Written By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis
(wide range body analysis)T
oday's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader
. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip involving WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis) because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=383
It's always good to close a good month of trading via the last trading day of the month being profitable. However, this month had a few problematic trading days that I need to fix involving my discipline to prevent such from becoming a big problem in December due to the fact that December is traditionally a tough trading month for me.FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.
In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htmhttp://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm
Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their efforts in trade signals while ignoring the impact on their trading results via market experience, discipline, money management, team collaboration, proper trading enviornment (home or office), market psychology, trader psychology (trading habits/routine and personal lifestyle). If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader
My Trading Performance: +16.00
Emini ES ($ES_F) points
113009wrbtraderPnLBlotterProfit.png [ 32.92 KiB | Viewed 2348 times ]
------------------------------ Bank Shares Boost MarketA late-session rally in the financial sector helps Wall Street trim losses as Dubai contagion fears ease. The tepid holiday sales and weak dollar were also in focus.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: November 30, 2009: 6:28 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A rally in bank shares helped take Wall Street higher Monday, at the end of a choppy session, as investors bet that the fallout from Dubai's debt problems won't have a major impact on U.S. institutions.
A weak dollar, rising commodity prices and the first wave of holiday retail sales reports were also in play during a tumultuous session on Wall Street.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 35 points, or 0.3%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index gained 4 points, or 0.4%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 6 points, or 0.3%.
Stocks were flat to weaker through most of the session, but managed a late-day run up, led by financials. The bank sector as a whole was taken down late last week on Dubai worries. But bets that any damage will be contained gave those stocks a lift late Monday.
"The market is really showing resilience," said Dave Hinnenkamp, CEO at KDV Wealth Management. "It's amazing that even with the Dubai situation, stocks are managing to rise."
The KBW Bank (BKX) sector index jumped 3.4%, thanks to a rally in components JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) and Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB, Fortune 500).
Monday marked the first full trading session in five days, with all financial markets closed for Thanksgiving and stocks only trading in a half-session Friday.
Stocks tumbled in Friday's shortened session on the problems in Dubai. The major indexes were also vulnerable to a selloff after touching 13-month highs in the previous session. That vulnerability stuck around through most of Monday's session, until the last-hour run up.
Stocks are likely to remain range-bound for the time being, said Dean Barber, president at Barber Financial Group. "I wouldn't be surprised if we are talking about the Dow 10,000 for a while."
Retail: The first wave of reports for the critical Thanksgiving holiday weekend indicate that more Americans turned out this year to take advantage of deals, but the shoppers spent less than a year ago, on average.
According to the National Retail Federation, around 195 million people shopped in stores and online between Thanksgiving and Sunday, versus 172 million a year ago. But average spending per person dropped to $343.31 from $372.57 a year ago. Total spending for the holiday was $41.2 billion, up around 0.5% from the $41 billion spent last year.
On Monday, the retail focus turned to the Internet, for a day called Cyber Monday, when shoppers at home and at work take to the Web to scour for further deals.
Dubai and global markets: The United Arab Emirates said Sunday that it will provide emergency support for banks in Dubai, cooling some worries that a debt default in the city-state could challenge the global economic recovery.
Stocks around the globe slumped last week after the Dubai government asked to defer payments on $60 billion in debt owed by Dubai World and Nakheel. Dubai World is the city-state's main investment arm and Nakheel is its real estate arm.
Dubai's construction boom has helped turn the Emirate into a world financial center and tourist hot spot. But Dubai has suffered from the same sort of real estate collapse that battered the U.S. economy, with values plummeting even as pricey projects continue to get underway.
Dubai stocks plummeted Monday, the first trading day in the region after a 4-day religious holiday. Asian markets managed gains Monday, after tumbling last week. European markets tumbled, with London's FTSE 100, Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 all losing at least 1%.
"What's happening in Dubai right now is another verification that the mountain of debt we've accrued in the world is unsustainable," Barber said.
AIG: AIG bucked the trend, missing out on the financial sector stock advance after an analyst at Sanford Bernstein cut its price target on the stock, saying that the insurer's loss reserves are too low.
Economy: The Chicago PMI, a regional read on manufacturing, rose to 56.1 in November from 54.2 in October. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought the index would fall to 53.3. Any reading over 50 indicates expansion.
Mortgage regulation: In other news, the Obama administration said it will up the pressure on mortgage companies that aren't doing enough to help borrowers who are at risk of foreclosure -- including imposing fines and sanctions.
Currency and commodities: The dollar gained versus the euro and fell against the yen.
COMEX gold for December delivery rose $6.90 to settle at $1181.10 an ounce, not far from an all-time high of $1,187 an ounce hit last week.
U.S. light crude oil for January delivery rose $1.23 to settle at $77.28 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Bonds: Treasury prices rose modestly, with the yield on the 10-year note holding steady at 3.20%, unchanged from Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.
Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, advancers beat decliners four to three on volume of 1.35 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, winners topped losers by a narrow margin on volume of 2.03 billion shares. Yahoo! Finance
4:30 pm : Stocks spent the afternoon trading with modest losses after rolling over in the early going, but they managed to make a late push into positive ground during the final hour of trade. The move was led by the financial sector, which actually had been unable to provide a lift to the broader market for most of the session.
Financial stocks outperformed the broader market with relative ease for the entire session. The sector settled with a 2.7% gain, which is more than triple the gain of the next best performing sector, utilities (+0.8%). The financial sector's strength came as banks (BKX 44.48, +1.44) rebounded from the previous session's slide, which came amid concerns regarding the exposure of banks to possible defaults by Dubai World, the corporate flagship of Dubai. Concerns over the matter persisted this morning as reports indicated that the central bank of the United Arab Emirates did not say that it would provide support specifically to Dubai.
However, Dubai World released word this afternoon that its talks with banks revolve around the treatment of roughly $26 billion in debt, a number that is much smaller than what had previously been considered. That recognition propelled financials higher so that they closed at their best levels of the session. The news also quelled some of the broader market's concern and helped it climb out of the red to settle near its own session highs.
The greenback oscillated amid concerns coming from Dubai. However, the Dollar Index surrendered its midsession gains and fell to a fractional loss, which also helped give support to the broader market.
Retailers still struggled, though. Their weakness stemmed from word that sales were soft during "Black Friday." As a group, retailers finished 0.5% lower, dragging the consumer discretionary sector to a 0.4% loss.
Advancing Sectors: Financials (+2.7%), Utilities (+0.8%), Materials (+0.7%), Tech (+0.3%), Industrials (+0.2%), Energy (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Consumer Staples (-0.5%), Telecom (-0.5%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.4%), Health Care (-0.3%)DJ30 +34.92 NASDAQ +6.16 SP500 +4.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1376/2.01 bln/1317 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1753/1.35 bln/1278
3:35 pm : The broader market recently broke into positive territory, marking the best levels of the afternoon, following reports quantifying the amount of debt affected in conjunction with Dubai World.
Natural gas futures sold off this session as record inventory levels weighed on participants' minds. The January contract moved lower throughout the session and closed near session lows at $4.84 per million Btu, down 6.7%. Still, the January contract is up modestly over the last three sessions following large gains last Wednesday.
After opening the pit trade modestly lower, crude oil futures traded in positive territory for most of the session. The January contract spiked about $1.50 with less than 30 minutes left in the pit trade following a knee-jerk reaction to headlines regarding the Iranian detainment of five British yacht members.
Precious metals opened the pit trade lower but were able to close the session with humble gains. December silver futures hit a session low at $18.11 per ounce in the morning but closed up 1.0% at $18.49 per ounce. December gold futures hit a session low below $1166 per ounce but closed up 0.6% at $1181.63 per ounce.
Meanwhile, March wheat futures were the biggest percentage gainer this session. They traded up 3.3% to $5.8875 per bushel ahead of the USDA's weekly crop progress report, due out in about 30 minutes.DJ30 +19.65 NASDAQ +1.36 SP500 +2.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1107/1.50 bln/1603 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1463/718 mln/1526
3:00 pm : The major indices are stuck in negative territory with modest losses. Financials remain the best performing sector this session, thanks to the strength of banks; financials, as a group, are up 1.2%, while the KBW Banking Index is up 1.8%. DJ30 -10.65 NASDAQ -7.37 SP500 -1.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 971/1.32 bln/1722 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1258/633 mln/1729
2:30 pm : Overall action remains rather slow as a lack of news flow gives few cues to participants. That has left the broader market to continue contending with selling pressure, though losses remain relatively limited in scope.
This session's modest losses follow sizable slides in Europe, but considerable gains in Asia. In Europe, Germany's DAX, Britain's FTSE, and France's CAC each closed 1.1% lower. In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed 3.3%, while Japan's Nikkei advanced 2.9%. DJ30 -6.50 NASDAQ -6.60 SP500 -1.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 967/1.22 bln/1714 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1271/583 mln/1711
2:00 pm : Stocks recently made an upward push toward the unchanged mark, but they were rebuffed so that they continue to trade with modest losses. This session's persistent weakness comes despite strength among financials (+1.1%), which have often been a source of leadership for the broader market. Should such weakness hold into the close, stocks will extend the previous session's 2.7% slide.
Still, the latest fit of weakness has left the S&P 500 on track to log just a fractional gain for November. That would mark an improvement from the 6.1% monthly loss that was logged in November 2008 and an improvement from the 2.0% monthly loss that was booked in October. DJ30 -8.23 NASDAQ -6.48 SP500 -1.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 967/1.12 bln/1682 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1314/542 mln/1622
1:30 pm : Largely unchanged from earlier levels, stocks are chopping along sideways. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index has given up its recent rebound. In turn, the greenback is now flat relative to a basket of foreign currencies.
Commodities are holding on to solid gains, though. The CRB Commodity Index had been flat in early action, but it is now sporting a 1.3% gain. That has been helped, in part, by a 0.9% gain in oil prices, which are at $76.70 per barrel, and a 0.3% gain in gold prices, which are at $1178.20 per ounce. DJ30 -11.48 NASDAQ -9.14 SP500 -1.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 941/1.04 bln/1701 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1255/487 mln/1701
1:00 pm : Stocks broke free from a mixed start to sport modest gains midmorning, but the advance proved short-lived as the major indices rolled into the red.
Broad selling pressure has undercut the stock market and left it to trade with modest losses. Pressure has been most considerable against retailers, which are down 1.5% amid news stories that suggest sales for "Black Friday" were soft.
Retailers aren't the only stocks to trade lower, though. Instead, weakness has been relatively widespread as declining issues take a near 2-to-1 lead over advancers in the S&P 500.
Despite declines in the broader market, financials have managed to steadily outperform this entire session. However, the broader market has struggled to follow its lead. Still, the sector is currently up 0.9% as it rebounds from a 2.7% slide in the previous session. The downward move came amid concerns about the exposure of banks to possible defaults by Dubai. Participants continue to assess the implications of the possibility that Dubai will renege on its debt repayments after reports indicated that the central bank of the United Arab Emirates has not specifically stated that it will provide support.
Concerns of rekindled turmoil have many market pundits watching to see if global participants seek safety in the U.S. dollar, which has traded inversely to stocks for several weeks. The greenback had been down modestly against other currencies in the early going, but it has since made its way to a 0.1% gain, which has cast a weight on the broader market.
There hasn't been much in the way of corporate or economic news today, though the latest Chicago PMI came above expectations. Still, it had minimal impact on trade. DJ30 -33.55 NASDAQ -13.19 SP500 -3.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 838/956 mln/1791 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1165/447 mln/1778
12:30 pm : Stocks have pared some of their losses, but remain in negative territory. Weakness remains rather widespread as eight of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 trade in the red -- financials (+0.8%) and utilities (+0.3%) are the only two to sport gains.
Retailers continue to underperform. The group is down 1.5%. Target (TGT 46.07, -1.63) is a primary laggard in the group; its stock has been unfazed by word that its executive officer bought 7,000 shares near $48 per share last week. DJ30 -40.51 NASDAQ -14.25 SP500 -4.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 811/889 mln/1805 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1134/417 mln/1805
12:00 pm : All three major indices have fallen to fresh session lows as sellers compound their efforts. The broad-based losses have left declining issues with a near 2-to-1 lead over advancers in the NYSE.
Despite this session's weakness, Treasuries have been unable to attract much interest. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is down five ticks. That has lifted its yield to roughly 3.23% from the six week low of 3.20% that was set late last week.DJ30 -31.74 NASDAQ -13.77 SP500 -3.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 759/783 mln/1837 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1100/367 mln/1810
11:30 am : Stocks are extending their slide from midmorning highs. That has put the Dow and S&P 500 within close range of their session lows, but the Nasdaq is already at its worst level since this session started.
Retailers are showing considerable weakness. As a group, retailers are down 1.4%. Their slide stems from reports that indicate soft sales figures this past Friday, which is often considered to be one of the busiest shopping days of the calendar year. However, disappointment from the limited success of retail efforts has taken the broader consumer discretionary sector to a 1.2% loss. DJ30 -28.64 NASDAQ -12.83 SP500 -3.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 935/673 mln/1743 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1122/314 mln/1739
11:00 am : Stocks recently made their way to modest gains, but they have since rolled over and are on their way back to the neutral line. The Nasdaq has already slipped into negative ground, however -- its relative weakness stems from the likes of Qualcomm (QCOM 44.61, -0.38) and Gilead Sciences (GILD 46.22, -0.34).
Small-caps and mid-caps have been unable to shake free of their weakness. Both groups remain in negative territory as the Russell 2000 trades with a 0.9% loss and the S&P 400 trades with a 0.4% loss. DJ30 +15.19 NASDAQ -4.44 SP500 +1.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 903/520 mln/1611 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1350/253 mln/1478
10:35 am : The stock market pushed lower at the open to today's current lows, but recovered shortly after to session highs. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index trended off session lows and moved back into positive territory. However, this was short-lived as the index is now modestly lower.
January crude oil pushed off recently-hit session lows of $75.13 per barrel and back into positive territory. Currently, crude is 0.8% higher at $76.70 per barrel. In natural gas, the January contract traded in negative territory for the majority of its overnight session and extended losses, hitting session lows of $4.885 per MMBtu. It is now trading 4.9% lower at $4.94 per MMBtu.
December gold and December silver recently pushed back into positive territory after chopping around in the red this morning. Currently, gold is 0.2% higher at $1176.70 per ounce, while silver is 0.4% higher at $18.38 per ounce.
In other commodities, Dow Jones reported that U.S. Steel (X 44.26, +1.21) was raised to Conviction Buy from Buy by Goldman, while Freeport-McMoRan (FCX 82.93, -1.21) was cut to Buy from Conviction Buy. Separately, The Wall Street Journal reports that U.S. coal stockpiles are climbing as supplies outpace demand from utilities and factories. DJ30 +29.86 NASDAQ +0.22 SP500 3.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 901/381.8 mln/1522 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1399/193.1 mln/1355
10:00 am : Action has become choppy in the first few minutes of the session. That has left stocks to trade in mixed fashion. Financials remain on top, though; the sector is up 1.2% as diversified banks spike 2.4% and regional banks jump 2.2%.
Meanwhile, oil prices have made their way into positive ground. Crude contracts were last priced at $76.35 per barrel, up 0.4%. That has helped the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (USO 37.61, +0.11) find higher ground after it had been down by roughly 0.5% in the first few minutes. The broader energy sector is up a modest 0.2%.
Advancing Sectors: Financials (+1.2%), Utilities (+0.3%), Materials (+0.3%), Industrials (+0.2%), Energy (+0.2%)
Declining Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (-0.4%), Health Care (-0.4%), Telecom (-0.4%), Tech (-0.2%), Industrials (-0.2%)DJ30 +5.14 NASDAQ -5.27 SP500 +0.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 838/249 mln/1509 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1209/133 mln/1455
09:45 am : Stocks in the broader market are mixed in the first few minutes of trade. Financials have moved sharply higher, though.
This past Friday the financial sector slid 2.7% amid concerns about the exposure of banks to possible defaults in Dubai, but the sector has since snapped back to sport a 1.4% gain this morning.
Separately, the November Chicago PMI came in at 56.1, which is better than the 53.0 that had been widely forecast and is up from the 54.2 that was posted in the previous month.DJ30 -3.47 NASDAQ -3.73 SP500 +0.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 932/144 mln/1350 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1189/86 mln/1406
09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.80. Slow news flow has given stock futures few cues and left them to trade flat this morning. The only economic report for this morning will be the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (9:45 AM ET), which is unlikely to have a major impact on trade. Market-moving data is expected later this week, though. The lack of meaningful announcements thus far has kept the focus of participants on the U.S. dollar, which remains modestly lower against a basket of major foreign currencies. Participants continue to assess the implications of potential debt default in Dubai, as well. According to reports, the central bank of the United Arab Emirates hasn't immediately offered support to Dubai.
09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.80. This morning's premarket action remains rather subdued as stock futures trade flat. Early action among commodities has also been quiet. Specifically, the CRB Commodity Index is fractionally higher as oil prices trade 0.3% lower at $75.85 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. Gold prices are down 0.2% to $1171.40 per ounce. The dollar remains down modestly.
08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Europe's major bourses are markedly lower as broad-based pressure takes its toll on trade. Britain's FTSE is currently off by 0.7%. Energy giant BP PLC (BP) and Lloyds Group (LYG) are leading losses. HSBC (HBC) is providing support, though. Its shares were upgraded by analysts at Bank of America's Merrill Lynch. In France, the CAC has fallen 0.8%. GDF Suez and BNP Paribas are under stiff pressure. France Telecom has countered with modest gains. Meanwhile, Germany's DAX is down 0.8%. Daimler (DAI) is a primary laggard in the bunch as declining issues outnumber advancers by more than 6-to-1. In Asia, markets fared quite well as Japan's Nikkei spiked 2.9%. Of its 225 members, only Chiyoda posted a loss. The broad gains came amid news that the Bank of Japan will act decisively in the event of renewed financial market turmoil -- a sign of fresh support for the economy. Shin-Etsu Chemical was a primary leader. Hong Kong's Hang Seng also benefited from broad support, which took 41 of its 42 components to higher ground. Banks were the primary beneficiaries as HSBC, China Construction Bank, Bank of China, and Industrial & Commercial Bank led the way. China Resources Power was the only name to log a loss. The Hang Seng settled with a 3.3% gain. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite settled 3.2% higher.
08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.50. Stock futures are flat as participants continue to consider the implications stemming from last week's news that Dubai officials will take over Dubai World and will seek to delay payments of the corporate flagship. According to The Wall Street Journal, the United Arab Emirates central bank has not offered specific support to Dubai after the federal govenment had already given $10 billion in support to Dubai earlier this year. Meanwhile, a Reuters article said that a government official from Dubai said that the Dubai government will not guarantee Dubai World's debts, such that creditors will be affected in the short term. Meanwhile, overseas markets are mixed as Asia's major indices have snapped back from sizable losses late last week and the major European bourses slide considerably. As for the U.S. dollar, it has slipped modestly against a basket of foreign currencies.
06:28 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.00.
06:28 am : Nikkei...9345.55...+264.00...+2.90%. Hang Seng...21821.50...+687.00...+3.30%.
06:28 am : FTSE...5197.12...-48.60...-0.90%. DAX...5610.85...-75.00...-1.30%.
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis
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