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 Post subject: August 28th Friday 2009 Emini ES points (no trades)
PostPosted: Fri Aug 28, 2009 7:02 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=288

As mentioned all week...this week is family week (spending extra time with spouse and kids) which meant I did very little trading this week while Thursday and Friday was completely off from the markets (no trades, no market monitoring and no discussions with clients or other traders).

I look forward to resuming trading on August 31st Monday.

However, you can still review today's trade log for other members of #FuturesTrades at the above link and below you'll find today's market summaries.

FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their interest in trade signals while ignoring the impact of their trading habits/routine or personal lifestyle. If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: 0.00 Emini ES points due to vacation

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Dow Snaps Winning Streak
Intel's improved sales forecast and Dell's profit surprise encourage tech investors, but stocks struggle one day after the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit fresh 2009 highs.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: August 28, 2009: 6:10 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks seesawed Friday as investors welcomed corporate news from Intel and Dell that signaled a bottom in the PC market, but mostly played it cautious after pushing the markets to 2009 highs in the previous session.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 36 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index lost 2 points or 0.2%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 1 point, or 0.1% and managed to squeak out a fresh 2009 high, closing at the highest point since Oct. 1.

All three major indexes had gained in the morning, thanks to the tech boost, but lost steam as the session wore on. Trading volume was light on the second-to-last trading session of August.

Stocks managed slim gains Thursday, with the Dow stretching its winning streak to eight straight sessions, its longest run since the period ended April 10, 2007.

But the gains have been tepid this week on the back of a surprisingly strong summer advance.

Between the March 9 lows and Friday's close, the S&P 500 gained 52%.

Intel and Dell: Chipmaker Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) boosted its revenue forecast for the third quarter, thanks to stronger PC demand, saying it expects sales of $8.8 billion to $9.2 billion. Previously, it forecast sales of $8.1 billion to $8.9 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are currently forecasting sales of $8.55 billion.

Although many companies reported better-than-expected earnings in the second quarter, revenue growth has been tepid with results mostly driven by cost-cutting. Intel, a Dow component, rallied 4%.

PC maker Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) reported weaker sales and earnings late Thursday that beat expectations, sending shares 1.8% higher Friday.

Economy: Personal income was essentially flat in July, the government reported, versus forecasts for a rise of 0.1%. Income declined 1.1% in June.

But spending perked up, thanks to the government's Cash for Clunkers program. Personal spending rose 0.2% after falling 1.1% in June. The rise was in line with estimates.

Consumer sentiment was revised up to 65.7 in August from an earlier reading of 63.2. Economists expected a reading of 64. In July, sentiment stood at 66.

Company news: Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) has signed a multiyear deal with China Unicom to bring the iPhone to China, the world's largest cellphone market. The deal ends months of speculation as to which Chinese firm would enable Apple's expansion into the lucrative market. Shares were little changed.

Oil: U.S. light crude oil for October delivery rose 25 cents to settle at $72.74 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

World markets: European markets ended higher, while Asian markets ended mixed.

Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.43% from 3.44% late Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Treasury sold $109 billion in debt this week to moderate demand.

Other markets: COMEX gold for December delivery rose $11.50 to settle at $958.80 an ounce.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the Japanese yen.

Market breadth was mixed. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners narrowly beat losers on volume of 1.19 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers eight to five on volume of 2.38 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Thanks to some strong announcements from a few key tech players, stocks were able to build on the previous session's upward momentum and start Friday considerably higher. However, stocks were unable to hold their initial gains as the belief that recent positive announcements have already been priced into stocks prompted sellers to book profits. That resulted in a lackluster finish for the major indices.

Dell (DELL 15.93, +0.27) helped extend the previous session's positive bias into after-hours trading by posting a better-than-expected adjusted $0.28 per share for its latest quarter. The company went on to offer an encouraging assessment of demand.

Semiconductor outfit Marvell Tech (MRVL 15.36, +0.73) also announced last evening better-than-expected earnings. It brought in an adjusted $0.18 per share, but went on to issue an upside earnings forecast during its conference call.

Fellow semiconductor company Intel (INTC 20.25, +0.78) bolstered the positive bias in morning trading by stepping out with an increased revenue forecast, which now calls for a top line of approximately $9 billion in the current quarter. Analysts, on average, had forecast some $8.5 billion in revenue for the quarter.

With tech making such strong announcements, market participants were generally indifferent to personal income and spending data for July. Income was flat and spending was up 0.2%, while core personal consumption expenditures were up 0.1%. Each was essentially in-line with expectations.

Though this morning's announcements helped take the major indices to fresh highs for 2009, their stay there was short-lived. The reversal marks a sign that equity markets are having difficulty rallying on good news. Since stocks failed to hold its opening gains, a substantial portion of the recent good news could already be factored into stock prices.

One variable in that scenario, though, is the light trading volume that has defined market activity in recent weeks. Once again, trading volume was well below the longer-term averages by coming in below 1.2 billion shares on the NYSE this session.

Despite a low-volume, lackluster close for the broader market, there were a handful of strong finishes. Tech stocks were able to settle 0.3% higher, followed by a 0.2% gain among financials, thanks to continued buying in AIG (AIG 650.23, +2.39). Retailers finished fractionally higher as better-than-expected earnings from Tiffany (TIF 37.57, +3.82) and J. Crew (JCG 34.73, +1.97) provided support. Materials stocks had the best gains, though; they finished 0.6% higher.DJ30 -36.43 NASDAQ +1.04 NQ100 +0.1% R2K -0.7% SP400 +0.2% SP500 -2.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 938/2.35 bln/1731 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1508/1.19 bln/1489

3:30 pm : Crude oil had a volatile afternoon session after falling into negative territory to today's low of $71.78 per barrel. Crude was able to recover its losses shortly thereafter and finished the day modestly higher, up 0.4% at $72.75 per barrel.

Natural gas fell sharply today, keeping prices near 7-yr lows. Natural gas opened lower today, fell sharply just before pit trading began and continued to trade in negative territory during today's session. At the end of the day, natural gas finished 5.4% lower at $3.034 per MMBtu.

December gold and September silver opened higher and spiked shortly after the open to early highs of $964.60 and $14.865, respectively. Both gold and silver closed just below today's highs, up 1% at $957.4 per ounce and up 3.7% at $14.75 per ounce, respectively. DJ30 -26.83 NASDAQ +6.75 SP500 -0.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1030/1.96 bln/1641 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1503/851.9 mln/1492

3:00 pm : Just one hour remains in the session and stocks continue to drift sideways. Despite the slow, lackluster action, trading volume is consistent with recent sessions, suggesting that participation hasn't slumped this time around.

Treasuries continue to trade in quiet fashion. After being down roughly 8 or 9 ticks in the early going, the benchmark 10-year Note is back at the unchanged mark, where it has spent the afternoon after failing to put together a sustainable or meaningful gainDJ30 -41.72 NASDAQ +3.72 SP500 -1.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 959/1.85 bln/1700 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1421/804 mln/1557

2:30 pm : Stocks have entered into a rather narrow trading range, which has left the broader market largely unchanged from earlier levels. Specifically, the S&P 500 has spent the last hour trading within a three point span.

After stalling near the unchanged mark, financial stocks have managed to make their way to a 0.2% gain, however. AIG (AIG 50.06, +2.22) remains a primary leader in the sector, even after it fell from above $54 per share to less than $48 per share by midday. Shares of the insurer have rebounded, though.DJ30 -50.56 NASDAQ +0.15 SP500 -2.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 898/1.72 bln/1750 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1330/755 mln/1628

2:00 pm : Action has slowed a bit as participants move deeper into the afternoon and closer toward the closing bell. The subdued tone has left stocks trading with moderate losses.

Financial stocks have made an attempt to move back into positive ground. The sector had been down nearly 1%, but it has since recovered to trade with a loss of just 0.1%. Insurers remain the primary source of support for the sector, though specialized financial services firms (+0.7%) are also providing a boon.DJ30 -49.73 NASDAQ -2.83 SP500 -3.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 848/1.61 bln/1778 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1255/701 mln/1688

1:30 pm : Stocks are trimming their losses, but all three major indices remain in negative territory.

Tech stocks and materials stocks have made their way to higher ground, though. The two sectors are up 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. Tech's relative strength remains underpinned by semiconductors (+2.1%), while the materials sector has benefited from higher commodity prices, which have the CRB Commodity Index up 0.2%. The CRB was up nearly 1% earlier, however.DJ30 -43.76 NASDAQ -1.84 SP500 -3.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 885/1.52 bln/1761 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1297/660 mln/1614

1:00 pm : Better-than-expected earnings from Dell, an upside earnings surprise and upside outlook from Marvell Tech, and an upbeat revenue forecast from Intel helped stocks build on upward momentum established in the previous session, but profit-takers quickly stepped in as the major indices made their way to fresh 2009 highs in the opening moments. The efforts of sellers have left stocks trading with broad-based losses.

Market participants were largely unmoved by news this morning that personal income for July was flat and spending was up 0.2%. Both readings were essentially in step with expectations, as was a 0.1% month-over-month increase in core personal consumption expenditures.

Most of the morning's attention was spent on some impressive announcements from the tech sector. Dell (DELL 15.96, +0.30) announced late yesterday afternoon, just ahead of Thursday's closing bell, that it brought in an adjusted $0.28 per share, which was better than expected. Though the company's revenue is still down from the previous year, management stated during its conference call that sequential improvement in its top line is consistent with the view that demand has stabilized.

Intel (INTC 20.22, +0.75) showed confidence in demand by stepping out this morning by increasing its revenue forecast for the third quarter to approximately $9 billion from $8.5 billion. The consensus forecast was pegged at roughly $8.5 billion.

Fellow semiconductor outfit Marvell Tech (MRVL 15.25, +0.62) had plenty of good news of its own to offer. The company was out last evening to announce that it brought in a better-than-expected adjusted $0.18 per share for its latest quarter. During the company's conference call it issued a third quarter earnings forecast that topped the consensus outlook.

The announcements helped win favor for large-cap tech issues and gave the Nasdaq a comfortable lead over its counterparts in the early going. However, the enthusiasm over the reports has since subsided, leaving the broader market to trade lower.

The latest fit of weakness has stocks trading near session lows with all 10 major sectors in the red. Tech has limited its loss to just 0.1% as semiconductors hold on to a 1.6% gain. Retailers have managed to limit losses to 0.3%, thanks to upbeat results from Tiffany (TIF 36.95, +3.20) and J Crew (JCG 34.70, +1.94).DJ30 -69.84 NASDAQ -9.86 SP500 -6.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 799/1.42 bln/1784 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1169/621 mln/1738

12:30 pm : Stocks have fallen another leg lower. That has taken every major sector, except tech (+0.1%), into negative territory. Declining issues now outnumber advancers by more than 2-to-1 in the S&P 500.

With weakness spreading into tech holdings, the Nasdaq has surrendered its gains. Until the last half-hour, the tech rich index had spent the entire session sporting a gain, even though its counterparts had already faltered.DJ30 -77.24 NASDAQ -8.71 SP500 -6.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 795/1.31 bln/1781 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1090/575 mln/1822

12:00 pm : All three major indices are testing their session lows as they drift off of recent levels.

Health care stocks are seeing some of the most weakness. The sector is down 1.0% with managed care providers (-2.2%) and biotechs (-1.4%) doing the most damage.

Despite what has become a rather lackluster session for the broader market, technology stocks continue to sport an impressive 0.7% gain.

Retailers are also working to resist the latest fit of weakness. As a group, they are up 0.1%, thanks to strong quarterly results from Tiffany & Co. (TIF 36.75, +3.00) and J Crew (JCG 34.71, +1.95).DJ30 -47.92 NASDAQ +2.21 SP500 -3.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 915/1.15 bln/1621 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1241/499 mln/1630

11:30 am : The S&P 500 is struggling to make its way to a meaningful gain after pulling up from its morning lows. That has it stuck near the unchanged mark.

Meanwhile, commodities are sporting healthy gains, which have taken the CRB Commodity Index to a 0.9% gain. Much of that is owed to a rebound in oil prices, which are now up 0.9% to $73.10 per barrel. Oil prices have spent most of the morning oscillating.

Gold prices are also faring quite well. Gold contract prices are up a considerable 1.2% to $957.40 per ounce. Earlier this morning gold prices climbed above $960 per ounce, which marked a three-week high.DJ30 -27.29 NASDAQ +8.59 SP500 -0.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 992/1.03 bln/1527 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1383/439 mln/1462

11:00 am : The S&P 500 has made its way back to positive ground after falling to a 0.3% loss. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial average is still mired by weakness and trading with a loss, but the Nasdaq has successfully spent the entire morning trading with a gain. Still, all three major indices are below the levels that they set in the early minutes of the session.

Semiconductor stocks continue to ride high, however. That has the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 2.4% in its best single-session performance in one month. Intel (INTC 20.40, +0.93) and Marvell Tech (MRVL 15.50, +0.87) are the primary drivers behind the strength exhibited by semiconductor stocks (+3.6%) and semiconductor equipment stocks (+0.6%), thanks to upbeat announcements from the pair.

Insurers are also faring well this session, with multiline insurers up 3.9%. Their strength comes largely as a result of continued buying in once beaten down names like AIG (AIG 53.94, +6.10). Shares of AIG are up for their ninth consecutive session, during which time they have gained approximately 130%. Such an incredibly sharp move in such a short time has had many short sellers taking a position against the stock, but with momentum taking it higher, short sellers have been forced to cover, which has only fed the frenzy around the stock.DJ30 -17.76 NASDAQ +9.68 SP500 +0.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 992/898 mln/1478 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1372/387 mln/1429

10:30 am : October crude oil traded in positive territory overnight and extended gains when pit trading opened, pushing crude to morning highs of $73.52 per barrel. Shortly after hitting highs, crude reversed and fell sharply into negative territory and to new lows of $72.26 per barrel. In recent activity, crude is 0.6% higher at $72.89 per barrel.

October natural gas chopped around the unchanged line overnight, but began falling sharply ahead of pit trading and recently hit morning lows of $3.027 per MMBtu. Currently, natural gas is trading 4.2% lower at $3.07 per MMBtu.

The US Dollar Index is lower this morning, contributing to price support in precious metals.

After trading modestly higher overnight, December gold and September silver spiked to morning highs at the open of pit trading to $964.60 per ounce and $14.865 per ounce, respectively. Gold is currently 1.1% higher at $957.90 per ounce, while silver is 3.6% higher at $14.725 per ounce. DJ30 -34.69 NASDAQ +8.22 SP500 -1.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1010/695.7 mln/1411 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1237/311.3 mln/1501

10:00 am : Stocks continue to descend from the impressive heights that they climbed to in the first few moments of trade. The selling effort has been broad-based, leaving only the financial sector (+0.3%) and the tech sector (+1.2%) in positive territory.

Though the mood among equity investors has soured, Treasuries remain under pressure. In turn, the benchmark 10-year Note is currently down 8 ticks, which has lifted its yield back up toward the 3.5% mark.

Early movers: Trading up -- ARUN +18.4%, SCSS +17.7%, SVA +15.4%, AIG +14.4%, EURX +13%, OVTI +10.6%, STM +10.5%, BPOP +9.3%, NZ +9.1%, ELON +8.8%, TIF +8.3%, PSUN +8%; Trading down -- ALTH -10.4%, IMMU -7.6%, ZSL -6.5%, TYP -6.1%, NWSB -4.3%DJ30 -24.04 NASDAQ +14.22 SP500 +0.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1176/465 mln/1120 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1276/219 mln/1389

09:45 am : The major indices made a sharp, upward move in the first few minutes of trade, but they have since reversed course as they come under a sudden bout of selling pressure. Stocks are still in positive territory, though.

Early gains are most impressive among large-cap tech issues, thanks to better-than-expected earnings from Dell (DELL 16.64, +0.99), an upside earnings surprise and upside outlook from Marvell Tech (MRVL 15.74, +1.11), and an upbeat revenue forecast from Intel (INTC 20.36, +0.89). Their strength has helped the Nasdaq shake free of its recent fits of relative underperformance.DJ30 +5.89 NASDAQ +18.05 SP500 +2.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1291/330 mln/925 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1563/167 mln/1057

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +20.50. News that personal income and spending for July were largely in step with expectations has been met with an apparent indifference by premarket participants. Instead, this morning's focus has been pinned on the momentum that stocks have managed to generate after making a rebound midway through the previous session. Several upside earnings surprises, specifically from tech outfits Dell (DELL) and Marvell Tech (MRVL), and a strong revenue forecast from Intel (INTC) have only attracted additional buying interest to bolster the market's bullish bias. As such, stocks continue to head toward a strong start for the session as they look to log their sixth weekly gain in seven weeks.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +17.50. Strong gains are being made in Europe, which is helping to support a strong bias ahead of the U.S. open. Currently, Germany's DAX is up 1.2% amid strength in Bayer and engineering giant Siemens (SI). As for France's CAC, it is up 1.3% as advancing issues outnumber decliners by 9-to-1. L'Oreal is a leader, but Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) is also providing support after being upgraded by analysts at JPMorgan. Banks and natural resource outfits are leading Britain's FTSE to a 1.0% gain. As such, Barclays (BCS), BP PLC (BP), Rio Tinto (RTP), and Xstrata are primary leaders. In economic news, the United Kingdom's economy's second quarter GDP was revised to show a year-over-year decline of 5.5%, which is essentially in-line with the expected 5.6% decline. Meanwhile, Eurozone economic confidence advanced to 80.6 in August. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index and Japan's Nikkei both tacked on 0.6%. Investors factored in a win for Japan's opposition Democratic Party in a major election. In economic news, Japan's unemployment rate reached a record 5.7% in July. The rest of the session was largely lackluster, though. Still, Casio Computer outperformed, while NEC and Hitachi (HIT) gained amid merger talks. Kyocera (KYO) and Canon (CAJ) also gained. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 0.7% lower as Chinese stocks dropped amid liquidity concerns. However, BOC Hong Kong jumped afer posting a lower-than-expected drop in interim earnings. China Telecom (CHA) gained after its quarterly profit beat analysts' expectations. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 2.9% lower after mainland's banking regulator has given local banks verbal instructions that they must not rush into end-of-the-month lending.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.30. Stock futures have gone largely unchanged in the wake of the latest dose of economic data. Personal income for July was flat, which is a bit below the 0.1% increase that was widely expected, but up from the 1.1% decline that was registered in June. June's reading was revised higher from the 1.3% decline that was originally reported. As for personal spending, it increased 0.2% in July. Economists expected as much, following a 0.6% increase in June. The June reading was originally reported as a 0.4% increase. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures were up 0.1% month-over-month, as expected. Core PCE increased 0.2% month-over-month in June.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.30. The previous session's rebound has extended into this morning's premarket trade so that stock futures trade with a solid lead over fair value. The positive tone has been reinforced by better-than-expected earnings from tech outfits Dell (DELL) and Marvell (MRVL), along with retailers J. Crew (JCG) and Tiffany (TIF). Strong gains overseas are also providing support to broader-market bias. Still on tap, though, are personal income and spending data (8:30 AM ET) and the final consumer confidence reading from the University of Michigan (10:00 AM ET).

06:37 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.50.

06:37 am : Nikkei...10534.14...+60.20...+0.60%. Hang Seng...20098.62...-144.10...-0.70%.

06:37 am : FTSE...4917.05...+47.70...+1.00%. DAX...5541.59...+71.30...+1.30%.

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