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 Post subject: November 17th Tuesday 2009 Emini ES ($ES_F) points -1.50
PostPosted: Tue Nov 17, 2009 8:39 pm 
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Written By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip involving WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis) because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=364

Quote:
Today was a tough low volatility range trading day that resulted in a lossing effort. The key trade today was the one I missed (Long signal) several minutes after I left to go outside to install a new nightime motion detector. The miss trade most likely would have resulted in 2 - 5 points per contract on a large size (6 contract) position. With that said, don't have much more to say other than I need to keep tonights journal notes small because I need to go outside and finish doing more light installation...market will be here tomorrow...small loss is not something I will lose sleep over.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their efforts in trade signals while ignoring the impact on their trading results via market experience, discipline, money management, team collaboration, proper trading enviornment (home or office), market psychology, trader psychology (trading habits/routine and personal lifestyle). If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: -1.50 Emini ES ($ES_F) points

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Stocks At 13-Month Highs After Modest Gains
After languishing for most of the session, the major indexes finish at their highest level since October 2008.
By Ben Rooney, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: November 17, 2009: 6:08 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks recovered from early losses Tuesday, closing at 13-month highs for the second day in a row, as strength in commodity-linked shares offset weakness in the retail sector.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose about 30 points, or 0.3%, to close at 10,437.42. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained 1 point to close above the key 1,100 level. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) advanced 0.3% to end at 2,203.78.

All three indexes are at their highest levels since October 2008.

Stocks opened lower and struggled for most of the day as the dollar regained ground against rival currencies, reflecting a decreased appetite for risky assets.

The tone improved in the last few hours of trading as oil and gold prices reversed direction. Oil closed above $79 a barrel, while gold edged up to settle at a fresh all-time high.

The rebound in commodity prices boosted shares of energy and materials companies. But gains were limited by weakness in the retail sector after Home Depot and Target offered cautious earnings outlooks.

Tuesday's economic news was mixed. Government data showed inflation at the wholesale level remains subdued, while industrial production was weaker than expected in October.

Ryan Larson, senior equity trader at Voyager Asset Management, said the stock market continues to look to the dollar for direction.

"The main story has been the dollar trade," he said. "When the dollar is weak, investors take on more risk. If it's strong, they take the risk off."

The dollar has wallowed near a 15-month low against rival currencies in recent weeks as investors take advantage of U.S. interest rates near zero percent to fund bets in more risky stock and commodities markets.

However, after pushing the major indexes up some 30% from the lows of early March, investors have become wary of placing big bets as the economic outlook remains cloudy.

"The economy is growing, but shows a loss of momentum given the recent round of economic and corporate data," said Nick Kalivas, vice president of financial research at MF Global.

Investors will digest reports on consumer prices and initial construction of new homes Wednesday morning. Later in the week, the government will report on the number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits.

Stocks rallied Monday as investors bet on the weak dollar and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said interest rates will remain low amid a slow recovery.

Economy: The government reported that the Producer Price Index, the key measure of inflation for manufacturers, edged up 0.3% in October. Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell 0.6%.

The PPI was expected to have risen 0.5% for the month, according to a consensus of economist opinion from Briefing.com. The core was expected to have edged up 0.1% in October.

Before the start of market trading, the government also reported that industrial production rose 0.1% last month versus a forecasted 0.4% increase. In September, production rose 0.7%. Capacity utilization rose by 0.2 percentage point to 70.7%, a rate slightly below economists' expectations for 70.8%.

Companies: Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500) reported a decline in third-quarter earnings to 41 cents per share from 45 cents in the year-ago quarter. While the results were better than 36 cent per share profit that analysts had expected, the company said it expects earnings for the full year to be down 13%.

Discount retailer Target (TGT, Fortune 500) reported an 18% increase in third-quarter profit, helped by gains in the company's credit card portfolio. But Target, which had suffered declining profits for the last eight quarters, remained cautious about the outlook for holiday spending.

TJX (TJX, Fortune 500), which owns the T.J. Maxx and Marshalls chains, reported a larger-than-expected quarterly profit on increased consumer demand for discount products. The company said it expects profit from continuing operations of 65 cents to 71 cents per share in the fourth quarter. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters areforecasting a profit of 71 cents per share in the fourth-quarter.

On the higher end, Saks (SKS) reported a quarterly profit, surprising analysts who were expecting the company to report a loss. However, the results were driven mostly by cost-cutting, and the company offered a cautious outlook.

International markets: The Nikkei and the Hang Seng each closed lower by a fraction of a percent. European markets ended with losses of less than 1%.

Other markets: Treasury prices rose, with the yield on the 10-year note falling to 3.33%.

The weak dollar recovered a little Tuesday. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of rivals, was up 0.7% to 75.38 from 74.92.

Oil prices rose 24 cents to settle at $79.14 barrel in New York.

The price of gold closed at an all-time high of $1,139.40 an ounce, up 20 cents from Monday's record close of $1,139.80.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:25 pm : The major indices overcame broad losses to finish incrementally higher as the U.S. dollar handed back a portion of its gains this session. The greenback's pullback helped materials stocks offset weakness among retailers.

After falling to a fresh 52-week low in the previous session, the Dollar Index rebounded as much as 1% before easing back to a 0.5% gain. The greenback's bounce gave the equity market an excuse to take a breather after setting new 2009 highs in the previous session. However, stocks showed a willingness to push even higher as the dollar pared its gains; in turn, stocks trimmed their losses to find higher ground late in the session.

Materials stocks garnered particular support late. The sector settled with a 0.9% gain after being down nearly 1%. The sector's turnaround stemmed from a rebound in commodity prices, which took the CRB Commodity Index to a 0.2% gain, and news from a regulatory filing that showed George Soros added 1 million shares of Potash (POT 110.60, +6.42) to his existing stake.

Though the materials sector showed strength, it didn't hold much sway with the broader market; the sector represents a mere 3.6% of the S&P 500's overall market weight. Still, the advance by materials stocks helped mitigate weakness among retailers. Shares of retailers slid 1.4%, even though Home Depot (HD 26.99, -0.66), TJX Companies (TJX 38.91, -0.61), Saks (SKS 6.67, +0.26), and Pacific Sunwear (PSUN 3.88, -1.13) all bested earnings expectations. TJX even went on to raise its earnings outlook, while Home Depot delivered an upside forecast. Pacific Sunwear's outlook proved displeasing, though; that resulted in the stock's sharpest single-session percentage slide of the year.

Though stocks settled the session with fractional gains, each of the three major indices was able to book new 2009 closing highs. The Nasdaq Composite was led by large-cap tech issues, while wireless services stocks provided leadership to the S&P 500. The Dow was led by Exxon Mobil (XOM 75.03, +0.60), which was upgraded by analysts at Barclays.

Data did little for stocks for the second straight session. Producer prices increased 0.3% in October, but that is a slower pace than the 0.5% increase that had been expected. Core producer prices fell 0.6% in October. A 0.1% increase had been expected.

Meanwhile, industrial production for October increased 0.1%, which is weaker than the 0.4% that had been expected. Capacity utilization came in at 70.7%, which is essentially in step with the consensus.

Among the day's economic speakers, Reuters reported that Richmond Fed President Lacker said that sluggishness in pockets of the economy should not deter the Fed from beginning to remove its extraordinary level of support. Though not a new observation, Lacker said he expects the economy to grow at a reasonable rate next year. He did indicate, though, that he won't look at the removal of monetary stimulus until economic growth is strong enough and well-enough established.

Advancing Sectors: Materials (+0.9%), Telecom (+0.6%), Tech (+0.5%), Consumer Staples (+0.2%), Financials (+0.1%), Health Care (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (-0.7%), Utilities (-0.4%)
Unchanged: Industrials, EnergyDJ30 +30.46 NASDAQ +5.93 NQ100 +0.3% R2K -0.1% SP400 -0.2% SP500 +1.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1.23 bln/1.90 bln/1416 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1347/971 mln/1653

3:30 pm : The market remains near the unchanged level. Consumer discretionary stocks are the primary laggard, currently down 0.9%. The materials sector is providing the most support, now up 0.8%.

As such, precious metals pared early losses this session, despite steadfast strength in the dollar. Both gold and silver futures opened the pit trade lower but worked their way back to the unchanged level by the end of the session. December gold futures finished less than a dollar higher at $1139.40 per ounce, within striking distance of all-time highs set yesterday. December silver futures finished a penny lower at $18.39 per ounce.

Crude oil futures spent the majority of the session below the $79 level, down marginally. The December futures attempted to approach the $80 level but faded back toward the $79 level before the conclusion of the pit trade. They closed up 0.3% at $79.10 per barrel.

December Natural gas futures opened the pit trade at a session high if $4.73 per contract. Gains were short lived, though. Natural gas futures sold off at the open of the pit trade and remained in negative territory for greater part of the session's duration. They closed down 1.5% at $4.54 per contract.DJ30 +20.78 NASDAQ +4.30 SP500 +0.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1203/1.57 bln/1449 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1292/695 mln/1698

3:00 pm : The Nasdaq and Dow continue to drift along the unchanged mark, but the S&P 500 has chopped further into negative territory so that its losses broaden. As such, declining issues now outnumber advancers by 3-to-2 in the broader market. DJ30 +4.61 NASDAQ +1.47 SP500 -2.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1106/1.45 bln/1523 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1197/631 mln/1787

2:30 pm : Since flirting with positive territory, the S&P 500 has pulled back a bit. Its losses remain modest, however.

Materials stocks have managed to hold on to solid gains. The sector is currently up 0.4%. Telecom is also up 0.4%.

Tech is the only other major sector currently sporting a gain; it is up just 0.1%. Still, that gain comes even though decliners outnumber advancers by 2-to-1 in the tech sector. DJ30 -1.74 NASDAQ -0.61 SP500 -2.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1079/1.35 bln/1547 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1185/581 mln/1791

2:00 pm : The Dow and Nasdaq Composite have made their way into positive territory, but the S&P 500 has encountered resistance at the neutral line. Though the S&P 500 has stalled, its recent upturn has put it at a fresh session high.

Despite a what has been largely listless action, the recent upturn by stocks comes in the face of a stronger dollar. After falling to a fresh 52-week low in the previous session, the greenback has garnered support and made its way to a gain of 0.6%. It had been up as much as 1.0% earlier in this session.DJ30 +19.27 NASDAQ +2.62 SP500 -0.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1134/1.23 bln/1457 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1306/529 mln/1650

1:30 pm : The Dow is drifting along the unchanged mark as it tries to make its way higher amid leadership from Exxon Mobil (XOM 74.89, +0.46), which was recently upgraded by analysts at Barclays. Despte the integrated energy giant's strength, the broader energy sector continues to trade in the red; it is currently down 0.2%.

The Nasdaq recently made its own move to the neutral line, but it was rebuffed so that it continues to trade with a slight loss. As for the broader S&P 500, it hasn't come within striking distance of positive territory since the early going.DJ30 -1.51 NASDAQ -1.89 SP500 -2.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1059/1.14 bln/1538 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1145/492 mln/1801

1:05 pm : A stronger dollar has caused stocks to slip from the 2009 highs that were registered during the previous session, but losses have generally been modest.

Though stocks have spent virtually the entire session chopping along in negative territory, their losses have been contained. Only the consumer discretionary sector (-1.4%) is trading with a loss in excess of 1%. Its weakness stems from a 2.2% decline in shares of retailers, even though Home Depot (HD 26.60, -1.05), TJX Companies (TJX 38.25, -1.27), Saks (SKS 6.67, +0.26), and Pacific Sunwear (PSUN 3.75, -1.26) all bested earnings expectations.

Despite the broader market's discouragement by the greenback's 0.7% gain this session, materials stocks have managed to make their way to positive territory as commodities climb in the face of a stronger dollar. As the CRB Commodity Index reversed its morning loss to trade with a 0.1% gain, the materials sector has found itself trading with a 0.1% gain of its own.

Oil prices have shown particular resilience. Oil prices started the session in the red, but have since climbed to a 0.5% gain at $79.30 per barrel. That has helped the energy sector limit its loss to less than 0.2%. Oil's rise and news of a newly declared dividend has helped National Oilwell Varco (NOV 45.73, +0.27) stand out in the sector.

Data has done little for stocks for the second straight session. This morning's Producer Price Index reading, in its aggregate and core form, proved more mild than expected. Industrial production for October increased less than expected, but capacity utilization was generally in-line with expectations. DJ30 -12.17 NASDAQ -4.32 SP500 -3.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 936/1.06 bln/1634 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1065/455 mln/1879

12:30 pm : The major indices have managed to trim their losses as they ascend to their best levels since midmorning. The Dow even managed to poke back into positive territory, but it has since slipped back into the red to trade with a fractional loss.

The broader market's upward move comes as materials stocks swing from a loss to a fractional gain. Energy stocks remain in the red, but they have also improved their position. Interest in the energy sector comes as oil prices bounce to a 0.5% gain at $79.30 per barrel.DJ30 -2.04 NASDAQ -1.99 SP500 -2.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 959/949 mln/1608 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1118/408 mln/1825

12:00 pm : The 0.8% gain by the Dollar Index continues to weigh on stocks, keeping losses broad-based. The greenback's gain has also dragged down commodities prices, like crude oil, which is down 0.3% to $78.65 per barrel.

Coupling weakness in the broader equity market with softer oil prices has the energy sector down 0.4%, which is in-line with the broader market's decline. However, there are several energy players that have managed to garner support. Among them, National Oilwell Varco (NOV 45.68, +0.22) has advanced following its announcement for a special one-time cash dividend of $1.00 per share. The company also approved a regulary quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share.

Meanwhile, shares of Exxon Mobil (XOM 74.92, +0.49) and Hess (HES 58.61, +0.99) are gaining after being upgraded. Shares of Exxon were favored by analysts at Barclays, while Hess was given a favorable review by analysts at UBS. DJ30 -18.36 NASDAQ -6.04 SP500 -4.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 878/837 mln/1654 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 932/360 mln/1966

11:30 am : Stocks continue to chop along with broad-based losses near session lows. The declines follow a failed attempt to push higher in the early going amid an improving dollar, which is now up 0.8% against a basket of major foreign currencies.DJ30 -28.72 NASDAQ -9.28 SP500 -5.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 834/745 mln/1698 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 870/322 mln/1999

11:00 am : The major indices recently retreated to a fresh session low as the Dollar Index spiked to a session high. Though the Dollar Index is now up 0.9%, stocks managed to make a modest bounce off of their session lows in the last few minutes. Still, losses generally remain broad based.

Consumer discretionary stocks (-1.3%) continue to make up the worst performing sector as shares of retailers slide to a 2.4% loss. The other declining sectors are generally trading in-line with one another, while telecom sports the only gain of any major sector -- it is up a modest 0.1%, though.DJ30 -22.90 NASDAQ -9.55 SP500 -4.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 737/600 mln/1729 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 853/269 mln/1974

10:30 am : After opening modestly lower, the stock market is trading just under the unchanged line while the U.S. Dollar Index remains near its morning high.

December crude oil is back into negative territory after rising off of morning lows of $78.14 and is currently trading four cents lower at $78.86 per barrel.

December natural gas rose sharply this morning to session highs of $4.734, but reversed just as fast, hitting fresh lows of $4.557 per MMBtu recently. Currently, natural gas is 0.003 cents lower at $4.617 per MMBtu.

Precious metals remain in negative territory as the dollar retains its strength. December gold is trading 0.3% lower at $1136 per ounce, while December silver is 0.4% lower at $18.32 per ounce.DJ30 -2.87 NASDAQ -4.18 SP500 -1.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 799/442.4 mln/1603 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1028/199.3 mln/1741

10:00 am : Stocks have come under a bit of resistance after making an upward push toward the unchanged mark. That has left them chopping along with modest losses.

Weakness has intensified among retailers, though. As a group, retailers are now down 1.1%. That has dragged the consumer discretionary sector to a 0.7% loss.

Telecom has made its way to a 0.4% gain, however. The sector's relative strength stems from interest in wireless services stocks, which are up 2.5%. Interest in the group follows an upgrade of Palm (PALM 12.48, +0.63), which was given an analyst upgrade ahead of the opening bell, according to reports.

Advancing Sectors: Telecom (+0.4%), Consumer Staples (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (-0.7%), Materials (-0.5%), Financials (-0.4%), Energy (-0.4%), Utilities (-0.2%), Industrials (-0.2%), Health Care (-0.2%)
Unchanged: Tech

Early movers: Trading up -- SMTL +30.2%, AGO +26.9%, ZOOM +25.4%, MGN +19.8%, XJT +13.6%, APWR +10.2%, SINA +9.7%, DDS +8.6%; Trading down -- PSUN -25.6%, SPWRB -19%, SPWRA -17.5%, CERS -16.8%, ITMN -14.8%, NLST -11.9%, JEC -11.6%DJ30 -1.43 NASDAQ -2.32 SP500 -1.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 767/291 mln/1568 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 970/130 mln/1742

09:45 am : Stocks opened the session in negative territory with modest losses, but the major indices have managed to make an upward move toward the neutral line.

After lagging in the previous session, consumer staples stocks are showing relative strength this morning. The sector is up 0.3% at the moment.

Though not severe, losses are steepest among consumer discretionary stocks, which are down 0.4% as a group. That stems from a 0.6% slide among shares of retailers, even though several retailers reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings results.DJ30 +0.98 NASDAQ -3.01 SP500 -1.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 715/184 mln/1504 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 899/86 mln/1717

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.50. After setting a fresh 52-week low in the previous session, the Dollar Index has rebounded to sport a 05% gain this morning. As has been the case for weeks, the dollar's strength continues to spell weakness for stocks as investors show concern for repatriated profits of multinationals and prices of commodities and basic materials come under pressure. Pressure against commodities this morning has the CRB Commodity Index down 0.5% after the previous session's 2.8% spike -- its best single-session percentage advance in more than one month. The greenback's gains have also overshadowed better-than-expected earnings from a handful of retailers; Home Depot (HD), TJX Companies (TJX), Saks (SKS), and Pacific Sunwear (PSUN) all bested expectations. TJX went on to raise its outlook, while Home Depot issued upside guidance of its own. Data has also done little to sway the mood of early participants. Producer prices, in their aggregate and core form, were weaker than expected in October. Meanwhile, Net Long-Term TIC Flows spiked more-than-expected to $40.7 billion in September. Just released, industrial production for October increased 0.1%, which is weaker than the 0.4% that had been expected. Meanwhile, capacity utilization came in at 70.7%, which is fractionally below the 70.8%.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.00. Equity markets in Europe are down modestly. Specifically, Britain's FTSE is off by 0.5% at the moment. Weakness is most pronounced among banks and mining outfits. Following bearish comments about banks from prominent U.S. analyst Meredith Whitney, Barclays (BCS), HSBC (HBC), and Standard Chartered have come under pressure. Rio Tinto (RTP) and Xstrata have also fallen under pressure. According to a recent batch of data, Britain's consumer prices climbed 1.5% in October. In Germany, the DAX is down 0.3%. Lufthansa has slipped amid news that it isn't planning to purchase Scandinavian partner SAS Group, according to reports. In France, the CAC is off 0.4% at the moment. Total (TOT) is weighing most heavily on trade as oil prices hand back part of their gains from the previous session. In broader news, Dow Jones reported that the euro zone's trade balance moved to a surprise surplus in September. According to data, the 16 countries that use the euro had a combined trade surplus of EUR3.7 billion, up from a upwardly revised deficit of EUR2.3 billion in August. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei slid 0.6%. Exporters were weighed down by a strong yen. In particular, electronic retailers were among the worst performers as Toshiba and Konica Minolta. Canon (CAJ) gained, though. The company anncounced plans to buy Dutch outfit Ocefor. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng slipped 0.1% as Beijing rebuffed calls for the yuan to rise, raising fears of foreign fund outflows. Dow Jones reported that International Monetary Fund chief Strauss-Kahn again urged Beijing to let the yuan rise sooner than later. Industrial and Commercial Bank and Bank East Asia were laggards in the action, but HSBC was able to garner support. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite managed to tack on 0.2%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific Index closed 0.3% lower.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.50. The Producer Price Index increased 0.3% in October, but that was a slower pace than the 0.5% increase that was widely expected. PPI had actually decreased 0.6% in the previous month. Meanwhile, core PPI fell 0.6% in October. It was expected to make a 0.1% increase. Core PPI had decreased 0.1% in September. Stock futures have been generally unaffected by the data, such that they continue to lag fair value by a modest margin.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.30. The dollar continues to drive trade. As such, its rebound from the previous session's slide has undercut stock futures. Corporate news flow has been rather slow, but home improvement retailer Home Depot (HD) did announce earnings of $0.41 per share for its latest quarter. That bested the consensus of $0.36 per share. However, a quarterly report from Lowe's (LOW) in the previous session already gave many shareholders an idea of what to expect; shares of HD are down 1.4% to $27.26 per share in this morning's premarket trade. Producer price data for October (8:30 AM ET) and industrial production data for October (9:15 AM ET) make up the primary items on today's economic calendar.

06:21 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.30.

06:21 am : Nikkei...9729.93...-61.30...-0.60%. Hang Seng...22914.15...-29.80...-0.10%.

06:21 am : FTSE...5362.78...-19.90...-0.40%. DAX...5790.00...-15.10...-0.30%.

M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Go Back To TheStrategyLab.com Homepage


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