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 Post subject: October 30th Friday 2009 Emini ES ($ES_F) points +59.00
PostPosted: Sat Oct 31, 2009 5:41 am 
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Written By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip involving WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis) because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=66&t=350

Quote:
I did a lot of trades today (more than usual) but it was intentional because I'm getting more comfortable in using the Volatility Trading Report (VTR) via smaller intervals because it's a strong contrast to my normal trading style. In fact, I'm now using many different chart intervals more fluidly to increase my number of trade opportunities and when I want to take it easy...I simply just use one or two chart intervals. As for my trading today, as usual, I'm not concerned with win:loss ratios because minimizing my losses and maximizing my winners is so much more important prior to the next trade opportunity.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their efforts in trade signals while ignoring the impact on their trading results via market experience, discipline, money management, team collaboration, proper trading enviornment (home or office), market psychology, trader psychology (trading habits/routine and personal lifestyle). If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +59.00 Emini ES ($ES_F) points


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Stocks Take A Big Slide
Wall Street retreats in a broad-based selloff at the end of a down week and mixed month.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: October 30, 2009: 5:37 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks tumbled Friday, more than erasing the previous session's gains, as investors dumped a variety of shares at the end of a rough week and choppy month on Wall Street.

Bond prices rallied, sending yields lower, in a classic flight-to-quality. The dollar was mixed versus other major currencies. Oil and gold prices fell.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost nearly 250 points, or 2.5% to close at 9,712.73. The Dow lost as much as 278 points earlier. It was the Dow's biggest one-day selloff on a point basis since April 20.

The S&P 500 (SPX) index fell 30 points, or 2.8% to close at 1036.18 and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) shed 52 points, or 2.5% to close at 2045.11.

The selloff was broad based, with all 30 Dow components declining. Energy prices and stocks were hit hard as the dollar turned mixed and the financial sector erased the 4% gain it accrued Thursday.

"We might finally be seeing the 5% to 15% correction that many people have been calling for since the summer," said Ron Kiddoo, chief investment officer at Cozad Asset Management.

Since peaking on Oct. 19, the S&P 500 has lost 5.6% as of Friday.

"I think the run has just gotten tired," he said. "A lot of people who wanted to get in over the last two months have done that, so maybe we need to sell off more to get more people back in."

Since bottoming at a 12-year low on March 9, the S&P 500 has rallied 57.6% as of Thursday's close. But the gains had been more robust until about a week ago, when enthusiasm about the better-than-expected quarterly results gave way to worries about the pace of the recovery.

"I think there was a high level of complacency and confidence about the rally ahead of this week," said Larry Glazer, managing director at Mayflower Advisors.

He said that the complacency was demonstrated by the CBOE Volatility (VIX) index, or the VIX, which had fallen to 14-month lows at the end of last week as investors bet that the stock advance was likely to keep charging.

The VIX and the market tend to move in opposite directions. On Friday, the VIX surged 24% as stocks tumbled.

Down week on Wall Street: The major indexes were lower or flat for the first three days of the week, finally rallying Thursday after a better-than-expected third-quarter GDP report. It was the first positive reading for the economy in a year, reassuring investors that the recovery is on track.

The Dow jumped 2% and the S&P 500 soared 2.3%, both posting the biggest one-day percentage jumps in three months. The Nasdaq gained 1.8%.

But Thursday was an exception in an otherwise volatile week that saw positive earnings and economic news mostly treated with indifference.

Glazer said the firming up of the dollar has played a role in some of the market's problems this week. The weak dollar had boosted dollar-traded commodity prices and commodity stocks over the last few weeks. But the greenback has recovered some this week, pressuring oil and gold stocks as well as multi-national companies that benefit from a weak dollar.

For many mutual funds and hedge funds, the end of October is also the end of the fiscal year, so last-minute rebalancing may have added to the volatility.

All three major gauges ended lower for the week. For the month, the Dow ended virtually unchanged, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both posted slim declines.

Economy: Friday brought a heavy batch of economic news, including readings on personal income and spending, consumer sentiment and manufacturing.

Personal income was unchanged in September, in line with economists' forecasts, after rising 0.1% in the previous month. Personal spending fell by 0.5%, as expected, after rising 1.4% in the previous month.

The core PCE, the report's inflation component, rose 0.1%, as it did in August. Economists thought it would rise 0.2%.

The Chicago PMI, a regional read on manufacturing, rose to 54.2 in October from 46.1 in September, crossing above the 50 mark that signifies expansion. Economists thought it would rise to 49.

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was revised up to 70.6 from 69.4 earlier this month. Economists expected a reading of 70.

Quarterly results: With 69% of the S&P 500 having already reported results, profits are on track to have fallen 17.5% from a year ago, according to the latest results from Thomson Reuters.

Dow component Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) reported a 51% drop in quarterly profit due to lower oil and gas prices. Earnings slipped from a year ago, but nonetheless beat analysts' expectations. Revenue fell from a year ago and missed analysts' forecasts. Shares fell 1.8%.

Other energy stocks fell too, including Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500), Halliburton (HAL, Fortune 500) and Schlumberger (SLB).

On the move: All 30 Dow stocks retreated, led by Chevron and Exxon, 3M (MMM, Fortune 500), IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), United Technologies (UTX, Fortune 500) and financial shares American Express (AXP, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Travelers Companies (TRV, Fortune 500).

Currency and commodities: The dollar gained versus the euro, after falling to a 14-month low last week. The greenback tumbled versus the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for December delivery retreated $2.87 to settle at $77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after rallying 3% in the previous session.

COMEX gold for December delivery fell $6.70 to settle at $1,040.40 an ounce.

World markets: Global markets were mixed. European markets declined in afternoon trading and Asian markets ended higher.

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.38% from 3.49% Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers topped winners by five to one on volume of 1.65 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers four to one on volume of 2.69 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:20 pm : The heady gains that followed a better-than-expected GDP headline number in the previous session proved unsustainable as sellers returned to action Friday to send stocks sharply lower. Losses were broad-based as nearly 95% of the issues in the S&P 500 logged losses, which contributed to the worst weekly loss in five months for the broad market measure.

Financials were the worst hit of the major sectors. They had actually helped lead broad-market gains in the previous session, but plummeted to a 4.8% loss this time around. Within the sector, life and health insurers shed 6.1%. Diversified financial services stocks dropped 6.3%.

Materials stocks and energy stocks were also hit hard, however. The two sectors fell 3.8% and 3.5%, respectively. Their case was worsened by the drop in commodities and energy prices amid a stronger dollar, which advanced 0.6% against a basket of foreign currencies. That marked the greenback's sixth gain in seven sessions.

Even integrated oil giant Chevron (CVX 76.54, -1.41) couldn't shake free from sellers, despite posting better-than-expected third quarter earnings of $1.72 per share. Not a single sector in the S&P 500 proved immune to this session's selling effort. In turn, each finished with a loss of at least 1%. That helped take the S&P 500 well below its 50-day moving average of 1052 and hand the stock market its first monthly loss since an 11% monthly drop in February.

There wasn't any immediate cause for this session's decline, though some market watchers point out that stocks have had an increasingly difficult time of climbing higher since making their strong runs in recent months. Others have pointed out that there may be some month-end portfolio rebalancing and window dressing accounting for the recent whipsaw trade.

Nonetheless, the concerted selling effort brought about a spike in volatility. That sent the Volatility Index, often dubbed the Fear Gauge, up 24%, which marks its sharpest single-session spike by percent this year. Moreover, the VIX now stands at its highest level since July. Complementing the spike in the VIX is an elevated put-to-call ratio of 1.2, which is indicative of positioning for downside protection.

The broader market's negative bias this session overshadowed what was generally a solid batch of economic data. Specifically, personal income for September was flat, as expected, and spending fell 0.5%, as expected. That data was already included in the third quarter GDP data that was released Thursday, though.

The October Chicago PMI bounced to 54.2, which bested the 49.0 consensus, but the report was largely ignored.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Financials (-4.8%), Materials (-3.8%), Energy (-3.5%), Industrials (-3.0%), Consumer Discretionary (-2.7%), Tech (-2.4%), Telecom (-2.1%), Utilities (-1.9%), Consumer Staples (-1.8%), Health Care (-1.5%)DJ30 -249.85 NASDAQ -52.44 NQ100 -2.6% R2K -3.0% SP400 -2.8% SP500 -29.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 494/2.59 bln/2191 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 405/1.65 bln/2655

3:30 pm : A stronger dollar and a downbeat mood among market participants conspired to take the CRB Commodity Index down 2.1%. That leaves the CRB down 3.5% this week.

Oil was a primary drag on the CRB this session. Contracts for crude settled pit trade priced 3.6% lower at $77.00 per barrel.

Natural gas held up relatively well against this session's headwinds, but still saw contract prices fall 0.3% to $5.05 each.

Gold prices fell 0.6% to $1040.50 per ounce. Silver prices shed 2.3% to settle at $16.27 per ounce.DJ30 -252.72 NASDAQ -54.43 SP500 -30.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 520/2.01 bln/2156 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 375/1.03 bln/2673

3:00 pm : Expectations for volatility have soared with this session's slide. In turn, the Volatility Index, often dubbed the "Fear Gauge," is up more than 23% this session. That surge marks the sharpest spike for the VIX this year. Additionally, the spike has taken the VIX to its highest level since July.

Heightened expectations for volatility come amid the S&P 500's worst single-session percentage drop since July. DJ30 -233.68 NASDAQ -48.67 SP500 -27.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 520/1.79 bln/2128 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 372/901 mln/2662

2:30 pm : Broad-based losses continue to hamper the major equity averages. Amid their decline, Treasuries have garnered support. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is up some 25 ticks, which has pushed its yield back down to almost 3.4% after it was up to almost 3.5% in the previous session. DJ30 -221.89 NASDAQ -48.44 SP500 -26.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 515/1.65 bln/2138 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 393/807 mln/2620

2:00 pm : The downward trend to this session remains intact as stocks trade just a bit above their session lows. Weakness remains widespred as 95% of the S&P 500 components trade with losses.

Declines have also been considerable this session. All 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 are contending with losses in excess of 1%. Seven of them are trading with losses of more than 2% and three have lost more than 3%.DJ30 -244.11 NASDAQ -50.02 SP500 -28.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 500/1.51 bln/2126 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 369/724 mln/2621

1:30 pm : This session's slide has completely erased the previous session's outsized advance, which came as participants reacted to a better-than-expected headline GDP number. With the previous session's gains erased, stocks are facing a week-to-date loss of almost 4%. Such a loss would mark the market's worst weekly decline since May.

Financials remain the primary drag on this session's trade. The sector has dropped a sharp 4.3%. Regional lender CIT Group (CIT 0.77, -0.18) has been a particularly poor performer. The company recently confirmed that it has entered into a restructuring plan with Carl Icahn and has lined up an incremental credit line. CIT had been facing possible bankruptcy.DJ30 -245.01 NASDAQ -49.67 SP500 -28.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 524/1.35 bln/2088 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 413/639 mln/2540

1:05 pm : The stock market is posting significant losses at midday after opening with losses and then coming under additional pressure. There is no clear catalyst for the selling -- corporate earnings reports were mostly better than expected and economic data was in-line or better than forecasts.

We feel that yesterday's move in response to the Q3 report was overdone, and may be fueling some of the selling interests today. Losses are broad-based as all ten sectors trade lower. The worst performing areas are financials (-3.3%), energy (-3.1%) and materials (-3.4%).

In earnings news, Chevron (CVX 75.88, -2.07) reported third quarter earnings that beat the consensus estimate ($1.72, versus the $1.47 consensus). Still, shares are down 2.7%.

MetLife (MET 34.35, -2.49) is underperforming after reporting in-line third quarter earnings of $0.87 per share and a net loss of $650 million due to some $887 million in derivative losses.

In other news, CIT Group (CIT 0.75, -0.20) is down 21% on concerns that the commercial lender will have to file for bankruptcy protection.

In economic news, the personal income and spending report in September brought no surprises as it was already included in GDP data released yesterday. Spending dropped 0.5%, while income was flat.

The October Chicago PMI report, released at 9:45ET, was largely ignored by the market. Chicago area manufacturing survey bounced to 54.2 , indicating expansion in the region. That was better than the 49.0 consensus.DJ30 -230.05 NASDAQ -47.71 SP500 -27.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 532/1.21 bln/2065 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 455/559 mln/2494

12:25 pm : The major indices trade near recently reached session lows with broad-based losses.

At current levels, the S&P 500 is poised to post a loss of more than 2% for the month, which would break a seven month streak of positive numbers.DJ30 -162.41 NASDAQ -32.80 SP500 -18.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 655/975 mln/1896 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 586/441 mln/2309

12:00 pm : Stocks have extended their losses so that they trade at fresh session lows. The downturn has taken the S&P 500 below its 50-day moving average of 1052, but it has yet to fully erase the gains that were registered in the previous session.

Selling among financials, energy, and materials stocks is leading the push lower. Financials are now down 3.2%, energy has lost 3.0%, and materials have dropped 2.9%.

There isn't a single major sector in the S&P 500 sporting a gain. Only the health care sector and consumer staples sector have manged to limit their losses to less than 1%. They are down 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively.DJ30 -159.84 NASDAQ -34.20 SP500 -18.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 646/852 mln/1897 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 586/382 mln/2264

11:30 am : After some choppy trading, the major indices are back at session lows. For the S&P 500, that means trading along the 1055 line, which offered technical support to the broader market measure earlier in the session. The S&P 500's 50-day moving average is just a few points below 1055 at 1052, however.

The stock market's drift to earlier lows comes as the U.S. dollar adds to its gains. That has left the Dollar Index with a 0.6% gain as it makes its way toward its sixth gain in seven sessions.DJ30 -86.76 NASDAQ -16.78 SP500 -10.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 762/687 mln/1742 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 754/325 mln/2049

11:00 am : Small-cap stocks are trading with outsized losses. Specifically, the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index is down a considerable 1.2%. More than 80% of its components are trading with losses, yet primary weakness stems from Novatel Wireless (NVTL 8.98, -3.21), which topped earnings expectations for the latest quarter, but went on to issue mixed guidance for the fourth quarter.

Zales (ZLC 5.38, -1.01) is also weighing on the Russell 2000. The company posted early this morning a loss for its latest quarter, while a Reuters report has stated that the SEC is investigating accounting issues at the company. However, the report also stated that representatives from Zales do not expect the investigation to have a material impact.DJ30 -68.02 NASDAQ -8.87 SP500 -7.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 772/563 mln/1683 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 790/277 mln/1978

10:30 am : The Dollar Index is up 0.3% to trade near its morning highs. That has weighed on commodities and caused them to surrender some of their gains from the previous session.

Gold was last quoted 0.5% lower at $1041.80 per ounce. Silver was last quoted 1.1% lower at $16.47 per ounce.

Oil prices are catching the brunt of this morning's selling effort. The commodity is being priced at $78.30 per barrel, down 2.0%.

However, natural gas prices are garnering support. After struggling in the face of broad buying during the previous session, natural gas contracts are now sporting a 2.8% gain at $5.21 each.DJ30 -74.14 NASDAQ -11.18 SP500 -7.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 702/423 mln/1680 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 723/224 mln/2011

10:00 am : The final reading for the October Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan came in at 70.6, which is a tad higher than the consensus estimate of 70.0. The reading hasn't done much to lift stocks, however. Instead, the major indices are near their morning lows; losses remain broad based.

Financials continue to stand out as the worst performing sector in the early going. The sector is now down 1.7%.

Materials aren't holding up against this morning's pressure much better, though. The materials sector has fallen 1.4%. That drop stems from a confluence of broader market weakness and a rebound by the U.S. dollar, which has gained 0.3% against a basket of major foreign currencies.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Financials (-1.7%), Materials (-1.4%), Energy (-0.9%), Telecom (-0.7%), Industrials (-0.5%), Utilities (-0.2%), Tech (-0.2%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.1%)
Neutral: Health Care, Consumer StaplesDJ30 -63.10 NASDAQ -11.74 SP500 -8.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 682/258 mln/1618 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 672/157 mln/2005

09:45 am : The major indices started the session with modest losses, but price action has become rather erratic.

Weakness, though relatively moderate, is widespread. Losses are steepest among financial stocks, which are down 1.5% as they grapple with renewed selling pressure among banks. That has the KBW Banking Index down 1.4% in early action.

Separately, the Chicago PMI for October came in at a better-than-expected 54.2. The consensus was pegged at 49.0, following the 46.1 that was posted the previous month.

The final reading for consumer sentiment in October from the University of Michigan is due at the top of the hour.DJ30 -20.56 NASDAQ -7.03 SP500 -3.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 803/132 mln/1405 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 906/101 mln/1712

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.00. Stock futures continue to point to a moderately lower start for the session. That would keep the stock market on track for another weekly loss, which currently stands in excess of 1%. The weekly downturn would be the fourth in six weeks of trade. This morning's tepid tone hasn't stemmed from any disappointing announcement, but rather the result of a breather following the outsized gains that were registered on the back of better-than-expected GDP data during the previous session. There's more data on tap for participants to digest, though. Personal income and spending numbers for September were already released, but their in-line results didn't cause much of a stir. Participants get the Chicago PMI report at 09:45 AM ET and the final consumer sentiment reading for October from the University of Michigan at 10:00 AM ET. The U.S. dollar remains a key backdrop to trading, too. The greenback is currently putting together a solid rebound, which has taken the Dollar Index up 0.3% after it logged in the previous session its first loss in six sessions.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.00. Action in Europe is a bit mixed amid news of heightened unemployment in the continent. According to Dow Jones, unemployment in the 16 countries that use the euro escalated to the highest level for more than 10 years in September. The article said euro-zone jobless rate stands at 9.7% for September, up from 9.6% in August. Meanwhile, Britain's FTSE is currently up 0.2% as banks gain. Lloyds Banking Group (LYG) has is benefiting from plans to raise capital as an alternative to a government-backed scheme and word that it was upgraded by analysts at BNP Paribas and Credit Suisse. However, metals and mining giants BHP Billiton (BHP) and Xstrata are lagging and weighing on trade. In economic news, British consumer confidence in October hit its highest level since January 2008. In Germany, the DAX is currently down 0.6% amid news that retail sales in Germany unexpectedly fell for a straight second month in September. In France, the CAC is currently down 0.3%. Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) has slumped, though. The world's largest supplier of fixed-line phone networks posted a third quarter net loss that was deeper than expected. Japan's Nikkei closed with a 1.5% gain. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Bank of Japan decided to end corporate debt buying measures at the end of December as planned, but the central bank unanimously voted to leave the unsecured overnight call loan rate unchanged at 0.1%. Tech provided leadership amid improved earnings prospects, while shares of exporters climbed on news that the U.S. economy had returned to growth. After the bell, Sony (SNE) posted a loss for the fourth consecutive quarter, but trimmed its full year loss forecast. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng climbed 2.3%. Central bank governor Xiaochuan said that Beijing would stick to an appropriately loose monetary policy. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China and Bank of China gained after each reported a jump in quarterly profit. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 1.2% higher. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 1.5%.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.30. Stock futures continue to trail value, though their position has improved a bit from earlier levels amid the latest dose of economic data. As expected, personal income for September was unchanged, which follows a 0.1% increase for August. Personal spending in September fell 0.5%, as expected. it had increased 1.4% in the previous month. Month-over-month, Core PCE increased 0.1%, which is slightly below the expected increase of 0.2%. Core PCE made a monthly increase of 0.1% in August, as well. Year-over-year, Core PCE increased 1.3%, as expected. It had also made a yearly increase of 1.3% in August.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.30. Despite a strong previous session and steady buying into its close, stock futures are down a bit this morning. The dulled mood comes ahead of another round of economic data, which features personal income and spending numbers for September (8:30 AM ET), the Chicago PMI for October (9:45 AM ET), and the final reading on consumer confidence from University of Michigan (10:00 AM ET). Separately, earnings continue to come across news wires; results have generally been positive, but there haven't been any market movers in the bunch.

07:53 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.80.

07:53 am : Nikkei...10034.74...+143.60...+1.50%. Hang Seng...21752.87...+487.90...+2.30%.

07:53 am : FTSE...5140.92...+3.20...+0.10%. DAX...5549.70...-37.80...-0.70%.

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M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)


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