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 Post subject: September 22nd Tuesday 2009 Emini ES ($ES_F) points +10.00
PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2009 3:37 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=307

Quote:
I recognized early in the trading session that it was going to be a low volatility range day even though the market gapped up nicely at the open in comparison to yesterday's close. As for my trading today in the Emini ES ($ES_F), had a few trade errors today but didn't push it too hard because of the low volatility range day that results in fewer trade opportunities.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their interest in trade signals while ignoring the impact of their trading habits/routine or personal lifestyle. If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +10.00 Emini ES ($ES_F) points

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Stocks Hit 1-Year Highs
Wall Street surges, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq ending at the highest point since last fall. Financial and commodity shares lead the way.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: September 22, 2009: 4:14 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Tuesday, finding momentum after a choppy morning, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all pushing toward fresh one-year highs.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) rose 51 points, or 0.5%, according to early tallies, ending at the highest point since Oct. 6, 2008. The S&P 500 (SPX) index added 7 points or 0.7%, ending at the highest point since Oct. 3, 2008.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 8 points or 0.4%, ending at its highest point since Sept. 26, 2008.

Stocks have carved out fresh nearly one-year highs repeatedly over the past two weeks, with the Nasdaq ending Monday's session at its highest level since shortly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

The slow, steady move up is creating anxiety in investors that they are missing out, which in turn is drawing more money into the market, said Larry Glazer, managing director at Mayflower Advisors.

"As the equity market keeps going up, its giving investors a reason to put their money to work," he said. "The bulk of (mutual) fund flows have been fixed income driven, but they are now starting to move incrementally into equities."

In the short term, investors are also attuned to the Federal Reserve meeting that concludes Wednesday and the Dow's climb toward 10,000. Although 10,000 is not a key technical level, it is a significant psychological level.

Despite ongoing calls for a September slide, investors continue to use any declines as an opportunity to get back in.

"The sign on a money manager's door is not 'Larry the cash hoarder,' it's 'Larry the money manager,'" said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. "And if he's sitting on a lot of cash, he's behind."

Dollar impact: Stocks have also benefited from the weakness of the dollar versus other major currencies.

Dollar-traded commodities and corresponding commodity stocks tend to rise when the greenback weakens. In addition, the weaker dollar impacts the stocks of companies that have a strong presence overseas.

Harris said that over the last six months it's been the most volatile names, leading the charge. He said that the leadership is now shifting to so-called higher quality names, as evidenced by the recent spikes in companies such as GE (GE, Fortune 500), AT&T (T, Fortune 500) and Verizon Communications (VZ, Fortune 500).

Since bottoming at a 12-year low March 9, the S&P 500 has gained 57.4% and the Dow has gained 49%, as of Monday's close. After hitting a six-year low, the Nasdaq has gained 68.5%.

Stocks have risen during those 6-1/2 months on signs that the economy is starting to recover -- and due to extraordinary amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus.

On the move: Dow gainers were fairly broad based, with 20 of 30 issues rising, including Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500).

A number of financial stocks gained too, including Dow components Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500).

Among other gainers, Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) rose 5% after Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC said it sold half of its stake in the company. GIC had bought a 9% stake in Citigroup at its lows and opted to cash in on the recent market rally to earn $1.6 billion.

The KBW Bank (BKX) sector index gained 2%.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers seven to three on volume of 1.04 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners four to three on volume of 2.35 billion shares.

Fed: The Federal Reserve began its two-day policy meeting Tuesday, with an announcement expected Wednesday afternoon. The central bank is expected to hold short-term interest rates unchanged at levels near zero.

Fed chief Ben Bernanke said last week that the recession is likely over, but the labor market still has a long way to go.

Economy: July home prices rose 0.3%, according to a report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released shortly after the start of trading. That was short of forecasts for a rise of 0.5%, according to Briefing.com survey of economists. Home prices rose a revised 0.1% in June.

World markets: Global markets rallied. In Europe, London's FTSE 100, France's CAC 40 and Germany's DAX all advanced. Asian markets ended higher.

Currency and commodities: The dollar fell against the yen and euro, after having advanced for the past few sessions.

U.S. light crude oil for October delivery rose $1.84 to settle at $71.55 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. COMEX gold for December delivery rose $10.60 to settle at $1,015.50 an ounce. Gold closed at a record high of $1,020.20 last week.

Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.46% from 3.48% late Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:25 pm : A falling dollar drove buying in commodities and commodity-related stocks to help the broader market start the session on positive footing, but it was the financial sector that emerged to provide the most leadership.

In complete contrast to the previous session, the S&P 500 spent the entire session trading in positive territory. Early gains were led by the energy sector (+1.4%), materials sector (+1.2%), and financial sector (+2.3%) after the trio had lagged in the previous session.

Advances by energy stocks and materials stocks were underpinned by sharp gains among commodity prices. Specifically, crude oil futures prices climbed 2.6% to $71.78 per barrel, while gold gained 1.1% to settle at $1015.80 per ounce.

The strong bounce by commodities came as the U.S. dollar slumped. That left the Dollar Index to drop 0.9%, which is its worst single-session percentage loss in nearly two months. However, the Dollar Index could not fully penetrate the 2009 lows that it set last week.

Despite a compelling case for commodities, buyers scooped up financials with conviction. That gave the financial sector a gain of more than 2%, the best of any major sector, and helped it settle near session highs.

Real estate trusts saw some of the sharpest moves as momentum buying took the holdings higher ahead of several REIT initial public offerings, but the influence of diversified financial services stocks (+3.5%) had the most impact on the broader financial sector. Shares of Bank of America (BAC 17.61, +0.36) traded as leaders after the stock had its price target raised by influential bank analyst Richard Bove.

Even though there was plenty of leadership from the financial sector, the broader market was range bound for nearly the entire afternoon. That left it to settle a few points off of session highs.

Treasuries saw strength at the long end of the yield curve after the results from a $43 billion auction of 2-year Treasuries showed a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.2 and a high yield of 1.03%. The 2-year Note tacked on 2 ticks to yield 0.95%, but the benchmark 10-year Note gained 9 ticks to yield 3.44% and the 30-year Bond climbed 21 ticks to yield nearly 4.20%. DJ30 +51.01 NASDAQ +8.26 NQ100 +0.1% R2K +0.8% SP400 +0.7% SP500 +7.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1526/2.50 bln/1155 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2168/1.27 bln/873

3:30 pm : The stock market is trading just off session highs, after running higher today primarily led by commodities/commodity stocks. Commodities gained momentum today largely from a lower US Dollar Index, which hit a 2-week low in today's session.

November crude oil, which is the new front month contract after the close today, rose 2.6% to $71.78 per barrel. The October crude oil contract, which expired at the close today, rose 2.6% to $71.50 per barrel, while the related Crude ETF, United States Oil (USO) is trading 3% higher at $36.93.

Natural gas didn't perform as well, but still rose 0.9% to $3.609 per MMBtu with its own related ETF United States Natural Gas (UNG) trading 1% higher at $11.36.

Precious metals also fared well on a weak dollar with December gold gaining 1.1% to $1015.80 per ounce and December silver rising 1.5% to close at $17.13 per ounce on the COMEX today. DJ30 +50.94 NASDAQ +10.40 SP500 +7.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1644/2.06 bln/1044 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2165/871.1 mln/856

3:00 pm : Stocks are attempting to break free from their recent trading range, which had kept the S&P 500 within a two-point span for nearly two hours. Still, stocks are off of their session highs, which were reached earlier this afternoon.

However, financials are looking to register fresh highs for the session. They are up 2.2% currently, but still shy of their 2009 highs. That feat was made on Sept. 17.DJ30 +57.28 NASDAQ +10.48 SP500 +8.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1660/1.92 bln/1011 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2189/797 mln/827

2:30 pm : Shares of Microsoft (MSFT 25.71, +0.41) top this session's list of most active names by trading volume. The heavy trading comes as shares of MSFT test their 2009 highs, which were initially set in July. Strength in the tech giant has made it a leader in the Nasdaq Composite.DJ30 +43.83 NASDAQ +7.78 SP500 +6.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1611/1.77 bln/1038 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2133/739 mln/862

2:00 pm : Treasuries have garnered support following the release of some strong auction results for 2-year Treasuries.

At 1:00 PM ET the results from a $43 billion auction of 2-year Treasuries showed a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.2 and a high yield of 1.03%. The 2-year Note is now up 2 ticks and yielding 0.95%, but stronger gains are being made at the long end of the yield curve. For instance, the benchmark 10-year Note is now up 10 ticks and yielding 3.44%. The 30-year Bond is up 22 ticks and yielding 4.19%. The latter two Treasuries are near session highs.

Meanwhile, the major equity averages continue to trade with solid gains, though their action has generally been choppy.DJ30 +51.62 NASDAQ +8.20 SP500 +7.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1596/1.67 bln/1051 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2144/691 mln/845

1:30 pm : After coming within close range of the 2009 highs that were set last week, the S&P 500 is retreating. Still, gains remain solid.

The Nasdaq 100 is lagging, however. It outperformed the headline indices in the previous session, but is currently flat as tech outfits like Qualcomm (QCOM 44.40, -0.47) and biotechs like Amgen (AMGN 60.76, -1.55) come under pressure. Biotechs were outperformers in the previous session.DJ30 +45.49 NASDAQ +6.77 SP500 +6.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1565/1.53 bln/1065 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2104/638 mln/873

1:00 pm : Stocks have overcome a few early bouts of selling pressure that threatened to undo initial gains. Though the market's initial advance looked to be linked to a weaker U.S. dollar, financials have emerged to provide primary leadership.

Following a modest loss for the S&P 500 in the previous session, buyers showed an early interest in stepping into the fold. Materials and energy stocks looked to be the plays of choice in the early going as a drooping dollar helped commodities prices rebound from the previous session. Commodities continue to fare well with crude oil futures up 2.7% to $71.60 per barrel and gold prices are up 1.2% to $1015.40 per ounce. That has helped both materials stocks and energy stocks hold on to 1.5% gains.

However, financials have jumped out to a 2.0% gain and are showing the most strength this session. Strength in the sector is broad, but diversified financial services stocks are providing the most leadership after influential bank analyst Richard Bove increased his price target on shares of Bank of America (BAC 17.65, +0.40).

Defensive-oriented stocks have lagged for the entire session. Accordingly, consumer staples are flat, health care is down 0.2%, telecom is off by 0.2%, and utilities are down 0.4%.

Airline stocks are also showing weakness after making some of the strongest gains in recent weeks. Month-to-date, the Amex Airline Index is up more than 25%, but it is down 1.5% this session. Weakness among airline stocks follows an announcement from AMR Corp (AMR 8.57, -0.46) that the company will issue a 30 million common share offering.

Other corporate announcements include a reaffirmed 2009 outlook from home improvement retailer Lowe's (LOW 21.30, -0.65). The company also issued a forecast for fiscal 2010. Both were in-line with the consensus, but that hasn't done much to support the stock.

With the broader market still sporting gains, Treasuries have found little support. That has left the benchmark 10-year Note flat and the 2-year Note flat. Treasuries could see some volatile action at 1:00 PM ET, which is when the results from the latest auction of 2-year Treasuries will be released.DJ30 +53.81 NASDAQ +9.64 SP500 +7.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1583/1.40 bln/1024 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2133/580 mln/831

12:30 pm : All three major indices are trading near their respective session highs, which were reached just a few minutes ago. Financials remain the primary beneficiary of the recent run -- the sector is now up 2.0%.

With stocks ascending, Treasuries have come under a bit of pressure. That has the benchmark 10-year Note trading with a single-tick gain and yielding 3.48%. The 2-year Note is also up one tick, but its yield stands closer to 0.97%. Treasuries could see some volatile action at 1:00 PM ET, which is when the results from the latest auction of 2-year Treasuries will be released.DJ30 +58.87 NASDAQ +11.53 SP500 +8.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1585/1.26 bln/989 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2130/527 mln/807

12:00 pm : The broader market is quickly making its way to fresh session highs, but airline stocks are under pressure. That has the Amex Airline Index down a considerable 1.4%. Prior to this session, the Amex Airline Index had advanced in 12 of 13 sessions.

AMR Corp (AMR 8.39, -0.64) is a primary laggard among airline stocks. The company announced last evening an offering of 30 million common shares and $250 million of convertible senior notes.DJ30 +37.33 NASDAQ +6.95 SP500 +6.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1488/1.11 bln/1075 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1998/466 mln/928

11:30 am : After descending to levels that coincide with the previous session's highs, the S&P 500 has marched higher and made its way back to the session highs that were registered earlier this morning.

Amid the upturn, financials have extended their gains to 1.5%. The sector's advance has been broad-based with diversified financial services stocks up 2.5%, multiline insurers up 1.9%, and diversified banks up 1.9%.DJ30 +29.77 NASDAQ +6.72 SP500 +5.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1487/982 mln/1057 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1982/413 mln/912

11:00 am : Stocks continue to chop along with modest gains. Materials (+1.0%), energy (+1.2%), and financials (+1.3%) remain the best performers this session.

While materials and energy stocks continue to benefit from higher commodity prices, financials are following gains of such banks as Bank of America (BAC 17.63, +0.38). Shares of BAC had their target price increased by influential bank analyst Richard Bove, but the company has also made the news as Reuters reported the bank failed to meet a deadline Monday to submit to officials details about its acquisition of Merrill Lynch. Meanwhile, Financial Times reported that Bank of America agreed to pay $425 million to regulators to extricate itself from an agreement to protect itself from $118 billion of toxic assets, most of which came from Merrill.DJ30 +13.30 NASDAQ +4.03 SP500 +4.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1372/840 mln/1105 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1936/351 mln/939

10:30 am : Trading remains choppy among the major stock indices, but commodities are sporting strong, steady gains. The ascent by commodities comes on the back of a drooping U.S. dollar, which is currently off by 0.9% after making gains in the previous three sessions.

The greenback's decline has been particularly helpful to oil prices, which are up 2.0% to $71.10 per barrel after they dropped more than 3% on Monday. However, natural gas prices have slid 0.1% to $3.55 per contract after they sank more than 5% in the previous session.

Gold prices are up 1.2% to $1015.60 per ounce, while silver prices are up 1.7% to $17.18 per ounce. They shed 0.5% and 1.1%, respectively, on Monday. Their rebound, along with buying in the broader equity market, has helped prop up shares of Newmont Mining (NEM 45.46, +1.05) and Yamana Gold (AUY 11.01, +0.25). The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD 99.54, +1.18) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV 16.83, +0.29) are also faring well.DJ30 +6.88 NASDAQ +2.73 SP500 +3.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1370/623 mln/1082 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1875/271 mln/920

10:00 am : Stocks are trending lower in choppy trade. The downside move by the broader market had been contained, but the Dow and Nasdaq are now threatening to dip into the red.

Health care stocks and telecom stocks are extending their morning decline. Health care is now down 0.6%, while telecom is off by 0.7%. Managed care providers (-2.0%) are weighing heavily on the health care sector, but integrated telcos (-0.8%) are weighing on the telecom sector.

Consumer staples stocks remain in the red as they trade with a 0.2% loss, but utilities stocks, which were recently trading with a fractional loss, are now up to a 0.1% gain.

The choppy trade comes as the latest batch of anecdotal data shows that the September Richmond Manufacturing Index came in at 14, which is slightly below the reading of 16 that was expected. Meanwhile, house prices for July increased 0.3% month-over-month; they were expected to increase 0.5%.

Early movers: Trading up --BSDM +119.2%, KSW +23.2%, RAIL +16.7%, CHIP +13.2%, KWK +13.2%, FFBC +11.8%, AIG +11.7%, HOLI +10.9%, DAN +9.6%, NCT +9.3%, PNK +8.9%, GTN +8.5%, VGZ +8.4%; Trading down -- LIME -17.1%, DDRX -12.9%, PAL -7%, FRBK -6.5%, SCO -5.5%, DTO -5.4%, ZSL -5%, FSC -4.8%, AMR -4.7%DJ30 +5.52 NASDAQ +0.93 SP500 +2.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1278/403 mln/1071 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1772/185 mln/947

09:45 am : The major equity averages are making solid gains in the first few minutes of trade. The advance has been strongest among financials (+1.0%), energy (+1.1%), and materials (+1.1%) stocks. The three sectors were the worst performers in the previous session -- they each shed 0.9%.

Conversely, defensive-oriented stocks are trading as early laggards. As such, consumer staples are down 0.3%, telecom is off by 0.1%, and utilities and health care are both fractionally lower.DJ30 +29.02 NASDAQ +9.13 SP500 +5.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1573/210 mln/663 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2001/113 mln/662

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.00. Stocks look to be headed for a solid start after the S&P 500 slipped in the previous session. The improved tone comes as commodities stocks and basic materials stocks attract buyers amid a drooping U.S. dollar. With the greenback down 0.8% against a basket of major foreign currencies, commodities are looking up. In turn, crude oil futures are up 2.8% to $71.65 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. Meanwhile, gold prices are up 1.3% to $1016.70 per ounce. The mood among participants is also being helped along by overseas buying, which has followed news that the Asian Development Bank raised its growth forecasts for the region.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.00. In corporate news, home improvement retailer Lowe's (LOW) reaffirmed its fiscal 2009 outlook, which calls for earnings from $1.13 to $1.21 per share. The company also issued a forecast for fiscal 2010 that calls for earnings from $1.24 to $1.34 per share. Analysts, on average, expect 2009 earnings to total $1.20 per share and 2010 earnings to total $1.34 per share. Shares of LOW are down some 1% to $21.65 per share ahead of the opening bell. Meanwhile, auto retailer CarMax (KMX) posted this morning second quarter adjusted earnings of $0.36 per share. That was double the consensus earnings estimate of $0.18 per share and has helped send shares of KMX up more than 6% to $20.61 per share in premarket action. In other earnings news, food company ConAgra (CAG) posted first quarter adjusted earnings of $0.38 per share, which is $0.04 better than the consensus estimate of $0.34 per share. Shares of CAG have responded by eking out a 0.5% gain to hit $22.45 per share in premarket trading. Separately, shares of Macy's (M) are garnering support after analsyts at Citigroup upgraded the stock. Shares of M are up nearly 6% to $18.83 per share. In a similar vein, shares of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) are up more than 1% to $47.08 per share in premarket trading following an upgrade from analysts at Credit Suisse. Analysts at Bank of America's Merrill Lynch have upgraded shares of U.S. Steel (X). That has the stock up almost 3% to $49.40 per share ahead of the opening bell. Broad market stock futures continue to show strength, as well.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.50. Europe's major equity averages are sporting solid gains. Germany's DAX is currently a frontrunner. It is up 1.2% as 27 of its 30 components stage advances. Muenchener Rue is a primary leader, as are Daimler (DAI) and Allianz (AZ). Allianz is planning to delist from the NYSE and other European stock exchanges to reduce reporting complexities, according to Dow Jones. In France, the CAC is up 0.8%. Energy giant Total (TOT) and steel giant ArcelorMittal (MT) are underpinning strength in the index. Meanwhile, Britain's FTSE has gained 0.9%, so far. Natural resource outfits BP PLC (BP), Rio Tinto (RTP), and BHP Billiton (BHP) are providing the most leadership. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index (excluding Japan) climbed 1.0%. Japan's Nikkei was closed for holiday, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng logged a 1.1% gain. Airline stocks gained amid initiatives to restructure the aviation freight industry. Sinopec (SNP), a top oil refiner, benefited from a slip in crude oil prices. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite faltered. It lost 2.3% as financial stocks fell. Despite some of the mixed action from the region, members of Asia Development Bank believe that the Asian region's economy will grow more than the ADB had previously thought and that the region will lead a global recovery.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.50. The U.S. dollar is under stiff pressure after an extended rebound from 2009 lows during recent sessions. That is helping to support interest in commodities and, in turn, materials and energy stocks. Their premarket gains are helping to support positive interest in the broader market, positioning it for a modest rebound from the previous session's loss. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for September and the July House Price Index will provide participants with a couple of anecdotal economic reports at 10:00 AM ET. The FOMC convenes for its latest meeting, but an official policy statement won't be made until tomorrow. According to The Wall Street Journal, the Fed won't meet the Treasury's October 1 deadline to prepare a broad review of the central bank's structure and governance.

06:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.50.

06:30 am : Nikkei...Holiday......... Hang Seng...2101.14...+228.30...+1.10%.

06:30 am : FTSE...5177.58...+43.20...+0.80%. DAX...5735.80...+67.20...+1.20%.

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