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 Post subject: October 2nd Friday 2009 Emini ES ($ES_F) points +22.00
PostPosted: Sat Oct 03, 2009 9:35 am 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=66&t=325

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Great start in October for trading the Emini ES ($ES_F) although I had a few trade losses to close out Friday's trading session even though I stayed above my profit goal for Friday. Best trade of the day occurred as a Long position around 1020am est and worst trade of the day occurred as a Long position around 1019am est as a result of not waiting for trade confirmation. Thus, worst trade of the day was via discipline problem that involved being over-agrressive.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their efforts in trade signals while ignoring the impact on their trading results via market psychology, trader psychology (trading habits/routine and personal lifestyle). If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +22.00 Emini ES ($ES_F) points

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Stocks Slide for Second Week
Wall Street ends with modest losses after a choppy session in which a weaker-than-expected jobs report raises worries about the recovery.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: October 2, 2009: 6:09 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks meandered Friday, at the end of a second straight week of losses, as investors worried that a worse-than-expected jobs report was further evidence that the rally has gotten ahead of the recovery.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU), the S&P 500 (SPX) index and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) all lost a few points.

"The [jobs] report was a disappointment, but a recovery is not going to go in a straight line," said John Wilson, chief technical strategist at Morgan Keegan.

Since the rally highs were hit last week, stocks have lost about 5%. Wilson said stocks may need to ease another 5% lower over the next few weeks, but that a 10% pullback would be sufficient to bring buyers back in to push the market higher.

Stocks got hammered Thursday after weaker-than-expected readings on manufacturing and jobless claims sparked worries about the pace of the economic recovery. The Dow closed down 204 points.

Stocks are also vulnerable to a bit of selling after a strong July through September period in which the Dow and S&P 500 both jumped 15%, their biggest quarterly gains in more than a decade. The Nasdaq gained 15.7%, its best quarterly performance since 2003.

The advance was part of a bigger run up that has propelled the leading indexes for roughly 7 months straight. The advance has been driven by slowly improving economic news and tremendous amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus.

But lately, a number of the reports have been missing expectations, including readings on jobs, manufacturing and consumer confidence earlier this week.

Since bottoming at a 12-year low March 9, the S&P 500 has gained 51.2%, and the Dow has gained 45% as of Friday's close. After hitting a six-year low, the Nasdaq has gained nearly 61%.

Economy: Employers cut 263,000 jobs from their payrolls in September after cutting a revised 201,000 in August, the Labor Department reported Friday morning. Economists were expecting 175,000 jobs cuts, on average, according to Briefing.com.

The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, rose to 9.8%, a 26-year high. That was in line with economists' forecasts and up from the 9.7% rate in August. Most economists expect the national unemployment rate to hit 10% by year end, although in a number of states it is much higher.

A separate government report showed that factory orders plunged in August versus forecasts for a rise. The Commerce Department said factory orders fell 0.8% versus forecasts for a flat reading. Factory orders rose 1.4% in the previous month.

Company news: Troubled lender CIT (CIT, Fortune 500) launched a debt-exchange plan as part of its efforts to restructure and avoid bankruptcy. But the company said if the plan is not successful, it will likely file for Chapter 11 protection.

Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) shares gained after both Morgan Stanley and UBS issued bullish notes on the company's forecast.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners two to one on volume of 1.4 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers two to one on volume of 2.47 million shares.

World markets: Global markets tumbled. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 lost 1.2%, France's CAC 40 lost 1.9% and Germany's DAX lost 1.5%. Asian markets declined as well, with the Japanese Nikkei losing 2.5%.

Currency and commodities: The dollar tumbled versus the euro and the yen, resuming its recent plunge against a basket of currencies.

U.S. light crude oil for October delivery fell 87 cents to settle at $69.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for December delivery rose $3.60 to settle at $1,004.30 an ounce. Gold closed at a record high of $1,020.20 two weeks ago.

Bonds: Treasury prices tiptoed higher, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.21% from 3.18% late Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Technical support and a retreating dollar helped stocks bounce back after falling sharply in response to a disappointing jobs report, but there simply weren't enough buyers to drive stocks to a sustainable gain. In turn, stocks logged their fourth straight loss, which left the stock market down 1.8% for the week.

News that private employers slashed 263,000 jobs from payrolls during September struck stocks with weakness. Economists, on average, had expected job losses to total just 175,000. The worse-than-expected jobs number caused the unemployment rate to increase to 9.8% from 9.7%, but that was expected.

News that factory orders for August made a surprise 0.8% drop didn't help the early tone.

Market watchers were initially struck by the concerted selling effort that followed the disappointing data, since it contrasted the willingness of participants during recent weeks to shrug off worse-than-expected data. However, stocks were quick to show their resilience to the morning selling effort by bouncing back to the unchanged mark after coming in contact with the S&P 500's 50-day moving average, near 1020.

Stocks were also helped off of their lows by a retreating U.S. dollar. The greenback surrendered an early gain and settled with a 0.2% loss.

Stocks struggled to break above the flat line, however. That invoked some more modest selling pressure late in the session.

Financials had provided some support to the broader market, but faltered into the close. The sector was down as much as 2.1% and up as much as 1.1%, but finished with a loss of 0.1%. In turn, only the consumer discretionary sector settled in positive territory; it advanced 0.6%.

Trading volume was strong. Roughly 1.4 billion shares exchanged hands on the NYSE. That marks the third straight session that trading volume has eclipsed the 50-day moving average.DJ30 -21.61 NASDAQ -9.37 NQ100 -0.2% R2K -0.6% SP400 -1.0% SP500 -4.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 943/2.47 bln/1720 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 986/1.40 bln/2018

3:35 pm : Selling pressure on the dollar boosted commodity prices early in the session. The increase in commodity prices was moderated, however, as the dollar slowly recovered for the rest of the session. The dollar index is currently down just 0.2%.

Both precious metals saw substantial gains off session lows as the dollar fell. This allowed December gold futures to break through the $1000 per ounce level. They traded in positive territory for the rest of the session and closed at $1004.30 per ounce, up 0.4%. December silver futures on the other hand, rose off the dollar weakness only to hit resistance at the $16.50 per ounce level. They trended slightly lower for the rest of the session and closed down 1.3% at $16.23 per ounce.

Natural gas futures saw a volatile swing in price again this session. After trading as low as $4.35 per contract in the overnight trade, the November contract rose for the rest of the session. They closed up 5.6% at $4.71 per contract.

The aforementioned weakness in the dollar pulled November crude oil futures off a session low set right after the open of the pit trade at $68.32 per barrel. After pulling back from above the $70 level, they found support at the $69 level and closed at $69.83 per barrel, down 1.4%.DJ30 -11.41 NASDAQ -4.87 SP500 -3.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1044/2.03 bln/1611 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1013/1.04 bln/1967

3:00 pm : The major indices remain range bound as they head into the final hour of trade. Stocks are currently facing a weekly loss of roughly 1.5%. That would mark the second straight weekly decline for the stock market. Back-to-back weekly losses haven't hit the stock market since early July. The stock market actually logged four straight weekly losses at that time.

Trading volume this session has been respectable. Though volume on the NYSE has yet to break 1 billion shares, the session's pace remains healthy.DJ30 +4.84 NASDAQ +0.33 SP500 -2.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1165/1.87 bln/1468 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1153/958 mln/1808

2:30 pm : Though the headline indices continue to trade sideways in a narrow range along the neutral line, the Nasdaq 100 has managed to muster a 0.3% gain. Its relative strength comes amid support from large-cap tech issues like Intel (INTC 19.12, +0.22) and Apple (APPL 185.54, +4.68). Shares of AAPL were actually upgraded by analysts at UBS.

Meanwhile, mid-cap stocks continue to trade with weakness. As such, the S&P 400 is off by 0.4%. Life Time Fitness (LTM 25.81, -1.47) is a primary laggard among mid-cap issues.

The Russell 2000 has managed to make its way to a 0.1% gain amid leadership from Pervasive Software (PVSW 5.53, +0.77).DJ30 -10.125 NASDAQ -2.21 SP500 -2.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1104/1.67 bln/1515 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1081/854 mln/1896

2:00 pm : Stocks continue to gyrate along the neutral line. This afternoon's action comes in stark contrast to the concerted selling effort that was being waged in the early going, when participants reacted negatively to news that private payrolls fell more than expected during September. Still, stocks have struggled to put together an actual advance.DJ30 +6.65 NASDAQ +1.63 SP500 -0.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1150/1.65 bln/1463 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1187/843 mln/1792

1:30 pm : The Dow and the Nasdaq have both poked back into positive territory. The S&P 500 also made its way back into the green, but it has since returned to the red.

Financials continue to provide a boon for the market. The sector is now up 0.9% as it outperforms every other major sector.

Amid the stock market's upward move, Treasuries continue to turn lower. The benchmark 10-year Note is now down 10 ticks after it was up solidly in early action.DJ30 +7.86 NASDAQ +1.48 SP500 -0.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1163/1.54 bln/1419 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1149/789 mln/1793

1:05 pm : An ugly September jobs report caused stocks to slump in the first few minutes of trade, but technical support and a rebound by financial stocks has helped the broader market limit its losses.

News that nonfarm payrolls fell a steeper-than-expected 263,000 during September positioned stocks to start the session sharply lower and extend the previous session's slide. The negative response to the data contrasts with the action of participants during recent weeks, when negative data was often dismissed on the premise that economic conditions are improving and positive reports are in the offing. News that factory orders for August made surprise 0.8% drop didn't help matters.

However, stocks were able to stop their slide when the S&P 500 came in contact with its 50-day moving average, near 1020, which has since acted as a line of support. The stock market last hit its 50-day moving average in mid-July.

Stocks were also helped off of their lows by a retreating U.S. dollar. The greenback had traded with moderate gains in the early going, but it is now trading with a 0.3% loss against a basket of major foreign currencies. A stronger dollar had weighed on stocks during the previous session.

Despite a couple sources of support, the broader market managed only to poke into positive territory for just a moment. It has since chopped along in negative territory.

Financials have shown relative strength and, in turn, helped to limit the losses of the broader market. Financials had been down more than 1.5% in the early going, but the sector is now sporting a 0.4% gain. Insurers have underpinned the financial sector's turnabout; multiline insurers were down nearly 5% in the first few minutes of trade, but they are now up 0.5%.

Despite the dour start to the session, stocks have done an impressive job of limiting their losses. This may be indicative of underlying support from market participants looking for the recent pullbacks to be short-lived.

Advancing Sectors: Financials +0.4%, Consumer Staples +0.5%
Declining Sectors: Industrials -1.0%, Utilities -0.7%, Consumer Discretionary -0.7%, Energy -0.4%, Materials -0.3%, Health Care -0.2%, Telecom -0.2%, Tech -0.1%DJ30 -7.03 NASDAQ -0.31 SP500 -1.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1115/1.45 bln/1478 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1040/750 mln/1908

12:30 pm : Airline stocks are trading with impressive gains in the face of this session's selling effort. The relative strength of airline stocks has the Amex Airline Index up 2.9%.

Even UAL Corp (UAUA 7.30, +0.06) has made its way to a gain after starting the session with a sizable loss. The company priced a 19 million share common stock offering at $7.24 per share.

In other corporate news, Accenture (ACN 37.90) posted in-line earnings for its latest quarter, but issued downside revenue guidance. The stock is still trading higher, though, thanks largely to news from Dow Jones that analysts at Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock.

Immucor (BLUD 17.51, -0.09) also posted its latest earnings results, which were better than expected. The company went on to issue an in-line earnings outlook.DJ30 -4.15 NASDAQ -1.13 SP500 -1.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 990/1.33 bln/1593 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1010/683 mln/1923

12:00 pm : All three major U.S. equity averages continue to chop along in negative territory. The Dow and S&P 500 are currently on track for a weekly loss of 1.8%, while Nasdaq Composite has shed 1.9% this week.

Trade was even more downbeat overseas. In Europe, Germany's DAX dropped 2.0%, while France's CAC fell 2.4% and Britain's FTSE shed 1.8%. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei dropped 5.2% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng sank 3.1%.

The Dow Jones World Index is currently down 1.3% and facing a weekly loss of 2.3%.DJ30 -31.13 NASDAQ -8.89 SP500 -5.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 828/1.19 bln/1716 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 716/613 mln/2200

11:30 am : Stocks remain in the red, but losses have steadied with the S&P 500 trading near the 1025 level, which marks an intraday support level. That has allowed stocks to limit their losses.

Treasuries are now trading with weakness. The benchmark 10-year Note had been up with solid gains in the early going, but it is now down 5 ticks. That has put the yield on the 10-year Note back to 3.20%.DJ30 -12.77 NASDAQ -5.21 SP500 -3.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 863/1.06 bln/1312 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 829/546 mln/2065

11:00 am : Despite starting the session with sizable losses and falling to a fresh three-week low in early action, stocks recently made their way to positive ground. The trip into the green was short-lived, though, as stocks have retreated back into the red.

Financials were a primary leader in the recent upturn. The sector had been down more than 1.5% earlier this morning, but it has since swung to a gain of 0.1%. Consumer staples stocks (+0.2%) make up the only other major sector to trade with a gain.DJ30 -23.35 NASDAQ -4.24 SP500 -3.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 801/908 mln/1687 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 754/478 mln/2126

10:30 am : After opening sharply lower, equity markets have recovered the majority of its losses. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index had a big impact on the commodity complex in recent activity. After moving to highs this morning, the index fell sharply into negative territory and to fresh lows, which caused most commodities to spike off of morning lows.

October crude oil traded lower overnight and just before the open of pit trading crude began to fall sharply and ultimately hit lows of $68.32 per barrel a few minutes after the open. Crude rebounded on the decline in the dollar, which pushed crude ~$2 per barrel higher. However, crude could not break into positive territory and is currently 1.1% lower at $70.06 per barrel.

October natural gas traded around the unchanged line overnight and also began to see weakness due to the decline in the dollar this morning. Natural gas hit lows of $4.351 per MMBtu minutes before the open of pit trading, but quickly reversed and spiked to fresh highs of $4.678 per MMBtu. Currently, natural gas is trading 4.2% higher at $4.655 per MMBtu.

December gold and December silver hit lows this morning of $987.00 per ounce and $15.920 per ounce, respectively. Off lows, gold spiked into positive territory and is currently 0.6% higher at $1007.10 per ounce, while silver is trading right near the unchanged line at $16.435 per ounce.DJ30 -20.86 NASDAQ +2.77 SP500 -1.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 307.8/695.6 mln/373.2 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 107.7/365.6 mln/255.2

10:00 am : Amid this morning's broad-based selling effort stocks were able to find technical support as the S&P 500 fell to 1020, which marks the 50-day moving average for the benchmark index. The stock market hasn't come in contact with its 50-day moving average since mid-July.

Holding the line enabled stocks to pare some of their losses, but recent news that factory orders for August fell 0.8% has caused renewed selling pressure. The consensus estimate had called for a flat reading.

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Staples (+0.2%), Telecom (fractional gain), Health Care (fractional gain)
Declining Sectors: Industrials (-1.2%), Financials (-0.9%), Utilities (-0.9%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.9%), Energy (-0.3%), Materials (-0.3%), Tech (-0.1%)DJ30 -67.26 NASDAQ -10.06 SP500 -7.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 554/443 mln/1825 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 352/239 mln/2409

09:45 am : All 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 are trading with losses, though consumer staples stocks are only down fractionally. The sector's resistance to this morning's broad-based selling effort comes amid strength in PepsiCo (PEP 59.65, +1.19), which had its target price raised by analysts at Deutsche Bank.

Meanwhile, industrial stocks are trading with the worst loss of any major sector. As a group, industrial stocks are down 1.7%. All 58 of the sector's members are in the red.

Financials aren't faring much better, though. The sector is down 1.6% amid considerable weakness in multiline insurers (-4.7%).DJ30 -67.41 NASDAQ -10.94 SP500 -8.77 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 497/264 mln/1794 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 281/160 mln/2403

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -10.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.00. Stock futures indicate that the S&P 500 will extend considerably the previous session's 2.6% drop. The selling effort comes amid an ugly September nonfarm payrolls report, which featured a larger-than-expected job loss tally and a headline unemployment rate of 9.8%. The willingness of market participants to turn against stocks in the presence of weaker-than-expected data contrasts the disposition of participants during recent weeks, when many were quick to dismiss disappointments. However, lingering concerns about the speed at which positive reports will arrive has some starting to trade more cautiously. Participants get another dose of data with August factory orders at 10:00 AM ET.DJ30 * NASDAQ * SP500 *

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -13.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.10. Europe's major indices are making their way toward their fourth straight loss and their second straight weekly loss. The weakness comes amid news that Europe's economic recovery may lag that of other regions since European economies are less flexible, according to the International Monetary Fund. In a separate report, Eurozone industrial producer prices showed a 0.4% increase for August, but they remain down 7.5% from the year before. A disappointing U.S. jobs report has only exacerbated weakness. Of the major European bourses, France's CAC is currently trading with the steepest loss. It is down 2.1%. GDF Suez is the only company listed in the 40-member index to trade with a gain. Primary losers include financial outfits BNP Paribas, AXA (AXA), and Societe Generale. Losses are also broad-based in Britain, where the FTSE is off by 1.5%. Rio Tinto (RTP) and Xstrata (XTA) are among the primary laggards. According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.K. Takeover Panel ruled Friday that Xstrata must formalize its offer for rival Anglo American (AAUK) by October 20, or walk away from the deal. If it doesn't make an offer, Xstrata won't be able to approach Anglo-American again for six months, according to the article. Meanwhile, Germany's DAX is down 1.6%. Muenchener Rue and Volkswagen are the only two stocks listed in the 30-member index to trade with gains. In contrast, Deutsche Bank (DB) is a primary laggard. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 2.1% and Japan's Nikkei fell 2.5% to a two- month closing low. Toyota Motor (TM) retreated after reporting that its U.S. sales slumped 13% last month. Honda Motor (HMC) had a 20% drop in U.S. sales. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng dropped 2.8% after being closed in the previous session. Banks led losses as HSBC (HBC), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and China Construction Bank fell. Meanwhile, mainland China's Shanghai Composite remains closed for holiday observance.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.80. Stock futures have dropped sharply in the wake of the latest jobs report. According to official government statistics, nonfarm payrolls fell by 263,000 during September. They were expected to drop 175,000. Job losses for August were revised upward to 201,000. Given the latest job loss tally and the revisions for August, the unemployment rate now stands at 9.8%, as expected. The unemployment rate stood at 9.7% in August. Average hourly earnings were up 0.1% month-over-month, but that is a bit below the 0.2% increase that was expected and down from the previous month's upwardly revised 0.4% increase. Average weekly hours worked slipped to 33.0 from 33.1. The consensus called for average weekly hours to remain steady at 33.1.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.80. Stock futures are trading modestly lower after the stock market logged in the previous session its worst loss since July. The broad-based weakness comes as buyers step to the sidelines ahead of the September nonfarm payrolls report, which is due at the bottom of the hour. Factory orders for August follow at 10:00 AM ET. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is making moderate gains this morning. The dollar was propped up, in part, during the previous session by encouraging comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke. Today, Reuters reported that Treasury Secretary Geithner expressed that a strong dollar is very important to the United States and the rest of the world needs to be convinced Americans will be more thrifty in future. The comments come in the face of ongoing concern regarding the dollar's role as a global reserve currency amid the spendthrift culture of the U.S.

06:21 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.50.

06:21 am : Nikkei...9731.87...-246.80...-2.50%. Hang Seng...20375.49...-579.80...-2.80%.

06:21 am : FTSE...4999.81...-48.00...-1.00%. DAX...5520.11...-34.30...-0.60%.

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