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 Post subject: August 21st Friday 2009 Emini ES points +30.75
PostPosted: Fri Aug 21, 2009 6:51 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=283

It was another conservative trading day for me today after I saw the price action develop into a low volatility tight trading range...that often take traders money and I didn't want to be one of those traders. Thus, I decided to sit on my profits (most of it occurred within the big parabolic price action soon after the open) and then place two trades late in the trading day when a little volatility returned to the markets.

By the way, I do a lot of volatility analysis for understanding the price action and for trade signals. If you're interesting in some trading tips involving volatility analysis or have questions about how to apply it to your own trading...please contact me.

FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their interest in trade signals while ignoring the impact of their trading habits/routine or personal lifestyle. If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +30.75 Emini ES points

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Stocks Spike On Recovery Hopes
Optimism from Fed chief Bernanke and jump in existing home sales propel Wall Street to fresh 2009 highs.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: August 21, 2009: 5:50 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks surged Friday, with the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 all ending at fresh 2009 highs, after Fed chief Ben Bernanke said the economy is near a recovery and existing home sales posted their biggest jump in two years.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 156 points, or 1.7%, closing at the highest point since Nov. 4. The S&P 500 (SPX) index added 19 points, or 1.9%, closing at the highest point since Oct. 6.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 31 points, or 1.6%, ending at the highest point since Oct. 1.

Stocks have managed to rally in the last week, despite light trading volume and some worries about the impact of a potential economic slowdown in China. The advance got an additional leg up Friday after the economic news.

In particular, investors welcomed a report that showed existing home sales jumped for the fourth month in a row, rising well beyond forecasts.

"It was basically the highest level in two years and higher even than a year ago before the whole financial crisis, pre-Lehman," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group.

He said it is notable that economic indicators seem to be getting back to levels prior to last September, when the collapse of Lehman Bros. exacerbated an already brewing financial market meltdown.

"The report is basically telling us that the housing market has hit bottom," Hoffman said.

Gains were broad-based, with 29 of 30 Dow shares rising, led by Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), Exxon Mobil (XOM, Fortune 500), Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), United Technologies (UTX, Fortune 500), IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) and 3M (MMM, Fortune 500).

Since hitting a more than 12-year low in early March, the S&P 500 has gained more than 50% as investors have moved out of panic mode and into a sense of cautious optimism.

That optimism is likely to sustain gains in the short term, as it enables investors to draw more cash out of money market funds and put it to work in riskier assets, said Mark Travis, president and CEO of Intrepid Capital Funds.

"We've had an awfully nice run since March and there's still enough skepticism to keep us moving higher," Travis said. "Having said that, prices are not as attractive as they were in March and historically, there's often a bigger selloff."

Housing: Sales of existing homes spiked 7.2% in July versus June and 5% versus a year ago.

Existing home sales for July rose at a 5.24 million unit annualized rate from a 4.89 million unit annualized rate in June, the fastest monthly pace in two years. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected sales to rise at a 5.1 million unit annual rate.

In other economic news, the number of states showing a drop in the unemployment rate tripled in July from June levels, according to a government report released Friday.

Bernanke: The Fed chief said the U.S. economy is on the cusp of a recovery, speaking at the Kansas City Fed Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo. Bernanke said that the pace of the recovery will be slow and that unemployment will remain high.

Hoffman said the speech showed the significance of the coordinated actions taken by the Fed and Treasury and central banks around the world to stem the financial meltdown.

"The recovery is going to be moderate, but without all the actions taken over the last year, I don't think we'd be talking about the economy stabilizing right now," he said. "We'd be talking about how the recession has no end in sight."

Company news: Gap (GPS, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly earnings that topped forecasts in a report released late Thursday. But the clothing retailer also said sales fell from a year ago. Shares gained 3%.

Market breadth was positive and trading volume was light. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers by four to one on volume of 1.48 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by over two to one on volume of 2.28 billion shares.

World markets: In overseas trading, European markets gained. Asian shares ended mixed, with the Chinese market higher and the Japanese market lower.

Oil: U.S. light crude oil for October delivery settled up 98 cents to $73.89 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a 10-month high.

Bonds: Treasury prices tumbled, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.57% from 3.42% Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: COMEX gold for December delivery rose $13.50 to $955.20 an ounce.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the Japanese yen.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:15 pm : All three major indices closed considerably higher Friday. The feat was punctuated by the fact that the advance marked the market's fourth straight gain, which puts stocks at fresh highs for 2009. The latest round of buying came amid continued willingness on the part of participants to chase gains and a better-than-expected existing home sales report.

Stocks started the session with broad-based gains as participants moved money off of the sidelines with the hope that stocks will continue to defy the calls from pundits for a pullback. The willingness of investors to chase recent gains has all three indices at their best levels of the year with the benchmark S&P 500 up nearly 55% from its March low.

A better-than-expected July Existing Home Sales Report led some to posit that the housing market has bottomed, which supported the case for increased buying activity. The report showed that existing home sales increased 7.2% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 5.2 million units, which exceeded the rate of 5.0 million units that was widely expected. Sales have increased in each of the last four months.

The surprisingly strong report helped drive the S&P 500 to its best single-session percentage gain this month and left all of its 10 major sectors with gains in excess of 1%.

Energy stocks (+2.7%) and materials stocks (+2.6%) fared the best. They benefited from the broader market's positive bias as well as a run up in commodity prices, namely oil. Oil prices finished 1.3% higher at $73.83 per barrel, up roughly 65% year-to-date. Gold made one of its best advances of the month by climbing 1.4% to $954.70 per ounce so that it is now just 5% below its 2009 high. The broader CRB Commodity Index advanced 0.9%; it is now up 13% this year.

Retailers also registered strong gains. Gap (GPS 19.48, +0.63) and Aeropostale (ARO 39.55, +3.67) led the way after posting positive earnings surprises for the latest quarter.

Trading volume on the NYSE was the highest it has been all week, but still in-line with longer term averages. That's actually unimpressive, though, since this was an options expirations session, which typically results in exceptionally high levels of trading volume. DJ30 +155.91 NASDAQ +31.68 NQ100 +1.5% R2K +2.3% SP400 +1.9% SP500 +18.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1972/2.27 bln/709 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2459/1.48 bln/577

3:35 pm : Equities recently pushed to session highs. The market is seeing broad-based gains; technology is currently the weakest sector, up 1.5%.

Energy is the best performing sector, up 3.2%. Materials are also outperforming the broader market, up 2.6%.

September natural gas futures were an exception to broader commodities' gains this session as they closed down 4.7% at $2.81 per contract. After faring well early, natural gas futures prices sold off in the afternoon to hit a session low of $2.78 per contract. This is a level natural gas futures have not seen since early August of 2002.

On the other hand, crude oil futures extended their prior session's gain. The October crude oil futures closed at $73.83 per barrel, up 1.3%.

Precious metals rose this session as the dollar moved lower. Both precious metals moved sideways in the afternoon after sizeable gains in the morning portion of the session. September silver futures closed 2.0% higher at $14.16 per ounce. December gold futures closed 1.4% higher at $954.70 per ounce.DJ30 +165.58 NASDAQ +32.44 SP500 +19.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1967/1.90 bln/725 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2442/1.10 bln/600

3:00 pm : Stocks continue to hold steady as participants enter the final hour of the session. The steady gains have left the S&P 500 on track to finish the week some 2% higher, which would mark the stock market's fifth weekly gain in six weeks. That advance has the broad-market benchmark index at 2009 highs.DJ30 +137.01 NASDAQ +24.63 SP500 +16.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1871/1.72 bln/810 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2365/997 mln/654

2:30 pm : Stocks have been in the green for the entire session, but have since become stuck in sideways trade. Though stocks have spent the past few hours moving horizontally, they remain at their best levels of 2009.DJ30 +132.18 NASDAQ +23.32 SP500 +15.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1847/1.62 bln/805 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2359/953 mln/645

2:00 pm : The S&P 500 has spent the last three hours trading within a three point range and the last four hours trading within a four point range. The steady sideways movement has left this session's strong, broad-based gains unchecked.

The positive mood within the equity market also continues to leave Treasuries out of favor.

The U.S. dollar has also fallen out of favor, too. According to the Dollar Index, the greenback is down 0.4%. That has helped prop up commodity prices, though.DJ30 +125.53 NASDAQ +21.78 SP500 +14.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1847/1.51 bln/791 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2349/913 mln/648

1:30 pm : Stocks are trading sideways in a narrow range. The action, or lack thereof, has been a common afternoon pattern for the entire week and has made for rather dull trade, though the major indices continue to sport strong gains.DJ30 +139.21 NASDAQ +25.57 SP500 +16.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1903/1.40 bln/735 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2407/857 mln/574

1:00 pm : Participants continued to show their willingness to chase recent gains by bidding stocks higher in the early going, but it was a better-than-expected existing home sales report that helped drive the stock market to a fresh high for 2009.

Despite starting the week with a 2.4% drop on Monday, stocks are up for the fourth straight session and eyeing a 2% weekly gain. The rebound from Monday's loss has come amid broad-based buying.

This session's broad bid gained strength as participants responded positively to the July Existing Home Sales Report, which showed that existing home sales increased 7.2% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 5.2 million units. That bested the rate of 5.0 million units that was widely expected. What's more, sales have increased each month for the last four months, which hasn't been seen in five years.

All 10 major sectors are in the green, though tech stocks have lagged a bit due to weakness in Intuit (INTU 28.48, -2.37) and Brocade (BRCD 7.47, -0.58). Both have fallen sharply out of favor despite posting better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter. Shares of INTU have also faced pressure stemming from a downgrade by analysts at Credit Suisse. The broader tech sector is still up a strong 1.0%, though.

In other earnings news, Gap (GPS 19.53, +0.68) and Aeropostale (ARO 39.32, +3.44) posted positive earnings surprises for the latest quarter. The pair is providing leadership to retailers, which are up 2.3%.

Trading volume is exceptionally high this session, but that's the result of options expirations. DJ30 +137.99 NASDAQ +25.33 SP500 +15.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1882/1.32 bln/735 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2426/820 mln/536

12:30 pm : Shares of retailers are up 2.2% and are outperforming the broader market, thanks to strength in Gap (GPS 19.53, +0.68), which posted last evening better-than-expected earnings for its latest quarter. In the same vein, Aeropostale (ARO 39.38, +3.50) posted a positive earnings surprise of its own and its shares are surging in their sharpest single-session percentage gain since April.

At the other end of the spectrum, Pacific Sunwear (PSUN 3.50, -0.49) is sinking after issuing downside guidance, which overshadowed a loss that wasn't quite as bad as what had been expected. Shares of PSUN are making their worst single-session slide in three months.DJ30 +142.98 NASDAQ +27.16 SP500 +16.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1901/1.21 bln/690 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2438/779 mln/523

12:00 pm : The major indices are slowly trending back toward session highs, which were set midmorning in the wake of a better-than-expected existing home sales report for July.

Amid this session's upbeat tone, Treasuries have fallen sharply out of favor. The benchmark 10-year Note is down one full point, which has pushed its yield back above 3.5%.DJ30 +141.62 NASDAQ +27.19 SP500 +17.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1911/1.13 bln/665 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2413/738 mln/516

11:30 am : The broader market is largely unchanged from recent levels as industrials (+2.5%), materials (+2.3%), and energy stocks (+2.3%) lead gains. Amid the broad-based advance, 95% of the companies in the S&P 500 are trading higher.

Trading volume is exceptionally high as nearly 700 million shares have already traded hands on the NYSE. At the current pace, trading volume for this session will reach the highest level in roughly two weeks.DJ30 +140.72 NASDAQ +27.24 SP500 +16.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1914/1.03 bln/648 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2399/692 mln/517

11:00 am : The major indices have pulled back from their morning highs, but continue to sport strong, broad-based gains. As such, every major sector in the S&P 500 is up handsomely with nine of the 10 sectors sporting gains of 1% or more.

Tech is the only sector that has failed to extend its gain above 1%. It is still up a strong 0.9%, though.

Tech's relative underperformance stems from weakness in Intuit (INTU 28.64, -2.21) and Brocade (BRCD 7.63, -0.42) even though the pair posted better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter. Intuit's guidance was mixed, though, and the company's stock was downgraded by analysts at Credit Suisse. DJ30 +134.60 NASDAQ +26.63 SP500 +16.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1912/919 mln/604 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2390/638 mln/482

10:30 am : The October crude oil contract, in its first day of trading, was modestly lower in most of its overnight session. Crude began trending higher ahead of the open of pit trading and continued trending higher after the open and recently hit new highs of $74.72 in recent activity. Currently, crude is 1.5% higher at $74.04 per barrel.

September natural gas fell sharply minutes before the open of pit trading to lows of $2.862, but has since rebounded, erasing all of its losses and rose to a fresh high of $2.993. Natural gas has since reversed lower and is at the unchanged line at $2.944 per MMBtu.

December gold was modestly higher ahead of the open of pit trading and spiked ~$10 per ounce at the open to early morning highs of $959.90 per ounce and is currently 1.3% higher at $953.9 per ounce. September silver is tracking gold this morning, hitting its own highs of $14.29 early this morning and is currently 2.0% higher at $14.16 per ounce.DJ30 +127.57 NASDAQ +24.12 SP500 +15.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1870/733.1 mln/579 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2385/550.7 mln/426

10:00 am : Stocks began ticking lower ahead of the latest existing home sales report, but the report's better-than-expected results have induced a surge in buying. That has stocks at their best level of the morning.

According to the July existing home sales report, annualized sales hit 5.2 million. Economists, on average, were expecting a sales rate closer to 5.0 million following the rate of 4.9 million that was originally registered in June. Based on the data, July existing home sales increased 7.2% month-over-month, which was better than the 2.1% monthly increase that was widely expected.DJ30 +95.37 NASDAQ +14.08 SP500 +11.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1739/469 mln/581 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2260/430 mln/466

09:45 am : The stock market is making strong gains in the early going. Gains are broad-based as all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 push higher.

Gains are strongest in the materials sector, which is up 1.6% as the broader market attracts buyers and commodity prices kick higher. Gains by commodities have the CRB Index up 0.5%.

Tech is lagging in the early going, though. The sector is up just 0.1%.DJ30 +54.71 NASDAQ +10.45 SP500 +7.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1662/360 mln/606 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2215/380 mln/470

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.50. There isn't much in the way of market-moving news out this morning, but participants could get a catalyst in the existing home sales report, which is due at 10:00 AM ET. Participants will also be paying close attention to a speech from Fed Chairman Bernanke at 10:00 AM ET. For now, though, buyers continue to chase the market's recent gains and are propping up stocks ahead of the opening bell. In turn, stocks look as if they will progress toward their fourth straight gain as they overcome the week's sharply lower start. Trading volume during the last few sessions has been remarkably low, leaving some to question the conviction behind recent advances, but volume is expected to spike with this session's options expirations.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.00. Stock futures continue to trade higher, but commodities are also garnering support. Gold prices have spiked 1.8% to $957.60 per ounce. That's the best single-session percentage gain this month. Oil prices are also up substantially. In the first few moments of pit trade, crude oil futures are up nearly 1.4% to $73.90 per barrel. In turn, shares of materials outfits like Newmont Mining (NEM) are up nearly 3% to $41.16 per share ahead of the opening bell and shares of energy giant Exxon Mobil (XOM) are up nearly 1% to $69.14 per share in premarket action.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.30. U.S. stock futures continue to garner support, while the major European bourses trade significantly higher following news that output from the euro zone's private sector stabilized in August after 14 months of contraction. Germany's DAX is up 1.6%, near its session high. Its advancing issues outnumber its decliners by nearly 4-to-1. France's CAC is also up 1.6% and trading near session highs as 90% of its components sport gains. Energy giant Total (TOT) is a primary leader. Energy outfits are also providing leadership to Britain's FTSE, which is lagging a bit, but is still sporting a solid 1.1% gain. As for Asia, Japan's Nikkei shed 1.4% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 0.6%. Exporters weighed on the Japanese index, but banks dragged the Hang Seng lower amid news that Chinese banking regulators are considering rules that could crimp loan expansion by excluding subordinated debt from its inclusion in bank capital. However, strong earnings from Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Shenzen Development Bank led China's Shanghai Composite to a 1.7% gain.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.80. A strong close to the previous session has encouraged further buying this morning. The positive tone has also been supported by handsome gains in Europe, where output from the private sector stabilized in August for the first time in more than one year, according to reports. Major Asian markets finished lower, though. U.S. participants await the July existing home sales report, which is due at 10:00 AM ET and could act as a catalyst for trading since it is a widely watched series and is the only item on today's economic calendar. There have been a couple of companies to recently report quarterly results, including Gap (GPS), which topped the consensus earnings estimate to trade more than 2.5% higher at $19.35 per share in premarket action, but the overall batch of results won't do much for the broader market this session.

06:34 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.50.

06:34 am : Nikkei...10238.20...-145.20...-1.40%. Hang Seng...20199.02...-129.80...-0.60%.

06:34 am : FTSE...4812.22...+55.60...+1.20%. DAX...5398.02...+87.10...+1.60%.

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