and the S&P 400 are up 0.2%.

As for some of the less widely followed indices, the Amex Airline Index is up 0.4%, the Dow Jones Transportation Index is down 0.7%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 0.5%.

In Europe, Germany's DAX closed with a 0.6% loss, while France's CAC closed 0.2% lower and Britain's FTSE finished with a 0.2% loss. DJ30 +26.60 NASDAQ -0.34 SP500 +0.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1297/919 mln/1290 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1675/423 mln/1251

12:00 pm : Commodities continue to trade with considerable weakness, even though the U.S. dollar has pulled back from its morning gain so that it now trades with a 0.2% loss against competing currencies. Still, oil prices are down nearly 1.2% to $74.60 per barrel, while gold prices are down 2.2% to $1143.50 per ounce.

Though there isn't much strength in the broader market at the moment, the slide in oil prices and gold prices has added additional weight to energy stocks and materials stocks, respectively. The energy sector is currently up just 0.1%; it had been up 0.5% at its session high. Meanwhile, the materials sector is up 0.2% after it was up as much as 0.7%. DJ30 +30.00 NASDAQ +0.50 SP500 +1.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1311/824 mln/1269 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1721/381 mln/1176

11:30 am : The S&P 500 has drifted back to the unchanged mark as selling pressure intensifies. Weakness in the broader market stems from losses among financial issues, which are now down 0.5%.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq has already dipped into negative ground. Tech has been the primary drag on the Nasdaq; tech stocks are down roughly 0.2%, collectively.

Blue chips are holding up the best, though. As a result, the Dow still trades with a modest gain. DJ30 +20.93 NASDAQ -1.57 SP500 +0.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1238/733 mln/1304 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1635/338 mln/1228

11:00 am : Stocks have pulled back from their morning highs, but continue to trade with modest gains. Telecom, up 1.4%, remains the best performing sector, while financials fall to a 0.4% loss, worse than any other sector.

Amid the moderate gains by the broader market, Treasuries have made their way to a modest gain of their own. The benchmark 10-year Note is up eight ticks. That has trimmed its yield to 3.44%, roughly 265 basis points above the yield of the 2-year Note, which is up just two ticks. At the longer end of the yield curve is the 30-year Bond, which is up just five ticks and yielding 4.39% at the moment.

A series of Treasury auctions featuring the 10-years and 30-years will take place later this week. Results could prove market moving, so both bond market participants and equity market participants will keep a close watch on the securities ahead of the auctions for any insight into investors' taste and tolerance for risk.DJ30 +24.33 NASDAQ +1.75 SP500 +1.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1326/630 mln/1180 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1699/290 mln/1131

10:35 am : The US Dollar Index is trading back near the unchanged line in current activity, while most commodities are trading lower.

Precious metals are some of the worst performing commodities this morning. Gold hit lows of $1136.10 per ounce overnight and has been trading only modestly above that level since. Gold is currently 2.1% lower at $1144.70 per ounce. March silver has been in the red all session so far and recently hit fresh lows of $17.93 per ounce and is currently 2.6% lower at $18.04 per ounce.

The energy complex is mixed this morning. January crude oil fell into negative territory overnight and hit new lows again in recent trade of $74.04 per barrel. Currently, crude is trading at $74.76, down 1%.

January natural gas is trading on its own today. After trading in a tight range for most of the overnight session, natural gas eventually began to steadily trend upward and has not stopped since. Fresh highs were hit again just minutes ago of $4.907 and nat gas is currently trading 6.7% higher at $4.893 per MMBtu.DJ30 +33.18 NASDAQ +4.09 SP500 +2.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1417/465.0 mln/1041 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1757/222.1 mln/996

10:00 am : Financials are lagging in the early going. Of the 10 major sectors, the financial sector is the only one in the red. Its decline is moderate, though; the sector is currently down 0.2%.

Diversified financial services stocks are the primary source of weakness for the sector. The group is down 0.6% at the moment. Regional banks are also under pressure, though. Regional banks have been pushed to a 0.5% loss.

Conversely, telecom is up an impressive 1.2%. It is the best performing sector in the S&P 500.

Early Movers: Trading up -- ROY +50.3%, ZILG +18.2%, ASIA +14.2%, NVDA +11.9%, NYB +10%, GSM +9%, TRA +8.7%, AMD +7.9%; Trading down -- ZLC -14.7%, ALTH -9.4%, KMGB -8.4%, TRE -7.6%, IAG -6.7%, EXK -6.7%

Advancing Sectors: Telecom (+1.2%), Utilities (+0.8%), Health Care (+0.8%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.6%), Industrials (+0.3%), Materials (+0.2%), Tech (+0.2%), Energy (+0.1%), Consumer Staples (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Financials (-0.2%)DJ30 +43.00 NASDAQ +5.93 SP500 +3.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1307/273 mln/1030 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1671/141 mln/986

09:45 am : The major equity averages started the session by chopping along the neutral line, but have since improved their position to trade with modest gains. Of the 10 major sectors, only consumer staples are in the red -- the sector is down fractionally.

Defensive-oriented sectors are faring the best. Health care and utilities are up 0.8%, while telecom is up 0.7%.

Materials stocks, as a group, are up 0.5% as weakness in gold stocks drags on the sector. Gold stocks are contending with considerable pressure as prices for the yellow metal fall 2.2% to $1143.50 per ounce. As a group, gold stocks are down 1.2%; the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD 112.03, -1.72) is down similarly. Barrick Gold (ABX 41.32, -1.36) is under even more pressure, though; the stock was downgraded by analysts at Credit Suisse. DJ30 +28.32 NASDAQ +4.28 SP500 +3.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1262/173 mln/1013 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1503/102 mln/1094

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.00. Stock futures continue to suggest that a modestly lower start is in order for today's session. The mildly weaker tone comes amid moderate strength in the U.S. dollar, which follows its 1.7% gain from Friday. There haven't been any market moving announcements, but Financial Times did report that Citigroup (C) aims to gain approval to repay $20 billion of bailout funds. The effort follows last week's announcement that Bank of America (BAC) will repay its $45 billion bailout from the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP). On a related note, The Wall Street Journal reported that the total cost of TARP could be cut by $200 billion. Shares of bank stocks are mixed in premarket trade, though. Many investors remain wary of potential headwinds that face banks. Commodities futures are under a fit of pressure this morning. The CRB Commodity Index is currently down roughly 0.8% to a morning low. Gold has been a primary detractor as the precious metal tacks on a 2% loss this morning to Friday's 4% fall. Gold was last quoted at $1145.20 per ounce. The drop is likely to be a drag on gold stocks, which fell nearly 7% during the course of the previous two sessions.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.80. The Dollar Index has eased back a bit from earlier levels, but continues to trade with a fractional gain. Nonetheless, its increase has undercut commodities prices. As such, gold is down 2.0% to $1145.80 per ounce. That extends its 4% slide from Friday. Meanwhile, oil prices are down 0.5% to $75.10 per barrel in the first few minutes of trade. The broader CRB Commodity Index is down 0.4%.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.50. Domestic stock futures continue to lag fair value. Meanwhile, Germany's DAX is currently down 0.5%. Siemens (SI) is a primary drag on the market average after it was downgraded by analysts at Morgan Stanley. The company had already fallen out of favor last week after it posted disappointing quarterly results. In France, the CAC is off by 0.3%. Its seclining issues have a slight advantage over advancers. Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) is a primary laggard, but Michelin has offered support. In Britain, the FTSE is off by 0.5%. Banks are back under pressure amid news from Times of London that further financial problems in Dubai could adversely affect U.K. banks. That has HSBC (HBC), Barclays (BCS), and Lloyds (LYG) under pressure. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei advanced 1.5% as Fanuc showed strength. Fast Retailing was a laggard, though. Japan Airlines gained 7% after a source said the government is considering a guarantee of about 700 billion yen in loans and other funds for the debt-laden airline. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 0.8% lower as commodity issues fell after gold prices eased. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 0.4% higher, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.1%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.00. News flow has been rather slow this morning and there are only a few items on the calendar for participants to look forward to, namely Fed Chairman Bernanke is scheduled to give a speech to the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. at noon ET and consumer credit for October is due at 3:00 PM ET. In the meantime, participants continue to keep an eye on the U.S. dollar, which is currently up some 0.2% against a basket of foreign currencies. The greenback's modest gain has caused a bit of a drag on stock futures, which currently lag fair value by a few points. Moderate declines among major European equity averages haven't helped the tone among premarket participants either, though.

06:38 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.30.

06:38 am : Nikkei...10167.60...+145.00...+1.50%. Hang Seng...22324.96...-173.20...-0.80%.

06:38 am : FTSE...5294.32...-28.00...-0.50%. DAX...5785.96...-31.70...-0.60%.

M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Go Back To TheStrategyLab.com Homepage


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