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 Post subject: November 18th Wednesday 2009 Emini ES ($ES_F) points +26.25
PostPosted: Wed Nov 18, 2009 5:28 pm 
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Written By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip involving WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis) because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=367

Quote:
Smoother trading day in comparison to yesterday although both trading days were low volatility trading range days. Main difference today was that I didn't miss any key trade signals like yesterday and I was able to exploit those key trade signals today. Also, it was very helpful that today's lows or almost retest of the lows was within range of a key WRB S/R Zone established near yesterday's lows.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their efforts in trade signals while ignoring the impact on their trading results via market experience, discipline, money management, team collaboration, proper trading enviornment (home or office), market psychology, trader psychology (trading habits/routine and personal lifestyle). If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +26.25 Emini ES ($ES_F) points

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Stocks Hit A Roadblock
Major indexes retreat from 13-month highs after a surprise drop in new home construction fuels concern about the strength of the economic recovery.
By Ben Rooney, CNNMoney.com staff reporter
Last Updated: November 18, 2009: 4:53 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks closed slightly lower Wednesday, paring deeper losses, after a drop in new home construction made investors jittery about the economic recovery and wary profit outlooks weighed on the technology sector.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) was down 11 points, or 0.1%, to close at 10,426.3. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell less than one point to 1,109.8. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite fell (COMP) 10 points, or 0.5%, to 2,193.1.

Stocks opened lower and struggled for most of the day before moving off session lows in the last 30 minutes of trade.

The modest retreat, which came one day after the major indexes closed at their highest levels in 13-months, was sparked by government data that showed initial construction of new single-family homes fell to a six-month low in October.

The unexpected drop came despite government efforts to stimulate the battered housing industry, and highlighted fears that stocks may have gotten ahead of economic reality.

"A lot of people were betting on a housing recovery," said Abigail Doolittle, a portfolio manager at Johnson Illington Advisors. "The decline in construction starts is probably making some people nervous."

Investors were also focused on the outlook for the technology sector after Salesforce.com and Autodesk offered cautious earnings guidance for the fourth quarter.

Tech giant Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) was among leading decliners on the Dow, while Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) bucked the trend.

Shares of Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) rose 3.68% after hedge-fund guru John Paulson reportedly told investors that he expects the stock price to almost double in the next two years.

Meanwhile, the dollar fell broadly against rival currencies, with the euro climbing near $1.50 at one point.

The weak dollar helped push gold prices to another all-time high, while oil prices closed above $79 a barrel.

Investors have looked to the dollar for direction in recent weeks, with a softer greenback normally reflecting a stronger appetite for risky assets such as commodities and stocks.

But with the major indexes up some 30% from the lows of early March, many investors have become reluctant to push the market higher until they see more concrete signs that an economic recovery is underway.

"At the margin, the economic data has been stabilizing," said Lawrence Creatura, a portfolio manager with Federated Clover Investment Advisors. "It's been 'less bad' and that has been enough for investors up to now. Whether 'less bad' continues to be enough remains to be seen."

Analysts said the volume of shares trading hands recently has been low, suggesting that many big investment funds have moved to the sidelines to avoid jeopardizing gains before publishing year-end results.

On the New York Stock Exchange, losers topped winners 3-to-1 on volume of 858 million shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners toped advancers almost 2-to-1 on volume of 1.8 billion shares.

Economy: The government reported that housing starts fell more than 10% to an annual rate of 529,000 in October, the lowest level in six months. An annual rate of 600,000 housing starts was expected, according to a forecast from Briefing.com consensus. The revised rate for September was 592,000.

The government reported that the annual rate of housing permits fell 4% to 552,000 in October, from the revised September rate of 575,000. This was lower than the 580,000 permits expected for October, according to Briefing.com consensus. .

The government also reported its Consumer Price Index, a key measure of inflation, rose 0.3%.

The CPI was expected to rise 0.2% in October, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com.

The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% in October. That was slightly more than the 0.1% increase expected for October, according to Briefing.com consensus.

Companies: Salesforce.com (CRM), which makes Web-based business software, reported third-quarter earnings that were in line with analyst expectations. But the results also showed a slowdown in contracts for new business, which sent shares down more than 3%.

Shares of Autodesk (ADSK) plunged 10% after the maker of computer-aided drafting software forecast fourth-quarter earnings that were below Wall Street's consensus view.

On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) said that it is launching a $500 million initiative aimed at propping up small businesses.

Obama administration officials, including Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, are due to meet Wednesday to address the small business lending drought.

World markets: Japan's Nikkei index finished the session 0.6% lower. Major indexes in Europe closed mixed.

Currency and commodities: The dollar, which has suffered from recent weakness, was down versus all major currencies. The dollar index (DXY), which measures the U.S. currency's value against a basket of rivals, was down 0.3% to 75.14

The price of oil rose 56 cents to end at $79.58 per barrel after hitting a high of $80.33 earlier in the session.

Gold rose $1.80 to settle at another all-time high of $1141.20 an ounce. It also hit a record trading high of $1,149.40 an ounce.

Bonds: Treasury prices fell as investors focused on Wednesday's inflation report. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.36% from 3.32% late Tuesday.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:25 pm : Despite weakness in the U.S. dollar, stocks spent nearly the entire session mired in weakness. Losses remained contained, however.

Participants showed indifference to renewed selling against the greenback, which took the Dollar Index back toward the 52-week lows that it set earlier this week. It settled with a 0.4% loss.

Though the dollar spent the entire session in the red, the broader market struggled to shake free from its own spell of weakness. Large-cap tech issues were among the primary laggards; that caused the Nasdaq to trail the other headline indices.

Financials helped lead the broader market on a late charge back toward the neutral line, though. The sector had outperformed for the entire session and was able to finish with a 0.9% gain. Its strength was rooted in banking issues. As such, the KBW Banking Index advanced 1.4%.

Zimmer Holdings (ZMH 58.03, +1.28) helped the health care sector put together a solid 0.4% gain. Shares of the medical equipment and supplies company were upgraded by analysts at UBS.

Several consumer staples stocks ripped higher late in the session amid news from Daily Telegraph that Reckitt Benckiser is close to announcing a cross-border transaction that is suspected to involve a consumer staples play. The consumer staples sector settled flat, though.

Though the dollar's drop did little for stocks, it helped prop up precious metals prices. Gold futures hit another new all-time high of $1153.40 per ounce, but settled fractionally higher at $1141.20 per ounce.

Oil prices oscillated. Bullish inventory data drove oil prices up more than 1% in midmorning trade, but it then rolled over in midafternoon trade. Crude managed to rebound and close up 0.5% at $79.52 per barrel.

The latest dose of economic data indicated that consumer prices for October increased 0.3%, which is a bit stronger than the 0.2% increase that had been widely expected. Core prices increased 0.2%, which is also bit stronger than the 0.1% monthly increase that had been widely forecast.

Housing starts for October came in at an annualized rate of 529,000, which is below the rate of 600,000 that had been widely expected. Meanwhile, building permits came in at an annualized rate of 552,000, which is a slower pace than the annualized rate of 580,000 that economists, on average, had forecast.

Advancing Sectors: Financials (+0.9%), Health Care (+0.4%), Telecom (+0.2%)
Declining Sectors: Tech (-0.5%), Utilities (-0.5%), Industrials (-0.4%), Energy (-0.3%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.3%), Materials (-0.1%)
Unchanged: Consumer StaplesDJ30 -11.11 NASDAQ -10.64 NQ100 -0.6% R2K -0.4% SP400 -0.5% SP500 -0.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1045/2.00 bln/1629 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1381/1.06 bln/1640

3:30 pm : Broad, but modest gains dissipated in the commodity space as the dollar pared losses in the afternoon.

Still, precious metals held on to marginal gains of 0.3%. Gold futures hit yet another new all-time high at $1153.40 per ounce prior to pulling back. December gold futures closed fractionally higher at $1141.20 per ounce. Meanwhile, December silver futures closed fractionally higher at $18.42 per ounce.

Energy commodities lost 1.2% this session, hampered by losses in natural gas futures. Natural gas futures sold off throughout the session. They closed a staggering 6.2% lower at $4.26 per contract. Crude oil futures dipped into negative territory mid-session but managed to close up 0.5% at $79.52 per barrel.

Soft commodities performed rather well this session. Cocoa futures were especially strong; they closed up 3.9%.DJ30 -27.59 NASDAQ -14.84 SP500 -2.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 921/1.63 bln/1759 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1268/775 mln/1745

3:00 pm : Stocks in the broader market continue to trade with modest losses, but shares of outfit Colgate Palmolive (CL 86.52, +3.68) are suddenly ripping higher amid news from Daily Telegraph that Reckitt Benckiser is close to announcing a multibillion pound cross-border transaction that many suspect will involve a consumer staples play. Consumer staples stocks, as a group, are currently down just 0.1%.DJ30 -41.57 NASDAQ -18.44 SP500 -4.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 860/1.44 bln/1793 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1164/715 mln/1833

2:30 pm : Despite strength among health care stocks (+0.5%) and financials (+0.4%), the broader market remains unable to follow and mired in weakness.

Losses are a bit steeper in the Nasdaq Composite than they are in the broad-based S&P 500, however. The Nasdaq's outsized losses stem from weakness among large-cap tech issues. Weakness in large-cap tech has taken the Nasdaq 100 down to a 0.9% loss.DJ30 -41.64 NASDAQ -17.19 SP500 -3.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 868/1.32 bln/1779 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1180/654 mln/1814

2:00 pm : The health care sector has suddenly made its way to a modest gain of 0.2%. It had been down roughly 0.7% at its session low.

Zimmer Holdings (ZMH 58.11, +1.36) has been a primary leader among health care stocks this session. Shares of the medical equipment and supplies company were upgraded before the open by analysts at UBS.DJ30 -49.96 NASDAQ -20.57 SP500 -4.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 802/1.21 bln/1824 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1132/602 mln/1856

1:30 pm : Stocks recently extended their losses so that they are back near the session lows that were set this morning. Tech and consumer discretionary stocks remain the worst performers; the sectors are down a respective 1.1% and 1.0%.

Energy isn't far behind, though. The sector has shed 0.9%. While broader market weakness had already weighed on the sector, its position was worsened by oil's move to negative ground. Oil contracts are currently being priced 0.3% lower at $78.90 per barrel.

Financials remain positive. The sector is up 0.2%.DJ30 -69.03 NASDAQ -22.39 SP500 -6.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 785/1.12 bln/1829 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1070/554 mln/1913

1:00 pm : Despite a drooping dollar, stocks have been mired in weakness for virtually the entire session. Still, their losses have been moderate.

Stocks have traded in an inverse relationship with the U.S. dollar for several straight weeks, but participants have been largely unfazed by the greenback's 0.4% pullback this session. The move has put the Dollar Index back near 52-week lows, which were set Monday, but declining issues have outnumbered advancers by more than 2-to-1 in the S&P 500 this session. Losses remain modest, though.

Financials have managed to steadily outperform this session, though. The sector is currently up 0.3% and is the only major sector to sport a gain at the moment. Banks have been the primary drivers of the financial sector's success this session. Diversified banks are up 0.8%, while regional banks have tacked on 1.5%.

Materials stocks have managed to limit their losses. The sector is down just 0.1% after surrendering an early gain. Interest in commodities has helped limit the sector's downward move.

Though stocks have largely been unresponsive to a dwindling dollar, the CRB Commodity Index is up 0.5% as gold prices climb 0.5% to $1144.50 per ounce. The yellow metal registered a new record high of $1153.40 per ounce earlier this session.

Oil prices had been up roughly 1% in the minutes following a bullish weekly inventory report, but crude prices have since rolled over so that they now trade with a 0.5% loss at $78.75 per barrel.

Autodesk (ADSK 24.00, -3.00) was among the few companies to recently report earnings results. Despite better-than-expected adjusted earnings, mixed guidance has left the stock to trade as a primary laggard in the broader market.

As for economic announcements, consumer prices picked up a tad more than expected in October, but annualized housing starts and building permits fell well short of expectations. DJ30 -59.86 NASDAQ -20.25 SP500 -5.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 837/1.02 bln/1749 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1145/511 mln/1800

12:30 pm : The broader market remains mired in weakness as participants show little interest in a declining dollar, which has frequently traded in an inverse relationship to stocks during recent months.

This session, the greenback has given up 0.4% of its value relative to a basket of major foreign currencies. That has put the Dollar Index back near 52-week lows. The Dollar Index is down nearly 8% year-to-date. DJ30 -42.62 NASDAQ -17.29 SP500 -3.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 891/926 mln/1694 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1243/462 mln/1695

12:00 pm : The broader market remains in a bit of a funk, but financials continue to sport solid gains. The sector is up 0.7% at the moment; its relative strength reflected by the Financial SPDR Fund (XLF 14.95, +0.09).

Commodities continue to fare well. That has the CRB Commodity Index up 0.9% to trade near highs for the month. Interest in commodities has helped limit losses for the materials sector, which is down just 0.1%. Materials stocks had started the session with modest gains. DJ30 -36.05 NASDAQ -15.73 SP500 -2.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 849/821 mln/1709 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1265/421 mln/1631

11:30 am : The stock market continues to chop along in negative territory with modest losses. Weakness remains widespread, too. As such, declining issues outnumber advancers by 2-to-1 on the S&P 500.

Autodesk (ADSK 24.26, -2.74) is a primary laggard in the S&P 500. The stock's 10% drop this session stems from disappointment over its latest quarterly report, which featured better-than-expected adjusted earnings of $0.27 per share. However, that was overshadowed by mixed earnings guidance for the fourth quarter and fiscal 2010.DJ30 -38.32 NASDAQ -15.49 SP500 -2.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 848/709 mln/1673 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1263/377 mln/1590

11:00 am : Stocks have made their way off of session lows, which corresponded with a loss of 0.7% for the S&P 500, but they have yet to return to striking distance from positive ground.

Financials continue to show strength, though. The sector is now up 0.8% after making a bit of a pullback from its session high. Banks are garnering the most support of the financial issues; that has the KBW Banking Index up 1.4%. DJ30 -34.62 NASDAQ -15.45 SP500 -3.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 829/597 mln/1652 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1264/326 mln/1562

10:30 am : Oil prices had been up a solid 0.7% in the minutes leading up to the latest weekly inventory report, but saw a sudden spike in the report's wake. Crude was last quoted at $79.85 per barrel, up 0.9%. Crude oil inventories for the week ending November 13 had a draw of 887,000, which is a surprise relative to the build of 300,000 barrels that had been widely expected. Gasoline inventories had a draw of 1.76 million barrels, which is more than the draw of 25,000 that analysts had come to expect.

Meanwhile, natural gas prices are under pressure. They were last quoted 2.2% lower at $4.53 each.

Precious metals are faring well this session. Gold was last quoted at $1147.50 per ounce, up 0.7%. It registered a new record high of $1153.40 per ounce in recent trade.

Silver prices were last quoted at $18.39 per ounce, up 1.6%.DJ30 -59.63 NASDAQ -16.72 SP500 -4.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 766/444 mln/1670 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1051/251 mln/1711

10:00 am : After making an early, upward move, stocks have come under renewed pressure, which has put them at morning lows. The move lower has been broad-based, but financials have managed to remain in higher ground -- the sector is up 0.2%.

Though there isn't a single source of weakness that has underpinned the market's recent pullback, losses are steepest among consumer discretionary stocks and tech stocks. The two sectors are both down 0.9%.

Advancing Sectors: Financials (+0.2%)
Declining Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (-0.9%), Tech (-0.9%), Telecom (-0.8%), Industrials (-0.6%), Consumer Staples (-0.5%), Utilities (-0.5%), Energy (-0.4%), Health Care (-0.4%), Materials (-0.2%)

Early mover: Trading up -- NLST +13.4%, CHS +12.4%, LDK +9.2%, PARD +8.1%, VVUS +7.5%; Trading down -- ONCY -19.8%, YONG -10.5%, CNQR -9.9%, DISH -9.5%, EXEL -9%, NANO -8.3%, ADSK -7.6%DJ30 -65.53 NASDAQ -14.43 SP500 -5.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 717/260 mln/1602 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1015/158 mln/1677

09:45 am : The major indices started the session with modest losses, but financial stocks and materials stocks have provided the broader market with leadership and helped it improve its position. Financials and materials are currently up a respective 0.7% and 0.6%.

Strength among financial stocks stems from diversified financial services companies like Bank of America (BAC 16.18, +0.41). The stock is benefiting from reports that hedge fund Paulson & Co. has bet that shares of BAC will nearly double by the end of 2012.

Meanwhile, materials stocks are being led by continued strength among fertilizer and agricultural chemicals (+2.6%).DJ30 -8.69 NASDAQ -6.12 SP500 +0.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 896/750 mln/1296 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1360/100 mln/1241

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.50. A flat to fractionally lower start for the broader equity market looks to be in order. The rather bland tone comes amid a lack of overall news flow, though reports that annualized housing starts and building permits came in below expectations did cause a mildly negative response. Consumer prices were up slightly more than the consensus forecast, but they were still generally in-line with expectations. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index has moved off of its morning lows so that it now trades with a 0.3% loss. Its weakness earlier this morning hadn't done much to spur interest in stocks, though it has helped give a lift to commodities prices -- the CRB Commodity Index is up 0.4% to trade near its fractionally improved monthly high.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.80. Stock futures are down a few points from earlier levels, but they continue to point to a flat start for the major U.S. indices. Meanwhile, Europe's primary equity averages are up comfortably, though they did ease back a bit in the wake of a recent dose of U.S. economic data, which featured generally in-line consumer prices and slower-than-expected housing starts and building permits figures. At the moment, Britain's FTSE is up 0.3%. BHP Billiton (BHP) is a primary leader, while Rio Tinto (RTP), and Xstrata are also showing strength. In Germany, the DAX is currently up 0.7%. Steel stock ThyssenKrupp and smaller competitor Salzgitter both look strong. However, Bayer has been under pressure following news that International Petroleum Investment denied interest in the drugs and chemicals maker as an acquisition target. Meanwhile, France's CAC is sporting a 0.6% gain. Financials are providing primary support to the move. The EuroStoxx is currently up 0.7%. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.5% in Wednesday trade. That put it at a 6-week closing low. Real estate stocks were among the worst performers. Tokyo Tatemono slid amid plans to raise cash via a share offering. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MTU) reported after the close that it is also looking to issue new shares to raise capital. The company also posted a near 60% spike in quarterly profits. Its shares, along with those of several other banking and financial outfits, had fallen succumbed to pressure ahead of the announcement. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng eased back 0.3% amid volatile trade. HSBC (HBC) proved to be a considerable drag. Bank of China also slid, though. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite managed to advance 0.6%, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.1%.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.30. Stock futures have dipped in the wake of the latest dose of data. The Consumer Price Index for October increased 0.3%, which is a bit stronger than the 0.2% increase that had been widely expected. It also marks a pick up from the 0.2% increase that was posted in September. Excluding food and energy, consumer prices increased 0.2%, which is also bit stronger than the 0.1% monthly increase that had been widely forecast. Core prices had climbed 0.2% in September. Separately, housing starts for October came in at an annualized rate of 529,000, which is below the rate of 600,000 that had been widely expected. Data for September was revised slightly higher to reflect an annualized rate of 592,000 starts. Meanwhile, building permits came in at an annualized rate of 552,000, which is a slower pace than the annualized rate of 580,000 that economists, on average, had forecast. The pace for October marked a deceleration from the annualized rate of 575,000 building permits that was registered for September.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.80. Stock futures are currently flat after chopping along without direction earlier this morning. The lack of overall direction comes amid a lack of news flow, though participants will get a flurry of data at the bottom of the hour. That's when October consumer price data and October figures for housing starts and building permits are due. In the meantime, participants continue to keep a focus on the U.S. dollar, which has handed back most of its gains from the previous session. That has the Dollar Index down 0.5% and back near 52-week lows. The dollar's drop has helped prop up commodities prices. Gold has set another record high; it hit $1149.60 per ounce within the past hour, but it is currently up 0.7% at $1147.10 per ounce. Oil futures prices are up 0.9% to $79.85 per barrel ahead of pit trade. Oil prices could see some increased volatility with the release of weekly inventory figures at 10:30 AM ET.

06:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.50.

06:32 am : Nikkei...9676.80...-53.10...-0.60%. Hang Seng...22840.33...-73.80...-0.30%.

06:32 am : FTSE...5366.87...+20.90...+0.40%. DAX...5833.54...+55.10...+1.00%.

M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Go Back To TheStrategyLab.com Homepage


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