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 Post subject: September 14th Monday 2009 Emini ES ($ES_F) points +3.75
PostPosted: Mon Sep 14, 2009 10:12 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 1:06 pm
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Location: Canada

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @

I missed some key price action for trade opportunieties due to personal errands today and this will be the theme of my trading for the entire week.

Other than that, not much to say beyond the key change in supply/demand today was @ 1430pm est and it should have impact on tomorrow's price action if there aren't any big opening gaps.

FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.


In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their interest in trade signals while ignoring the impact of their trading habits/routine or personal lifestyle. If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +3.75 Emini ES ($ES_F) points


Stocks Shake Off Jitters To End Higher
Markets stage slim advance after a choppy morning as Wall Street weighs Obama speech and eyes China trade dispute.
By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
Last Updated: September 14, 2009: 6:17 PM ET

NEW YORK ( -- Stocks ended higher Monday as investors ultimately shook off the day's jitters about China's trade rift with the U.S. just ahead of the anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 21 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index gained 6 points, or 0.6%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 11 points, or 0.5%.

Stocks took a breather Friday after a five-session winning streak that left the major indexes at the highest levels in nearly a year. But after that selloff, investors were wary Monday. A choppy session ended with only slim gains.

Higher commodity prices have supported the most recent leg of the advance, boosting the underlying stocks. Gains in technology and financial shares added to the advance.

But oil services, tech and financial shares struggled Monday, limiting the market's movement.

Tuesday brings the August retail sales report from the Commerce Department and, the Producer Price index (PPI), a measure of wholesale inflation, and the Empire State manufacturing index.

China: The U.S. and its largest trading partner are facing a growing rift, even as the countries continue to collaborate as part of a global effort to tackle the economic slowdown.

Late Friday, President Obama, responding to complaints from labor unions, said the U.S. would impose tariffs of up to 35% on tires from China.

On Sunday, China said it would begin the process of imposing tariffs on U.S. cars and chicken meat. On Monday, China asked the World Trade Organization to get involved.

The conflict precedes the Group of 20 meeting of leaders of the largest and fastest-growing economies in the U.S. next week.

Global markets tumbled, with major European and Asian markets ending lower.

The trade spat and slide in global markets gave a boost to the U.S. dollar, which has been sliding versus other major currencies lately.

President Obama: The president spoke Monday on Wall Street about financial services reform on the eve of the one-year anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Obama said that the economy is returning to normal, but that it will take time. He also said Wall Street must take steps to rebuild its relationship with the public and make sure that it doesn't engage again in the kind of behavior that led to the crisis.

One-year later: Tuesday is the anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers and buyout of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America, events that were seen as turning a recession into a full-blown crisis on a level not seen since the 1930s.

On that day, the Dow plunged 504 points as financial shares tumbled, credit seized up and investors panicked.

Stocks zigzagged through the week, but managed to end with just slim declines that Friday thanks to some government actions. They included the Fed jumping in to save AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) from bankruptcy and the establishment of an early version of the TARP bank bailout plan.

For a look at what the government has been doing over the last year to manage the crisis, click here.

Company news: Eli Lilly (LLY, Fortune 500) said its cutting around 5,500 jobs as part of a bigger plan to save $1 billion by 2011. Shares ended modestly higher.

Sprint (S, Fortune 500) shares rallied 11% on published reports that Deutsche Telekom, the owner of T-Mobile USA, is interesting in acquiring the U.S. based phone carrier.

Oil and gold: The stronger dollar dragged on dollar-traded commodities Monday, with oil and gold prices retreating.

U.S. light crude oil for October delivery fell 43 cents to settle at $68.86 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for December delivery fell $5.30 to settle at $1,001.10 an ounce, remaining above the key $1,000 level.

Bonds: Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.38% from 3.35% late Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers two to one on volume of 1.21 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners eight to five on volume of 2.19 billion shares.


Yahoo! Finance

4:35 pm : Weakness overseas and concerns regarding trade with China weighed on sentiment in the early going, but stocks worked their way out of negative territory to finish the session at fresh highs for 2009.

The stock market started the session with a loss of roughly 0.7% as several major foreign markets were knocked lower by profit takers. The case for paring positions also seemed appropriate since it appeared that the major U.S. indices were losing momentum after slipping from 2009 highs last Friday to log a loss and finish last week on a down note. Participants were also a bit unsettled by news that China's trade officials have threatened to restrict chicken and auto product imports from the U.S. in response to the decision by U.S. officials to place punitive sanctions on Chinese tire imports. Goodyear Tire (GT 17.78, +0.51) and Cooper Tire (CTB 15.60, +1.03) were helped by the story, but Sanderson Farms (SAFM 40.01, -0.28) and Tyson Foods (TSN 12.45, -0.30) were hurt.

Despite the inclination to sell this morning, buyers showed resolve and began pushing stocks higher. Their efforts gained momentum as short sellers were forced to cover their positions. Stocks did run into a bit of resistance as they encountered the 2009 highs that were registered late last week. However, a final push in the closing minutes of trade helped the stock market settle at its best level of the year. The S&P 500 is now up more than 16% year-to-date.

Sprint Nextel (S 4.15, -0.38) provided the most leadership to the broader market this session. The stock benefited from news that Deutsche Telekom may be interested in making a bid for the company, though Deutsche Telekom later stated that it doesn't plan to make a major U.S. purchase before year end. Still, the stock made its biggest single-session percentage advance in five months. Its leadership wasn't enough to prevent a 0.2% loss in the telecom sector, which was the only major sector to finish in the red.

Gains were strongest among utilities stocks, which have lagged in recent sessions. The sector advanced 1.6% after electric utilities (+1.7%) were given positive coverage in a Barron's article.

Financial stocks also showed leadership in the late move. They were down as much as 1% in the early going, but finished 1.6% higher.

Materials stocks also finished 1.6% higher, though commodities saw mixed action. Crude oil futures closed down 0.6% at $68.85 per barrel, while gold settled 0.5% lower at $1,001 per ounce following a report from the Daily Telegraph that said London's leading gold forecaster has advised clients to liquidate holdings of the yellow metal. Still, the broader CRB Commodity Index was able to rebound to a 0.6% gain. DJ30 +21.39 NASDAQ +10.88 NQ100 +0.5% R2K +1.1% SP400 +1.1% SP500 +6.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1623/2.17 bln/1046 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2000/1.21 bln/966

3:30 pm : The markets continue to flirt with session highs as well as highs for the year.

Natural gas futures continued their recent volatile swings this session. After gaining about 15% last Thursday and losing about 8% last Friday, the October natural gas futures gained 12.5% this session to close at $3.33 per contract. Natural gas prices are still not too far from multi-year lows. However, they are now at near one-month highs after gaining over 30% since hitting a low of $2.51 per contract on September 3.

Crude oil futures opened the session lower and chopped below the $69 per barrel level for most of the session. They closed down 0.6% at $68.85 per barrel.

Precious metals traded in the red for the entire session, yet losses were limited. After trading at their worst levels in the overnight trade, gold and silver futures pared losses during the pit trade. Both precious metals avoided wild swings this session. December gold futures traded sideways, above the $1,000 per ounce level for most of the session. They closed down 0.5% at $1,001 per ounce. December silver futures closed down 0.5% at $16.63 per ounce. DJ30 +2.20 NASDAQ +4.17 SP500 +3.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1462/1.78 bln/1173 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1848/860 mln/1110

3:00 pm : Stocks continue to trade with solid gains, but have run into some technical resistance as the S&P 500 pushes up against the 2009 highs that it registered this past Friday.

As stocks show relative strength, Treasuries have come under pressure. That has the benchmark 10-year Note down 15 ticks and its yield back above 3.4%.

Trading volume isn't yet impressive. With only one hour remaining before the closing bell makes its toll, fewer than 800 million shares have thus far exchanged hands on the NYSE.DJ30 +10.21 NASDAQ +7.33 SP500 +4.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1540/1.61 bln/1094 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1840/785 mln/1117

2:30 pm : Stocks have extended their gains by making a sudden jump. There doesn't appear to be any immediate catalyst behind the move, but it has been broad-based nonetheless.

Only the tech sector remains in the red. It is down 0.1%. Meanwhile, materials stocks have gone on a tear and are now up 1.3% after starting the session with a loss. The improved position of materials stocks comes in hand with a rebound by the CRB Commodity Index, which is now up 0.1% after spending the morning in the red. The rebound by the CRB comes even though the Dollar Index has improved its position and now trades with a 0.2% gain.DJ30 +19.28 NASDAQ +7.72 SP500 +4.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1526/1.46 bln/898 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1821/719 mln/1120

2:00 pm : The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite have successfully returned to positive ground, but the Dow has yet to join them. United Technologies (UTX 61.42, -0.57) is a primary laggard in the blue chip index.

Despite weakness in UTX, the rest of the industrial sector is looking solid as it sports a 0.4% gain. Most of that is owed to General Electric (GE 14.96, +0.29). GE announced that it, along with Hyundai Industries, has signed a turnkey contract for $2.65 billion with the Kuwait Ministry of Electricity and Water.DJ30 -13.30 NASDAQ +1.93 SP500 +1.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1399/1.32 bln/1173 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1612/654 mln/1312

1:30 pm : The S&P 500 remains restricted to a rather narrow trading range just below the break-even line. Half of its 10 major sectors are trading with gains and almost exactly half of its 500 components are also trading with gains.

Sprint Nextel (S 4.26, -0.49) is a primary leader in the benchmark index following news that Deutsche Telekom is interested in making a bid for the communications company. However, Dow Jones recently reported that Deutsche Telekom has no plans to buy a major U.S. company prior to the end of the year. DJ30 -23.73 NASDAQ -1.08 SP500 -0.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1304/1.21 bln/1273 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1504/594 mln/1406

1:00 pm : The major indices started the session in negative ground amid widespread weakness, but buyers have gradually stepped in to help stocks pare their losses. With foreign markets looking weak and U.S. stocks unable to finish the previous week on a strong note after notching fresh highs for 2009, participants were compelled to trim their positions.

The mood ahead of the opening bell was further unsettled by tit-for-tat tariff talk between China and the U.S. China's threat to put punitive sanctions on tire imports has shares of Goodyear Tire (GT 17.97, +0.70) and Cooper Tire (CTB 16.02, +1.45) up considerably, but the threat from the U.S. to restrict chicken shipments to China has hurt Sanderson Farms (SAFM 39.73, -0.56) and Tyson Foods (TSN 12.47, -0.28).

Several of this session's corporate headlines have centered around M&A dealings. Sprint Nextel (S 4.26, +0.49) took center stage following news that Deutsche Telekom may be interested in making a bid for the company. Meanwhile, Cadbury (CBY 52.15, +0.33) formally rejected an unsolicited $16.7 billion offer from Dow component Kraft (KFT 26.10, +0.01) by stating that the offer fundamentally fails to reflect the confectioner's current value. That has many analysts anticipating that Kraft will have to sweeten its offer for Cadbury. Conversely, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 60.40, -0.02) is trying to reduce the price of its previously offered $1.5 billion bid for Elan (ELN 7.58, -0.03), according to The Wall Street Journal. The negotiations follow a legal ruling regarding Elan's relationship with Biogen Idec (BIIB 50.90, +0.06).

Stocks haven't been able to fully recover from this morning's weakness and have spent the last hour trading in a narrow range near the neutral line, but commodities have been stuck in a bit of a funk for the entire session. As such, oil prices are down 0.6% to $68.90 per barrel and gold prices are down 0.4% to $1001 per ounce. Part of the pressure against gold comes amid a report from the Daily Telegraph that said London's leading gold forecaster has advised clients to liquidate holdings of the yellow metal. A stronger U.S. dollar had also been weighing on the precious metal in the early going, but the pressure from the greenback has recently eased with the Dollar Index now up a mere 0.1%. DJ30 -26.90 NASDAQ -1.30 SP500 -1.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1266/1.12 bln/1279 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1470/557 mln/1422

12:30 pm : After recently returning to the red, the stock market is making another attempt to find positive ground. The latest effort is encountering some resistance at the neutral line, though.

Despite a strong start by the U.S. dollar, it is currently grappling with sellers. The Dollar Index was up 0.4% ahead of the stock market's open, but recently slipped into negative territory. It has since made its way back into positive ground, but it now up just 0.1%. DJ30 -18.44 NASDAQ -0.91 SP500 -0.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1262/1.03 bln/1267 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1445/510 mln/1424

12:00 pm : Stocks recently spent a short stint in positive territory, but renewed pressure has since knocked the major indices back into the red. Despite the position of the major averages, action is still generally mixed among the major underlying sectors as four of the 10 trade with gains.

Utilities remain the best performing sector this session. They are up 0.8%. Conversely, financials remain the worst performing sector. They are down 0.6%.

Separately, President Obama has started a speech that is being addressed toward Wall Street. In his opening comments he has stated that [the country] won't return to reckless behavior and unchecked excess.DJ30 -25.92 NASDAQ -3.33 SP500 -1.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1226/925 mln/1286 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1391/458 mln/1461

11:30 am : Stocks continue to trade in mixed fashion after paring their losses. That has left the major indices to remain at the neutral line.

However, small-cap stocks and mid-cap stocks are faring relatively well as they make modest gains. Both the Russell 2000 and the S&P 400 are up 0.4%. DJ30 -2.72 NASDAQ +1.34 SP500 +0.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1284/821 mln/1196 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1514/411 mln/1336

11:00 am : Amid choppy trading, stocks have managed to pare their losses and take the broader market to the neutral line. The move has been relatively broad-based with the majority of the major sectors participating in the upward move -- materials (+0.2%), industrials (+0.3%), energy (+0.2%), health care (+0.3%), and utilities (+0.6%) are now all in positive territory.

In a recent article from Reuters, the U.S. Treasury issued a statement indicating that the financial system is still fragile and that the use of special stimulus measures is declining, but the measures can't be abruptly withdrawn. The comments come after Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said last week that backup bank bailout funds will not be needed.DJ30 -9.59 NASDAQ -0.26 SP500 -0.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1143/675 mln/1298 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1310/343 mln/1501

10:30 am : Overnight, October crude oil traded in negative territory, hitting lows of $68.02 per barrel. Crude rallied in recent activity and pushed into positive territory for the first time this morning, but that was short-lived as crude is trading lower again, currently down 0.5% at $68.95 per barrel.

After trading flat overnight, natural gas spiked minutes before the open of pit trading to highs of $3.307 per MMBtu. Currently, natural gas is trading 7.8% higher at $3.192 per MMBtu.

The US Dollar Index fell sharply in recent trading, providing modest strength to precious metals. However, an article from the Daily Telegraph, which reported that London's leading gold forecaster has advised clients to liquidate holdings of gold and silver until the latest speculative fever abates, is adding to the weakness in gold and silver today. Currently, gold is trading 0.6% lower at $1000.8 per ounce, while silver is 0.7% lower at $16.58 per ounce.DJ30 -23.05 NASDAQ -3.73 SP500 -2.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 961/512.1 mln/1418 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1062/264.4 mln/1697

10:00 am : Financial stocks are seeing some of the steepest losses this morning. The sector is curently down 0.9% as diversified financial services stocks (-1.6%), consumer finance stocks (-1.5%), and regional banks (-1.0%) come under pressure.

However, the financial sector's decline isn't terribly worse than that of some of the other weaker performing sectors. Specifically, industrial stocks are down 0.6% and consumer discretionary stocks are down 0.6%. The two sectors are among the cyclical plays that made some of the best gains last week.

Early movers: Trading up -- SLXP +51.2%, BRNC +23%, S +11.7%, ARIA +9.5%, CVGI +9.3%, HSTX +9%, CRNT +8.5%, THC +7.9%, CTB +7.8%, VM +6.4%; Trading down -- ALXA -24.1%, TIV -13.9%, SAH -8.6%, MWA -8.3%, SFSF -7.2%, GFIG -7%, WRES -6.9%, ADY -6.7%, DPTR -6.5%, REGN -6.1%, ROSE -6%,

09:45 am : Of the major sectors in the S&P 500, only health care and utilities are making gains. They are up 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively.

Health care's advance comes amid leadership from Tenet Health Care (THC 6.00, +0.55), which announced this morning that it expects to post earnings from $0.04 to $0.08 per share for fiscal 2009. It had previously forecast a loss.

Meanwhile, utilities stocks are being helped along by AES (AES 14.35, +0.20), which has benefitted from reports indicating that China's government's investment arm is interested in taking a stake in the company. However, fellow electric utilities like Southern (SO 31.27, +0.24) and Duke (DUK 15.59, +0.16) are bouncing in response to a positive Barron's article. DJ30 -40.13 NASDAQ -7.61 SP500 -4.07 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 823/218 mln/1422 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 813/123 mln/1811

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.00. U.S. stock futures remain under pressure as sellers continue to take profits after the S&P 500 failed to stay in positive territory following its move to fresh 2009 highs this past Friday. Selling pressure in foreign markets has only added to this morning's relatively negative tone, which has been exacerbated by news that China and the U.S. are looking to restrict certain imports and exports of chicken and auto products between one another. Commodities are also showing weakness this morning. As such, the CRB Commodities Index was recently quoted 0.1% lower with oil futures prices down 1.3% to $68.40 per barrel and gold prices down 0.7% to $998.50 per ounce. Their weakness follows a solid 0.5% rebound by the U.S. dollar, which had just last Friday registered near one-year lows. There aren't many corporate news items out this morning, though Spring Nextel (S) is benefiting from news that Deutsche Telekom may be interested in making a bid for the company. That has shares of S up some 16% to $4.40 per share ahead of the opening bell. In other would-be-deal news, Cadburry (CBY) has formally stated that an offer from Kraft (KFT) fundamentally fails to reflect Cadburry's current value. Shares of CBY are down fractionally ahead of the opening bell since the stock had seen its strongest advance immediately following word of its refusal for Kraft's unsolicited bid.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.30. The U.S. dollar is showing some early strength, which has helped the Dollar Index pull up from a near one-year low. The rebound by the greenback has sent gold prices back below the $1000 per ounce mark, which was most recenty eclipsed this past Friday as the yellow metal made its way to a near 18-month intraday high of $1012.40 per ounce. Gold was last quoted at $998.50 per ounce, down 0.7%. Oil prices are also under pressure. Futures contracts are currently pricing crude oil 0.4% lower at $69.05 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.00. Europe's major averages are trading markedly lower amid news that the Euro zone's industrial output fell 0.3% month-on-month in July and employment fell 0.5% in the second quarter. Amid the disappointing data, AFP reported that the European Union economy will shrink 4.0% in 2009, but it will climb out of recession in the third quarter. Even still, Moody's continues to hold a negative outlook for UK banks. That has the likes of Britain's Lloyds Group (LYG), HSBC (HBC), and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) under pressure and weighing on the FTSE, which is down 0.6%. However, Britain's natural resource stocks are showing the most weakness as BP PLC (BP), Rio Tinto (RTP), and BHP Billiton (BHP) lead losses. In Germany, the DAX is down 0.8%. Deutsche Bank (DB) is a primary laggard, as is fellow financial services outfit Allianz (AZ). Deutsche Telekom is also showing weakness following news that it has called banking advisers for a possible bid for Sprint Nextel (S). Such a deal would follow the merged British mobile units of Deutsche Telekom and France Telecom. France's CAC is off by 0.9%. Total (TOT), BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, and Credit Agricole are leading losses. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei slid 2.3% as more than 90% of its components faltered. Exporters showed some of the most weakness. As such, Fast Retailing was a primary laggard. Toyota Motor (TM) and Canon (CAJ) were also weak. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng shed 1.1% with China Mobile having the most negative impact on trade. HSBC and China Life were also primary laggards. In corporate news, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Chinese government's investment arm is in talks on taking a minority stake in power-plant developer AES (AES). Meanwhile, other articles indicate that China has threatened to restrict chicken and auto product imports from the U.S. following the decision by U.S. officials to slap punitive sanctions on Chinese tire imports. Meanwhile, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed 1.8% lower on Monday.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.50. Sizable losses among several major global indices have imbued U.S. stock futures with weakness. Amid such weakening are reports that China's trade officials have threatened to restrict chicken and auto product imports from the U.S. following the decision by U.S. officials to slap punitive sanctions on Chinese tire imports. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is negotiating to reduce the price of a previously offered $1.5 billion bid for Elan (ELN), following a legal ruling regarding Elan's relationship with Biogen Idec (BIIB). In other deal news, British reports indicate that Deutsche Telekom is interested in putting together a bid for Sprint Nextel (S). There aren't any widely-held companies scheduled to make quarterly announcements this morning, nor are there any major economic releases on tap for today.

06:36 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.50.

06:36 am : Nikkei...10202.06...-242.30...-2.30%. Hang Seng...20932.20...-229.20...-1.10%.

06:36 am : FTSE...4973.02...-38.50...-0.80%. DAX...5571.05...-52.80...-0.90%.

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