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 Post subject: December 4th Friday 2009 Emini ES ($ES_F) points +14.00
PostPosted: Sat Dec 05, 2009 12:36 am 
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Written By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip involving WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis) because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=68&t=391

Quote:
I only took two trades today and then spent the rest of the day doing very important personal stuff (tax accountant appointment, mailing christmas gifts to the U.S. and finishing up a home improvement project). However, the first trade of the day was a loser (see the above #FuturesTrades log) via going Long when I wanted to get Short. Simply, I clicked the wrong button. Yet, as soon as I realized what I did, I immediately dumped the trade position and got Short for a quick profit. Unfortunately I had to exit the position early to leave for my appointment.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their efforts in trade signals while ignoring the impact on their trading results via market experience, discipline, money management, team collaboration, proper trading enviornment (home or office), market psychology, trader psychology (trading habits/routine and personal lifestyle). If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +14.00 Emini ES ($ES_F) points

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Stocks Rally On Jobs Report
Wall Street gains after a choppy day in which investors welcomed a better-than-expected jobs report but pulled back after the Dow hit a new 14-month high.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: December 4, 2009: 6:03 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks ended higher Friday, as investors redoubled their efforts after an afternoon selloff, following a better-than-expected November jobs report.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 23 points, or 0.2%, to close at 10388.90 after hitting a 14-month high of 10,516.70 in the morning. The S&P 500 index (SPX) rose 6 points or 0.6%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 21 points, or 1%. All three indexes gained for the week.

Stocks rallied across the board in the first two hours after the open, leaving the Dow and S&P 500 at fresh 14-month highs and the Nasdaq just short of one. But the new highs caused some investors to step back.

A strong dollar sent gold prices tumbling and also hit commodities and stocks that benefit from a weaker greenback. Bond prices slumped, boosting the corresponding yields.

The jobs report "blew us away," said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors. "It confirms that the recession ended in the middle of the year and that we are moving ahead, even with some choppiness."

However, he said that while the labor market is healing, it still has a long way to go. That realization, combined with a little end-of-the-week fatigue, may have limited stock movement Friday.

"The jobs report was definitely positive and we are moving in the right direction, but it's important not to get too excited yet," said Michael Bapis, managing director at HighTower Advisors.

He said that while the economic news has been improving, it's hard to know what that improvement means in such an unusual economic environment.

A stronger dollar also put some pressure on the market, with gold prices plunging and commodity stocks slipping as well. Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500), DuPont (DD, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) were among the Dow's big losers. Tech leader IBM (IBM, Fortune 500) and financial firm Travelers (TRV, Fortune 500) were among the other losers.

Chemical company DuPont slumped 7% after it said its seed business will delay the release of several products.

Wall Street ended an uneven session lower Thursday ahead of the November jobs report, giving up early gains sparked by Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500)'s decision to pay back the $45 billion in government bailout money it took.

Jobs: Employers cut 11,000 jobs from their payrolls in November, the Labor Department reported Friday morning. It was the smallest number of job losses since the start of the recession in December 2007 and a surprise to economists who were looking for employers to cut 125,000 jobs in the month.

Job losses in September and October were also revised lower by a total of 159,000.

The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, fell to 10% from 10.2% in October. It was the biggest one-month decline in more than three years. Economists thought the unemployment rate would hold steady at 10.2%.

The report shows the battered labor market is recovering, yet job growth is not expected to pick up until later next year. In addition, some of the improvement in the unemployment rate in November is attributable to job seekers giving up and dropping out of the market entirely.

The report showed 15.4 million Americans are out of work and seeking jobs. Meanwhile, another 6 million have given up looking and another 9.2 million have only found part-time work when they want full-time work.

Factory orders: Orders rose 0.6% in October after climbing 1.5% in the previous month. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought orders would hold steady.

Gold dips after new record: COMEX gold for February delivery fell $48.80 to settle at $1,169.50 an ounce after ending the previous session at a record high of $1,218.30 an ounce. Dollar-traded gold tumbled as the dollar firmed up.

The dollar and oil: The dollar gained versus the euro and yen. The stronger dollar caused dollar-traded oil to give up most of its morning gains.

U.S. light crude oil for January delivery fell 99 cents to settle at $75.47 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

World markets: Overseas markets were mixed. European markets gained, with London's FTSE 100 up 0.2%, Germany's DAX up 0.8% and France's CAC 40 up 1.3%. Asian markets were mostly lower, with the exception of Japan's Nikkei.

Bonds: Treasury prices tumbled, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 3.47% from 3.37% late Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers three to two on volume of 1.57 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by almost two to one on volume of 2.33 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:05 pm : Better-than-expected unemployment numbers prompted participants to drive stocks to new 2009 highs in the early going, but the news was quickly sold. In turn, Friday made for the third straight session that stocks set fractionally better 2009 highs, but failed to sustain gains.

An early, tepid tone quickly turned positive as news that monthly nonfarm payrolls fell by their smallest amount in two years. According to official statistics, private payroll cuts in November totaled only 11,000, which is far less severe than the 125,000 job losses that had been expected. The moderated November number and upward revisions to job losses in previous months trimmed the official unemployment rate to 10.0% from 10.2%. The unemployment rate had been expected to stand still.

Another positive development for the employment picture was the rise in the average work week to 33.2 hours from 33.0 hours. The consensus called for 33.1 hours. Still, overall labor market remains weak.

Nonetheless, the headline jobs numbers were viewed positively and completely overshadowed news that factory orders for October increased 0.6%, which is better than the flat reading that had been expected, but not as strong as September's 1.6% increase.

The S&P 500 made its way up 1.7% to fresh 2009 highs amid broad-based buying, but support soon faded, which suggests that the good news had largely been priced into stocks. Still, stocks showed some resolve by fighting through a couple of dips into negative ground to finish with respectable gains.

Early gains by the stock market came in the face of a stronger dollar, which also won favor amid the pleasing jobs figures. However, as the greenback extended gains pressure against stocks began to mount. Pundits warn that the dollar's advance could be linked to potential interest rate hikes intended to curb inflation amid economic growth. There remains concern, though, that preemptive rate increases could dampen business conditions.

Interest in the dollar drove the Dollar Index to a 1.4% gain, which makes for one of its best single-session percentage advances this year -- the best came when the Dollar Index surged 1.8% in January. Still, the Dollar Index is up slightly more than 2% from its 52-week low, which was set last week.

With the dollar up, sellers crowded around commodities and basic materials stocks. That sent the CRB Commodity Index down 1.0%. Precious metals were particularly weak; gold settled 4.0% lower at $1169.00 per ounce. Gold stocks gave up 4.6% as the materials sector logged a 1.2% loss.

Oil prices surrendered an early gain of more than 1% to settle with a 1.1% loss at $75.65 per barrel. That downturn dragged energy stocks to a 0.8% loss.

Financials finished with a solid gain of 1.7%, though. Bank of America (BAC 16.20, +0.44) was a leader in the sector again. The company priced an offering at $15.00 per common equivalent security. The offering is expected to generate some $19.3 billion to help the bank repay its TARP loan.

There weren't many other corporate announcements, though Marvell Technology (MRVL 18.06, +1.53) posted better-than-expected adjusted earnings of $0.35 per share for the third quarter. The company went on to issue upside guidance for its fiscal fourth quarter. The stock traded as a leader in the Nasdaq Composite and helped the index hold up better than its counterparts against this session's reversal.

Trading volume was heavy this session as more than 1.4 billion shares exchanged hands on the NYSE this session. That was well above the 50-day moving average of 1.2 billion shares and on par with the 200-day moving average of 1.4 billion. DJ30 +22.07 NASDAQ +21.21 NQ100 +0.5% R2K +2.4% SP400 +1.4% SP500 +5.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2001/2.29 bln/694 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2167/1.47 bln/867

3:35 pm : The market has seen a marked recovery from session lows reached a little over an hour ago. The materials sector continues to be the primary laggard; it is currently down 1.0%.

Precious metals were taken to the woodshed this session. A spike in the dollar following the better-than-expected jobs report coincided with a sharp selloff in gold and silver futures, the dollar index is currently down 1.3%. Both precious metals continued the move lower throughout the session and closed near session lows. The recent dramatic moves lower in the dollar and higher in gold and silver led to dramatic reversals. February gold retreated from all-time highs hit yesterday and fell 4.0% to close at $1169.00 per ounce. March silver future fell 3.2% to close at $18.52 per ounce. Both futures have continued to move lower in the electronic trade.

Crude oil futures spiked in the premarket on the jobs data. After opening higher, however, the January contract faded for the remainder of the session and closed down 1.1% at $75.65 per barrel. Natural gas futures rose this session after falling almost 14% in the previous four sessions. A short-covering ahead of the weekend helped this move. The January natural gas contract rose 2.5% to close at $4.57 per contract.DJ30 +26.68 NASDAQ +20.40 SP500 +5.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1943/1.97 bln/755 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2086/1.13 bln/944

3:00 pm : The major stock indices sport varied gains as participants head into the final hour of this week's action. Such is also the case for the week; the Dow is up roughly 0.6% week-to-date, while the S&P 500 is up 1.0% week-to-date and the Nasdaq Composite is up 2.2% this week.

Trading volume has been strong this session, though. Roughly 1 billion shares have already been exchanged on the NYSE this session. The 50-day moving average for trading volume stands at nearly 1.2 billion shares, while the 200-day moving average stands closer to 1.4 billion. Trading volume hasn't exceeded the 200-day moving average in more than one month. DJ30 +4.99 NASDAQ +13.33 SP500 +2.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1814/1.78 bln/872 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1955/1.01 bln/1060

2:30 pm : The Dollar Index is now up 1.4% this session. That's among the best single-session percentage advances this year -- the best came when the Dollar Index surged 1.8% in January. Still, the Dollar Index is up just 2.3% from its 52-week low, which was set last week.

With the greenback making such a strong gain, commodities continue to trade lower. Heading into the close of pit trade, oil prices were down 1.7% to $75.15 per barrel. Meanwhile, gold prices continue to slide in electronic trade. The yellow metal is down a steep 5.1% to $1155 per ounce. DJ30 -34.08 NASDAQ +4.01 SP500 -1.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1768/1.66 bln/910 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1776/936 mln/1223

2:00 pm : In mid-afternoon trading, the Dow has slipped into negative territory, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq cling to small gains. After a busy morning of economic data, news flow has slowed down significantly as we head towards the end of the trading week.

The basic materials sector continues to be a laggard, currently down about 1.7%. More specifically, agriculture chemical stocks are weak, including shares of Potash (POT 116.56 -3.04), Mosaic (MOS 58.14 -1.71) and Agrium (AGU 57.79 -1.41).DJ30 -17.9 NASDAQ +7.5 SP500 +0.4 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1799/1.55/861 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1852/867.3/1126

1:30 pm : Stocks recently bounced back from negative territory to trade with a modest gain, but that move has lost momentum and caused gains to churn. The major indices are still in positive ground, though.

Meanwhile, the Dollar Index continues to tick higher. It is currently up 1.2%, which marks its best single-session percentage gain in months.

The dollar's advance has become a burden for commodity prices. After starting the session in higher ground, the CRB Commodity Index is down 1.1%. DJ30 +13.08 NASDAQ +10.46 SP500 +3.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1880/1.47 bln/791 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2015/818 mln/962

1:00 pm : Stocks are trading with modest gains following a volatile morning. The main news this session has been the November employment report, released at 8:30 ET.

The major indices started the session on a strong note as a much better-than-expected employment report induced buying interest. But highs were reached shortly after the open, with all three indices coming under selling pressure to hit negative ground around 11:45 ET.

There was no clear reason for the midsession selling, although it did correspond with continued strength in the dollar, which is up 1.0% as the 10-year note sheds 24 ticks.

Seven of the 10 sectors are posting a gain, led by financials (+1.1%) and industrials (+1.3%). The utilities (-0.9%) and materials (-0.9%) sectors are underperforming.

In regard to the employment report, U.S. nonfarm employment fell by 11,000 in November, much better than the expected drop of 150,000. In addition, previous months were revised to reflect fewer job losses. In turn, unemployment decreased to 10.0%, from the previous reading of 10.2%. Meanwhile, the average work week in November clocked in at 33.2 hours, a tick higher from the 33.1 hours consensus and 33.0 in October.

Stock futures spiked following the release, and European stocks rebounded out of negative territory.

In corporate news, Bank of America (BAC 16.10, +0.38) announced that it has priced shares at $15 each in an offering to raise $19.3 billion. The company had previously stated it would look to raise $18.8 billion.DJ30 +18.97 NASDAQ +14.32 SP500 +4.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1896/1.37 bln/760 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2057/761 mln/899

12:30 pm : The major indices have stabilized near the unchanged mark. The decline has been broad-based.

Energy, materials and utilities are now all trading in the red.DJ30 -7.48 NASDAQ +8.44 SP500 +1.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1781/1.25 bln/855 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1876/702 mln/1070

12:00 pm : The stock market has surrendered nearly all of its gains so that it now trades with a fractional gain. For the third straight session, stocks have failed to hold fresh 2009 highs, which were each set in early trade.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar continues to appreciate. That has the Dollar Index up a robust 1.0%.

A stronger dollar has been a frequent detractor of the stock market's gains during recent months. Stocks initially looked as if they had broken free from the greenback's grip this morning; both stocks and the dollar advanced in the wake of a pleasing jobs report. DJ30 -10.96 NASDAQ +6.73 SP500 +1.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1773/1.14 bln/824 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1833/644 mln/1083

11:30 am : The major equity averages continue to trade with healthy gains, but their descent continues. In fact, the downside move has accelerated and taken the three major indices below their opening levels.

Selling has become particularly strong against materials stocks. The sector is now down 1.4%. Utilities (-0.7%) and energy (-0.1%) are the only other two sectors to trade with losses, though.DJ30 +37.94 NASDAQ +21.17 SP500 +6.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1985/913 mln/615 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2163/525 mln/746

11:00 am : Stocks recently handed back a chunk of their gains, but they continue to trade well into positive territory. Industrials continue to make up the best performing sector; they are up 1.9% at the moment.

Materials stocks have fallen into the red, though. The sector had been up as much as 1.5%, but it now trades with a 0.5% loss. Its turnabout comes as gold prices plummet. The yellow metal is now down 3.2% to $1178.90 per ounce.

Oil prices have also turned lower. Crude contracts had priced oil more than 1% higher just a half hour ago, but oil now trades with a 0.1% loss at $76.40 per barrel. That downturn has taken the energy sector to a 0.2% loss after it was up as much as 2.0% in the early going.DJ30 +90.84 NASDAQ +33.37 SP500 +11.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2058/738 mln/494 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2332/431 mln/551

10:30 am : Commodities are catching mixed interest in the wake of a better-than-expected monthly jobs report. The action has the CRB Commodity Index up a modest 0.3%.

Oil is faring quite as well traders speculate about the health of the economy after learning that November nonfarm payrolls fell by just 11,000 -- the smallest amount in two years. Crude contracts were last quoted 1.4% higher at $77.55 per barrel. Ahead of the jobs report, oil futures prices had been lower in electronic trade.

Meanwhile, natural gas prices are up 1.9% to $4.54 per contract.

Precious metals, a traditional safe haven, have fallen sharply out of favor. Gold was last quoted at $1191.40 per ounce, down 2.1% as it continues its pullback from the record high of $1227.50 per ounce set in the previous session. Silver prices have pulled back from the 2009 high of $19.50 per ounce set in the previous session. Prices were last quoted 2.2% lower at $18.72 per ounce. DJ30 +121.37 NASDAQ +38.48 SP500 +15.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2051/561 mln/454 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2449/326 mln/404

10:00 am : Stocks have steadied their ascent since establishing a fresh high for 2009. Still, the S&P 500 continues to sport its best single-session percentage gain in three weeks.

Support remains broad-based as 99% of the components in the S&P 500 trade higher. Gains are strong, too, as eight of the 10 major sectors climb more than 1%. The industrial sector is up more than any other, though; it currently sports a 2.1% gain.

Factory orders for October increased 0.6%, which is better than the flat reading that had been widely expected. However, the figure isn't quite as strong as September's upwardly revised 1.6% increase.

Early movers: Trading up -- BIG +15.1%, CBD +9.1%, CAGC +8.4%, LDK +8.4%, NLST +8.3%, MRVL +8.2%; Trading down -- TTWO -32.3%, ZIOP -16.9%, SWHC -14.8%, GSS -11%, NSU -7.3%, FNSR -6.8%

Advancing Sectors: Industrials (2.1%), Tech (+1.7%), Financials (+1.7%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.6%), Energy (+1.6%), Telecom (+1.2%), Health Care (+1.2%), Consumer Staples (+1.2%), Materials (+0.7%), Utilities (+0.7%)
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +136.41 NASDAQ +38.57 SP500 +17.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2030/333 mln/373 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2470/209 mln/317

09:45 am : Broad-based buying in the first few minutes of trade has sent the stock market to a fractionally better 2009 high. The test, though, is whether stocks can hold the gains; during each of the two previous sessions stocks logged new highs, but failed to sustain the levels as pressure mounted late.

This session's buying comes in the face of a stronger dollar. Both stocks and the greenback have been bid higher by investors excited about the latest nonfarm payrolls figure, which showed a much smaller than expected job loss tally of 11,000 for November. That marked the lowest job loss total in two years.

Amid broad support for stocks, traditional safe havens like Treasuries and gold have fallen sharply out of favor. As such, the benchmark 10-year Note is down 25 ticks -- that has lifted its yield to 3.48%. Meanwhile, gold prices are down 2.0% to $1193.00 per ounce.DJ30 +115.18 NASDAQ +36.87 SP500 +17.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2007/195 mln/314 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2444/138 mln/272

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +14.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +22.80. Thanks to some pleasing monthly unemployment figures, stocks are positioned for an appreciably higher start to the session. The bid will likely bring the stock market's 52-week highs back into play. The November jobs numbers have also helped lift the U.S. dollar, which now sports a gain of 0.6% against competing currencies after it had been down roughly 0.3% less than one hour ago. Despite the greenback's gain, oil prices have made their way to a 0.9% gain to trade at $77.15 per barrel. Gold hasn't been so fortunate, though; the precious metal is down 2.1% to $1191.30 per ounce.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +11.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.00. In Europe, Britain's FTSE is up 0.7%, helped by a pleasing U.S. jobs report. Banks continue to sport losses, though. Meanwhile, miners and energy plays are up as BP (BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) advance. BHP Billiton (BHP) is also strong. In Germany, the DAX is currently up 1.1%. E.ON is outperforming. In France, the CAC is currently up 1.4%. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei gained 0.5% to settle above 10,000 for the first time in five weeks. The advance also helped it log a 10.4% weekly gain, its biggest weekly gain in more than a year. Exporters were strong again. That favored Canon (CAJ). However, Takefuji fell amid news that it slashed lending to save cash after credit downgrades complicated the lender's ease to raise funds. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng slipped 0.2%. Banks and property issues led the slide. According to the IMC, Hong Kong should step up tightening of bank lending to curb chances for asset bubbles. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 1.6% higher. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index closed 0.1% lower.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +13.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.80. Stock futures have spiked following news that nonfarm payrolls fell by 11,000 in November. The figure is far better than the 125,000 job losses that had been expected. The better-than-expected figure is also an improvement from the previous month's upwardly revised 111,000 job loss tally. In light of the numbers, unemployment now stands at 10.0%, which is below the 10.2% that was expected and also registered in October. The average work week came in at 33.2 hours, which is above the 33.1 hours that had been expected and up from the 33.0 hours that were registered in October. Average hourly earnings for November increased 0.1% month-over-month. That wasn't quite as strong as the 0.2% increase that had been expected, nor was it as strong as the 0.3% increase that was registered in the previous month.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.00. Despite a weak close to the previous session, stock futures are flat this morning. The tepid tone comes as the U.S. dollar weakens against a basket of foreign currencies. The calm also comes before the pivotal monthly nonfarm payrolls report, which is due at the bottom of the hour. Factor orders data for October will follow at 10:00 AM ET. There have been a handful of better-than-expected earnings announcements for participants to consider. In particular, Marvell (MRVL) topped the consensus by bringing in an adjusted $0.35 per share for the third quarter and went on to issue upside guidance. Its shares are up 7% to $17.70 each in premarket trade. However, Bank of America (BAC), which had supported an early bid to the previous session, is under pressure after it announced that it has priced shares at $15 each in an offering to raise $19.3 billion. The company had previously stated it would look to raise $18.8 billion. Its stock was last quoted nearly 3% lower at $15.30 per share in premarket trade.

06:19 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.30.

06:19 am : Nikkei...10022.59...+44.90...+0.50%. Hang Seng...22498.15...-55.70...-0.30%.

06:19 am : FTSE...5278.96...-34.00...-0.60%. DAX...5743.70...-26.70...-0.50%.

M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Go Back To TheStrategyLab.com Homepage


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