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 Post subject: August 24th Monday 2009 Emini ES points +8.50
PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 4:44 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=284

It was another conservative trading day for me today after I saw the price action develop into a low volatility tight trading range...that often take traders money and I didn't want to be one of those traders. Thus, I decided to sit on my profits (most of it occurred within the big parabolic price action soon after the open) and then place two trades late in the trading day when a little volatility returned to the markets.

By the way, I do a lot of volatility analysis for understanding the price action and for trade signals. If you're interesting in some trading tips involving volatility analysis or have questions about how to apply it to your own trading...please contact me.

FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their interest in trade signals while ignoring the impact of their trading habits/routine or personal lifestyle. If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +8.50 Emini ES points

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Stock Gains Peter Out
Wall Street retreats after the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq surge to new 2009 highs.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: August 24, 2009: 4:37 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks struggled Monday, as investors turned cautious after pushing the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new 2009 highs.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added a mere 3 points, or 0.03%, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 (SPX) index was little changed. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 2.9 points, or 0.14%.

All three major gauges had risen soundly through the early afternoon, with rising oil prices and continued economic optimism lifting the market. But the gains dissolved in the afternoon, with only the energy sector remaining buoyant.

"We've got a lot of economic news coming out later this week and I think people are kind of waiting to see if the reports confirm the economy is bottoming," said John Wilson, chief technical strategist at Morgan Keegan.

Standouts this week include a consumer confidence report Tuesday, housing reports Tuesday and Wednesday and the revised read on second-quarter GDP growth Thursday.

Crude oil prices touched a fresh 10-month high and lifted oil services stocks, including Dow components Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) and Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500). But big consumer names including Kraft Foods (KFT, Fortune 500), Coca-Cola (KO, Fortune 500) and Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500) all declined.

Stocks rallied Friday after Fed chief Ben Bernanke said the economy is near a recovery and existing home sales posted their biggest jump in two years. That sent the Dow to its highest close since Nov. 4, the S&P 500 to its highest close since Oct. 6 and the Nasdaq to its highest close since Oct. 1.

Stocks have had a surprisingly upbeat summer, as investors have welcomed a number of better-than-expected quarterly results and economic reports.

The S&P 500 is up 52% from the March 9 lows, as of Friday's close. And the Dow is up 45% during that same time period. After a run of that magnitude in such a short period of time, many analysts predict that stocks are due for a pullback, perhaps by as much as 15%. However, the momentum remains up, and with historically high amounts of cash held in mutual funds, the advance doesn't appear to be flagging.

Company news: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD, Fortune 500) gained 8% after Citigroup upgraded the chipmaker to "buy" from "hold." The brokerage said that while AMD is struggling now, its businesses are starting to stabilize.

Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) and Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) shares both surged, reacting to Friday news that the Federal Reserve bought $5.6 billion of Fannie, Freddie and Federal Home Loan Bank debt.

Nokia (NOK) is planning to expand its traditional cell phone business by introducing a mini-laptop early next month. The Nokia Booklet 3G will use Microsoft's Windows software.

Dow component Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500) said its selling its pharmaceuticals business to drugmaker Warner Chilcott (WCRX) for $3.1 billion. P&G shares were little changed, while Warner Chilcott shares surged 32%.

Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers narrowly edged winners on volume of 1.03 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners topped advancers five to four on volume of 1.93 billion shares.

This last week of summer is expected to bring low trading volume as market pros head out on vacation or hold off on making any big changes in their portfolios until the fall.

World markets: Global markets followed the lead of U.S. markets Friday. Asian markets advanced, with the Japanese Nikkei rising 3.4%. European markets rallied.

Oil: U.S. light crude oil for October delivery rose 48 cents to settle at $74.37 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a 10-month high.

Bonds: Treasury prices rallied at the start of a week that brings over $100 billion in government debt auctions. The rise in prices lowered the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.48% from 3.56% Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: COMEX gold for December delivery fell $11.10 to settle at $943.60 an ounce.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the Japanese yen.

Image

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : The broader market was led higher in the early going by financial stocks, but the sector succumbed to an afternoon selling effort that caused it to upend the major indices. In turn, the S&P 500 settled just below the neutral line, but that was still enough to end its winning streak at four.

Stocks in the S&P 500 looked as if they were going to make their fifth straight advance as buyers chased the stock market's recent advances for fear of missing out on future gains. Their rather bullish bias was further supported by broad-based buying overseas and came in the face of a warning from New York University Professor Roubini about a double-dip recession in a Financial Times article.

Though there weren't any economic reports or noteworthy earnings announcements to act as catalysts this session, participants reacted strongly to an upgrade of American Express (AXP 32.67, -0.18) and Capital One (COF 36.45, -0.03) by analysts at Barclays. That propelled consumer staples stocks up more than 3% during the session, but the group finished with a gain of just 0.1% as participants pushed back against financial stocks.

Banks saw the worst of the selling effort. Diversified banks fell 2.3% and regional banks dropped 3.2%. Their weakness took the broader financial sector from a gain of roughly 2% to a 0.9% loss, which was only matched by the consumer discretionary sector.

In contrast, energy stocks were able to preserve most of their strength. The sector finished 1.3% higher, which was the best of any major sector in the S&P 500. Drillers (+1.4%) and refiners (+1.8%) saw some of the best gains, but it was integrated oil (+1.7%) that provided the most leadership, thanks to the market weight of such heavy hitters as Exxon Mobil (XOM 71.30, +1.38). The blue chip proved to be a primary leader in the Dow, which was the only major index to eke out a gain.

Energy stocks were buoyed by continued gains by oil prices, which set fresh highs for the year by making their way to $74.81 per barrel. Oil prices pulled back a bit to settle at $74.37 per barrel, up 0.6%.

Prior to the afternoon pullback the S&P 500 also registered fresh highs for 2009. It remains up almost 5% during the course of the last five sessions and up nearly 17% during the last six weeks. DJ30 +3.32 NASDAQ -2.92 NQ100 -0.2% R2K -0.2% SP400 -0.4% SP500 -0.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1223/2.05 bln/1455 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1543/1.23 bln/1474

3:30 pm : Despite generally stronger commodity prices, materials stocks have succumbed to weakness in the broader equity market to trade with a 0.9% loss, which is among the worst of the major sectors in the S&P 500.

Gold prices had been trading with a healthy gain in the early going, but reversed course midsession and closed 1.2% lower at $943.70 per ounce. Silver prices were able to finish with a gain, though; they settled 0.2% higher at $14.20 per ounce.

Oil prices set fresh highs for the year by making their way to $74.81 per barrel, but they pulled back into the close of pit trade to finish at $74.37 per barrel, up 0.6%. Meanwhile, natural gas prices finished a sharp 4.3% higher at $2.93 per contract.

The buying interest in energy-based commodities has helped energy stocks outperform the broader stock market for virtually the entire session. The energy sector is currently up 1.1%, more than any other major sector.DJ30 +2.79 NASDAQ -2.14 SP500 -0.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1231/1.72 bln/1472 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1525/912 mln/1498

3:00 pm : The major indices have entered into a rather narrow trading range, which has has left them at the neutral line. Depending on which way stocks settle at the end of the day will determine whether the S&P 500 logs its fifth consecutive gain. Such a feat would be the best streak of gains for the S&P 500 this year; it has already advanced for four straight sessions on several separate occasions. The outcome will be determined when the closing bell rings in one hour.DJ30 +10.20 NASDAQ -1.22 SP500 +0.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1280/1.55 bln/1417 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1604/818 mln/1411

2:30 pm : A contest between buyers and sellers has left stocks at the unchanged mark.

With the broader market is moving along the neutral line, underlying action remains mixed as only four of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 remain in higher ground. The list of advancers includes: energy (+1.1%), financials (+0.2%), health care (+0.2%), and industrials (+0.1%).DJ30 +9.97 NASDAQ +0.06 SP500 +0.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1267/1.45 bln/1400 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1615/772 mln/1379

2:00 pm : Stocks are trading along the neutral line after surrendering all of this morning's gains. Notably, financial stocks have recovered from their sudden losses and are now up 0.2%.

Energy stocks remain in strong shape. The sector is up 1.1%, thanks largely to a 0.6% gain in oil prices, which were last quoted at 74.30 per barrel. Oil prices were up more than 1% earlier.

Gold prices have made an even sharper pullback, however. Gold prices were up modestly in the early going, but are now down 1.2%. That reversal has been a drag on materials stocks, which are now down 0.5% after being up roughly 1% in the early going.DJ30 +9.82 NASDAQ -0.28 SP500 +0.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1236/1.36 bln/1424 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1611/723 mln/1371

1:30 pm : After steadily descending from midmorning highs, stocks recently made a precipitous drop that sent all three major indices from positive to negative territory. Losses among the major indices remain fractional, though.

Financials took the brunt of the latest round of selling. The sector is now down 0.3% after being up nearly 2% at its session high.

Meanwhile, Treasuries have further improved their position, which has sent the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note back below 3.5%.DJ30 -3.40 NASDAQ -5.13 SP500 -1.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1213/1.24 bln/1424 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1521/668 mln/1447

1:00 pm : There haven't been any economic reports or noteworthy earnings announcements to act as trading catalysts this session, but participants continue to chase the stock market's recent advances and, in turn, have stocks headed toward their fifth straight gain.

This session's positive bias was set early on as foreign markets moved higher to help support a bid for the broad U.S. indices. Financials emerged to provide a more direct form of leadership in the early going as insurers, diversified financial services firms, and banks showed strength. The strength among banks came in the face of a Reuters report that highly regarded analyst Richard Bove of Rochdale Securities said hundreds more U.S. banks will fail in the current banking crisis.

Consumer finance stocks bounded following an upgrade of American Express (AXP 33.42, +0.56) and Capital One (COF 37.45, +0.97) by analysts at Barclays. Peer Discover (DFS 13.91, +0.40) is following. Visa (V 68.60, -0.40) and MasterCard (MA 204.56, -2.69), which don't lend like AXP and COF, are lagging.

Energy stocks have jumped out to the strongest gain of any major sector, though. Their gains come amid ongoing support for crude oil futures prices, which are up 1.1% to $74.65 per barrel, just shy of the fresh 2009 highs that were registered earlier today.

Though the broader market is currently off of its session high, it continues to trade with solid gains. If the S&P 500 successfully logs its fifth straight gain, it will be the best run by the broad market index this year. However, with stocks up approximately 5% during the course of the last five sessions and up some 17% during the last six weeks, many believe the stock market has come too far too fast. Still, many investors remain fearful of missing out on the potential for future gains and are disregarding cautious comments in a Financial Times article from New York University Professor Roubini, who warned of a double-dip recession.DJ30 +49.27 NASDAQ +5.14 SP500 +5.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1428/1.08 bln/1202 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1937/576 mln/1016

12:30 pm : Stocks have steadied their recent descent, but amid the backtracking the financial sector relinquished its leadership position to the energy sector. Energy stocks are now up 1.9% to trade at a fresh session high, while financial stocks are up 1.5% after being up nearly 2%.

The run up by energy stocks comes as oil prices continue to garner support. Crude oil futures were recently quoted 1% higher at $74.60 per barrel. Earlier this morning, oil prices registered fresh 2009 highs by climbing to $74.81 per barrel. Still, oil prices are nearly half of what they were when at their record highs of $147 per barrel in July 2008.DJ30 +55.17 NASDAQ +8.15 SP500 +6.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1441/990 mln/1167 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1987/532 mln/954

12:00 pm : The major equity averages are steadily descending from their session highs. Still, gains among the averages remain solid.

Of the three headline indices, the Nasdaq Composite is trailing its counterparts by a slight margin, however. Though still in the green, the likes of Qualcomm (QCOM 47.29, +0.00) and Intel (INTC 18.76, -0.13) are creating a bit of a drag on the tech-rich index.

Meanwhile, Treasuries continue to garner support. That has the benchmark 10-year Note up solidly to its best level of the session.DJ30 +54.49 NASDAQ +7.64 SP500 +6.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1474/887 mln/1114 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1984/489 mln/933

11:30 am : Stocks have eased back from their midmorning highs, but they continue to sport healthy, broad-based gains.

All 10 major sectors are in positive territory, though defensive-oriented sectors are lagging on a relative basis. As such, utilities stocks are up just 0.1%, while consumer staples stocks and health care stocks are both up a modest 0.2%, and telecom stocks are up 0.3%. Telecom is still the only major sector that has yet to make a gain this year; the sector is down approximately 5% year-to-date.

As for other defensive holdings, the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note has rebounded from an early loss to trade with a respectable gain. The Note is currently up 8 ticks, which has pushed its yield back toward 3.5%. Meanwhile, gold prices have faltered to trade with a 0.2% loss at $950.90 per ounce after trading in positive territory this morning.DJ30 +66.35 NASDAQ +12.52 SP500 +8.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1561/783 mln/1007 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2056/438 mln/845

11:00 am : Despite some choppy action in the early going, stocks have managed to maintain a positive bias and are even near their best levels of the morning.

The broader market's generally upbeat tone has the S&P 500 heading toward its fifth straight gain. During that time, stocks have managed to advance more than 5%. More impressive is that stocks are now up some 17% during the course of the last six weeks. Such a rapid rise in such short time has many pundits calling for a pullback since they believe that current stock prices are overextended relative to the economy's status.

Still, profit-chasers keep jumping into stocks. Their gusto comes even in the face of warnings from the likes of the notoriously pessimistic Nouriel Roubini, who recently warned of a double-dip recession in a Financial Times article.DJ30 +74.21 NASDAQ +13.66 SP500 +8.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1545/672 mln/979 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2119/365 mln/760

10:30 am : October crude oil hit morning lows of $73.57 per barrel ahead of the open of pit trading. Crude gradually moved higher off lows, hitting morning highs of $74.81 per barrel after the open and is currently trading 0.8% higher at $74.49 per barrel.

September natural gas traded in negative territory overnight, but shortly before the open of floor trading, natural gas popped to early session highs of $2.904 per MMBtu. Natural gas reversed shortly thereafter back near the unchanged line and is currently flat at $2.809 per MMBtu.

The US Dollar Index hit session highs overnight and has since trended lower back near the unchanged line.

December gold chopped around near the flat line overnight and is currently trading flat at $954.3 per ounce, while September silver traded higher overnight and continues trading in positive territory. Currently, silver is 1.5% higher at $14.38 per ounce.DJ30 +66.28 NASDAQ +14.64 SP500 +8.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1572/514.2 mln/888 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2109/270.1 mln/688

10:00 am : Financial stocks (+1.4%) continue to provide leadership, though the broader market has surrendered some of its initial gains in choppy trading.

Energy stocks and materials stocks are also providing support to the broader market. The two sectors are up 1.2% and 0.9%, respectively, as energy prices and commodity prices push higher.

The consumer discretionary sector is at the other end of the spectrum. It is down 0.1% and is the only major sector currently trading with a loss.

Early movers: Trading up -- CHIC +25.8%, MELA +23%, WCRX +20.1%, PURE +18%, CRESY +16.2%, RAS +10.9%, SBGI +10.9%, NPD +10.7%, BANR +9.9%, AMD +7.6%, APPY +7.1%, CPF +7.1%, AIG +6.6%, RTK +6.5%, HIBB +6.4%; Trading down -- RRR -9.1%, VRX -7.6%, ACAS -6.5%, NRP -5.5%, SWHC -5.4%DJ30 +44.59 NASDAQ +8.20 SP500 +6.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1484/324 mln/867 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1950/180 mln/763

09:40 am : The major equity averages are trading with respectable gains in the first few minutes of the session. Particular strength is being shown by financial stocks, which are up 1.6% as a group.

Within the financial sector, diversified financial services stocks are up 2.0%. Included in their ranks are the likes of Citigroup (C 4.89, +0.19), Bank of America (BAC 17.77, +0.31), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 44.12, +0.46). Meanwhile, strong gains by American Express (AXP 33.81, +0.96) and Capital One (COF 37.77, +1.29) have consumer finance stocks, as a group, up 3.0% following the decision by analysts at Barclays to upgrade the pair.DJ30 +53.35 NASDAQ +8.33 SP500 +7.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1491/152 mln/761 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1964/115 mln/617

09:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.30. Solid gains in overseas trading have helped to keep confidence intact among U.S. participants. In turn, their supportive bid has the market trading higher in premarket action and facing its fifth straight gain -- such a feat would mark the best winning streak for the S&P 500 this year. The primary driver behind the solid streak is the willingness of participants to chase stocks out of concern that they will miss out on future gains. Such a trend has sent stocks to their best levels of 2009 and left many pundits calling for a pullback.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.00. Commodities are building on the strong gains that they registered late last week. Currently, gold futures prices are up 0.4% to $956.90 per ounce. That follows a gain of more than 1% this past Friday. Meanwhile, oil futures prices are up 0.5% to $74.25 per barrel in the first few moments of pit trade. The advance comes after oil prices already climbed more than 1% last Friday. In broader terms, the CRB Commodity Index is currently up 0.2%, which should bode well for materials stocks.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.30. Stocks are trading with broad-based gains throughout Europe. As such, Germany's DAX is up a healthy 0.6% as its advancing issues outnumber its decliners by 2-to-1. Financial outfits Allianz (AZ) and Deutsche Bank (DB) are leading the way. In France, fellow financial player Societe Generale is helping drive the CAC to a 0.6% gain. However, investment and banking service provider BNP Paribas is trading as a primary laggard. Meanwhile, banking outfits Barclays (BCS) and Lloyds Group (LYG) are providing leadership to Britain's FTSE, which is up 0.5%. The gains throughout Europe come as Dow Jones reports that Euro-zone industrial new orders posted their strongest monthly gain in 19 months with a 3.1% increase in June. Asian markets finished Monday with strong gains. Japan's Nikkei climbed 3.4% as Kyocera (KYO) and Canon (CAJ) showed leadership. Canon announced plans to help it compete better in certain business ventures. Toyota (TM) managed to log a modest gain, despite news that the company had to issue a recall of cars. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 1.7% higher. Sinopec (SNP) and China Construction Bank reported strong earnings to make solid gains. Meanwhile, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed 2.5% higher.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.50. Quiet, post-expiration trading hasn't stalled the steadily positive bias among participants, who are bidding broader market stock futures to comfortable gains ahead of the morning bell. Vacant earnings and economic calendars will likely make for a slow news day. So, many market watchers will keep close tabs on whether stocks can keep up the bullish bias and log their fifth straight gain despite the lack of possible positive trading catalysts.

06:27 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.50.

06:27 am : Nikkei...10581.05...+342.90...+3.40%. Hang Seng...20535.94...+336.90...+1.70%.

06:27 am : FTSE...4885.48...+34.90...+0.70%. DAX...5496.37...+33.30...+0.60%.

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