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 Post subject: October 1st Thursday 2009 Emini ES ($ES_F) points +18.50
PostPosted: Thu Oct 01, 2009 3:46 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=66&t=319

Quote:
Good start to the new trading month although it feels like I'm not as focus as I should be in my trading. Best trade of the day was a Long position around 1035am est that netted +1.75 points per contract.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their efforts in trade signals while ignoring the impact on their trading results via market psychology, trader psychology (trading habits/routine and personal lifestyle). If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +18.50 Emini ES ($ES_F) points

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Dow Plunges 200 Points
Wall Street stages a sharp retreat after labor market and manufacturing reports raise worries about the strength of the recovery. Bank stocks plunge..
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: October 1, 2009: 4:07 PM ET

NEW YORK�(CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks tumbled Thursday after a bigger-than-expected rise in weekly jobless claims and a weaker-than-expected reading on manufacturing sparked worries about the pace of the economic recovery.

Many of the stocks and sectors that fueled massive third-quarter gains also drove the selloff on Thursday, the first day of the fourth quarter.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 205 points, or 2.1%, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 (SPX) index lost 27 points, or 2.6%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) shed 65 points, or 3%.

Dow components JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and American Express (AXP, Fortune 500) were among the financial shares sliding on the day, dragging down the KBW Bank (BKX) index by 4.6%. Yet financials were the biggest gainers in the third quarter, with the sector as a whole spiking 25% and the KBW index rising 29.5%.

Industrials and materials gained more than 20% each in the July-through-September period, and both those sectors tumbled too.

But declines were broad-based, with 28 of 30 Dow stocks falling, including Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500), IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) and Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500).

Stocks are coming off the best quarter in more than a decade, leaving markets vulnerable to a little selling, particularly amid the recent spate of weaker-than-expected economic reports.

"We're getting a sense that while things have bottomed, we are not getting a significant snap back," said Haag Sherman, managing director at Salient Partners. "We're going through a process where corporate profits will be robust, but the economic recovery will be spotty."

Worse-than-expected reports on the labor market, consumer confidence and Midwest manufacturing have caused stocks to slide in five of the last six sessions. But the modest selloff barely dented an otherwise robust third quarter.

The Dow and S&P 500 both gained 15% in the July-through-September period, seeing the biggest quarterly gains since the fourth quarter of 1998. The Nasdaq rose 15.7% and saw its best quarterly gains since the second quarter of 2003.

But stocks have been vulnerable recently after the massive rally that has essentially propelled the major indexes for seven months straight, with only a brief retreat in late June and early July.

Since bottoming at a 12-year low March 9, the S&P 500 has gained 56%, and the Dow has gained around 48% as of Wednesday's close. After hitting a six-year low, the Nasdaq has gained nearly 64%.

But calls for a big September selloff never materialized, with any selling pretty minimal. Analysts say that there are still enough supportive factors in play to keep stocks flat to higher through year end. Supports include improving corporate profits, a slowly stabilizing economy and a still-considerable amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus.

Economy: The Institute for Supply Management's September ISM index fell to 52.6 from 52.9 in August. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought it would rise to 54.

Also on the downside, weekly jobless claims jumped more than expected last week. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment increased to 551,000 from 534,000 the previous week. Economists thought it would rise to 535,000.

On the upside, the index of pending home sales surged 6.4% in August versus forecasts for a rise of 1%. The index, from the National Association of Realtors, increased 3.2% in the previous month.

Personal income and spending both gained more than had been anticipated in August, according to a Commerce Department report released Thursday. Personal income increased 0.2% after rising 0.2% in the previous month. Economists thought it would edge up 0.1%. Spending jumped 1.3% after rising 0.3% in the previous month. Economists thought it would gain 1.1%.

Another government report showed construction spending edged up 0.8% in August after falling 1.1% in July. Economists thought it would fall 0.1%.

Bernanke: Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke is testifying at a House Financial Services hearing on the central bank's perspective on proposed reforms to the financial regulatory system.

Bernanke backed most of Obama's plan for overhauling the regulatory system, with the exception of a consumer agency.

Companies: Comcast (CMCSA, Fortune 500) has disputed reports that it is in talks to buy part of General Electric (GE, Fortune 500)'s NBC Universal. Comcast shares slumped 7%, while GE shares fell 2%.

Cisco (CSCO, Fortune 500) said it is buying Norway's Tandberg ASA, a video conferencing hardware maker, for $3 billion in cash. Cisco shares dropped 1.5%.

Late Wednesday, Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) said that CEO and president Ken Lewis is retiring Dec. 31 after 40 years with the company. BofA did not name a successor. Some analysts say Lewis's departure only heightens concerns surrounding the firm. BofA shares were barely lower.

Also late Wednesday, General Motors said it is shutting down its Saturn division after a deal to sell it to Penske Automotive Group (PAG, Fortune 500) fell apart.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners by more than four to one on volume of 570 million shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers four to one on volume of 1.24 billion shares.

Autos: Automakers were reporting September sales throughout the day. Sales were hit by the end of the government's Cash for Clunkers program and diminished inventories.

The best performer in the month was Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500), which said sales fell 5% from a year earlier. The company was expected to report a 10% year-over-year sales drop.

Rival GM said sales fell 45% from a year ago, versus forecasts for a drop of 46%. Toyota, the biggest beneficiary of the Clunkers program, posted a worse-than-expected loss of 13% versus a year ago.

World markets: Global markets tumbled. In Europe, London's FTSE 100, France's CAC 40 and Germany's DAX all slipped in afternoon trading. Asian markets ended lower.

Currency and commodities: The dollar gained versus the euro and fell against the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for October delivery rose 21 cents to $70.82 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange as investors weighed supply and demand fundamentals.

COMEX gold for December delivery fell $8.60 to settle at $1,000.70 an ounce. Gold closed at a record high of $1,020.20 two weeks ago.

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.20% from 3.30% late Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Image

Yahoo! Finance

3:30 pm : Fed Chairman Bernanke lent support to the U.S. dollar this session by stating that it is at no immediate risk. The Dollar Index is holding strong to its gains and is currently up 0.6%.

Despite the greenback's gains, oil prices managed to eke out a fractional gain to settle the session at $70.73 per barrel.

Natural gas prices plummeted, though. Contracts for the commodity closed with prices down 7.6% at $4.47 each. Prices were also weighed down by another bearish weekly inventory report.

Precious metals fared poorly, too. Gold prices dropped 0.8% to settle at $1006.70 per ounce, while silver settled at $16.44 per ounce, down 1.3%.

General weakness among commodities has dragged the CRB Commodity Index down 1.5%. The sharp decline comes after the CRB logged its best percentage gain in nearly two months during the previous session, when it spiked nearly 3%.DJ30 -152.74 NASDAQ -53.06 SP500 -21.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 498/2.19 bln/2181 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 533/1.04 bln/2475

3:00 pm : Stocks are moving sideways just a few points above session lows as they enter the final hour of trading.

Trading volume has been solid this session, though it isn't quite as high as it was in the previous session when investors and portfolio managers were engaged in end-of-quarter window dressing and portfolio rebalancing.DJ30 -145.64 NASDAQ -21.12 SP500 -20.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 523/1.99 bln/2138 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 550/941 mln/2457

2:30 pm : Stocks have made their way up from session lows, but weakness remains widespread.

Consumer staples stocks, though down, are holding up against this session's selling better than any other sector. Consumer staples stocks are down a relatively tame 0.7% amid support from Constellation Brands (STZ 16.00, +0.85), which posted this morning better-than-expected quarterly earnings.DJ30 -131.58 NASDAQ -47.78 SP500 -18.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 543/1.85 bln/2105 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 556/867 mln/2436

2:00 pm : Automakers are out this session with their latest monthly sales results. According to Reuters, General Motors said its sales for September were down 45% from a year earlier. Meanwhile, Ford (F 7.03, -0.18) said that its September sales were down 5.1%. Alan Mullaly, Ford CEO, affirmed in a separate statement his commitment to put Ford back in the black by 2011.

The results from the pair haven't done anything to provide support for automakers in the presence of broader market weakness. In turn, automakers, as a group, are down 2.6%. DJ30 -151.08 NASDAQ -52.76 SP500 -20.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 493/1.70 bln/2138 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 526/794 mln/2465

1:30 pm : Stocks have descended to fresh session lows. Nearly 95% of the companies listed in the S&P 500 are in the red, while all 30 of the Dow components are showing losses. Travelers (TRV 49.20, -0.03) had been the only blue chip to sport a gain during the last few minutes, but it recently slipped into negative ground.DJ30 -164.23 NASDAQ -56.10 SP500 -21.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 490/1.57 bln/2129 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 509/732 mln/2455

1:00 pm : Stocks have fallen sharply to two week lows. There isn't any particular item to account for the weakness, rather stocks have been hampered by a series of headlines and developments.

The stock market's failed attempt to rally in the previous session gave way to a lackluster finish, which carried over into this morning's trade. Stocks failed to find support from overseas participants, who were unresponsive to news that the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for 2010 global economic growth to 3.1% from 2.5%.

This morning's deluge of data also did little to drive buyers into the fold. Jobless claims continue to come in at discomforting levels. Most recently, weekly initial claims hit 551,000, while continuing claims retreated to 6.09 million as jobless benefits expire. The ugly claims numbers and the disappointing ADP report from the previous session are factoring into the minds of participants ahead of the government's official nonfarm payrolls report, which is due tomorrow.

Personal income and spending for August were up and slightly better than expected. Core personal consumption was up a mere 0.1%, as expected.

Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing Index for September came below expectations, but at 52.6 it still indicated growth.

Construction spending during August made a surprise 0.8% increase and pending home sales for August made a surprisingly strong 6.4% monthly increase.

Fed Chairman Bernanke spoke before the House Committee on Financial Services this morning, but his prepared remarks did not address monetary policy or economic conditions. However, Bernanke did state that there is no immediate risk to the U.S. dollar, which has had its role as the primary global reserve currency questioned recently by foreign officials.

Bernanke's comments have helped advance the Dollar Index 0.5%. Consequently, the greenback's gain is only hampering stocks further. Though a stronger dollar certainly has implications for multinationals that convert foreign sales into dollars, it is weighing most heavily on materials stocks and commodities.

Materials stocks are down 2.7%, more than any other sector, while the CRB Commodity Index surrenders 1.4% after it logged a gain of nearly 3% in the previous session.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Materials -2.7%, Financials -2.3%, Consumer Discretionary -2.2%, Tech -2.1%, Industrials -1.9%, Energy -1.9%, Telecom -1.6%, Utilities -1.1%, Health Care -1.1%, Consumer Staples -0.9%DJ30 -141.03 NASDAQ -49.24 SP500 -18.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 561/1.41 bln/2045 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 577/625 mln/2384

12:30 pm : The major indices have managed to ease off of their session lows. Losses remain considerable, though.

Of the major indices, weakness is especially pronounced in the Nasdaq. Its relatively outsized decline comes as large-cap tech outfits like Microsoft (MSFT 24.95, -0.77), Oracle (ORCL 20.25, -0.59), and Qualcomm (QCOM 43.50, -1.48) feel the brunt of selling. Weakness among large-cap tech issues has also dragged the Nasdaq 100 to a 2.2% loss.DJ30 -131.58 NASDAQ -46.96 SP500 -17.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 561/1.28 bln/2016 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 562/596 mln/2380

12:00 pm : The U.S. dollar remains one of the few bright spots this session, but its strength has made for added weakness in the stock market.

The 0.5% gain by the Dollar Index comes amid comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke that there is no immediate risk to the dollar. The remarks follow comments from foreign officials that have called to replace the greenback as the primary global reserve currency.

With the dollar up this session, dollar-sensitive assets like commodities and basic materials stocks have been pressured. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index is off by 1.2% and materials stocks are down 2.8%, more than any other major sector.

A stronger dollar also has implications for multinational companies that return foreign profits back to the U.S. at a less favorable conversion rate.DJ30 -141.33 NASDAQ -49.70 SP500 -19.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 552/1.17 bln/1995 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 537/536 mln/2386

11:30 am : The S&P 500 has extended its morning downturn so that it now trades below the 1040 level, which means it is now at its lowest level in two weeks.

There isn't any particular stock or broader sector to account for this session's widespread weakness. Rather, losses have been broad-based for the entire session.

All 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 are in the red. Each is trading with a loss of at least 1%. Half of them are down 2% or more.DJ30 -149.94 NASDAQ -49.48 SP500 -19.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 574/972 mln/1941 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 536/449 mln/2353

11:00 am : The major stock indices are chopping along near session lows as losses abound. Weakness among stocks continues to prop up Treasuries.

The dour mood among equity investors this session comes amid a mixed bundle of economic data, but few meaningful corporate headlines. One corporate headline of interest, though, is word that Bank of America (BAC 16.82, -0.10) CEO Ken Lewis is retiring from the bank. Oddly, Bank of America has yet to name a successor.DJ30 -104.38 NASDAQ -34.15 SP500 -12.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 637/764 mln/1818 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 648/352 mln/2204

10:35 am : October crude oil traded modestly lower overnight and hit lows of $69.61 just ahead of the open of pit trading. After hitting lows, crude quickly rose into positive territory and to morning highs of $71.39 per barrel. Crude has since pulled back and is trading five cents higher at $70.66 per barrel.

October natural gas traded modestly lower along with crude overnight, but began to fall sharply until hitting session lows just after the open of pit trading. Ahead of inventory data, natural gas was trading 4.7% lower at $4.612 per MMBtu. Following the data, which showed a build of 64 bcf vs. consensus of a build of 62 bcf, natural gas hit fresh lows at $4.50 and is currently 6.3% lower at $4.538.

The US Dollar Index remains higher, which is keeping some pressure on precious metals this morning. December gold is trading 0.6% lower at $1003.60 per ounce and December silver is trading 0.2% lower at $16.625 per ounce.DJ30 -110.12 NASDAQ -33.31 SP500 -13.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 582/602.8 mln/1833 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 632/274.4 mln/2172

10:05 am : Stocks have extended their morning decline amid a flurry of economic reports.

The ISM Manufacturing Index for September came in at 52.6. That is below the consensus estimate of 54.0 and below the August reading of 52.9. The ISM Prices Paid Index came in at 63.5, which is below the reading of 66.0 that was widely expected and down from the August reading of 65.0.

Construction spending during August increased 0.8%. It was expected to retreat 0.1% after initially showing a 0.2% decline in July. However, the July data was revised to show a 1.1% decline.

Meanwhile, pending home sales for August made a monthly increase of 6.4%, which is stronger than the 1.0% increase that was widely expected and up from the 3.2% monthly increase that was posted in July. Year-over-year, pending home sales were up 12.1%, which followed a 12.9% yearly increase in July.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Financials -1.5%, Materials -1.2%, Technology -1.2%, Energy -1.2%, Industrials -1.1%, Consumer Discretionary -1.1%, Telecom -0.8%, Health Care -0.6%, Utilities -0.6%, Consumer Staples -0.6%

Early movers: Trading up -- CHTP +28.3%, HOKU +16.2%, LIWA +8.7%, XRTX +8.6%, UFS +6.6%, CLP +5.9%, LWSN +5.8%, TER +5.5%; Trading down -- RVSN -31%, CRAI -21%, ASTI -13.3%, ROC -11.9%, PAG -10.3%, LLNW -9.4%, UAUA -8.7%, ASTC -8.5%, ABAT -6.7%DJ30 -118.50 NASDAQ -29.84 SP500 -12.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 621/393 mln/1740 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 607/196 mln/2157

09:45 am : Broad-based weakness has led stocks to considerable losses in the first few minutes of action. Declines are sharpest among consumer discretionary stocks and materials stocks -- both sectors are down 1.1%.

The stock market's early loss has helped prop up interest in Treasuries. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is up 16 ticks, which has sent its yield to fresh multimonth lows below 3.25%.

Fed Chairman Bernanke's testimony to the House Committee on Financial Services is underway. His prepared remarks addressed neither monetary policy nor economic conditions.

Several economic reports are due at the top of the hour. Look for the September ISM Manufacturing Index, construction spending data for August, and August pending home sales. DJ30 -62.88 NASDAQ -18.43 SP500 -8.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 670/151 mln/1522 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 640/95 mln/1991

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.30. Stock futures suggest a lower start is in order for the major equity averages. The tone has steadily been dour this morning, reflecting the previous session's close and the action in overseas markets. The latest dose of data has done little to alter the mood among premarket participants. The latest initial jobless claims report proved disappointing once again as claims totals exceeded expectations by coming in at 551,000. Continuing claims were down to 6.09 million, which is below what had been expected, but that is largely the result of expiring jobless benefits. Personal income and spending for August proved better than expected, but participants still have an eye on the September ISM Manufacturing Index (10:00 AM ET), construction spending data for August (10:00 AM ET), and pending home sales for August (10:00 AM ET). Fed Chairman Bernanke is also scheduled to speak today (9:00 AM ET) and vehicle sales for September should be released throughout the day. Tabs are also being kept on the U.S. dollar, which has surrendered some of its early morning gains so that the Dollar Index now trades with a 0.4% gain. That has helped crude oil futures move into positive territory to sport a 0.7% gain at $71.10 per barrel. Gold prices remain in the red, but they are now down 0.2% at $1005.60 per ounce after trading near $1002 per ounce earlier.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.30. Europe's major bourses are currently down and headed for their third straight loss, unable to gain despite the IMF's increased forecast for worldwide economic growth in 2010. In Germany, the DAX is off by 0.3% as its declining issues outnumber its advancers by more than 2-to-1. Siemens (SI) is a primary laggard in the lot. In economic news, AFP reported that German retail sales for August fell 1.5% month-over-month. An increase of 0.1% had been expected, following a rise of 0.7% in July, according to the report. In France, the CAC is off by 0.5% as energy giant Total (TOT) weighs on trade. Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) is providing support, though. The company has bought French biotechnology company Fovea and expanded a licensing deal with Merrimack Pharmaceuticals. Meanwhile, Britain's FTSE is off by 0.5%. Natural resource players and banks are showing the most weakness. That has HSBC (HBC) and Barclays (BCS) trading as primary laggards. According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.K.'s Treasury announced that Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds Banking Group (LYG), Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), and Standard Chartered will comply with measures such as bonus clawbacks. In broader news, AFP reported that Eurozone unemployment climbed to 9.6% in August from 9.5% in July. Meanwhile, Dow Jones reported that the Eurozone's Purchasing Managers' Index hit a 16-month high of 49.3 in September. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index shed 1.2%. Markets in Hong Kong and China were closed for holiday observance, but Japan's Nikkei was open. It fell 1.5% as exporters were hurt by a stronger yen. Banking shares remained under pressure in the wake of comments regarding a moratorium on the repayment of the principal on mortgages and bank loans.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.30. Stock futures continue to trade with relative weakness after the release of several widely-watched economic reports. Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 26 totaled 551,000, which is more than the 535,000 claims that were widely expected and is up from the previous weekly initial claims total of 534,000. Continuing claims fell 70,000 to 6.09 million, which is below the 6.17 million continuing claims that were widely expected. Meanwhile, personal income for August increased 0.2%, which is a bit better than the 0.1% increase that had been widely expected. Income for July was revised higher to show a 0.2% increase. Spending was up 1.3% in August. It was expected to increase 1.1% after a 0.3% increase in July. Core personal consumption expenditures for August increased 0.1% month-over-month, as expected. Core PCE had also made a 0.1% monthly increase in July.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.50. Stock futures are trading with relative weakness, mirroring the action seen in overseas markets. The major global indices appear unfased by news that the International Monetary Fund forecast that the world economy would expand 3.1% next year. That's up from its July prediction, which called for 2.5% growth. The U.S. dollar is showing strength in early morning trade, though. The greenback's rebound has caused commodities to hand back some of the rich gains that they netted in the previous session. There's plenty of economic data out for market participants this morning, starting with personal income and spending data for August (8:30 AM ET) and jobless claims (8:30 AM ET). ISM Manufacturing data for September (10:00 AM ET) follows, along with construction spending for August and pending home sales for August (10:00 AM ET). Vehicle sales data for September is also expected today, and Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks at 9:00 AM ET.

06:40 am : Nikkei...9978.64...-154.60...-1.50%. Hang Seng...Closed for holiday

06:38 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.80.

06:38 am : FTSE...5108.67...-25.40...-0.50%. DAX...5655.68...-19.50...-0.30%.

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