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 Post subject: November 11th Wednesday 2009 Emini ES ($ES_F) points +10.75
PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2009 6:51 am 
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Written By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip involving WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis) because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=360

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Low volatility trading day and because of such I wasn't expecting too many trade opportunities. However, I did miss a few and they would have produced the biggest profits of the trading day. Something interesting occurred on twitter today, I sent out about a dozen private messages to traders that are following my tweets and asked them do they look at other key markets to help with their trade decisions in the Emini ES (intermarket analysis). Everyone of them said no and I was very surprised considering other key markets have a big impact on the price direction in Emini ES. Anyways, these traders were not profitable and seemed more interested in re-designing their indicators over and over again after any drawdowns.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their efforts in trade signals while ignoring the impact on their trading results via market experience, discipline, money management, team collaboration, proper trading enviornment (home or office), market psychology, trader psychology (trading habits/routine and personal lifestyle). If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +10.75 Emini ES ($ES_F) points


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Dow Hits Another 13-Month High
Investors show more confidence that interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future.
By Julianne Pepitone, CNNMoney.com staff reporter
Last Updated: November 11, 2009: 5:55 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks ended higher Wednesday, with the Dow industrials finishing at a 13-month high for third straight day, after investor optimism rose on the expectation that interest rates would remain low for some time.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 44 points, or 0.4%, to end at 10,291.26. The S&P 500 (SPX) ticked up 6 points, or 0.5%, to close at 1,098.51, and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 16 points, or 0.7%, to settle at 2,166.90.

Federal Reserve officials who spoke earlier Tuesday said the economic recovery was likely to be muted, and they also reinforced the view that the central bank would keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future.

"People are comfortable with the Fed, that they won't do anything stupid," said Harry Clark of Clark Capital Management. "They've said the same thing many times during this recession, and I don't see them making waves anytime soon."

Clark said he expects that the Fed won't change its policy until the second quarter of 2010, but the record-low rates should support the market until then.

Robert Brusca, chief economist at Fact and Opinion Economics, said investor optimism seemed to be overriding negative sentiment, noting that "the markets were able to shake off a somewhat disappointing jobs number last week."

Most investors "are more optimistic than the pessimists that are making all the news," Brusca said. "I think the health of the market is better than a lot of the technicians give it credit for."

Clark agreed, saying investors "are realizing things aren't as bad as the headlines sound, with people pooh-poohing the green shoots. They're accepting that the fundamentals are coming along."

U.S. bond markets and government offices were closed Wednesday for Veterans Day, but stock and commodity markets were open as usual.

Wall Street finished Tuesday's session mixed as investors expressed caution following Monday's big rally. But the Dow's 20-point gain Tuesday left it at a new 13-month high.

An extended rally? Clark is bullish for the short term -- he said he expects the market to sustain gains through January.

"I think we'll have one more decent [market dip] next year, maybe for a couple quarters, when the Fed moves up the interest rate," Clark said. "Then we'll have a correction and that should largely end the big swings, beginning a steady increase."

With interest rates expected to remain low, corporate earnings season behind us and commodity prices rising, Clark said he can't "see a reason for a stumble" barring major unexpected news.

He expects the Dow will end the year around 11,500 and the S&P will close at 1,130.

Steven Rogé, portfolio manager at R. W. Rogé & Company, is more cautious.

"Some investors are forward-looking, saying the picture is not as dire as it was," Rogé said. "But at the same time a lot of money managers are still looking in the rearview mirror at lagging indicators like unemployment."

But Rogé noted "every post-World War II recession has been a 'jobless recovery,'" and he expects the turnaround to follow historical patterns.

The trend will be upward throughout the year, with "some bumps in the road," he said. He expects the Dow will end the year at 10,500 and the S&P will close at 1,150.

U.S. companies and world markets: AIG's (AIG, Fortune 500) Robert Benmosche threatened to step down as CEO of the bailed-out insurer, telling the company board that he's "done" because of government restraints, according to the Wall Street Journal, which cited unidentified people familiar with the matter.

In Japan, the Nikkei finished the session little changed. Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 1.6%. Major European indexes ended slightly higher.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar was higher against the euro, British pound and Japanese yen, rising off 15-month lows against major international currencies.

The price of crude oil rose 23 cents to settle at $79.28 a barrel.

December gold rose $12.10 to settle at $1,114.60 an ounce, after climbing to a record $1,118.50 an ounce earlier in the session.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers topped winners by almost nine to six on volume of 1 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers eight to five on volume of 1.9 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : A rebound by the U.S. dollar and some technical resistance caused stocks to make an early pullback from 2009 highs and spend the rest of the session trading in lackluster fashion.

Broad-based buying in overseas markets amid strong economic data from Asia and solid earnings from some major industry players in Europe helped inspire a positive tone among U.S. participants in the early going. That combined with renewed weakness in the U.S. dollar to send the S&P 500 1.1% higher to a fractionally better 2009 high in the first hour of trade.

However, the dollar managed to garner support and swing the Dollar Index from a 0.3% loss and a fresh 52-week low to a gain of 0.3% at its session high. It settled with a gain closer to 0.1%, but that was enough to keep stocks from extending their earlier gains.

Stocks were also stymied by technical resistance as the 500 S&P flirted with the trend line for 2007-2008 highs, while the Dow tested its 50% retracement of the bear market decline. Despite the resistance, the Dow was able to log its sixth straight gain and register a new intraday high and closing high for 2009. The S&P 500 also set a fractionally better 2009 closing high, but a close above 1100 continues to elude the broader market index.

Technical resistance and a firmer dollar kept the financial sector from providing the broader market with much leadership, even though the sector spent virtually the entire session showing strength. After being up more than 2%, financials settled with a 1.4% gain.

Materials stocks also finished solidly higher. The sector settled with a 0.9% gain, helped by strength among commodities prices, which were generally higher in the face of the firmer dollar. Before settling pit trade 1.1% higher at $1114.50 per ounce, gold hit another record high of $1119.10 per ounce. That gave gold stocks a gain of 1.6% and the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD 109.60, +1.21) a new record high.

Gains were generally broad based as nine of the 10 major sectors finished with a gain. Utilities were the only sector to post a loss; they settled 0.3% lower.

Retailers also had a weak session after Macy's (M 17.86, -1.57) issued downside guidance, but the group's 0.3% decline wasn't enough to derail the consumer discretionary sector (+0.5%).

Advancing Sectors: Financials (+1.4%), Materials (+0.9%), Tech (+0.6%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.5%), Industrials (+0.5%), Consumer Staples (+0.3%), Telecom (+0.2%), Health Care (+0.2%), Energy (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Utilities (-0.3%)DJ30 +44.29 NASDAQ +15.82 SP500 +5.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1672/1.87 bln/1006 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1875/1.05 bln/1129

3:30 pm : The broader market has traded in a relatively narrow range on light volume since paring gains early in the session.

Despite a late recovery in the dollar, commodities held on to gains this session. Precious metals were especially strong, up 1.6%. That strength is evident in the equity markets as well. Materials are currently the second strongest sector, trailing only financials; they are up 0.9% and 1.4%, respectively.

Gold and silver futures both opened the pit trade markedly higher as the dollar was notably weak. Although the dollar index pared its losses late in the morning, gold and silver futures preserved their modest gains. Gold futures notched a new all-time high late in the morning at $1119.10 per ounce. December gold futures closed 1.1% higher at $1114.50 per ounce. December silver futures closed 1.9% higher at $17.55 per ounce.

Energy commodities saw marginal gains this session. Early in the session, December natural gas futures rallied from a session low at $4.43 per contract to a session high at $4.57 per contract in about thirty minutes. They bounced off the unchanged level two times before they closed up 0.9% at $4.50 per contract. December crude oil futures also hit a session high early in the session. After trending down and hitting a session low in the afternoon at $78.57 per barrel, they closed up 0.4% at $79.33 per barrel.DJ30 +34.99 NASDAQ +13.14 SP500 +3.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1579/1.53 bln/1070 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1749/780 mln/1224

3:00 pm : One hour remains and stocks continue to trade with modest gains. The S&P 500 remains below 1100 after eclipsing the mark earlier this session. The S&P 500 hasn't been able to close above that mark in more than one year. Many market pundits believe that finishing above 1100 would provide an encouraging sign to bulls.DJ30 +38.69 NASDAQ +13.48 SP500 +5.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1573/1.41 bln/1076 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1760/724 mln/1214

2:30 pm : Despite the stock market's modest gain, action remains largely lackluster. Key support continues to come from the financial sector (+1.1%) and the materials sector (+1.0%), but the two sectors haven't been able to provide much in terms of actual leadership.

A stronger dollar continues to stymie a broader market advance. The Dollar Index is near session highs with a 0.2% gain. Still, it is only fractionally above the 52-week low that it set earlier this morning.DJ30 +22.67 NASDAQ +10.48 SP500 +3.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1463/1.31 bln/1132 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1675/672 mln/1273

2:00 pm : The Dow and S&P recently drifted back to the unchanged mark, but they were able to secure support there.

Still, amid the broader market's move lower energy stocks fell back into negative ground. The sector is now trading with a 0.3% loss. Its weakness has been exacerbated by a reversal in oil prices, which are now down fractionally to $79.00 per barrel. DJ30 +12.09 NASDAQ +5.59 SP500 +1.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1425/1.22 bln/1160 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1600/625 mln/1335

1:30 pm : Though the major indices continue to trade with modest gains, action has become a bit choppy. Amid the chop, shares of retailers have fallen to a 0.5% loss. Most of that weakness stems from disappointment in the wake of the latest quarterly report from Macy's (M 17.81, -1.62). The company posted this morning better-than-expected earnings, but that was overshadowed by its downside forecast.DJ30 +27.06 NASDAQ +9.01 SP500 +4.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1502/1.11 bln/1073 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1730/575 mln/1210

1:00 pm : The Dow and S&P 500 made their way to fractionally better highs for 2009 in the early going, but ran into a double headwind of technical resistance and a rebound by the U.S. dollar.

Stocks had started the session with strong gains as participants responded to broad-based buying in overseas markets on strong economic data out of Asia and solid earnings from some major industry players in Europe.

A weaker dollar also bolstered buying among U.S. participants, but that source of support proved unsustainable. Renewed weakness in the greenback took the Dollar Index down some 0.2% to a fresh 52-week low, but it has since rebounded to trade with a 0.1% gain.

The dollar's upturn came as the S&P flirted with the trendline for 2007-2008 highs and the Dow tested its 50% retracement of the bear market decline. Ensuing selling has trimmed the stock market's gains and left it off of its session highs.

Despite the move lower, financials continue to sport strong gains. The sector has been outperforming the broader market for the entire session and is currently up 1.4%, which has helped put it on track for its best weekly performance in one month.

Materials stocks are also faring well as materials and commodities prices continue to trade with gains in the face of the firmer dollar. In fact, gold prices are up 1.2% to $1115 per ounce after they hit record highs above $1118 per ounce this morning.

Oil prices have handed back some of their gains, though. Oil had been up more than 1% in the early going, but is now up a more modest 0.4% to $79.30 per barrel. Amid the pullback in oil prices, energy stocks are trading flat. They had been up as much as 1.2% and down as much as 0.4%.DJ30 +30.76 NASDAQ +10.93 SP500 +4.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1561/1.03 bln/991 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1725/537 mln/1180

12:30 pm : Stocks continue to trade near session lows as the Dollar Index makes its way to a session high, where it sports a gain of 0.2%.

Despite the modesty of the broader market's gains, financials remain considerably higher. The sector is up 1.5% and remains the best performing major sector in the S&P 500. With its gain this session, the financial sector is up roughly 4.7% week-to-date. That puts it on track to log its best weekly gain since early October.DJ30 +35.29 NASDAQ +12.56 SP500 +5.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1578/943 mln/965 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1800/493 mln/1103

12:00 pm : The major indices are back on the slide, such that the Dow and the S&P 500 recently came within close reach of the neutral line. The Nasdaq, though also turning lower, is holding up a bit better.

The Nasdaq's relative resistance to selling has been helped by strength among large-cap tech issues. Microsoft (MSFT 29.14, +0.13), Google (GOOG 571.24, +4.48), Intel (INTC 19.71, +0.21), and Cisco (CSCO 23.89, +0.24) make up the primary leaders in the tech-rich Nasdaq.DJ30 +21.61 NASDAQ +8.79 SP500 +2.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1562/859 mln/971 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1674/446 mln/1222

11:30 am : Stocks have slowed their slide, but now trade near session lows. Meanwhile, the greenback continues to sport a modest gain.

Despite the dollar's upturn, commodities are still sporting solid gains. Oil prices have pulled back a bit, though. Oil prices had been up roughly 1%, but they are now up 0.5% to $79.40 per barrel. Gold prices remain more than 1% higher, currently at $1114 per ounce. Their gains, along with what is still a generally positive tone among equity market participants, have the US Oil Fund (USO 40.57, +0.16) and SPDR Gold Trust (GLD 109.18, +0.79) looking strong -- GLD actually hit a 52-week high earlier this seession.DJ30 +30.53 NASDAQ +11.65 SP500 +4.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1598/767 mln/933 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1780/394 mln/1099

11:00 am : Stocks are surrendering their gains after the Dow and S&P 500 set fractionally better 2009 highs less than one hour ago. The turnabout comes as the U.S. dollar strengthens to help the Dollar Index reverse earlier losses and make its way off of a 52-week low to a fractional gain.

That has led to a generally broad-based pullback, but only the telecom sector (-0.4%), utilities sector (-0.3%), and health care sector (-0.1%) have actually moved into negative territory.

Though off of their highs, financials are still sporting impressive gains. The sector is currently up 1.4%. It had been up as much as 2.4%.DJ30 +31.06 NASDAQ +12.16 SP500 +4.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1699/606 mln/772 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1892/321 mln/949

10:30 am : With the dollar down to 52-week lows against a basket of major foreign currencies, commodities have been trading markedly higher all morning. Their gains have the CRB Commodity Index up 0.9%.

Gold has been a strong underpinning of the CRB's move. The yellow metal hit record highs above $1118 per ounce earlier this morning; it is currently up 1.3% to $1117 per ounce.

Silver is also trading higher. The precious metal was last quoted at $17.69 per ounce, up 2.7%.

Oil prices have also been faring well this morning. Crude prices were recently quoted 0.9% higher at $79.80 per barrel.

Natural gas prices have followed suit. Contracts are being priced 1.5% higher at $4.54 each.DJ30 +85.32 NASDAQ +24.46 SP500 +11.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1893/432 mln/533 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2227/229 mln/597

10:00 am : Stocks recently recoiled after the S&P 500 failed to push through the 1100 mark, but buyers have since stepped back in to send the broad market index through the line of resistance so that it now trades at a fractionally better 2009 high.

Financials continue to power ahead. The sector is now up 1.7%. Materials stocks are also doing well, though. That sector is up 1.2%.

Relative outperformers in the previous session, defensive-oriented sectors are seeing more modest interest this session. As such, utilities, consumer staples, and health care are each up 0.3%.

Advancing Sectors: Financials (+1.7%), Materials (+1.2%), Industrials (+0.9%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.8%), Tech (+0.7%), Energy (+0.7%), Telecom (+0.4%), Consumer Staples (+0.3%), Utilities (+0.3%), Health Care (+0.3%)
Declining Sectors: (None)

Early movers: Trading up -- MSN +49.7%, CHLN +31.7%, REGN +13.9%, SMOD +12.1%, TOL +11.2%, ZOLL +8.9%, HTBK +8.7%, COLM +8.4%, AIXG +6.5%, WBS +6.2%, ING +6%, BZH +5.9%, RFMD +5.8%, RYL +5.7%, GERN +5.5%; Trading down -- STV -12.2%, MBLX -8.8%, SIGM -7.8%, CLWR -6.6%, FLO -6.2%, M -4.9%DJ30 +65.14 NASDAQ +19.95 SP500 +8.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1734/245 mln/577 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2051/139 mln/659

09:45 am : The S&P 500 made its way up to the 1100 mark in the first few minutes of trade, but it hasn't yet been able to push through the line, which was last reached two weeks ago. Still, gains remain solid as stocks refuse to back down from the resistance.

Financials are currently providing a key source of support to the broader market. The sector is up 1.5%, more than any other major sector in the S&P 500. Its gains stem from interest in shares of life and health insurers (+1.6%) and investment banks and brokerages (+1.5%).DJ30 +46.70 NASDAQ +14.76 SP500 +6.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1689/135 mln/535 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2050/84 mln/585

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.00. Premarket participants continue to prop up stocks, such that a higher start for the major equity averages looks to be in order. However, stocks could encounter resistance as the S&P 500 flirts with 1100. Stocks haven't touched that mark in a couple of weeks and they haven't been able to close above it for more than one year. Nonetheless, this morning's positive tone comes amid broad-based buying in overseas markets, thanks partly to some strong economic data out of Asia and solid earnings from some major industry players in Europe. A weaker dollar has also bolstered buying in the U.S. Though the Dollar Index has recouped part of this morning's loss, it is still down 0.1% to trade near the 52-week low that it set earlier this morning. In addition to helping stocks, the dollar's dip has also bolstered commodities. Gold has been particularly strong as it trades near $1115 per ounce, up 1.1%, in early pit trade; it had been as high as $1118 per ounce, a new record. As a reminder, bond markets are closed for Veterans Day and there aren't any major economic reports scheduled for release.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.00. Stock futures have eased back a bit from their morning highs as the dollar pares part of this morning's loss. Despite the greenback's improved position, commodities prices are still trading with strength. As such, the CRB Commodity Index is up 0.5% as oil prices climb 0.9% to $79.80 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. Gold prices are up 1.2% to $1115.30 per ounce. Gold prices hit record highs this morning that were just above $1118 per ounce.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.80. Europe's major averages are looking strong as Germany's DAX puts together a 1.4% advance amid leadership from BASF and Daimler (DAI). Daimler has now been a primary leader for two consecutive sessions. Losses in the bourse are limited. In France, the CAC is up 1.2% on the back of broad-based gains. Financial outfits BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, and Societe Generale are providing the most support. Credit Agricole made headlines by posting strong earnings. However, AXA (AXA) has been a bit of a laggard after being hit by a downgrade by analysts at Morgan Stanley. In Britain, the FTSE is up 1.2%, helped by metals and mining outfits Rio Tinto (RTP), BHP Billiton (BHP), and Anglo American. HSBC (HBC) has lent considerable support of its own; the Global banking giant posted a better-than-expected profit for the latest quarter. That news also helped it fare well in Hong Kong's Hang Seng, which closed 1.6% higher. In Japan, the Nikkei closed unchanged as gains by the yen offset the impact of a surprisingly large 10.5% month-over-month jump in domestic machinery orders for September. That data proved beneficial to shares of industrial outfits. As for the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, it settled 0.4% higher. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite edged down 0.1%, despite news that China's industrial output growth jumped to a 19-month high in October. The slip put an end to its streak of eight consecutive gains.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.30. Stock futures currently suggest that the S&P 500 will start the session markedly higher and just a couple of points shy of its 2009 high. The upbeat mood among participants this morning has been helped by solid gains in overseas equity markets, which have been partly bolstered by strong economic data out of Asia. This morning's positive tone also comes amid renewed weakness in the U.S. dollar, despite calls for maintaining a strong dollar from Treasury Secretary Geithner and reassurance regarding the dollar's role as a reserve currency from World Bank President Zoellick. With the greenback weakening further against foreign currencies, the Dollar Index is down 0.2% to a new 52-week low. That has helped send gold prices to new record highs; the yellow metal is currently being priced 1.3% higher at $1117.10 per ounce.

06:38 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.80.

06:38 am : Nikkei...9871.68...+1.00...0.00. Hang Seng...22627.21...+359.10...+1.60%.

06:38 am : FTSE...5289.08...+58.50...+1.10%. DAX...5688.75...+75.60...+1.40%.

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M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)


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