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 Post subject: November 5th Thursday 2009 Emini ES ($ES_F) points +24.25
PostPosted: Thu Nov 05, 2009 8:50 pm 
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Written By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip involving WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis) because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=354

Quote:
Had a lot of personal stuff to do today along with the fact I wanted to have a easy going trading day. In hindsight, should have taken the day off from trading because I wasn't able to finish some important personal stuff. Thus, may only do a few trades tomorrow and spend the rest of the day doing personal stuff.

As for my trading today, no losing trades (all winners) and I was able to reach my profit goal of +20 Emini ES points via finishing with +24.25 points even though I missed the best trade signal of the day via a Long signal @ 0945am est due to not being prepared to trade.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their efforts in trade signals while ignoring the impact on their trading results via market experience, discipline, money management, team collaboration, proper trading enviornment (home or office), market psychology, trader psychology (trading habits/routine and personal lifestyle). If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +24.25 Emini ES ($ES_F) points

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Dow Reclaims 10,000
Stocks surge after reports on jobless claims and productivity provide reassurance. Cisco's report and outlook helps techs. Big jobs report on tap for Friday.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: November 5, 2009: 6:17 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Thursday, with the Dow industrials topping 10,000, after the government reported a bigger-than-expected drop in jobless claims, and a number of retailers reported improved October sales.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 205 points, or 2.1%, closing at 10,005.96. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) climbed nearly 50 points, or 2.4%.

Both the Dow and Nasdaq saw the biggest one-day percentage gains since July 23.

The S&P 500 (SPX) gained 20 points, or 1.9%.

"Today's big news was that we saw fewer claims for unemployment benefits," said Mike Stanfield, chief investment officer at VSR Financial Services. "That suggests that the underlying economics are continuing to improve."

He said that this was reassuring to investors following several weeks of concerns about the pace of the recovery. It was also encouraging for investors ahead of Friday's monthly employment report.

Stocks have been volatile over the past three weeks, with the S&P 500 losing 5% through Wednesday's close on worries that the rally has gotten ahead of the recovery. Between March 9 and the peak on Oct. 19, the S&P 500 gained 63%.

Stocks ended mixed on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at historic lows near zero -- and said it will keep them low for an extended period.

The issue for markets is whether there have been enough positive developments of late to give stocks another leg up, Stanfield said. He said he thinks that the next leg up could be delayed, and that stocks are likely to churn in a range for the next six months or so. After that point, investors will have a better sense of how the economy is doing without the benefit of trillions of dollars in government stimulus, which many credit for the 3.5% rise in GDP in the third quarter.

Gains were broad based, with all 30 Dow issues rising, led by Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500), IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500), 3M (MMM, Fortune 500), United Technologies (UTX, Fortune 500) and Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, Fortune 500).

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers four to one on volume of 1.3 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by over three to one on volume of 2.25 billion shares.

Jobs: The government's weekly jobless claims report and third-quarter productivity report showed that the pace of layoffs is slowing, but also that employers are still not creating jobs.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment fell to 512,000 last week from 532,000 the previous week, the lowest level since January. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected 522,000 claims, on average.

Continuing claims, a measure of Americans who have been receiving benefits for a week or more, fell to 5.749 million from 5.817 million the week before. Economists thought it would fall to 5.750 million. It was the eighth decline in nine weeks. Although the decline could mean people are running out of benefits -- not that they are finding jobs.

Separately, the Senate and House both voted Wednesday to extend unemployment benefits by up to 20 weeks -- and extend the homebuyer tax credit. President Obama is expected to sign the bill into law Friday.

Another economic report showed that worker productivity is up, a good sign for corporate profits, but also further evidence that companies aren't hiring. Third-quarter productivity rose by 9.5% after rising 6.6% in the previous quarter. Economists thought it would fall to 6.5%.

"The productivity and jobless claims show a rapidly improving economy," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

But the key report this week is the October unemployment report from the Labor Department, due Friday, Detrick said.

Due before the start of trading, employers are expected to have cut 175,000 jobs from their payrolls after eliminating 263,000 in the prior month. The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, is expected to rise to 9.9% from 9.8% in September.

Retail: Shoppers remained cautious with their spending last month, with discounters and warehouse clubs seeing the best October retail sales.

On the upside, Costco (COST, Fortune 500) said sales at stores open a year or more rose 5% during the month, topping forecasts for a rise of 4.7%. Shares gained around 1%.

Gap (GPS, Fortune 500) reported sales rose a better-than-expected 4%, sending shares higher in morning trading. Shares gained 3.5%.

On the downside, American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) said sales fell 5% versus forecasts for a rise of 1.7%. Shares fell 11.6% in active New York Stock Exchange trading.

Company news: After the close Wednesday, Cisco Systems (CSCO, Fortune 500) reported weaker quarterly earnings and revenue that beat estimates.

The company's CEO, John Chambers, said current-quarter revenue would top estimates and that business conditions had bottomed at least six months ago. Cisco shares gained 2.8% Thursday.

Automaker Toyota (TM) reported a surprise quarterly profit Thursday and cut its annual loss forecast by over 50%

Shares of CVS Caremark (CVS, Fortune 500) slumped 21% in active trading after the company warned that 2010 profits at Caremark, its pharmacy benefits management division, are likely to slump by 10% to 12%. The company also said Caremark's CEO is stepping down. Drugstore CVS bought Caremark in March 2007

The news overshadowed the company's bigger-than-expected jump in quarterly profit.

World markets: European markets gained, reversing early losses. Asian markets tumbled.

Currency and commodities: The dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for December delivery fell 62 cents to settle at $79.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for December delivery climbed $2 to settle at $1,089.30 an ounce.

Bonds: Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 3.53% from 3.52% Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:25 pm : Broad-based buying on the back of a strong quarterly report from Cisco and a couple of pleasing economic reports helped stocks net robust gains ahead of tomorrow's potentially pivotal nonfarm payrolls report.

Cisco (CSCO 23.93, +0.64) won support for itself and other large-cap tech issues by posting better-than-expected top and bottom line results for its latest quarter and announcing that it has authorized an additional $10 billion to add to its share repurchase plan, which now stands at roughly $13 billion. Cisco went one step further and issued a solid outlook during its conference call.

Strength among large-cap tech issues helped hand the Nasdaq its best single-session percentage advance since July. Meanwhile, all 30 Dow components advanced and helped the blue chip index close above 10,000 for the first time in two weeks.

The positive tone among this session's participants was also helped by news that third quarter nonfarm productivity surged 9.5% in its preliminary report. That is considerably better than the 6.5% increase that had been widely expected. The surge marked the largest gain in productivity since 2003. It was fueled by the sharp increase in third quarter output and the considerable drop in hours worked. With job conditions still weak, unit labor costs dropped 5.2% in the third quarter. They were expected to fall 4.2%.

The latest initial jobless claims total came in 512,000, down 20,000 from the previous week and not as bad as the 522,000 initial claims that had been widely expected. Continuing claims came in at 5.75 million, which is in stride with what had been forecast and down from 5.82 million in the previous week. That decline, though, is primarily rooted in the trend that unemployed workers are losing their benefits, not finding jobs.

That trend has many market watchers looking ahead to the government's official nonfarm jobs report, which will be released before the opening bell Friday morning. The consensus forecast is that the October unemployment will hit 9.9%, which would be the highest level since 1982.

Despite concerns for that matter, all 10 major sectors finished the session with a gain. Only consumer staples failed to gain more than 1%. Disappointment over the pharmacy benefit management business at CVS Caremark (CVS 28.87, -7.28) overshadowed the company's better-than-expected earnings and additional share repurchase authorization, and caused the stock to drag on the consumer staples sector. Consumer staples, as a group, settled with a relatively modest gain of 0.6%.

Insurers also lagged as participants shunned Allstate (ALL 29.05, -0.57) and Prudential Financial (PRU 44.64, -1.92). Allstate missed the consensus earnings estimate, but Prudential actually posted a positive earnings surprise. Despite their weakness, financials still advanced 2.5%.

Only the consumer discretionary sector had a better gain. It advanced 2.6% in the face of mixed monthly same-store sales results from retailers.

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (+2.6%), Financials (+2.5%), Industrials (+2.5%), Materials (+2.4%), Tech (+2.2%), Utilities (+1.7%), Health Care (+1.6%), Energy (+1.6%), Telecom (+1.2%), Consumer Staples (+0.6%)
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +203.82 NASDAQ +49.80 NQ100 +2.4% R2K +3.2% SP400 +2.4% SP500 +20.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2125/2.23 bln/579 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2495/1.30 bln/542

3:30 pm : Commodities had a rather quiet session as the dollar made a modest 0.1% gain after sliding considerably in the previous session.

Despite that gain, gold prices settled roughly 0.2% higher at $189.30 per ounce. Silver prices also advanced; it closed 0.3% higher at $17.41 per ounce.

Oil prices traded with weakness for the entire session. Crude contracts closed pit trade with oil priced at $79.66 per barrel, down 0.9%.

Natural gas prices gained 1.3% to finish at $4.79 per contract. Prices had been up more than 2% immediately following a smaller-than-expected build in weekly inventories.DJ30 +195.13 NASDAQ +45.26 SP500 +18.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2065/1.79 bln/628 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2435/914 mln/575

3:00 pm : The S&P 500 is back at the 1065 level, which has marked a point of resistance this session. Though stocks haven't been able to extend their advance past the line, gains remain robust.

Materials stocks are putting together some of the best gains this session. The sector is up 2.3%, even though commodities prices and basic materials prices have traded in lackluster fashion this session -- the CRB Commodity Index is currently down 1.0%.DJ30 +193.32 NASDAQ +47.98 SP500 +18.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2038/1.66 bln/637 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2421/833 mln/587

2:30 pm : Insurers continue to trade with weakness. Among the poorest performers in the group, Allstate (ALL 28.41, -1.21) is down some 4% after it posted worse-than-expected earnings results for the latest quarter. Prudential Financial (PRU 44.41, -2.15) is also down considerably, irrespective of better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter.

Despite weakness among insurers, the financial sector has managed to make its way back to a gain of 1.6%. Diversified financial services stocks (+2.2%) and regional bank stocks (+2.5%) are providing leadership to the sector.DJ30 +166.49 NASDAQ +45.51 SP500 +16.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2038/1.55 bln/626 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2384/770 mln/604

2:00 pm : The stock market has set a fresh session high, which puts it back in-line with last Friday's opening levels. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq continues to sport an edge over its counterparts as it makes its way toward its best single-session percentage advance since July.

This session's buying effort comes ahead of a potentially pivotal nonfarm payrolls report, which will be released before the opening bell on Friday morning. The consensus forecast is that the unemployment level will hit 9.9%, which would be the highest level since 1982.DJ30 +169.06 NASDAQ +44.46 SP500 +16.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2031/1.41 bln/606 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2385/705 mln/614

1:30 pm : Stocks have made their way back to earlier session highs as buyers continue to offer a broad-based bid. As such, all 30 Dow components are sporting gains and more than 90% of the S&P 500's holdings are up.

Gains remain particularly strong among large-cap tech issues. That has helped the Nasdaq Composite and the Nasdaq 100 to 2.2% gains.

Despite the strong interest for stocks this session, Treasuries are trading flat. In turn, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note is slightly above 3.5%.DJ30 +167.92 NASDAQ +44.69 SP500 +17.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2022/1.31 bln/607 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2385/646 mln/600

1:00 pm : Stocks have spent the entire session sporting impressive gains as participants offer a broad-based bid following a couple of pleasing economic reports and a strong quarterly report from Cisco.

Cisco (CSCO 23.90, +0.61) announced last night top and bottom line results that bested analysts' expectations and authorized $10 billion to add to its share repurchase plan, which now stands around $13 billion. The company also issued during its conference call a solid outlook.

Initially that report didn't do much for the broader market, but interest in the stock has grown throughout this session and spread to the rest of the tech sector, which is the largest in the S&P 500 by market weight and is now sporting a 2.0% gain. That's better than any other sector at the moment.

Better-than-expected third quarter productivity data and modest improvement in weekly jobless claims totals helped firm up the mood of participants this morning. Third quarter preliminary nonfarm productivity surged 9.5%, which is far better than the 6.5% increase that was widely expected. Meanwhile, the latest initial jobless claims tally fell 20,000 to 512,000, which isn't quite as bad as the 522,000 initial claims that had been expected. Continuing claims came in at 5.75 million, which is in stride with what had been forecast.

Midday gains are strong and broad-based with all 10 major sectors in the green. Only consumer staples have failed to make their way to a gain of at least 1%. The sector's relative underperformance stems from considerable weakness in shares of CVS Caremark (CVS 29.06, -7.09). The company's better-than-expected earnings and additional share repurchase authorization have been overshadowed by concern for the company's PBM business. DJ30 +171.55 NASDAQ +43.49 SP500 +16.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1966/1.21 bln/601 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2377/589 mln/594

12:30 pm : Stocks continue to sport heady gains as they steady their descent from session highs. This session's advance is the best by percent in one week and also puts the S&P 500 on track for its fourth consecutive gain, which hasn't happened in roughly three weeks.DJ30 +154.62 NASDAQ +39.45 SP500 +13.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1972/1.11 bln/607 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2321/544 mln/619

12:00 pm : The major indices continue to pull back from earlier levels, but strong, broad-based gains remain.

Financials have been recently lagging on a relative basis, however. The sector had been up more than 1% at its session high, but it is now up a more tame 0.5%. Financials had surrendered gains of more than 1% in the previous session, too, but then fell sharply in late trade to settle with a loss of 1.5%.

The previous session's slide stemmed from weakness among insurers. They are having another weak showing this session. As such, multiline insurers are currently down 0.1%, while property and casualty insurers are down 1.1% and life and health insurers have fallen 1.7%. DJ30 +156.96 NASDAQ +37.67 SP500 +12.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1948/987 mln/605 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2240/479 mln/687

11:30 am : This session's advance has taken the S&P 500 back above its 50-day moving average, which stands at 1054, but the broad market index stalled a bit as it encountered the 1065 level. Despite its recent struggle to further extend its advance, the stock market has reclaimed the gains that it had surrendered during the previous session.DJ30 +172.38 NASDAQ +43.72 SP500 +16.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1966/862 mln/563 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2345/417 mln/561

11:00 am : Consumer staples stocks have been noticeably absent from this session's rally. The sector is currently up just 0.2%; every other major sector is up in excess of 1%.

Though the consumer staples sector's advancing issues outnumber its decliners considerably, the sector is being weighed down by a sharp drop in CVS Caremark (CVS 28.40, -7.75). The drug retailer actually posted better-than-expected earnings of $0.65 per share, but that has been overshadowed by a reduced outlook for its PBM business. The company also announced some reordering of its executive lineup and authorized a share repurchase program for up to $2 billion of common stock.

Whole Foods (WFMI 28.31, -3.76) posted better-than-expected earnings of its own for the latest quarter, but disappointed investors by issuing a downside forecast.DJ30 +179.86 NASDAQ +46.09 SP500 +17.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1983/730 mln/499 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2350/349 mln/508

10:30 am : Commodities are a bit mixed as the U.S. dollar makes a modest 0.1% rebound from its slide during the previous session.

Gold continues to win favor. The yellow metal is back near record highs as it trades at $1089 per ounce, up 0.1%. Silver is up fractionally at $17.41 per ounce after giving up some modest gains in recent trade.

Oil prices are currently down a bit. Contracts for crude last priced oil at $80.00 per barrel, down 0.4%.

Natural gas prices are spiking in the wake of the latest inventory announcement, which showed a build of 29bcf. A build of 31 bcf had been widely expected. Contracts were last quoted at $4.72 each, up 2.1%.DJ30 +148.42 NASDAQ +36.63 SP500 13.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1883/545 mln/542 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2247/267 mln/557

10:00 am : Stocks have extended their initial advance so that each of the three major indices are now sporting gains in excess of 1%.

Broad-based buying has also helped lift small- and mid-caps considerably. As such, the Russell 2000 and S&P 400 are up 1.8% and 1.3%, respectively.

Participants have also bid higher the Amex Airline Index, which is currently up 1.8%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Index, which is currently up 1.5%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 2.0%.

Advancing Sectors: Tech (+1.7%), Industrials (+1.6%), Health Care (+1.6%), Materials (+1.6%), Telecom (+1.4%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.4%), Utilities (+1.3%), Energy, (+1.3%), Financials (+0.7%), Consumer Staples (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +125.68 NASDAQ +35.10 SP500 +12.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1816/319 mln/507 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2198/157 mln/526

09:45 am : The broader equity market has opened this session with a solid, broad-based gain. Telecom is currently the best performing major sector; it is up 1.3%. Tech isn't far behind, though; tech is up 1.10% as a strong quarterly report from Cisco (CSCO 23.91, +0.62) provides strength to large-cap tech issues.

Despite gains in the broader market, retailers are in the red. As a group, retailers are down 0.4% following a raft of monthly same-store sales results, which were largely mixed.DJ30 +79.88 NASDAQ +21.59 SP500 +6.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1680/183 mln/548 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1966/89 mln/668

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +19.30. Stock futures have garnered support in the wake of better-than-expected third quarter productivity data and modest improvement in weekly jobless claims totals. The improved overall tone this morning has helped prop up European stocks, which had been trading with modest losses following the decision of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged, as expected. However, Bank of England did expand its bond buying program. With European stocks down initially and the U.S. dollar flat, stock futures had been trading near neutral in early premarket trade. The tepid tone among premarket participants seemed to look past a strong quarterly report from Cisco (CSCO). Cisco managed to best expectations for both the top and bottom line and even authorized another $10 billion for its share repurchase plan, which now stands around $13 billion. The company went one step further by issuing a solid outlook during its conference call. That has helped drive CSCO up nearly 4% to $24.18 per share in premarket trade.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +19.00. U.S. stock futures have garnered some additional support in the last few minutes, which has helped win support for Europe's major equity averages. Europe's major bourses had been modestly lower following news that both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England left their interest rates unchanged at 1.0% and 0.5%, respectively. The Bank of England also expanded its bond buying program by another 25 billion pounds to 200 billion pounds. In other economic news, Dow Jones reported that U.K. manufacturing output climbed 1.7% in September after falling 2.0% in August. The September increase marked the strongest monthly performance since 2002. Britain's FTSE is currently up a modest 0.1%. Metals players BHP Billiton (BHP) and Xstrata and banking issues Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and Lloyds Banking (LYG) are lagging, but Vodafone is providing some positive support. In Germany, the DAX is currently up 0.2%. Financials are taking a hit as Deutsche Bank (DB) and Commerzbank slide. In France, the CAC is currently up 0.4%. BNP Paribas has won support after posting a sharp increase in third quarter profit that helped it top expectations. Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) is currently weighing on trade, though. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index closed 0.4% lower, while Japan's Nikkei fell 1.3%. Japan's exporters slipped, but Toyota (TM) reported an unexpected quarterly profit after the close. Lenovo also posted a profit after the close that was double the consensus. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng slipped 0.6%. Shares of local property companies were out of favor. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite managed a 0.8% gain. That took it to a fresh three-month closing high.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.80. Stock futures have improved a bit in the wake of the latest dose of data. Third quarter preliminary nonfarm productivity surged 9.5%, which is far better than the 6.5% increase that was widely expected and up sharply from the 6.9% that was previously posted. Unit labor costs were down 5.2% in the third quarter, but that was a deeper drop than the 4.2% decline that had been forecast. Labor costs had dropped 6.1% in the second quarter. Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ending October 31 came in at 512,000, which isn't quite as bad as the 522,000 initial claims that economists had come to expect and is down 20,000 from the previous week. Meanwhile, continuing claims came in at 5.75 million, which is in step with expectations and down from 5.82 million.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.00. Both stock futures and the U.S. dollar are relatively flat this morning. The tepid tone comes amid another raft of quarterly reports, which have generally featured better-than-expected earnings, and precedes weekly jobless claims and third quarter productivity figures (8:30 AM ET). Overseas markets are trading modestly lower.

06:43 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.80.

06:43 am : Nikkei...9717.44...-126.90...-1.30%. Hang Seng...21479.08...-135.70...-0.60%.

06:43 am : FTSE...5081.10...-26.80...-0.50%. DAX...5424.12...-20.10...-0.40%.

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M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)


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