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 Post subject: November 2nd Monday 2009 Emini ES ($ES_F) points +52.25
PostPosted: Mon Nov 02, 2009 9:20 pm 
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Written By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip involving WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis) because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=351

Quote:
Volatility was excellent today in all the key trading markets along with confirmation via the directional intraday movements in the VIX itself. Therefore, here's a trading tip for those that see their profits rise or trading more consistently when the VIX changes direction...it doesn't matter which way the VIX goes as long as it's either UP or DOWN. Simply, a tight trading range VIX will produce low volatility price ranges that results in very difficult trading conditions and very few trade opportunities. You can also use the VIX to help with your position size management in that if you see the VIX in a choppy or low volatility trading range...lower your position size dramatically to better manage the increased risk exposure if you feel the need to trade.

As for my trading today, I didn't try anything new. Thus, I stuck to the trading plan involving the WRB Analysis Tutorials and the Trade Signal strategies (AJCTR, APAOR, STR and VTR).


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their efforts in trade signals while ignoring the impact on their trading results via market experience, discipline, money management, team collaboration, proper trading enviornment (home or office), market psychology, trader psychology (trading habits/routine and personal lifestyle). If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +52.25 Emini ES ($ES_F) points

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Stocks Stage Late-Day Rally
Wall Street musters gains to close a choppy session higher, as investors show reluctance after last week's selloff.
By Julianne Pepitone and Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com staff writers
Last Updated: November 2, 2009: 6:20 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Blue chips powered a broader rally Monday, with stocks ending higher after a volatile day on Wall Street that saw the Dow swing in a 180-point range.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 77 points, or 0.8%. The Dow had gained as much as 145 points and lost as much as 34 points earlier.

The S&P 500 (SPX) gained 7 points, or 0.7%, and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 4 points, or 0.2%.

After the close, Stanley Works (SWK) said it would buy Black & Decker (BDK, Fortune 500) in a $4.5 billion all-stock deal.

Stocks rallied in the morning after a key manufacturing index spiked to its highest level in three and a-half years in October. An upbeat reading on pending home sales and Ford Motor's big profit report also added to the morning bounce, giving investors a reason to jump back into stocks after last week's selloff.

But the morning rally turned sour in the afternoon as weakness in financial, tech and transportation shares spearheaded a broader retreat. By the last hour, short-term investors used the selling as an opportunity to jump back in and scoop up a variety of shares.

Stocks slipped at the end of October, bringing Wall Street's seven-month winning streak to a halt. The S&P 500 plunged 5% between the rally high of Oct. 19 and last Friday, with only a brief respite last Friday following a stronger-than-expected third-quarter GDP report.

Prior to that 5% selloff, the S&P 500 had surged 63% off of 12-year lows hit in March.

Analyst Kenny Landgraf of Kenjol Capital Management said further volatility in the coming weeks would not be a surprise, but that stocks should manage to move higher through year end. He expects the Dow will end the year around the 10,500 mark.

Results: Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) delivered its first quarterly profit in more than a year Monday, helped by the government's Cash for Clunkers program.

The company said it earned nearly $1 billion, or 29 cents a share. The automaker was expected to post a loss of 12 cents a share, according to Thomson Reuters estimates.

Ford shares rose 8.3% Monday.

Economy: A trio of economic reports released in the morning helped reassure investors that the recovery is on track.

A survey by the Institute for Supply Management showed nationwide manufacturing activity jumped to 55.7 in October, from 53 the previous month. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had predicted a more modest gain to 54. Numbers above 50 signal growth, while figures below 50 suggest contraction.

The Commerce Department said construction spending rose unexpectedly by 0.8%. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were anticipating a 0.5% decline.

Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors reported that the number of signed sales contracts to buy homes rose in September for the eighth straight month. Pending home sales rose much more than expected, by 6.1%, in September. Analysts were looking for a 1.2% increase.

CIT collapse: Small business lender CIT (CIT, Fortune 500) filed for bankruptcy protection Sunday as part of a reorganization plan that has the support of most of the company's debtholders. It was the fifth-largest in U.S. history.

CIT said it has already worked out a reorganization plan with bondholders that it expects to speed the Chapter 11 process and reduce CIT's debt by $10 billion.

But the filing knocks out common and preferred shareholders, and the stock plunged on the news, losing 65% in active trading.

Currency and commodities: The dollar gained versus the yen and the euro.

U.S. light crude oil for December delivery gained $1.13 to settle at $78.13 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after tumbling in the previous session.

COMEX gold for December delivery rose $19.10 to settle at $1,059.50 an ounce.

World markets: Global markets were mixed. European markets gained and Asian markets ended lower.

Bonds: Treasury prices slipped, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 3.41% from 3.38% Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Market breadth was mixed. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers by eight to seven on volume of 1.54 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers seven to six on volume of 2.42 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Better-than-expected economic data helped the S&P 500 ascend to a 1.5% gain, but a bout of selling and technical resistance sent stocks to a 0.7% loss before buyers stepped back in to drive stocks to a positive finish.

News that the ISM Manufacturing Index for October came in at 55.7, construction spending in September spiked 0.8%, and pending home sales for September made a 6.1% monthly increase helped bring about some early, broad-based buying, which sent all 10 major S&P 500 sectors into the green.

Financials were a standout as the sector climbed to a 2.5% gain. Investors in the sector paid little attention to news that regional lender CIT Group will enter bankruptcy after weeks of struggling to secure financing and put together a plan for sustainability.

However, financial stocks soon saw their gains reverse as weakness among insurers spread to the rest of the sector. That took the financial sector to a 1.7% loss before buyers stepped back in and helped it finish with a 0.8% gain.

Midsession weakness among financials undercut the broader S&P 500, which was having trouble extending its gains past its 50-day moving average of 1052. Such technical resistance combined with weakness in one of the stock market's leading sectors eventually caused the broader market to roll over and surrender all of its gains.

Stocks were able to garner some support as an underlying bid limited the stock market's move to the downside. That support inevitably helped it settle the session with a gain.

Materials stocks finished the session with some of the strongest gains. The sector closed 1.0% higher, partly helped by a weaker dollar, which oscillated for the entire session before settling roughly 0.1% lower. The greenback's move lower helped the CRB Commodity Index climb 1.2%.

Other solid gains were made by consumer staples stocks (+1.0%) and consumer discretionary stocks (+0.9%), which were helped by strength in shares of Ford (F 7.58, +0.58). The automaker posted this morning better-than-expected earnings and also announced an increase in market share.

In other earnings news, Humana (HUM 37.01, -0.57) posted better-than-expected earnings of its own, but offered a mixed forecast that weighed on the stock. Managed care providers still advanced 1.5% as a group, though.

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Staples (+1.0%), Materials (+1.0%), Industrials (+1.0%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.9%), Financials (+0.8%), Health Care (+0.6%), Energy (+0.5%), Tech (+0.4%)
Declining Sectors: Telecom (-0.4%), Utilities (-0.3%)DJ30 +76.71 NASDAQ +4.09 SP500 +6.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1277/2.43 bln/1414 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1627/1.55 bln/1411

3:30 pm : The Dollar Index has oscillated for the entire session, but commotidies were still able to log strong, broad gains in pit trade. As such, the CRB Commodity Index is currently up 1.2% as it snaps back from a 2.1% loss this past Friday.

Among the CRB's components, precious metals garnered particular support. Gold prices closed pit trade at $1054.00 per ounce, up 1.3%. Silver prices settled at $16.44 per ounce, up 1.1%.

Crude oil contracts also caught the interest of traders. In turn, oil futures finished the session priced at $78.09 per barrel, up 1.4%.

Natural gas fell out of favor, however. Contracts for the commodity closed at $4.83 each, down 4.3%.DJ30 +21.39 NASDAQ -8.23 SP500 -0.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 983/1.04 bln/1703 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1166/1.19 bln/1854

3:00 pm : One hour remains in this session and stocks continue to struggle to find their direction. That has left the major indices mixed.

Financials have pared their losses, however. The sector swung from a 2.5% gain to a 1.8% loss, but is now trading with a loss of just 0.1%.

Amid this session's whipsaw action, volatility has increased. That has sent the Volatility Index to a gain of 0.3%. Though that soundes quite insignificant for the VIX, it had been down nearly 7% earlier this session. In turn, this afternoon's advance puts it back near multimonth highs.DJ30 +23.81 NASDAQ -6.36 SP500 +0.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1001/1.89 bln/1676 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1178/1.09 bln/1835

2:30 pm : Action remains rather listless as the broader market continues to struggle in its efforts to find direction. Nonetheless, it has made its way out of negative territory once again.

The industrial sector has mustered a 0.2% gain after trading with a loss for the last hour. Its gain comes even though the sector's decliners outnumber its advancing issues.

Consumer discretionary stocks have also made their way into positive territory. The sector is now up 0.1% amid leadership from Ford (F 7.48, +0.48), which posted this morning better-than-expected earnings and also announced an increase in market share. DJ30 +37.64 NASDAQ -6.32 SP500 +2.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 920/1.74 bln/1727 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1202/1.00 bln/1810

2:00 pm : The major indices are back in negative territory, trading with varying losses. However, consumer staples stocks (+0.4%) and health care stocks (+0.2%) are successfully holding on to their gains. They are the only two major sectors to trade with gains.

The consumer staples sector is being led by Estee Lauder (EL 43.83, +1.33), which has garnered support since being upgraded by analysts at UBS. As for health care, its gain comes as the sector's advancing issues hold a 2-to-1 edge over its decliners.

The market's broad losses come as the U.S. dollar makes its way back into positive territory. It had been down more than 0.4% earlier.DJ30 -17.31 NASDAQ -15.54 SP500 -4.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 868/1.58 bln/1776 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1002/918 mln/1989

1:30 pm : Since falling into negative territory, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have managed to make their way back into positive ground. Still, they are nowhere near their session highs.

The Nasdaq continues to trade with a modest loss, however. Its relative weakness stems from declines in shares of large-cap tech names like Google (GOOG 531.08, -5.04), Intel (INTC 18.83, -0.28), and Research In Motion (RIMM 54.86, -3.87). Shares of RIMM were actually downgraded by analysts at Citigroup. The analysts also downgraded shares of Palm (PALM 11.18, -0.43), but upgraded Motorola (MOT 8.95, +0.38).DJ30 +24.94 NASDAQ -6.37 SP500 +1.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1010/1.45 bln/1604 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1348/837 mln/1631

1:05 pm : Better-than-expected economic data helped stocks add considerably to their opening gains, but a loss of momentum and some technical resistance has caused stocks to roll over.

Participants returned from last week's sizable losses with a willingness to step in and offer a bid. Their case was bolstered by news that the ISM Manufacturing Index for October came in at 55.7, which bested the consensus estimate of 53.0.

Additional data proved pleasing, as well. Construction spending in September spiked 0.8%, which was a surprise since a 0.2% decline had been forecast. Pending home sales for September made a 6.1% monthly increase, which was surprisingly strong since a flat reading had been expected.

Financials were the sector of choice in the early going and even made their way to a 2.5% gain, which helped take the S&P 500 back to its 50-day moving average. However, the financial sector soon came under renewed pressure and the broader market failed to push through technical resistance. In turn, financials are now down 1.5% and the broader market is contending with a marked loss of its own.

Despite the weakness among financial issues, regional banks are showing resilience. Even after CIT Group made public its plan to enter bankruptcy, regionals are still up 0.3%.

This session's slide comes despite a weaker dollar, which has lost 0.2% against a basket of major foreign currencies. Weakness in the greenback has often provided a boon for stocks during recent weeks, but participants appear to be looking past that.

The dollar's move lower has helped commodities, though. In turn, the CRB Commidity Index is up 0.5%. It was up more than 1% earlier, however. DJ30 -0.53 NASDAQ -8.51 SP500 -3.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 975/1.32 bln/1634 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1255/750 mln/1732

12:30 pm : Financials were up more than 2.5% at their session high, but have since surrendered a large chunk of those gains so that they are now trading with a less impressive 0.5% gain. The rollover by financials has undercut the broader market, though it continues to trade with a solid gain. DJ30 +83.13 NASDAQ +10.00 SP500 +6.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1373/1.11 bln/1201 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1886/628 mln/1092

12:00 pm : Stocks continue to sport strong gains as the major indices move sideways in a relatively narrow trading range. Action within that range has become a bit choppy, however.

After the Volatility Index spiked 24% in its sharpest single-session percentage gain of the year this past Friday, the Volatility Index is down nearly 7% this session. Despite that drop, the VIX is still above its 50-day moving average. DJ30 +115.71 NASDAQ +16.73 SP500 +11.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1498/996 mln/1064 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2085/562 mln/868

11:30 am : After moving along the unchanged mark earlier this session, the Dollar Index has fallen to a 0.3% loss. Such renewed weakness has provided a bit of a boon to stocks, which had recently retreated from their session highs.

The dollar's decline has also supported commodities. As such, oil prices are now up 1.9% to $78.45 per barrel, while gold prices are now up 1.9% to $1060.60 per ounce. Those gains have helped drive the CRB Commodity Index to a 1.0% gain. DJ30 +115.18 NASDAQ +15.56 SP500 +11.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1539/893 mln/1002 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2070/507 mln/870

11:00 am : Strong buying in the wake of a better-than-expected batch of data sent stocks sharply higher, but that momentum has stalled and stocks have since handed back a chunk of their gains. Still, the major indices continue to sport solid gains.

Of the major sectors in the S&P 500, only telecom is trading with a loss. The sector is currently down 0.4%. The next worst performing sector is utilities, which is actually up 0.2%.

Financials stand out as a primary leader this session. The sector is up 1.7% currently. It had been up more than 2% at its session high.DJ30 +97.57 NASDAQ +10.75 SP500 +9.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1439/747 mln/1065 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1957/425 mln/950

10:35 am : The stock market rose to fresh highs following this morning's econ data, while the US Dollar Index pushed to new lows.

December crude oil traded in positive territory for most of its overnight session and recently spiked just over $1 to move back near this morning highs of $78.25 per barrel. Currently, crude is trading 1.6% higher at $78.22 per barrel.

December natural gas also traded in positive territory for most of the overnight session, but began to move into the red just after 7:00ET. Natural gas recently hit fresh lows of $4.866 per MMbtu and is currently 2.4% lower at $4.925 per MMBtu.

The US Dollar Index hit fresh lows in recent activity, pushing precious metals to new highs (December gold $1063.40 per ounce, December silver $16.735 per ounce). Both precious metals have been trading in the black all session. In recent trading, gold is 2.1% higher at $1062.40 per ounce, while silver is 2.6% higher at $16.67 per ounce. DJ30 +138.23 NASDAQ +20.12 SP500 +14.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1588/557.8 mln/868 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2208/331.8 mln/671

10:00 am : Stocks have spiked on the latest batch of economic data, which proved much better than expected.

The ISM Manufacturing Index for October came in at 55.7, which is better than the 53.0 that was widely expected. It is also up from the 52.6 that was registered in September.

Construction spending in September spiked 0.8%, which is much stronger than the 0.2% decline that had been forecast by economists, on average. However, data for August was downwardly revised to a 0.1% decline from a 0.8% increase.

Meanwhile, pending home sales for September were up 6.1% month-over-month. That is much stronger than the flat reading that was widely expected and followed a 6.4% increase in August.

Advancing Sectors: Materials (+2.5%), Financials (+2.1%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.6%), Energy (+1.6%), Industrials (+1.4%), Consumer Staples (+0.9%), Health Care (+0.8%), Utilities (+0.7%), Tech (+0.5%), Telecom (+0.5%)
Declining Sectors: (None)

Early movers: Trading up -- HGSI +37.7%, EAC +21.7%, VRTX +12%, CRESY +11.4%, F +10.3%, AMLN +8.9%, UFS +8.8%, CTB +8.7%, ASFI +7.8%, IMMU +7.6%, TRA +7.6%, APT +7.5%; Trading down -- GTXI -35.8%, AIB -9.8%, DNR -9.6%, LDK -8.9%, RBS -8.1%, NICE -6.8%, IRE -6.2%, NTES -5.1%DJ30 +100.06 NASDAQ +7.97 SP500 +10.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1341/320 mln/1006 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1990/203 mln/780

09:45 am : The major indices are off to a mixed start as the Dow and S&P 500 both sport modest gains, but the Nasdaq Composite falls to a moderate loss. The Nasdaq's slide comes amid weakness in shares of large-cap tech issues.

Meanwhile, the broader market is garnering support from shares of financials (+0.5%), energy stocks (+0.5%), and materials stocks (+0.5%).DJ30 +15.75 NASDAQ -8.00 SP500 +1.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1064/173 mln/1215 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1497/117 mln/1186

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.50. Stock futures have eased off of their morning highs, but they continue to suggest that participants are bidding into place a modest bounce from the sizable losses that were logged last week. The buy-the-dip move has been a common trend in recent months. Positive interest had been further supported by a moderately weaker U.S. dollar, but the greenback has since reversed its losses. Buying in the face of a stronger dollar could be a telling sign of the stock market's resolve. However, participants await the ISM Manufacturing Index for October, construction spending data for September, and pending home sales numbers for September, all of which are due at 10:00 AM ET. The reaction to those announcements could also be suggestive of the stock market's underlying bias as it attempts to scale an increasingly difficult wall of expectations.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.30. Commodities are garnering support in early trade. As such, the CRB Commodity Index is up a healthy 0.6%. Oil prices are also up 0.6%. They were quoted at $77.45 per barrel in the opening moments of pit trade. Gold is up a robust 1.5%, though. It was last quoted at $1055.90 per ounce. Part of the interest in commodities stems from a moderatly weaker dollar, which is currently down 0.1% against a basket of major foreign currencies.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.80. U.S. stock futures continue to sport a moderate leade over fair value, but Germany's DAX has pared some of its gains as its declining issues take a slight edge over its advancers. It now trades with a fractional gain. BASF is among the primary decliners, while engineering giant Siemens (SI) is offering strength. In France, the CAC is up 0.5% amid strength in Total (TOT), BNP Paribas, and France Telecom. Meanwhile, Britain's FTSE is up 0.5%. BP PLC (BP), Rio Tinto (RTP), and Xstrata currently make up the primary leaders. Banking giant HSBC (HBC) is also providing support. In economic news Dow Jones reported that the euro zone's manufacturing sector grew in October for the first time since May 2008 as the Purchasing Managers Index climbed to 50.7 from 49.3. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 1.1% and Japan's Nikkei fell 2.3%. Exporters were hit by a stronger yen. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng shed 0.6%. The index narrowed losses amid upbeat manufacturing data from the mainland. The data also helped mainland China's Shanghai Composite advance 2.7%. The official PMI, released on Sunday, climbed to an 18-month high of 55.2 in October from 54.3.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.80. Amid a mildly weaker U.S. dollar and moderate gains in European markets, U.S. stock futures suggest that the S&P 500 is poised to make a slight bounce from the losses that were logged this past Friday. Better-than-expected earnings from Humana (HUM) and Ford (F) are also helping prop up premarket trade. Not all news this morning has been positive, though. Struggling lender CIT Group (CIT) has submitted bankruptcy filings and after regulators closed nine banks on Friday, the total number of failed banks in 2009 stands at 115 -- the most for a single year since 1992, according to Reuters.

06:40 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.00.

06:40 am : Nikkei...9802.95...-231.80...-2.30%. Hang Seng...21620.19...-132.70...-0.60%.

06:40 am : FTSE...5073.37...+28.80...+0.60%. DAX...5422.53...+7.60...+0.10%.

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M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)


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