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 Post subject: August 20th Thursday 2009 Emini ES points +18.50
PostPosted: Fri Aug 21, 2009 2:24 am 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=282

It was a conservative trading day for me today after I saw early in the price action that today was setting up to be a "trend continuation" day in reaction to yesterday's strong rebound after the big GAP down at the open.

The best trade of the day was my last trade and it was a picture perfect entry (seconds before a volatility spike upwards). More importantly, it was via intermarket analysis. If you have questions about the type of intermarket analysis I used...please contact me.

FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their interest in trade signals while ignoring the impact of their trading habits/routine or personal lifestyle. If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +18.50 Emini ES points

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Stocks Stage Advance
Investors welcome signs of optimism in the day's economic news, with bank and tech issues leading the way.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: August 20, 2009: 6:00 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Thursday, with financial and technology shares spearheading the advance as a report showing surprise growth in the manufacturing sector and gains in overseas markets propelled Wall Street.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) climbed 71 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index added 11 points, or 1.1%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 20 points, or 1%.

A worse-than-expected jobless claims report unnerved investors in the early going, but the surprise rise in manufacturing reversed any losses, giving the market support for the rest of the session.

Financial shares were buoyant, with the KBW Bank (BKX) index gaining 2.9%. Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) were among the stocks boosting the index.

AIG (AIG, Fortune 500) rallied 21% after the insurer's new CEO said he expects the company to pay back the billions in loans it has taken to stay afloat.

Stocks managed to advance Wednesday, in the middle of a choppy week on Wall Street. After topping out at fresh 2009 highs last week, investors have struggled to push stocks higher this week. Between the March 9 lows and last week, the S&P 500 rallied 50%.

But bets that the economy is stabilizing have been undercut lately by worries about the jobs market and its impact on the already hard-hit consumer.

"A lot of what we've seen over the last five or six weeks has been the result of investor anxiety about not having jumped in ahead of the upturn," said Tom Hepner, vice president and financial advisor for Ruggie Wealth Management. "But I think the market, on an S&P 500 earnings basis, is ahead of itself."

He said that absent a big rise in revenue growth in the second half of the year --which doesn't seem to be brewing -- the market is wildly overvalued relative to corporate profit forecasts.

Stocks are likely to "crab sideways" over the next few weeks, before suffering a setback in the fall, he said.

Friday brings reports on July existing home sales and July state-by-state employment. Also, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at the Kansas City Fed's economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., starting at 10 a.m. ET. His talk is expected to be about the past year in crisis for the financial markets.

Economy: The day brought a mix of economic news, including reports on manufacturing and the labor market.

The Philadelphia Fed index, a regional reading on manufacturing, climbed to plus 4.2 in August from negative 7.5 in July. Economists expected it to improve to negative 2. Any reading that is positive implies expansion in the sector.

Also on the upside, the Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators (LEI) rose 0.6% in July after rising a revised 0.8% in June. LEI was expected to have risen 0.7%.

But the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment rose last week versus forecasts for a drop. The Department of Labor reported 576,000 new claims last week from a revised 561,000 in the previous week. Forecasts were for claims to drop to 550,000, according to a Briefing.com survey of economists.

A report from the Mortgage Bankers Association said 13% of Americans are either late on their mortgage payments or in foreclosure, a record-high number.

World markets: Asian markets rebounded Thursday, reassuring investors after a plunge in China's main market Wednesday. The Chinese market has lost about 20% over the last two weeks, raising worries about China's economy. China is a big buyer of American and European products.

European markets rallied.

Oil: U.S. light crude oil for September delivery fell 89 cents to settle at $72.94 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after rising nearly 5% Wednesday.

Bonds: Treasury prices gained, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.42% from 3.45% Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: COMEX gold for December delivery fell $2.10 to settle at $942.70 an ounce.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the Japanese yen.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers seven to three on volume of 1.05 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners eight to five on 2 billion shares.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:20 pm : Strength among financial stocks and a couple of positive pieces of data helped the broader market overcome an early fit of weakness that stemmed from a disappointing jobless claims report. In turn, stocks logged their third straight session of gains and are now up modestly week-to-date.

News that initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15 came in above expectations at 576,000 and continuing claims made a slight advance to 6.24 million in the face of expiring unemployment benefits undercut a positive bias in premarket trading. However, stocks were able to shake off the news of stubbornly weak labor markets and managed to make their way higher in the first few minutes of trade.

The initial advance was particularly kind to the financial sector, which gained momentum as bank stocks and insurers garnered additional support. Diversified banks finished 3.0% higher and multiline insurers closed with a 4.3% gain. The broader financial sector finished 2.6% higher, which was more than double the gain had by the next best performing sector (industrials, +1.2%).

The mood among participants improved further following midmorning news that leading economic indicators increased 0.7% in July. Though that was generally in-line with expectations, it marked the fourth straight increase.

A surprise increase in the Philadelphia Fed Index also proved pleasing. The index for August came in at 4.2, which was up from -7.5 in July and bested the -0.2 that was widely expected.

Gains by the financial sector, along with an upbeat Philly Fed Index and leading indicators report, helped drive all 10 major sectors to finish with gains.

The improved tone among broader market participants even helped lift retailers, which were hampered by weakness in shares of Sears Holdings (SHLD 65.00, -8.76) after the company reported a worse-than-expected loss. Weakness was shared by Buckle (BKE 26.84, -1.09) and Limited (LTD 14.35, -0.23), even though both companies posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings. Still, retailers were able to finish 0.4% higher.

Trading volume remains low. Though 1 billion shares exchanged hands in the NYSE for the first time since Monday, that's still well below longer-term averages. The lack of participation in recent sessions brings into question the legitimacy of the stock market's three-session run, which now totals nearly 3%.DJ30 +70.89 NASDAQ +19.98 NQ100 +1.1% R2K +1.3% SP400 +1.1% SP500 +10.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1733/1.98 bln/904 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2221/1.05 bln/811

3:35 pm : Equity markets continue to display strength and have seen a recent spike higher.

Energy commodities are currently up 1.0% this session.

On the other hand, energy commodities were weak this session; led by natural gas.

Natural gas futures fell to a seven year low this session. Following an inventory report which showed a build within the expected range, but lower than consensus, the natural gas futures sold off. This was the nineteenth consecutive weekly build; supplies are now well above the average over recent years. September natural gas fell 5.4% to close at $2.95 per contract.

Crude oil futures fell modestly this session. October crude oil, the new front month contract, fell 1.2% to close at $72.94 per barrel.

Precious metals ended relatively unchanged today. Marginal losses in gold futures were offset by insignificant gains in silver futures. December gold futures fell fractionally to close at $941.70 per ounce. September silver futures rose one penny to close at $13.88 per ounce. DJ30 +76.48 NASDAQ +21.99 SP500 +11.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1635/1.65 bln/990 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2190/720 mln/823

3:00 pm : Just one hour remains in the session and stocks continue to drift along in a narrow range. The sideways movement has been common of the afternoons this week, but it has made for very bland trading.

Still, this session's solid move has stocks up for the third straight session. That has helped the stock market erase Monday's 2.4% drop, which was the largest single-session percentage decline in six weeks.DJ30 +50.93 NASDAQ +14.36 SP500 +8.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1467/1.46 bln/1152 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2044/625 mln/974

2:30 pm : The major indices are largely unchanged from earlier levels as they drift sideways in a quiet afternoon of trading.

Nonetheless, gains remain strong and broad-based as advancing issues outnumber decliners by 3-to-1 in the S&P 500. Financial stocks remain the best performers, though; within the S&P 500's financial sector, advancers outnumber declining issues by 7-to-1.DJ30 +42.17 NASDAQ +14.28 SP500 +7.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1499/1.35 bln/1114 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2052/577 mln/955

2:00 pm : Gains have leveled off so that the major indices are moving sideways in a rather narrow range. Still, the mood among participants remains positive.

While stocks are holding steady, oil prices have recovered. After being down roughly 1% in the early going, oil futures prices are up 0.2% to $72.60 per barrel. Oil's rebound has helped the energy sector pull up from its afternoon lows to trade with a 0.6% gain.DJ30 +49.35 NASDAQ +14.45 SP500 +8.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1466/1.26 bln/1131 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2044/540 mln/940

1:30 pm : Another raft of retailers are set to report after the closing bell. Among those slated are Aeropostale (ARO 36.00, +0.33), Gap (GPS 18.81, +0.20), Pacific Sunwear (PSUN 4.03, +0.24), Wet Seal (WTSLA 3.31, +0.04), and Zumiez (ZUMZ 12.20, -0.31). Retailers, as a group, are currently up a modest 0.2%, while the broader market trades markedly higher near its best levels of the session.DJ30 +50.25 NASDAQ +14.96 SP500 +8.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1449/1.16 bln/1138 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2049/494 mln/925

1:00 pm : Disappointing jobless claims data pressured stocks ahead of the opening bell, but leadership from the financial sector has helped carry the stock market to its third straight gain. That has left the S&P 500 essentially unchanged week-to-date.

Participants were confronted this morning with a disappointing batch of jobless claims data, which featured 576,000 initial claims for the week ending August 15. Economists were expecting something more on the order of 550,000 claims.

Continuing claims also fed fears that the labor market remains extremely weak by rising slightly to 6.24 million even as many lose their unemployment benefits.

However, the shadow cast by the jobs data was lessened by renewed interest in financial stocks. By taking to banks and insurers this session, buyers have pushed the financial sector to a 2.4% gain, which is more than double the gain seen by the next best performing sector (industrials, +1.0%). Leadership from the financial sector has helped take the broader market back up to the ranges where it traded last week.

The tone this session was also helped along by news that leading economic indicators made their fourth straight increase by advancing 0.7% in July. That was generally in step with expectations.

The Philadelphia Fed Index also proved pleasing by registering a surprise 4.2 reading, which is considerably better than the -0.2 that was expected and up sharply from the -7.5 that was registered in July.

Though stocks are trading with solid, broad-based gains, utilities stocks have failed to find much support. The sector is down 0.1% and is the only one still trading in the red.

Shares of retailers have also lagged for most of the session, though they recently made their way to a 0.3% gain. Sears Holdings (SHLD 66.33, -7.43) is weighing heavily on the group after the company reported a worse-than-expected loss. Its weakness has imbued Buckle (BKE 27.19, -0.74) and Limited (LTD 14.19, -0.39), both of which actually posted better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter. DJ30 +43.60 NASDAQ +14.38 SP500 +8.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1441/1.06 bln/1116 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2008/452 mln/941

12:30 pm : Gains remain healthy as stocks gyrate just a few points below session highs.

The advance by the U.S. indices has thus far failed to match that of the major foreign markets. Hong Kong's Hang Seng led the way with a 1.9% gain, followed by Japan's Nikkei, which tacked on 1.8%. In Europe, France's CAC closed 1.6% higher, Germany's DAX added 1.5%, and Britain's FTSE finished 1.4% higher.

The gains by the international indices have lifted the Dow Jones World Index to a 1.1% gain. Excluding the U.S., the World Index has gained 1.4%.DJ30 +36.12 NASDAQ +12.10 SP500 +7.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1375/980 mln/1161 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1966/419 mln/968

12:00 pm : Though its advancing issues have a solid 2-to-1 advantage over decliners, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been lagging its counterparts for virtually the entire session.

Food processing giant Kraft (KFT 28.30, -0.33) has cast a particularly heavy weight on the blue chip index. Kraft's decline comes even though fellow food companies Hormel (HRL 37.60, +0.36) and H.J. Heinz (HNZ 38.60, +0.65) are making solid gains. Both companies reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings and reaffirmed their outlooks.DJ30 +36.73 NASDAQ +9.88 SP500 +7.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1332/881 mln/1192 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1937/375 mln/966

11:30 am : Stocks have eased off of session highs, but continue to trade with solid, broad-based gains.

Shares of retailers are lagging, though. The group is trading with a 0.2% loss as apparel and accessories retailers like Buckle (BKE 27.03, -0.90) and Limited (LTD 14.19, -0.39) weigh on things. Both companies actually posted better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter. Limited went on to issue in-line guidance.

Fellow retailer Hot Topic (HOT 7.42, +0.00) also recently posted its latest results. The company reported a less severe loss than what had been expected, but went on to issue downside guidance.DJ30 +40.96 NASDAQ +12.35 SP500 +8.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1395/784 mln/1079 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1996/333 mln/883

11:00 am : The major indices have extended their morning advance, giving stocks impressive gains. The run up is most impressive among financial stocks, which are now up 2.4% as regional banks climb 2.9% and diversified banks jump 3.5%.

Insurers are also providing support to the financial sector. Life and health insurers are up 3.3%, while multiline insurers are up 5.2% as AIG (AIG 33.93, +7.29) garners support. DJ30 +41.09 NASDAQ +14.28 SP500 +8.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1442/666 mln/976 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2000/281 mln/826

10:40 am : October crude hit morning lows of $73.01 ahead of the open of pit trading. Crude has since moved off its lows in choppy trade and remains in negative territory, 0.7% lower at $73.33 per barrel.

September natural gas traded modestly higher in most of its overnight session, but fell sharply at the open of pit trading to a session low of $3.034 and remained trading near lows, down 2.7% at $3.033 ahead of this week's inventory data. Following the data (build of 52 bcf vs 57 bcf consensus) natural gas is 2.2% lower at $3.051.

The US Dollar Index is choppy this morning, but us trading in positive territory, adding selling pressure in precious metals.

Both December gold and September silver traded near the flat line overnight, but sold off right around the open of pit trading to session lows (Gold $938.50, Silver $13.79). Gold remains near lows, down 0.4% at $940.7 per ounce, while silver is down 0.3% at $13.84 per ounce.DJ30 +34.08 NASDAQ +13.51 SP500 +7.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1470/535.4 mln/884 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2015/214.8 mln/758

10:00 am : Stocks have advanced to their best levels of the morning in reaction to the latest dose of data, which featured a leading indicators report that showed a 0.6% increase. Leading indicators were expected to show a 0.7% increase following the 0.7% increase that was initially registered in June. June's data was recently revised to show a 0.8% increase.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed Index came in at 4.2, which is considerably better than the -0.2 that was expected and up sharply from the -7.5 that was registered in July.

Early movers: Trading up -- ANIK +57.5%, EDAP +35.2%, BONT +25.7%, SOL +15.5%, FRZ +13.2%, FOH +13.1%, DKS +12.7%, GYMB +8.9%, TECD +8.5%, NM +8.1%, BZ +7.7%, RTK +7.4%, LOGM +7.3%, RGS +7.2%, HURN +6.3%; Trading down -- CERS -16.7%, FLWS -15%, PETM -12.4%, CTRN -12%, SHLD -11.5%, STSA -6.6%, NYNY -6.5%, GME -5.5%, SMTC -5.2%DJ30 +40.73 NASDAQ +15.34 SP500 +6.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1389/312 mln/817 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1916/131 mln/735

09:45 am : Despite what had become a relatively negative tone in premarket trading, stocks have managed to make their way to modest gains in the first few minutes of action.

The upward push is being led by the financial sector, which is up an impressive 1.4%. Tech and materials stocks are the next closest sectors by percent gained -- each is up just 0.7%.

Utilities (-0.1%) make up the only major sector in the S&P 500 that isn't currently in positive territory.DJ30 +23.73 NASDAQ +9.44 SP500 +5.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1283/188 mln/794 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1742/87 mln/809

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.50. Stock futures had been pointing to a relatively strong start as momentum from the previous session's rebound and a positive tone in overseas markets carried into premarket trading, but the tone in premarket trading took a turn for the worse after participants were confronted with a disappointing batch of jobless claims. At 576,000, initial claims are up for the second week in a row, while continuing claims remain near historically high levels even as the unemployed begin to lose their benefits. Participants continue to awat July's leading indicators, the Philadelphia Fed Index for August, and second quarter mortgage delinquency data. All of which are due at 10:00 AM ET. Quarterly earnings announcements continue to trickle in, but they haven't had much of an impact on the broader market this morning.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.50. Though the tone among U.S. participants has softened so that stock futures point to a flat start, overseas markets are sporting impressive gains. In Europe, France's CAC is up 1.1% after pulling back a bit. Energy giant Total (TOT) is a primary leader, but steel and metals giant ArcelorMittal (MT) is also providing a strong element of support. Britain's FTSE is sporting a 1.1% gain. Energy and mining outfits are also providing primary leadership to the British index. Rio Tinto (RTP) found favor despite posting a record drop in first-half profits, but that was still in-line with forecasts. The company went on to say it was confident about the future. Meanwhile, bank stocks are also making strong gains after analysts at Credit Suisse resumed their Outperform rating on shares of Barclays (BCS). In economic news, Dow Jones reported that U.K. retail sales beat expectations and hit a 14-month high in July. According to stats, retail sales climbed 0.4% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year. Germany's DAX has advanced 1.0%. Daimler (DAI) is among its primary leaders, but fellow automaker Volkswagen is a primary laggard. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index tacked on 1.2% and Japan's Nikkei climbed 1.8% as it bounced back from a three-week closing low. Energy outfits Inpex and Nippon Oil both climbed. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng advanced 1.9%, though heavyweight China Mobile (CHL) failed to participate after reporting disappointing quarterly earnings. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed a robust 4.5% higher. That helped reclaim some of the 20% loss that the index has incurred in the past two weeks.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.80. Stock futures have pulled back a bit in the wake of the latest batch of jobless claims data. Initial claims for the week ending August 15 totaled 576,000, which was more severe than the 550,000 claims that were widely expected. The latest tally was also above the upwardly revised 561,000 claims that were registered in the previous week. Meanwhile, continuing claims came in at 6.24 million, which is slightly more than the near 6.22 million claims that economists had come to expect. The latest tally is relatively unchanged from the previous week's upwardly revised 6.24 million claims.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.80. Stock futures are taking on a slightly positive bend ahead of the latest batch of jobless claims, which are due at the bottom of the hour. Leading indicators for July follow at 10:00 AM ET, along with the Philadelphia Fed Index for August and second quarter delinquencies data.

06:34 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat.

06:34 am : Nikkei...10383.41...+179.40...+1.80%. Hang Seng...20328.86...+374.60...+1.90%.

06:34 am : FTSE...4751.15...+61.50...+1.30%. DAX...5301.09...+68.60...+1.30%.

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