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 Post subject: November 24th Tuesday 2009 Emini ES ($ES_F) points +40.50
PostPosted: Tue Nov 24, 2009 4:55 pm 
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Written By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip involving WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis) because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=375

Quote:
I had a perfect trading day (no losers) today which is very rare for me considering that I put more weight on position size management than win:loss ratios. I mainly exploited a key change in supply/demand between 0931am - 0932am and then used it to understand the price action for the remainder of the trading day with the key economic events.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their efforts in trade signals while ignoring the impact on their trading results via market experience, discipline, money management, team collaboration, proper trading enviornment (home or office), market psychology, trader psychology (trading habits/routine and personal lifestyle). If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +40.50 Emini ES ($ES_F) points

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Stocks End Choppy Day Lower
Wall Street seesaws in a volatile trading session on weaker GDP reading and mixed housing report, one day after the Dow surged to a 13-month high.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: November 24, 2009: 6:16 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks ended a volatile session with modest losses Tuesday, as the Fed's improved outlook and some signs of improvement in housing tempered a weaker revision on economic growth released in the morning.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 17 points, or 0.2%. The Dow ended the previous session at its highest level since Oct. 2, 2008.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 7 points, or 0.3%, while the S&P 500 (SPX) was barely changed.

Stocks slipped Tuesday morning after a report showed third-quarter GDP grew at a slower pace than initially reported. But the market cut losses in the afternoon as the dollar went from mixed to weak, a boon for commodity stocks and the stocks of multinational companies that benefit from a weak currency.

The economic forecast attached to the minutes from the last Federal Reserve policy meeting also helped investors recover from bigger morning losses.

Nonetheless, stocks aren't likely to advance in this thinly-traded pre-Thanksgiving week, said David Levy, portfolio manager at Kenjol Capital Management.

"Stocks have had a massive run off the March lows and some participants are going to want to lock in profits ahead of the holiday," he said. In addition, investors will be awaiting the results from Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving and the start of the crucial holiday shopping period, he said.

Since bottoming at a 12-year low on March 9, the Dow has gained 59.4% as of Tuesday's close. In that same period, the Nasdaq gained 69% and the S&P 500 gained nearly 64%.

Trading was volatile and trading volume was low Tuesday, a trend likely to continue through the holiday-shortened trading week. All financial markets are closed Thursday for Thanksgiving. Stocks trade in an abbreviated session Friday.

Market breadth was light. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners eight to seven on volume of 960 million shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers eight to five on volume of 1.88 billion shares.

Wednesday brings reports on personal income and spending, durable goods orders and new home sales, all for October. The weekly jobless claims report is also on tap.

Fed forecast: The Fed lifted its estimate for growth next year and cut its forecast for the unemployment rate. However, the central bank also lifted its forecast on the unemployment rate for 2011 and 2012, with job growth likely to be modest amid a slowly-recovering economy.

GDP: The broadest measure of the nation's economic growth grew at a slower pace last quarter than initially thought, adding to bets that the recovery will be sluggish.

GDP grew at a 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That figure met analysts' estimates but was short of the 3.5% initially reported.

Housing: Home prices rose 3.1% in the third quarter versus the second, but remained almost 9% lower versus a year ago, according to an S&P/Case-Shiller study of the 20 largest metropolitan areas.

Prices rose 0.3% in September versus August, but fell versus a year ago.

Confidence: The third big economic report of the morning was the Consumer Confidence index from the Conference Board. The index rose to 49.5 in November from 48.7 in October versus forecasts for a reading of 47.5.

Corporate news: After the close Monday, Dow component Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly earnings of $1.14 per share, in line with its raised forecast released last week. The computer maker reported a drop in revenue. HP also said that it was tripling its share repurchase program to $12 billion.

World markets: Global markets were mostly weaker. In Europe, London's FTSE 100, the German DAX and France's CAC 40 all lost about 0.2% in late trading. Asian markets tumbled.

Currency and commodities: The dollar slipped against the euro and the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for January delivery fell $1.11 to settle at $76.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for December delivery rose $1.90 to settle at $1,166.60 an ounce, a new record settle. Gold touched a record trading high of $1,174 in the previous session.

Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.31% from 3.33% Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Image

Yahoo! Finance

3:30 pm : Despite a mixed finish for commodities, the CRB Commodity Index has fallen a considerable 1.0% this session.

Oil was the primary drag on the CRB. Prices for crude fell 1.9% to $76.10 per barrel. Meanwhile, December contracts for natural gas made a fractional gain to close at $4.49 per contract, but prices for January contracts settled fractionally lower at $4.78 each.

Gold prices continue to garner support, though it was modest. The yellow metal made its way fractionally higher to $1166.80 per ounce, but it never returned to the all-time high of $1174 per ounce that was set in the previous session.

As for silver, prices for the precious metal fell 0.4% to $18.46 per ounce.DJ30 -11.34 NASDAQ -6.90 SP500 -0.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1020/1.52 bln/1672 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1310/672 mln/1676

3:00 pm : Stocks continue to improve their position as they enter this session's final hour of trade. The upturn has taken the S&P 500 to a fractional gain, but the Dow remains stuck at the neutral line and the Nasdaq is still contending with a modest loss.

Energy has been a primary leader for the late move. The sector is currently up 0.4% after spending nearly the entire morning in negative territory. Energy's advance comes as oil well services and equipment stocks provide particular support to the sector; as such, Schlumberger (SLB 65.43, +0.80) and Haliburton (HAL 30.68. +0.24) are up handsomely. Their gains come even though oil prices settled pit trade nearly 2% lower at $76.10 per barrel. DJ30 -3.93 NASDAQ -5.14 SP500 +0.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1037/1.41 bln/1648 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1340/617 mln/1647

2:25 pm : The major indices remain in negative territory, but have pared some losses as five of the ten sectors trade with gains.

Meanwhile, the dollar index (-0.1%) trades with a slight loss and crude prices slide 2.2%.DJ30 -18.37 NASDAQ -10.46 SP500 -0.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 786/1.22 bln/1903 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1097/533 mln/1897

2:05 pm : Stocks are still stuck in negative territory as they contend with modest selling pressure. The relatively downbeat tone has held steady following the release of the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting.

The minutes from the November 4 FOMC meeting indicate that the Fed raised its GDP target for 2009 to the range -0.4% to -0.1% from the range -1.5% to -1.0%. The Fed also said the fall in the dollar has been orderly and reflects unwinding of safe haven demand during the financial recovery.DJ30 -47.69 NASDAQ -14.01 SP500 -3.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 753/1.18 bln/1900 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1041/523 mln/1929

1:35 pm : Results from an auction of 5-year Treasuries attracted a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.81, which is the highest bid-to-cover of the year for this maturity. The benchmark 10-year Note has made its way a few ticks higher in the wake of the announcement; it now yields 3.34%, largely unchanged from earlier levels.

Meanwhile, stocks continue to trade with modest losses. Weakness is rather broad based, though. As such, decliners outnumber advancing issues by 2-to-1 in the S&P 500.DJ30 -37.72 NASDAQ -12.23 SP500 -2.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 815/1.09 bln/1827 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1092/483 mln/1871

1:00 pm : An in-line third quarter GDP revision and an in-line quarterly report from Hewlett-Packard have failed to inspire participants. As a result, stocks have spent the entire session trading with modest losses.

A better-than-expected consumer confidence reading of 49.5 for November helped stocks trim their losses in the early going, but that was short lived.

According to the second official reading of third quarter GDP, economic output increased 2.8% in the third quarter, as expected. Personal consumption was revised downward to reflect a 2.9% increase, which is not as strong as the 3.2% increase that was widely expected.

Dow component Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 50.06, -0.96) brought little surprise to participants by unveiling last evening quarterly earnings of $1.14 per share, which reflected its preannouncement. The company also affirmed an in-line outlook, which it had recently raised. Still, the stock has been contending with sellers for the entire session.

A fluctuating dollar has limited leadership in the broader market. The greenback had been fractionally lower in the early going, but has since bounced to trade with a slight gain. That move was especially problematic for materials stocks, which have also been hampered by declines among commodities prices amid the greenback's rebound. Materials stocks are currently down 0.9%.

Financials are also down 0.9%, though. The sector's weakness has hampered any of the broader market's attempts to pare losses. DJ30 -47.62 NASDAQ -13.38 SP500 -3.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 800/1.03 bln/1819 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1036/447 mln/1914

12:30 pm : Dow component Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 50.06, -0.96) has been a steady laggard this entire session as a lack of positive surprises in its latest quarterly report has given way to selling pressure. The company announced last evening quarterly earnings of $1.14 per share, which is in-line with its preannouncement. The company also went on to affirm an in-line outlook, which had recently been raised.

Other earnings announcements that have received less coverage include the latest results from H.J. Heinz (HNZ 43.18, +0.01), which posted better-than-expected adjusted earnings of $0.76 per share for its latest quarter. The company also raised its outlook for fiscal 2010.

Fellow food processing outfit Hormel Foods (HRL 38.16, -0.73) topped the consensus earnings estimate by bringing in $0.77 per share and even issued upside guidance. The company went one more step by raising its annual dividend to $0.84 per share from $0.76 per share.DJ30 -41.80 NASDAQ -11.57 SP500 -3.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 839/952 mln/1759 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1074/412 mln/1862

12:00 pm : Materials stocks continue to grapple with stiff selling, which has taken the sector to a 0.9% loss. It is not alone there, though; financials are also down 0.9%. The financial sector's weakness stems from pressure against diversified banks (-0.8%), but especially from losses among diversified financial services stocks (-1.5%). Regional banks had been grappling with considerable pressure, but during recent action they managed to turn losses in excess of 1% into a more modest decline of 0.4%.

Meanwhile, telecom stocks have more than halved their gains. The sector is currently up 0.5% after sporting a gain of roughly 1.3% at its session high. Still, integrated telecom (+0.8%) continues to show strength.DJ30 -45.20 NASDAQ -12.01 SP500 -3.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 788/868 mln/1794 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1027/374 mln/1870

11:30 am : After an upward move toward the neutral line, stocks have started to add back to their losses. The reversal comes as the U.S. dollar garners support and makes its way to a 0.2% gain against a basket of foreign currencies.

In addition to the broader market, the greenback's bounce has undercut commodities prices. That has the CRB Commodity Index down a sharp 1.1%. Amid the slide in commodities and the broader equity market, the materials sector has been left to grapple with particularly stiff pressure. The sector is now down 1.1%. DJ30 -51.92 NASDAQ -13.07 SP500 -4.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 711/777 mln/1838 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 924/331 mln/1943

11:00 am : The major indices have trimmed their losses so that the S&P 500 is less than two points away from positive territory. The upturn has been particularly kind to telecom stocks, which are now the best performing sector as they sport a 1.2% gain. That advance extends the sector's 2.6% gain from the previous session.

Still, with just 3%, telecom makes up the smallest share of the S&P 500's market weight. That has kept the sector from providing much in terms of actual leadership.

Meanwhile, financials are creating a considerable drag. The sector makes up some 14% of the S&P 500's market weight, second only to tech's 19% weighting, and is down 0.8%.DJ30 -28.80 NASDAQ -10.03 SP500 -1.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 750/656 mln/1764 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1013/274 mln/1810

10:30 am : Select commodities are seeing notable weakness and pushing to fresh lows as the US Dollar Index recently rose to new pit trading highs.

January crude oil fell just over $1 in recent trading on the strength in the dollar, pushing it to new session lows of $75.60 per barrel. Currently crude is trading just above those levels at $75.84 per barrel, down 2.2%.

Dec natural gas pushed into negative territory earlier this morning and hit fresh session lows just over an hour ago at $4.361 per MMBtu. Natural gas is currently trading near lows at $4.381 per MMBtu, down 2.1%.

Dec gold is back near the flat line after trading in positive territory this morning, while December silver is displaying much more weakness as it trades just above recently hit lows

of $18.33 per ounce. Currently, gold is trading 30 cents highs at $1165.00 per ounce, while silver is 1.2% lower at $18.39, just above lows of $18.33 per ounce.DJ30 -69.61 NASDAQ -17.50 SP500 -6.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 558/480.8 mln/1883 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 668/204.0 mln/2110

10:00 am : Stock futures have made an abrupt, though modest, rebound on better-than-expected consumer confidence data. Just ahead of "Black Friday," which immediately follows Thanksgiving and is considered one of the busiest days for retailers, the November Consumer Confidence Index came in at 49.5. That was better than the 47.5 that was widely expected, but down from the 48.7 that had been posted in October.

The numbers have helped prop up shares of retailers, which are up with a fractional gain in the face of broader market weakness.

Advancing Sectors: Telecom (+0.6%), Health Care (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Financials (-0.9%), Energy (-0.8%), Industrials (-0.7%), Materials (-0.7%), Tech (-0.7%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.3%), Consumer Staples (-0.2%), Utilities (-0.2%)

Early movers: Trading up -- IWA +24.2%, SEED +11.8%, DSW +10.4%, FEED +9.6%, MDT +7.8%, CBRL +6.9%, ZLC +6.4%; Trading down -- WH -22.4%, NYNY -10.4%, ABIO -9.5%, ING -6.2%DJ30 -48.75 NASDAQ -12.72 SP500 -4.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 561/286 mln/1766 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 581/113 mln/2092

09:45 am : The health care sector and telecom sector are both up 0.4% and are the only two major sectors to sport gains. In turn, the weight of the other sectors' losses have taken the broader market to a moderate loss.

Meanwhile, the Dollar Index continues to trade with a fractional loss, which hasn't done much to support the broader market. It hasn't done much for commodities, either; in turn, the CRB Commodities Index is down 0.3%. DJ30 -30.31 NASDAQ -3.78 SP500 -2.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 801/155 mln/1372 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 891/70 mln/1666

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.30. The second estimate of third quarter GDP proved to be in-line with expectations, while in-line earnings from Dow component Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) have kept stock futures trading relatively flat this morning. In turn, tepid start to the session is expected. Things could remain subdued ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, but there are still plenty of trading catalysts to spur participants into action. At 10:00 AM ET is the latest Consumer Confidence Index and at 1:00 PM ET are the results from an auction of 5-year Notes, while 2:00 PM ET brings the minutes from the FOMC's November 4 meeting.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.30. The S&PCaseShiller Home Price Index for September came in at 146.5, which in-line with the 146.9 that was widely expected. Meanwhile, the 20-city composite for September fell 9.4%, which is worse than the 9.1% decline that many had expected. The latest downturn follows an 11.3% decline in September. The data comes as stock futures move up a few points, but futures continue to point to a flat start for the major U.S. indices. Europe's major bourses recently turned lower so that Germany's DAX now trades with a 0.2% loss. Deutsche Bank (DB) is a primary laggard at the moment. Overall, declining issues outnumber advancers by 2-to-1, despite confrimations that Germany's economic recovery accelerated in the third quarter as its GDP expanded 0.7% from the previous three months. In France, the CAC is down 0.1% as decliners and advancers strike an even balance. Carrefour is a primary leader, but BNP Paribas is a primary leader. Britain's FTSE has managed to muster a fractional gain. Banks are seeing mixed interest as Barclays (BCS) boasts a gain, but HSBC (HBC) and Standard Chartered lag. Lloyds Group (LYG) is also up, though the company priced the largest rights issue ever at a 60% discount to the previous session's closing price. Separately, reports indicate that new industrial orders in the 16 countries that use the euro climbed for the sixth consecutive month in September by rising 1.5% from August. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei fell 1.0% to its lowest close in four months. Banking shares were sold concertedly amid concerns regarding equity raises. However, Fanuc LTD and Daikin Industries were among the primary decliners. Overall, declining issues outnumbered advancers by 5-to-1. Such broad losses came despite news that the Bank of Japan raised its assessment of the nation's broad economy for the third consecutive month, but the economic upgrade doesn't signal a change in the bank's easy monetary stance. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng surrendered 1.5% as many participants took profits in the wake of recent rallies. Chinese banks were also pressured by concerns of capital-raises. According to reports, some regulators want higher capital ratios. Bank of China fell after acknowledging that it is studying ways to raise capital, though it had no immediate plans to do so. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite fell 3.5%. Its B-Shares plunged amid rumors regarding possible mergers of B-shares with the coming international board. According to Dow Jones, China brushed off increasing international pressure for the yuan to appreciate, but officials said the local unit will basically be kept stable while increasing the market's role in setting the yuan's exchange rate. Meanwhile, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index closed 0.3% lower.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.30. Stock futures have surrendered a couple of points in the wake of the second official estimate of third quarter GDP. The data showed an increase of 2.8%, which in-line with what was widely expected, but down from the 3.5% increase that was posted as part of the advance GDP estimate. Personal consumption was revised downward to reflect a 2.9% increase, which is not as strong as the 3.2% increase that was widely expected. Core personal consumption expenditures were revised modestly lower to reflect a 1.3% quarter-over-quarter increase, but that wasn't quite as strong as the 1.4% increase.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.50. Stock futures for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are relatively flat as the U.S. dollar makes a fractional move into the red. Overseas action has also been mixed. That has the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 in a sideways drift, though Asian markets already logged losses, led by a 3.5% drop in the Shanghai Composite after a lack of market-supportive steps from the government sparked profit-taking. Only a few companies have recently been out with earnings results. Among them, though, is Hewlett-Packard (HPQ). The company posted in-line earnings and reaffirmed its outlook. The lack of positive surprise has put moderate pressure on the stock in premarket trade; it was last quoted 0.7% lower at $50.65 per share. There are still plenty of trading catalysts to come. At the bottom of the hour is the second estimate of third quarter GDP, a S&P CaseShiller Home Price Report for September will follow (9:00 AM ET), then the November Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET) and the minutes from the most recent FOMC policy meeting (2:00 PM ET).

06:21 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.80.

06:21 am : Nikkei...9401.58...-96.10...-1.00%. Hang Seng...22423.14...-348.30...-1.50%.

06:21 am : FTSE...5363.51...+8.00...+0.20%. DAX...5799.63...-1.90...0.00.

M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
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