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 Post subject: October 9th Friday 2009 Emini ES ($ES_F) points -16.50
PostPosted: Sat Oct 10, 2009 7:33 am 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=66&t=334

Quote:
I was more prepared to trade today than yesterday but my results doesn't show such. It was another losing trading effort...first time in many years I had back to back losing trading days eventhough the losses are small in comparison to my average daily profit level. The main difference today was the unusual number of breakeven trades in which I normally would have taken the +0.25 to +0.75 profit. In addition, the trade errors were costly eventhough the individual trade losses were small.

With all that said, as stated in the above #FuturesTrades log, my trading didn't improve until after Pres. Obama's speech which concluded around 1123am est. Simply, being a trader of volatility, the low volatility trading range prior to his speech was due to the market having only one thing to look at on a Friday prior to a holiday...it was waiting for Pres. Obama's speech. :((

By the way, Monday is a holiday and I won't be trading. Thus, see all on October 13th Tuesday.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their efforts in trade signals while ignoring the impact on their trading results via market psychology, trader psychology (trading habits/routine and personal lifestyle). If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: -16.50 Emini ES ($ES_F) points

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Stocks Spike To New '09 Highs
Major market indexes rise as trade gap surprisingly narrows and dollar bounces off recent lows.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: October 9, 2009: 6:48 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Friday at the end of a strong week, with the Dow and S&P 500 hitting their highest levels in over a year as investors extended a seven-month rally.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 78 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index gained 6 points, or 0.6% and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) climbed 15 points, or 0.7%.

The Dow gained in four of five sessions this week and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained in all five sessions, as investors dove back in after a two-week selloff.

Wall Street briefly topped 2009 closing highs during the session Thursday, before closing just modestly lower. Thursday's run was fueled by Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500)'s better-than-expected profit report, a bigger-than-expected drop in jobless claims, and the first rise in monthly retail sales figures in a year.

The improved economic and earnings-related news was indicative of a week that brought a lot of better-than-expected reports, helping investors set aside renewed worries that the market has gotten too far ahead of the recovery. Such concerns fueled the previous two weeks of selling.

"We heard a lot of talk during the selloff that earnings were going to be weak, and at the same time we got a lot of mixed economic news," said Timothy Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management. "But this week, we've seen more favorable economic news and Alcoa."

He said that the reversal in the data was enough to give Wall Streeters the go ahead to jump back in at lower levels, a trend that has been in place all year.

Since bottoming on March 9 at a 12-year low, the S&P 500 has spiked 58%. Despite the pace of the run, Ghriskey says the market probably still has more room to run.

"It's inevitable that we'll see more pullbacks, but even a bigger selloff would probably just serve to bring in more buyers," he said. "There is still enough skepticism about the rally and enough cash waiting to be invested to fuel more gains."

Friday was also the two-year anniversary of the Dow and S&P 500 closing at all-time highs. And 24 tumultuous months later, both averages are still more than 30% below those highs.

Economy: The deficit narrowed to $30.7 billion in August, from a revised $31.9 billion in the previous month, the government reported Friday morning. That figure surprised economists, who were looking for the deficit to widen to $33 billion, according to a Briefing.com survey.

The Commerce Department report showed that exports rose, adding to bets that the global economy is recovering. The drop in imports was also a surprise to economists, who thought higher oil prices would have impacted the number.

Ben Bernanke: The Federal Reserve Chairman said Thursday night that while interest rates will stay low for a while, the Fed will have to start boosting rates as the recovery picks up, in order to fight off the threat of inflation.

Bernanke was speaking at a conference in Washington in which he discussed the Fed's still-expanding balance sheet in the aftermath of its multitrillion-dollar efforts to help temper the pace of the recession.

His comments boosted the U.S. dollar, which has been stumbling for several weeks, hitting multi-month lows against a basket of other currencies.

Obama: President Obama won the Nobel Peace Prize Friday for his efforts in strengthening cooperation around the world and trying to reduce the usage of nuclear weapons. The announcement was a shock, as Obama's name had not been mentioned among potential front runners.

World markets: Global markets were mixed. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 ended a few points higher, while France's CAC 40 and Germany's DAX was ended lower. Asian markets ended higher.

Currency and commodities: The dollar gained versus the euro and yen, reversing its recent slide against a basket of currencies.

U.S. light crude oil for November delivery rose 8 cents to settle at $71.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for December delivery fell $7.70 to settle at $1,048.60 an ounce, the third straight record high for the precious metal.

Bonds: Treasury prices tumbled, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 3.30% from 3.25% late Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Market breadth was positive and lighter than average. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by three to two on volume of 990 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners two to one on volume of 1.97 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:20 pm : Some late buying helped the stock market finish the session at its high point and secure its fifth straight gain, a feat that hasn't happened in one month. What's more, stocks logged a weekly gain of 4.5%, which is the best weekly performance since July.

This session's advance was solid and broad-based as every major sector, except telecom (-0.8%), finished higher. Tech (+1.1%) and health care (+1.0) were the best performing sectors.

Unlike recent sessions, the advance came in the face of a stronger U.S. dollar, which gained 0.6% against a basket of major foreign currencies after Fed Chairman Bernanke said last evening that the Fed can't indefinitely continue its policy accommodation for fear of triggering inflationary pressure. The statement wasn't anything new, but it was enough to lend support in the context of the dollar's recent doldrums.

The dollar's strength did threaten to undercut stocks stocks midsession, but the broader market garnered support as the S&P 500 slipped toward the neutral line.

Strength in the dollar did undercut precious metals prices. In turn, gold futures closed with a 0.7% loss at $1048.71 per ounce as they pulled back from the record highs of $1062.70 per ounce that were reached in the previous session. Silver prices closed down 0.8% at $17.68 per ounce.

Crude oil futures were able to break free from the dollar's hold, however. Oil prices had been down more than 1% in the early going, but recovered to settle with a fractional gain at $71.93 per barrel. Natural gas prices weren't so fortunate; they closed down 4.0% at $4.77 per contract, near session lows.

Treasuries were out of favor for the entire session as traders continued the selling effort that began shortly after Thursday's 30-year Bond auction. The benchmark 10-year Note dropped more than one full point, while the 30-year Bond dropped more than two points. Recent losses have lifted their respective yields to roughly 3.4% and 4.2%. DJ30 +78.07 NASDAQ +15.35 NQ100 +0.6% R2K +1.2% SP400 +0.7% SP500 +6.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1815/1.95 bln/858 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1804/989 mln/1188

3:35 pm : The broader market recently pushed to a session high before fading at the 1071 resistance level. Utilities and the healthcare stocks are providing support in the afternoon's minor push higher. They are currently up 0.6% and 0.9%, respectively.

Strength in the dollar muted the recent strength in precious metals. December gold futures closed down 0.7% at $1048.71 per ounce after trading in the red for the entire pit trade. Silver futures managed to break the unchanged level momentarily in the morning session. However, gains were short-lived. They traded in negative territory for the rest of the session and closed down 0.8% at $17.68 per ounce.

Crude oil futures were able to muster marginal gains this session. After trading between $70.62 per barrel and $72.27 per barrel, the November contract closed at $71.93 per barrel, up fractionally. November natural gas futures prices saw a steady decline throughout the pit trade. They closed down 4.0% at $4.77 per contract, not far off the session low at $4.75 per contract.DJ30 +64.77 NASDAQ +14.01 SP500 +4.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1715/1.6 bln/956 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1701/700 mln/1278

3:00 pm : Stocks have made a modest upward move, which has taken them to fresh session highs. Gains remain modest, however.

The recent move has been generally broad-based and comes as stocks enter into the final hour of this week's trade. Considerable resistance remains in the 1069 to 1071 zone, though.DJ30 +57.89 NASDAQ +10.86 SP500 +3.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1639/1.44 bln/1025 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1591/624 mln/1359

2:30 pm : The major sectors in the S&P 500 are evenly split between gainers and decliners, but the broader market continues to sport a modest gain. That has the stock market on track for a 4.0% weekly gain. Such an advance would make for the stock market's best weekly performance since July.

Expected volatility has fallen amid the stock market's string of recent gains. In turn, the Volatility Index, or VIX, is down 2.7% this session.DJ30 +42.02 NASDAQ +7.66 SP500 +2.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1567/1.34 bln/1065 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1448/569 mln/1495

2:00 pm : Stocks continue to trade with modest gains. The advance has put the stock market on track to log its fifth straight gain. That last occurred one month ago.

This session's action has slowed and trading volume has failed to impress. That is typical of Friday afternoon trade, though.

Looking ahead to next week's calendar, September retail sales data are due on Wednesday along with import price data for September. CPI data for September are due on Thursday with weekly jobless claims data. Industrial production data for September are due on Friday.

As for earnings, more than 50 companies have confirmed announcements. A full calendar is available on Briefing.com's Earnings Calendar.DJ30 +44.21 NASDAQ +7.89 SP500 +2.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1561/1.26 bln/1054 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1472/531 mln/1561

1:30 pm : Stocks have made their way back to earlier levels, where they traded with solid gains. Meanwhile, the Dow has made its way to a session high, though the advance remains relatively tame.

Health care stocks and technology stocks are sporting impressive gains, however. Both sectors are now up 0.9%. Telecom remains at the other end of the scale; the sector is down 0.9%.DJ30 +45.50 NASDAQ +10.56 SP500 +2.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1572/1.17 bln/1022 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1507/489 mln/1410

1:00 pm : The stock market reversed an opening loss to spend most of the morning sporting modest gains in the face of a rebound by the U.S. dollar, but a recent spike by the greenback was enough to sent the S&P 500 to the neutral line. Stocks have since regrouped and are back to making modest gains.

Ongoing weakness in the U.S. dollar sent the Dollar Index to a yearly low in the previous session, but last evening Fed Chairman Bernanke put a bid under the dollar by indicating that that the Fed can't continue its policy accommodation indefinitely for fear of triggering inflationary pressure. Though that wasn't a new development, it was enough to lend support in the context of the dollar's recent weakness.

Stocks have spent weeks trading in opposite direction of the dollar, but equities were able to log modest gains alongside a bounce in the currency this morning. However, with the Dollar Index now up 0.7% and looking to make its best percentage gain in more than one week, stocks have lost some of their strength.

Stocks also face technical resistance in the 1069 to 1071 zone, which has now stymied gains for two straight sessions. The resistance zone coincides with the stock markets 2009 closing high.

Despite listless trade among equities, Treasuries have been mired in weakness. As such, the benchmark 10-year Note has lost more than one full point, which has sent its yield up to nearly 3.4%, while the 30-year Bond has dropped more than two points, which has sent its yield up above 4.2%. Both have seen their yields rise roughly 20 basis points since selling pressure took hold following Thursday's 30-year Bond auction.

Commodities are also displaying weakness this session. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index is off by 0.5%. Gold prices have fallen 1.0% to $1044.60 per ounce after setting record highs of $1062.70 per ounce in the previous session. Oil prices are currently down fractionally to $71.65 per barrel, though it had showed some strength this morning by diverging itself from the dollar and rallying from a loss of more than 1% to a modest gain. DJ30 +33.93 NASDAQ +7.43 SP500 +1.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1489/1.07 bln/1066 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1441/446 mln/1454

12:30 pm : The stock market had spent this morning generally trading with disregard for the U.S. dollar's strength, unlike recent sessions, but a recent spike by the greenback was enough to catch the attention of market participants and cause a flurry of selling pressure. With the Dollar Index now up 0.7%, which takes it to a session high and makes for its best percentage gain in more than one week, the stock market is back at the neutral line.

The recent fit of weakness among stocks has given declining issues a slight edge over advancers in the S&P 500.DJ30 +28.87 NASDAQ +6.44 SP500 +0.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1472/970 mln/1070 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1311/405 mln/1565

12:00 pm : Semiconductor stocks are showing particular strength this session. In particular, Texas Instruments (TXN 23.34, +0.81), Novellus Systems (NVLS 20.90, +0.57), and Altera (ALTR 20.90, +0.75) are providing leadership to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which is up 2.2% at the moment. Altera is scheduled to announce its latest quarterly results next week, but the other two outfits will not be making announcements for two more weeks. However, investors should note that in mid-September Texas Instruments raised its outlook for the third quarter.DJ30 +33.40 NASDAQ +9.07 SP500 1.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1510/873 mln/1008 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1415/362 mln/1425

11:30 am : Action remains choppy, though the major indices have been confined to a relatively narrow range. The S&P 500, in particular, has had a cieling at 1069, which is at the low end of a significant resistance zone that coincides with the stock market's 2009 closing high.

Meanwhile, Treasuries remain in a funk. The benchmark 10-year Note is currently down nearly one full point, while the 30-year Bond has surrendered more than one point for the second straight session. Due to their declines, the 10-year Note is now yielding 3.35% and the 30-year Bond is offering 4.17%. DJ30 +34.23 NASDAQ +10.34 SP500 +2.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1552/764 mln/938 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1538/316 mln/1273

11:00 am : Stocks are chopping along in positive territory, trying to keep their bullish trend intact, even though there hasn't been much leadership to speak of this session.

Amid a general lack of leadership, telecom stocks have been left to flounder for the third straight session. The sector is currently down 1.2%, which takes it to a week-to-date loss of 3.0%. Meanwhile, the broader S&P 500 is up 4.0% this week.DJ30 +32.57 NASDAQ +10.01 SP500 +2.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1490/609 mln/938 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1605/253 mln/1180

10:30 am : The stock market is back near session highs in recent trading activity, while the US Dollar Index is higher again after moving off of the unchanged line.

October crude oil chopped around under the unchanged line overnight until hitting lows of $70.62 per barrel a few minutes after the open of pit trading. Crude spiked off those lows into positive territory and to fresh morning highs of $72.24 per barrel shortly thereafter. Crude is currently 0.3% higher at $71.87 per barrel.

October natural gas trade right around the unchanged line until hitting highs well before the open of pit trading. Natural gas has since traded lower to morning lows of $4.87 and is currently 1.4% lower at $4.894 per MMBtu.

Precious metals remain in negative territory due to this morning's strength in the dollar. December gold is currently 0.6% lower at $1049.80 per ounce, while December silver is 0.2% lower at $17.78 per ounce.DJ30 +25.92 NASDAQ +9.03 SP500 +2.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1509/458.1/840 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1547/195.0 mln/1136

10:00 am : The stock market continues to sport a modest gain after an early recovery from negative territory. The advance has stalled a bit, though, as the S&P 500 continues to face resistance in the 1069 to 1071 zone, which twice kept stocks from extending their advance during the previous session.

Treasuries appear to be in a bit of trouble as they extend the previous session's slide. The benchmark 10-year Note is currently down a considerable 20 ticks, which has sent its yield back above 3.3%. It had been yielding below 3.2% in early trading on Thursday.

Advancing Sectors: Tech (+0.5%), Financials (+0.3%), Health Care (+0.3%), Materials (+0.3%), Industrials (+0.2%), Utilities (+0.2%), Energy (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Telecom (-0.8%), Consumer Staples (-0.3%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.1%)

Early Movers: Trading up -- SCIL +74.1%, CAGC +18.9%, THLD +14.5%, SRZ +13.6%, PSTA +13.5%, AVNR +12.6%, SVNT +9.4%, IVAN +8.7%, UCTT +8.6%, SDTH +8.3%; Trading down -- ELGX -19.7%, STC -14.8%, NCR -12.6%, SVNT -11.8%, BKS -11.6%, FNSRD -10.3%, TRGT -8.6%, LAD -8.6%DJ30 +23.30 NASDAQ +8.20 SP500 +2.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1381/272 mln/837 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1417/124 mln/1189

09:45 am : Weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar, stocks started the session in negative territory. However, they have since made a sudden push into positive ground. The turnaround comes even though the Dollar Index is near its morning high, sporting a gain of 0.4%.DJ30 +15.79 NASDAQ +4.67 SP500 +1.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1194/148 mln/914 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1151/78 mln/1395

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.50. Following two consecutive weekly losses, the S&P 500 is currently up nearly 4% week-to-date. That comes as a result of four straight gains. Advancing for a fifth consecutive session could be tough, though. The current indication by stock futures is that a lower start is in order. The relatively dour mood comes amid a rebounding U.S. dollar, which has been helped off of the yearly lows that it hit yesterday by relatively supportive comments by Fed Chairman Bernanke. The greenback's gains have also undercut commodities this morning. Gold has pulled back to $1048.50 per ounce, down 0.7%, while crude oil futures have shed 1.3% to trade at $70.80 per barrel, even though the International Energy Agency increased its demand forecast for 2010. There haven't been many news items for traders to assess this morning, though the trade balance for August was released earlier. It showed a smaller-than-expected trade deficit of $30.7 billion.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.00. Germany's DAX has fallen 0.5% in Friday's trade. Declining issues outnumber advancers by 5-to-1 in the German bourse. Even shares of Deutsche Bank (DB) are down, despite an upgrade from analysts at Credit Suisse. According to reports, Germany's trade surplus narrowed unexpectedly in August as exports fell for the first time in four months. In France, the CAC is off by 0.5%. Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) is a primary laggard in current action. ArcelorMittal (MT) is also trading with weakness after having its shares downgraded by analysts at RBS. As for Britain's FTSE, it has fallen 0.3%. BP PLC (BP) is currently leading the list of laggards, but its peer Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) is providing support to the broader market amid an increased forecast for global oil demand by the International Energy Agency. In economic news, U.K. factory prices increased more than expected in September by rising 0.5%. Economists had expected output producer prices to rise 0.1% in September. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei put together a 1.9% gain. Exporters Kyocera (KYO), Canon (CAJ), and Honda Motor (HMC) climbed on a weaker yen. Honda repeated its goal to raise Japan sales by 13%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng settled flat. Financials were split as Industrial & Commecial Bank and China Construction Bank made gains, but Bank of China and HSBC (HBC) faltered. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 4.8% higher and the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index settled 0.4% higher.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.30. Stock futures have slid a bit as the U.S. dollar slowly strengthens and climbs up from the 12-month lows that it registered Thursday. The Dollar Index is now up 0.2%. Trade balance data for August just hit news wires. According to the report, the trade deficit improved to $30.7 billion from $31.9 billion. Economists, on average, had expected the trade deficit for August to total $33 billion.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.50. Stock futures currently trade modestly below fair value as the U.S. dollar makes a moderate gain against foreign currencies. The greenback had been mired in weakness during recent sessions, but was given support by comments last evening from Fed Chairman Bernanke, who indicated that U.S. monetary policy could be tightened as a recovery takes hold. According to Reuters, Bernanke went on to say that the Fed must continue to prop up the economy for an extended period, but it can't do so indefinitely for fear of triggering an inflationary surge. With the dollar firmed up, gold and oil futures prices are down a bit after logging strong gains in the previous session. Gold futures were last quoted 0.4% lower at $1050.80 per ounce. Oil futures were recently quoted 0.5% lower at $71.35 per barrel.

06:17 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.30.

06:17 am : Nikkei...10016.39...+183.90...+1.90%. Hang Seng...21499.44...+6.50...0.00.

06:17 am : FTSE...5143.81...-10.80...-0.20%. DAX...5690.91...-25.70...-0.50%.

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