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 Post subject: October 15th Thursday 2009 Emini ES ($ES_F) points +20.50
PostPosted: Thu Oct 15, 2009 4:39 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=66&t=339

Quote:
Took it easy today especially after I saw the low volatility trading range. However, I did have one difficult trading duration between 1356pm - 1435pm est. Also, tomorrow I will be doing very little trading because I have to do some installation work in my basement office (new ceiling panels and lighting). Good opportunity for me to try some new stuff in trading around the 4pm est close.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their efforts in trade signals while ignoring the impact on their trading results via market psychology, trader psychology (trading habits/routine and personal lifestyle). If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +20.50 Emini ES ($ES_F) points

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Dow 10,000: Day Two
Stocks stage late-session advance due to run up in energy shares, despite bank stock selloff after Goldman Sachs and Citigroup results. After-hours, Google beats.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: October 15, 2009: 4:24 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Dow carved out another one-year high Thursday, as rising oil prices and a late-session rally in commodity stocks overshadowed any bank sector weakness after Citigroup and Goldman Sachs' profit reports.

After the close, Google reported a third-quarter profit that topped estimates, sending shares 2% higher.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 47 points, or 0.5% according to early tallies, ending above 10,000 for the second session in a row. The Dow is currently at its highest point since Oct. 3, 2008, when it closed at 10,325.38.

The S&P 500 (SPX) index edged up 4 points, or 0.4%, and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) was barely higher.

Weakness in financial shares dragged on stocks through the early afternoon. But a 3% spike in oil prices caused energy stocks to rise late in the session, with Dow stocks Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and ExxonMobil (XOM, Fortune 500) among the big gainers.

Strong quarterly results from JPMorgan Chase and Intel helped fuel a big advance on Wall Street Wednesday, pushing the Dow to close above 10,000 for the first time in over a year. But stronger-than-expected results from Citi and Goldman had less impact Thursday.

The 10,000 number is more psychological than anything else, as it's a round number and also puts the Dow back to where it stood just after the collapse of Lehman Brothers last year. But analysts say that the just-getting-started third-quarter reporting period is what's really going to determine whether stocks keep moving higher.

The early results have been good -- with roughly 75% of companies beating earnings estimates. Also, revenues have shown some stabilization. Should that trend continue, it would help assuage fears that cost-cutting is the only thing helping earnings stabilize and that little topline growth exists.

"The first real week or so is not necessarily indicative of what the rest of the earnings are going to look like," said Burt White, chief investment officer at LPL Financial. "That said, the trend of earnings beating expectations is going to continue. Conditions are improving faster than people have been expecting."

Results: Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) reported a $3.2 billion quarterly profit, thanks to strength in its trading business, which has recovered this year. The financial behemoth reported quarterly revenue and earnings that rose from a year ago and topped estimates.

The company's chief executive said the strong quarter was due to signs of stabilization and growth across a variety of sectors.

Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) reported a quarterly loss Thursday due to the ongoing impact of the credit crisis. But the loss was narrower than analysts had been expecting.

On Wednesday, JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) said it earned $3.6 billion in the quarter, also due to strength in its investment business.

Economy: The morning brought a mix of economic news, with readings on consumer inflation, jobs and manufacturing all in the mix.

The Consumer Price index (CPI) rose 0.2% in September, after rising 0.4% in August. The rise was in line with a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com.

The so-called core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy, rose 0.2% after rising 0.1% in August. Economists thought it would rise 0.1%.

Around 514,000 people filed new claims for unemployment last week, down from a revised 524,000 in the previous week. Economists expected 520,000 new claims.

Continuing claims, a measure of those who have been receiving benefits for a week or more, fell to 5.992 million from 6.067 million in the previous week, versus forecasts for a smaller drop to 6 million.

Two regional manufacturing reports were also released. The Philadelphia Fed index dipped to 11.5 in October from 14.1 in the previous month, versus forecasts for a smaller slide to 12.

The Empire State Manufacturing Index, which measures activity in the New York region, rose to 34.57 in October from 18.88 in September. Economists thought it would fall to 17.25

World markets: Global markets were mixed. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 fell 0.4%, France's CAC 40 fell 0.1% and Germany's DAX lost 0.5%. Asian markets ended higher, with Japan's Nikkei rising 1.8%.

Bonds: Treasury prices inched higher, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.41% from 3.42% late Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Currency and commodities: The dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the yen, turning mixed after its recent across-the-board weakness versus a basket of currencies.

U.S. light crude oil for November delivery rose $2.41 to $77.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, following the morning's weekly inventories report from the government. Oil prices ended the previous session at the highest level in a year.

COMEX gold for December delivery fell $14.90 to $1,049.00 an ounce. Gold has been hitting record highs almost daily in response to a weak U.S. dollar and ongoing concerns about inflationary pressures.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : The major stock indices extended their 2009 highs late this session by overcoming losses that stemmed from a sell-the-news reaction to quarterly reports from Goldman Sachs and Citigroup.

The broader market spent most of the session with modest losses, which came amid considerable weakness in the financial sector. Financials were down as much as 1.7% following better-than-expected earnings from Goldman Sachs (GS 188.63, -3.65) and Citigroup (C 4.75, -0.25), both of which benefited in the previous session from an upbeat report from JPMorgan Chase (JPM 47.16, +0.00). However, the gains during the previous session effectively priced in this morning's positive surprise, prompting participants to sell the shares and take profits as the news hit.

Weakness in the financial sector weighed on the broader market for the entire session, but a late lift helped the sector pare its losses so that it finished with a loss of 0.7%.

The late lift was led by the energy sector, which settled with a 2.0% gain. That is more than twice the gain of the next best performing sector (utilities, +0.9%). Energy's advance came as refiners (+8.0%) surged and oil and gas equipment stocks (+3.4%) and oil and gas driller stocks (+3.2%) spiked with a sharp rise by oil prices. News that weekly oil inventories increased by a smaller-than-expected 334,000 barrels helped send oil futures prices to new 2009 highs of $77.97 per barrel. Oil prices settled at $77.58 per barrel with a 3.2% gain.

Energy's strength helped the broader market finish at session highs, which extended the gains made in the previous session. The broader market is now up more than 21% year-to-date. Despite that accomplishment, the S&P 500 is just now at levels first seen in 1998.

Market participants were generally unfazed by the latest batch of economic data, which featured a 0.2% increase in consumer prices and core consumer prices for September. The consensus called for a 0.2% increase in CPI and a 0.1% increase in core CPI. Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10 totaled 514,000, which was a bit below the consensus forecast of 520,000 initial claims and down 10,000 from the previous week. Continuing claims slipped below 6.0 million for the first time since March by coming in at 5.99 million. The consensus called for an even 6.00 million continuing claims.

The Empire State Manufacturing Index for October came in at 34.57, which topped the 17.25 that was widely expected, while the Philadelphia Fed Index for October came in at 11.5, which is fractionally below the 12.0 reading that was expected. Still, the Philly Fed Index has showed three straight positive readings, which hasn't happened for roughly two years.

Advancing Sectors: Energy (+2.0%), Utilities (+0.9%), Consumer Staples (+0.8%), Telecom (+0.7%), Health Care (+0.6%), Materials (+0.4%), Industrials (+0.3%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Financials (-0.7%)
Unchanged: Tech DJ30 +47.08 NASDAQ +1.06 NQ100 -0.1% R2K -0.1% SP400 +0.3% SP500 +4.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1162/2.18 bln/1508 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1509/1.36 bln/1502

3:30 pm : The market has retreated from session and year-to-date highs. Energy is leading the broader market this session; it is currently up 1.7%.

Crude oil futures saw a considerable spike this session following bullish inventory data. Crude oil inventories saw a less-than-expected build. In addition, gasoline inventories saw a draw. A build was expected. Crude oil futures broke through the $76 resistance level in the morning and proceeded to hit highs not seen since almost exactly one year ago. November crude oil futures rose 3.2% to close at $77.58 per barrel. Crude oil futures are now up almost 130% since lows hit in February.

Natural gas saw a negative reaction from bearish inventory data this morning. The November contracts were able to pare post-inventory losses, however, and closed 1.4% higher at $4.49 per contract.

Precious metals sold off this session. Both retested session lows as the dollar pared its losses late in the session. December gold futures fell 1.3% to close at $1050.60 per ounce and the same month expiring silver contract fell 2.7% to close at $17.42 per ounce.DJ30 +5.44 NASDAQ -3.85 SP500 +0.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1105/1.70 bln/1556 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1360/923 mln/1642

3:00 pm : The stock market has pushed its way into positive territory so that it now sports a modest gain. Stocks had been trading with relative weakness since the opening bell.

Energy stocks continue to provide the most support to the broader market. The sector is up 1.8% to a session high.

Utilities make up the next best performing sector. As a group, they are up 0.8%. PG&E (PCG 42.16, +0.37) is a leader in the group after being upgraded by analysts at UBS.DJ30 +19.88 NASDAQ -1.83 SP500 +2.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1086/1.55 bln/1550 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1427/840 mln/1576

2:30 pm : In mid-afternoon trade, the major averages continue to trade modestly in the red. While the S&P 500 and Dow Jones are near the unchanged levels, the Nasdaq Composite is lower by nearly half a percent. Notably, after the close today, several technology companies are scheduled to report third quarter results, including Google (GOOG 529.24 -6.08), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 6.10 -0.15), and IBM (IBM 126.81 -1.54).

On the positive side, the energy stocks are putting in solid gains, with that sector up about 1.5%. Some top performers in this industry include Schlumberger (SLB 68.67 +2.63), Baker Hughes (BHI 47.43 +1.22), and Halliburton (29.78 +0.59).DJ30 -10.8 NASDAQ -8.7 SP500 -1.3 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 946/1397/1681 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1267/759.9/1721

2:00 pm : Airline stocks are struggling this session. That has the Amex Airline Index down 1.8%, which comes in the wake of third quarter earnings from Southwest Airlines (LUV 9.45, -0.59). The company posted adjusted earnings of $0.03 per share, which is a penny better than the consensus estimate. Excluded from the earnings was a charge of $27 million related to the company's early-out program.

Meanwhile, the broader market continues to trade with a moderate loss, though stocks are quickly approaching the unchanged mark.DJ30 -13.07 NASDAQ -8.97 SP500 -1.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 915/1.30 bln/1716 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1228/700 mln/1765

1:30 pm : The U.S. dollar has reversed early weakness so that it now trades flat against a basket of foreign currencies. The rebound hasn't done much to undercut oil prices, though. Instead, oil futures contracts are being priced at $77.20 per barrel, up 2.7%.

Gold hasn't been so fortunate, though. Gold prices are down 1.3% to $1050.50 per ounce.

Despite the mixed action between previous metals prices and energy contract prices, the CRB Commodity Index is still up 0.9%.DJ30 -7.71 NASDAQ -6.67 SP500 -1.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 889/1.21 bln/1739 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1219/645 mln/1754

1:05 pm : A sell-the-news reaction to an upbeat report from Goldman Sachs (GS 188.31, -3.97) and Citigroup (C 4.73, -0.27) has caused stocks to make a pullback from the 2009 highs that were set in the previous session. However, overall losses have been limited.

Despite better-than-expected third quarter results from Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, their shares are on the slide and have taken the broader financial sector to a 1.4% loss, which has weighed on the broader market for the entire session. Selling comes on the heels of a surprisingly strong Wednesday morning report from JPMorgan Chase (JPM 46.86, -0.31), which triggered broad-based gains during the previous session and effectively priced in some of this morning's earnings news.

However, energy stocks have managed to put together a 1.1% gain in the face of broader market weakness. The sector's climb comes as oil prices rise to fresh 2009 highs in the wake of a smaller-than-expected build in weekly oil inventories. Oil futures prices are currently up 2.4% to $76.95 per barrel.

With earnings news garnering more attention, the U.S. dollar has been getting less recognition for its role in influencing the market's direction. The greenback is currently down 0.2%, which marks its fourth straight session of losses against foreign currencies. Such weakness has supported stocks by enhancing the sales of multinationals and boosting prices for many of the commodities sold by materials companies.

Economic data contained has contained few surprises. September CPI data showed modest increases and was largely in-line with expectations. The latest initial jobless claims were down slightly and a bit below the consensus forecast, but they still stand at alarming levels. Ex-Fed Chairman Greenspan said U.S. companies have likely cut too many workers and will likely need to add workers, according to Dow Jones.

Meanwhile, the Empire State Manufacturing Index proved better than expected and the Philadelphia Fed Index for October was in step with expectations with its third straight positive figure. DJ30 -19.72 NASDAQ -8.45 SP500 -2.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 859/1.13 bln/1749 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1158/599 mln/1805

12:30 pm : The Dow recently poked into positive territory, but has since handed back a few points so that it trades with a fractional loss once again. The broader S&P 500 has yet to touch higher ground.

Nonetheless, the stock market's improved position comes amid considerable strength among energy stocks. The energy sector is currently sporting a 0.9% gain, which is better than any other major sector. Energy's ascent comes as oil prices extend their advance to $77.20 per barrel, which translates to a 2.7% gain. That marks a fresh 2009 high for oil prices. DJ30 -11.33 NASDAQ -7.39 SP500 -1.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 863/1.02 bln/1720 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1160/546 mln/1796

12:00 pm : While earnings reports from Goldman Sachs (GS 188.79, -3.49) and Citigroup (C 4.73, -0.27) have led a sell-the-news reaction among market participants, some of the worst performances in the financial sector are being seen among consumer finance holdings.

Earlier this session, Capital One (COF 37.37, -1.98) reported that its delinquencies increased for a third consecutive month, but showed their largest rise in that time, increasing 29 bps on a managed basis to 5.38%.

Meanwhile, Discover (DFS 15.99, -0.27) disclosed September trust data, which showed that delinquencies increased by a larger-than-expected 22 basis points to 5.57%. Both early-stage delinquencies and a roll through of delinquencies in August caused the overall rise.

In a similar vein, analysts at Credit Suisse believe that credit losses for card issuers will rise 100 basis points year-over-year to 10.7% and, in turn, believe card networks like MasterCard (MA 220.19, +0.71) and Visa (V 74.24, -0.56) are more compelling.DJ30 -17.76 NASDAQ -9.62 SP500 -2.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 813/894 mln/1752 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1061/485 mln/1878

11:30 am : The major indices continue to chop along in negative territory with moderate losses. Defensive-oriented stocks continue to show strength, though.

The U.S. dollar has been struck with a fit of weakness. The greenback had looked as if its recent string of losses would steady in the early going, but it is now down 0.2% against a major basket of currencies.DJ30 -27.96 NASDAQ -11.61 SP500 -3.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 762/797 mln/1776 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 965/431 mln/1930

11:00 am : Stocks recently retreated to fresh session lows, but they have since made a rebound to moderate losses.

Financials continue to underpin the braoder market's overall weakness. The sector is currently down 1.3% as investors move to sell the news associated with positive quarterly announcements from Goldman Sachs (GS 188.20, -4.08) and Citigroup (C 4.77, -0.23).

However, energy stocks have jumped out to a 0.2% gain amid news that the latest batch of oil inventory data showed a smaller-than-expected build of 334,000 barrels. That has also propped up oil prices, which are now at session highs of $76.15 per barrel, up 1.4%.DJ30 -15.72 NASDAQ -9.55 SP500 -2.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 735/650 mln/1763 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1021/359 mln/1860

10:35 am : November crude oil bounced off morning lows of $74.79 per barrel and is back into positive territory. Ahead of weekly inventory data, which will be released at 11:00ET, crude is trading 0.2% higher at $75.36 per barrel.

November natural gas has been tracking crude, but spiked off its morning lows of $4.373 per MMBtu and into positive territory and new session highs of $4.561 per MMBtu. Ahead of inventory data, natural gas was trading 2.3% higher at $4.54 per MMBtu. Following the data, which showed a build of 58 bcf (consensus called for a build of 52 bcf) natural gas fell back to the unchanged line and is currently 0.2% higher at $4.447 per MMBtu.

The US Dollar Index moved back near the unchanged line, but precious metals remain in negative territory.

December gold put in lows of $1047.40 per ounce and is currently trading down 0.8% at $1055.9 per ounce. December silver hit lows of $17.36 per ounce this morning and is trading at $17.635 per ounce, down 1.5%.DJ30 -22.48 NASDAQ -8.98 SP500 -3.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 680/466.4 mln/1744 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 953/260.7 mln/1877

10:00 am : The stock market had been paring losses in morning trade, but trading became rather choppy in the moments following the Philadelphia Fed Index for October. The Index came in at 11.5, which is fractionally below the reading of 12.0 that was widely expected, but marked the third straight positive figure for the series. That hasn't happened since late 2007.

Advancing Sectors: Utilities (+0.2%), Consumer Staples (+0.2%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Financials (-1.2%), Tech (-0.3%), Industrials (-0.2%), Materials (-0.2%), Energy (-0.1%)
Unchanged: Telecom, Health CareDJ30 -7.33 NASDAQ -4.95 SP500 -2.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 740/297 mln/1588 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 923/175 mln/1832

09:45 am : Financials continue to lead the broader market, though the direction this session is downward. Given the financial sector's current 1.6% loss, the broader market is also trading with weakness. Such weakness has taken the Dow back below 10,000.

There are a few areas of support for the broader market, however. Consumer staples stocks (+0.4%), health care (+0.3%), and utilties (+0.2%), all defensive-oriented, are in the green.DJ30 -19.12 NASDAQ -7.92 SP500 -2.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 662/164 mln/1558 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 877/121 mln/1827

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.30. Stock futures have the major indices poised to start the session modestly lower. The downward move comes as participants engage in a sell-the-news type of reaction to better-than-expected earnings reports from Goldman Sachs (GS) and Citigroup (C), both of which posted marked gains in the previous session as the broader market made its way to fresh 2009 highs. However, the pullback this morning has been steadied a bit by the latest batch of economic data, which featured in-line CPI data, in-line weekly jobless claims, and a solid Empire State Manufacturing Index.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.80. Stock futures are still down ahead of the opening bell. Europe's major stock listings are also showing weakness. As such, Germany's DAX is down 0.5% with declining issues holding a slight edge over advancers. Global mobile phone giant Nokia (NOK) has weighed on European trading by posting a surprise net loss, though its adjusted earnings per share results were better than expected. In Britain, the FTSE is currently off by 0.5%. Commodity stocks are showing weakness amid news from The Wall Street Journal that Rio Tinto (RTP) and BHP Billiton (BHP) have agreed not to jointly market any output from their proposed iron ore joint venture. Meanwhile, Anglo American (AAUK) is down after Xstrata (XTA) said it will not make a formal takeover offer. In France, the CAC is currently down 0.3%. Vivendi is a primary laggard after its board put on hold a decision regarding whether to sell a 20% stake in NBC Universal, according to Bloomberg.com. In economic news, Dow Jones reported that Euro-zone consumer prices fell in annual terms for the fourth consecutive month in September. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index closed 0.6% higher. Japan's Nikkei jumped 1.8%. Japanese stocks were led by exporters and tech shares. Exporters also climbed, favoring Sony (SNE), Honda (HMC), and Toyota Motor (TM). In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 0.5% higher. Banks, property and export-related stocks charged ahead. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite finished 0.3% higher, led by brokerage shares, on strong earnings and upbeat economic data.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.30. Stock futures extended their morning slide following the release of Citigroup's (C) quarterly results, which featured a loss of $0.27 per share. That wasn't as bad as the loss of $0.38 per share that had been widely expected, though. The sell-the-news reaction to better-than-expected numbers began when Goldman Sachs (GS) beat the Street's consensus earlier this morning. The latest batch of economic data has improved the tone of things, however. The September Consumer Price Index increased 0.2%, as expected, while core CPI increased 0.2%, which is a tad above the 0.1% increase that economists had come to expect. The Empire State Manufacturing Index for October came in at 34.57, which topped the 17.25 that was widely expected. Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10 totaled 514,000, which was a bit below the consensus forecast of 520,000 initial claims. Initial claims for the previous week were revised slightly higher to 524,000. Continuing claims came in at 5.99 million, which is just below the 6.00 million that was widely expected. Continuing claims were last below 6.00 million in March.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.00. After reaching new 2009 highs in the previous session, stocks are making a bit of a pullback in premarket trading. The move lower comes as participants react in a sell-the-news manner to a better-than-expected earnings report from Goldman Sachs (GS). During the third quarter the firm brought in $5.25 per share, which bested the consensus estimate of $4.24 per share. Though there weren't any negative surprises, the stock is down more than 2% to $187.85 per share in premarket trade. With participants inclined to sell even positive news, shares of Citigroup (C) are down roughly 2.4% to $4.88 per share ahead of the company's quarterly report, which is expected sometime this morning. Participants also await CPI data for September, New York October manufacturing data, and weekly jobless claims, all of which are due at the bottom of the hour. The Philadelphia Fed Index is due at 10:00 AM ET.

06:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.50.

06:20 am : Nikkei...10238.65...+178.40...+1.80%. Hang Seng...21999.08...+112.60...+0.50%.

06:20 am : FTSE...5244.75...-11.40...-0.20%. DAX...5850.07...-3.60...-0.10%.

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