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 Post subject: November 13th Friday 2009 Emini ES points (no trades)
PostPosted: Sat Nov 14, 2009 9:08 am 
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Written By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip involving WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis) because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=362

Quote:
No trades today for me due to a 3 day family weekend.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their efforts in trade signals while ignoring the impact on their trading results via market experience, discipline, money management, team collaboration, proper trading enviornment (home or office), market psychology, trader psychology (trading habits/routine and personal lifestyle). If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: (no trades) Emini ES ($ES_F) points due to a 3 day family weekend


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Stock Rally: Two Weeks and Counting
Retail shares helped lead a strong advance to end the second week in a row higher, as investors gained confidence in the pace of the economic recovery.
By Julianne Pepitone, CNNMoney.com staff reporter
Last Updated: November 13, 2009: 5:44 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Friday to end higher for the second week in a row, amid heightened confidence that the pace of the economic recovery is gaining momentum.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) jumped 73 points, or 0.7%, to close at 10,270.47. Gains were broad, with 22 of the 30 Dow components closing higher.

The S&P 500 (SPX) gained 6 points, or 0.6%, to end at 1,093.48, and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 19 points, or 0.9% to settle at 2,167.88.

All three indexes finished higher for the week, with the Dow increasing 2.47% off last week's close of 10,023.43. That's the second straight "up" week, part of a wider trend higher as stocks have been on a tear since bottoming on March 9.

The blue-chip Dow has rallied more than 53% since then. The S&P has fared even better in the rapid rise, soaring 64% off the March bottom -- but the Nasdaq is the leader of the trio, up 71% from its low.

Consumer-related shares led the advance Friday, following upbeat earnings reports from retailers JC Penney (JCP, Fortune 500) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF).

Investors also shrugged off two weak economic reports and snapped up shares beaten down in the previous session, including American Express (AXP, Fortune 500), McDonald's (MCD, Fortune 500) and United Technologies Corp (UTX, Fortune 500).

The University of Michigan said consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell to 66 in early November from 70.6, while the Commerce Department said the trade balance between imports and exports grew more than expected in October to $36.5 billion.

Bouncing back. The market has been ignoring reports like consumer sentiment because "if you dissect it, it boils down to issues like high unemployment," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist with Avalon Partners.

"The market is already aware of these problems," Cardillo added. "So reports can have an effect, but usually it's not earth-shattering."

Jeffrey Hirsch, an analyst at Stock Trader's Almanac, agreed that investors are "shrugging off some negative data" in fear of missing a rally.

"We were in the second-worst bear market for the Dow since 1900," Hirsch said. "It's not overly surprising that there's some bounceback."

Stocks have also been benefiting from a weaker dollar, which has been holding near a 15-month low against the euro.

"Cheap money is seeking a home in equities, and that momentum is pushing the runup," Cardillo said.

Earlier this week, jitters about the economic recovery led investors to question the sustainability of a six-day rally, and stocks slumped Thursday.

"There's still a lot of money coming in on momentum that news is less bad than it was," Hirsch said.

Happy new year for stocks? Hirsch said he is looking for steady stock gains through the rest of 2009 to continue through the beginning of the year. But he cautioned the lack of a moderate rally toward the end of the year could be a bad sign for 2010.

By the end of the first quarter of 2010, "investors will get impatient with not-as-bad news and start really looking for true improvement," Hirsch said.

Cardillo was also bullish on 2009, saying he expects the Dow to hit 11,000 and the S&P to reach 1,175 by year's end.

Companies: Disney (DIS, Fortune 500), whose shares rose almost 4.8%, reported quarterly results late Thursday that showed signs of a turnaround at the company. It also swapped the roles of two top executives.

Also after the closing bell Thursday, upscale retailer Nordstrom (JWN, Fortune 500) posted a quarterly profit that was below analysts' forecasts, and said it expects a drop in full-year same-store sales.

Dollar General (DG)went public late Thursday and opened on the New York Stock Exchange Friday, closing up 8.2% from its initial public offering price of $21.

Other markets: The dollar fell broadly against the euro, pound and yen.

Oil prices fell 59 cents to settle at $76.35, while gold settled up $10.10 to $1,116.70 per ounce.

Treasurys fell as investors digested this week's record $81 billion worth of auctions.

Most Asian markets finished the session in negative territory, although Hong Kong's Hang Seng posted gains. In Europe, major indexes ended higher.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers three to one on volume of 985 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners almost two to one on volume of 1.9 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Stocks looked like they were going to surrender solid gains as support dwindled in afternoon trade, but as the S&P 500 approached the neutral line in the final hour buyers stepped back in to hand stocks a solid finish.

Renewed weakness in the U.S. dollar helped stocks overcome an early slip that followed a lower-than-expected preliminary consumer sentiment reading of 66.0 for November from the University of Michigan. Meanwhile, news of a deeper-than-expected trade deficit for September had little impact on stocks, even though the data will play a role in downward revisions to third quarter GDP calculations.

The dollar's decline remained the primary focus of market participants this session. Following two consecutive advances the greenback moved lower against a basket of major foreign currencies. That caused the Dollar Index to give up 0.6%. The dollar's drop came amid comments from World Bank President Zoellick that indicated the U.S. is limited in its ability to address the weak dollar, while representatives from China indicated that the country's currency would not gain against the dollar in the short term.

Amid the dollar's downturn, stocks were able to spend most of the session sporting broad-based gains, which helped the S&P 500 climb as high as 1.0%. Though the broader market surrendered some of its gains late in the session, stocks still finished firmly higher. That helped the S&P 500 finish with a weekly gain of 2.3%.

Consumer discretionary stocks made up the best performing sector this session. They advanced 1.6% as a group. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 40.68, +3.92) was a primary leader after it topped the consensus earnings estimate. JC Penney (JCP 31.21, +1.82) missed earnings expectations, but garnered support during a conference call when it expressed confidence in its sales plan. Nordstrom (JWN 33.99, -0.52) was weak as an earnings miss overshadowed upside guidance.

Financials showed relative weakness for the entire session and made up the only major sector to finish with a loss. Weakness among diversified banks (-1.9%) took the sector to a 0.3% loss. Fifth Third (FITB 9.74, +0.20) provided some support, though. Analysts at Credit Suisse initiated coverage on the stock with an Outperform rating.

Trading volume was weak once again as fewer than 1 billion shares exchanged hands on the NYSE. Trading volume on the NYSE averaged just above 1 billion shares this week. The lack of participation is often associated with a lack of conviction.

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (+1.6%), Tech (+0.9%), Utilities (+0.8%), Industrials (+0.7%), Consumer Staples (+0.7%), Energy (+0.7%), Materials (+0.6%), Health Care (+0.2%)
Declining Sectors: Financials (-0.3%)
Unchanged: TelecomDJ30 +73.00 NASDAQ +18.86 NQ100 +0.9% R2K +1.0% SP400 +1.0% SP500 +6.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1774/1.90 bln/881 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2206/985 mln/793

3:30 pm : Despite starting the session with broad weakness, commodities made their way higher and helped the CRB Commodity Index reverse a 0.6% loss to trade near the flat line.

Gold prices were particularly strong. They finished 0.9% higher at $1116.70 per ounce, just shy of the record high of $1119.10 per ounce.

Silver also gained after trading with a loss in early pit trade. The precious metal advanced 0.7% to settle at $17.38 per ounce.

Oil prices oscillated after trading with a loss in excess of 1% this morning. Crude contracts closed with oil priced at $76.29 per barrel, down 0.8%.

Natural gas prices were able to log a 0.4% gain at $4.39 each. Their advance came despite a larger-than-expected buildin weekly inventories. DJ30 +50.86 NASDAQ +10.89 SP500 +3.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1494/1.56 bln/1137 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1879/731 mln/1079

3:00 pm : Stocks continue to hand back their gains as buyers provide less and less support heading into the final hour of trade.

Trading volume has been rather light this session. However, that is keeping with trends this week. Trading volume on the NYSE has averaged just above 1 billion shares this week.DJ30 +33.33 NASDAQ +7.48 SP500 +1.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1417/1.43 bln/1197 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1782/660 mln/1164

2:30 pm : Broad-based gains remain, but stocks are gradually drifting downward after trading sideways near session highs in early afternoon trade. Only the consumer discretionary sector (+1.3%) continues to sport a gain in excess of 1%.

While stocks are handing back some of their gains, the broader market continues to eye a weekly gain of more than 2%. While such an advance is impressive, it isn't quite as strong as the 3.2% weekly gain that was logged last week. Prior to that, stocks had booked two consecutive weekly losses.DJ30 +70.06 NASDAQ +16.67 SP500 +5.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1726/1.29 bln/908 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2112/596 mln/822

2:00 pm : After moving sideways near session highs for the past hour, stocks have eased back a bit. Gains remain solid and broad based, however.

Amid the healthy gains, financials continue to lag. The sector is now down 0.1%. Fifth Third (FITB 9.74, +0.20) is looking strong, though. The stock has gained favor following news that analysts at Credit Suisse initiated their coverage on the stock with an Outperform rating.DJ30 +84.04 NASDAQ +18.82 SP500 +7.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1761/1.19 bln/857 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2177/549 mln/766

1:30 pm : Stocks are taking a breather after making their way to session highs. That has left the major indices to move sideways.

The drift has kept this session's broad based gains intact, though. Six of the 10 major sectors are up by 1% or more -- financials continue to lag on a relative basis as they trade with a mere 0.1% gain.

Treasuries have had a quiet session. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is essentially flat. That has left its yield at 3.45%.DJ30 +98.62 NASDAQ +21.17 SP500 +9.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1795/1.11 bln/802 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2243/507 mln/682

1:00 pm : Despite some choppy action in the early going, stocks are sporting impressive gains as the major indices make their way to fresh session highs. The upbeat mood among participants comes amid renewed weakness in the U.S. dollar.

After putting together back-to-back gains, the U.S. dollar has succumbed to another fit of selling. That has the Dollar Index down a considerable 0.7%, which puts it near session lows.

The dollar's drop comes amid comments from World Bank President that indicated the U.S. is limited in its ability to address the weak dollar as the currency's value will be set by the market and affected by overall confidence in dollar assets. Zoellick implied earlier this week that the dollar's status as a reserve currency wasn't in jeopardy. Meanwhile, representatives from China indicated that the country's currency would not gain against the dollar in the short term, despite comments from its central bank earlier this week that indicated the mechanism for valuing the yuan would be improved.

Still, weakness in the greenback has fueled broad-based gains. Though in positive territory, financials (+0.2%) have lagged this session as diversified banks fall out of favor (-1.2%).

Consumer discretionary stocks have been among the best performers. As a group, they are up 1.8%. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 39.80, +3.04) has been a primary leader in the group after it topped the consensus earnings estimate with relative ease. JC Penney (JCP 31.54, +2.15) missed earnings expectations and issued an in-line outlook, but managed to garner support with an optimistic conference call. Nordstrom (JWN 33.75, -0.76) failed to hit the consensus earnings estimate for its latest quarter and issued upside guidance, but still hasn't won the support of participants.

Stocks showed little reaction a deeper-than-expected trade deficit for September, even though the data will play a role in downward revisions to third quarter GDP calculations.

However, stocks did fall under a flurry of pressure in the moments following a disappointing preliminary consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan for November. The move lower was short lived, though.

Commodities have also been helped by the greenback's downturn. Oil prices had been down more than 1% in early pit trade, but were last quoted unchanged at $76.95 per barrel. Meanwhile, gold prices are flirting with record highs again. The yellow metal is currently up 1.0% to $1117.10 per ounce. It hit a record high of $1119 per ounce earlier this week.DJ30 +96.66 NASDAQ +21.21 SP500 +9.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1775/1.02 bln/790 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2243/472 mln/676

12:30 pm : After consolidating gains near session highs for the past hour, the major indices have moved another leg higher as participants show renewed buying interest in stocks. The pick up in buying comes in hand with further losses in the U.S. dollar, which is now down nearly 0.7% against a basket of major foreign currencies. DJ30 +102.78 NASDAQ +20.71 SP500 +9.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1705/909 mln/821 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2198/425 mln/686

12:00 pm : The broader market continues to trade with modest gains, while a couple of newly issued initial public offerings (IPO) are sporting some enviable gains. Specifically, apparel retailer rue21 (RUE 24.06, +5.06) is up sharply after it priced its 6.77 million share IPO at $19 per share, which is above the expected range of $16 to $18 per share. Meanwhile, discount retailer Dollar General (DG 22.70, +1.70) is up handsomely after pricing its 34.1 million share IPO at $21 per share, which is at the low end of the expected range $21 to $23 per share.DJ30 +70.51 NASDAQ +10.84 SP500 +5.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1471/815 mln/1035 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1891/381 mln/965

11:30 am : As the Dollar Index extends its slide to 0.5% so that it trades at a fresh session low, oil prices have managed to pare their losses. Oil is now down 0.5% to $76.55 per barrel after being down more than 1% in early pit trade. Nonetheless, oil prices have fallen considerably during the course of the past two sessions so that it is down roughlly 1% week-to-date.

Oil's recent slide has helped win support for airline stocks, which are up 3.2%, based on the AMEX Airline Index (XAL 26.68, +0.82). The Dow Jones Transportation Index is also up, though a less impressive 0.6%.DJ30 +80.94 NASDAQ +12.85 SP500 +6.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1503/711 mln/972 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1965/338 mln/870

11:00 am : Participants responded to the latest consumer sentiment survey, which was below expectations, by sending stocks into the red, but buyers have since stepped in to drive stocks upward to fresh session highs.

The recent ascent has been broad based, such that nine of the 10 major sectors are in the green. Even telecom, which was one of the worst performing sectors in the early going, is now up a solid 0.6%.

Only financials have failed to participate in the rebound. The sector currently trades with a 0.1% loss. Diversified banks remain a primary source of weakness for the sector; the group is down 1.4% as Wells Fargo (WFC 27.79, -0.43) and US Bancorp (USB 23.62, -0.38).DJ30 +80.03 NASDAQ +12.03 SP500 +6.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1477/582 mln/926 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1954/285 mln/840

10:30 am : Despite a downward move by the U.S. dollar, commodities are contending with selling pressure. That has the CRB Commodity Index down 0.5%.

Oil prices are down markedly for the second straight session. After dropping 3.0% Thursday, crude contracts most recently quoted oil 1.3% lower at $75.90 per barrel.

Natural gas prices are up fractionally to $4.39 per contract. They recently slipped in the wake of weekly inventory data, which showed a bigger-than-expected build of 25 bcf.

Gold prices are flat. The yellow metal was last quoted at $1107.20 per ounce.

Silver prices surrendered some early morning gains as they slid into negative territory. The precious metal is currently being priced at $17.13 per ounce, down 0.8%. DJ30 +49.65 NASDAQ +6.14 SP500 +3.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1257/431 mln/1091 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1623/217 mln/1101

10:00 am : Stocks have made a sudden pullback in the wake of the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment reading for November, which came in at 66.0. That is worse than the 71.0 that had been widely forecast and is also down from the 70.6 reading that was posted in October.

A negative reaction to the report has put the Nasdaq and the broader S&P 500 in negative territory, while the Dow tries to hold out with a fractional gain.

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (+0.5%), Tech (+0.2%)
Declining Sectors: Telecom (-0.4%), Financials (-0.3%), Energy (-0.3%), Utilities (-0.2%)
Unchanged: Health Care, Industrials, Materials, Consumer Staples

Early movers: Trading up -- TSTC +28.6%, RINO +13.2%, AGO +10.7%, MAXY +10.3%, PLA +8.1%, ROSE +8%, WAL +7.5%, MSCC +6.7%, MFG +6.3%, ANF +6.2%; Trading down -- ZAGG -19.6%, ESE -15.1%, MRGE -15%, LBTYA -10.7%, LBTYK -10.5%, LKFN -7.6%, BUSE -7.4%, CADX -6.8%, AHC -6.7%, SAY -5.3%DJ30 +0.98 NASDAQ -2.36 SP500 -0.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 971/245 mln/1294 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1103/135 mln/1548

09:45 am : Stocks have started the session with modest, but broad-based gains. As such, eight of the 10 major sectors are in the green.

Gains are strongest among consumer discretionary stocks. The sector is up 0.5% with help from Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 38.43, +1.67), which topped the consensus earnings estimate with relative ease. Nordstrom (JWN 32.64, -1.87) is a drag, though; the company failed to hit the consensus earnings estimate for its latest quarter. That has overshadowed its upside guidance.

Telecom and financials are the only two major sectors to trade in the red. They are down 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. DJ30 +20.78 NASDAQ +3.20 SP500 +0.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1280/119 mln/881 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1541/75 mln/1035

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.80. The Dollar Index has made its way off of its session low so that it now trades with a loss of less than 0.3%. Though its overall weakness continues to provide support to stocks in premarket trade, its improved position has undercut stock futures. Still, futures point to a moderately higher start for the session. That will add to the stock market's current week-to-date gain of 1.7%. While that isn't quite as strong as the previous week's 3.2% gain, it would still mark the second straight weekly advance. Data hasn't had much of an impact on trade this morning. The trade deficit for September was deeper than expected, which will play a role in downward revisions to third quarter GDP calculations.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.30. U.S. stock futures have improved their position a bit, though without much help from overseas markets. Europe's major bourses are seeing mixed interest from participants following news that the eurozone officially emerged from recession as GDP for the 16-country zone expanded 0.4% during the third quarter. Though that followed five consecutive quarters of contraction, the rate of expansion wasn't quite as strong as many had come to expect. Germany's DAX has been left to trade along the unchanged mark as strength in SAP and Allianz is offset by weakness in automakers Daimler and Volkswagen. In France, the CAC is off by 0.4%, though its declining issues and advancers are in relative balance. Stiff selling against energy giant Total (TOT) has weighed heavily on trade, however. In Britain, the FTSE is up 0.2%. HSBC (HBC) is providing support for the second straight session. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei slipped nearly 0.4% as decliners outnumber advancing issues by 2-to-1. Terumo was a primary laggard, but KDDI provided some support. Bank stocks also advanced. Their gains came ahead of quarterly results from Mizuho and Sumitomo, which both announced after the close better-than-expected profits. Banks also advanced on Hong Kong's Hang Seng, which finished 0.7% higher. A bullish outlook from Industrial and Commercial Bank of China was a primary catalyst for the gain. Reuters reported Thursday that China Construction Bank is in talks to make certain investments to give it footing in Hong Kong's retail securities market. However, Bank of East Asia was a primary laggard after it indicated that it is not in talks over a potential acquisition. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite tacked on 0.5% and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index closed 0.1% lower. Representatives from China indicated that the country's currency would not gain against the dollar in the short term, despite comments from its central bank earlier this week that indicated the mechanism for valuing the yuan would be improved.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.00. Stock futures continue to sport a lead over fair value, but they remain shy of session highs. Their reaction to the latest dose of data was somewhat muted. The September trade balance showed a deficit of $36.5 billion, which is worse than the $31.8 billion trade deficit that was expected. It is also worse than the previous month's deficit of $30.8 billion. Meanwhile, the Import Price Index made a 0.7% month-over-month increase in October. That was weaker than the 1.0% monthly increase that was expected.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.80. Stock futures are currently off of their highs, but sport a modest lead over fair value, thanks partly to a 0.4% pullback in the Dollar Index. Earnings announcements have been somewhat complementary to this morning's moderately positive tone, too. Disney (DIS) topped the consensus earnings estimate by bringing in an adjusted $0.46 per share for its latest quarter. Nordstrom (JWN) came a bit shy of expectations by bringing in $0.38 per share, but attempted to redeem itself by issuing upside guidance that calls for earnings from $1.83 to $1.88 per share for fiscal 2010. Meanwhile, Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) posted better-than-expected adjusted earnings of $0.30 per share for its latest quarter. In terms of data, the September Trade Balance is due at the bottom of the hour (8:30 AM ET) and the preliminary consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan is due after the open (10:00 AM ET). Separately, Chicago Fed President Evans will be making a speech from Paris (10:30 AM ET).

06:28 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.80.

06:28 am : Nikkei...9770.31...-34.20...-0.40%. Hang Seng...22553.63...+156.10...+0.70%.

06:28 am : FTSE...5288.78...+12.30...+0.20%. DAX...5674.54...+10.60...+0.20%.

M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
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