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 Post subject: October 23rd Friday 2009 Emini ES ($ES_F) points +84.00
PostPosted: Fri Oct 23, 2009 5:08 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=66&t=345

Quote:
I was very bearish out of the gate on the market (see commentary in #FuturesTrades log above) due to a bearish APAOR short signal around 0915am est. Simply, my first trades after 0930am est was chasing that 0915am est trade that was also a key change in supply demand (WRB S/R Zone) that the market respected. Also, today was my biggest profit gain of the year along with a rare perfect trading day (no losers).


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their efforts in trade signals while ignoring the impact on their trading results via market psychology, trader psychology (trading habits/routine and personal lifestyle). If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +84.00 Emini ES ($ES_F) points

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Stocks Tumble After Rally
Wall Street retreats, with the Dow giving up the 10,000 level as the dollar firms and energy stocks fall. Strong results from Microsoft and Amazon boost those stocks.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: October 23, 2009: 4:15 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks slumped Friday, in a broad-based selloff that was especially hard on the leaders of the most recent leg of the rally - banks, energy shares and transportation companies.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 109 points, or 1.1%, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 (SPX) index lost 13 points or 1.2%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 10 points or 0.5%.

Stocks had risen in the morning after upbeat results from Microsoft and Amazon.com and an encouraging reading on existing home sales. But the tone turned negative in the afternoon, as investors cashed out of some of the biggest leaders of the recent rally.

Since bottoming at a 12-year low on March 9, the S&P 500 has surged over 62% through its rally high earlier this week.

Although repeated calls for a big 10% to 15% selloff haven't materialized, smaller selloffs of 1% to 3% have popped up periodically during the last 7 months. Friday appeared to be an extension of that trend.

For individual sectors, the declines were bigger.

The Dow Jones Transportation (DJT) average, which includes railroads, truckers and airlines, had surged 88% through its rally high earlier this week. On Friday it lost more than 3.5%.

Some market pros have said the rise in the transports is a good indicator of the economic recovery. But downbeat comments Friday from railroads Union Pacific and Burlington Northern put that optimism into question. It also gave investors an opportunity to cash out after the massive rise in the sector.

The KBW Bank (BKX) index, which tracks 20 financial firms, including Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500), has rallied over 140% between March and its peak this week. The bank sector slumped as well, losing 1.9%.

A strong U.S. dollar - bouncing back from one-year lows against a slew of other currencies - added to the downturn Friday. A strong dollar pressures dollar-traded commodities including oil, which in turn drags on energy shares. Big multinationals that benefit from a weak dollar also slipped.

Stocks rallied Thursday following upbeat earnings from 3M (MMM, Fortune 500), AT&T (T, Fortune 500) and other blue chips. The advance propelled the Dow back above 10,000 and the S&P 500 closer to 1,100. But that advance proved unsustainable Friday, even though corporate news was upbeat.

Results: Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) reported weaker quarterly sales and income Friday morning that easily surpassed analysts' estimates. Cost cutting and strong sales of its Windows operating system fueled the advance.

On Thursday, Microsoft rolled out its new Windows 7 operating system, expected to boost PC sales in the coming months.

Shares of Microsoft, a Dow component, rose over 9% Friday morning, touching a one-year high, before giving up nearly half of that advance.

Late Thursday, Dow component American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) reported weaker quarterly sales and earnings that beat analysts' forecasts. Shares fell 4% Friday.

Also late Thursday, Amazon.com (AMZN, Fortune 500) reported a big surge in earnings and revenue, thanks in part to strong sales of its e-reader, Kindle. Shares jumped 25% Friday, hitting a ten-year high.

So far, 199 companies, or 40% of the S&P 500, have reported results. Profits are currently on track to have fallen 18.2% versus a year earlier, according to the latest from Thomson Reuters. Revenue is expected to have dropped over 10% from a year ago.

Bernanke: The Federal Reserve chairman, speaking Friday, said that the financial turmoil is abating, but that lawmakers have to reform the system to help prevent a crisis of this magnitude happening again.

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve proposed a broad overhaul of pay policies at 28 of the largest U.S. banks. Also Thursday, White House "pay czar" Kenneth Feinberg called for the seven biggest recipients of federal bailout money to cut in half what they pay their top executives.

Economy: Existing home sales jumped to a 5.57 million unit annual rate in September, according to a National Association of Realtors report released Friday morning. Sales were expected to have risen to a 5.35 million unit annual rate from 5.1 million unit annual rate in August.

World markets: Global markets were mixed. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 gained 0.7%, France's CAC 40 lost 0.3% and Germany's DAX gave up 0.4%. Asian markets ended higher.

Bonds: Treasury prices tumbled, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 3.46% from 3.42% late Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Currency and commodities: The dollar gained versus the euro, after falling to a 14-month low earlier in the week. The dollar gained versus the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for December delivery fell 93 cents to $80.26 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, edging off a one-year high.

COMEX gold for December delivery fell $2.20 to settle at $1,056.40 an ounce. Gold has surpassed records repeatedly this month due to the weak dollar and longer-term worries about inflation.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:15 pm : Participants made a concerted push against stocks Friday, leaving the major indices to end the week on a down note and log their first weekly loss since the start of the month. Weakness was widespread as a large batch of better-than-expected earnings results and an improved rate of existing home sales were shrugged off.

A pair of positive earnings surprises from Microsoft (MSFT 28.02, +1.43) and Amazon.com (AMZN 118.49, +25.04) helped the Nasdaq get a leg up on its counterparts in the first few minutes of action. Shares of MSFT made their way to a fresh 15-month high, while shares of AMZN hit new record highs, which helped drive the Nasdaq to a gain of more than 1%. Their respective strength also helped the tech sector (-0.3%) limit losses and retailers net a strong gain (+1.4%) as weakness in the broader market spread and knocked the Nasdaq from its perch.

Sellers took all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 into the red as they dismissed a raft of better-than-expected earnings from the likes of American Express (AXP 34.58, -1.86), Honeywell (HON 38.26, -0.27) Schlumberger (SLB 65.20, -3.40), and Broadcom (BRCM 28.50, -2.23). In turn, eight of the sectors settled with losses in excess of 1%.

Materials stocks made up the worst performing sector. They dropped 2.1% as a confluence of broader market weakness and a stronger dollar made commodities look less attractive. With the Dollar Index advancing 0.5%, the CRB Commodity Index fell 0.8%.

Oil prices were a considerable drag on the CRB. Oil prices settled 0.8% lower at $80.50 per barrel. That helped take the energy sector to a 2.0% loss.

Fed Chairman Bernanke spoke about financial system reform at a conference this morning, but he didn't offer any new insight or make any original statements, so the comments had no real affect on stocks.

The only item on the economic calendar was existing home sales data for September. Home sales climbed to an annualized rate of 5.57 million from 5.09 million the month before. The upturn was stronger than had been expected, given that the consensus forecast called for an annualized sales rate of 5.35 million units in September.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Materials (-2.1%), Energy (-2.0%), Utilities (-1.7%), Industrials (-1.7%), Financials (-1.6%), Telecom (-1.3%), Consumer Staples (-1.1%), Health Care (-1.1%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.7%), Tech (-0.3%)DJ30 -109.13 NASDAQ -10.82 NQ100 -0.5% R2K -2.0% SP400 -1.3% SP500 -13.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 609/2.45 bln/2040 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 736/1.28 bln/2284

3:35 pm : Strength in the dollar has devalued asset prices this session. Broad market declines are in excess of 1.3%, near session lows, as the dollar's strength builds. As such, the energy and materials sectors are getting hit the hardest. They are down 2.4% and 2.2%, respectively.

However, precious metals held up well this session. The recent, rather consistent, strong inverse correlation between the dollar and precious metals did not hold as they closed higher collectively.

Silver futures displayed relative strength this session. After hitting a session high at $17.97 per ounce early in the pit trade, December silver futures closed at $17.52 per ounce, up 1.1%. Gold futures were in positive territory early, but the dollar's strength pared these gains as the session wore on. December gold closed down fractionally at $1056.10 per ounce.

Energy commodities saw modest declines this session. December crude oil futures fought back to the unchanged level in the middle of the session, but quickly faded thereafter. They closed down 0.8% at $80.50 per barrel. November natural gas futures closed down 1.0% at $4.90 per contract after trending lower for the entire pit session.DJ30 -127.95 NASDAQ -11.59 SP500 -14.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 593/2.1 bln/2056 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 747/930 mln/2268

3:00 pm : The U.S. dollar has tightened up so that the Dollar Index sports a 0.4% gain. It is still down 7.2% year-to-date and only fractionally above 52-week lows, however.

Meanwhile, stocks continue to trade with widespread weakness near session lows. Of the major sectors in the S&P 500, tech is down the least as it trades with a 0.3% loss. Microsoft (MSFT 27.98, +1.39) has been a primary source of support to the sector; the company posted better-than-expected earnings this morning and has seen its stock climb to a new 15-month high.DJ30 -125.91 NASDAQ -9.99 SP500 -14.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 628/1.91 bln/1998 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 748/839 mln/2256

2:30 pm : Less than two hours remain in this week's final trading session. It will be interesting to see whether any late, sharp moves occur. Stocks steadily marched higher to finish with a strong gain in the previous session, but they had faltered late in Wednesday's trade. Wendesday's slide was uncharacteristic of many late moves in recent weeks in that it saw aggressive selling on heavy volume, rather than a rush of buying. Without a strong move to the upside, stocks will log a weekly loss of roughly 0.7%.DJ30 -111.60 NASDAQ -8.13 SP500 -13.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 642/1.78 bln/1978 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 763/780 mln/2236

2:00 pm : Still struggling to regain its footing, CIT Group (CIT 1.14, +0.02) will likely file for bankruptcy if it does not score an approbed restructuring plan. Such a move would result in a significant loss of stakeholder value. Shares of the regional lender are still trading with gains this session, but the stock has shed approximately three-quarters of its market value this year.

Shares of regional banks are down 1.3% this session. Regional banks were primary drivers behind the gains of the financial sector in the previous session; regional banks settled more than 6% higher in the previous session.DJ30 -115.10 NASDAQ -10.02 SP500 -14.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 638/1.64 bln/1966 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 728/711 mln/2253

1:30 pm : The S&P 500 has slipped below the 1080 mark so that stocks trade at fresh session lows. This session's decline has put stocks on track for a weekly loss of roughly 0.7%. That would follow two consecutive weeks of strong weekly gains. In turn, the S&P 500 is still up nearly 2% month-to-date.DJ30 -125.91 NASDAQ -11.81 SP500 -13.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 630/1.52 bln/1948 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 711/649 mln/2266

1:05 pm : Despite a large number a positive earnings reports and better-than-expected housing data the overall market is lower at midday after opening near the unchanged mark. European markets gave up gains to close mixed in conjunction with the pullback in U.S. stocks.

A large number of companies reported yesterday after the close and today before the open, with the vast majority topping analyst expectations, though reactions have been mixed... Some of the more notable names to beat include Amazon.com (AMZN 117.25, +23.80), American Express (AXP 35.87, -0.57), Microsoft (MSFT 28.26, +1.67), Honeywell (HON 38.42, -0.11) and Schlumberger (SLB 65.95, -2.65).

Although some of the reports boosted peer companies, the news has failed to lift the overall market.

Among sectors, technology (+0.3%) is outperforming thanks to Microsoft's results. Retailers (+1.9%) are showing strength as Amazon surges nearly 25%. Energy (-1.3%), industrials (-1.3%) and utilities (-1.2%) are underperforming.

The only piece of economic data was the existing housing sales report at 10:00ET. According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales surged 9.4% m/m (consensus +4.9%) to 5.57 mln. The jump in sales was mostly due to first-time homebuyers entering the market before the tax break ends in November.

Beyond the headline sales numbers, there was another good piece of news from the data release. Distressed properties, which accounted for almost 50% of sales throughout the spring and summer, have declined significantly to only 29%. The market got a short lived boost after the report, but stocks quickly gave up gains to establish fresh session lows.DJ30 -82.19 NASDAQ -3.60 SP500 -10.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 734/1.40 bln/1877 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 867/563 mln/2090

12:30 pm : The recovery attempt is short-lived as stocks stall. Losses remain broad-based, with the exception of gains in retailers and some tech companies.DJ30 -79.28 NASDAQ -2.07 SP500 -10.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 730/1.28 bln/1841 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 828/511 mln/2104

12:00 pm : The Nasdaq has made its way back to the unchanged mark, but the Dow and S&P 500 still trying to trim losses. Meanwhile, weakness remains even more pronounced among small- and mid-cap stocks, which has resulted in a 1.4% loss for the Russell 2000 and a 1.1% loss for the S&P 400.

Weakness among U.S. stocks led to selling in Europe and undercut the continents major bourses, which had been sporting strong gains in excess of 1%. However, Germany's DAX finished with a 0.4% loss and France's CAC fell 0.3%. Britain's FTSE managed to remain in positive ground as it settled with a 0.7% gain.DJ30 -75.42 NASDAQ -0.43 SP500 -9.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 682/1.18 bln/1844 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 797/496 mln/2121

11:30 am : Shares of retailers continue to trade with strength, though the broader market remains mired in weakness. In fact, eight of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 are down by 1% or more, but shares of retailers, as a group, are up 1.4%.

Amazon.com (AMZN 115.53, +22.08) continues to be the primary leader for retailers, thanks to a strong quarterly earnings announcement. Enthusiasm over the report has shares of AMZN making their best single-session percentage advance in more than two years. The stock even made its way to a record, split-adjusted high in recent action.

Retailers are outperforming the broader market for the second straight session. In turn, the group is up more than 3% during the course of the past two sessions. The broader market is flat for that time.DJ30 -99.46 NASDAQ -5.88 SP500 -11.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 628/1.06 bln/1850 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 738/440 mln/2153

11:00 am : Stocks have stumbled so that the Dow and S&P 500 trade with sizable losses and the Nasdaq has completely surrendered its morning gain, which had exceeded 1% at its session high.

Weakness has become widespread, but losses are most pronounced among industrial stocks (-1.4%), energy stocks (-1.4%), and materials stocks (-1.2%).

The industrial sector is down amid declines in shares of railroad stocks following the latest quarterly report from Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI 79.09, -5.53), which actually topped earnings expectations.

Energy stocks have been weighed down by weakness among oil and gas equipment stocks (-2.9%) and oil and gas exploration stocks (-1.6%) following the latest earnings from Schlumberger (SLB 66.16, -2.44), which actually posted a positive earnings surprise of its own, though its top line was down sharply from the previous year.

Meanwhile, materials stocks have been hampered by a stronger dollar, which is up 0.3% against a basket of major foreign currencies. DJ30 -63.03 NASDAQ -1.00 SP500 -7.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 716/880 mln/1714 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 807/371 mln/2033

10:30 am : After hitting fresh morning lows, the stock market is currently trading just above those lows, while the US Dollar Index remains just under its morning high.

After trading near the unchanged line overnight, December crude fell sharply minutes after the open of pit trading to fresh morning lows of $80.12 per barrel. Currently, crude is 0.9% lower at $80.41 per barrel.

November natural gas was in positive territory overnight and after hitting session highs of $5.056 per MMBtu this morning, natural gas fell sharply into negative territory to fresh lows of $4.869. In current activity, natural gas is 1.1% lower at $4.894 per MMBtu.

The US Dollar Index has continued to trend higher this morning, however precious metals still hit session highs in recent trade. December gold hit highs of $1068.80 per ounce recently and is currently $1.70 higher at $1060.30 per ounce. December silver recently hit highs of $17.97 per ounce and is currently trading 1.1% higher at $17.74 per ounce.DJ30 -36.43 NASDAQ +11.82 SP500 -3.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 982/646.4 mln/1378 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1091/278.1 mln/1702

10:00 am : Stocks have spiked in the moments following the release of September existing home sales data, which showed an annualized sales rate of 5.57 million. That's better than the rate of 5.35 million that was widely expected.

However, gains by the broader market remain rather limited, given the mixed interest among the major sectors in the S&P 500. Tech (+1.0%) and retailers (+2.4%) continue to provide support, though.

Early Movers: Trading up -- ALGN +21.2%, AMZN +19%, CPWR +15.1%, EPAY +14.6%, BUCY +14.5%, COF +10.8%, SCSS +10.7%, POWI +10.4%, NFLX +10.3%, RNOW +10.2%, SNMX +10.1%, HWAY +9.9%; Trading down -- RMTR -16.1%, ELN -16%, SPWRA -10.7%, RVBD -10.4%, VHC -9.4%, SPWRB -9.3%, WRES -9.2%, SNV -8.7%, WOOF -8.4%, LCAV -8.3%, IBKR -7.4%, WFR -7.1%, MVIS -7.1%DJ30 -7.41 NASDAQ +22.59 SP500 +2.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1324/429 mln/925 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1577/181 mln/1126

09:40 am : The Nasdaq has jumped out to a strong gain, such that it is currently outperforming its counterparts. The Nasdaq's relative strength comes on the back of better-than-expected earnings from Microsoft (MSFT 28.96, +2.37) and Amazon.com (AMZN 111.78, +18.33), both of which are up sharply in early action.

Leadership from the pair has helped the tech sector and retailers, respectively, provide support to the broader market. Tech is up 1.1% as the best performing sector in the S&P 500. Retailers, as a group, are up 1.7%. The other sectors in the S&P 500 are currently mixed.DJ30 -5.74 NASDAQ +18.22 SP500 +1.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1212/259 mln/935 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1283/107 mln/1328

09:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.00. Stock futures suggest that the major equity averages will extend the previous session's strong gains as participants get their hands on another large batch of quarterly earnings results, which have generally proven to be far better than what had been widely expected. In particular, Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon.com (AMZN), and Capital One (COF) each beat its respective consensus estimate by a margin of $0.08 to $0.80 per share. Overseas markets have lent support to this morning's positive tone; all three major European bourses are up by more than 1% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite both gained nearly 2%. As is typical, though, participants are keeping an eye on the U.S. dollar, which is currently up 0.2% against a basket of major foreign currencies. Recent comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke haven't contained anything new, so they haven't had much of an impact on premarket action. However, there is some existing home sales data for September due shortly (10:00 AM ET).

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.30. Stock futures have kicked higher in the wake of a better-than-expected earnings report from Microsoft (MSFT), which brought in $0.40 per share for the latest quarter. Shares of MSFT up nearly 10% to $29.20 per share ahead of the opening bell. Participants are also keying in on a speech from Fed Chairman Bernanke, who said earlier that financial conditions have improved considerably, but that the Fed will conduct more comprehensive reviews of banks, though large banks, for the most part, have increased liquidity.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.50. European markets are making solid gains following news from AFP that private sector business activity in the 16-nation eurozone grew in October at its fastest rate since December 2007 as the purchasing managers' index (PMI) climbed to 53.0 from 51.1 points in September. Employment, however, fell for the 16th successive month. In Germany, the DAX is up 1.1%. Fresenius Medical Care, Merck, and Volkswagen are the only three listings in the 30-component index to trade with losses. Allianz (AZ) and Deutsche Bank (DB) are among the primary leaders. France's CAC is up 1.1% in broad-based buying. Financial outfits BNP Paribas and Societe Generale are providing the most support to the move, though. Britain's FTSE has made its way to a 1.5% gain. HSBC (HBC) is a primary leader, but natural resource outfits Anglo American, Rio Tinto (RTP), and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) are also providing support. According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.K. economy saw a record sixth straight quarter of contraction between July and September. According to the report, the Office for National Statistics said in its preliminary report that third quarter output fell 0.4% quarter-over-quarter. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.5% in Friday's trade, while Japan's Nikkei tacked on 0.2%. Japan Airlines slumbed as it surrendered its outsized gains from the previous session. There were reports that some creditors have asked the struggling carrier to reduce its capital. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng advanced 1.7% to a 14-month closing high. Financial shares rebounded with ICBC rising to its highest close since November 2007. China Construction Bank gained ahead of its third quarter earnings report, which was released after the closing bell. Its results were better-than-expected. According to reports, Hong Kong's central bank injected money three times on Friday to contain an appreciating Hong Kong dollar. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite advanced 1.8%. It was led by energy and metal stocks.

08:02 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.30. Another large batch of better-than-expected earnings results is out this morning, but broader market stock futures point to only a flat-to-mildly higher start. There has been some individual strength, though. In premarket trade, shares of Amazon.com (AMZN) are up more than 15% to $108.30 per share following news of its positive earnings surprise. Capital One (COF) shares are up nearly 8% to $41.39 per share after the company topped its consensus earnings estimate with ease. Shares of Whirlpool (WHR) are up nearly 3% to $75.50 per share after posting its latest results and raising its outlook. Honeywell (HON) is up nearly 2% to $39.25 per share. The economic calendar is rather light today; only existing home sales data for September is scheduled for later this morning (10:00 AM ET).

06:26 am : S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.80.

06:26 am : Nikkei...10282.99...+15.80...+0.20%. Hang Seng...22589.73...+379.20...+1.70%.

06:26 am : FTSE...5271.70...+64.30...+1.20%. DAX...5820.96...+58.20...+1.00%.

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