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 Post subject: August 18th Tuesday 2009 Emini ES points +13.25
PostPosted: Tue Aug 18, 2009 5:00 pm 
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Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=280

As stated yesterday after the close in the #FuturesTrades log...there was a high probability chance for today to be a range day. We got that plus low volatility although the market manage to claw its way to a higher close in comparison to yesterday.

Due to the above information, I reduced my overall position size today along with tightening my stops and taking faster profits which is one of the best trading adaptation for range days with low volatility.

FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.


http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

However, don't be mistaken, I do not believe that profitable trading involves only trade signals and if you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter.

My Trading Performance: +13.25 Emini ES points

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Stocks Bounce On Consumer Hopes
Wall Street rises after two down sessions thanks to Home Depot and Target earnings, but concerns about consumer spending remain.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: August 18, 2009: 4:11 PM ET

NEW YORK�(CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Tuesday after Home Depot's results and forecast and a few bright spots in the day's housing market report gave investors a reason to dip back into the market after a two-session retreat.

After the close, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) reported quarterly sales and earnings that topped estimates.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 82 points, or 0.9%, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 (SPX) index rose 10 points, or 1%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 25 points, or 1.3%.

Stocks slipped for two straight sessions, with the major gauges each losing over 3% on worries that a struggling consumer could pressure an already fragile recovery.

But Tuesday brought some better news from the retail sector and investors used it as an opportunity to move back into the market, albeit on light trading volume.

"There's going to be a lot of volatility day-to-day as we try to figure out how much economic growth we're going to have," said Robert McGee, portfolio manager at CS McKee.

A weaker-than-expected consumer sentiment report Friday and Lowe's disappointing profit report Monday sparked the selling, which followed a roughly five-month advance.

But Tuesday brought better profit news from Dow component Home Depot and discount retailer Target, helping to mitigate some consumer worries. On the downside, the morning's housing market report missed growth forecasts but investors sought out some good news when it came to single-home construction.

The S&P 500 is roughly 45% higher since bottoming March 9. Year-to-date, it's just up 8.5% as of Monday's close.

"I think the rally is a little ahead of what the economy and fundamentals are indicating," McGee said. "We're probably near the highs of the year and could see some give back through the fall."

Retail: Home Depot (HD, Fortune 500) reported earnings of 66 cents per share, versus 77 cents a year ago, as the recession cut into its business. But results were better than expected and the home improvement retailer boosted its full-year earnings outlook. Shares of the Dow component gained 4% Tuesday.

Target (TGT, Fortune 500) reported earnings of 79 cents per share versus 82 cents a year earlier, topping expectations, due to cost cutting and reduced inventories. But revenue and same-store sales slipped, as consumers remained cautious. Shares gained 6%.

Economy: Housing starts and building permits both slipped in July, according to a Commerce Department report released Tuesday. The report surprised Wall Street economists who were looking for an improvement.

Housing starts fell to a 581,000 annualized rate in July from a revised 587,000 in June. Economists thought starts would rise to 599,000, according to a Briefing.com survey.

Building permits, which indicate builder confidence, fell to a 560,000 annualized rate in July from a revised 570,000 annualized rate in June. Economists thought it would rise to a 576,000 annualized rate.

On the upside, the report showed that single-family housing construction rose 1.7% in July, advancing for the fifth straight month and at the fastest pace since October.

A separate report showed that inflation at the wholesale level remains in check. The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.9% in July after rising 1.8% in June. Economists thought it would fall to 0.3%. The core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, fell 0.1% in July versus forecasts for a rise of 0.1%.

General Motors: The automaker is boosting production in the second half of the year and bringing 1,350 of its North American employees back to work as a result of increased demand from the government's Cash for Clunkers program.

Separately, GM (GM, Fortune 500) said it made a deal to sell its money-losing Saab to Swedish luxury sports car maker Koenigsegg.

Other stock movers: Huron Consulting Group (HURN) rallied 34% in unusually active Nasdaq trading after the business consultant reported higher quarterly revenue and earnings that topped estimates.

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings (AXL) rallied more than 94% in unusually active New York Stock Exchange trading after saying it will get up to $210 million in help from former parent GM. The auto parts manufacturer is trying to restructure its debt outside of bankruptcy court.

Market breadth was positive and trading volume was light. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers by almost four to one on volume of 910 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners three to one on volume of 1.73 billion shares.

Bonds: Treasury prices slipped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.51% from 3.47% Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In global trading, European and Asian markets climbed.

U.S. light crude oil for September delivery rose $2.44 to settle at $69.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for December delivery rose $3.40 to settle at $939.20 an ounce.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the Japanese yen.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Stocks made a broad-based rebound from the previous session's sharp decline, but there wasn't much conviction behind the advance since trading volume was exceptionally low. What's more, stocks struggled to break above near-term resistance levels.

The major indices got off to a solid start as many buyers looked to capitalize on lower prices following the previous session's loss, which was the worst in six weeks for the S&P 500. That favored financial stocks, which suffered the worst losses in the previous session by dropping more than 4%. Financials led gains by climbing 1.9% this session.

Other buyers were enticed by better-than-expected earnings and an increased outlook from Dow component Home Depot (HD 26.93, +0.82). Target (TGT 44.32, +3.11) also supported a positive bias by unveiling upbeat results, which drove the stock to its best single-session percentage gain since April and led retailers to a 1.8% gain.

Interest among buyers helped stocks shake off news that housing starts and building permits for July came in at a slower-than-expected annualized rate of 581,000 and 560,000, respectively. Though the July figures were above second quarter averages, they seemed to suggest expectations for the economy have become somewhat overextended.

Meanwhile, overall producer prices for July declined 0.9%, which was more than what had been expected. Core prices made a surprise 0.1% decline, which suggests that inflationary pressures remain restricted.

Stocks were able to finish just a few points shy of session highs. Gains were broad with nine of the 10 major sectors closing in positive territory. Health care (-0.1%) logged the only loss after outperforming in the previous session.

Despite the seemingly strong performance, the S&P 500 struggled to sustain any move above the 990 mark, which marks a near-term point of resistance. Instead, the broad-market index spent the entire afternoon dancing along the line.

Trading volume was exceptionally low this session as fewer than 1 billion shares traded hands on the NYSE. That's well below the approximate 1.5 billion shares that have been averaged during the past 200 sessions and the 1.2 billion shares that have been averaged during the past 50 sessions. The lack of participation this session suggests there wasn't much behind Tuesday's advance. DJ30 +82.60 NASDAQ +25.08 NQ100 +1.4% R2K +1.5% SP400 +1.3% SP500 +9.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1949/1.77 bln/714 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2415/991 mln/610

3:30 pm : The major indices are near their best levels of the session amid broad-based gains. Commodities, on the other hand, recently closed pit trading with mixed results.

Oil prices made solid gains by jumping nearly 3.7% to finish at $69.19 per barrel. Though that's short of the $70 per barrel mark, it is still above oil's 50-day moving average, which was violated in the previous session. As for natural gas, it faltered by shedding little more than 2% to settle at $3.10 per contract.

Gold prices garnered modest support. Prices for the yellow metal settled nearly 0.4% higher at $939.20 per ounce. Silver prices slipped 0.1% to $13.96 per ounce.

Despite the mixed results for commodities, the CRB Commodity Index has managed to climb an impressive 1.0% this session. That move has been helped along by a weaker U.S. dollar, which has decliend 0.5%, according to the Dollar Index.DJ30 +80.86 NASDAQ +25.17 SP500 +9.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1935/1.41 bln/731 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2391/674 mln/623

3:00 pm : The S&P 500 has eased back to trade a fraction below the 990 level that has been a source of so much resistance this session.

With the stock market dancing sideways along the 990 line for the last few hours, action has been rather unexciting. Durng the last three hours the S&P 500 has remained within a narrow four-point range.

Trading volume has been unimpressive this session. Heading into the final hour of trade, just over 600 million shares have exchanged hands on the NYSE. That's roughly half of what has typically traded during recent weeks.DJ30 +81.62 NASDAQ +24.04 SP500 +9.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1917/1.29 bln/735 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2353/615 mln/647

2:30 pm : The S&P 500 had been drifting lower after failing to break above the 990 mark, but it has since recovered to push through the near-term resistance level.

The market's push higher has been a broad-based effort, which has nine of the 10 major sectors trading higher. Six of the sectors are up by 1% or more.

Health care remains the only sector to trade with a loss. The sector is down 0.1% as managed care providers (-0.9%) slip after providing leadership in the previous session. DJ30 +91.82 NASDAQ +26.61 SP500 +10.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1963/1.19 bln/677 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2407/573 mln/582

2:00 pm : Oil prices have made a strong bounce off of early levels and now trade 3.2% higher at $68.90 per barrel. The bounce has taken oil prices back above their 50-day moving average.

The rebound by oil prices has helped boost the energy sector to a 0.9% gain. However, energy stocks still lag the broader market by a small margin.

Materials stocks are faring better. The sector is up 1.3%, just off of its session high.DJ30 +77.39 NASDAQ +22.58 SP500 +8.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1929/1.09 bln/681 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2358/527 mln/623

1:30 pm : The S&P 500 continues to trade with strong gains, but it has encountered resistance at the 990 level on three separate occasions in the last hour and half.

Nonetheless, strength in the broader market has advancing issues outnumbering decliners by more than 3-to-1 in the S&P 500.

With participants angling for stocks, Treasuries have fallen out of favor. The benchmark 10-year Note is down 10 ticks, which has lifted its yield back above 3.5%. The Note's yield fell below 3.5% for the first time this month on Monday.DJ30 +78.52 NASDAQ +23.66 SP500 +9.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1960/1.01 bln/656 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2364/494 mln/606

1:00 pm : Better-than-expected earnings from Home Depot and Target have helped support a broad-based rebound from the previous session's sell-off. In turn, stocks have spent the entire session trading higher, though some relatively disappointing data did undermine things in the early going.

Participants looking to scoop up the previous session's beaten down names have bid higher 80% of the companies in the S&P 500 this session. Stronger-than-expected earnings and a raised outlook from Dow component Home Depot (HD 27.00, +0.89) helped support the positive bias. Upbeat results from Target (TGT 44.39, +3.18) also lent support. With shares of TGT making their best single-session percentage gain since April, shares of retailers are up 1.7%.

Financial stocks have been the best performers this session and are also providing the most leadership to the market's advance this session. Despite its 2.2% gain, the financial sector hasn't been able to carry the S&P 500 above the 990 mark, which marks a near-term point of resistance.

Only health care stocks are lagging this session. The sector is down fractionally after outperforming in the previous session.

Though stocks are trading broadly higher with marked gains, they had to overcome some choppy trading in the early going. The lack of direction in the first few minutes followed news that housing starts and building permits for July came in at a slower-than-expected annualized rate, which seemed to suggest expectations for the economy may have become overextended. Still, the July figures were above the second quarter average.

In other economic news, overall producer prices for July declined more than expected and core prices made a surprise drop. However, the data support the premise that inflationary pressures remain restricted. DJ30 +76.78 NASDAQ +23.26 SP500 +9.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1938/915 mln/627 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2373/455 mln/562

12:30 pm : The S&P 500 recently made its way to 990, but was rebuffed and has since surrendered a few points. Gains remain strong and broad-based, though.

Health care is the only major sector to trade with a loss. The sector is down 0.1% after outperforming on a relative basis in the previous session's episode of widespread weakness.

Such widespread weakness left more than 90% of the companies in the S&P 500 to log losses Monday. The tone of trading has taken a considerable turn since roughly 80% of the companies in the S&P 500 are trading with gains this session. DJ30 +71.27 NASDAQ +21.00 SP500 +8.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1901/837 mln/647 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2354/419 mln/562

12:00 pm : The S&P 500 recently broke out of its morning trading range and is now at a fresh session high. The S&P 500's next technical line of near-term resistance stands around 990.

Financials have been the driving force behind this session's rebound. The sector is up 2.1%, thanks to strength in diversified financial services firms (+2.7%).DJ30 +72.40 NASDAQ +20.54 SP500 +8.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1868/756 mln/659 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2324/381 mln/579

11:30 am : The S&P 500 has made its way back to earlier session highs, which stand near 985. However, the 985 mark has acted as a sort of near-term resistance level for the broad market index.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite has made its way to a fresh session high, thanks to strength in large-cap tech holdings. Their strength is helping the Nasdaq outperform its counterparts. Large-cap tech actually weighed on the Nasdaq in the previous session.DJ30 +71.34 NASDAQ +19.44 SP500 +7.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1842/647 mln/645 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2261/328 mln/605

11:00 am : Stocks in the broader market continue to gyrate, but financials have managed to build on their initial advance so that they now trade with a 1.3% gain. That's still better than any other major sector in the S&P 500.

Airlines are seeing some positive interest this session. After dropping more than 4% in the previous session, the Amex Airline Index is up 1.2%. The rebound comes despite yesterday's news from The Wall Street Journal that the airline industry sees its pain extending beyond the recession. The Amex Airline Index is down nearly 7% year-to-date.DJ30 +47.16 NASDAQ +11.21 SP500 +4.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1586/523 mln/834 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2072/271 mln/771

10:35 am : September crude oil traded higher overnight, but slid in negative territory just ahead of the open of pit trading. Minutes after the open, crude hit morning lows of $66.11, but has since rebounded back into positive territory almost back near overnight highs of $67.80. Crude is currently 0.8% higher at $67.32 per barrel.

September natural gas also traded higher overnight but began erasing its losses before the open of floor trading. Natural gas opened at the unchanged level and has since chopped around in a tight range around this level and is currently 0.1% higher at $3.166 per MMBtu.

The US Dollar Index traded lower overnight and remains modestly lower in recent trading activity.

December gold also traded higher overnight and also gave back some gains along with the energy complex. Gold is currently trading 0.3% higher at $938.90 per ounce, while September silver erased all of its overnight gains ahead of floor trading. Silver opened lower and touched lows of $13.83 minutes after the open and remains near lows in current trading. Silver is 0.2% lower at $13.940 per ounce.DJ30 +44.89 NASDAQ +9.08 SP500 +4.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1441/407.9 mln/917 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1971/221.0 mln/801

10:00 am : Action has become rather choppy in the first leg of trade, but the major indices continue to sport modest gains.

Shares of retailers have surrendered half of their gains, however. The sector had been up more than 1%, thanks to leadership from Home Depot (HD 26.74, +0.63) and Target (TGT 43.51, +2.30) -- both provided pleasing quarterly reports this morning. Retailers, as a group, are now up just 0.5%, though.

Early movers: Trading up -- AXL +45.8%, HURN +31.6%, OCLS +12.3%, NVAX +8.5%, CHINA +7.9%, RAS +7.6%, SVA +7.3%, YGE +6.7%, CENX +6.5%, DAN +6.4%, NCS +6.1%, TGT +5.8%, A +5.7%; Trading down -- GERN -12%, DFG -9.5%, AMCN -7.7%, FMD -6.2%, GLAD -3.5%, EEV -3.4%, FXP -3.3%DJ30 +38.01 NASDAQ +7.50 SP500 +2.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1380/252 mln/877 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1804/150 mln/874

09:45 am : Stocks are off to a relatively solid start, but they are paring some of their initial gains. Still, gains remain broad-based.

Only defensive-oriented sectors are failing to make gains. As such, health care (-0.6%), utilities (-0.6%), and consumer staples (-0.3%) are the three sectors to trade in the red.

Financials are making the best gains in the early going. The sector is up a strong 1.1%.DJ30 +93.55 NASDAQ +10.32 SP500 +2.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1407/142 mln/762 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1836/101 mln/746

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.30. An improved tone among participants has stocks looking to make a modest rebound after they made a sharp drop in Monday's trade. The improved tone comes on the back of better-than-expected earnings and an improved outlook from Dow component Home Depot (HD). A positive earnings surprise from fellow retailer Target (TGT) has also helped bring about a more positive tone in premarket action. However, news that housing starts and building permits for July came in at a slower-than-expected annualized rate has somewhat undermined the bias among participants. Still, the July figures were above the second quarter average. The latest producer price data haven't had much of an impact on morning action, though. The data for July showed further declines in prices, which supports the premise that inflationary pressures will be held in check in the near-term.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.00. U.S. stock futures continue to point to a positive start, though they have pulled back from their morning highs. The broadly positive tone comes as an improvement from the widespread weakness seen in the previous session. The mood among overseas participants has also improved since Monday. That has Britain's FTSE up 0.6%. Banks and miners are leading the way. Rio Tinto (RTP) has found favor after the agreeing to sell a packaging unit to Australia's Amcor. HSBC (HBC) was buoyed by an upgrade from analysts at Goldman Sachs, according to Bloomberg.com. On the economic front, British consumer prices increased 1.8% year-over-year, which was a bit stronger than expected. In Germany, the DAX is up 0.4% as investor confidence in the country climbed more than estimated in August. Deutsche Bank (DB) is a primary leader in the DAX. In France, the CAC has advanced 0.4% with energy and commodities outfits Total (TOT) and Arcelor-Mittal (MT) leading. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index closed 0.2% lower, but Japan's Nikkei added 0.2%. Sumitomo Mitsui Construction jumped after the Nikkei business daily said the contractor has won an order to build a bridge in Vietnam with heavy machinery maker IHI. IHI also gained, though not as impressively. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng advanced 0.8%. HSBC made a recovery, but Air China slipped amid concer that the outfit wasn't prudent in raising its stake in Hong Kong carrier Cathay Pacific. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite churned out a 1.4% gain.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.50. Stock futures have pulled back a bit in the wake of the latest economic data, which featured a Producer Price Index for July that made a month-over-month decrease of 0.9%. That was short of the 0.3% decline that had been expected and was down from the 1.8% increase registered in June. Excluding food and energy, which are often more volatile, producer prices decreased 0.1%. They were expected to increase 0.1% following the 0.5% increase in June. Separately, housing starts hit an annualized rate of 581,000 in July. That was short of the annualized rate of 599,000 that had been widely expected. Housing starts for June were revised modestly higher to reflect an annualized rate of 587,000. Meanwhile, building permits for July hit a rate of 560,000. They were expected to come in at a rate of 577,000 after the previous month's figure was revised upward to 570,000.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.30. Stock futures point to a modest rebound from the previous session's sharp decline, which was actually the worst single-session percentage loss for S&P 500 in six weeks. The improved tone comes on the heels of better-than-expected earnings from Dow component Home Depot (HD), which brought in an adjusted $0.64 per share in the latest quarter. That helped the company lift its 2009 full-year outlook so that it now expects year-over-year earnings comparisons to be flat-to-up 7%. The stock is up more than 3.5% to $27.05 per share in premarket action. Market participants are still waiting for the latest results from retailers Target (TGT) and TJX Companies (TJX). Producer price data for July and housing start and building permit data for July are also due this morning (8:30 AM ET).

06:24 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +14.30.

06:24 am : Nikkei...10284.96...+16.40...+0.20%. Hang Seng...20306.27...+168.60...+0.80%.

06:24 am : FTSE...4684.68...+39.70...+0.90%. DAX...5234.71...+32.70...+0.60%.

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