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 Post subject: August 31st Monday 2009 Emini ES points +1.50
PostPosted: Mon Aug 31, 2009 4:38 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=290

The below broker p/l statement does not show commissions. Simply, although it was a +1.50 points...I'm down a few points when commissions are included. Thus, it's a losing trading day but no real complaints other than that I only had patience on 3 trades today for my first trading day after a few days off last week.

In addition, I used an unusual position size management method today (see #FuturesTrades log at above link).

FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their interest in trade signals while ignoring the impact of their trading habits/routine or personal lifestyle. If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +1.50 Emini ES points

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Stocks: A Down Day In A Strong Month
Wall Street follows overseas markets lower as nervous investors brace for a choppy September. Disney, Marvel deal fails to improve the mood.
By Ben Rooney, CNNMoney.com staff reporter
Last Updated: August 31, 2009: 4:22 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks closed lower Monday after a big drop in Chinese shares heightened concerns that U.S. markets have risen too far too fast. But August was a good month for Wall Street.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) shed 47 points, or 0.5%, on the last day of the month, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 (SPX) index lost 8 points, or 0.8%, while the Nasdaq composite (COMP) slid 20 points, or 0.9%.

Despite Monday's weakness, the Dow and S&P turned in their best August performance since 2000. For the entire month, the Dow gained about 3.5% and the S&P added roughly 3.3%.

The Nasdaq ended up 1.5% for August.

Stocks opened sharply lower Monday, following a 6% drop in the Shanghai Composite index. The selloff in China raised concerns about the global economy and prompted investors to shy away from risky assets.

Oil prices sank nearly 5%, falling below $70 a barrel. That dragged on shares of oil services firms Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500). Industrial names such as Boeing (BA, Fortune 500) and Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) also fell sharply.

Bank stocks, which have led the market higher in recent sessions, came under pressure. Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) was down 4%, while Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500) lost about 2%. Troubled insurance giant AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) fell nearly 12%.

The retreat came despite a pair of big corporate mergers and a stronger-than-expected regional manufacturing report. Analysts said the market's tone is jittery heading into what is expected to be a volatile month.

September is historically a bad month for stocks and market participants are bracing for a possible pullback following a surprisingly strong summer advance.

Between the March 9 lows and Friday's close, the S&P 500 gained 52%, as investors responded to stronger corporate results and improved economic data. However, analysts say more concrete signs of economic growth are now necessary to keep the rally going.

Stocks closed mixed Friday. The Dow and S&P both ended lower, while the Nasdaq gained 1 point to its highest level since early October.

Mergers and acquisitions: Walt Disney (DIS, Fortune 500) said it would acquire comic book publisher Marvel Entertainment (MVL) for approximately $4 billion. Shares of Marvel surged 25%.

In other deals, oilfield services company Baker Hughes (BHI, Fortune 500) said that it would purchase rival BJ Services (BJS, Fortune 500) in a cash-and-stock deal worth approximately $5.5 billion.

Economy: A report showed manufacturing activity in the Midwest was stronger than expected during August.

The Institute for Supply Management's Chicago PMI rose to 50 in August from 43.4 in July. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a reading of 47.2.

The report comes one day before the ISM releases its national manufacturing report, which is forecast to rise to a level signaling expansion for the first time since January 2008.

Investors are looking toward a number of economic reports later in the week, including auto sales for August on Tuesday and the widely watched monthly employment report on Friday.

Other markets: In currency trading, the dollar fell against the euro and retreated versus the yen.

Oil for October delivery was down $3.07 to settle at $69.68 a barrel in New York.

Bond prices rose, with the benchmark 10-year note gaining 9/32 to 101-23/32. Its yield, which moves inversely, was 3.41%.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:25 pm : Both stocks and commodities spent the entire session trading with considerable weakness as a broad-based selling effort took hold following a steep selloff in China's Shanghai Composite Index.

The Shanghai Composite dropped 6.7% on Monday to hit a three-month closing low and log its second worst monthly performance in 15 years amid valuation concerns and fears that tighter lending in China will impede the flow of investment funds. Investors and traders responded to the selling effort by sending many of the major global averages lower. In turn, the Dow Jones World Index lost 0.8%.

The major U.S. indices managed to trim some of their losses into the close, though. The late lift came as consumer staples stocks garnered enough support to finish with a 0.3% gain, the only one seen among the major sectors in the S&P 500.

Health care stocks finished just 0.2% lower and financials limited their loss to 0.4% after being down nearly 2% in the early going. The financial sector's rebound came amid buying in diversified bank stocks (+0.8%), even though Reuters reported that a highly regarded analyst expects U.S. bank earnings to remain dismal this year. However, the report indicated that regional banks (-0.8%) would be the ones to continue booking losses into 2010.

Weakness among stocks bled into commodities pits and sent oil prices down 3.9% to $69.92 per barrel. Meanwhile, gold prices lost 0.5% to settle at $953.50 per ounce. In a broader measure of the weakness surrounding commodities, the CRB Commodity Index dropped 1.6%. T

he decline among basic commodities and weakness in the equity market left materials stocks and energy stocks to suffer some of the worst losses in the broader market. They dropped a respective 1.4% and 1.8%. BJ Services (BJS 16.06, +0.63) was one of the few energy holdings to garner support, but that was only because Baker Hughes (BHI 34.45, -3.64) announced it will pay cash and stock to acquire the smaller oil services company in a transaction valued at roughly $5.5 billion.

Disney (DIS 26.04, -0.80) announced that it will make an acquisition of its own. The broadcasting and entertainment company will take over Marvel Entertainment (MVL 48.37, +9.72) for $30 per share in cash and approximately 0.745 shares of DIS.

Outside of the M&A news, there weren't many corporate headlines for participants to digest. Such will likely be the cast tomorrow since there aren't any major companies scheduled to announce their quarterly results prior to Tuesday's opening bell. However, ISM manufacturing data for August, construction spending data for July, and pending home sales data for July are likely to provide participants with direction.

Vehicle sales data are also expected to be released tomorrow, although Ford (F 7.60 -0.13) already stated that its U.S. auto sales for August were up year-over-year earlier. The specific number of sales has yet to be released, but many believe that the results were driven by the one-time incentives of the Cash for Clunkers program.

Trading volume climbed above its 50-day moving average by coming in near 1.4 billion shares on the NYSE. That's the first non options-expiration session in which trading volume surpassed the moving average mark since early August.DJ30 -47.92 NASDAQ -19.71 NQ100 -1.1% R2K -1.3% SP400 -1.3% SP500 -8.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 749/2.29 bln/1938 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 795/1.38 bln/2205

3:30 pm : Stocks retreated back to the session's narrow range after hitting afternoon highs. Broad-based losses persist. The hardest hit sector continues to be energy, currently down 2.1%.

On that point, energy commodities have seen the most intense selling pressure this session. They lost 3.9% in today's pit trade.

Crude oil futures are a good example of this weakness. October crude oil futures trended lower for the majority of the pit trade. They broke through the $70 per barrel level to close at $69.92 per barrel, down 3.9%.

October natural gas futures recovered from the morning's session lows at $2.91 per contract. After eclipsing the $3.00 per contract level, the October futures finished 0.5% lower at $2.99 per contract.

Losses in precious metals futures were mitigated by a decline in the dollar. December gold futures opened at a session low below $945 per ounce but closed at $953.50 per ounce, down 0.5%. December silver futures actually recovered into positive territory after trading near 2% lower in the morning session. The December silver futures closed 0.7% higher at $14.92 per ounce.DJ30 -78.67 NASDAQ -26.04 SP500 -11.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 666/1.80 bln/1999 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 688/810 mln/2295

3:00 pm : Stocks have managed to break free from their recent trading range to climb to afternoon highs. The major indices are still below the levels where they traded this morning, though.

The recent upturn comes amid relative strength in consumer staples stocks, which are now sporting a 0.2% gain, and financial stocks, which are now trading with a loss of just 0.3%. The financial sector had been down nearly 2% in the early going, but interest in diversified banks (+0.9%) and specialized finance holdings (+1.1%) has helped it pare its losses.DJ30 -70.66 NASDAQ -23.02 SP500 -9.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 689 mln/1.59 bln/1971 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 736/716 mln/2227

2:30 pm : The major averages continue to trade in a tight, sideways fashion due to a lack of market moving catalysts this afternoon. Stocks remain firmly lower with essentially all of the major sectors trading with losses.

News has been light, but one story of note is that Ford (F 7.48 -0.25) recently reported that U.S. auto sales rose in August from a year earlier, which is the second consecutive month of year-over-year increases. Ford will report its detailed August sales numbers tomorrow morning. DJ30 -86.5 NASDAQ -26.7 SP500 -11.9 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 628/1409.5/2059 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 618/779.6/2341

2:00 pm : Diversified bank stocks have managed to limit their losses to just 0.3%, as a group. However, regional banks are down a collective 1.5%.

That dichotomy comes amid news from Reuters that famed analyst Dick Bove said that U.S. bank earnings will be dismal for remainder of this year, with continued losses for regional banks into early 2010. Such losses would come as banks continue to grapple with the consequences of a weakened consumer base and toxic loans.

The problems facing banks since the beginning of the financial crisis had led the government to fund banks with billions of dollars. According to the New York Times, the government is now making a profit on those funds that it doled out. According to the report, profits collected from eight of the biggest banks that have fully repaid their obligations to the government total roughly $4 billion. Meanwhile, Financial Times reported that the Federal Reserve has made a $14 billion profit on loan programs that provided funds to the financial system, according to Fed officials. According to the report, the central bank earned about $19 billion in income from charging interest and fees to financial institutions. DJ30 -89.71 NASDAQ -27.08 SP500 -11.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 620/1.36 bln/2020 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 592/627 mln/2355

1:30 pm : The stock market has drifted downward, though it has not yet returned to its absolute worst level of the session. Instead, stocks seem to have garnered a little bit of support as the S&P 500 has come in-line with last week's lows, which were set near the 1016 mark.

News flow remains slow, so participants are looking ahead to tomorrow's calendar events. ISM manufacturing data for August, construction spending data for July, and pending home sales data for July are due shortly after Tuesday's opening bell. Vehicle sales data are also expected to be released tomorrow. There aren't any major companies scheduled to report their latest quarterly earnings results, however.DJ30 -91.60 NASDAQ -28.22 SP500 -12.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 608/1.28 bln/2017 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 575/593 mln/2364

1:00 pm : Shanghai's Composite Index dropped nearly 7% on Monday and caused participants in just about every major global market to make a concerted move against stocks. That has left all three major U.S. equity averages to spend the entire session trading with weakness and unmoved by a couple of considerable M&A deals.

Concerns that tighter lending in China will reduce liquidity and prevent Asian investors from piling into stocks has led to some stiff selling pressure in recent sessions, including a 6.7% drop for the Shanghai Composite on Monday. That left the index to settle at a three-month closing low and log its second worst monthly performance in 15 years, according to reports.

News that money managers in mainland China recommended for the first time in six months that investors reduce equity allocations added to the bearish bias.

With foreign markets under considerable pressure and U.S. stocks having just registered fresh intraday highs for 2009 on Friday, participants are taking profits to be prudent.

Weakness this session hasn't been limited to just equities, though. Instead, broad weakness among commodities has the CRB Commodity Index down 2.1% in its second worst single-session percentage decline of the month. The CRB's weakness is primarily the result of sharply lower oil prices, which are down 4.4% to $69.55 per barrel.

Such a sharp drop has been particularly burdensome to the energy sector, which is down 2.1%, more than any other major sector in the S&P 500.

Not even news that BJ Services (BJS 16.36, +0.93) and Baker Hughes (BHI 35.00, -3.09) will merge has helped garner support for the prospects of the energy sector. The two companies announced this morning that Baker Hughes will acquire the smaller oil services company in a cash and stock transaction valued at roughly $5.5 billion.

In other merger news, Marvel Entertainment (MVL 48.33, +9.68) will be acquired by Disney (DIS 25.91, -0.93) for total of $30 per share in cash, plus approximately 0.745 shares of DIS. DJ30 -88.42 NASDAQ -26.99 SP500 -12.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 626/1.19 bln/1988 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 569/561 mln/2350

12:30 pm : Shares of drug giant AstraZeneca (AZN 47.06, +0.76) are among the better performers this session. The stock has won favor among participants amid news that its drug Crestor reduced risks of cardiovascular events in elderly patients, according to a new analysis, while The Wall Street Journal reported that one of the company's new drugs in development significantly outperformed Plavix in a clinical trial. Plavix is comarketed by Sanofi-Aventis (SNY 34.01, -0.52) and BristolMyersSquibb (BMY 21.94, -0.18).

Meanwhile, the broader market has entered into a relatively narrow trading range, which has left all three major indices moving sideways.DJ30 -85.02 NASDAQ -24.34 SP500 -11.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 619/1.11 bln/1971 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 568/520 mln/2342

12:00 pm : Despite a rather brief attempt to pare its losses, the stock market remains under the control of sellers. Their presence has been felt since the early morning, when participants moved against stocks after witnessing a near 7% drop by Shanghai's Composite Index, which fell amid concerns that tighter lending practices in China could ultimately undercut the mainland's stock market.

Weakness hasn't been limited to equities. Rather, commodities are also under pressure as sellers move in broad fashion. As such, oil prices are down a sharp 4.2% to $69.71 per barrel, while gold prices are down 0.8% to $949.90 per ounce.

Despite widespread weakness, Treasuries aren't garnering the degree of support that one would ordinarily expect in such a scenario. The benchmark 10-year Note is up a rather modest 6 ticks, but the 30-year Bond is down 5 ticks. They are yielding 3.42% and 4.21%, respectively.DJ30 -84.04 NASDAQ -23.97 SP500 -11.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 607/1.00 bln/1965 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 557/479 mln/2334

11:30 am : As a group, consumer staples stocks have managed to limit their losses to just 0.3%. They currently make up the best performing sector in the S&P 500 this session, but they are among the weakest performing sectors this year, having advanced less than 3% year-to-date.

Prepared and packaged food makers Kellogg (K 46.68, +0.16) and General Mills (GIS 59.19, +0.22) are giving the consumer staples sector the most support this session. Their overall performance this year has been mixed, though. Specifically, shares of K are up 6% year-to-date, while shares of GIS are down nearly 3% year-to-date.DJ30 -86.91 NASDAQ -26.20 SP500 -12.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 597/889 mln/1958 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 557/429 mln/2314

11:00 am : Financial stocks have pared their losses so that the sector is now down 0.7% after being down nearly 2% at its session low. Visa (V 71.06, +0.56) has been a primary source of support for the financial sector.

As financial stocks trimmed their losses, the broader market followed. Still, weakness remains widespread as all 10 major sectors are still in the red.DJ30 -84.34 NASDAQ -23.00 SP500 -9.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 588/744 mln/1905 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 524/377 mln/2298

10:30 am : October crude oil traded lower in overnight activity and has continued its downward trend this morning, hitting fresh lows of $70.06 per barrel in recent activity. Currently, crude is trading 3.6% lower at $70.09 per barrel.

October natural gas opened in negative territory in pit trading and hit new lows of $2.914 per MMBtu. Natural gas has regained about half of its losses and is trading 2.1% lower at $2.971 per MMBtu.

The US Dollar Index is off morning highs and is back near the unchanged line, providing recent price strength in precious metals this morning. December gold and December silver hit session lows of $944.30 per ounce and $14.695 per ounce, respectively, minutes after pit trading began. Gold is currently trading 0.9% lower at $950.6 per ounce, while silver is almost back near unchanged levels, currently down 0.8% at $14.695 per ounce. DJ30 -86.91 NASDAQ 27.29 SP500 -12.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 503/530 mln/1946 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 403/282.6 mln/2362

10:00 am : Stocks have extended their morning slide so that all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 now trade with a loss. Early weakness continues to be most unkind to the materials sector, which is trading 2.0% lower.

That isn't to say that losses are concentraded to the materials sector, though. Instead, nearly 90% of the companies listed in the S&P 500 are in the red.

AIG (AIG 45.14, -5.09) is the worst performing stock this morning, by percent lost. Its weakness, along with that of other multiline insurers (-3.5%), has the financial sector down 1.5%.

Early movers: Trading up -- DCTH +28%, MVL +26.8%, AUTH +16.9%, SVA +11.4%, TRBN +10.1%, MAIL +7.7%, DWA +7.2%, DTO +6.9%, SCO +6.9%, KFN +6.2%, BJS +5.6%; Trading down -- AIG -11.6%, FRE -11.3%, ITUB -10%, IRE -9.4%, AIB -9.1%, BHI -8.4%, BZ -8.2%, SRZ -7.8%, PMI -7.3%, FNA -7.3%, JRN -7.1%, CKSW -7.1%, HOV -7%, FRE-Z -6.9%DJ30 -99.91 NASDAQ -26.67 SP500 -12.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 463/338 mln/1902 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 354/221 mln/2369

09:40 am : Stocks are contending with a broad-based selling effort that has taken eight of the 10 major sectors into the red. Only the health care sector (+0.1%) and the consumer staples sector (+0.2%) are higher.

Losses are steepest in the materials sector, which is down 1.9%. However, financials (-1.7%) and energy stocks (-1.6%) aren't far behind.DJ30 -59.03 NASDAQ -15.72 SP500 -8.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 502/163 mln/1749 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 405/142 mln/2209

09:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.50. China's Shanghai Composite Index fell nearly 7% Monday as participants reacted to concerns that tighter lending practices will impede growth. News that fund managers reduced their recommended allocation to stocks for the first time in six months didn't help sentiment, either. The call by foreign managers reflects those that have already been made by many market pundits, who have also encouraged investors to take profits. There are a couple of corporate headlines of note out this morning, both of which suggest there is still plenty of life in the merger and acquisition business. First, BJ Services (BJS) and Baker Hughes (BHI) announced a definitive merger agreement, which represents a transaction value of $5.5 billion for BJ Services, based on a mix of cash and stock. Meanwhile, Marvel Entertainment (MVL) will be acquired by Disney (DIS) for total of $30 per share in cash, plus approximately 0.745 shares of DIS. However, the announcements aren't doing anything to sway the mood of premarket participants from negative to positive.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.30. A selloff in China's Shanghai Composite Index (-6.7%) continues to undercut the major global indices. As such, U.S. stock futures continue to lag fair value. The pessimistic tone among equity traders has carried into commodities pits, where futures contracts for gold are being priced 1.0% lower at $948.00 per ounce. Meanwhile, oil contract prices are down 2.5% to $70.90 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. Losses among key commodities this morning have taken the CRB Commodity Index 0.4% into the red.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.50. Premarket trading continues to go on with a downward bias, which follows a broad selling effort overseas. Such selling pressure has Germany's DAX down 0.8% with declining issues outnumbering advancers by 4-to-1. BASF, Daimler (DAI), and Deutsche Bank (DB) are leading the decline. In France, the CAC is off by 0.8% as BNP Paribas and Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) show considerable weakness. Britain's FTSE is closed for the session. In economic news, Euro zone consumer prices fell for the third straight month during August. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.7% as weakness from mainland China carried over into fellow markets. Losses in Japan were contained, though. In turn, the Nikkei closed just 0.4% lower. Japaneses stocks had been up handsomely in the early going. The initially positive tone came about after Democrats took a major election over the past weekend. In the end, though, Canon (CAJ), Honda Motor (HMC), and Toyota Motor (TM) faltered and led declines. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng fell 1.9%. Cyclical stocks took a pounding, while banks were also hit hard. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite dropped 6.7%, marking a three-month closing low. The loss also marked its second-biggest monthly loss in 15 years. The drop came after mainland fund managers reduced their recommended allocation to equities for the first time in six months.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.80. Stock futures are down markedly as premarket participants react to a selloff in overseas trading, which left both European and Asian markets traded broadly lower overnight -- the sharpest downturns were registered in China as the Shanghai Comoposite dropped nearly 7% amid ongoing concerns regarding the pace of lending. In corporate news, Baker Hughes (BHI) is acquiring BJ Services (BJS). There isn't much in the way of market-moving economic data due today.

06:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -7.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.30.

06:35 am : Nikkei...10492.53...-41.60...-0.40%. Hang Seng...19724.19...-374.40...-1.90%.

06:35 am : FTSE...Holiday......... DAX...5473.58...-43.80...-0.80%.

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