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 Post subject: August 25th Tuesday 2009 Emini ES points +15.00
PostPosted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 7:58 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=285

This week is family week (spending extra time with spouse and kids) which means I'll be doing very little trading. As for today, did only one trade in the a.m. trading session and then went to the big fair (expo) for lots of fun.

The only trade was via the Volatility Trading Report (VTR) as a Short position @ 0935am est and you can read the log at the above link for more details about the profitable trade.

FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their interest in trade signals while ignoring the impact of their trading habits/routine or personal lifestyle. If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +15.00 Emini ES points

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Stocks Touch New '09 Highs
Wall Street advances on Bernanke appointment, signs of stability in the housing market and a rise in the consumer confidence index.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: August 25, 2009: 5:46 PM ET

NEW YORK�(CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks gained Tuesday, extending the recent rally, after reports showed that consumer confidence and home prices are starting to recover.

News that President Obama is nominating Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke for a second term in office added to the positive sentiment.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 30 points, or 0.3% and closed at its highest point since Nov. 4. The S&P 500 (SPX) index gained 2 points, or 0.2% and closed at its highest point since Nov. 6. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 6 points, or 0.3% and the highest close since Oct. 1.

Stocks slipped Monday as investors took a step back after pushing the major gauges to new 2009 highs Friday. But after Monday's brief hiccup, stocks resumed their advance Tuesday.

Stock gains were pretty broad based, with 21 of 30 Dow stocks rising, led by Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), United Technologies (UTX, Fortune 500) and Travelers Companies (TRV, Fortune 500).

But falling oil prices cut into any stock gains, dragging down the influential energy sector. Dow components Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500) and Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) declined and the Amex Oil (XOI) index was off 1%.

Since bottoming at a 12 1/2 year low on March 9, the S&P 500 is up 52% as of Tuesday's close. The pace and breadth of the run up has left many Wall Streeters calling for a big selloff in September and October. But so far, there has been no indication of that.

"Generally, the market keeps moving higher even though so-called experts are saying it's overbought," said Terry Morris, senior equity manager, National Penn Investors Trust. "It's surprisingly strong. Maybe we have turned a corner."

Wednesday preview: Wednesday brings reports on new home sales and durable goods orders, both from the Commerce Department.

New home sales are expected to have risen to a 390,000 unit annualized rate in July from a 384,000 unit annualized rate in June, according to Briefing.com forecasts.

July durable goods orders are expected to have risen 3.2% after falling 2.5% in June. Orders excluding transportation are expected to have risen 1% after rising 1.1% in June.

The weekly crude oil inventories report from the Energy Information Administration is also due in mid morning.

Consumer confidence: Stocks hit the highs of the day just after the 10 a.m. ET release of the August Consumer Confidence index. The index rose to 54.1, surprising economists who thought it would rise to 47.9. The index stood at a revised 47.4 in July.

While the report was significant, it doesn't often correlate to what the consumer ends up doing, said Kim Caughey, senior equity analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group.

"Unemployment is continuing to rise, and that's going to keep the consumer out for the time being," Caughey said. She said inventory rebuilding on the part of corporations will help support the economy in the short term, rather than a rise in consumer spending.

She said the Bernanke announcement was more notable.

Fed: President Obama nominated Ben Bernanke to chair the Federal Reserve for a second term, announcing the reappointment months ahead of the expiration of Bernanke's current term.

The reappointment is expected to receive the approval of the Senate.

"There was a bit of uncertainty around Bernanke's reappointment and the fact that the announcement was made today is driving the gains," Caughey said.

Housing: Home prices rose 2.9% in the second-quarter versus the first quarter, according to an S&P/Case-Shiller report. That's the first quarterly rise in prices in three years and could signal that the housing market has bottomed.

The 20-city index declined 15.4% in June versus a year ago, but that was shy of forecasts for a drop of 16.4% versus a year ago.

Budget: The White House released its deficit and economic forecast. It predicts a federal budget deficit of $9 trillion over the next decade and a deficit of $1.58 trillion in 2009. The $9 trillion is $2 trillion more than what the administration had forecast previously.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its own forecast shortly after the Obama administration. The CBO said the 2009 deficit will total $1.6 trillion.

World markets: European markets rallied, while Asian markets slid, with the Japanese Nikkei losing 0.7%.

Oil: U.S. light crude oil for October delivery fell $2.32 to settle at $72.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after touching a new 10-month high in the morning.

Bonds: Treasury prices inched higher, lowering the corresponding yields, following a positive response to the first of three government debt auctions this week. The rise in prices lowered the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.44% from 3.47% Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Treasury sold $42 billion of 2-year notes Tuesday and is planning to sell $39 billion of five-year notes Wednesday and $28 billion of 7-year notes Thursday.

Other markets: COMEX gold for December delivery rose $2.30 to settle at $946 an ounce.

In currency trading, the dollar rose versus the euro and gained versus the Japanese yen.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers three to two on volume of 1.14 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners seven to six on volume of 1.95 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Stocks spiked to a gain of more than 1% following a better-than-expected consumer confidence reading, but the major indices quickly faltered to settle the session with modest gains. Though that made for an unimpressive finish, the gain helped stocks register a new closing high for 2009.

The major indices hit session highs in the moments following the Consumer Confidence Index for August, which came in at 54.1. That was above the 47.9 that was widely expected and marked an improvement from the upwardly revised July reading of 47.4. However, market participants should remember that consumer confidence is not highly correlated with actual spending.

Despite that consideration, retailers showed steady strength through the entire session. They finished 1.8% higher, led by Big Lots (BIG 25.60, +1.57). The discount retailer reported better-than-expected earnings. Chico's FAS (CHS 12.79, +0.90) also provided support with its own positive earnings surprise. The strength behind retailers helped the consumer discretionary sector finish 1.2% higher, the best of the major sectors in the S&P 500.

In other earnings news, Medtronic (MDT 37.86, -0.14) spent the entire session chopping along in negative territory despite posting in-line quarterly earnings. That detracted from the tech sector, which finished just 0.1% higher.

Financial stocks were a primary source of support to the broader market, though. They led gains for virtually the entire session before settling with a 1.1% gain. Bank stocks and shares of insurers underpinned the sector's strength.

Separately, Ben Bernanke has been nominated to a second term as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. His nomination comes as the U.S. economy continues to contend with considerable macro headwinds.DJ30 +30.01 NASDAQ +6.25 NQ100 +0.3% R2K +0.5% SP400 +0.5% SP500 +5.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1458/1.95 bln/1244 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1830/1.30 bln/1185

3:35 pm : Stocks are holding on to modest gains. The energy sector is the primary laggard, currently down 1.2%. Materials and utilities are the other two sectors trading lower this session.

After trading higher for five consecutive sessions, crude oil futures finished lower. In the early trade, October crude oil futures struggled to break out of negative territory as the dollar traded lower. While the dollar recovered throughout the session, crude oil futures slid lower. The October crude oil futures finished at $72.05 per barrel, down 3.1%.

September natural gas futures sold off at the open of the pit trade to hit a session low at $22.82 per contract. They recovered somewhat late in the session close at $2.89 per contract, down 1.4%.

Precious metals pared early gains as the dollar moved back to the unchanged mark following early weakness. September silver futures were able to hold on to a modest gain of 0.7%, however, closing at $14.29 per ounce. December gold futures hit a session high at $956.30 per ounce early in the pit trade. They gave up most of their gains to finish fractionally higher at $946.00 per ounce.DJ30 +44.29 NASDAQ +7.29 SP500 +3.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1435/1.62 bln/1209 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1854/870 mln/1163

3:00 pm : The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite drifted all the way back to the unchanged mark, but they were able to garner enough support to bounce back to a modest gain. Meanwhile, the Dow found support upon reaching its early morning low-point as it continues to hold a bit of a lead over the other two headline indices.

Small-cap and mid-cap stocks are faring the best this session, though. The Russell 2000 small-cap index is up 0.7% and the S&P 400 mid-cap index is up 0.6%. Both of their gains are broad-based.DJ30 +48.18 NASDAQ +7.26 SP500 +4.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1384/1.44 bln/1287 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1845/926 mln/1163

2:30 pm : Stocks are seeing a bit more seesaw action than they have in recent sessions. Despite the fluctuations, expected volatility is down, according to the Volatility Index (VIX). Specifically, the VIX is currently down 1.5%, but off of its session low, which also marked the lowest level in more than one month.

Underlying action in the broader market remains largely unchanged; financials (+1.4%) and retailers (+2.1%) remain sources of strength, but energy (-1.2%) is a point of weakness. DJ30 +49.81 NASDAQ +7.50 SP500 +4.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1461/1.33 bln/1200 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1945/867 mln/1053

2:00 pm : Materials stocks have joined energy (-1.5%) and utilities (-0.1%) in negative territory. The materials sector is now at a session low, trading with a 0.4% loss.

Meanwhile, the broader market is at an afternoon low, though it isn't quite at the worst level of the session. Still, its gains remain rather solid.DJ30 +39.30 NASDAQ +5.63 SP500 +2.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1519/1.23 bln/1132 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1972/819 mln/1013

1:30 pm : After steadily working to reclaim this morning's gains, stocks encountered another episode of selling pressure, which has taken stocks back near their opening levels for the second time this session.

The latest bout of selling has been particularly unkind to energy stocks, though. The sector is now down 1.2%. Energy stocks were actually the best performers in the previous session, when they advanced 1.3%.

Utilities make up the only other major sector to trade with a loss, though their decline has been contained to a modest 0.2% drop.

Meanwhile, Treasuries have managed to make up lost ground. The benchmark 10-year Note is now trading flat after spending the first half of the session in the red. Its reversal follows news that an auction of 2-year Treasuries produced a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.7 and a high yield of almost 1.12%.DJ30 +48.30 NASDAQ +7.96 SP500 +3.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1543/1.14 bln/1091 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2042/769 mln/912

1:00 pm : Stocks opened with solid gains and spiked to their best levels of the session following a better-than-expected consumer confidence reading, but a flurry of selling pressure has left the major indices trying to reclaim lost ground.

The major indices got a boost this morning as buyers offered a supportive bid after watching gains in the previous session roll over. The tone was solidified by a handful of positive earnings surprises from some smaller retailers. That has helped drive retailers, as a group, to a 2.2% gain.

News that home prices in the S&P/Case-Shiller Index for June were better than anticipated kept the morning's positive bias intact, but it was a surprisingly strong Consumer Confidence Index for August that spurred a concerted buying effort. The advance following the consumer confidence data was short-lived, however. Stocks almost immediately fell back to their opening levels as sellers stepped in. News that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) expects the federal budget deficit for 2009 to reach $1.6 trillion, or 11.2% of GDP, and the unemployment rate next year will average 10.2% didn't rebuff the backslide.

However, leadership from the financial sector (+1.4%) has stocks working to reclaim the gains that they surrendered this morning, but that hasn't stopped sellers from redoubling their efforts midsession as stocks grapple with renewed selling pressure.

Any uncertainty regarding Ben Bernanke's status as Fed Chair was cleared up when President Obama nominated Bernanke to a second term this morning. The announcement didn't have much of an impact on trading since confidence in Bernanke's ability is most aptly reflected by the stock market's enormous rally from March lows.DJ30 +73.99 NASDAQ +13.13 SP500 +7.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1647/1.04 bln/993 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2182/723 mln/773

12:30 pm : Shares of Citigroup (C 4.80, -0.02) and Bank of America (BAC 17.79, +0.44) are among the most active names by volume in the S&P 500, but Hartford Financial (HIG 22.50, +1.45) is among the top names in terms of percent gained this session.

There isn't any particular news item to account for the strength in shares of HIG. However, this session's gains come as a continuation of the strength exhibited by the stock in the previous session, when it benefited from a target price increase from analysts at Deutsche Bank.

Nonetheless, HIG is a primary leader in the financial sector, which is now up 1.7%. Meanwhile, life and health insurers are up 2.7% and multiline insurers are up 3.3%.DJ30 +98.02 NASDAQ +20.16 SP500 +10.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1573/947 mln/1009 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2085/684 mln/852

12:00 pm : The major indices are gradually reclaiming this morning's gains as they ascend steadily. However, they are still off of session highs, which were registered as the S&P 500 made its way to a 1.2% gain.

Financial stocks remain a primary source of support for the broader market. The sector is up 1.5%. It had been up 2.2% at its session high.

Materials stocks have also emerged to provide a boon to the stock market. Materials stocks, as a group, are up 1.0% even though commodities prices are seeing mixed interest. As such, the CRB Commodity Index is up just 0.1%.DJ30 +80.64 NASDAQ +14.59 SP500 +8.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1546/846 mln/1017 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2042/639 mln/866

11:30 am : The major indices continue to sport solid gains. Retailers are among this session's best performers. As a group, retailers are up 2.0%.

Big Lots (BIG 25.97, +1.94) is a primary leader among retailers. The company posted this morning better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter. Big Lots went on to issue in-line guidance. Chicos FAS (CHS 12.91, +1.02) is also higher after unveiling a positive earnings surprise of its own.

Ann Taylor (ANN 13.64, +0.46) is also trading higher after having its target price raised by analysts at Credit Suisse. DJ30 +78.06 NASDAQ +12.77 SP500 +7.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1480/742 mln/1057 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1985/587 mln/882

11:00 am : Stocks rallied to fresh highs for 2009 following a better-than-expected consumer confidence reading, but then suddenly reversed course. Stocks are now back near their opening levels.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has released an estimate stating that the federal budget deficit for 2009 is expected to reach $1.6 trillion. At 11.2% of GDP, that would be the highest ratio since World War II. The CBO also forecast that the unemployment rate next year will peak at 10.4%, while the average unemployment rate for 2010 will be 10.2%.

Though stocks are well off of their highs, gains remain broad-based and solid. Only the energy sector (-0.2%) is trading with a loss.DJ30 +64.47 NASDAQ +10.78 SP500 +6.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1508/619 mln/983 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1972/527 mln/854

10:35 am : October crude oil traded in negative territory overnight, but moved into positive territory shortly before the open of pit trading. Crude was then trading near the unchanged line, but displayed recent volatility, spiking to new session highs of $75.00 per barrel but quickly reversed back into negative territory and is currently 0.9% lower at $73.7 per barrel.

September natural gas traded near the unchanged line overnight and a couple of minutes before the open, natural gas fell sharply to new session lows of $2.819 per MMBtu and is currently trading just above those lows and is down 2.3% at $2.855 per MMBtu.

The US Dollar Index continues trading lower this morning, which was helping create price support in the precious metals group. However, precious metals are currently pulling back, losing early morning gains. December gold is currently trading 0.6% lower at $949.20 per ounce, while September silver is 0.3% lower at $14.245 per ounce.DJ30 +41.49 NASDAQ +5.34 SP500 +2.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1326/514.3 mln/1084 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1807/325.3 mln/985

10:00 am : The Consumer Confidence Index for August came in at 54.1, which is above the 47.9 that was widely expected and marks a sharp improvement from the upwardly revised July reading of 47.4.

Though the August reading is better than what many had expected, market participants ought to keep in mind that consumer confidence is not highly correlated with spending and it offers little predictive power when it comes to forecasting economic growth.

Nonetheless, participants are bidding shares sharply higher in the wake of the report. The upward push has taken the S&P 500 to fresh highs for 2009.DJ30 +106.41 NASDAQ +20.03 SP500 +11.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1518/257 mln/759 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2219/209 mln/511

09:45 am : Stocks are in higher ground, but they have surrendered some of their initial gains.

Similar to the previous session, financials are providing leadership in the early going. The financial sector is up 1.1%, more than any other major sector, as banks and insurers provide support. The two industries were among the hardest hit in the previous session.

Select defensive-oriented stocks are lagging a bit. Utilities are fractionally lower and make up the only major sector to trade with a loss. Meanwhile, consumer staples stocks are up just 0.2%.DJ30 +42.40 NASDAQ +8.16 SP500 +4.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1332/154 mln/822 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1873/138 mln/752

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.30. Stock futures continue to suggest a modest rebound is in order after the stock market rolled over in the previous session and settled just below the neutral line. The positive tone comes amid news that Fed Chairman Bernanke has been nominated to a second term and a better-than-expected batch of home price data from the S&P/Case-Shiller Index. Corporate news has generally been inconsequential to the broader market this morning, but some solid earnings results have helped establish some pockets of strength. Market participants continue to await the latest consumer confidence reading (10:00 AM ET) as well as the results from an auction of 2-year Treasuries (1:00 PM ET), though.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.30. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Composite 20-City Index for June showed a 15.4% year-over-year decline, which isn't as bad as the 16.4% year-over-year decline that was expected. It also marked a softer slide than the 17.0% yearly decline that was registered in May. The broader Home Price Index also showed a better reading than had been expected. It came in with a 14.9% year-over-year decline, which wasn't as bad as the 19.8% yearly decline that was expected following the 19.1% year-over-year decline from May. Stock futures have shown little reaction to the data.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.00. U.S. stock futures continue to trade higher. The positive tone has helped European stocks pare their losses so that they trade with modest gains. As such, Germany's DAX is up 0.3% after spending most of the session in negative ground. Engineering giant Siemens (SI) is a primary leader in the recent advance. Daimler (DAI) is also providing support, but its peer Volkswagen is trading as a primary laggard. In economic news, AFP reported that Germany's economy grew by 0.3% in the second quarter. That's the first time Germany's economy expanded since the first quarter of 2008. In France, the CAC is up 0.3% as its advancing issues take a slight lead over decliners. France Telecom and Vivendi are providing support, but financial outfits AXA (AXA) and BNP Paribas are creating a drag. Financial outfits in Britain are trading in mixed fashion as Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and Barclays (BCS) advance, but Standard Chartered falters. Metals giants Rio Tinto (RTP) and BHP Billiton (BHP) are also trading with weakness. Still, Britain's benchmark FTSE is up 0.3%. The major Asian markets endured losses Tuesday, though their declines weren't enough to offset the gains that they registered Monday. Japan's Nikkei shed 0.8% after gaining more than 3% in the previous session. Fast Retailing led the decline, but Tokyo Electron and Honda Motor (HMC) also weighed on things. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng shed 0.5% after climbing nearly 2% in the previous session. Bank of China and HSBC (HBC) were primary laggards in Tuesday's trade.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.50. Even though there aren't any market movers among the handful of companies that have reported quarterly earnings results this morning, overall results from the group have been solid and have created some pockets of strength and a modestly positive bias as foreign markets falter. Participants are also taking into account news that the FDIC may ease the ability of private equity firms to buy failed banks, according to Bloomberg.com. The June S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (9:00 AM ET) and the August Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET) are the primary items on today's economic calendar. Any surprises could induce some volatility. In other economic news, President Obama is expected to announce the nomination of Fed Chairman Bernanke to a second term, according to The Wall Street Journal.

06:37 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.30.

06:37 am : Nikkei...10497.36...-83.70...-0.80%. Hang Seng...20435.24...-100.70...-0.50%.

06:37 am : FTSE...4886.95...-9.30...-0.20%. DAX...5513.44...-6.30...-0.10%.

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