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 Post subject: August 26th Wednesday 2009 Emini ES points +17.00
PostPosted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 3:30 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=286

As mentioned all week...this week is family week (spending extra time with spouse and kids) which means I'll be doing very little trading. As for today, didn't feel too good (must be something I ate at the fair yesterday) but did get in some decent trades although I missed a great trade entry (Long position) that should have resulted in +10 points instead of +1.75 points (see log at above link).

The new markets of summer 2009 still doing it's thing...strong movement in the morning that's followed by a lot of low volatility tight trading range to then have at least one decent volatility spike in the last hour of trading.

FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their interest in trade signals while ignoring the impact of their trading habits/routine or personal lifestyle. If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +17.00 Emini ES points

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Stocks Eke Out New Highs
The Dow just manages to stretch its win streak to 7 sessions in a choppy day. New home sales rise more than expected.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: August 26, 2009: 4:10 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks struggled Wednesday afternoon, as investors welcomed positive reports on housing and durables goods, but remained on the sidelines after pushing the market to 2009 highs in the previous session.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added a few points, according to early tallies, closing at its highest point since Nov. 4. The S&P 500 (SPX) index ended just above unchanged, squeaking out its highest close since Oct. 6. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) was also little changed, ending at its highest point since Oct. 1.

The Dow has now gained for seven consecutive sessions, pulling out a decent summer rally.

After such a run, stocks were vulnerable to some choppiness Wednesday, despite the encouraging reading on new home sales.

"This was a very positive report for the housing market," said Jane Caron, chief economic strategist at Dwight Asset Management. "It confirms that housing has turned the corner."

She said that a bottoming in housing is one of the reasons she is expecting solid third-quarter GDP growth. Growth will also be driven by inventory rebuilding across many sectors, she said, and a rebound in auto production in the aftermath of the government's Cash for Clunkers stimulus program.

Stocks have been more or less on the rise since bottoming in March. After hitting a more than 12-year low on March 9, the S&P 500 has risen 52%. The only notable pullback was a 7% slide in the run up to the start of the second-quarter earnings period.

On Tuesday, reports showed consumer confidence and housing are starting to recover -- and President Obama nominated Ben Bernanke for a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Housing: July new home sales rose to a 433,000 unit annualized rate from a revised 395,000 unit rate in June. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com forecast sales at a 390,000 unit annual rate.

On Tuesday, an S&P/CaseShiller report showed that home prices rose 2.9% in the second quarter versus the first, the first quarterly rise in three years.

Durable goods orders: Orders for goods meant to last three years or longer rose more than expected in July. According to a Commerce Department report released Wednesday morning, durables rose 4.9% after falling a revised 1.3% in June. Economists thought orders would rise 3.2%.

Oil prices: Light crude oil prices for October delivery fell 62 cents to settle at $71.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices fell after a government report showed crude supplies rose less than expected last week, while gas and distillates - used in heating oil - rose more than expected.

On the move: Vonage Holdings (VG) jumped 36% in unusually active New York Stock Exchange trade, building on its recent gain. The provider of VoIP - Internet based calling - has seen its stock bounce over 300% in the last week on speculation that the company can stay afloat, despite weaker revenue and subscriber growth.

Human Genome (HGSI) also moved on speculation that the company could be bought out by GlaxoSmithKline, its partner on several drugs, according to published reports.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers topped winners seven to six on volume of 780 million shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers seven to six on volume of 1.72 billion shares.

World markets: European markets tumbled in afternoon trading, while Asian markets mostly ended higher, with the Japanese Nikkei rising 1.4%.

Bonds: Treasury prices slipped, boosting the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.44% from 3.43% Tuesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Treasury sold $42 billion of 2-year notes Tuesday and is planning to sell $39 billion of five-year notes Wednesday and $28 billion of 7-year notes Thursday.

Other markets: COMEX gold for December delivery fell 20 cents to $945.80 an ounce.

In currency trading, the dollar rose versus the euro and fell versus the Japanese yen.

Image

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Despite some encouraging economic data, stocks had a listless session and made another lackluster finish. Nonetheless, the major indices managed to eke out a fractional gain, which means that the Dow has finished higher seven straight times.

There weren't any individual leaders for the broader market this session, but retailers (+0.7%) did garner support following better-than-expected earnings and an upside forecast from Dollar Tree (DLTR 50.13, +2.23) and Williams-Sonoma (WSM 17.21, +1.74). Home improvement retailers (+1.4%) also gained, but their strength was owed to an encouraging new home sales report.

Annualized new home sales for July hit 433,000 units, which is well above the 390,000 that had been expected. What's more, the 9.6% month-over-month increase for July is the sharpest rise since 2005. That helped bring inventory down to a 7.5 month supply from an 8.5 month supply.

The better-than-expected new home sales report brought about a broad-based buying effort that took stocks to their best levels of the session. However, gains were capped as buyers seemed unwilling to chase stocks higher. That left the major indices to drift lower.

With participants sitting on the sidelines the rest of the day's news items didn't have much of an impact on the overall market. As such, participants were essentially unimpressed by news that durable goods orders made their sharpest increase in two years by spiking 4.9% in July. Economists had called for a 3.0% increase. Though the increase exceeded expectations, the results were generally the result of the Cash for Clunkers program. Excluding autos, durable goods orders increased 0.8%, which was largely in-line with expectations.

Stocks did drift to afternoon lows following news that an auction of 5-year Treasuries produced a high yield of roughly 2.49% and a bid-to-cover ratio of approximately 2.5. A lack of conviction behind the selling effort enabled the stock market to make its way back to neutral territory.

The lack of interest on the part of participants was also made evident by the lack of trading volume this session. Hardly 1 billion shares traded hands on the NYSE.DJ30 +4.23 NASDAQ +0.20 NQ100 -0.2% R2K +0.1% SP400 -0.1% SP500 +0.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1392/2.08 bln/1262 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1429/1.05 bln/1561

3:30 pm : The sluggish afternoon session continues as the market trades marginally lower.

There was little change in the commodities space this session. Precious metals closed fractionally lower, while moderate losses in crude oil futures led energy commodities modestly lower.

Bearish inventory data this morning failed to have a major impact on crude oil futures prices. Crude oil futures opened the pit session down modestly. They traded between the $71.00 and $71.50 per barrel area for most of the session and closed at $71.38 per barrel, down almost 1%.

Natural gas futures prices closed at the unchanged level after trading modestly lower for most of the session. The September futures, which expire at the conclusion of tomorrow's pit trade, closed at $2.89 per contract.

Precious metals traded fractionally lower this morning as the dollar rose in price. Precious metals pared these losses as the session moved on and the dollar stabilized. December gold futures closed nearly unchanged at $945.80 per ounce. September silver futures closed 0.3% lower at $14.26 per ounce.DJ30 -6.05 NASDAQ -2.31 SP500 -0.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1226/1.71 bln/1422 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1323/772 mln/1641

3:00 pm : Slow news flow has made for a rather uneventful afternoon. In turn, stocks are chopping along listlessly in a relatively narrow range.

Participants await a handful of earnings announcements from retailers. Guess (GES 32.16, +0.76), Coldwater Creek (CWTR 7.22, +0.07), and Jo-Ann Stores (JAS 25.60, +0.73) are due to announce after this session's closing bell. American Eagle (AEO 14.72, +0.38) and Fred's (FRED 13.64, +0.39) report tomorrow morning.DJ30 -5.60 NASDAQ -3.62 SP500 -2.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1209/1.58 bln/1432 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1264/711 mln/1698

2:30 pm : Stocks are trading at the unchanged mark after a recent spurt of buying interest failed to gain momentum. The lack of willingness on the part of both buyers and sellers to step out has stocks chopping along in listless action. The lack of conviction behind any of the market's moves today has kept stocks trading within a relatively narrow trading range.DJ30 +4.15 NASDAQ -1.85 SP500 -0.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1254/1.46 bln/1366 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1367/660 mln/1580

2:00 pm : A sudden spurt of buying interest has stocks making a sharp climb back into positive territory. There isn't any immediate news item to account for the move, but the upturn is broad-based with all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 participating.

Treasuries have responded by making a modest move lower, though. The benchmark 10-year Note is now down 5 ticks.DJ30 +19.34 NASDAQ +0.21 SP500 +0.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1272/1.36 bln/1325 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1406/620 mln/1540

1:30 pm : Stocks slipped to afternoon lows following the release of results from an auction of 5-year Treasuries. The auction produced a high yield of roughly 2.49% and a bid-to-cover of roughly 2.5. The benchmark 10-year Note had a rather muted response and is currently unchanged. DJ30 -12.85 NASDAQ -7.98 SP500 -2.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1073/1.26 bln/1509 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1184/573 mln/1738

1:00 pm : An upbeat new home sales report helped pull stocks out of negative territory in the early going, but fading support left the major indices to drift back into the red. Overall losses remain modest, though.

Market participants were generally unimpressed that durable goods orders for made their sharpest increase in two years by spiking 4.9% in July, but that's largely due to the success of the Cash for Clunkers program. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased a much more modest 0.8%, which was generally in step with expectations.

Stocks did show a much more positive reaction to news that annualized new home sales for July hit 433,000 units, well above what had been expected. The 9.6% month-over-month increase is the sharpest since 2005 and helped bring supply down to 7.5 months from 8.5 months.

The upbeat report gave validity to comments from Dallas Fed President Fisher in an area newspaper that housing is showing positive signs, though a rapid economic recovery shouldn't be expected, especially when it comes to jobs.

With job markets still weak, many shoppers continue looking for bargains at discount retailers. That helped Dollar Tree (DLTR 50.55, +2.65) post better-than-expected quarterly earnings that gave the company enough confidence to issue an upside forecast.

Williams-Sonoma (WSM 17.12, +1.65) also reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings and issued an upside forecast. That report, along with the new home sales data, have shares of the home furnishings company making their best single-session percentage advance since April.

Though retailers (+0.6%) continue showing strength, the broader market has fallen under a fit of weakness that has taken six of its 10 major sectors into the red. However, losses in the broader market remain mild.

Market participants await the latest results from an auction of 5-year Treasuries. Any surprises could cause stocks to break out of their recent trading range, which has spanned only a few points for the past two hours.DJ30 -1.29 NASDAQ -6.30 SP500 -1.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1139/1.16 bln/1438 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1240/526 mln/1663

12:30 pm : Stocks recently made a move toward the neutral line as they pared losses. The Dow has actually eked out a fractional gain, but the broader S&P 500 is still trading with a slight loss. The Nasdaq, on the other hand, continues to lag its counterparts as large-cap tech names like Apple (AAPL 167.27, -2.13), Google (GOOG 468.15, -3.22), and Microsoft (MSFT 24.51, -0.13) come under pressure.DJ30 +0.83 NASDAQ -5.01 SP500 -0.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1117/1.06 bln/1422 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1249/486 mln/1649

12:00 pm : The stock market has managed to limit its losses as its major sectors trade in mixed fashion. Currently, six of the 10 sectors are trading with a loss. The declining ranks include industrials (-1.0%), materials (-0.5%), tech (-0.4%), utilities (-0.4%), health care (-0.3%), and financials (-0.3%).DJ30 -6.65 NASDAQ -6.58 SP500 -1.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1075/946 mln/1467 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1138/443 mln/1714

11:30 am : The stock market is back in negative ground after spending the past hour in positive territory. The reversal has been rather broad-based, though telecom stocks (+1.0%) and utilities (-0.1%) are holding their ground.

Industrial stocks are currently grappling with the most pressure. The sector is down 1.0% as Deere (DE 45.11, -1.20) gets hit.

Energy stocks made up the worst performing sector in the first few minutes of trade, but the sector has since turned its early 1% loss into a fractional gain. The energy sector was buoyed by a relatively bullish weekly oil inventory report that was released one hour ago. Oil prices benefited from some knee-jerk buying that followed the report, but prices have since faltered and are now down 1.3% to $71.10 per barrel.DJ30 -10.89 NASDAQ -5.95 SP500 -2.11 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1126/833 mln/1370 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1172/397 mln/1658

11:00 am : Stocks are still in positive territory, despite a recent fit of pressure that took the major indices back toward the unchanged mark.

However, shares of retailers are up handsomely for the second straight session. With this session's 1.1% advance, the group is up nearly 3% since the close of trading Monday.

The latest round of strength comes in the wake of better-than-expected earnings and an upside forecast from discount retailer Dollar Tree (DLTR 50.47, +2.57). Fellow discounter Big Lots (BIG 26.69, +1.09) provided leadership to the group Tuesday after it posted pleasing results of its own; shares of BIG are helping to drive the group higher once again.DJ30 +16.70 NASDAQ +2.70 SP500 +1.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1257/701 mln/1201 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1369/342 mln/1406

10:35 am : October crude oil traded near the unchanged line overnight but began losing ground ahead of the open of pit trading. Crude continued to fall when pit trading began and hit morning lows of $70.67 per barrel shortly after the open. Ahead of this morning's inventory data crude was trading 1.7% lower at $70.85 per barrel. Following the data, which showed a build of 128K (consensus called for a draw of 1150K), crude rose modestly and is currently 1% lower at $71.32 per barrel.

September natural gas traded similar to crude this morning, putting in its own early morning lows of $2.828 per MMBtu. Natural gas has since regained the majority of its losses, but could not push back into positive territory and is currently 0.7% lower at $2.862 per MMBtu.

The US Dollar Index has been rising since 6:00 a.m. ET and recently spiked to fresh highs, which pushed December gold and September silver into negative territory and to fresh lows of $941.20 per ounce and $14.165 per ounce, respectively. Currently, gold is trading 0.1% lower at $945 per ounce, while silver is trading 0.4% lower at $14.25 per ounce.DJ30 +22.29 NASDAQ +6.73 SP500 +2.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1309/519.9 mln/1102 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1444/268.3 mln/1261

10:00 am : Choppy trading had taken the major indices modestly lower, but the latest new home sales report has sent stocks spiking higher.

New home sales for July came in at an annualized rate of 433,000 units, which is more than the 390,000 that was widely expected. June's data was revised upward to reflect a rate of 395,000 units. Month-over-month, the data reflect a 9.6% increase for July. That was vastly sharper than the 1.6% monthly increase that had been expected. However, June's monthly increase now stands at 9.1%, down from the previously reported 11.0% increase.

Early movers: Trading up -- VG +44.7%, CERS +15.1%, HGSI +15%, MYGN +13.6%, WSM +12.9%, NXST +12.2%, BCSI +10.4%, KIRK +9.9%, RAS +9.3%, ALU +9.1%, DSW +8.4%, LDK +6.4%, CT +6.4%, RZ +6.4%; Trading down -- CCUR -27.2%, ISLE -12.8%, BPI -11.2%, CASM -10.7%, MERC -8.7%, CM -7.4%, TC -6.2%, TRMA -5.8%, HAIN -5.3%DJ30 -13.00 NASDAQ +2.72 SP500 -1.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1130/332 mln/1181 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1113/187 mln/1547

09:40 am : The major indices are contending with a mild fit of selling pressure in the first few minutes of trading. Weakness is most pronounced among energy stocks, which are down 0.9% in the midst of falling oil prices. Oil futures were last quoted 1.3% lower at $71.10 per barrel, but they could see some whipsaw action with the release of the weekly oil inventory report at 10:30 AM ET.

Next up on the day's calendar is the latest new home sales report, however. The report is scheduled for release at 10:00 AM ET and is expected to show annualized sales of 390,000 units for July.

Homebuilders and home improvement stocks are garnering support ahead of the report. As such, Toll Brothers (TOL 22.40, +0.09) and Home Depot (HD 27.48, +0.16) are up modestly.DJ30 -26.61 NASDAQ +1.83 SP500 -4.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 903/151 mln/1281 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 883/102 mln/1689

09:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.50. Stock futures continue to show moderate weakness ahead of the opening bell. The lackluster tone comes after the stock market rolled over from a gain of more than 1% to finish the previous session only modestly higher. Though yesterday's gain, in itself, should prove pleasing to buyers, the unimpressive finish has some wondering if the market's near 17% ascent since mid-July is starting to lose its momentum. That's not to say market pundits are suddenly turning bearish. In fact, many have been calling for a pullback for weeks, but stocks have continually benefited from a supportive bid and profit-chasing, which has often sent short sellers scrambling. There isn't much news out this morning to guide participants and little reaction was shown to a July durable goods orders report, which showed a strong increase for total orders, but a generally in-line increase for orders less autos. New home sales data for July have yet to hit news wires, but that report is forthcoming (10:00 AM ET). Results for an auction of 5-year Treasuries is also on traders' radars; that report is due this afternoon (1:00 PM ET).

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.50. U.S. stock futures continue to trade with relative weakness. A similar theme is undercutting European stocks. As such, Germany's DAX is down 0.5% as declining issues take a near 2-to-1 advantage over decliners. BASF is a primary point of weakness for the German bourse, but Allianz (AZ) is working to provide support. In economic news, Associated Press reports indicated that German business confidence improved for a fifth consecutive month in August. France's benchmark index, the CAC, is also under pressure. It is currently off by 0.2% as financial services outfit BNP Paribas and energy giant Total (TOT) lead losses. Financial firms and natural resource plays are also weighing on Britain's FTSE, which is down 0.4%. HSBC (HBC), Rio Tinto (RTP), Xstrata (XTA), and BP PLC (BP) are leading losses. The tone of trade took on a more positive bend in Asia, where the MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.6% and Japan's Nikkei climbed 1.4% to its highest close in 10 months. Toyota Motor (TM) gained amid news that it will cut global production capacity. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed just 0.1% higher. China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, and Bank of China all settled lower. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed with a 1.8% gain.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.30. Durable goods orders for July increased 4.9%, which is more than the 3.0% increase that economists had come to expect. The larger-than-expected increase follows the upwardly revised 1.3% decline that was registered in June. The July reading is the best in two years, but that's largely due to the success of the government's Cash for Clunkers package. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased 0.8%, which was less than the 0.9% increase that economists had come to expect. Orders less autos for June were revised sharply higher to reflect a 2.5% increase. Stock futures continue to show weakness in the wake of the report.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.80. There aren't many news stories to drive trading this morning, so July durable goods orders data (8:30 AM ET) and July new home sales data (10:00 AM ET) could act as primary catalysts. Results from an auction of 5-year Treasuries (1:00 PM ET) could also stir participants. For now, though, U.S. stock futures are showing moderate weakness as the major European bourses move lower. The major Asian markets made gains, however.

06:19 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.00.

06:19 am : Nikkei...10639.71...+142.40...+1.40%. Hang Seng...20456.32...+21.10...+0.10%.

06:19 am : FTSE...4913.89...-3.20...-0.10%. DAX...5543.56...-13.50...-0.20%.

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