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 Post subject: September 29th Tuesday 2009 Emini ES ($ES_F) points +10.50
PostPosted: Tue Sep 29, 2009 7:13 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=317

Quote:
Took it easy today because I'm still recovering from yesterday's uncontrollable coughts. Didn't do too much trading today and spent most of the day resting and watching TV. Best trade of the day was a short position around 1046am est via VTR bonus trade signal in combo with WRB Analysis tutorial chapter 12.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their efforts in trade signals while ignoring the impact on their trading results via market psychology, trader psychology (trading habits/routine and personal lifestyle). If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +10.50 Emini ES ($ES_F) points

------------------------------



Stocks slip after confidence drops
Improved housing report and weaker consumer confidence index raise more questions about the strength of a recovery on anniversary of the Dow's biggest one-day point loss ever.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: September 29, 2009: 6:15 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks slipped Tuesday after a surprise drop in consumer confidence countered a better-than-expected housing market report. That added to lingering questions about the strength of an economic recovery.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 47 points, or 0.5%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index lost 2 points, or 0.2%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 2 points, or 0.2%.

Stocks churned in the early going, before turning lower after the 10 a.m. ET release of the consumer confidence report. By afternoon, stocks were volatile, bouncing across the unchanged line.

"Many people believe that you still need to see the consumer come back for the recovery to be sustainable," said Ron Kiddoo, chief investment officer at Cozad Asset Management. "If consumers aren't confident, they're not going to spend."

After sliding last week, stocks bounced back Monday as investors welcomed multi-billion dollar merger news involving Abbott Labs (ABT, Fortune 500) and Xerox (XRX, Fortune 500).

But the advance was short lived, with investors again showing caution after a seven-month rally that has left the leading indexes at nearly one-year highs.

"We continue to wait for the market to slow down," said Scott Armiger, portfolio manager at Christiana Bank & Trust.

Since bottoming at a 12-year low March 9, the S&P 500 has gained just shy of 57% and the Dow has gained around 49%, as of Tuesday's close. After hitting a six-year low, the Nasdaq has gained nearly 68%.

Bets that the economy is slowly starting to recover -- plus the impact of extraordinary amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus -- have fueled the market advance.

Despite pervasive calls for a September selloff, stocks have held on to gains and moved higher this month.

"You don't know if a September selloff has just been pushed into October or if a big selloff can be avoided altogether," he said.

Economy: Consumer confidence dropped in September, potentially a bad sign ahead of the critical holiday retail sales period. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to 53.1 from 54.5 in August. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com were expecting the index to rise to 57.

The pace of falling home prices continued to slow, according to a report released before the markets opened. The Case-Shiller 20-city home price index rose 1.6% in July from June, more than triple what economists surveyed by Briefing.com were expecting.

Prices dropped 13.3% in July versus a year ago, a decline that was slower than the drop of 14.2% economists were expecting. Prices fell 15.4% year-over-year in June.

Company news: CIT Group (CIT, Fortune 500), fighting to pay off debt and avoid bankruptcy, is reportedly negotiating a new credit facility that could total $10 billion. Shares of the lender jumped 31%. Earlier, reports said that hedge fund manager John Paulson was considering merging CIT with failed mortgage lender IndyMac.

Dell unveiled its newest high-end, super-thin personal computer late Monday. Called the Latitude Z, the 4.5-pound PC will retail for $1,999. Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) shares fell 3% Tuesday.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) said it is shuffling some of the management responsibilities of its successful investment banking and asset management units. Shares were little changed.

Drugstore chain Walgreen (WAG, Fortune 500) reported weaker quarterly earnings and higher quarterly revenue, both of which topped analysts' estimates. Shares rose 9%.

Sequenom (SQNM)'s board said it has removed most of its management team, including the CEO, following a scandal involving mishandling of research and results on its prenatal Down syndrome test. Shares of the genetic analysis product developer fell 39% in unusually active NYSE trading.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers narrowly edged winners on volume of 1.18 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers by five to four on volume of 2.11 billion shares.

One-year later: Tuesday is the first anniversary of the Dow's biggest one-day point loss of all time, when the average plummeted 777.68 points and the broad market knocked out $1.2 trillion in value.

The plunge followed the House of Representatives's decision to reject the government's then $700 billion bank bailout plan. With banks around the globe teetering on the brink of collapse and credit nearly frozen, the decision sparked a panic that battered stocks in every sector.

The crash followed a brutal two-week roller-coaster, triggered by the near-meltdown of Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) and the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

World markets: Global markets were mixed. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 and France's CAC 40 were little changed, while Germany's DAX slipped. Asian markets rallied, with the Japanese Nikkei rising 0.9%.

Currency and commodities: The dollar rose versus the yen and euro, pushing higher after repeatedly hitting one-year lows against a basket of currencies over the last few weeks.

U.S. light crude oil for October delivery fell 13 cents to settle at $66.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for December delivery rose 30 cents to settle at $994.40 an ounce. Gold closed at a record high of $1,020.20 two weeks ago.

Bonds: Treasury prices slumped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.29% from 3.28% late Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Image

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Tuesday's trade concluded in lackluster fashion as an absence of leadership left stocks to drift during the afternoon, unable to reclaim their initial gains.

Stocks had started the session in higher ground as a better-than-expected S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Report for July brought about some modest support. The report's 20-City Composite showed a 13.3% year-over-year decline, which wasn't as bad as the 14.2% decline that was expected.

However, the solid state of things quickly became unsettled by news that the September Consumer Confidence Index pulled back to 53.1 from 5.4.5 in August. The dip was unexpected; economists, on average, had been expecting a reading of 57.0.

The major indices were unable to fully recover from the flurry of selling that followed the disappointing consumer confidence reading.

News that the FDIC will require insured institutions to prepay estimated quarterly risk-based assessments into 2012 seemed to weight on bank stocks, though the announcement was generally expected. Diversified bank stocks fell 1.9%.

Consumer finance stocks were hit just as hard. They fell 1.9% amid news that the Fed has approved rules amending the transparency and disclosure of terms in credit card agreements.

Bright spots were limited, but shares of Walgreen (WAG 37.35, +3.16) logged their best single-session percentage advance in six months after the company posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings. The drug retailer helped consumer staples stocks stay in the green for the entire session.

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Discretionary +0.5%, Consumer Staples +0.4%, Utilities +0.2%, Materials +0.1%
Declining Sectors: Tech -0.7%, Energy -0.6%, Financials -0.5%, Telecom -0.5%, Industrials -0.2%, Health Care -0.1%DJ30 -47.16 NASDAQ -6.70 NQ100 -0.4% R2K -0.5% SP400 +0.3% SP500 -2.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1111/2.10 bln/1568 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1435/1.18 bln/1555

3:30 pm : Lighter-than-average volume persists as the broader market is relatively unchanged. The afternoon session has remained quiet following a more dramatic morning session.

Turning to the pits, energy commodities opened the pit trade modestly lower.

However, the November natural gas futures found upward momentum in the morning session and broke through the unchanged level soon after. They traded in positive territory for most of the afternoon. After hitting a session high at $4.98 per contract, they closed up just 0.8% at $4.87 per contract.

November crude oil futures traded in negative territory for most of the session and closed at $66.71 per barrel, down 0.2%.

Precious metals reverted back to the unchanged level after opening the pit trade marginally lower. Both metals had rather uneventful sessions. December gold futures closed up fractionally at $994.40 per ounce and December silver futures closed down fractionally at $16.18 per ounce.DJ30 -18.81 NASDAQ -2.04 SP500 +0.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1242/1.68 bln/1417 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1593/825 mln/1409

3:00 pm : One hour remains in the session and stocks still lack leadership. The listless trade comes on a slow news day for companies, though Walgreen (WAG 37.53, +3.34) was out this morning with some pleasing quarterly earnings results.

Dell (DELL 15.20, -0.47) also made a recent announcement of its own. The company expects its unit sales growth in China to beat the market's projected 12% expansion in the fourth quarter, according to Dow Jones.DJ30 -23.50 NASDAQ -3.24 SP500 +0.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1253/1.58 bln/1401 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1552/768 mln/1436

2:30 pm : The major indices remain bound to a narrow trading range, which has made for some rather slow and unexciting action. The stock market's afternoon crawl has mirrored those seen in many sessions in recent weeks.

Overseas markets finished the second trading session of the week in mixed fashion. Germany's DAX finished down 0.4%, while France's CAC closed 0.3% lower and Britain's FTSE finished just 0.1% lower. Asian markets made solid gains as Japan's Nikkei posted a 0.9% gain and Hong Kong's Hang Seng settled 2.1% higher.DJ30 -20.86 NASDAQ -3.30 SP500 -0.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1248/1.47 bln/1379 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1565/702 mln/1406

2:00 pm : Stocks continue to trade along the flat line, though advancing issues have a slight edge over decliners in the S&P 500.

Trading volume has picked up since the previous session, though. On Monday, total trading volume on the NYSE came in below 1 billion shares. Such weak turnout made for one of the most lightly traded sessions this year.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has been on a bit of a ride this session. The Dollar Index had been trading in the red in the early morning hours, but made its way to a 0.3% gain before recently returning to the unchanged mark.DJ30 -8.69 NASDAQ -1.17 SP500 +1.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1266/1.37 bln/1354 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1629/649 mln/1336

1:30 pm : The three major indices are trading in mixed fashion after they successfully pared some of their losses.

Amid the broader market's lackluster performance, mid-caps are performing exceptionally well this session. In turn, the S&P 400 is up 0.6%, with Lamar Advertising (LAMR 27.40, +1.93) and Thomas & Betts (TNB 30.43, +1.95) providing primary support. Both companies had their shares upgraded by analysts at Barclays. DJ30 -11.26 NASDAQ -1.03 SP500 +0.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1206/1.27 bln/1397 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1453/602 mln/1420

1:00 pm : A better-than-expected S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Report for July helped firm up stocks in premarket trading and give the major indices a positive start, but initial gains quickly turned to losses with the release of a disappointing Consumer Confidence Index reading for September. Stocks are currently paring losses, though.

The Conference Board's September Consumer Confidence Index came in at 53.1, which is down from the 54.1 that was registered in August and below the 57.0 that was widely expected.

The weaker-than-expected consumer confidence reading prompted sellers to step in and send the major equity averages into the red. Losses remained modest throughout the morning and now participants are showing signs of support.

Consumer staples stocks have been a primary source of support to the stock market. The sector is up 0.6%, thanks to strength in Walgreen (WAG 37.67, +3.48), which posted this morning better-than-expected quarterly earnings. Still, the consumer staples sector lacks weight in the broader market.

Meanwhile, technology, which holds the largest market weight in the S&P 500, is trading with a 0.4% loss. Most of that stems from weakness in large-cap tech.

Often a leader during recent months, financial stocks recently turned a fractional loss into a fractional gain. Diversified financial services companies (+0.7%) are showing relative strength, but diversified banks (-0.8%) are under pressure amid news that the FDIC will require insured institutions to prepay estimated quarterly risk-based assessments for the fourth quarter of this year and into 2012. The decision was widely expected, though.

Meanwhile, consumer finance stocks (-1.2%) are being sent lower amid news that the Fed has approved rules amending the transparency and disclosure of terms in credit card agreements.

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Staples +0.6%, Consumer Discretionary +0.6%, Materials +0.5%, Industrials +0.4%, Health Care +0.2%, Financials +0.1%, Utilities unch.
Declining Sectors: Energy -0.5%, Technology -0.4%, Telecom -0.1%DJ30 -6.80 NASDAQ -3.84 SP500 -0.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1197/1.16 bln/1390 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1517/559 mln/1426

12:30 pm : Tech stocks and energy stocks now make up the worst performing sectors in the S&P 500. Both sectors are down 0.8%.

Tech's weakness spans several industry groups, including semiconductor stocks and semiconductor equipment stocks. Losses among semiconductor-oriented companies has the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 1.3%.

As for energy, its losses come amid a 0.4% declilne in oil prices to $66.60 per barrel. Refiners (-1.5%) are seeing the most pressure in the energy sector. DJ30 -29.32 NASDAQ -9.83 SP500 -2.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1070/1.06 bln/1490 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1286/511 mln/1648

12:00 pm : Though the tone in the broader market has swung from positive to negative, consumer staples stocks continue to sport a relatively solid gain of 0.3%, which makes it a better performer than any other major sector. Its relative outperformance is owed to Walgreens (WAG 37.53, +3.34), which posted this morning better-than-expected earnings for its latest quarter. DJ30 -31.28 NASDAQ -11.85 SP500 -2.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1004/963 mln/1549 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1217/463 mln/1702

11:30 am : The S&P 500 recently dropped to the 1060 level, but was able to find enough support to halt its downward move. The stock market still trades with a modest loss, though.

Treasuries also buckled under selling pressure. The benchmark 10-year Note had been up 15 ticks this morning, but it is now trading two ticks into the red. In turn, its yield is back at multimonth lows below 3.29%.DJ30 -23.20 NASDAQ -7.39 SP500 -1.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1059/827 mln/1435 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1282/404 mln/1582

11:00 am : Stocks spent some time fighting to reclaim the gains that they lost following a disappointing Consumer Confidence Index for September, but the major indices have since faltered further and now trade at session lows.

Weakness remains the most pronounced among telecom stocks (-0.8%), but financials are also showing a fair amount of weakness. The sector is currently off 0.4% after trading with a gain of 1% in the first few minutes of the session. Banks are getting some attention from market participants assessing comments from the FDIC, which is looking to tap the ample liquidity of the financial institutions rather than its Treasury line, according to comments made during a conference call this morning. The FDIC is seeking comment from the industry before a plan is approved, however.DJ30 -34.61 NASDAQ -9.40 SP500 -2.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1019/725 mln/1425 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1212/358 mln/1621

10:30 am : Equity markets hit new lows in recent activity following consumer confidence figures, which were below consensus. Currently, major indices are trading just above lows, while the US Dollar Index is higher.

After trading near the unchanged line overnight, December crude traded down to a session low of $65.82, right around the open of pit trading. Crude bounced ~$1 off lows back to the unchanged line, but could not hold gains and recently fell back to session lows and is currently 0.4% lower at $66.60.

October natural gas is tracking crude this morning and hit its own lows of $4.598 per MMBtu just after the open of pit trading. Currently, natural gas is trading 3.1% lower at $4.682 per MMBtu.

The US Dollar Index popped higher in recent activity, pushing precious metals back into negative territory. December gold is currently 0.3% lower at $991.10 per ounce, while December silver is 0.3% lower at $16.14 per ounce.DJ30 -13.52 NASDAQ -2.64 SP500 +0.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 235.6/531.4 mln/282.3 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 168.6 /262.0 mln/88.3

10:05 am : A disappointing Conusmer Confidence Index reading for September has subjected stocks to a sudden flurry of selling pressure. Stocks had been sporting solid gains, but all three major sectors are now in the red.

According to the Conference Board, the Consumer Confidence Index for September came in at 53.1, which is below the 57.0 that was widely expected. The latest reading is also below the 54.1 that was registered in August.

Advancing Sectors: Consumer Staples +0.5%, Materials +0.4%, Consumer Discretionary +0.3%, Industrials +0.2%, Health Care +0.1%
Declining Sectors: Telecom -0.8%, Energy -0.5%, Technology -0.2%, Utilities -0.1%, Financials -0.1%

Early Movers: Trading up -- ASTC +143.3%, SNR +47.8%, NVGN +36.6%, MCGC +17.4%, GCI +15.1%, LEE +14.5%, WAG +12.2%, SPIR +12.1%, CERS +10.5%, NYT +9.9%, LUNA +9.3%, MNI +9.2%, WNC +8.9%, DDRX +8.1%, AF +7.1%, BSDM +6.9%; Trading down -- SQNM -34.3%, PSDV -12.8%, RCON -11.6%, FR -9%, TIV -8.4%, SIMG -7.2%, NLY -6.4%, RAX -6.4%, MBI -5.5%, SNV -4.9%, WNR -3.7%DJ30 -15.26 NASDAQ -4.76 SP500 -0.77 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1117/338 mln/1160 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1328/179 mln/1350

09:45 am : Stocks are making solid, broad-based gains in the first few minutes of action. Strength is most pronounced in the materials sector, which is currently up 1.3%. Financials (+1.0%) aren't far behind, though.

Telecom is showing considerable weakness, however. The sector is down 0.7% as integrated telcos AT&T (T 27.19, -0.24) and Verizon (VZ 30.10, -0.25) come under pressure. Foreign communication services outfit Vodafone (VOD 22.86, -0.14) is also showing weakness, despite news that it will begin selling the Apple (AAPL 187.10, +0.95) iPhone in parts of the United Kingdom.

Amid the early buying effort, Treasuries are being pressured. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is down some 14 ticks, which has lifted its yield off of multimonth lows to back above 3.3%.DJ30 +26.68 NASDAQ +6.29 SP500 +4.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1327/182 mln/854 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1670/110 mln/932

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.00. Thanks partly to a better-than-expected S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Report for July, stocks look as if they will extend the previous session's advance, which marked the S&P 500's best single-session percantage gain in one month. Participants will receive another trading catalyst with the release of September consumer confidence data at 10:00 AM ET. For now, though, overall news flow remains relatively slow.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.00. Stock futures have improved a bit in the wake of the latest dose of housing data. The S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index for July improved/slipped to 144.2 from 141.9 in the previous month. Meanwhile, the 20-city composite fell 13.3%, which is a more shallow drop than the 14.2% decline that was widely expected. It also marks a softer decline than the previous month's 15.4% retreat.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.50. European stocks are currently contending with some profit taking. As such, Britain's FTSE is off by 0.4% after gaining 1.6% in the previous session. Barclays (BCS) is providing some support this session, though. The company will purchase from Citigroup (C) certain Portuguese credit card operations. Meanwhile, Vodafone Group (VOD) is a laggard as participants show indifference to news that the company will sell the Apple (AAPL) iPhone in parts of the United Kingdom. Meanwhile, France's CAC is off 0.4% after it advanced 2.3% on Monday. Energy giant Total (TOT) is a primary laggard in current action, but BNP Paribas is providing support to the broader market amid news that it launched a rights issue to help it repay the emergency funding it had received from the French government. As for Germany, its DAX is down 0.5% following a 2.8% spike in the previous session. Engineering giant Siemens (SI) is undercutting the benchmark bourse even though the company reaffirmed its 2009 profit outlook, which reflects a gain from last year. Major Asian markets have fared far better. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 1.0% and Japan's Nikkei tacked on 0.9%. Recently underperformers rebounded as Nomura (NMR), Toshiba, Nissan (NSANY), and Honda Motor (HMC) gained. In economic news, Japan's CPI fell 2.4% in August, suggesting increased risk of prolonged deflation. Meanwhile, a Bank of Japan official indicated that the yen will weaken over time because of Japan's aging population. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 2.1% higher. Alibaba.com soared after it agreed to buy a controlling stake in China Civilink. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 0.3% lower, however.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.30. Stock futures suggest that the market's strong performance in the previous session may not carry over into today's trading so easily. The softer tone to premarket trading comes amid mixed action overseas and news that the International Monetary Fund will revise upward its 2009 and 2010 global economic growth forecasts, according to Dow Jones. The article indicated that the IMF expects 2009 output to reflect a 1% decline, improved from the 1.4% drop that was forecast in July. For 2010, the IMF expects output to grow 3%, up from the previous forecast for 2.5% growth. There are a few items on the economic calendar that could cause a stir among market participants this session. Specifically, the S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index for July is due at 9:00 AM ET, followed by the September Consumer Confidence reading at 10:00 AM ET. Dallas Fed President Fisher will be speaking in regard to economic conditions at 9:50 AM ET.

06:31 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.50.

06:31 am : Nikkei...10100.20...+90.70...+0.90%. Hang Seng...21013.17...+424.80...+2.10%.

06:31 am : FTSE...5155.08...-10.60...-0.20%. DAX...5714.65...-21.90...-0.40%.

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