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 Post subject: September 21st Monday 2009 Emini ES ($ES_F) points +10.25
PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2009 3:42 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=306

Quote:
Light trading today for me again like last Thursday. However, I felt a little sick today and took a long mid-day nap in an attempt to re-energize. That in itself resulted in a few missed trade opportunities even though today's range day contained very few trading opportunities.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their interest in trade signals while ignoring the impact of their trading habits/routine or personal lifestyle. If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +10.25 Emini ES ($ES_F) points

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Stocks Sputter After Hitting Records
Wall Street churns, as the six-month market advance hits some turbulence. Dow falls after ending last week at a nearly one-year high.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: September 21, 2009: 4:10 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Falling commodity prices and financial shares dragged on blue chips Monday, keeping the market choppy after a more than six-month advance.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 41 points, or 0.4%, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 (SPX) index lost about 3 points, or 0.3%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 5 points, or 0.2%.

Stocks managed to hit fresh 2009 highs Friday as investors continued to shake off calls for a September selloff. But with the major indexes up substantially since March, stocks are vulnerable to a pullback, analysts said.

Since bottoming at a 12-year low March 9, the S&P 500 has gained 58% and the Dow has gained 50%, as of Friday's close. After hitting a six-year low, the Nasdaq has gained 68%.

Stocks have risen during those 6-1/2 months due to slowly improving economic news and extraordinary amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus. But analysts say that the run has been too much, too soon.

The Federal Reserve, meeting Tuesday and Wednesday, is likely to hold short-term interest rates steady at historic lows near zero. Last week, Fed chief Ben Bernanke said the recession is likely over but the labor market still has a long way to go.

Over the weekend, President Obama said that job growth won't kick in until the end of the recovery, sometime next year.

Reports on housing and consumer sentiment are due later in the week. On Thursday, the Group of 20 leading developed and emerging countries will meet in Pittsburgh to discuss the global economy in the wake of the recession.

Economy: The August index of leading economic indicators rose 0.6%, according to a report from the Conference Board released Monday. That was short of forecasts for a rise of 0.7%, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com. LEI rose 0.6% in July.

Company news: PC maker Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) is buying Perot Systems (PER), a provider of information technology services, in a $3.9 billion all-cash deal.

Dell shares fell 4.5% in Monday trading, while Perot Systems rose 65%.

AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) shares rallied 20% after a Congressional report said the company has stabilized although it was unclear whether it would ever be able to pay back its federal bailout. AIG received as much as $182 billion from Treasury and the Federal Reserve at different points in time over the last year.

Home builder Lennar (LEN) reported a wider quarterly loss Monday morning, but also said it will be profitable next year if the economy remains stable. Shares fell 3%.

Among the decliners, Dow financial stocks American Express (AXP, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) all declined.

Coca-Cola (KO, Fortune 500), McDonald's (MCD, Fortune 500), Caterpillar and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) were among the Dow's other losers.

Market breadth was mixed. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers beat winners two to one on volume of 1.18 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers seven to six on volume of 2.39 billion shares.

Currency and commodities: The dollar gained against the yen and euro, reversing its recent declines.

The rising greenback pressured dollar-traded commodities such as oil and gold.

U.S. light crude oil for October delivery tumbled $2.33 to settle at $69.71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. COMEX gold for December delivery fell $5.40 to settle at $1004.90 an ounce. Gold hit a record high of $1,020.20 last week.

Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.48% from 3.45% Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

World markets: Global markets tumbled. In Europe, London's FTSE 100, France's CAC 40 and Germany's DAX all slipped. Asian markets ended lower.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:15 pm : The Nasdaq logged a modest gain as biotech stocks advanced in the face of broader market selling pressure, which kept the Dow and S&P 500 in the red for the entire session.

Coming off of a gain of more than 2% last week, participants moved against stocks in broad fashion. Of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500, health care was the only one to sport a steady gain for the vast majority of the session. It finished 0.7% higher as biotechs climbed 2.4%.

Biotechs were also primary leaders in the Nasdaq Composite and the Nasdaq 100, where large-cap technology typically determines the direction of trade. Tech stocks finished fractionally higher, but Dell (DELL 16.01, -0.68) was dropped for a sizable loss. It announced that it will acquire Perot Systems (PER 29.56, +11.65) for $3.9 billion, or $30 per share in cash, which represents a near 70% premium to the closing price of PER last Friday.

This session's losses were steepest among financials, energy stocks, and materials stocks. All three shed 0.9%. Financials fell as consumer finance stocks (-2.5%) and life and health insurers (-2.1%) faltered, but energy and materials stocks were pressured by falling natural resource prices.

Oil futures prices dropped 3.2% to $69.71 per barrel, while natural gas fell 5.4% to $3.57 per contract. Gold prices finished 0.5% lower at $1004.90 per ounce, while silver prices settled 1.1% lower at $16.88 per ounce. Their collective weakness took the CRB Commodity Index down 2.2%, which is its worst single-session percentage loss in more than one month.

A rebounding U.S. dollar, which lifted the Dollar Index to a 0.5% gain, only emboldened the desire of participants to dump commodities.

For the fifth consecutive month, the Leading Indicators Index posted positive growth. However, the 0.6% increase for August was slightly less than the 0.7% increase that was widely expected and was also down from the upwardly revised 0.9% increase that was registered in July. There wasn't much importance placed on the report since it has done a poor job in past recessionary cycles of predicting the shape of economic recovery.DJ30 -41.34 NASDAQ +5.18 NQ100 +0.4% R2K -0.3% SP400 -0.3% SP500 -3.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1243/2.41 bln/1430 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1010/1.20 bln/2003

3:30 pm : Stocks recently made a late afternoon recovery effort, but the move lost momentum before the S&P 500 could find positive ground. The broad stock index has spent the entire session in negative territory, much as commodities did. That has left the CRB Commodity Index to shed 2.2%, its worst loss in more than one month.

Crude oil prices contributed considerably to the weakness in the CRB. Oil futures prices dropped 3.2% to take oil down to $69.71 per barrel. Natural gas also fared poorly; it fell 5.4% to $3.57 per contract.

As for precious metals, gold prices finished pit trade 0.5% lower at $1004.90 per ounce. It had been down more than 1% in the early going. Silver prices settled 1.1% lower at $16.88 per ounce.

Selling pressure against commodities was exacerbated by a rebounding U.S. dollar, which helped lift the Dollar Index to a 0.5% gain. The Dollar Index was at 2009 lows last week.DJ30 -25.47 NASDAQ +7.56 SP500 -1.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1272/1.99 bln/1398 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1076/842 mln/1927

3:00 pm : News flow remains slow, leaving participants with few trading catalysts. In turn, the major indices remain mixed and range bound with just one hour remaining in this session. DJ30 -35.75 NASDAQ +5.25 SP500 -3.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1216/1.81 bln/1443 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1000/757 mln/1985

2:30 pm : The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average remain in negative territory, unable to break free from their trading recent range. Losses are also broad-based after a recent upswing proved short-lived.

Despite this session's general weakness, airline stocks are flying high. In turn, the Amex Airline Index is up 3.4%. It has advanced in 11 of the last 12 sessions, gaining more than 30% in that time.DJ30 -45.80 NASDAQ +1.89 SP500 -4.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1179/1.59 bln/1480 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 925/712 mln/2049

2:00 pm : The S&P 500 has pulled up a bit to make its way back near the 1065 level, which is near the lows that were registered this past Friday. The line has created a bit of resistance this session.

Defensive-oriented stocks are starting to garner additional support. Beyond the health care sector's 0.8% gain, utilities stocks and consumer staples stocks are fractionally below the neutral line. Tech, though ordinarily not considered defensive, is trading flat.DJ30 -37.79 NASDAQ +3.60 SP500 -3.75 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1170/1.46 bln/1479 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 918/646 mln/2047

1:30 pm : The major indices are slowly drifting lower. However, health care stocks continue to add to their gains. Health care stocks are now up 0.8% and are the only major sector to trade with a gain. DJ30 -41.72 NASDAQ +1.60 SP500 -4.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1103/1.311 bln/1534 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 846/595 mln/2103

1:00 pm : Stocks started the session markedly lower as weakness overseas helped convince participants to take profits after watching the S&P 500 advance 2.5% last week -- its eighth weekly gain in 10 weeks.

The broader market remains under pressure, but the Nasdaq Composite has managed to find higher ground. Its relative strength is largely owed to advances by biotech shares (+1.9%). Biotech has also helped prop up the health care sector so that it trades with a 0.6% gain.

One of the biggest advancers this session is Perot Systems (PER 29.58, +11.67), which is being acquired by Dell (DELL 16.00, -0.69) for $30 per share in cash. The offer represents a near 70% premium to the closing price of PER last Friday.

In other corporate news, Potash (POT 92.08, -5.06) lowered its earnings outlook, which now falls short of the consensus forecast. The downside forecast from the agricultural chemical outfit has weighed on the materials sector, which is down 1.2%.

Weakness among materials stocks has been exacerbated by declines in commodity prices, which have taken the CRB Commodity Index down 2.0%. Gold and oil have cast a considerable drag on the CRB as the U.S. dollar extends its rebound from the 2009 lows that it set last week. Gold is currently down 0.6% to $1003 per ounce, while oil prices are down 4% to $69.15 per barrel.

The drop in oil prices has pushed oil exploration stocks down 2.0% and oil equipment stocks down 1.6%. The energy sector, as a whole, is down 1.4%, worse than any other major sector.

The only item on today's economic calendar was the leading indicators report for August. It showed a slightly smaller-than-expected increase of 0.6%. Stocks were largely unmoved by the report.DJ30 -43.76 NASDAQ +2.21 SP500 -4.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1138/1.20 bln/1494 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 810/550 mln/2117

12:30 pm : Trading in the broader market remains listless, leaving stocks largely unchanged from recent levels. The narrow trading range comes after stocks made their way up from lows, but ran into near-term resistance. DJ30 -35.98 NASDAQ +3.21 SP500 -4.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1151/1.11 bln/1478 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 858/511 mln/2063

12:00 pm : The major indices are taking a bit of a breather after making their way off of session lows. Losses remain rather broad, though. In turn, around 65% of the companies in the S&P 500 are trading with losses. More than 80% were trading with losses in the early going.

Commodities remain under a good deal of pressure, even though the U.S. dollar has eased back so that the Dollar Index trades with a 0.4% gain. Still, the CRB Commodity Index is down 1.9% with crude oil prices off by 3.4% at $69.60 per barrel.DJ30 -26.60 NASDAQ +6.21 SP500 -3.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1141/991 mln/1457 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 866/464 mln/2005

11:30 am : Stocks are attempting a late-morning recovery that has helped put the Nasdaq in positive ground. The Dow and the S&P 500 are still in the red, but their losses are modest.

Tech stocks are showing signs of relative strength. The sector is now up 0.1% after spending the entire morning in the red. Molex (MOLX 21.69, +1.33) is a primary leader among tech issues after the company issued upside guidance.

Health care remains the best performing sector, however. It is up 0.4% as health care facilities stocks (+4.6%), biotech (+2.0%), and health care services (+1.1%) outperform.DJ30 -29.40 NASDAQ +4.79 SP500 -3.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1114/848 mln/1452 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 792/408 mln/2070

11:00 am : Stocks continue to trade in negative territory. Action has been choppy, thus far.

However, the Nasdaq Composite is holding up better than its counterparts against this session's selling effort. Due to relative strength among biotech outfits, the Nasdaq's percentage loss is smaller than half of the percentage loss in either the Dow or the S&P 500.

Amgen (AMGN 62.21, +1.41) and Celgene (CELG 54.97, +2.43) are the primary leaders in the Nasdaq. Amgen announced some positive phase 3 drug test results, while shares of CELG recently received an analyst upgrade.DJ30 -68.10 NASDAQ -4.85 SP500 -7.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 932/701 mln/1605 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 628/343 mln/2202

10:30 am : The strength in the U.S. Dollar Index and weak equity markets are weighing on the commodity complex this morning.

October crude oil traded in negative territory overnight and remains there in currently activity. Crude just hit fresh lows of $69.10 per barrel and is trading just above that level in recent trading at $69.43 per barrel, down 3.6%.

October natural gas traded in a tight range just under the unchanged line in overnight trading and extented losses ahead of the open of pit trading, hitting fresh lows recently of $3.532 per MMBtu. Currently, natural gas is down 3.3% at $3.654 per MMBtu.

The dollar is also weighing on the precious metals group. December gold is currently trading 1% lower at $1000.70 per ounce, while December silver is trading 2% lower at $16.73 per ounce.DJ30 -64.32 NASDAQ -6.83 SP500 -7.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 876/524.4 mln/1612 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 590/258.2 mln/2195

10:00 am : The S&P 500 is back near its morning lows after attempting to pare its opening loss. Weakness remains widespread with more than 80% of the S&P 500 components in the red.

Losses are also rather sizable. Of the major sectors, seven are trading with losses of at least 1%. Declines remain the worst in the materials sector, which is now down 2.3%.

In recent economic news, the leading indicators report for August showed a 0.6% increase. It was expected to increase 0.7%. The previous month's data was revised upward to show an increase of 0.9%.

Early movers: Trading up -- CHIP +92.2%, PER +65.6%, CUR +28.3%, MERC +21.6%, FFBC +14.3%, NKTR +14.3%, PSDV +9.6%, BRKS +8.5%, DTO +7.2%, SCO +6.6%, ERY +5.3%; Trading down -- DPTR -32.7%, NCT -11.8%, REXX -8.1%, IAG -7.9%, GTN -7.2%, AMSC -7%, MTL -7%, CBBO -7%, AIB -6.9%, EXK -6.9%, PCX -6.5%, NG -6.5%DJ30 -86.23 NASDAQ -12.23 SP500 -10.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 822/314 mln/1563 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 499/169 mln/2211

09:45 am : Stocks are trading with broad-based losses in the first few minutes of action. Of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500, only health care is up. Still, its advance is being contained to a gain of just 0.3%.

Losses are steepest among materials stocks. The sector is off by 1.5% as basic commodities prices are pressured by a rebounding U.S. dollar, which is up 0.8% against a basket of major foreign currencies.DJ30 -53.06 NASDAQ -5.53 SP500 -5.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 779/183 mln/1534 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 490/110 mln/2172

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -10.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.80. Stocks continue to show weakness ahead of the opening bell. The downward bias doesn't come on the back of any particular news item, but it does follow a relatively solid week of gains, which resulted in a weekly advance of 2.5% for the S&P 500. The S&P 500 has made its way higher in eight of the last 10 weeks, gaining more than 20% during that time, so some occasional profit taking shouldn't come as much of a surprise. However, many investors in Perot Systems (PER) were surprised to learn this morning that Dell (DELL) has entered an agreement to acquire outstanding shares of PER for $30 per share in cash, which represents a near 70% premium to their closing price this past Friday. Dell believes the acquisition will prove accretive to earnings in 2012. In other corporate news, Potash (POT) lowered its earnings outlook, which now falls short of the consensus forecast, and Lennar (LEN) posted a deep loss for its latest quarter.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -10.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.00. Stock futures continue to contend with selling pressure. Commodities futures prices are showing considerable weakness of their own. Gold prices are down a steep 1.1% to trade at $998 per ounce. The loss currently makes for gold's worst single-session percentage price drop in nearly one month. Oil prices are also faring poorly. Crude oil futures prices are down 3.2% to $69.70 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. Weakness in gold and oil has been exacerbated by a sharp bounce by the U.S. dollar. In turn, the Dollar Index is up 0.8%, which is the best single-session percentage advance this month.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -10.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.80. U.S. stock futures continue to lag fair value such that a lower start for the domestic averages looks to be in order. In the meantime, foreign markets are already contending with selling pressure. Germany's DAX is showing the most weakness. It is currently off by 1.2% as decliners outnumber advancing issues by 5-to-1. Allianz (AZ) is showing strength, however. The company's shares were upgraded by analysts at JPMorgan. In France, the CAC has fallen 0.7% with BNP Paribas and Societe Generale leading losses. ArcelorMittal (MT) is also under pressure amid news from Financial Times that rivals of the global steel giant believe that the company's predictions for a strong rebound in the global steel industry are too optimistic. Britain's FTSE is currently facing a 0.8% loss. Steel stocks Rio Tinto (RTP) and Xstrata (XTA) are following ArcelorMittal lower, while banking outfits HSBC (HBC) and Barclays (BCS) are compounding weakness. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei was closed for holiday observance, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 0.7%. Financials Bank of China, Industrial & Commercial Bank, and China Life were primary laggards in the Hang Seng. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite was able to eke out a 0.2% gain, but the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.6%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.30. Stock futures are currently showing weakness, but they have managed to make their way off of early morning lows. Dell (DELL) has made headlines by announcing that it will pay $30 per in cash to acquire each outstanding share of Perot Systems (PER) in a transaction valued at $3.9 billion. Dell's representatives indicated that the acquisition of Perot is expected to prove accretive to earnings in 2012. Shares of DELL are down 3.5% to $16.10 per share, while shares of PER are up more than 65% to $29.69 per share. There aren't any other major headlines of note out this morning. Leading indicators for August make up the only economic report today -- that data is due at 10:00 AM ET. Meanwhile, foreign markets are facing resistance of their own.

06:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -10.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.30.

06:35 am : Nikkei...Holiday......... Hang Seng...21472.85...-150.60...-0.70%.

06:35 am : FTSE...5128.11...-44.80...-0.90%. DAX...5630.96...-146.20...-1.20%.

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