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 Post subject: September 16th Wednesday 2009 Emini ES ($ES_F) points +9.75
PostPosted: Wed Sep 16, 2009 4:36 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 1:06 pm
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Location: Canada

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @

As stated earlier for the this week of trading...I have a lot of personal errands to do and that results in only a small amount of time put aside for trading. Today I got in about 2 hours of trading but not all at the same time. Simply, I missed most of the trading day even though I new there was a strong probability for a BIG TREND day sometime this week (see yesterday's #FuturesTrades commentary).

With that said, the Emini ES ($ES_F) wasn't difficult and the WRB S/R Zones were obvious to help confirm any trade signals or used as profit targets

FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.


In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their interest in trade signals while ignoring the impact of their trading habits/routine or personal lifestyle. If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +9.75 Emini ES ($ES_F) points


Stocks Spike To 1-Year Highs
Economic optimism helps Wall Street extend gains, with the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P hitting the highest points since fall '08.
By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
Last Updated: September 16, 2009: 4:11 PM ET

NEW YORK�( -- Stocks gained Wednesday, pushing Wall Street to its highest level in a year, with a rise in industrial production and a spike in commodity prices and equities fueling the advance.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 108 points or 1.1%, according to early tallies, closing at the highest point since Oct. 6, 2008. The S&P 500 (SPX) index rose 14 points or 1.4% and closed at its highest point since Oct. 3 of last year. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 27 points or 1.3% and was on track to close at its highest point since Sept. 26, 2008.

Stocks ended Tuesday's session at the highest point in nearly a year after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the recession is very likely over although the job market will still struggle. The upbeat economic sentiment stretched over into Wednesday's session and was helped along by the day's economic news.

The combination of improving economic news and fiscal and monetary stimulus has helped boost stocks over the last six months. Since bottoming at a 12-year low in March, the Dow has gained 47% and the S&P 500 has gained 55%. Since bottoming at a 6-year low, the Nasdaq has gained 65%.

With the exception of a 7% pullback in late June and early July that preceded the start of the second-quarter financial reporting period, the market has essentially been on the upswing for months, with occasional sideways lulls.

Despite worries that the rally has outpaced the economic recovery, the market "just doesn't seem to want to fall," said Gary Flam, portfolio manager at Bel Air Investment Advisors.

"In April and May the market was rallying despite a lack of good economic news," Flam said. "Now that you are getting better news, including Bernanke's comments yesterday [Tuesday], it's hard for investors to sit on the sidelines."

He said that while the market seems to be avoiding the widely-predicted back-to-school selloff, it could hit resistance in November when a number of the government stimulus programs peter out.

Stock gains Wednesday were broad based, with 24 of 30 Dow components rising, led by General Electric (GE, Fortune 500), Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), 3M (MMM, Fortune 500), McDonald's (MCD, Fortune 500), Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500).

The Dow's financial shares gained too, with American Express (AXP, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Travelers (TRV, Fortune 500) all advancing.

A variety of bank shares rallied, with the KBW Bank (BKX) index rising 4%.

Tuesday was the one-year anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers and 11th-hour buyout of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America. In the year since then, the major indexes have seesawed violently, but are currently just below those 2008 levels.

Economy: Industrial production gained 0.8% in August after rising 1% in the previous month. Economists surveyed by thought it would rise 0.6%. Capacity utilization rose to 69.6% from a revised 69% previously. Economists expected no change.

The Consumer Price index (CPI), a measure of consumer inflation, rose 0.4% in August versus forecasts for a rise of 0.3%. There was no change the previous month. So-called core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.1% after rising 0.1% in the previous month.

Company news: Verizon Communications (VZ, Fortune 500) slipped 1.9% after UBS downgraded it to "neutral" from "buy," according to published reports.

Adobe (ADBE) shares fell 6% after the software maker said late Tuesday it was buying e-commerce firm Omniture (OMTR) for about $1.8 billion.

Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD), the maker of Bud beer, began trading Wednesday on the New York Stock Exchange 10 months after it was bought by Belgian brewer InBev. Shares gained 2%.

Currency and commodities: The dollar fell versus other major currencies, extending the recent decline. The dollar fell to a 9-month low against the euro and a 7-month low against the yen.

The falling greenback boosted dollar-traded commodities including oil and gold.

U.S. light crude oil for October delivery rose $1.58 to $72.51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In addition to the impact from the weak dollar, crude oil prices were also reacting to the government's weekly inventories report, which showed crude supplies fell more than expected in the latest week.

COMEX gold for December delivery rose $13.90 to settle at $1020.20 an ounce, a record high.

Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.43% from 3.45% late Tuesday.

Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

World markets: Global markets rallied. In Europe, London's FTSE 100, France's CAC 40 and Germany's DAX all gained at least 1%. Asian markets ended higher.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers by over four to one on volume of 880 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by over two to one on volume of 1.70 billion shares.

Volume was higher than in recent days, in part because of the impact of the quarterly options expiration Friday. On Friday, stock index futures and options, and individual stock futures and options all expire at the same time. That can create volatility in the days leading up to the expiration and the day of the expiration.


Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Continued buying helped the stock market march higher for the third straight session. More impressive was that steady momentum helped stocks close the session at new highs for the year.

The latest leg of the stock market's run came with broad-based support and gave the S&P 500 its best single-session gain in nearly one month.

Strength was most pronounced in the financial sector, which settled 3.4% higher. Multiline insurers (+5.9%), diversified banks (+3.1%), and regional banks (+4.9%) were the sector's standouts. Several widely-held financial companies attempted to win support for their shares by expressing expectations for their business and the financial industry at professional conferences.

Despite the impressive closing prices, stocks actually slipped in the first few minutes of trading. However, buyers quickly stepped in as stocks hit the unchanged mark after retreating from opening levels.

Initial gains were helped along by rallying overseas markets, which helped the Dow Jones World Index, excluding the U.S., advance 2.0%, its best single-session percentage advance in more than one month. The upbeat tone was kept intact by some generally solid economic reports, including an August Consumer Price Index that showed a 0.4% month-over-month increase, which was a tad higher than the expected 0.3% increase. Core consumer prices for August increased 0.1% month-over-month, but that was spot on with the consensus forecast. CPI data for August was much more tame than the August PPI data that were released yesterday. Meanwhile, industrial production for August climbed 0.8%, which exceeded the 0.6% increase that had been widely expected. Capacity utilization for August came in at 69.6%, which was slightly above the 69.0% that was widely expected.

Participants showed continued favor for commodities, which helped the CRB Commodity Index advance 1.8% as gold prices settled 1.4% higher at $1020.20 per ounce and silver prices climbed 2.5% to a new 12-month high of $17.43 per ounce. Oil prices jumped 2.2% to $72.51 per barrel. Not to be outdone, natural gas prices settled 12.2% higher at $3.77 per contract. Natural gas prices are now up more than 55% from the 7-year lows that were set earlier this month.

Adobe (ADBE 33.35, -2.27) was one of the few companies to recently announce quarterly earnings results. The company posted better-than-expected third quarter earnings of $0.35 per share and issued in-line guidance for the fourth quarter, calling for earnings from $0.33 to $0.39 per share. The company announced that it will acquire Omniture (OMTR 21.88 +4.56) for $21.50 per share in cash, which values the deal at $1.8 billion. Though participants pushed against shares of ADBE, large-cap tech still gained 1.4%, based on the Nasdaq 100.

In the face of strong buying in stocks and commodities Treasuries managed to limit losses. The benchmark 10-year Note finished a modest four ticks lower. It had spent part of the session in positive territory. DJ30 +108.30 NASDAQ +30.51 NQ100 +1.4% R2K +2.1% SP400 +2.0% SP500 +16.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1899/2.76 bln/792 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2543/1.58 bln/513

3:30 pm : Commodities put together another impressive run this session, resulting in a 1.8% gain for the CRB Commodity Index. Week-to-date, the CRB is up 4.7%, which marks its best three-session advance since August.

Gold continues to shine in the eye of traders. Prices for the yellow metal settled 1.4% higher at $1020.20 per ounce, which marks a new record closing high. Silver prices made their way to their best levels in more than one year by hitting $17.43 per ounce, up 2.5%.

As for energy-based commodities, oil prices jumped 2.2% to $72.51 per barrel, while natural gas prices finished the session 12.2% higher at $3.77 per contract. Natural gas prices are now up more than 55% from the 7-year lows that were set earlier this month.DJ30 +96.36 NASDAQ +27.38 SP500 +14.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1817/2.31 bln/870 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2441/1.19 bln/591

3:00 pm : Stocks remain confined to a relatively narrow trading range as they enter the final hour of this session. Gains continue to be strong and broad-based, and while the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is up handsomely, it is trailing the other headline indices by a slight margin.

Meanwhile, participants have shown a particular interest in riskier issues. That has favored small-cap stocks and mid-cap stocks, which are both up 1.7%, based on the Russell 2000 and the S&P 400, respectively.DJ30 +85.09 NASDAQ +21.34 SP500 +13.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1809/2.14 bln/878 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2392/1.09 bln/642

2:30 pm : Stocks are largely unchanged from earlier levels as they enter a relatively narrow trading range.

Meanwhile, transportation stocks are trading with relative weakness. As such, the Dow Jones Transportation Index is down 0.3%. Rail services stocks CSX (CSX 45.18, -1.62) and Norfolk Southern (NSC 47.26, -1.51) are creating the most drag on the transportation index.

Contrasting with weakness among rail stocks, the Baltic Dry Index advanced 1.2% on Wednesday.DJ30 +101.27 NASDAQ +27.36 SP500 +14.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1823/1.98 bln/832 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2465/1.00 bln/553

2:00 pm : Gains remain heady as the stock market takes a bit of a rest at session highs. Six of the 10 major sectors are sporting gains of 1% or more; defensive-oriented sectors continue to lag.DJ30 +98.92 NASDAQ +25.63 SP500 +13.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1808/1.81 bln/834 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2440/916 mln/563

1:30 pm : All three major indices have extended this session's steady march to fresh session highs. Nine of the 10 major sectors are in positive territory.

Financials are now up 3.3%, still more than any other major sector. The advance makes for the financial sector's best single-session percentage gain in more than one month.

Despite the strength of the broader market, telecom stocks continue to struggle with considerable weakness. Though it is off its low, the telecom sector is still down 0.9%.

Treasuries are faring relatively well in the face of strong gains by the stock market. The benchmark 10-year Note is currently up six ticks.

Trading volume is impressive, thus far, as nearly 850 million shares have already traded hands on the NYSE.DJ30 +107.09 NASDAQ +26.97 SP500 +14.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1803/1.65 bln/823 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2464/840 mln/518

1:00 pm : Stocks looked as if they were headed for negative territory in the first few minutes of trading, but the major averages found support at the neutral line and then built enough upward momentum to reach new highs for 2009.

Strength this session has been broad-based as nearly 80% of the S&P 500 components push higher. Financials have been the best performers, thus far.

The financial sector is up 2.8% as bank stocks spike and provide leadership to many names that had actually lagged in the early going. Strength among bank stocks comes in the wake of a series of financial conferences. News that the Fed is looking into commercial real estate exposure within the largest U.S. regional banks and that the Fed will immediately begin a consumer compliance supervision program in nonbank subsidiaries of bank holding companies hasn't undermined their advance.

A few solid economic reports were out this morning, helping to keep the stock market's bullish momentum intact. Among the reports, the August Consumer Price Index increased slightly more than expected, but the increase in core prices was spot on with the consensus forecast. Both showed softer inflationary pressures than the PPI data for August, which was released yesterday. Meanwhile, industrial production climbed more than expected in August and capacity utilization brought little surprise as it remained just below 70%.DJ30 +68.62 NASDAQ +19.83 SP500 +11.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1715/1.49 bln/896 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2359/770 mln/612

12:30 pm : The S&P 500 has slowed its ascent upon reaching the 1065 level, which hasn't been seen since early October 2008. Perhaps more impressive is that stocks are now up 60% from the bear market lows that were reached this past March.

Buying this session hasn't been limited to equities; even commodities are garnering support. As such, the CRB Commodity Index is up 0.5% as gold prices climb 1.4% higher toward $1019 per ounce and oil prices advance 1.2% to $71.80 per barrel.DJ30 +75.50 NASDAQ +22.19 SP500 +11.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1718/1.32 bln/870 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2392/698 mln/569

12:00 pm : Following a short breather, stocks are making another run higher, registering fresh 2009 highs each step of the way.

Financials continue to underpin the move as they benefit from plenty of momentum buying. The sector is now up 2.7% as multiline insurers ascend 5.7% and regional banks climb 4.8%. Strength among regional bank stocks comes amid news from CNBC that the Fed is conducting a review of commercial real estate exposure at the largest regional banks.DJ30 +62.80 NASDAQ +17.54 SP500 +10.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1659/1.12 bln/891 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2340/620 mln/609

11:30 am : The stock market has eased back since making its way to session highs within the past hour. Despite the broader market's move lower, financial stocks have managed to extend their advance to a 1.9% gain -- insurers Genworth Financial (GNW 12.93, +0.88) and Hartford (HIG 27.14, +1.70) are primary leaders in the sector.

Meanwhile, telecom stocks have extended their losses. The sector is now at session lows with a 1.5% loss. Dow component Verizon (VZ 30.16, -0.84) is a primary laggard in the sector. The stock was downgraded by analysts at UBS.DJ30 +29.77 NASDAQ +8.97 SP500 +6.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1537/941 mln/985 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2169/533 mln/742

11:00 am : After stumbling in the first few minutes of trade, stocks have rebounded to fresh highs for the session. The bounce has been strong enough to take stocks past the previous session's intraday highs, which means that the major indices are now at their best levels of the year.

The upward move has been broad-based, but the best gains are being seen among energy (+1.7%) and financials (+1.6%). Defensive-oriented stocks are lagging for the second straight session. As such, consumer staples stocks and health care stocks are unchanged, while telecom stocks are down 1.2%.DJ30 +38.24 NASDAQ +9.97 SP500 +6.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1523/746 mln/924 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2116/440 mln/730

10:30 am : October crude oil traded lower for most of the overnight session. At the open of pit trading, crude popped into positive territory to new session highs of $71.42 per barrel, but has since moved back in the red ahead of weekly inventory data, down 0.4% at $70.67 per barrel. Following the data, which showed a draw of 4729K vs. consensus of 2500K, crude spiked to fresh highs of $71.60, up 0.6%.

October natural gas traded in positive territory overnight and pushed to fresh highs of $3.577 at the open of pit trading along with crude. Natural gas is just off highs, but still up sharply with gains of $6.9% at $3.548 per MMBtu.

The US Dollar Index traded lower overnight, providing price support to precious metals, and is currently just under the unchanged line.

December gold and silver traded higher overnight and are just off the best levels of the session. Gold is currently up 1% at $1016.70 per ounce and silver is 1.7% higher at $17.285 per ounce.DJ30 +9.22 NASDAQ +4.47 SP500 +2.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1407/640.5 mln/1002 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1870/344.4 mln/920

10:00 am : The major indices came close to surrendering all of their initial gains, but they managed to rebound upon reaching the neutral line. Financial stocks and energy stocks continue to provide a supportive boon to the broader market.

Financial stocks are up 0.9% with regional banks (+1.2%) extending their gains from the previous session. Fifth Third (FITB 10.20, -0.10) is a laggard in the bunch, though. The company stated in a presentation that third quarter charge-offs will likely rise to $775 million from $626 million in the second quarter.

Energy stocks are up a solid 0.7% with oil and gas exploration stocks (+1.7%) and oil and gas equipment stocks (+1.6%) showing strength. Their gains come even though oil prices are currently flat at $70.90 per barrel ahead of the latest weekly inventory report, which is due at the bottom of the hour.DJ30 +14.59 NASDAQ +6.18 SP500 +3.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1310/379 mln/984 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1738/221 mln/936

09:45 am : Similar to the previous session, stocks have jumped out to strong gains only to see them come under pressure. Still, the major indices remain in positive territory with modest gains.

Primary strength is being exhibited by energy stocks (+0.7%), financials (+0.5%), industrials (+0.5%), and materials stocks (+0.5%).

Materials stocks actually made up the best performing sector in the previous session by advancing more than 2%. They were helped along by broad-based buying among commodities. Commodities continue to garner support, with gold gaining some of the strongest interest. The precious metal has made its way up 1.3% to $1018 per ounce.DJ30 +9.75 NASDAQ +6.55 SP500 +1.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1274/246 mln/926 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1742/161 mln/874

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.50. Stock futures are near their best levels of the morning following news that industrial production for August climbed 0.8%, which is greater than the 0.6% increase that had been widely expected. Meanwhile, capacity utilization for August came in at 69.6%, which is slightly above the 69.0% that was widely expected and up from the 69.0% that was registered in July. The latest utilization data indicates that resources remain a ways away from being strained to the point of stoking inflation. Overall, the data have complemented other solid economic reports already released this moring, helping to keep participants in a positive mood.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.50. U.S. stock futures continue to trade with strength, thanks largely to momentum buying and rallying overseas markets. Among the major European bourses, Germany's DAX is up 0.9%. Daimler (DAI) and Siemens (SI) are leading advancing issues, which outnumber decliners by 3-to-1. Volkswagen is a laggard after failing to follow its peer, Daimler, higher. In France, the CAC is up 1.5% with financial outfits BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, and Credit Agricole showing strength. In Britain, the FTSE is up 1.5%. Once again, metals and steel giants Rio Tinto (RTP), Xstrata (XTA), and BHP Billiton (BHP) are providing primary leadership. However, banking stocks are also showing strength after reports indicated that the European Commission may force Lloyds (LYG) to divest its key Halifax subsidiary in compensation for state aid. In economic news, The Wall Street Journal reported that U.K. unemployment jumped to its highest level for 14 years in the second quarter to 7.9%. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.9% and Japan's Nikkei added 0.5%. However, The Nikkei did surrender some of its gains ahead of the policies of Japan's new government. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng shot up 2.6%. Banking stocks rallied with Bank of China climbing to a 22-month closing high and China Construction Bank hitting a 13-month closing high. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite faltered. It fell 1.1%. According to a report from Reuters, an IMF director said that Asian countries are ahead in the global economic recovery, but the rebound is still very weak.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.00. Stock futures have pulled back a bit following the release of a couple of economic reports. First on the list is the August Consumer Price Index, which increased 0.4% month-over-month. It was expected to increase 0.3% after coming in flat in July. Core consumer prices for August increased 0.1% month-over-month. That is spot on with the consensus forecast and also matches the 0.1% increase that was logged in July. The CPI data for August is far more tame than the PPI data for August, which showed some of their sharpest increases in months when they were released yesterday. Meanwhile, the second quarter current account deficit came in at $98.8 billion, which is deeper than the $92.0 billion deficit that was widely anticipated. However, it marks an improvement from the downwardly revised $104.5 billion deficit that was previously reported.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.80. Stock futures are looking strong after logging, yet again, new highs for 2009 in the previous session. This morning's upbeat tone is being helped along by strong buying interest in overseas markets, which are broadly higher. Participants get a bundle of trading catalysts later this morning with the release of the August CPI and the second quarter current account balance, both of which are due at the bottom of the hour. Net long-term TIC flows data for July are due at 9:00 AM ET, followed by August industrial production data and capacity utilization data for August at 9:15 AM ET.

06:39 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.80.

06:38 am : Nikkei...10270.77...+53.20...+0.50%. Hang Seng...21402.92...+536.60...+2.60%.

06:38 am : FTSE...5111.51...+69.40...+1.40%. DAX...5674.34...+45.40...+0.80%.

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