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 Post subject: October 16th Friday 2009 Emini ES ($ES_F) points +5.50
PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2009 11:57 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=66&t=340

Quote:
Only five trades today...2 winners and 3 losers but the trading day was a profit and prior to the trading day I knew it was going to be a low profit trading day due to a lot of personal work to do in my basement office and I wanted to try a few new trade strategies for the 4pm est market close. Don't have much to say considering I missed most of the trading day other than to say I'll be reviewing this weekend the 2009 intraday charts for CME EuroFX 6E futures for consideration as my new trading instrument if I decide to switch from the Emini ES futures or trade both (most likely the latter).


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their efforts in trade signals while ignoring the impact on their trading results via market psychology, trader psychology (trading habits/routine and personal lifestyle). If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +5.50 Emini ES ($ES_F) points

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Dow Can't Hold 10,000
Investors disappointed by the most recent quarterly financial reports send stocks lower Friday, but the week ends up a winner.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: October 16, 2009: 7:05 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks slumped Friday, at the end of an upbeat week on Wall Street, as a sour response to General Electric and Bank of America's quarterly results gave investors a reason to retreat.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 67 points, or 0.7%. After closing above 10,000 for two straight sessions, the Dow ended just below that psychological benchmark.

The S&P 500 (SPX) index shed 9 points, or 0.8%, and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) dropped 16 points, or 0.8%.

Stocks slipped back after ending Thursday's session at a more than one-year high, with corporate results the big factor.

"Some companies aren't seeing that improvement in revenue everyone's looking for, and in the financial sector, credit losses remain a significant problem," said Robert McGee, portfolio manager at CS McKee.

The stock market has essentially been on a tear since bottoming in March, with repeated calls for a big 10% to 15% selloff going unmet. Since hitting a more than 12-year low on March 9, the S&P 500 has gained 60.8% as of Friday's close.

While the major indexes ended Friday with weekly gains, the pace of the advance in general has slowed of late. Month-to-date, the S&P 500 has gained just 2.9% as of Friday's close.

"The market has had a very strong run off the March lows," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial Group. "But now investors are looking to see if we can get a push higher after the third-quarter results are in, similar to what we saw after first and second-quarter earnings."

The results this week have been mixed, with earnings largely beating estimates and revenue mostly in line. Goldman Sachs, Intel and Google were among the companies to impress, while Citigroup, GE and Bank of America were among the companies that disappointed.

Next week brings a slew of big-name corporate results, including Apple, Coca-Cola, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, American Express and Microsoft.

"Liquidity levels are helping to drive the market higher" said Sheldon. "But I think we'll need to see some better economic news, in terms of employment, along with greater visibility from companies heading into 2010 to help propel stocks even higher."

Bank of America: Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) reported a $2.2 billion third-quarter loss as consumer credit problems overshadowed strength in its wealth management business.

The Dow component reported a loss of 26 cents per share versus a profit of 15 cents per share a year ago. Analysts surveyed by Briefing.com expected BofA to report a loss of 21 cents per share.

Consumer credit losses are cutting into its attempts to return to profitability and pay back $45 billion to the government, BofA said. The company has received that money in the aftermath of its purchases of Merrill Lynch and Countrywide in the thick of the financial crisis.

However, like JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) earlier this week, BofA said that while loan losses and money set aside for loan losses continue to grow, the pace of the growth is slowing.

Separately, late Thursday, the company said outgoing CEO Ken Lewis will not take a salary for 2009, at the request of Treasury's pay czar, Kenneth Feinberg. Lewis has agreed to return the roughly $1 million he has already earned in his last year at the company. The CEO is still on track to receive $69 million in pension benefits, other stock awards and deferred compensation.

BofA shares fell 4.6% Friday.

A variety of bank stocks fell Friday, sending the KBW Bank (BKX) index down by 3.2%.

Financial results: General Electric (GE, Fortune 500) reported weaker quarterly earnings that topped estimates on lower revenue that missed estimates.

The conglomerate and Dow component was hurt by GE Capital, its troubled finance arm, but benefited from cost-cutting and strength in select units. The company said it sees signs of stabilization along with the economy. GE shares fell almost 5%.

Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly sales and earnings that topped estimates in a report released late Thursday. In a statement, Google CEO Eric Schmidt said "we believe the worst of the recession is behind us, and we now feel comfortable investing heavily in our future."

Google shares rose 3.8% Friday.

Also after the close Thursday, Dow component IBM (IBM, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly earnings that topped estimates and lower revenue that beat forecasts. Looking forward, the company said it expects full-year 2009 earnings of at least $9.85 per share versus its previous forecast of $9.70 per share.

But investors focused on the lower revenue Friday and shares fell 5%.

World markets: Global markets were mixed. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 fell 0.6%, France's CAC 40 slid 1.5% and Germany's DAX lost 1.5%. Asian markets ended mixed, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng lower and the Japanese Nikkei lower.

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.41% from 3.46% late Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Currency and commodities: The dollar gained versus the euro and the yen, turning positive after its recent across-the-board weakness versus a basket of currencies.

U.S. light crude oil for November delivery rose 95 cents to $78.53 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after ending the previous session at the highest level in a year.

COMEX gold for December delivery rose 90 cents to $1,051.50 an ounce. Gold hit record highs repeatedly over the last week in response to a weak U.S. dollar and ongoing concerns about inflationary pressures.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners nearly two to one on volume of 1.38 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers by more than two to one on volume of 2.22 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:15 pm : For the second straight session strength in the energy sector helped the broader market make an upward move in the waning minutes of trade, but this time it wasn't enough to fully overcome the weakness that stemmed from a handful of disappointing earnings reports.

Weakness enveloped stocks in the early going as market participants reacted negatively to the latest batch of earnings releases. Dow component IBM (IBM 121.64, -6.34) was out last evening with better-than-expected earnings and even raised its earnings forecast for 2009. However, the company's top line was down from the previous year, indicating that demand hasn't fully rebounded.

Google (GOOG 549.85, +19.94) also reported after the close of trading Thursday. The company brought in $5.89 per share, which bested the consensus estimate of $5.42 per share. Google distinguished its report from many others this earnings season by posting an increase to its revenue.

Economic bellwether and industrial conglomerate General Electric (GE 16.08, -0.71) brought in better-than-expected earnings of its own, though it saw continued pressure in its capital finance business and was hit with a 20% year-over-year drop in revenue.

Bank of America (BAC 17.26, -0.84) kept the focus of participants on the negative side of things by unveiling a deeper-than-expected loss of $0.26 per share for the third quarter. Disappointment from Bank of America's report extended the financial sector's losses from the prior session, leaving it to finish this session with a 2.6% loss and down 0.2% for the week.

Weakness in the financial sector bled into the broader market and hampered it for the entire session.

Stocks did manage to pare some of their losses, though. The move came late in the session as energy stocks staged a rally on the heels of rising oil prices. Oil prices hit a new 2009 high of $78.67 per barrel and settled just off those highs at $78.51 per barrel, up 1.2%. However, energy stocks couldn't hold steady in positive ground and slipped to a fractional loss, instead. The broader market also lost its momentum in the final minutes of trade.

Economic data wasn't much of a help to stocks. The University of Michigan Preliminary Sentiment Consumer Survey came in at 69.4, which is below the 73.3 that was widely expected.

Meanwhile, industrial production was up 0.7% in September. That beat the 0.2% increase that was expected.

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Staples (+0.4%), Utilities (+0.3%)
Declining Sectors: Financials (-2.6%), Materials (-1.4%), Tech (-1.0%), Telecom (-0.9%), Industrials (-0.9%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.6%), Health Care (-0.4%), Energy (-0.1%)DJ30 -67.03 NASDAQ -16.49 NQ100 -0.8% R2K -1.2% SP400 -1.0% SP500 -8.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 837/2.21 bln/1828 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1041/1.39 bln/1962

3:35 pm : Stocks are trading near afternoon highs. Still, utilities and consumer staples are the only sectors trading in positive territory. They are up 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively. The materials sector in the primary laggard, currently down 1.3%.

Precious metals had a quiet pit session and closed up 0.3% despite strength in the dollar. After trading between $1043.70 and $1057.90 per ounce, December gold futures closed up fractionally at $1051.50 per ounce. After trading between $17.21 and $17.58 per ounce, December silver futures closed up fractionally at $17.42 per ounce.

November natural gas futures finished a volatile week up 6.7% to close at $4.78 per contract. They finished nearly unchanged for the week after falling in excess of 6% on Tuesday. November crude oil futures rose to their best levels of the session, and year, at the end of the session. They closed at $78.51 per barrel, up 1.2%. DJ30 -57.58 NASDAQ -13.50 SP500 -7.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 937/1.82 bln/1738 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1073/980 mln/1917

3:00 pm : One hour remains in this session and stocks are currently on track to log a weekly gain of 1.5%. Month-to-date, stocks are up nearly 3.0%.

Energy stocks have been the primary drivers behind that move. The energy sector is looking at a week-to-date gain of nearly 5%, though it is currently trading with a 0.3% loss.

Meanwhile, telecom stocks are looking to log the worst weekly gain of any major sector. Telecom is on track to finish flat for the week.DJ30 -68.92 NASDAQ -15.36 SP500 -8.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 896/1.67 bln/1763 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1001/902 mln/1982

2:30 pm : Prior to the close of pit trade oil prices spiked to fresh highs for 2009. Just moments before trading settled, oil prices were quoted 1.2% higher at $78.50 per barrel.

The advance by oil prices hasn't pulled energy stocks out of the red, though. The energy sector is still down 0.2%. However, the subset of oil and gas equipment stocks has mustered a 0.1% gain.DJ30 -61.14 NASDAQ -12.46 SP500 -7.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 890/1.55 bln/1745 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1015/844 mln/1966

2:00 pm : The Dollar Index has pulled back to trade with a modest 0.1% gain. At its session high, it was up 0.5%, which is a strong move for currencies.

The greenback's pullback has helped lift the CRB Commodity Index to a 0.2% gain. It has also helped ease pressure against stocks, though the broader market continues to trade with a marked loss.DJ30 -70.96 NASDAQ -12.92 SP500 -8.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 887/1.45 bln/1748 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 973/792 mln/2001

1:30 pm : Stocks are paring their losses so that they trade at afternoon highs. The improved position has been helped along by a stronger energy sector, which is now trading with a loss of just 0.2%. It had been down 1.0% earlier this session.

Energy stocks also made a strong rebound in the previous session and helped the broader market overcome mild losses to extend its 2009 highs. Like the previous session, energy's move comes amid rising oil prices. Oil prices had been having a rather quiet session, but they are now up 0.4% to $77.85 per barrel. That's still short of the highs that were reached in the previous session, when oil prices flirted with $78 per barrel.DJ30 -58.79 NASDAQ -12.92 SP500 -7.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 840/1.32 bln/1780 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 983/738 mln/1978

1:10 pm : Stocks are trading with losses of about 1% at midday as investors respond negatively to earnings reports from three Dow components. During the second quarter's earnings season the market largely ignored revenue misses, but this session's reaction to results indicate a higher bar has been set.

Losses are broad-based, with eight of the ten sectors trading lower. Financials (-2.6%), industrials (-1.6%) and materials (-1.4%) are posting the biggest losses. Defensive areas are outperforming, with consumer staples (+0.2%) and utilities (+0.2%) in positive territory.

In corporate earnings, IBM (IBM 121.83, -6.15) reported EPS and revenue slightly above expectations, but shares are down 4.8% as services orders were relatively weak and the company has a history of significantly beating estimates... Bank of America (BAC 17.35, -0.75) broke the trend of upside earnings surprises from the major banks, posting Q3 EPS of -$0.26 per share versus expectations of -$0.20.

Meanwhile, General Electric (GE 16.09, -0.71) reported earnings of $0.22 per share, slightly ahead of the $0.20 consensus. But revenue came well short of expectations ($37.8 billion versus $39.5 billion), dropping 20% year-over-year. Aviation and energy were drivers behind the revenue miss. As a result, shares are down 4.2%.

There were some positive surprises, however. Google (GOOG 551.83, +21.92) bested its consensus EPS ($5.89 versus $5.42 consensus), and seemed more upbeat about the economic outlook.

In economic news, stocks came under additional pressure at 10:00ET as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey came in at 69.4, worse than the expected reading of 73.3.

Industrial production rose 0.7% in September, beating the 0.2% consensus. The market had a limited reaction to the release.DJ30 -94.62 NASDAQ -24.20 SP500 -11.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 665/1.22 bln/1943 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 791/687 mln/2160

12:30 pm : The stock market continues to trade with a loss of more than 1%.

Some of the sectors that have seen the strongest gains in recent sessions are under pressure, including financials (-2.5%) and materials (-1.3%).DJ30 -99.23 NASDAQ -23.41 SP500 -11.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 637/1.96/1954 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 738/627 mln/2211

12:00 pm : Utilities stocks have made their way into positive territory so that they now sport a 0.3% gain. The sector's relative strength stems from gains in electric utilities (+0.4%) like Exelon (EXC 50.33, +0.25), Southern (SO 32.33, +0.22), and American Electric (AEP 31.11, +0.15).

Consumer staples stocks make up the only other sector to trade in positive territory. Consumer staples are up 0.2%.

Conversely, financials continue to flounder. The sector has lost 2.5% this session. That, coupled with a 0.7% loss in the previous session, has the sector trading flat for the week. In contrast, the S&P 500 is up more than 1% week-to-date.DJ30 -111.62 NASDAQ -28.13 SP500 -12.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 575/984 mln/1984 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 692/583 mln/2233

11:30 am : Shares of Citigroup (C 4.65, -0.10), Bank of America (BAC 17.40, -0.70), and General Electric (GE 15.97, -0.82) are atop the list of most actively traded shares by volume this session. Citigroup reported its latest quarterly results ahead of the previous session, but Bank of America and General Electric both reported results this morning. The pair of reports weren't as solid has many investors had hoped, so participants have responded by sending those shares down considerably.

Selling pressure stemming from Bank of America and General Electric's report has weighed on the broader market for the entire session, putting stocks on track for their worst single-session percentage loss since October 1.DJ30 -96.20 NASDAQ -26.93 SP500 -11.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 572/887 mln/1959 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 705/537 mln/2193

11:00 am : The major indices remain mired in weakness. Each is down by more than 1% and trading at session lows.

Consumer staples stocks are holding up against this session's broad-based decline, however. Strength in shares of industry heavyweight Colgate-Palmolive (CL 79.52, +0.75) have the consumer staples sector up 0.1%. Though that isn't much, it is the only gain being made by any of the 10 major sectors.

Amid widespread weakness this session, Treasuries have also found favor. As such, the benchmark 10-year Note is up a healthy 10 ticks.DJ30 -119.56 NASDAQ -29.35 SP500 -14.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 520/727 mln/1975 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 572/463 mln/2296

10:30 am : After pushing into positive territory right after the open, November crude is back near the flat line after recently hitting new lows of $76.82 per barrel. Currently, crude is 0.1% lower at $77.46 per barrel.

November natural gas traded near the unchanged line overnight, but when pit trading began, natural spiked to morning highs of $4.729 per MMBtu. Currently, natural gas is trading 5.5% higher at $4.728 per MMbtu.

The US Dollar Index remains higher, but precious metals are in positive territory, although just modestly. December gold is trading $0.90 higher at $1051.60 per ounce, while December silver is 0.3% higher at $17.47 per ounce.DJ30 -94.84 NASDAQ -26.49 SP500 -12.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 543/575.1 mln/1904 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 602/395.2 mln/2212

10:00 am : Stocks remain under pressure, such that the three major indices have actually fallen to a fresh morning lows. The extension of the downturn comes in the wake of the preliminary October reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey, which came in at 69.4. It was expected to come in at 73.3.

Though this morning's slide has been broad based, the downturn has been led by financial stocks. Financials are now down 2.5%, as a group.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Financials (-2.5%), Industrials (-1.8%), Materials (-1.5%), Consumer Discretionary (-1.4%), Tech (-1.3%), Energy (-0.9%), Utilities (-0.8%), Telecom (-0.8%), Health Care (-0.3%), Consumer Staples (-0.1%)DJ30 -109.28 NASDAQ -24.49 SP500 -12.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 615/367 mln/1741 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 536/313 mln/2221

09:45 am : Shares of financial companies are grappling with considerable pressure for the second straight session. The sector is currently off 1.9% after logging a loss of 0.7% in Thursday's trade.

The downturn by financials comes in the wake of a disappointing report from Bank of America (BAC 17.32, -0.78), which posted a deeper-than-expected loss for the third quarter. That has cast a particularly heavy weight on diversified banks (-3.4%), regional banks (-2.2%), and diversified financial services (-2.2%).DJ30 -81.16 NASDAQ -14.07 SP500 -8.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 664/205 mln/1609 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 570/235 mln/2106

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.30. Stocks futures fell under moderate pressure this morning with the release of earnings reports from General Electric (GE) and Bank of America (BAC). Though GE topped earnings expectations, analysts were generally dissatisfied with the overall quality of its report. Such was also the case with IBM (IBM), which reported last evening. As for Bank of America (BAC), it posted a deeper-than-expected third quarter loss, which is especially glaring in the wake of strong results from the likes of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS). However, premarket participants have showed support for Google (GOOG). The Internet search giant posted lat evening an impressive earnings beat and a double-digit increase in paid clicks. A bit of economic data has also just hit news wires. During September, capacity utilization climbed to 70.5% from 69.9%. It also bested the 69.8% that was widely expected. As for industrial production, it increased 0.7%, which is better than the 0.2% that was expected. Production during August was revised higher to show a 1.2% increase.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -10.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.50. Following four straight down sessions, the Dollar Index is up a solid 0.5% this morning. That is weighing on stocks and commodities. As for particular commodity prices, gold is down 0.6% to $1043.70 per ounce, and oil, which is down fractionally to $77.50 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. Oil prices climbed to fresh 2009 highs just below the $78 per barrel level during the previous session.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -11.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.30. Europe's major stock averages are trading with moderate weakness. As such, Germany's DAX is down 0.0.8%. Its decliners outnumber its advancing issues by more than 2-to-1. Deutsche Bank (DB) and Siemens (SI) are leading the list of laggards. In France, the CAC is off by 0.9%. Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) is a primary laggard. Meanwhile, Britain's FTSE is off by 0.5%. HSBC (HBC) is weighing heavily on the broader market measure, but Lloyds Banking Group (LYG) is providing support after it was upgraded by analysts at Deutsche Bank. In economic news, Dow Jones reported that the eurozone's trade balance swung to a larger-than-expected deficit in August. Nonseasonally adjusted figures showed the 16 countries that share the euro posted a combined trade deficit of EUR 4.0 billion in August. The week finished in mixed fashion for Asian markets. Japan's Nikkei settled 0.2% higher as Fast Retailing showed leadership. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng settled 0.3% lower, though. HSBC showed strength, but fellow financial outfits Industrial & Commercial Bank, Bank of China, and China Construction Bank lagged. According to Dow Jones, China's banking regulator urged state-run lenders to maintain a reasonable pace of lending and manage risks by setting aside more provisions to cover potential bad loans. The Shanghai Composite settled 0.1% lower.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.00. Stocks overcame moderate losses to extend their 2009 highs during the previous session, but stock futures are back in the red this morning following earnings reports from several widely held companies. The list starts with Google (GOOG), which reported last evening earnings of $5.89 per share. That bested the consensus EPS estimate by $0.47. Aggregate paid clicks increased approximately 14% year-over-year and approximately 4% sequentially. Shares of GOOG are up more than 3% to $547.20 per share ahead of the opening bell. IBM (IBM) also reported last night. Big Blue brought in $2.40 per share, which was $0.02 better than widely expected. IBM went on to raise its 2009 outlook, which now calls for $9.85 per share, up from $9.70 per share. The consensus for 2009 earnings currently stands at $9.78 per share. Shares of IBM are down more than 5% to $122.76 per share in premarket trade. Economic bellwether and industrial conglomerate General Electric (GE) reported third quarter earnings of $0.22 per share, including certain charges. Analysts, on average, had expected $0.20 per share. The company reported that the environment for GE Capital remains tough, but there are signs of stabilization. Shares of GE are off by nearly 2.5% to $16.38 per share ahead of the opening bell. Bank of America (BAC) reported this morning that it generated a loss of $0.26 per share last quarter, but that was even worse than the loss of $0.21 per share that was widely anticipated. Provision for credit losses was $11.7 billion, down $1.7 billion sequentially, but up $5.3 billion year-over-year. Tier 1 capital ratio came in at 12.5%, up from 11.9% last quarter. Shares of BAC are down 3.5% to $17.47 per share in premarket trade. There are a few items of note on the economic calendar. Industrial production and capacity utilization data for September are due at 9:15 AM ET, followed by the preliminary October Consumer Confidence Survey from University of Michigan at 10:00 AM ET.

06:19 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.00.

06:19 am : Nikkei...10257.56...+18.90...+0.20%. Hang Seng...21929.90...-69.20...-0.30%.

06:19 am : FTSE...5249.85...+26.90...+0.50%. DAX...5869.26...+38.40...+0.70%.

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