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 Post subject: October 5th Monday 2009 Emini ES ($ES_F) points +49.75
PostPosted: Mon Oct 05, 2009 5:37 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=66&t=327

Quote:
The first trade of the day @ 0940am est (good entry @ 1022.75) gave most of my profits today and it was easy trading after that. In fact, I did something rare today in my trading in that all my trades was profitable. However, my market analysis prior to the open was that today was going to be a low volatility trading day or a tight trading range. Instead it was a slow developing trend day that was actually a trend continuation in reaction to Friday's price action. In addition, there are some nice profit targets above and below today's closing price to setup some easy trading tomorrow regardless if its a range day or trend day. Yet, I will keep my overall average position size small although my first or second trades may be normal size.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their efforts in trade signals while ignoring the impact on their trading results via market psychology, trader psychology (trading habits/routine and personal lifestyle). If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +49.75 Emini ES ($ES_F) points

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Stocks Recharge the Run
Wall Street manages gains after a two-week selloff, as investors propel financial, energy and technology shares.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: October 5, 2009: 4:16 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Monday, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all gaining at least 1%, as investors used a two-week selloff as an opportunity to jump back into the market.

A better-than-expected reading on the services sector of the economy and strong demand for Treasury's first bond auction of the week bolstered the broad-based gains.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 112 points, or 1.2%, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 (SPX) index gained 15 points, or 1.5%, and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 20 points, or 1%.

Bank stocks led the advance, with Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) up 3.8%, JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) up 4.6% and Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) up 6.9%. The KBW Banking (BKX) index added 3.2%.

A roughly seven-month-long rally hit a roadblock at the end of September, with stocks falling for two straight weeks, and the major gauges losing around 5%. The declines were driven by a series of weaker-than-expected economic reports on housing, manufacturing, consumer confidence and employment.

The weak batch of reports marked a reversal after a period of steadily improving economic news. That raised more worries that the rally has gotten ahead of the recovery. Still, the declines over the last two weeks were pretty minimal, considering the runup that preceded them.

"I think the underlying trend of the market is still positive, despite the last two weeks," said Ted Weisberg, NYSE Floor Trader at Seaport Securities. "You're seeing that start to reassert itself today."

He said that the last two weeks of the old quarter and first two of the new one are typically something of a Never Never Land for the market, as investors await results and focus 100% on economic news. He said that this was true in the month surrounding the end of the second quarter and start of the third in July and it appears to be true again now.

"The risk, as we've seen over the last few weeks, is that the news can be less than terrific, making markets vulnerable," he said. "That's particularly the case after the kind of rally we've seen."

Since bottoming at a 12-year low March 9, the S&P 500 has gained 51.2%, and the Dow has gained 45% as of Friday's close. After hitting a six-year low, the Nasdaq has gained nearly 61%.

In the third quarter alone, the S&P 500 index and the Dow both jumped 15%, the best quarterly performance in a decade. The Nasdaq jumped 15.7%, its best quarterly performance since 2003.

Results on tap: The wave of third-quarter earnings reports due in the week ahead will determine whether the selloff continues or proves to be an entry point for more buyers. Alcoa unofficially begins the third-quarter reporting period Wednesday, as it usually does. The Dow aluminum maker is due to report a quarterly loss versus a profit a year ago, reflecting a weak materials sector.

Overall, S&P 500 profits are expected to have dropped almost 25% from the third quarter of 2008.

On the move: In addition to financials, the Dow's other big gainers included Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), United Technologies (UTX, Fortune 500), 3M (MMM, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500). Of the 30 Dow components, 22 gained.

Among stock movers, Brocade Communications (BRCD) rallied 15% in unusually active trading on reports that it has put itself up for sale. Both Hewlett-Packard and Oracle (ORCL, Fortune 500) were cited as potential buyers, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Economy: The Institute for Supply Management's services sector index rose to 50.9 in September from 48.4 in August. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought it would rise to 50.0.

World markets: Global markets were mixed. In Europe, London's FTSE 100, France's CAC 40 and Germany's DAX all gained around 0.7%. Asian markets were mixed, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng higher and the Japanese Nikkei lower.

Currency and commodities: The dollar tumbled versus the euro and the yen, resuming its recent plunge against a basket of currencies.

U.S. light crude oil for October delivery rose 46 cents to $70.41 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for December delivery rose $13.50 to settle at $1,017.80 an ounce. Gold closed at a record high of $1,020.20 two weeks ago.

Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.20% from 3.22% late Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions. The government's sale of $7 billion in 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) saw strong demand, a good sign at the start of a week that brings $78 billion in debt auctions.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers five to one on volume of 650 million shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers two to one on volume of 1.54 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : A strong advance by the financial sector and a weaker U.S. dollar helped give the stock market its first gain in five sessions.

The major indices started the session with modest gains, but shares of diversified banks wasted little time putting together their best percentage gain in two months. The group was helped along by news that analysts at Goldman Sachs raised their rating on the U.S. large-cap bank sector. Diversified banks finished the session 5.6% higher, which lifted the broader financial sector to a 3.3% gain and helped it outperform every other major sector.

The U.S. dollar declined 0.5% against a basket of major foreign currencies despite concerns that its weakness could disrupt the global economy. However, the weaker dollar proved beneficial to both stocks and commodities once again.

Amid the dollar's drop the CRB Commodity Index gained 1.3%. The advance reflected a sharp a sharp 1.3% gain in gold prices, which settled at $1017.80 per ounce. A rebound in oil prices also helped. Crude futures had been as low as $68.05 per barrel, but rallied to finish with a 0.7% gain at $70.41 per barrel.

Oil's rebound helped the energy sector climb to a 2.2% gain. The materials sector finished 2.0% higher.

Though broad-based buying helped all 10 major sectors finish in higher ground, stocks did have to overcome a fit of midmorning selling pressure. Sellers had stepped in just minutes after the September ISM Services Index showed a better-than-expected reading of 50.9, but stocks rebounded when the Dow and Nasdaq Composite came in contact with the neutral line. Stocks spent the rest of the session working higher and closed a few points off of session highs.

Advancing Sectors: Financials (+3.3%), Energy (+2.2%), Materials (+2.0%), Industrials (+1.9%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.8%), Utilities (+1.2%), Telecom (+0.8%), Tech (+0.8%), Health Care (+0.5%), Consumer Staples (+0.2%)
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +112.08 NASDAQ +20.04 NQ100 +0.8% R2K +1.9% SP400 +2.1% SP500 +15.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1964/2.17 bln/730 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2539/1.11 bln/521

3:30 pm : A weaker U.S. dollar helped stocks start the session on stronger footing and also helped spur a supportive bid for commodities. With the Dollar Index currently down 0.5%, near session lows, the CRB Commodity Index is up 1.3%, near session highs.

Precious metals were a primary source of support for the CRB. Following a slow start, gold prices spiked midsession and held strong into the close. Gold prices settled 1.3% higher at $1017.80 per ounce. Silver also netted a strong gain; it settled nearly 2.3% higher at $16.54 per ounce.

Oil prices opened lower and fell as low as $68.05 per barrel before rallying midsession. Contract prices for crude oil settled almost 0.7% higher at $70.41 per barrel. Meanwhile, natural gas prices finished a sharp 5.7% higher at $4.99 per contract.DJ30 +120.39 NASDAQ +21.60 SP500 +15.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1997/1.72 bln/684 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2555/721 mln/478

3:00 pm : All three major indices have made their way to fresh session highs. Gains remain broad-based as nearly 85% of the companies listed in the S&P 500 are up and 24 of the 30 Dow components sport gains.

Strength is even more pronounced among small-caps and large-caps. Their gains have led the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index 2.0% higher and the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index 2.2% higher.

Amid this session's broad-based advance, expected volatility has fallen. In turn, the Volatility Index is down 7.1%.DJ30 +129.53 NASDAQ +23.79 SP500 +16.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1858/1.53 bln/797 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2440/635 mln/568

2:30 pm : Stocks are starting to push to fresh session highs, but there isn't an immediate catalyst to account for the move.

Nonetheless, gains remain broad-based and the consumer staples sector is quickly paring its losses. It is still trading with a fractional loss, though.

Meanwhile, financials remain the best performing sector. It is now up 2.7%.DJ30 +94.77 NASDAQ +18.50 SP500 +13.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1826/1.44 bln/812 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2395/594 mln/579

2:00 pm : The stock market is drifting sideways after making its way to session highs roughly one hour ago. Stocks aren't showing a reaction to news reports that the White House has no plans for a second economic stimulus plan.

Meanwhile, commodities are benefiting from an afternoon rally, which has helped take crude oil prices from a loss of more than 1% to a gain of 1.2% at $70.80 per barrel. Gold prices are up an even sharper 1.4% to trade at $1017.60 per ounce.DJ30 +86.61 NASDAQ +18.00 SP500 +12.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1824/1.33 bln/790 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2352/549 mln/619

1:30 pm : A recent $7 billion auction of 10-year TIPS was met with strong demand, such that it produced a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.1, which is well above the previous average of just 2.4. Treasuries have pulled back a bit in the wake of the announcement so that the benchmark 10-year Note now trades flat.

Meanwhile, stocks continue to sport impressive gains near their session highs. Advancing issues outnumber decliners by more than 4-to-1 in the S&P 500.DJ30 +85.85 NASDAQ +17.57 SP500 +12.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1859/1.23 bln/753 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2367/502 mln/582

1:00 pm : Leadership from the financial sector has helped the broader equity market bounce back from four consecutive losses to post solid gains in the first trading session of the week.

Stocks opened the session with moderate gains even though notoriously negative New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini expressed that he believes stocks have climbed too much too fast. His comments came even though stocks just logged two consecutive weekly losses for the first time since July.

Though this session's supportive bid has been broad, diversified banks are garnering particular support. The group is up 5.1% in its best single-session percentage advance in two months, thanks to news from Reuters that analysts at Goldman Sachs raised their rating on the U.S. large-cap bank sector. Wells Fargo (WFC 27.94, +1.66) were given an individual upgrade by the analysts.

Strength among banks stocks has lifted the financial sector to a 2.7% gain, which is better than any other major sector in the S&P 500.

A weaker U.S. dollar has also helped stocks this session. Though the Dollar Index is up more than 1% from the multiyear lows that were set in recent weeks, it has slipped 0.4% this session.

Despite the greenback's decline, commodities are trading in mixed fashion as oil prices slip 0.4% to $69.70 per barrel and gold gains 1.3% to $1016 per ounce.

Stocks were hit with a bit of midmorning selling pressure shortly after a better-than-expected September ISM Services Index of 50.9 helped stocks momentarily extend their initial gains. However, stocks bounced back as the Dow and Nasdaq Composite came in contact with the neutral line. The Dow and the S&P 500 have since made their way to session highs, while the Nasdaq works to return to the session highs it set immediately following the ISM report.

Participants await the results from a $7 billion 10-year TIPS auction at 1:00 PM ET. Treasuries remain in the green ahead of the announcement, with the benchmark 10-year Note up a few ticks. DJ30 +87.67 NASDAQ +17.20 SP500 +12.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1811/1.13 bln/775 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2335/462 mln/606

12:30 pm : Consumer staples stocks remain the only major sector in the S&P 500 to trade with a loss. The sector is curretly down 0.4% amid weakness in CVS (CVS 34.89, -0.43), Hormel (HRL 34.78, -0.68), and Kimberly Clark (KMB 58.20, -0.67). Kimberly Clark announced that it will acquire Baylis Medical Company's pain management business, but financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. DJ30 +68.39 NASDAQ +14.17 SP500 +9.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1784/1.04 bln/773 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2247/424 mln/654

12:00 pm : Following a modest dip, the stock market is back near its session highs as broad-based buying continues to prop things up. The stock market still has a ways to go before it offsets last week's weekly loss of 1.8%, though. Two consecutive weekly losses have stocks down nearly 5% from their 2009 highs, which the S&P 500 set on September 23.

Despite solid interest in stocks, Treasuries are sporting attractive gains. That has the benchmark 10-year Note up 7 ticks, which has sent its yield back below 3.2%.DJ30 +69.53 NASDAQ +15.35 SP500 +10.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1728/935 mln/805 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2171/380 mln/709

11:30 am : The financial sector (+2.3%) continues benefit from strength in shares of diversified banks (+4.5%). That strength has also helped prop up shares of regional banks, which are up 1.6%.

Among regional lenders, troubled CIT Group (CIT 1.22, +0.05) is up handsomely amid news from Dow Jones that the company is in talks with Goldman Sachs (GS 184.40, +4.79) regarding a $3 billion loan. This morning, The Wall Street Journal reported that CIT Group's recently proposed debt-restructuring plan, even if successful, may do little to fix the company's broken lending business. According to the article, CIT's ability to raise funds cheaply remains limited by low credit ratings and restrictions imposed by a banking regulator. DJ30 +63.10 NASDAQ +18.83 SP500 +8.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1810/818 mln/676 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2234/337 mln/616

11:00 am : Stocks have rebounded to fresh morning highs following a recent pullback that took place a few minutes after the release of a better-than-expected ISM Services Index reading for September.

Gains are broad-based as nine of the 10 major sectors sport gains. Only consumer staples stocks (-0.4%) are in the red.

Financials continue to lead the broader market. The sector is now up 2.4%.DJ30 +70.51 NASDAQ +21.53 SP500 +10.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1861/722 mln/617 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2252/305 mln/571

10:30 am : The stock market opened higher this morning and slightly extended gains following a positive ISM Services number. However, the market has since pulled back and is trading only modestly higher.

October crude oil traded near the unchanged line overnight before drifting lower early this morning until hitting session lows of $68.41 per barrel. Crude attempted to rally off lows in recent trade, but that was short-lived as crude is back just above its lows, down 1.7% at $68.83 per barrel.

October natural gas chopped around the flat line overnight, but a few minutes after the open, it spiked to session highs of $4.929 per MMBtu. Natural gas is currently trading just under its highs and is up 3.5% at $4.881 per MMBtu.

The US Dollar Index has traded in negative territory all session, which is providing modest price support to some commodities this morning.

December gold traded in a tight range all session today and is just off overnight lows of $1001.60 per ounce at $1006.6 per ounce, up 0.2%. December silver is tracking gold today and is trading 0.5% higher at $16.305 per ounce, just off its lows of $16.035 per ounce.DJ30 +19.87 NASDAQ +7.06 SP500 +4.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1632/517.9/759 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2041/228.5 mln/712

10:00 am : The ISM Services Index for September came in at 50.9, which is slightly above the consensus estimate of 50.0 and the previous reading of 48.4. The mildly better-than-expected reading has spurred buying in the broader equity market and sent sent stocks to fresh session highs.

The advance has been broad-based and has helped stocks erase their losses from this past Friday's action.

Advancing Sectors: Financials (+2.3%), Materials (+1.5%), Industrials (+1.2%), Consumer Discretionary (+1.2%), Energy (+0.9%), Telecom (+0.2%), Tech (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Consumer Staples (-0.4%), Utilities (-0.1%), Health Care (fractionally lower)

Early Movers: Trading up -- DEPO +36.5%, UCTT +12.9%, BRCD +11.4%, HEAT +10.6%, MTW +9%, VIP +8.7%, RINO +8.2%, HBI +7.7%, NMR +7.6%; Trading down -- FOLD -29.1%, SGEN -15.1%, SCLN -14.5%, HWAY -4.3%, LUV -3.8%

09:45 am : Stocks are making solid gains after an initial slip. Financials are providing leadership as the sector jumps out to a 1.8% gain.

The financial sector's early advance is being underpinned by strength among diversified bank stocks, which are up 4.1% following news from Reuters that analysts at Goldman Sachs upgraded the U.S. large-cap bank sector.

Defensive-oriented stocks are lagging in the first few minutes, however. Consumer staples stocks and utilities are both down 0.4%, while health care is off by 0.2%.DJ30 +36.88 NASDAQ +14.94 SP500 +6.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1656/189 mln/535 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1969/97 mln/652

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.30. Following the stock market's four straight losses, participants have stepped into this morning's premarket trade with a modestly supportive bid. Though stock futures continue to lead fair value, they have drifted off of their morning highs. The descent comes as the U.S. dollar pares its losses against other major currencies. The Dollar Index had been down approximately 0.5% at its overnight low, but it is now trading with a much more modest loss of 0.1%. Still, bank stocks look to be a primary source of support ahead of the opening bell, thanks to news from Reuters that analysts at Goldman Sachs raised their rating on the U.S. large-cap bank sector. News that notoriously negative New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini believes that the stock market has climbed too much too soon doesn't seem to have done much to disrupt the overall tone this morning. Participants look ahead to the ISM Services Index at 10:00 AM ET and results from a $7 billion 10-year TIPS auction at 1:00 PM ET.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.30. Stock futures have drifted off of their morning highs, but they continue to sport a modest lead over fair value. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has managed to lift up from earlier levels, though the Dollar Index is still in the red. Despite a 0.2% decline by the Dollar Index, commodities aren't garnerign much support. As such, crude oil futures are down 1.7% to $68.75 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. Meanwhile, gold prices are flat at $1003.10 per ounce.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.80. U.S. stock futures continue to trade with a positive bias. European stocks are also garnering support, though their gains remain modest. Germany's DAX is currently up 0.4%. Advancing issues outnumber decliners in the German bourse, but Deutsche Bank (DB) is a primary leader in the group. In France, the CAC is up 0.3%. France Telecom and Vivendi are the leading movers there. Financial outfits Axa (AXA), BNP Paribas, and Societe Generale are laggards. Meanwhile, global banking giant HSBC (HBC) is weighing on Britain's FTSE, which has still managed to make its way to a 0.1% gain. Metals and mining giants Rio Tinto (RTP), Anglo American (AAUK), and BHP Billiton are providing key support. In economic news, UK Times Online reported that Britain's services sector grew at its fastest rate in two years during September. In Asia, stocks traded in rather choppy fashion. Japan's Nikkei ended 0.6% lower as Fanuc LTD and Terumo led losses. Nomura Holdings (NMR) provided some support after it announced that it has determined the issue price and the selling price in relation to the issuance of new shares and a secondary offering of shares. The offering stands at 568 yen per share. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng managed a 0.3% gain. Financials led the way with Bank of China and China Construction Bank providing leadership. HSBC was a laggard, though.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.80. Weakness in the U.S. dollar continues to provide a boon to the stock market. With the greenback down roughly 0.3% against a basket of major foreign currencies, broad stock futures are trading with solid gains ahead of the opening bell. U.S. large-cap banks are showing particular strength. The sector was upgraded by analysts at Goldman Sachs, according to Reuters. Overall news flow is currently slow, but market participants will receive a trading catalyst with the release of the ISM Services Index for September at 10:00 AM ET. Meanwhile, overseas action has been mixed to moderately positive. DJ30 -- NASDAQ -- SP500 --

06:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.00.

06:30 am : Nikkei...9674.49...-57.40...-0.60%. Hang Seng...20429.07...+53.60...+0.30%.

06:30 am : FTSE...4991.07...+2.40...+0.10%. DAX...5478.85...+11.10...+0.20%.

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