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 Post subject: September 17th Thursday 2009 Emini ES ($ES_F) points +18.75
PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2009 2:17 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=304

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Light trading today for me and I followed the trading plan to ensure I was profitable for the day within a few trades without trying anything new et cetera. As stated earlier for the this week of trading.

Will update this further later in the evening when I have more time to talk about trading today in the Emini ES ($ES_F).


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their interest in trade signals while ignoring the impact of their trading habits/routine or personal lifestyle. If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +18.75 Emini ES ($ES_F) points

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Stocks Take A Tiny Step Back
Investors get cold feet after pushing the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq to the highest levels in nearly a year.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: September 17, 2009: 6:14 PM ET

NEW YORK�(CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks ended modestly lower Thursday as investors struggled to balance hopes for an economic recovery with fears that equities have surged too far, too fast.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 8 points, or 0.1% after ending the previous session at its highest point since last Oct. 6.

The S&P 500 (SPX) index fell about 3 points, or 0.3%, after ending the previous session at its highest point since Oct. 3 of last year. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 6 points, or 0.3%, after closing at its highest point since last Sept. 26.

The three major indexes have ended higher in 8 of the last 10 sessions.

U.S. stocks surged to almost one-year highs Wednesday on continued optimism about the economy. Thursday brought new reports supporting hopes that a recovery is underway, but the response from investors was more muted as worries persist that the stock rally has outpaced the recovery.

By afternoon, investors were ditching some of the biggest gainers from the last few weeks, including financials, commodities and big industrial names.

Big Dow losers included Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500), General Electric (GE, Fortune 500), American Express (AXP, Fortune 500), Travelers (TRV, Fortune 500) and Verizon Communications (VZ, Fortune 500).

Stocks have surged over the last six months as investors have welcomed a rash of improving economic news and an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus. Since bottoming at a 12-year low in March, the Dow industrials have gained just shy of 50% and the S&P 500 has gained 58%, as of Wednesday's close. Since bottoming at a six-year low, the Nasdaq has gained 68%.

However, the continuing gains could be a cause for concern.

"This is a playable market rally within a long-term poor economy and bear market," said Robert Loest, portfolio manager at Integrity Funds. "This is not in my view the beginning of a long-term sustainable bull market."

Trading could be volatile and volume could be higher through the quarterly options expiration Friday. On Friday, stock index futures and options, and individual stock futures and options all expire at the same time.

Economy: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment fell last week to 545,000 from a revised 557,000 in the previous week, the Labor Department reported Thursday morning. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com forecast that claims would rise modestly.

Continuing claims, a measure of Americans who have been filing claims for unemployment for a week or more, rose to 6.23 million versus forecasts for a rise to 6.1 million.

A rise in apartment construction helped push August housing starts to the highest point in roughly nine months, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

Starts rose 1.5% to an annual unit rate of 598,000 from a revised 589,000 in July, the government said. That was in line with economists' forecasts.

Building permits, a measure of builder confidence, rose 2.7% to 579,000 from a revised 564,000 in July.

The Philadelphia Fed index rose to a 27-month high in September, adding to other evidence that the manufacturing sector is recovering. The index, a regional read on manufacturing, rose to 14.1 in September from 4.2 previously. Economists thought it would rise to 8, on average.

Corporate news: FedEx (FDX, Fortune 500) said fiscal first-quarter earnings fell 53% from a year ago, meeting the forecast it issued last week. The package delivery firm reported weaker earnings that met forecasts on lower revenue that was shy of expectations. Shares fell 2.2% Thursday.

Oracle (ORCL, Fortune 500) reported weaker quarterly revenue that missed forecasts late Wednesday. The software maker also reported higher quarterly earnings of 30 cents per share that were in line with forecasts. Shares fell 2.8%.

American Airlines parent AMR (AMR, Fortune 500) said it raised $2.9 billion, including cash and financing. The airline also said it will shift some flights to more profitable hubs such as Chicago and New York and away from St. Louis and other places. Shares rose almost 20%.

Currency and commodities: The dollar hit a fresh 9-month low against the euro and bounced after hitting a 7-month low against the yen.

The falling greenback has been lifting dollar-traded commodities including oil and gold lately, but prices were muted Thursday.

U.S. light crude oil for October delivery fell 4 cents to settle at $72.47 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. COMEX gold for December delivery fell $6.70 to $1,013.50 an ounce after settling Wednesday at a record high of $1,020.20.

Bonds: Treasury prices gained, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.40% from 3.46% Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

World markets: Global markets rallied. In Europe, London's FTSE 100, France's CAC 40 and Germany's DAX all gained. Asian markets surged, with Japan's Nikkei adding 1.7% after the Bank of Japan raised its economic forecast.

Market breadth was mixed. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers topped winners by eight to seven on volume of 1.52 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers and decliners were narrowly mixed on volume of 2.65 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Participants sold the news of a better-than-expected batch of economic reports and handed stocks their first loss in four sessions. Losses were rather contained, though, as stocks are still up more than 2% week-to-date.

Despite stumbling a bit in the moments following the opening bell, stocks looked as if they were going to extend their recent gains. That is until the Philadelphia Fed Index for September showed that it hit a two-year high of 14.1, which was better than expected. Rather than provide fodder for further buying, the data prompted selling pressure as participants looked to lock in profits after they had watched stocks advance in eight of the previous nine sessions.

The better-than-expected Philly Fed Index complemented several other upbeat economic reports, including housing starts and building permits data for August. Housing starts hit an annualized rate of 598,000, which was spot on with the consensus forecast. More impressive was that the August rate marked the best pace since November 2008. Building permits came in at an annualized rate of 579,000, which is just below the rate of 583,000 that was widely expected, but it still marked the best pace this year.

In other economic news, initial jobless claims for the week ending Sept. 12 totaled 545,000. Though that marks an uncomfortable level of claims, it wasn't as bad as the 557,000 initial claims that were expected. It also marked a drop of 12,000 from the previous week. Meanwhile, continuing claims climbed to 6.23 million from 6.10 million, even in the face of expiring jobless benefits. According to a Reuters report, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said that unemployment in the U.S. will peak in early 2011 because of a slow and painful recovery from the global economic crisis.

With most participants partial to selling, the stock market wasn't able to sustain a couple of bounces in the first half of the session. In turn, stocks spent the second half of the session chopping along in negative territory.

There wasn't a single major sector that was able to post a gain. Telecom fell 1.3% to log the weakest performance for the second straight session. Health care finished flat; it was the best performing sector.

Tech giant Oracle (ORCL 21.52, -0.61) was among the most active names by trading volume this session. The company posted in-line earnings results and issued an in-line earnings forecast last evening. However, shareholders were displeased with the company's top line since it suggested that demand remains relatively weak.

Global delivery outfit FedEx (FDX 76.46, -1.74) was also out with its latest earnings results, but the numbers didn't cause any surprise since the company had already made an announcement last week.

Overall trading volume came on the NYSE came in near 1.5 billion shares for the third straight session. The high volume comes ahead of tomorrow's quadruple witching and quarterly S&P rebalance. Those events could induce added volatility. DJ30 -4.79 NASDAQ -6.40 NQ100 -0.2% R2K -0.3% SP400 -0.6% SP500 -3.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1324/2.64 bln/1366 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1338/1.52 bln/1704

3:35 pm : The major averages are trading near the unchanged level. The Dow continues to outperform the two other major indices as Industrials are the only sector to show an appreciable gain.

Commodities opened the session lower as the dollar index was at session highs. The dollar index fell for most of the morning, but fought back into positive territory as the afternoon pit session concluded.

As a result, precious metals closed modestly lower. December gold futures closed the session down 0.6% at $1013.50 per ounce and December silver futures closed the session down 1.0% at $17.27 per ounce.

Following a slightly lower-than-expected build in natural gas inventories this morning, natural gas futures spiked into positive territory and hit a session high of $3.90 per contract. These gains were short-lived, however. Within 15 minutes, the futures broke back below the unchanged level at $3.76 per contract. Selling pressure was unrelenting for the rest of the session. The October futures closed the session down 7.7% at $3.47 per contract.

Crude oil futures also opened the session lower. As the dollar gave up its gains, the crude oil futures found momentum and broke the unchanged level. They chopped around the flat line for the rest of the session and closed down fractionally at $72.44 per barrel.DJ30 +12.84 NASDAQ -2.21 SP500 -0.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1339/2.27 bln/1341 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1387/1.14 bln/1624

3:00 pm : The Dow recently poked back into positive territory, but the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are struggling to match that feat. The broader market has been hampered by the fact that declining issues outnumber advancers by 2-to-1 in the S&P 500.DJ30 +3.62 NASDAQ -3.09 SP500 -1.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1312/2.08 bln/1331 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1387/1.05 bln/1605

2:30 pm : Gold prices have eased off of the record closing highs of $1020 per ounce that were registered in the previous session. They are currently down 0.3% to $1016 per ounce, but the toll of that pullback has been much more considerable on gold stocks.

Gold stocks like Newmont Mining (NEM 45.62, -1.50), Iamgold (IAG 14.93, -0.76), and Yamana Gold (AUY 11.10, -0.28) are each down more than 2%. However, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD 99.57, -0.34) has managed to limit its losses.DJ30 -10.58 NASDAQ -7.99 SP500 -3.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1221/1.93 bln/1416 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1322/973 mln/1690

2:00 pm : Though they remain in negative territory, stocks are putting together an upward push.

Oil prices have also made an upward push, but unlike stocks oil has successfully made its way into positive territory. Oil prices are currently up 0.1% to $72.60 per barrel. That hasn't done much to help energy stocks recover to higher ground, however. The energy sector is currently down 0.5%.DJ30 -5.29 NASDAQ -6.50 SP500 -2.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1182/1.79 bln/1429 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1261/906 mln/1714

1:30 pm : Stocks have moved another leg lower so that the S&P 500 now trades just above the 1060 level. All 10 of its major sectors are in the red -- losses are steepest among materials stocks, which are down 1.0%, as a group.

Amid the downturn by equities, Treasuries have garnered support. That has helped the benchmark 10-year Note climb to a gain of 21 ticks. In turn, its yield has moved back below 3.4%.DJ30 -39.23 NASDAQ -14.62 SP500 -7.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1125/1.67 bln/1462 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1153/849 mln/1810

1:00 pm : Stocks have spent the entire session oscillating between a gain of 0.5% and a loss of 0.6% on high volume as participants take action ahead of the quadruple witching and quarterly S&P rebalance tomorrow. The lack of direction in the broader market stems from a lack of leadership.

Financials had been showing strength in the early going, despite starting the session with a modest loss. Financials were up as much as 1%, but that has since turned into a 0.8% loss.

Though stocks are currently near session lows, buyers have been showing a willingness to step in and provide support at the dips, the first of which came as participants pressured stocks after receiving a better-than-expected Philadelphia Fed Index for September.

In other economic news, housing starts and building permits for August were both up to their best levels of the year and were generally in-line with expectations. Jobless claims remain uncomfortably high, but initial claims weren't as bad as expected. Continuing claims were higher than expected, though.

Participants were also given a couple of trading catalysts by way of quarterly announcements from Oracle (ORCL 21.60, -0.53) and FedEx (FDX 75.78, -2.42). Both posted in-line earnings results and issued in-line earnings forecasts. However, shares of ORCL have been pressured since the company's top line fell and missed expectations, suggesting demand remains weak, while the news from FedEx reflected what the company had already issued in an update last week.DJ30 -33.11 NASDAQ -13.00 SP500 -6.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1144/1.52 bln/1434 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1187/777 mln/1750

12:30 pm : The major indices have descended to fresh session lows, taking eight of the 10 major sectors into the red -- consumer staples are holding on to a 0.2% gain, while financials are up fractionally.

Commodities are also under a bit of selling pressure, which has the CRB Commodity Index down 0.5%. The weakness among commodities comes even as the U.S. dollar continues to dwindle and take the Dollar Index to new lows for 2009. The Dollar Index is just above its 52-week low of 75.9.DJ30 +0.46 NASDAQ -4.63 SP500 -1.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1284/1.36 bln/1297 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1423/703 mln/1499

12:00 pm : Stocks have slipped back to the neutral line. The downward move has been rather broad-based, but financials (+0.5%) and materials (+0.4%) are holding on to solid gains.

Airline stocks continue to fare well. Following news that AMR (AMR 8.58, +1.23) received $2.9 billion in additional liquidity and new aircraft financing, the Amex Airline Index is up 2.7%. Week-to-date, the Amex Airline Index is up more than 11%.DJ30 +10.27 NASDAQ -0.65 SP500 -0.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1407/1.19 bln/1158 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1565/612 mln/1358

11:30 am : Financial stocks are sporting some impressive gains for the second straight session, but this time around diversified banks (-0.3%), regional banks (-0.3%), and multiline insurers (-0.1%) are sitting out. In their place, diversified financial services stocks (+2.4%) are providing the broader financial sector with leadership. That has favored the likes of Bank of America (BAC 17.71, +0.46) and Citigroup (C 4.51, +0.32). Overall, financials are up 1.0%, more than any other major sector.DJ30 +40.50 NASDAQ +6.22 SP500 +4.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1525/1.01 bln/984 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1799/529 mln/1089

11:00 am : Stocks initially extended their morning gains following the release of the Philadelphia Fed Index, which was better than expected, but participants quickly moved to sell the news and send stocks back into negative territory. However, the dip brought in enough buyers to help stocks hold earlier lows and make their way back into positive ground.

Despite the broader market's rebound, telecom stocks are showing weakness. The sector is currently down 1.0%, worse than any other major sector. This marks the second straight session that telecom has underperformed; the sector has lost nearly 2% since the close of trading on Tuesday.DJ30 +31.51 NASDAQ +3.61 SP500 +2.67 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1449/871 mln/1044 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1725/453 mln/1104

10:30 am : December crude oil traded around the unchanged line overnight, lost steam and put in morning lows of $71.66 minutes after the open. However, crude bounced off those lows into positive territory and to new highs of $73.16, but is now back near the unchanged line again, currently up 0.01% at $72.60 per barrel.

December natural has pulled back a little from yesterday's significant move to the upside. Natural gas traded just under the unchanged line for most of its overnight session and fell notably just ahead of the open of pit trading, putting in morning lows of $3.625. Ahead of this morning's inventory data, natural gas was trading 2% lower at $3.686 per MMBtu. Following the data, which showed a build of 66 bcf vs. analyst expectations of a build of 78 bcf, natural gas rallied into positive territory, currently up 1.5% at $3.81 per MMBtu.

The US Dollar Index is back into negative territory, pushing precious metals back near the unchanged line. December gold is down $0.60 currently at $1019.60 per ounce, while December silver is 0.3% higher at $17.485 per ounce.DJ30 -1.36 NASDAQ -3.26 SP500 -1.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1288/642.6 mln/1135 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1457/345.5 mln/1334

10:00 am : Stocks have rebounded solidly since slipping in the first few minutes of trade. The upward move has taken all 10 major sectors into the green with the sharpest moves being made by financials (+0.7%) and materials (+1.0%).

Gains are also being helped along by a better-than-expected Philadelphia Fed Index, which came in at 14.1.

Early movers: Trading up -- SPDE +102.8%, XNPT +24.4%, IVAN +23.5%, AMR +21%, CERS +12.4%, SEED +11.3%, QELP +9.3%, DAC +8.8%, LCC +8.7%, SPR +8.5%, SSW +8.3%, PIR +7.6%, SOLF +7.4%; Trading down -- EXK -9.7%, FNET -9.6%, HW -9%, EK -8.4%, UWBK -7.9%, SNV -7.7%, MLHR -7.2%, CKR -6.4%DJ30 +40.66 NASDAQ +2.59 SP500 +3.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1335/352 mln/978 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1720/216 mln/975

09:45 am : Stocks had been slipping in the first few minutes of action, but are now paring their losses. The major indices are now mixed.

This morning's mixed action comes as financial stocks falter. The financial sector was a primary leader in the previous session as it spiked nearly 3% amid strength in bank stocks and shares of multiline insurers. The sector is currently down 0.3%.

Tech stocks are also under a bit of pressure. The sector is also down 0.3% as Oracle (ORCL 21.51, -0.62) slips after posting in-line earnings that were helped in the margin amid falling revenue.DJ30 +3.85 NASDAQ -4.67 SP500 -0.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1158/214 mln/1075 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1310/150 mln/1298

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.30. Despite considerable strength in the previous session, which culminated in new 2009 highs for the major equity averages, stocks aren't seeing much momentum carry over into this morning's trading. Instead, stock futures suggest that the major indices will open with a loss. The less-than-impressive tone comes even though housing starts and building permits for August were both up and generally in-line with expectations, while weekly initial jobless claims weren't as bad as expected. Continuing claims did climb more than expected, though. Earnings haven't done much to help the early tone, even though both Oracle (ORCL) and FedEx (FDX) posted in-line results and issued in-line forecasts. The reaction to the FedEx announcement has been relatively limited since the company initially issued an update last week. Notably, markets could see some heightened trading volume and encounter some added volatility ahead of tomorrow's quadruple witching and the quarterly rebalance of the S&P.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.50. U.S. stock futures have fallen to a bit of selling pressure, but foreign markets are making gains. As such, Britain's FTSE is up 0.5%, led by banking and commodity stocks. British Airways also showed strength after analysts at Goldman Sachs added the stock to its pan-European Conviction Buy List and raised the airline's price target. Separately, British retail sales were flat in August. In Germany, the DAX is up 0.3%. E.ON has gained following news that the utility is looking into a possible acquisition of Oxxio. Meanwhile, Volkswagen is considering an organizational overhaul of its truck business, according to Financial Times. In France, the CAC is up 0.3%. EADS, the owner of Airbus SAS, has gained following an upgrade by analysts at Morgan Stanley. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.2% and Japan's Nikkei added 1.7%. Nippon Steel rallied 4.1% after it said it will reopen a furnace. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MTU) fell, however, following comments from the new minister for banking and market regulation. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady at 0.1%, as expected, and upgraded its view on the economy. However, the central bank continues to see downside risk to the economy and is expected to keep rates at 0.1% until 2011. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng climbed 1.7% to a high for this year. Banks continued to lead gains. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite spiked 2.0%.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.00. Stock futures are gyrating in the wake of news that housing starts for August hit an annualized rate of 598,000, which is spot on with the consensus forecast and the best rate of sales since November 2008. The previous month's data was revised upward to reflect an annual rate of 589,000. Meanwhile, building permits for August hit an annualized rate of 579,000, which is just below the rate of 583,000 that was widely expected. Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ending September 12 totaled 545,000, which is below the 557,000 initial claims that were expected and down from the 557,000 initial claims that were registered in the previous week. Continuing claims climbed to 6.23 million from 6.10 million. They were expected to hold steady at 6.10 million.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.50. Broad market stock futures suggest that the strong, upward momentum seen in the previous session has slowed so that stocks head toward a flat start for Thursday's session. However, shares of Oracle (ORCL) are down some 3% in premarket trading, after the company announced last evening that earnings for its first fiscal quarter came in at $0.30 per share, which was in-line with the consensus. During its conference call the company forecast fiscal 2010 earnings from $0.35 to $0.36 per share, which is on par with the current consensus forecast of $0.36 per share. FedEx (FDX) unveiled its latest earnings results this morning. The company generated $0.58 per share, which is in-line with the consensus estimate. The in-line results come after the company had announced last week that it would bring in $0.58 per share for the quarter. FedEx also reaffirmed that it expects second quarter earnings to range from $0.65 to $0.95, which brackets the $0.83 per share consensus estimate. Shares of FDX are down roughly 0.6% to $77.75 per share ahead of the opening bell. Housing start and building permit data for August are due at the bottom of the hour, along with weekly jobless claims.

06:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.00.

06:33 am : Nikkei...10443.80...+173.00...+1.70%. Hang Seng...21768.51...+365.60...+1.70%.

06:33 am : FTSE...5165.62...+41.50...+0.80%. DAX...5730.44...+30.20...+0.50%.

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