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 Post subject: September 18th Friday 2009 Emini ($ES_F) points (no trades)
PostPosted: Fri Sep 18, 2009 6:50 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 1:06 pm
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @

Today was a schedule "no trading" day for me to do a 3 day weekend fun event with the family. In fact, spouse wants me to do this for every Friday of a Quadruple Witching week in which I'll take the day off to make it a 3 day weekend...agree.

FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.


In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their interest in trade signals while ignoring the impact of their trading habits/routine or personal lifestyle. If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +0.00 Emini ES ($ES_F) points (no trades due to 3 day weekend for family event)


Dow Nears One-Year Highs
Wall Street stretches the recent rally, with the blue-chip average closing at the highest point since October 2008.
By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
Last Updated: September 18, 2009: 6:40 PM ET

NEW YORK ( -- Wall Street stretched to new one-year highs Friday as investors weighed economic optimism with jitters about the pace of the rally amid the "quadruple witching," a big quarterly options expiration.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 36 points, or 0.4%. The blue-chip average closed at its highest point since Oct. 6, 2008.

The S&P 500 (SPX) index rose about 3 points, or 0.3% and closed just shy of a fresh almost one-year high.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP) added 6 points, or 0.3% and closed just shy of a one-year high.

The major indexes have now risen in 9 of the last 11 sessions.

But trading was choppy Friday due to the quadruple options expiration, a quarterly event when stock index futures and options and individual stock futures and options all expire at the same time. By the afternoon, attendance was light, due to the start of Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish new year.

Stocks ended just below unchanged Thursday after closing Wednesday's session at the highest point in nearly a year. Since bottoming at a 12-year low March 9, the S&P 500 has gained 58% and the Dow has gained 50%. Since bottoming at a six-year low, the Nasdaq has gained 68%.

Stocks have risen during those 6-1/2 months thanks to slowly improving economic news and extraordinary amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus.

But consumer sentiment is still well below what it should be and that's creating some hesitation for investors, said Kelli Hill, portfolio manager at Ashfield Capital Partners. "The issue now is, what is it going to take for consumers to get back in and spend," she said.

Stocks have avoided the much-discussed September selloff, but Hill said it may have just been postponed until October, when the third-quarter profit reports start arriving. "Expectations for a broad earnings recovery could prove disappointing and that could create more volatility."

Economy: Michigan, Nevada and three other states posted unemployment rates above 12% in August, according to government data released Friday.

The report came one day after the Labor Department reported a surprise drop in weekly unemployment claims. Earlier this month, the government said employers cut 216,000 jobs from their payrolls in August.

On the move: Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500) rallied 3.2% and was among the Dow's biggest gainers after Citigroup upgraded it to "buy" from "hold."

Other Dow gainers included components Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500), Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500), Pfizer (PFE, Fortune 500), Coca-Cola (KO, Fortune 500) and AT&T (T, Fortune 500).

Palm (PALM) said late Thursday that smartphone sales surged 134% to 823,000 last quarter, thanks to sales of its Pre phone. However, the company still reported a steep quarterly loss, its 9th consecutive decline. Shares fell 3%.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers by nearly three to two on volume of 2.27 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers narrowly topped losers on volume of 3.2 billion shares.

Flash trading: The Securities and Exchange Commission proposed banning so-called flash orders Thursday, a trading practice that critics say gives market pros an unfair advantage over individual investors.

Flash orders allow certain traders to see orders to buy and sell stocks and other securities a split second before the rest of Wall Street, giving them advance knowledge about the direction of a market or a security. Flash orders make up less than 3% of stock trading.

Sens. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., and Ted Kaufman, D-Del., have led the legislative push. But supporters worry that the government will also begin a crackdown on other kinds of trading practices that can help move the market along.

Nasdaq OMX Group, which runs the Nasdaq Stock Market and the BATS exchange stopped using flash orders as of Sept. 1. The New York Stock Exchange, owned by NYSE Euronext, has never used them. Currently, Direct Edge makes use of them.

Regulators are also looking at new limits on the credit ratings industry, dominated by Moody's, Fitch and Standard & Poor's.

Currency and commodities: The dollar gained against the yen and euro after sliding for most of the last two weeks. The dollar hit a 9-month low against the euro and a 7-month low against the yen earlier this week.

The falling greenback has been lifting dollar-traded commodities lately, but the reversal Friday had little impact on the price of oil or gold.

U.S. light crude oil for October delivery fell 43 cents to settle at $72.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. COMEX gold for December delivery fell $3.20 to settle at $1,010.30 an ounce. Gold settled Wednesday at a record high of $1,020.20.

Bonds: Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.45% from 3.39% Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

World markets: Global markets were mixed. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 ended higher, but France's CAC 40 and Germany's DAX all slipped. Asian markets ended lower.


Yahoo! Finance

4:10 pm : Despite choppy, listless action and some late pressure, stocks were able to log another solid gain, which helped give the S&P 500 a 2.5% weekly gain.

There weren't any major news items or economic items to act as positive trading catalysts this session, but the market's bullish bias still came through. In turn, the S&P 500 finished in higher ground for the ninth time in 11 sessions.

Telecom stocks made the best gains after lagging in each of the previous two sessions. The sector mounted a steady advance in the second half of the session to finish with a 2.1% gain.

Health care (-0.1%), materials (-0.1%), financials (-0.1%), and energy (-0.1%) were the declining sectors, but each managed to limit losses.

Trading volume was especially high with more than 2 billion shares exchanging hands on the NYSE. That marked the highest level of volume since June. It was largely induced by the S&P quarterly rebalancing and the quadruple witching options expiration.

The U.S. dollar showed particular strength, which helped the Dollar Index climb nearly 0.4% after hitting fresh 2009 lows just one session before. The greenback's gains helped pressure commodities and send the CRB Commodity Index down 0.7%.

Weakness among commodities was particularly pronounced in crude oil futures, which saw prices slip 0.7% to $72.95 per barrel.

Gold prices eased back, but remain above $1000 per ounce; they settled fractionally lower at $1010.30 per ounce after reaching their best levels of the year earlier this week.DJ30 +36.28 NASDAQ +6.11 NQ100 +0.2% R2K +0.4% SP400 -0.1% SP500 +2.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1417/3.02 bln/1296 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1752/2.28 bln/1253

3:30 pm : The broader market is trading near its best levels of the session. Energy is currently the only sector not in positive territory.

Natural gas futures continued their trend of recent volatile sessions. The October futures soared 9.2% during the pit trade. Much of the move has been attributed to short-covering. The October futures closed at $3.78 per contract and are now up 57% off the September lows.

Crude oil spent much of the session chopping below the unchanged level. The October crude oil futures closed at $72.95 per barrel, down 0.7%.

A stronger dollar muted precious metals prices this session. After reaching their best levels in a year and a half at $1024.70 per ounce on Wednesday, the December gold futures closed the week at $1010.30 per ounce, down fractionally on the session. Although the move in the gold futures was not significant, gold miners felt considerable selling pressure. The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX 46.05 -1.72) is currently down 3.6%. December silver futures fell 1.2% to close at $17.06 per ounce. DJ30 +54.94 NASDAQ +11.10 SP500 +5.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1503/2.37 bln/1172 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1805/1.31 bln/1180

3:00 pm : Action remains choppy as stocks enter into the final hour of the session. With today's gains, stocks are looking at a week-to-date gain of 2.5%. That's only a bit shy of the 2.6% weekly gain that was registered last week.DJ30 +47.09 NASDAQ +8.80 SP500 +4.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1472/2.21 bln/1179 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1751/1.22 bln/1233

2:30 pm : This afternoon's advance has stalled as the S&P 500 comes in touch with the 1070 level, which is just below this morning's highs. Those highs, however, remain short of the intraday and 2009 highs that were registered in the previous session.DJ30 +52.15 NASDAQ +10.77 SP500 +4.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1440/2.06 bln/1234 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1750/1.15 bln/1212

2:00 pm : Stocks have gradually chopped higher to extend their afternoon gains. This session's advance has now completely erased the losses that were registered in the previous session.

Consumer staples stocks remain the best performers. As a group, consumer staples stocks are up 1.2%. Telecom has joined the consumer staples sector as the only other plus-1% gainer. Telecom is up 1.1%.

Financials continue to lag. The sector is down 0.2% and is the only major sector still in the red.DJ30 +58.57 NASDAQ +11.04 SP500 +4.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1399/1.91 bln/1260 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1707/1.09 bln/1227

1:30 pm : Semiconductor stocks are showing strength this session. As such, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 1.3%. Sandisk (SNDK 22.57, +0.91) is a primary leader in the group after it was upgraded by analysts at Bank of America's Merrill Lynch. Texas Instruments (TXN 23.95, +0.35) is also showing strength after the company announced it has added a penny to its quarterly dividend, which now totals $0.12 per share.

Meanwhile, the broader market continues to trade with modest gains as it attempts to make its way to fresh afternoon highs.DJ30 +51.24 NASDAQ +7.82 SP500 +3.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1337/1.75 bln/1288 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1613/1.04 bln/1339

1:00 pm : Stocks have spent the entire session in high volume, choppy trade. The listless action comes ahead of the S&P quarterly rebalancing and the quadruple witching options expiration and amid an absence of major earnings announcements and economic data.

There are a few pockets of relative strength, however. In particular, consumer staples stocks are up 1.0%, thanks to leadership from Procter & Gamble (PG 57.38, +1.85), which was upgraded by analysts at Citigroup. However, the lack of market weight behind the consumer staples sector has made it an unconvincing leader.

Energy stocks are this session's primary laggards, though the sector's decline has been contained to a 0.2% decline as integrated outfits (+0.2%) make gains following an upgrade of Chevron (CVX 72.98, +0.98) by analysts at Credit Suisse. The rest of the energy sector has been hampered by lower oil prices, which are currently down 0.6% to $72 per barrel.

Weakness in oil prices comes as the U.S. dollar catches a break. After falling to fresh 2009 lows in the previous session, the Dollar Index is up a strong 0.3%, which marks its best single-session percentage gain in two weeks.

Gold prices are also showing weakness in in the presence of the greenback's gain. The yellow metal is currently 0.4% lower at $1009 per ounce.DJ30 +47.16 NASDAQ +6.29 SP500 +3.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1313/1.63 bln/1298 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1594/992 mln/1321

12:30 pm : Financials and tech stocks make up many of this sessions most active names by trading volume. Leading the list is Citigroup (C 4.40, -0.02), immediately followed by E*Trade (ETFC 1.78, +0.08), which was actually upgraded by analysts at Goldman Sachs, according to Dow Jones. Bank of America (BAC 17.60, -0.01) and Huntington Bank (HBAN 4.36, -0.15) are also among the top 10 most actively traded stocks this weekend. Meanwhile, tech giants Microsoft (MSFT 25.30, +0.00), Cisco (CSCO 23.36, -0.03), Intel (INTC 19.45, +0.04), and Oracle (ORCL 21.79, +0.27) share space in the top 10 list.

While trading volume in the respective names is impressive, the performance of their respective sectors is lackluster as financials fall 0.4% and tech stocks trade flat.DJ30 +23.66 NASDAQ +0.21 SP500 +0.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1195/1.51 bln/1388 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1417/932 mln/1493

12:00 pm : Energy stocks have extended their decline so that they now trade with a 0.7% loss, worse than any other major sector. Weakness within the energy sector is primarily rooted in losses among oil and gas exploration stocks (-2.1%) and oil and gas drillers stocks (-2.2%), which have declined amid a 1.0% drop in oil prices to $71.75 per barrel.

Integrated oil companies (-0.3%) have limited their losses, however. The group's resistance to sellers comes amid support from Chevron (CVX 72.62, +0.65), which was upgraded by analysts at Credit Suisse.DJ30 +14.51 NASDAQ -2.06 SP500 -0.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1109/1.38 bln/1448 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1274/880 mln/1599

11:30 am : Action remains listless and choppy. Trading volume is exceptionally high, though. Yet that's the result of the quarterly S&P rebalancing and the quadruple witching of options expirations.

While the major headline indices continue holding on to modest gains, the mid-cap S&P 400 and small-cap Russell 2000 are both in negative ground. Mid-caps are currently down 0.4%, while small-caps are down 0.2%. Despite underperforming this session, they continue to sport superior year-to-date gains. Specifially, mid-caps are up 30% this year and small-caps are up 23% this year. The broad-based S&P 500 is up 18% year-to-date, while the blue chip Dow is up 12% this year.DJ30 +28.42 NASDAQ +1.49 SP500 +0.96 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1167/1.25 bln/1363 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1336/824 mln/1516

11:00 am : Trading has been choppy this morning. The directionless action comes amid a lack of concerted leadership.

Seven of the 10 major sectors are in positive ground. Energy (-0.2%), materials (-0.2%), and industrials (-0.1%) make up the decliners.

Consumer staples stocks remain the best performers. As a group, they are up 1.0%. However, the consumer staples sector accounts for less than 12% of the market weight of the S&P 500. That lack of influence over the broader market has left stocks to trade without any real leader, leaving the market to only modest gains.DJ30 +39.45 NASDAQ +1.30 SP500 +2.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1134/1.07 bln/1350 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1444/754 mln/1360

10:30 am : October crude traded in negative territory overnight, hitting session lows of $71.27 per barrel. Crude spiked into positive territory to session highs of $72.66 right after the open of pit trading, but has since reversed back into the red. Crude is currently 0.6% lower at $72.03 per barrel.

October natural gas traded in positive territory and remains there in current activity. Natural gas spiked along with crude at the open, hitting its own highs of $3.616 per MMBtu. Natural gas erased most of its gains, but is currently 1.9% higher at $3.523 per MMBtu.

The US Dollar Index continues to trade higher, which is adding selling pressure in the precious metals group.

Precious metals had a quiet overnight session and December gold traded near the unchanged line for most of the overnight session. Gold hit session highs of $1019.50 recently, but just moved back into negative territory and is currently 0.2% lower at $1011.40 per ounce, just above current lows of $1008. December silver traded just below the unchanged line for most of its overnight session. In recent activity, silver hit fresh lows of $17.03 per ounce and is currently 0.9% lower at $17.105 per ounce.DJ30 +28.34 NASDAQ -2.43 SP500 +0.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1008/868.0 mln/1405 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1276/664.0 mln/1465

10:00 am : This morning's choppy action has given way to increased selling pressure, but stocks are still in positive territory.

Weakness is most considerable among materials stocks, which are down 0.4%. Meanwhile, financials and industrials are also down -- both have shed 0.1%.

Consumer staples stocks are sporting an impressive 1.0% gain, however. The sector is being led by Procter & Gamble (PG 57.09, +1.56) after it was upgraded by analysts at Citigroup.

Early movers: Trading up -- BPFH +27.1%, IOC +17%, HEAT +12.1%, MCRI +11.5%, CLFD +11.2%, EROC +10.1%, SXCI +9%, PIR +7.9%, OMEX +7.8%, UFI +7.8%, ZUMZ +7.3%; Trading down -- ARNA -11.8%, NMM -9.7%, FSP -9.5%, SPDE -8.3%, CLUB -7.9%, SCLN -6.4%, EDR -6%, TDSC -5.9%, DVR -5.8%DJ30 +29.33 NASDAQ +3.31 SP500 +2.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1095/643 mln/1219 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1364/581 mln/1326

09:45 am : The session started with strong, broad-based gains, such that all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 were in the green. However, stocks are starting to slip off of their opening levels, leaving financials (-0.1%) and materials stocks (-0.1%) to trade with losses.

The solid start and subsequent slip action is similar to what had happened in each of the two previous sessions. Many market analysts point to the quarterly rebalancing of the S&P and quadruple witching options expirations as reasons for the relative volatility.DJ30 +49.88 NASDAQ +6.08 SP500 +4.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1246/496 mln/996 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1640/525 mln/969

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.50. Stock futures are gaining a bit of upward momentum, which suggests that the major indices will start the session in higher ground. An upward move would help the S&P 500 build on its current 2.2% week-to-date gain and help stocks return to the 2009 intraday highs that were registered in the previous session. Though there aren't any immediate items to account for this morning's positive tone, the buying interest comes amid the stock market's bullish bias, which has kept any pullbacks short and shallow. As such, the stock market has logged only two losses in the past 10 sessions. During that streak, stocks have gained more than 7%. Despite the upward trend for stocks, trading could turn volatile this session, due to the quarterly rebalancing of the S&P and quadruple witching options expiration. Those events could also induce high trading volume among the major indices.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.30. The U.S. dollar continues to show early strength, which has the Dollar Index up 0.3% after it fell to fresh 2009 lows in the previous session. Its gain this morning marks only the second advance for the Dollar Index in 11 sessions. Despite a stronger greenback, gold prices are up 0.3% to $1015.60 per ounce. Gold prices are up nearly 15% this year and recently logged record closing highs. As for oil, prices for crude futures are currently down 0.6% to $72.00 per barrel. Still, oil prices are up more than 60% year-to-date. The impressive gains by gold and oil this year come as global participants continue to shun the U.S. dollar and rally around the recovery trade.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.80. U.S. stock futures have garnered some modest buying interest after trading with little direction. European stocks are generally flat, though. As such, Germany's DAX is down just 0.1%. BASF is a primary leader in the German bourse, but its strength is being offset by weakness in Deutsche Bank (DB). Shares of DB were actually upgraded recently by analysts at ING Group. Meanwhile, France's CAC is down 0.1%, even though its declining issues have a 2-to-1 edge over its advancers. In Britain, the FTSE is up 0.1%. The British benchmark is benefiting from strength in pharmaceutical shares of GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and AstraZeneca (AZN). Global banking giant HSBC (HBC) is also providing support. In economic data, The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.K. government borrowed a net 16.1 billion pounds ($26.5 billion) in August, according to The Wall Street Journal. The borrowed sum was more than expected and marked the third highest month of borrowing since monthly records began in 1993. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.4%, but Japan's Nikkei fell 0.7%. Aiful faltered after it said it is trying to postpone $3 billion in debt repayment. However, large banks like Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MTU) gained in late trade, buoyed by short-covering. Shares of many financials had slid earlier in the week amid worries regarding financial policy under a new government. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng also fell 0.7%. Financials remained in focus with Bank of China Hong Kong dropping sharply following a 13-month high in the previous session. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed a much sharper 3.2% lower. Its drop was led lower by steel stocks.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.00. Following the stock market's first down session of the week, stock futures are flat this morning. The insipidity comes amid a lack of corporate news items and economic data. Despite the lack of news-related catalysts, stocks could still high trading volume and even added volatility given the quarterly rebalancing of the S&P and quadruple witching options expiration. Separately, the U.S. dollar is showing signs of strength this morning. That has the Dollar Index up 0.3%, but commodities futures are mixed in electronic trade.

06:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.80.

06:30 am : Nikkei...10370.54...-73.30...-0.70%. Hang Seng...21623.45...-145.10...-0.70%.

06:30 am : FTSE...5176.75...+12.80...+0.30%. DAX...5738.56...+7.50...+0.10%.

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